Sea Ice – Normal

It is important to not be only reactive, only looking at what ‘the other side’ hollers about, only saying “but but but!!!”

Sometimes you need to point out when they have stopped talking about an area, as it puts the lie to their narrative or points out prior absurdities. Even it all you do is say: “LOOK! Nothing is happening!!!”

Right now, that’s sea ice.

I’ve picked a couple of representative charts from the WUWT Sea Ice Page, but there are many more there with similar stories. In particular, the 30% Sea Ice has this year basically on top of the others.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/

So rather than reproduce them all here, I’m just going to stick in a couple of representative samples.

Global Sea Ice from 31 March 2012

Global Sea Ice from 31 March 2012

You will want to click on it to get a very large version, then look at the red line at the bottom. Note that at the very end, just a tiny bit of is is ‘above zero’. We have a positive anomaly. Too much ice ;-)

The sea ice that went away during the peak of our just ended Grand Solar Maximum has already reformed back to normal, plus a tiny bit. As the sun is presently near the maximum of it’s new, more sedate, cycle, for the next several years we’re headed to even colder, and even more ice.

Sea Ice Arctic recent 2 years 31 March 2012

Sea Ice Arctic recent 2 years 31 March 2012

Here we see that the red line at the bottom is imperceptibly below the zero line. -0.23 anomaly. So close to zero as to be irrelevant. Yet it is below zero. Now look up at the ice lines. Oh, they are converging… Now look back to the start of the graph, two years ago. Zero anomaly.

So that’s two years from normal to normal. Yes, a small dip in the middle, but weather is like that. Especially at times of a grand solar maximum.

Sea Ice in the Arctic 31 March 2012

Sea Ice in the Arctic 31 March 2012

Finally, we have a close up. Here we can see the tiny bit by which present sea ice is below the average. We can also see that they are converging fast. The present is is not leaving while historically it did. I’d guess that about mid April we’ll have a convergence. It would take some very odd winds or a heck of a heat wave to stop it.

In Conclusion

NOTHING is happening to Sea Ice. It is entirely un-interesting and without any kind of story to tell at all. And THAT needs a bit of a celebration, IMHO.

Overall, the globe has a tiny bit of excess, but close enough to ‘normal’ for there to be no reason to fret about cold (yet…).

The Antarctic is accumulating ice (sea ice in particular) to a bit of excess. Voyages around the south pole may be a bit more difficult than in recent years, but nothing too bad. The Arctic is so close to normal too that you need a magnified image to see it clearly. Yes, the minimum mid summer will likely still be a tiny bit low (it takes a few years to build up old tough ice, but we are building it up.) So again, nothing at all to worry about. Unless you want to take a boat into the Arctic, then you need to watch out for ice.

Should any Warmista try to bother you about the warmth in North America (in particular in the USA), just say it must be because so many talking heads are at the UN… and ask politely about the Sea Ice… Perhaps saying something like: “Well, the Antarctic is over normal ice, and the Arctic is almost exactly normal, but the ice is forming so fast… Think we’ll have another ice age?” Then take a long slow drink of the beverage to hand while they sputter…

So what is the “negative space” of what the Global Warming Panic is talking about now? I’d say “sea ice extent”. Nothing is happening… so probably a good time to remind them.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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18 Responses to Sea Ice – Normal

  1. tckev says:

    Yes, it’s an unprecedented amount of climatic normality destroying the scaremonger’s argument.

  2. R. de Haan says:

    There never has been anything wrong with sea ice extent in the first place.
    Same goes for sea levels. glacier melt, temperatures, CO2, SO2, Methane, Ozone, fine dust, black soot, acid rain, and all the other scare events that were sucked from the thumb.

    Although I’m always in for a celebration I rather have the party when all the mandates, regulations and laws aimed to curb our fossil fuel consumption have been scrapped.

    Until that happens we are in trouble.

  3. TinyCO2 says:

    I think winter ice extent is slightly misleading as it doesn’t entirely reflect the ice in the Arctic Basin. The ice along Greenland’s coast doesn’t seem to form there but largely drifts down from ice escaping from the Basin. On a ‘bad’ year, less ice may drift out of the Arctic which would indicate a greater retention for the summer. Ice forming in either Hudson bay or the Sea of Okhotsk is largely unrelated to the Arctic Basin. The Bering Sea and Baffin Bay show a mixture of seasonal variation and ice flow out of the Arctic. Unfortunately the ice forming in the Barents Sea and around Svalbard is, I think, a good indicator of Arctic Ice durability. The longer the ice is anchored to the islands of the Arctic the longer it takes to float away. That ice hasn’t connected to Svalbard much at all this winter is a bad sign AFAIK.

    I wish I knew more about the Arctic back in the 30s/40s because it would tell me what ‘normal’ was. I suspect there was a much more durable ‘ice cap’ during the 60s and 70s. I’ve got an atlas published in 1966 that shows three different ice extents. 1) Summer minimum, 2) Winter maximum and 3) Ice cap. The questions I have are – was that ice cap illusory, ie was it assumed to be a different type of ice to that which we see at the edges of the melt, much thicker and in much bigger sheets or was it just as mobile as it is now and they couldn’t tell because they didn’t have satellite? If it was a different quality of ice, did it form after the 30s/40s or was it a relic of the Little Ice Age? If it was a relic then only a very long period of cold could bring it back.

    If there was a big body of ice it would have been much less fragile than current ice because it wouldn’t have broken up and floated out of the gap between Greenland and Svalbard in the same way it does now. So perhaps we have reached a tipping point but from which it is unlikely to get any worse because roughly the same amount of ice will form and float out of the Arctic each year give or take winds and temperature.

  4. R. de Haan says:

    Everything is normal.
    Only our institutions like EPA have gone off the scale and now have reached a state that could be described as “Madness”. Hopefully it’s only temporary madness but I wouldn’t bet on it.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/31/the-epas-mercurial-madness/

  5. pouncer says:

    As promised in 2009. That was that moment, when the tides began to recede, the seas fall, the blazes abate and the dust settle. Surely the light-worker, the wunderkind, the peace bringer deserves the accolades for reversing the devastating trends of the prior decades.

    Or… not.

  6. omanuel says:

    We are working on the start of Climategate – loss of contact with Reality – following the vaporization of Hiroshima on 6 Aug 1945.

    http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB162/index.htm

    http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/

    Reality: The force** that sustains life and Earth’s climate is the same force that creates and destroys our chemical elements.

    Shiva: The force*** that continuously dissolves in the cyclic process of creation, preservation, dissolution of the universe.

    Here is an outline of some of the early events:

    1. Hiroshima vaporized (6 Aug 1945)
    2. World War II ended (14 Aug 1945)
    3. Dr. Kazuo Kuroda analyzed Hiroshima ashes (Aug 1945)
    4. First UN General Assembly meeting (10 Jan 1946)
    5. First UN Security Council meeting (17 Jan 1946)
    6. UN General Assembly adopts first resolution (24 Jan 1946)
    7. Abrupt U-Turn in astronomy and solar science (1946)

    http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/#comment-21

    References:
    ** “Neutron repulsion,” The Apeiron Journal, in press (2012)
    http://dl.dropbox.com/u/10640850/Neutron_repulsion.pdf

    *** Lord Shiva http://www.koausa.org/Gods/God9.html

  7. John F. Hultquist says:

    Again (because I’ve pointed this out over the last three years at other places), the *mean* of a distribution is affected by outliers . . .

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier

    In the third chart you have used (from NSIDC), there is no good reason the average (gray line) is still based on the 1979-2000 numbers. Except the low of 2006-2007 (green/dashed), an *outlier*, and other low years would be included. This will pull the ‘average’ [an arithmetic mean?] down such that the current March 2012 ice extent will be closer to the average. An inconvenient truth.

    Thus, we transition from global warming to climate change to sustainability. Watch the pea under the walnut shell or the shifting of the goal posts or choose another analogy. The idea of wealth redistribution under one world government must not be set back just because temperature and ice refuse to do what they are ordered to do.

  8. R. de Haan says:

    John F. Hultquist says:
    31 March 2012 at 5:21 pm

    You’ve hit the nail on the head John.
    The establishment is taking humanity by the balls, taking control over all our resources including our ability tu burn fossil fuels.
    Absolutely no coincidence with their timing.
    Redistributing wealth (read stealing wealth) when the majority of the baby boomers is in for their well deserved retirement.
    The vicious face of the operation becomes visible now they’ve put food in competition with fossil fuels. This put millions back into poverty and set fire to the entire Middle East. Big famine epidemics are around the corner.

    Unless we stop this this we will be confronted with a very bad outcome that is going to affect all of us as their real objective is to reduce the world population by 6 billion people.

    This is no joke.

  9. u.k.(us) says:

    Well? Say something!

    OK, you asked for it.
    There are some people that may be watching the ice closer than “us”, cus their lives may depend on it.
    From wiki:
    “The Vendée Globe is a round-the-world single-handed yacht race, sailed non-stop and without assistance.[1] The race was founded by Philippe Jeantot in 1989, and since 1992 has taken place every four years.
    As the only single-handed non-stop round-the-world race (in contrast to the VELUX 5 Oceans Race, which is sailed in stages), the race is a serious test of individual endurance, and is regarded by many as the ultimate in ocean racing.”

    “The race starts and finishes in Les Sables-d’Olonne, in the Vendée département of France; both Les Sables d’Olonne and the Vendée Conseil Général are official race sponsors.[4] The course is essentially a circumnavigation along the clipper route: from Les Sables d’Olonne, down the Atlantic Ocean to the Cape of Good Hope; then clockwise around Antarctica, keeping Cape Leeuwin and Cape Horn to port; then back to Les Sables d’Olonne.[5] The race generally runs from November to February; and is timed to place the competitors in the Southern Ocean during the austral summer.”
    ==============================
    Next race is in November,
    Of course, the shortest route is only limited by the sailors nerve (the farther south they venture, the more encounters they have with “growlers” and icebergs while sailing at full speed on auto-pilot at night).

    Lots of cool videos on youtube, and there is an official race website.

    I read a book about the race called ” Godforsaken Sea”, written in 1998.
    Pretty amazing.

  10. Jason Calley says:

    @ u.k.(us) If you are interested in books about sailing, you may want to read “The First Voyage of the Joshua” by Bernard Moitessier. http://www.amazon.com/wiki/Bernard_Moitessier/ref=ntt_at_bio_wiki In 1968-69 he sailed in a single handed non-stop around the world. He was in a reasonably good position to win after most of a circumnavigation, when he had a change of heart and decidedd he did not want the publicity. Instead, he did one more loop around Antarctica to return home to Tahiti. He finished the longest single handed leg in history, over 37 thousand miles in ten months, but retained some measure of privacy.

    Wonderful ship…steel hull, double ended, center cockpit… designed and built for the sea.

    Oh! And if you like Antarctic ice sailing, try “Icebird” by David Lewis. Single handed to Antarctica and back.

  11. u.k.(us) says:

    Jason Calley says:
    31 March 2012 at 9:21 pm
    =====
    Thanks for that info.
    The book I read was about the 1996-97 race.

    In the Southern Ocean, one of the sailors said:
    “There’s no joy here. It’s nature’s version of Beirut”

    It was just an eye-opening read for me, having never been on the Ocean.
    The book , of course, did not fail to mention Moitessier.
    Nor the reasons why some prefer solitude.

  12. Jason Calley says:

    @ u.k.(us)
    Well, you convinced me; I just ordered a copy of “Godforsaken Sea.” :)

    Southern Ocean sailing is different. In “Ice Bird”, Lewis recounts how before he left for Antarctica, he checked one of the few good sources of info available to him at the time, a copy of the Soviet Atlas of Antarctica which he found in Melbourne. In it, he read that he could expect waves of 35 feet (and he was to be in a boat 32 feet in length.) He writes: “Big waves, I thought. But how odd that Russian measured in feet. I looked closer. The wave heights were not in feet at all, they were in metres.”

  13. gallopingcamel says:

    It seems that everyone here understands that the climate is essentially “business as usual”, so let me preach to the converted.

    1. Sea ice. Who cares as it does not affect sea levels? Less is better with sea ice. Remember April 15 and the Titanic!

    2. Melting continental ice. The maximum melt rate shown in the latest IPCC, AR5 drafts is 280 Giga-tonnes per year. At that rate it will take 100,000 years to melt the 30 million Giga-tonnes in Antarctica alone.

    3. Sea level rise (hat tip to the IPCC AR5 ZODs) has been rising by an average of 1.7 mm/year since 1850, right on the average for the last 5,000 years.

    4. Surface temperature. Remains much cooler than for most of the Holocence and positively chilly compared to the PETM:
    http://joannenova.com.au/2010/02/the-big-picture-65-million-years-of-temperature-swings/

    I apologize for pricking the bubble of scary stories from Hansen, Schmidt, Romm and their fellow hysterics.

  14. nzrobin says:

    Did somebody mention a celebration – a party maybe. Imagine a party without some CO2 in the drinks – just wouldn’t be the same, no bubbles in the beer and coke.

  15. Interesting, yes.
    If climate is 30 years mean, what would that Arctic ice extent (or area) mean for 1979-2008?
    Could somebody make the ice graph considering it?

  16. Agile Aspect says:

    John F. Hultquist said (31 March 2012 at 5:21 pm.)

    +1

  17. R. de Haan says:

    nzrobin says:
    1 April 2012 at 11:07 am
    “Did somebody mention a celebration – a party maybe. Imagine a party without some CO2 in the drinks – just wouldn’t be the same, no bubbles in the beer and coke.”

    Didn’t you know CO2 is a poison? You’re playing with your life drinking that stuff, (LOL)

  18. Pascvaks says:

    Motion is a ‘proof’ of life, but it is also a proof of death. It all depends on who you’re wondering is alive or not, and who/what is actually doing the moving. Let’s compare a nation to a body. If the nation is healthy there are various motions that can be used as proofs of life and health. If the nation is not healthy, dying or dead, there are various motions that can indicate that too. The maggots may be quiet in this area, but they seem more numerous in many other areas, I think the body is barely with us still, that it will soon pass on to the hereafter. Alas, poor Yorick! I knew him, Horatio!

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