1866 Odd Coincidence

OK, this is a shorty… just a strange thing I tripped over and have no clue if it means anything or is just a strange coincidence.

I was looking up one thing, and hit another thing, that got me thinking about earthquakes, and…

http://www.thewintersolstice.co.uk/history-of-the-solstice/

An amusing page that has an interest in the Winter Solstice and a has dug up all sorts of trivia about it. Being interested in solstices, and right now thinking about winter, I was wandering along and saw:

1866 The Gossips of Rivertown: December 2010

gossipsofrivertown.blogspot.com …

1866 – The Winter Solstice this year coincides with a full moon–something that only happens every three decades or so. Besides that, the Moon tonight reaches perigee–its closest point to the Earth. The last time these three phenomena– the Winter Solstice, a full moon, and perigee–happened at the same time was in 1866.
Related web pages

1878 The Popular science monthly

books.google.com/books?id=x9sKAAAAYAAJ&pg …

1878 – In 1878 the pain decreased 200 hours, while an equally remarkable fall was shown in the barometric curve. The law of relationship of low pressure and high temperature to the amount of pain and the number of attacks of pain and the number of storms becomes more apparent in considering the quarterly and monthly distribution of pain and storm. “The winter months hold the advantage as pain- producers,” while in quarterly amounts the first quarter, beginning with the winter solstice …
Related web pages

What I’d been looking at was the winter of 1878. That someone had pain relief wasn’t all that useful… but I noticed the entry just above it, too. Full moon, perigee, winter solstice. Gee, were there any earthquakes of note then? Perigee and full moons ought to be increasing stresses. So any time in the lead up to winter would be a time of increasing tidal stresses. Anything happen?

http://duckduckgo.com/?t=ous&q=1866+earthquake

http://www.gendisasters.com/data1/nc/earthquakes/mecklenburg-earthquake-1886.htm
Mecklenburg, North Carolina Earthquake
August 31, 1866

On the last night of August, in 1886, the people of Mecklenburg were shaken up, and many of them alarmed at the convulsions of nature.
[…]
This earthquake was part of the Charleston Earthquake.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1886_Charleston_earthquake

The Charleston Earthquake of 1886 was a powerful intraplate earthquake that hit the area of Charleston, South Carolina. After the 1811 and 1812 quakes in New Madrid, Missouri, it is one of the most powerful and damaging quakes to hit the southeastern United States

http://earthquakes.findthedata.org/d/a/1866

Albania: Narta, Vlore, Kanina 1866
Mexico: Puebla, Veracruz 1866
Greece: Ionian Sea, Amalias, Gargalianoi, Kalamai 1866
Albania: Smokthine, Velca, Vlore 1866
Nepal: Kathmandu 1866
Alaska Peninsula 1866
Albania 1866
Philippines: N Luzon: Laoag 1866

It also looks like San Francisco got whacked on the ‘lead in’ then rumbled some in the following year up to the target date:

http://www.sfmuseum.org/alm/quakes1.html

October 1, 1865
Eureka and Ft. Humboldt badly damaged by an earthquake today.

October 8, 1865
Much of San Francisco was wrecked by an earthquake today.
The chief damages to buildings were to Popper’s Building, corner Battery and Washington streets. The latter building was completely ruined. The California Engine Company’s house, Market and Sansome sts., was severely injured and rendered unfit for occupancy. The chimney in the rear of the Lick House was shaken down. Stoddard’s Warehouse on Beale St. is said to have been thrown out of place several inches. On Third St. from Market to Howard, the window glass was broken in many places. On Washington St. also, the glass appears to have suffered from Dupont St. down to Montgomery. On the marshy lands in the vicinity of Howard and Seventh streets, lamp posts, water pipes and gas pipes were broken and thrown out of position. The ground on Howard St., from Seventh west to Ninth, cracked open, leaving a fissure nearly an inch wide.

October 9, 1865
There was an earthquake shock today, and the earth continued to vibrate for 24 hours.

November 24, 1865
Earthquake felt in San Francisco and Santa Cruz.

December 7, 1865
Light shock of earthquake today.

February 18, 1866
Earthquake felt today.

March 26, 1866
Earthquake at 12:30 p.m. today. It was felt quite severely at Monterey.

June 5, 1866
Rather heavy shock of earthquake in San Francisco today.

August 19, 1866
Earthquake felt in San Francisco and Oakland.

I know this place. We have ‘frequent’ quakes. But that much shaking big enough to do damage and felt variously from Monterey to SF to Oakland was something of significance. Up to Eureka and Humbolt Bay implies a long section of the San Andreas was active in unison.

The above about Charleston is a bit odd, in that one date is 1866 and another is 1886, yet here’s another that talks about 1866:

http://www2.fiu.edu/~draper/ESnotes/quakes.html

Historical earthquakes

1692, Port Royal, Jamaica
1755, Lisbon, Portugal
1811 New Madrid, Missouri
1866 Charleston, S. Carolina

1906 San Francisco
1960 Chile
1964 Alaska
1972 Managua, Nicaragua
1985 Mexico City

1997 Central Italy

So I suspect something happened in 1866, then perhaps again in 1886?

http://geology.about.com/od/quake_preparedness/a/kathmandu-earthquake.htm

The Himalaya was raised by earthquakes, millions of them, and it continues to rise. Major shocks, reaching Mercalli intensity X (“most masonry and frame structures destroyed with foundations”), struck Kathmandu in 1810, 1833, 1866, and most recently on January 16, 1934.

Then there is this set in Greece that runs from 1866 to 1886 as well, odd that:

http://www.drgeorgepc.com/Earthquake2006Greece.html

1866 – A strong earthquake in the Kythera Strait on 6 February 1866 generated a tsunami. There was significant earthquake damage to Kythira The tsunami reached a runup height of 8 meters at Avlemonas on the eastern side of Kythera island and caused damage to houses (Fuchs 1886, Leonhard 1899).

1867 – A strong earthquake on 20 September 1867 with epicenter near Mani in south Peloponisos generated a strong tsunami. There was heavy damage in Peloponisos and slight damage at Kythira. The tsunami affected coastal areas at Kythira, Crete and Cyclades and reached islands in the Ionian and south Adriatic seas (Papazachos and Papazachou, 1997).

1886 – A large, destructive, earthquake on 2 7 August 1886 in SW Peloponnisos generated a local tsunami(Galanopoulos, 1941 and Papazachos and Papazachou 1997). The quake was slightly felt in Kythera (Galanopoulos, 1953). No details about the tsunami are available.

Then, happening near now:

http://www.mediscon.com/earthquakeeruption/index.html

06.01.2010 Costa Rica – Volcanic Eruption at Turrialba
Today, an eruption occurred at Turrialba volcano in Costa Rica. The eruption emitted ash and gas. The volcano had been showing signs of activity since the weekend. Twenty people were evacuated. This is the first eruption at the volcano since 1866.

Which now gets me thinking about volcanoes:

http://www.greek-islands.us/santorini/santorini-volcano-eruptions/

The eruption of 1866

The volcano remained quiescent for only 55 years after the eruption of 1707. Its dormant stage was soon interrupted in 1866 by a series of seismic events which continued over a period of two week. The waters of the eastern shore of Nea Kameni became noticeably warmer and the sea was colored by fluids seeping from the magma that had begun to rise.

The first lavas appeared on February 4th, in the middle of the cove, and two days later the eruptions began, increasing in number and sending lava fragments to a distance of more than 700 meters. The activity continued until October 15, 1870. The quantities of lava produced during this period tripled the size of Nea Kameni. A small strip of sea continued to separate Mikri from Nea Kameni; this area became known as Kokkina Nera (Red Waters).

The observant sorts will see that 1707 and remember that about 1707 there was a great quake in Japan…

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/03/15/1707-hoei-49-days-fuji/

While presently Santorini is making ‘clearing the throat’ rumbles and minor quakes.

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/santorini/seismic-activity-2011.html

So we’ve had this volcanoes go off in the same time frame as a great quake in Japan… now it’s rumbly after a great quake in Japan. I don’t like coincidences… especially when the first time had a great quake near Alaska and had Fuji wake up and erupt… These things are starting to form up in related groups of activity. So watch mount Fuji, Santorini, and Cascadia. If one of them goes in the next dozen years I think we’ve got something…

http://www.volcanolive.com/ofu.html

Ofu-Olosega Volcano – John Seach

Samoa

14.17 S, 169.61 E
summit elevation 639 m
shield volcanoes

The islands of Ofu and Olosega are located in in eastern Samoa. They are separated by a narrow strait, and are composed of two eroded, coalescing basaltic shield volcanoes.

