Taurid Surprise…

Well, that’s a surprise…

I was doing a bit of searching on possible causes for the 8.2 Kiloyear event. Put in a ‘reasonable search term’ of “Taurid Storm Period” and what pops up as #1 hit? Well, “me”!

Taurid Storm Period search results

Taurid Storm Period search results

I’m not sure what to make of it…

On the one hand, it means I’m somehow on the cutting edge of this thesis. On the other hand, it means I’m not likely to get a lot of help from looking up other folks stuff and / or I’m leading the “Flaky Idea” brigade. In any case, it’s a very interesting experience to find yourself as the top of the heap of the search results…

With that, back to trying to sort out the 8.2 kiloyear event and possible causes. While I suspect it is driven by the same thing driving other Bond Events, and possibly either a Taurid impact connection ( like the Younger Dryas) and / or a lunar resonance cycle; clearly I need some different search terms to avoid “self confirmation bias” ;-)

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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19 Responses to Taurid Surprise…

  1. Pascvaks says:

    EM-
    Did the same and got the same, then I inserted ‘meteor’ into the line and got
    About 18,000 results and the line
    “Results for Taurid Meteor Storm Period (without quotes):”
    as usual, wikipedia came out on top.

  2. KevinM says:

    Off topic: fixing global warming only extremely important to 20 pct in latest Gallup election poll.
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/156347/Americans-Next-President-Prioritize-Jobs-Corruption.aspx

    Should be mildly pleasing to the crowd here.

  3. P.G. Sharrow says:

    @EMSmith:” I’m leading the “Flaky Idea” brigade.”

    Pretty scary to find you are considered the chief flake! Ha HA HA

    I feel that a visit to this site is always an educational experience. And fun as well. ;-) pg

  4. That’s good news, KevinM, that so many want to end corruption in federal government.

    Fear of “nuclear fires” that consumed Hiroshima and Nagasaki on 6 Aug and 9 Aug 1945, respectively, caused world leaders to hide this reality
    _ http://www.universetoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/sun_cme.jpg

    Today after sixty-six years (2012 – 1946 – 66 yrs) of deception on the source of energy (E) stored as mass (m) in cores of atoms and stars:
    _ http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/#comment-720

    That same energy source was observed birthing 740 stars per year !
    _ http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/chandra/news/12-278.html

    Someone warned George Orwell in 1947: Deception will lead to tyranny !</b History confirms his 1948 writings, published in 1949, and entitled “1984″
    _ http://www.online-literature.com/orwell/1984/

    The next generation cannot stop misinformation from further enslaving us unless we find a way to bypass misinformation being given to our children on the benevolent source of energy that
    a.) Made our elements,
    b.) Sustains our lives, and
    c.) Controls Earth’s climate:
    _ http://www.universetoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/sun_cme.jpg

    With kind regards,
    Oliver K. Manuel
    Former NASA Principal
    Investigator for Apollo

  5. Oliver K,
    When it comes to government deception don’t forget “CATASTROPHIC Anthropogenic Global Warming”.

  6. Pascvaks says:

    EM-
    “Millennium Cycles: New Paper Reveals Clear Solar Impact On The Climate 9000 – 6000 Years Ago”
    http://notrickszone.com/2012/08/15/millennium-cycles-new-paper-reveals-clear-solar-impact-on-the-climate-7000-years-ago/
    “Also during the early post Ice Age times dry periods over the Florida region occurred with regularity. When the climate cooled in the North Atlantic, along with other regions of the world, the rains failed over the Florida Strait region. In the Pacific, the El Nino-events become more frequent (Figure 2). Solar activity also set the beat in other parts of the world, as confirmed by the results of studies by Gerard Bond. There was one exception. The authors found a dry Florida period at the 8200 year mark (gray bar, Figure 2). Here they interpreted regional deviations and the effects of system-internal cycles.”

  7. adolfogiurfa says:

    @E.M. So…..YOU WERE THERE in Florida 8.2 Kiloyear back!, really surprising! :-)

  8. adolfogiurfa says:

    Seriously now: In “Stonehenge Decoded”, the author sets the origin of that monument about 8,000 years back in time….(have to revise the book)

  9. tckev says:

    Pascvaks, I was looking at the same thing last night, and how it fits with other cyclic known and hypothesized events. The solar events are strong but its that 8.2 kyear that got me wondering, cyclic or not?
    Guess E.M. jumped straight to the most probable answer, having that better depth of knowledge than I. Good call E.M. As you say ‘dig here’.

  10. E.M.Smith says:

    @Pascvaks:

    That was the article that got me thinking about it. Looking more closely at the graph in that article, there is, in fact, a cold spell with solar downturn at the 8.2 kyr event point, BUT, things stay cold as the sun activity goes back up.

