A Rather Remarkable Old Article

OK, I was just going to read about old extreme weather events. Then I found this one article in this posting that really woke me up. It just has so much right.

I was reading this page:

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/bad-weather/

and down in the middle was this newspaper article from 1979. We’re talking before the whole Global Warming Scare thing. Back when the New Little Ice Age was the thing. And it ‘calls the ball’ pretty much exactly. I can only wonder if Hansen et. al. read this, and realized it was right, then decided to craft an ‘exploit’ of that wisdom…

Not only does it say when warming and cold would happen, but it says it is cyclical. They also use a clever way of dating isotope changes. Oxygen isotopes, but in tree rings. AND CO2 isotope composition. I’m just going to link to the images Steven Goddard has up at his site, but do read his whole article for more interesting bits.

The article at Google Newspapers





Just amazing. I think finding the works those folks published is a big “Dig Here!”… They’ve been right for over 40 years. It needs more visibility, IMHO. Even the 2000 date is only off by a year or two from the peak, and we’ve been downhill since, with colder on the way.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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12 Responses to A Rather Remarkable Old Article

  1. Mike Bromley the Canucklehead says:

    Yamaaaaaaaaaaaaaaal!!!!!!!!!! Whoops!

  2. kramer says:

    I can only wonder if Hansen et. al. read this, and realized it was right, then decided to craft an ‘exploit’ of that wisdom…

    Ha! I’ve been wondering the same exact thing!…

    I could be wrong on this next part, but I think I read once that stormy weather often occurs when a cold air mass collides with a warm air mass. Well, if this article is right and we start getting colder air masses from the North, won’t that result in more stormy weather when they meet with warmer air? If so, then maybe this is why the ‘scientists’ have been warning lately about more stormy weather?…

  3. Gary P. Smith says:

    This link references a few pieces of Dr. Libby’s work.

    http://www.google.com/search?tbo=p&tbm=bks&q=inauthor:%22Leona+M.+Libby%22&source=gbs_metadata_r&cad=3

    Looks like she worked on some DOD contracts, including use of catalysts in petroleum production.

    What would be really interesting is to hear her take on Mann’s bast*****ation of her methodology with regards to Yamal.

  4. adolfogiurfa says:

    sotopic Tree Thermometers: Correlation With Radiocarbon

    Leona Marshall Libby
    School of Engineering, Department of Energy and Kinetics, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90024

    Louis J. Pandolfi
    Department of Chemistry, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, and School of Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90024

    We have obtained evidence that trees store the record of climate in their rings. In each ring the ratios of the stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen vary in proportion to the air temperature when the ring was formed because the isotopic composition of rain and atmospheric CO2 varies with temperature. In this paper the stable isotope variations of hydrogen and oxygen in a Japanese cedar have been correlated with the secular variations of radiocarbon measured in bristlecone pines by Suess (1970). We find significant negative correlations for both isotope ratios over the last 1800 years. The inference is that the small-scale (∼ 1%) variations in 14C concentrations in tree rings are related to climate variations. In our data we find periodicities of 58, 68, 90, 96, 154, 174, 204, and 272 years. Because our samples are averaged over 5 years each, we are not able to detect the 21-year sunspot cycle in the present data. The Suess samples averaged over about 25 years each reveal a periodicity of 183 years, in agreement with our periodicity of 174 years.
    But, also, as quoted many times, it has been found a cycle of 55-60 years in climate, in a paper made for UN´s FAO.
    ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/005/y2787e/

    However we are living, perhaps, a quite different problem…Buy more popcorn, and hold on tight on your seats!

  5. We CAN AVERT electrically driven quakes-volcanic eruptions*, thus new Fukushimas:

    Japan’s former Ambassador to Switzerland, Mr. Mitsuhei Murata, spoke at the public hearing of the Budgetary Committee of the House of Councilors on March 22, 2012 on the Fukushima nuclear power plants accident. Before the Committee, Ambassador Murata strongly stated that, if the crippled building of reactor unit 4―with 1,535 fuel rods in the spent-fuel pool 100 feet (30 meters) above the ground―collapses, not only will it cause a shutdown of all six reactors but it will also affect the common spent-fuel pool containing 6,375 fuel rods, located some 50 meters from reactor 4. In both cases the radioactive rods are not protected by a containment vessel; dangerously, they are open to the air.
    This would certainly cause a global catastrophe like we have never before experienced. He stressed that the responsibility of Japan to the rest of the world is immeasurable. Such a catastrophe would affect us all for centuries.

    Britain National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies -2012 edition
    Volcanic hazards Risk
    3.25 …There are a range of volcanoes across Europe (such as SANTORINI in the Aegean Sea) which could have consequences for the UK…
    3.27 …Significant eruptions of this type can emit gases and particles into the stratosphere, above weather systems, where they may also have subsequent CLIMATIC effects. [=VOLCANIC WINTER]
    https://update.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/sites/default/files/resources/CO_NationalRiskRegister_2012_acc.pdf.

    Solar flares trigger earthquakes
    Jain, R., Physical Research Laboratory.
    Each of the 682 >4.0 earthquakes under study was preceded by a solar flare of B to X class by 10-100 hrs.
    http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUSMIN33A..03J.

    Explosive volcanic eruptions triggered by cosmic rays
    Toshikazu Ebisuzaki, Hiroko Miyahara, Ryuho Kataoka, Tatsuhiko Sato, Yasuhiro Ishimine
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1342937X10001966.

    Nature 482, 77–80 (02 February 2012)
    “If you had a big [volcanic] eruption of this sort [globally devastating], let’s say in the middle of Europe today, the effects would be enormous and a few months might not be enough to get your act together.” http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v482/n7383/full/nature10706.html. SO:
    *
    Worldwide Lightning-rod Nets URGENTLY to save humankind from cannibalic collapse
    by galactically driven, devastating quakes/volcanic winters,
    as happened to Mayas, Aztecs, Incas

    Thera VOLCANIC EXPLOSION LARGER THAN KRAKATOA TRIGGERS COLLAPSE OF BRONZE AGE
    William Ryan, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
    http://geologymuseum.rutgers.edu/downloads/newsletter_-_2005_spring.pdf
    Five years volcanic winter of disastrous harvests: “The massive crop failures caused by climatic change had a domino effect on the Mediterranean economy that traveled in a wave of political uprisings from Anatolia to Mesopotamia to Egypt and then back to the Aegean”…
    “When Tambora exploded, agriculture was severely damaged even on the opposite side of the world. At a VEI of 7, Thera’s eruption would have had a similar effect on the Bronze Age climate,” said Dr. Ryan.

  6. adolfogiurfa says:

    Interesting:

  7. E.M.Smith says:

    @HugoM:

    The WMO portion of the number is the same ( 5 digits IIRC) while the minor part seems to vary. I think it’s just an added 0 digit for some, but frankly just decided to ignore it for now. Matching on WMO 5 digit looks to be a ‘reasonable’ thing to do (for the state of investigation so far).

    I looked at a LOT of stations and for some had to resort to matching description and Lat / Lon to be sure they were the same. This was before I’d sorted out the Country Codes and found that some countries got broken up into many new ones (so, for example, 599 going from a large collection of ‘dependent islands’ to individual country codes).

    Basically, the WMO station is the main one anyway, and the ‘minor’ part just says “incremental number assigned to some other station near that WMO guy”. That means it’s the very nearly the same climate regime so not very sensitive if you just lump all the same WMO parts together. Sometimes it’s the same station, just moved a small distance, so a new minor number.

    (At the moment the Linux box is shut down – just woke up and waiting for morning Tea ;-) and didn’t want to leaving it running and plugged in with a CME on the way… After tea I’ll post the details on a couple of stations and nail down the particulars…)

    FWIW, most of the V2 and V3 stations minor number are a bunch of zeros and a single digit at the end, so the added digit is almost entirely a zero. The only bit I’ve not bothered showing yet is if a 002 in v2 is still a ‘2’ of some sort in v1. Ought to be quick and easy, though…

    Looking on the laptop I’ve got some of the descriptive files unpacked. The v1 README says:

    STATION is a seven-digit station identification number. In most
    cases, the last two digits of this variable are 00, and the
    first five digits are the station’s normal WMO number (e.g.,
    1234500). For some stations, no WMO number was currently in
    use. In these cases, the last two digits of STATION are
    other than 00, and the first five digits are the WMO number
    of the nearest active WMO station (e.g., 1234501).

    As the number of stations went up a lot in v2, there ought to be more increments to the minor number, but it’s almost always a string of zeros and a single ending digit.

    The supplied model FORTRAN for v1 says the minor modifier is a 2 digit code, while it is 3 digits in v2:

    C FORTRAN data retrieval code to read and print the GHCN station
    C inventory files (Files 8-11 on the first magnetic tape)...
    C
    C Variable declarations...
    C
          INTEGER COUNTRY, STATION, ELEV, FIRST, LAST, DISC
          REAL LAT, LON, MISSING
          CHARACTER * 25 NAME
    C
    C Initialize a record counter...
    C
          NREC = 0
    C
    C Read in one line of data...
    C
       10 READ (1, 1, END=99) COUNTRY, STATION, NAME, LAT, LON, ELEV,
         *FIRST, LAST, MISSING, DISC
    C
        1 FORMAT (I3, I7, 2X, A25, 1X, F6.2, 1X, F7.2, 1X, I4,
         *1X, I4, 1X, I4, 1X, F4.1, 1X, I1)
    C
    C If 58 lines of data have been read, then begin a new page...
    C
          IF (MOD(NREC, 58) .EQ. 0) WRITE (6, 60)
    C
       60 FORMAT ('1', ' Country/Station', 7X, 'Station Name',
         *15X, 'Latitude', 2X, 'Longitude', 2X, 'Elevation', 2X,
         *'Period of Record', 2X, 'Missing (%)', 2X,
         *'Discontinuity', /)
    

    ( I have copies squirreled away on the laptop too ;-)

    So you can see it’s a 7 digit identifier of which the first five are the WMO number.

    For v3, the README says:

    Variable Definitions:

    ID: 11 digit identifier, digits 1-3=Country Code, digits 4-8 represent
    the WMO id if the station is a WMO station. It is a WMO station if
    digits 9-11=”000″.

    so 5 of the 8 are WMO and 3 are either 000 or an incremental for a ‘nearby’ station. As in v2. I’ve heard rumbles that in v3 they already combined minor number stations into one record (not verified myself yet) and that would eliminate most of the 001, 002, 003, 004 etc increments from the minor instrument changes. If true, then those 3 digits will be wildly different between v1, v2, and v3.

    So, in summary:

    v1 – 5 digit WMO, 2 digit modifier / minor number
    v2 – 5 digit WMO, 3 digit modifier / minor number (likely prepended 0)
    v3 – 5 digit WMO, 3 digit modifier and very different incremental numbers likely but unverified.

    More as I get further into it…

    @Hillbilly33:

    Nice to know you are enjoying the place ;-)

    Yes, “long lived and stable” stations all pretty much say “No warming”. Tonyb did a nice series on this.

    FWIW one of my earliest “Ah Hah!” moments was a discovery that station longevity was THE major indicator of warming (inverse relationship). Those stations with long records were not warming. Short lived stations were. Later I discovered that many of THOSE were a new minor number on an old WMO. After that I found they were often the ASOS at the airport that got a new minor number…. Search on “thermometer years warm the globe” in the search box and it ought to pop up.

    That was what got me thinking that GIStemp was all just one giant splice artifact creator.

    The more I’ve looked into it, the more that’s what I’ve found.

    I’ll take a look at Valentia in particular.

    BTW, hanging out at JoNova’s place is a fun thing to do. I lurk there from time to time ;-)

    Feel free to post links to her stuff anytime something interesting pops up. I can’t always keep up and appreciate the time saved via such links.

    FWIW, David Miller (the comedian) caused a bit of a stir when some Warmer was making a fuss and he said ~”Yes, it’s warming a little bit… but the thing is, most of us LIKE it better!”…

    So “bring it on” is my take on things too. We’ve had a cool dismal spring so far, with blustery winds and more snow on the local mountains than usual. Even late frosts at night. My garden is doing a very slow start this year. Things like Kale and other cool season things holding up but warm season stuff a month behind….

    At any rate, enjoy that Aussie Red! You make good stuff down under. (Had some very nice red about 1983 or so when landed at Sydney and drove inland to the Back ‘o Burke.. then out the back door to past the end of the tarmac a few miles… Got out of the car and had a bit of ‘dizzy’ as for as far as I could see, I was the tallest thing. Felt a bit like falling off the world. Two tire tracks in the dirt to the horizon. Decided to go back to the pub at Burke and buy a round of beer for the 3 guys in there instead of seeing how lost my 1/2 tank of gas could get me ;-)

    Some of the finest folks in the world can be met at the last pub before the outback, shortly after you buy a round for the house ;-)

    Fine reds, too. The stuff from near Adelaide was very nice… In a club down in Melbourne we had fine prime rib, great red, and wandering floor shows. Don’t remember the name, but like a converted warehouse with folks on stilts doing juggling and wandering singers and… Sigh… It’s been too long ;-) Like fine dining inside a small Cirque du Soleil.

  8. Pascvaks says:

    One way to see if anything much has really changed is to look at what was known in the past and what is known today… hummmmm… nope!…can’t see a thing! Guess things haven’t moved much one way or the other. Wonder what that means?

  9. gregole says:

    I recall reading this on Goddard’s site and tried to find more information on the two researchers. They seem to keep a low profile – I couldn’t find much. I just assumed they are chuckling to themselves about the B-Team Warmista and have better things to do. Uncanny predictions though; and yes their work needs a broader exposure.

  10. adolfogiurfa says:

    @AVERT volcanic winters-next ice-age:
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/gms.htm

  11. Mark Miller says:

    @adolfogiurfa:

    Yes, interesting. Corbyn takes down Svensmark, though not totally. He says that galactic dust is the cause of the historic temperature variations Svensmark saw, which also causes the supernovae. He asserts this, but I don’t see him back this up with data. It sounds like he’s saying, “This is more plausible.” Okay, it’s more plausible, but plausibility is not evidence. Maybe what he’s saying is not that far from common knowledge in astronomy.

    Also interesting to hear how the warmists are playing politics, using Svensmark as a straw man, like they’ve used everything else.

    Svensmark’s theory has a certain attraction about it, because it’s beautiful, at least to my brain. :) When I saw his presentation on it, a show called “The Chilling Stars,” I hoped it would be borne out, though I have reserved judgment on it. Corbyn’s explanation sounds more boring. It’s just an aesthetic thing. Keats said “Beauty is truth.” Mathematicians can say this, but beauty can be beguiling, too, especially in science.

  12. p.g.sharrow says:

    It always seems to happen. A lie can travel around the world before the truth can get out the door.

    I remember the paper and have been telling people about this for the last 30 plus years. The 58 – 64 year climate cycles have been well known for over 200 years. Even so “educated” people seem to need to re-discover things every generation, to prove their intellect.

    I also prefer warm to cold, even HOT is better then COLD! pg

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