1866 Eruption
A submarine eruption occurred in 1866 at the opposite end of the two islands, 3 km SE of Olosega, along the ridge connecting Olosega with Ta’u Island. On 7th September 1866 residents of the islands of Ta’u and Olosega felt 3-4 earthquakes in an hour. On 9th September 39 earthquakes were felt.

Lately we’ve seen many quakes in the region of the Pacific near Samoa… often located on mountains / volcanic islands.

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/costa_rica/turrialba.html

Turrialba volcano
stratovolcano 3340 m (10,958 ft)
Costa Rica, 10.03°N / -83.77°W
Current status: minor activity or eruption warning (3 out of 5)
last update: 22 Feb 2012 (degassing and incandescent spots at several locations on the West Crater)
Typical eruption style: Explosive.
Turrialba volcano eruptions: 1723(?), 1847(?), 1853, 1855, 1861(?), 1864-65, 1866, 2010 (Jan 4) – ongoing

I note in passing it had a 17xx eruption too…

I also note in passing that Krakatoa had a major event in 1883, in that same general 1866-86 window.

Now all of this is in the “climb out” of the Dalton Minimum ( 1790 to 1830 ) so to the extent there’s a solar cycle angle, we’re likely looking at another 50 to 60 years. But to the extent it’s a lunar cycle? Haven’t looked at that in depth.

Caveats:

Yes, it’s all just numerology and ‘wiggle matching’ of a very poor form. Just noticing that the same numbers / dates cycle around.

Yes, it needs a much more rigorous examination before you can conclude anything.

Yes, it’s likely nothing other than finding what you look for (1866) followed by too wide an acceptance level (what does 1886 have to do with 1866 other than one page that probably has a typo?) and self confirmation bias.

And probably even more.

But I also have to note that the Maunder Minimum was ending just about 1700… running from about 1645 to 1710. And that has a remarkable closeness to 1707… Just saying…

What does it all mean?

Probably nothing. On the other hand, a search for interesting volcanic or earthquake events at the entry into prior grand minimum events would be interesting. If there is some kind of ‘stirring’ that happens at the entry and exit (length of day change is known to happen…) then I could easily see similar events caused by the ‘sloshing’ each time.

That so many interesting dates are so close to each other is also interesting. The same volcano or quake location having the same year, or within a couple of years? When things are supposedly semi random and happening every few hundred years, that close is just surprising.

At any rate, as I’ve said, I’m trying to get a lot of things off my “to do” board and onto at least a ‘sort of done and something posted’ list, so I must end this one here. Leaving a rather large “dig here” of entry / exit from minima vs quakes and volcanoes and ‘date of stop / start’ matches for quakes from those times and volcanoes from those times.

But I’ll not be spending a lot of time sleeping near the shore in the Cascadia region for the next 20 years… or hiking up mount Fuji.

It’s also an odd ‘coincidence’ that folks talk about ‘earthquake weather’ and that is weather that is particularly warm, humid or cloudy / cloying, and still. ( At least, that’s what it means to me). The wiki on it mostly calls it bunk, then says:

Some recent research has found a correlation between a sudden relative spike in atmospheric temperate 2-5 days before an earthquake. It is speculated that this rise is caused by the movement of ions within the earth’s crust, related to the oncoming earthquake. However, in this case the atmospheric changes are caused by the earthquake, rather than causing it.

I don’t care which direction causality runs as long as the correlation is strong… So is there something about the lead in and lead out of a solar grand minimum that causes that kind of event? I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

Subscribe to feed

About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Earth Sciences and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

13 Responses to 1866 Odd Coincidence

  1. R. de Haan says:

    Very interesting dig E.M.

    It triggered me to have a quick scan of historic icelandic eruptions since Iceland over the past 500 years produces 1/3 of all lava emissions world wide.

    Of course the Laki eruptions was on the list and Google led me to most interesting publication a Comet observation that coincided with full moon and the eruption 1783-1784.
    http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=Umxbb68tmZMC&pg=PA478&lpg=PA478&dq=position+moon+1783+1784&source=bl&ots=QGL4OMalUi&sig=5DMhSfUdqq4VkwaWwvtEgU-9I9g&hl=en#v=onepage&q=position%20moon%201783%201784&f=false

    I am now digging through the observations of Nevil Maskelyne for further possible clues
    Title Papers of Nevil Maskelyne
    Covering Dates circa 1706-circa 1843
    Royal Greenwich Observatory Archives
    http://janus.lib.cam.ac.uk/db/node.xsp?id=EAD%2FGBR%2F0180%2FRGO%204

  2. R. de Haan says:

    In any case this all well matches up with the claims made by Prof. Piers Corbyn who always talks about his moon-solar modulations, solar flares and coronal holes responsible for weather events, quakes and volcanic eruptions.

    Have a look at the links I posted about Corbyn and his predictions at your last quake posting.

  3. Power Grab says:

    Things that affect Earth’s experience of the steadiness of the Birkeland currents probably include things like the phase of the moon, the solar cycle, and the presence of comets. They might even have fluctuations in the flow, in and of themselves, perhaps based on our position in the galaxy.

    IMHO, somehow the flow of water underground has its impact on where EQs occur.

    Somewhere, sometime I once read that the reason there are more EQs at the peak and depth of the solar cycle is it’s like how a railroad train behaves. When you first start it moving, there are lots of tugs and jolts between the cars, until a steady speed is achieved. When you start to brake the train, the cars bump into each other until either a slower speed is achieved, or the entire train comes to rest. It’s the change in direction/speed that does it. If you believe in plate tectonics, I guess that works.

    I think there’s also a place for factoring in the size of the planet. I suspect it also fluctuates.

  4. Power Grab says:

    Oh, we have had several days of unseasonably warm/humid weather. And we just logged another EQ this morning.

  5. p.g.sharrow says:

    We just had 2 larger then normal quakes off of Malibu, shallow. Prequakes? for the San Andras stuck at Fort Tejon? pg

  6. w.w.wygart says:

    E.M. I agree with you on this one, “Probably nothing.” Seems to me that you’re mining for correlations here with this 1866 thing. It would take a strong test of statistical significance to get me excited about the idea.

    Having put in a lot of time recently over at Tall Bloke’s, on the subject of the influence of various planets’ gravitational influences on the Sun’s internal dynamics I am very willing to entertain the possibility of the gravitational influence of various celestial bodies upon Earth’s geodynamics; however, you’re going to have to put in at least the effort that Ian Wilson did with his sunspot theory to get me excited.

    http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/03/18/ian-wilson-do-periodic-peaks-in-the-planetary-tidal-forces-acting-upon-the-sun-influence-the-sunspot-cycle/

    BTW, there was also a very interesting post over at TB’s on earthquake predictions at about that time.

    http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/03/20/michele-casati-acapulco-earthquake-successfully-predicted/

    I will even go so far as to entertain the possibility that there may be a geo/solar MAGNETIC dynamic going on with relation to earthquakes on Earth – all you need is some evidence and mechanism.

    Personally, what I find interesting in all of these discussions is how celestial dynamics is coming back into favor in ‘legitimate science’ after about a century of falling out of favor. It amuses me to no end to notice how, linguistically, the discussion starts to resemble a discussion amongst astrologers, which is where I think a lot of the resistance to these theories comes from, it just SOUNDS so Quatrocento.

    W^3

  7. w.w.wygart says:

    E.M. I agree with you on this one, “Probably nothing.” I think you’re mining for correlations here with this whole 1866 thing. It would take a strong test of statistical significance to get me excited about this one.

    I’m not averse to the idea of gravitational interactions between the Earth and various celestial bodies having an impact on geodynamics, I’ve been spending enough time over at Tall Bloke’s recently on the subject of gravitational interactions of various inner solar system bodies on the Sun’s internal dynamics and climate in general that I am very warm to the concept, you just need to put in the effort that Ian Wilson put in with his Spin-Orbit Coupling model of solar dynamics to get me excited.

    http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/03/18/ian-wilson-do-periodic-peaks-in-the-planetary-tidal-forces-acting-upon-the-sun-influence-the-sunspot-cycle/

    BTW, there was a post by Tall Bloke shortly after on the celestial dynamics used in earthquake prediction that you might have missed:

    http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/03/20/michele-casati-acapulco-earthquake-successfully-predicted/

    I will even go so far as to entertain a theory of geo/solar MAGNETIC interactions as having an influence on geodynamics, all you have to do is provide some decent evidence and a plausible mechanism and I’ll give you the time of day.