    IMHO that is an indication that the cold was just so darned cold in that downturn that it took a very long time of ‘more warmth’ to get out of it. So yes, they can’t say “look it is synchronous with the sun!” when the sun goes warm and the planet stays cold… but the planet DID go cold on the cold excursion that starts at 8.4 kyr ago. There is also a bit of ‘offset’ between the Atlantic zone and Pacific zone onset / recovery that might indicate a more profound change of ocean circulation in that event.

    So looks to me like it is similar to the other solar driven events, only more so ;-)

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/57/Greenland_Gisp2_Temperature.svg/1000px-Greenland_Gisp2_Temperature.svg.png

    shows it as a very deep cold spike in Greenland from a very high warm start. I could see it taking a while to get the heat out of the system globally at the start, then a bit of ‘stickage’ on the warming back up of the places that just got cold in the Pacific and around to where the Gulf Stream starts back up in Florida (after coming around Africa from the Indian Ocean)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tollmann%27s_hypothetical_bolide claims evidence for bolide impacts at the 7640 and 3150 BP cold spike points (so implication would be the 8.2 could be also?)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_environmental_history#9th_millennium_BC

    says there was still a lot of glacial melt to be finished. Evidence for the Clovis Event being an impact into ice is pretty strong, so another impact in 8.2-8.4 ky BP also into ice would be an easy possible.

    So the timing could be as simple as a solar quite period starts things getting cool, then just about the time the sun starts ramp up of Be and C14 we take a rock fall that deepens the cold for a while and makes it way too cold for the sun to warm it up (especially with a load of ice still laying around the N. H.)… Need to find some dust data for 8.2 kya ;-)

    @Adolfo:

    Stonehenge didn’t just pop up out of nothing. It grew in phases. Large stone relatively recent, older rings of holes a few thousand years earlier. The surrounding plains are to some extent sculpted for best viewing of rise time of stars and planets. The “mote” around the outer ring is to give a constant artificial horizon IMHO. But you don’t start off making one the size of a football pitch… Those folks were doing something like it for a very long time…

    @Pascvaks: I’ll give the other search terms a spin…

    @KevinM: Lots of folks have looked at it enough to realize that either:

    1) It’s too late to do anything ( IFF they drank the coolaid).
    2) There’s nothing to do ( if they didn’t drink..)
    3) Anything happening will take a few lifetimes so they don’t care…

    and all of them are seeing Euro-Land implode and the USA being fleeced and just don’t give a rats ass about 1 C in 50 years in comparison to being dead, starved, and robbed blind… while out of work …

    @P.G. Sharrow: I think of it as being in the context of deep history and technology like “flint flake knives” ;-)

    @All:

    Also found some interesting bits of hard core research on the Taurids. Several here:
    http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/taurid.html

    Looks like there are sound grounds for thinking that there is a ‘cluster’ in the Taurids due to orbital resonance effects and that we get periodic bigger wallops due to that. Some chunks of km size still out there…
    http://adsbit.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-iarticle_query?1993MNRAS.264...93A

    One of the “periods” seen on the solar cycle graph (and elsewhere) is a 1000 ish year cycle. One a wiki page about the Nile we have:

    “The river Nile froze twice in recorded history, in 829 and 1010.”

    The Taurids have a “double tap” with a couple of hundred years between the two bulges… and that 1010 is just about 1000 years ago…

    So wonder if there’s enough data to show a match of more volcanoes with rock falls with solar output cycling all coordinated via orbital resonance effects ;-)

  11. Espen says:

    Heh! A few months ago, I was investigating a very strange computer bug – I think it was an error message in system.log on an OS X system. I googled without results, then posted a question on a forum. Just a few minutes later I googled again, and now there was a relevant hit. Unfortunately it was my question ;)

  12. adolfogiurfa says:

    @E.M. & Pascvaks:
    Abstract. A solar activity cycle of about 2400 years has until now been of uncertain origin. Recent results indicate it is caused by solar inertial motion. First we describe the 178.7-year basic cycle of solar motion. The longer cycle, over an 8000 year interval, is found to average 2402.2 years. This corresponds to the Jupiter/ Heliocentre/Barycentre alignments (9.8855 ´ 243). With-in each cycle an exceptional segment of 370 years has been found characterized by a looping pattern by a trefoil or quasitrefoil geometry. Solar activity, evidenced by 14C tree-ring proxies, shows the same pattern. Solar motion is computable in advance, so this provides a basis for future predictive assessments. The next 370-year segment will occur between AD 2240 and 2610.
    http://www.giurfa.com/charvatova.pdf

  13. Pascvaks says:

    @EM-
    If it didn’t happen over/in the oceans, bet there’s something interesting in a few of those recent (8-9K) Moraines;-)

