No, not Holland the country, Mr. Hollande the candidate.
As expected, French socialist Francois Hollande has won the first round of the presidental poll. But populist extremist parties have also brought in record results.
The first signs of Francois Hollande’s victory came from France’s overseas territories where already around noon the first results came out. Voters in Martinique and Guadeloupe confirmed what had been widely expected: Socialist Francois Hollande is the clear favorite for winning the French presidency and taking over from Nicolas Sarkozy at the Elysée Palace.
Hollande almost through
Hollande got around 29 percent in the first round of voting and thus came ahead of Sarkozy who merely mustered 26 percent. The incumbent though can claim a somewhat less flattering win – according to an opinion poll he is the least popular president of France’s recent history.
“It really would take a lot to give Sarkozy another chance to win re-election after all,” Henrik Uterwedde of the Franco-German Institute think tank told DW. He’s sure that unless there’s a major blunder by Hollande, he’ll win the presidency in the runoff vote on May 6. “It would be incredibly difficult for Sarkozy to catch up. I see Hollande as the clear favorite.”
So being in a bucket of warm spit, they have decided that a hop into the fire would be an improvement…
France indeed is faced with tough challenges at the end of Sarkozy’s term. Unemployment stands at a 20-year record of 10 percent, public debt is getting out of hand and the trade deficit is massive. The next five-year term is likely to be difficult and many French voters do not necessarily trust Hollande to do that much of a better job. “The result does not suggest a glowing pro-Holland sentiment either.”
The article goes on to say the Communist backed candidate picked up 12%.
Let’s see… Wasn’t France one of the countries being held up as being in good enough condition to help bail out Spain, Greece, Italy, …
20 year record unemployment. Debt out of control. Trade deficit ‘massive’. Hmmmm…. Exactly how will the typical Socialist policies, of more massive public debt and suppression of capitalist productive enterprise with its emphasis on export goods that actually sell; help in any way? I can see how it will get unemployment down (by mandating the present small pie be shared more broadly) but that doesn’t fix the basically floundering economic state.
Well, on the good side; at least it may mean a quicker end to the EU as France and Germany squabble more. A new French Nationalism coupled with a Socialist “take care of the people” is unlikely to embrace more bailing out Spain and more supporting Germany.
Then again, this is France, so who knows what it really means. Sarkozy had made a lot of promises he could not keep, and was supportive of the Franco-German Alliance (that is largely, IMHO, what the EU had become) as a way to rope the rest of Europe into a new Holy Roman Empire (just without the Holy part…)
As of about 10 minutes ago, CNBC World covered the European market open. They have a ‘heat map’ with green squares for up companies and red squares for down. A sea of red on the board, not much green. We’ll see if this keeps up (sometimes the first few minutes of a market can take wide swings, sometimes both ways, before stabilizing into a trend).
The Asia part of the map is looking a bit red too. ( They have a geographies map by country as well as the heat map).
So, all in all, the world is voting that “Things are not so good, eh Jacques?”
How one can think that adopting socialist policies can fix an economy broken by too many socialist policies is a bit beyond me. But they are French, after all. (Per my parents, I have some small percentage of French somewhere in my ancestry, but I’ve lost track of exactly which bit… Something like 1/8 or 1/16. I presume that’s enough to permit me my small joust at the French…)
BMW expects lots of growth of sales… to China. Guess who has the money and wants to buy hot cars? Follow the money…
And Spain announces that Repsol will sue anyone attempting to invest in the Argentine nationalized bit that it used to own… Well. Guess it’s OK for the Colonial Powers to nationalize things, but not the ex-Colonies. Personally, I’d rather everyone followed the Rule Of Law and recognized Property Rights. Maybe it’s a European thing… I just wish such ideas were not setting in over here.
I was going to post a link to the story, but a web search turned up a few dozen suits over different bits, so it looks like a lawyer driven trade war starting up:
While CNBC is also reporting that the Dutch are declining to implement the budget cuts being demanded by Brussels.
Sure looks to me like the EU breakup is accelerating. Maybe I’d been giving it too long to last. But this Holland is one of the last 4 EU countries with a AAA rating, and they are rejecting the process? Maybe I need to rethink the pace in light of more wide spread pressures and exponential rise?
We also get to remember that this Euro-Influenza will almost certainly reflect in the US markets when they open, too. There will be a bit of ‘safe haven’ aspect helping hold American markets up in comparison, but the overall impact will be negative.
I guess the only real question is how long will Chinese purchases of Mercedes and BMWs keep propping up Germany? As the last one standing, it will have ever more “issues” showing up. China is slowing down. In slowdowns, the purchase of cars gets ‘put off’. Even by the very new rich.
This is a static capture of the state of the ETFs traded in the USA, so does not capture the drop of today as our markets are not open yet.
We see that RSI started having “lower lows” after a “near 80 experience” some time back. DMI went “red on top” start of the month. MACD went from ‘weaving sideways’ to a more clear ‘red on top, steep down’ back at the start of the month though the first indications of bad was middle of last month, crossing below the zero line a bit after that. All saying “Be Out” of France. Spain looks even worse, and got there sooner. Germany has even taken a hit lately.
EWQ is the France ETF. EWP is the Spanish one. EWG for Germany.
Not a lot of reason to be in the EU (then again, I’ve been ‘out of there’ for a while now.) No signs of bottoming either. It also looks like the rate of decay of a given ticker is proportional to their debt / GDP issues and their unemployment / balance of trade issues. As those are not all that hard to predict, for basic trend, its useful to recognize.
On CNBC World (now an hour into the day) only a very few boxes on the first line of the heat map (out of many lines) has any green. Trend clearly down.
Well, hang onto your hats, boys and girls, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride…