A rather interesting site (stumbled on in a comment on WUWT):
That claims to have found evidence that global cooling is underway. He uses a novel data source (in Spanish, no less):
so it could use a bit of ‘vetting’ to see where the data originate. Perhaps even a bit of A/B vs GHCN et.al.
We note from my 3 tables below that Maxima, Means and Minima have all turned negative between 12 and 22 years ago. The change in signal is best observed in that of the Maxima where we can see a gradual decline of the maximum temperatures from 0.036 degrees C per annum (over the last 37 years) to -0.016 (when taken over the last 12 years).
If we plot the global measurements for the change in Maxima: 0.036, 0.028, 0.015, -0.016 against the relevant time periods, it can be shown that the best fit for the curve is given by
y= 0.0454 ln(x)-0.1278 (R2=0.994).
At 0 (zero) when there was no warming or cooling we find x=16.7 years. From this sample of weather stations I can therefore estimate with reasonable accuracy that global cooling started somewhere during 1994 (2011-17=1994).
Interesting read… Interesting data source… Interesting ideas…
About all I can add is that with a 60 year cycle, 30 year 1/2 cycle, it would take 4 or 5 years of “sort of flat” near a top / reversal. A 6 year period is 10% of the cycle and temperatures near the top and bottom change more slowly than during the zero crossing.
All THAT makes me wonder if a possible analysis would be to look at “year to year rate of change” to see if the inflections (near zero) and the zero crossings (fastest rate of change) show up. Probably need a 5 year moving average to filter out things like a ‘blow off top’ in any one year.