    @Adolfo-
    Thanks for the link. Always thought that it took more than a little something to wiggle us around with all these crazy vibebrations and cycles. I’ve thought for sometime now that Barnard’s Star and Proxima Centauri (et al ‘Centauris’) were responsible for a good piece of the puzzle. After all, when something goes wrong at home it’s just very American (North and South) to blame your neighbors;-)

    (Adolfo, something for T7 – Is Ecuador crazy or are they just stupid, why kick sand in Britain’s face over a Wikileaks pervert, ¿No Comprende?;-)

  14. pyromancer76 says:

    Excellent that your efforts came up first in your search. I have been working over my files with regard to the Taurid Complex, Younger-Dryas, 8.2 ka event (minimal material). In doing so I came upon a 1999 30-page essay by S.V.M. Clube, The Problem of Historical Catastrophism (in tmgno3w.com/repository/cosmology/clube.html by Gary D. Goodwin).

    I know you have read Clube’s research, but this one might have something extra. See especially Section 9, p. 24. He suggests the Taurid cycles that are familiar: 2.5 kyr and 5.0 kyr double cycle. He also states: “Of particular significance in this study is the additional existence of a more random “cycle” of 1.47-0.50 kyr associated with sudden cooling events which evidently persist into the Holocene and which therefore bear witness to a continued interaction with the Earth involving unexpected but comparatively major apocalyptic events” p. 30. His overall thesis is that “civilization” (at least political and religious elites) back at least to the Sumerians (5000
    BP) has refused to acknowledge the danger from these astronomical objects and suggests that almost all civilization-ending events have their roots in collisions of some sort. Recent science, out of the Enlightenment has determined to remain wedded to uniformitarianism — no apocalyptic events may apply and most astronomers have gone right along (the elite-intellectual zeitgeist). They might permit the very infrequent meteor impact, but… “Based on the Tunguska and Shoemaker-Levy events this century for example, and the integral flux of such bodies recorded by Lunar craters formed during the course of Earth history, the average global rate of such encounters causing damage on the scale of nations and empires is on the order of about ONE PER CENTURY (my caps). This however is a simple long-term average which does not do justice to the known disintegration of comets and the actual swarms of debris that give rise to apocalypticism.” p 10.

    The coherent catastrophism thesis is a very interesting one, especially when the physical, orbital evidence is added to the actual historical data. I also recommend barry.warmkessel.com/4related for many dates/evidence for impact data. Of course, I am recommending this stuff so that you will do “the work”. My poor brain gets frazzled as I try to sort out “forcings” of events, especially empire-ending events, and “climate change” cycles. Also thanks for thinking through the more immediate dangers from “this stuff” for we who are living now on Earth.

  15. Pascvaks says:

    Wanted to see more on the “where” in the Earth’s orbit of the cluster of debris that makes up the Taurid’s and entered “Taurid Meteor Storm Period” (less ” “) and clicked ‘Images’ – guess what I saw on page one of 5530 results? You guessed it, the pic at the top of this page and the link to this page. I’m tellin’ ya, yer famos! Absolutly famos!
    (gotta’ go look-up somemore; suspect that there’s a cluster of junk that is constantly refilled by primarily Jupiter and Mars that sits there quietly waiting for us to wander by and then, like a sleeping mad dog, jumps out and bites us as we walk by; always had trouble with the idea that it was just all leftovers from some passing comet a long time ago; there’s gotta be a ‘resupply system’ for the Taurids and the other(s);-)

  16. E.M.Smith says:

    @Pascvaks:

    There’s some links toward the bottom of:

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/08/17/dust-zodiacs-queen-the-band/

    that include a link to:

    http://www.pibburns.com/catastro/clubenap.htm#cohercat

    that has more links at the bottom to other folks looking at it.

    The basic thesis is that some external events knock giant comets loose from places like the one “parked” near Saturn / Jupiter and/or the Oort cloud, and when then enter the central solar system (become Short Period comets) they start to break up. This results in ‘streams’ of debris that persist for a long time. So the Enke precursor came along about 20,000 years ago and we’ve been slowly working off that break up / debris field every couple of kilo-years ever since. Other debris fields (with other timings…) exist from other giant comets. In the future (but at an known date) some OTHER new comet will go through the same process.

    As the ‘debris’ can be a collection of carbonaceous chunks (that are not good radar reflectors nor good light reflectors) we don’t know much about size and distribution (other than what can be inferred by historical impact patterns and theoretical considerations of orbital resonance stability).

    Short from: Nobody knows where the ‘big lumps’ are, how many, or when they return. Best guess is a Tunguska like event about once per century ( it was a Taurid date event…) but historical inspection looks like at least 3 patterns with 1500, 1000, and maybe a “few hundred” year periods… And possible supermultiples of those ( 3000, 2000, 5000, 4000, etc years).

