So what’s going on in the worlds of Currencies, Metals, Ag Commodities, and other “stuff”?
Generally, the Euro is tanking, the Dollar is the “safe haven” even though it has it’s own issues, commodities in general took a hit (though Natural Gas finally stopped dropping at about the $2 / unit level (about 20 cents / gallon of gasoline equivalent). It is all due to Asia slowing down, the USA not starting up, and Europe in a meltdown. Oh, and Latin America on another nationalization binge, so driving folks away. Add in that India just decided all companies making loads of foreign exchange need to convert 1/2 of it to Rupees inside a fortnight, and folks money will be fleeing there, too. Japan is still stuck in financial molasses as it has been for decades and that just doesn’t leave much good news. That gold has been dropping puts it out of the ‘safe haven’ spotlight too.
With that, on to the charts.
There are detailed charts, with more tickers on them, and more descriptions, in the list here:
For currencies, they are mixed in with bonds here:
While Ag Stuff is here:
Metals are in this one:
And the energy commodities are covered with the oil companies here:
As energy commodities were / are covered on Energy Humpday we will not be covering them here too.
There are some other kinds of “stuff” and I’ll add some of them from time to time. For now, these are it.
Governments all over the planet like to manipulate their currencies. Your job is to figure out who is doing how much and adjust for it. You can NOT just assume that “money is money”. It isn’t. It is a ‘rubber ruler’ of no particular value.
As you can see, GLD Gold is very volatile. You could trade the jumps and drops, but it has generally been in a down trend since the peak of the ‘mini-bubble’ back in August. UUP, the “Dollar Up” bet is rising slighly, but with stronger wobbles so timing an entry matters more than the vehicle. FXB the British Pound and FXF the Swiss Franc have a gentle rise out of that dip in December but looks tied to the Euro by bank policy, so might be worth a closer look. FXA the Aussie Dollar is dropping and FXC the Canadian Dollar rising (there was a ‘pair trade’ in them suggested on the fast money currency show Friday). FXM The Mexican Peso is not very interesting. FXY, the Yen, took a big tumble in Feb Mar, and only partly recovered. IIRC there was a large slowdown in exports.
Here’s a live version, but zoomed in to 6 months so you can see recent trends better.
The only thing that’s really interesting on it is the yellow FXB British Pound. Yet even it is drooping the last couple of weeks.
That kind of monetary ‘wandering’ plays Hobb with export company earnings for all the players. Stability this isn’t.
Biggest conclusion I get out of it all is “Be out of the Euro and in Pounds or $US”, but that we already knew from the Eurozone Crisis. FXC Canadian is falling with oil (having risen with it prior) and FXA Australia is dropping on weak China demand.
How about the Precious Metals Group?
Not looking all that good, are they?
Here’s a live version, six months time frame:
Through all the volatility, you can see TIP just cruising along. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities are the safe haven for now. Not gold.
On that one you can see that RSI has been ‘near 20’ and is doing a ‘higher low’, while there was a big volume spike in that drop a couple of months back, but not as much volume in this drop. We are likely close to a bottom / buying point in gold.
Slow Stochastic shows a likely bounce in the next week on a trade basis.
Here is a chart of just GLD. It has RSI on it with Volume. The SMA stack is still in a falling configuration and (on the other charts) MACD is below zero while DMI is “red on top” so this is a ‘counter trend trade’. Just back to the middle of the SMA lines, then step aside again. But Slow Stochastic is looking like it’s ready for a crossover to ‘blue on top’ with a rise back to about 85 possible. This is for trading, not investing. That lack of volume on this downside move is telling. Not a lot of panic sellers left.
Base Metals all pretty much drifting down. Don’t expect much action out of metals miners and refiners. Bulk shipping will likely drop too.
All in all, not good for manufacturing. Copper is in just about everything from homes to cars to electric motors and coffee pots. Tin is in solder, so not a lot of electronics demand, while Nickel is in stainless Steel – pots pans and chemical factories.
Looks like an economic slowdown.
Not a lot of excitement here, either. On the basic chart pretty much everything is rolled over. SGG Sugar down pretty hard. (As the Brazilian Real is also dropped, that takes down Brazilian sugar too). Even COW is down. Well, now if the lower costs will just show up in the grocery store…
When the best you can say is cocoa has stopped dropping, not a lot of trade here. Folks who BUY these things will likely do well. Food processors, Starbucks, etc. BAL being down says not a lot of folks making clothes. Expect sales of farm equipment this spring to be a bit ‘light’. When prices are down, folks don’t double up on fertilizer to juice production either. Grains had been holding up, but have now started a roll off as well.
The “Stuff” trade says the global economy is slowing. Not a lot of interest. Gold looks like it might have a bit of a bounce, but is still in a down trend, so don’t over stay the trade.