There’s a wonderful point where a lot of ‘scut work’ is done and you can start to just cook through things. Code built and pretty much tested (still needs a rigorous ‘last fine comb’ just to be sure) but simple changes make more variations very quickly. That’s where I am now.
So I’ve just pumped out two new graphs. One for the Northern Hemisphere and one for the Southern Hemisphere. S.H. is very flat. Not much you can do with a load of ocean and coastline. N.H. is where the action comes from. I had to rescale the S.H. graph to match the north in scale, but that makes it a bit hard to see much change. Then again, that’s sort of the point.
Click on the S.H. graph and then expand it to full size. Notice that many times in history the temperature are at about the same point as now? Looking at the general shape of the curves, it mostly looks like recent cold excursions are being “averaged out” of the data. (The near end has a sort of “ironed flat” look. Even the year to year changes, dT, don’t change much). That is, IMHO, at least partly just an artifact of more thermometers in the average. Extremes get removed with averaging. Look at the far right ‘start of time’ when there are only a couple of thermometers for a counter example. Lots of bouncing around. Very volatile.
But overall the S.H. graph just doesn’t have much ‘lift’ to it for v1 or for v3.
So my first question would be just: How can it be GLOBAL Warming if the Southern Hemisphere has a very different amount?
My second question would be: How much of this “warming” is just careful adjustment of thermometers in Canada, the USA, England, and some fudge on the Asian numbers?
So I need to do a breakdown by continent (just changing one field in the scripts) but that will have to wait until after dinner.
For now, I’m just going to put up the two graphs and the two sets of data / reports. It’s pretty obvious where all the “warming” is happening… Though S.H. gets a little lift to it. There’s about 1/4 to 1/2 C between about 1950 and 1990. Though nothing since about 1865, 1895, 1919, and nearly nothing since 1940.
Notice that v3 mostly sits on top of v1 (the yellow line and the dark blue line. Oddly, v3 runs above v1 in the late 1890s to early 1920s range. It does soften the hot 1930s and 40s a bit, though. My two major “takeaways” from this graph are just that you can have 1/4 C of variation in the data (AS Anomalies) just from which thermometers are in the selected set. That, and just how overall flat 1/2 of the planet has been over the entire instrumental record. Other than a 30 / 60 year ripple in the temperatures, nothing really happens. The very early “one or two” thermometers era look a bit wild, until you realize that even there it is only 1.5 to 2 C of range. Heck, my home thermostat doesn’t hold a 1.5 C range.
But on to the Northern Hemisphere. It has more “color” to it. This is where thermometer records are changing. Again, just a quick A/B on these two graphs show that “Global Warming” isn’t very Global (if it exists at all…)
We can again see the dramatic reduction in “range” of the annual excursions. I wonder how much of that is due to “Quality Control” ironing out valid extremes, and how much is an artifact of more thermometers in the average (and how much is places like California where they dumped the thermometers in colder more volatile places and left only 4, all near the ocean and moderated by water to not move as much.)
Overall, the yellow v3 line is lower in the far past, and rises higher recently. The v3 data are of greater slope (more “warming”) than the v1 data; at least in the Northern Hemisphere. (Damn Yankees! ;-) Oddly, while recent dT values are of narrow range, the older values have v3 consistently more volatile than v1. The two curves are largely the same, but v3 ranges further. Odd, that. In broad terms, the “ripple” looks like it is in phase, with a warm 1930s-40s and a cooler 1960s-70s. Similarly the 1860s and 1890s have warmer years in them. The S.H. chart ends in the 1830s while this one extends to 1702, so they do not line up exactly. In 1830 the N.H. is having a wild warming (that bubble up just to the right of the main heading) rather like the S.H. does at the far right edge of its graph.
Frankly, given that the North had more airports faster, and more urban growth faster, than the South, I suspect that what little “warming” there is can be entirely explained with Urban Heat Island effect, Airport Heat Island effect, and a bit of over zealous data ‘adjusting’ by folks at certain Northern Hemisphere Met Offices and government agencies. To my eye, the bulk of the “lift” looks to come between 1890 and about 1935. Then we have the typical “ripple” both before (at a lower level) and after. Given that 2 world wars happened in there, along with several changes of thermometer scales and instruments ( Japan, alone, took a significant rise with the arrival of American Occupation and different instruments and methods) I’m surprised the offset is only 1/2 C. I’d expect more than that just from airports turning from grass balloon fields to tarmac coated International Jetports.
It is clear that there is nothing “Global” about “Global Warming”. It is also clear that the increased “warming” in v3 when compared to v1 is predominantly (only?) in the Northern Hemisphere and looks to be most likely tied to the differential urban / airport development rate, the movement of thermometers to be substantially all at airports, and some “odd” changes of adjustments.
In the next report I’ll be breaking each hemisphere out into constituent continents. Africa, South America, Oceana (region 5) and Antarctica for the Southern Hemisphere (plus 800 ‘ships’ for v3). Asia, North America, and Europe for the Northern Hemisphere.
If that shows anything interesting, I’ll then break out individual countries of interest.
Now, one final question:
Given that the Southern Hemisphere (per the temperature graph above) isn’t really participating in “Global Warming”, does that mean they all get a Carbon Guilt Indulgence and can go back to happily living their lives free of dumb things like the Australian Cap & Tax?