    What I find fascinating about the whole subject is how, after a century of having fallen out of vogue [or having been actively suppressed], these celestial dynamic theories are starting to come back as a subject of serious investigation in ‘straight’ science. It is endlessly amusing to me to notice how much like a discussion amongst astrologers these ‘new’ theories sound. Maybe that’s why they so fell out of favor, they SOUND so Quatrocento.

    W^3

    PS – this is a second attempt posting this, the first one seem to have disappeared into the aether.

    PPS – Maybe that’s what the aether that all of the nouvelle anti-Michelson–Morley folks are all raving about is actually composed of – all of our lost information – maybe that’s what is driving our expanding universe ;)

    [ No idea why, but these were in the SPAM filter -EMSmith]

  8. w.w.wygart says:

    E.M. I agree with you on this one, “Probably nothing.” I think you’re mining for correlations here with this whole 1866 thing. It would take a strong test of statistical significance to get me excited about this one.

    I’m not averse to the idea of gravitational interactions between the Earth and various celestial bodies having an impact on geodynamics, I’ve been spending enough time over at Tall Bloke’s recently on the subject of gravitational interactions of various inner solar system bodies on the Sun’s internal dynamics and climate in general that I am very warm to the concept, you just need to put in the effort that Ian Wilson put in with his Spin-Orbit Coupling model of solar dynamics to get me excited about it.

    http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/03/18/ian-wilson-do-periodic-peaks-in-the-planetary-tidal-forces-acting-upon-the-sun-influence-the-sunspot-cycle/

    BTW, there was a post by Tall Bloke shortly after on the celestial dynamics used in earthquake prediction that you might have missed:

    http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/03/20/michele-casati-acapulco-earthquake-successfully-predicted/

    I will even go so far as to entertain a theory of geo/solar MAGNETIC interactions as having an influence on geodynamics, all you have to do is provide some decent evidence and a plausible mechanism and I’ll give you the time of day.

    What I find fascinating about the whole subject is how, after a century of having fallen out of vogue [or having been actively suppressed], these celestial dynamic theories are starting to come back [with a vengeance] as a subject of serious investigation in ‘straight’ science. It is endlessly amusing to me to notice how much like a discussion amongst astrologers these ‘new’ theories sound. Maybe that’s why they so fell out of favor, they SOUND so Quatrocento.

    W^3

    PS – this is a second attempt posting this, the first one seem to have disappeared into the aether.

    PPS – Maybe that’s what the aether that all of the nouvelle anti-Michelson–Morley folks are all raving about is actually composed of – all of our lost information – maybe that’s what is driving our expanding universe, garbage in, space-time out. ;)

  9. w.w.wygart says:

    Of course, P. W. Bridgeman once said, “A coincidence is what you have left-over after you apply a bad theory.”

  10. w.w.wygart says:

    E.M. I agree with you on this one, “Probably nothing.” I think you’re mining for correlations here with this whole 1866 thing. It would take a strong test of statistical significance to get me excited about this one.

    I’m not averse to the idea of gravitational interactions between the Earth and various celestial bodies having an impact on geodynamics, I’ve been spending enough time over at Tall Bloke’s recently on the subject of gravitational interactions of various inner solar system bodies on the Sun’s internal dynamics and climate in general that I am very warm to the concept, you just need to put in the effort that Ian Wilson put in with his Spin-Orbit Coupling model of solar dynamics to get me excited: http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/03/18/ian-wilson-do-periodic-peaks-in-the-planetary-tidal-forces-acting-upon-the-sun-influence-the-sunspot-cycle/

    BTW, there was a post by Tall Bloke shortly after on the celestial dynamics used in earthquake prediction that you might have missed: http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/03/20/michele-casati-acapulco-earthquake-successfully-predicted/

    What I find fascinating about the whole subject is how, after a century of having fallen out of vogue [or having been actively suppressed], these celestial dynamic theories are starting to come back as a subject of serious investigation in ‘straight’ science. It is endlessly amusing to me to notice how much like a discussion amongst astrologers these ‘new’ theories sound. Maybe that’s why they so fell out of favor, they SOUND so Quatrocento.

    W^3

Comments are closed.