    @Pyromancer76:

    Yes, it looks like Clube was the guy who pushed this the most. That paper you reference looks interesting. The “standard” thesis is that impact events are a random distribution by size. Yet we know that orbital forces will ‘bunch things up’ and we know that the debris fields exist from comet breakups. The two don’t go together well…

    The really good thing is that we look to be living in a quiet time. (The bad thing is that could change tomorrow…)

    Somewhere along the way I picked up a “factoid” for which I’ve lost the pointer, so I can’t reference it:

    In the early days of satellite nuke test detection, they got about 2 “Alerts” per year. These turned out to be ‘false alarms’. They eventually figured out that the bright nuke sized flashes were rocks hitting the air at great speed from space… A “double peak” filter was put in that looks for TWO flashes in rapid succession ( as nukes do) and that fixed the problem.

    The conclusion being that roughly 2 “nuke sized” atmospheric explosions happen per year from space debris. We don’t notice simply because so much of the world is Arctic, Antarctic, Oceans, Sahara…. so a very bright flash in the Sahara noon day sun will not be noticed by many folks… and one over the Arctic in December has few folks to see it either. ( Most of them happening high in the air too). Even the 1908 Tunguska Event would have faded from notice in prior centuries. (Those close enough to see it well being killed, those far enough away to not be bothered by it, not seeing much but a flash / boom on the horizon ‘somewhere’; those in the middle being dismissed as cranks and not being very many anyway.)

    We’ve now had some ‘grazers’ caught on film so we can see giant rocks making fireballs as they transit the air (high enough up that they didn’t explode) one famous one being over a series of summer football games so folks were ‘camera in hand’.

    But just the notion that about 2 x year there’s a couple of kilo-ton of TNT equivalent going “bang / flash” somewhere overhead is a bit creepy… even if nobody is outside at 4 am to see it in The Southern Ocean… ( There was an ‘ambiguous’ event or two near South Africa some years back. Wags assert it was a joint South African / Israeli nuke bomb test. Others have asserted it was a natural flash event. The satellite data were a bit poor…)

    We life in a shooting gallery and don’t notice. We have highly variable rates of ‘debris and dust’ being dumped into the air, but assume it is “average” all the time so not having an effect on ‘climate’…

  17. Pascvaks says:

    Thoughts-
    First a little pic to set the scene –
    http://www.enterprisemission.com/images/Taurid-stream1.gif
    - Comets pass by and load the system by filling ‘spaces’ in space with dust.
    - Debris tends to stay put unless forces act upon it.
    - The inner and middle solar system is a ‘disk’ and forces attract and flatten the debris outside the disk into the disk over time.

    So comet in, comet scatters debris, system forces ‘flatten’ everything into the disk, various forces like planets in the disk attract and mix the mess further, some debris gets too close and falls to earth (and to other bodies and the sun), process goes on until Sun goes BOOM!.

    A list of ‘Showers’ a’la Wikipedia -
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_meteor_showers
    They’re article on Meteor Showers had a list too, which seemed to have a hole in Jan-Feb-Mar, but as you can see from the list above, there is no hole. Showers in every part of the year, seemingly from everywhere along the orbit, and if we’ve been cleaning up our orbit like a good little planet, as well as the other ‘wanderers’ I’m sure, I have a feeling that there’s ‘fields and rings’ of ‘stuff’ between each of the planets; of course, nothing that compares to the Asteriod Belt.

    I imagine ‘everything’ gets flattened, including water molicules and gases and other liquids, within the inner and middle disk of the Sun (and other, similar stars). If so, wouldn’t you think that it would show on spectroscopic analysis; and wouldn’t you think, in certain wavelengths that ever star would have ‘rings’. There has to be star rings, how else did we get where we are today?

    PS: Bet there’s just gott’a be rain, real rain, falling on all the planets; and some wierd rain too on the giants – we are what we eat;-)

  18. Pascvaks says:

    EM- Thanks for your last, didn’t see it until after I posted my last comment, above;-)

  19. agimarc says:

    One of the working theories about the Taurid Complex (including the dust making up Zodiacal Light) is that the total initial mass of the comet required something 50 – 100 km in diameter that was locked into a short period orbit and fragmented 20 – 30k years ago. There are about 15 identified comets and asteroids with similar orbital elements.

    The YD guys are playing with a working theory that the YD was caused by a comet storm (actually at least two) centered somewhere in Michigan and somewhere in northern Mexico. They are gathering observations on what they refer to as comet storms – think thousands up on thousands of Tunguska sized events over the course of an hour or so as the earth passes through a well populated part of the stream. Essentially a continental extinction event. You can find a bunch of their stuff here:

    http://cosmictusk.com/
    http://craterhunter.wordpress.com/
    http://cometstorm.wordpress.com/

    More interesting is the notion of large comets that fragment and pass thru the inner solar system. Today, right now, we have the remains of at least two working – the Taurid Complex and the Kreutz Group. Hale Bopp, also about 50 km in diameter is thought to be a candidate for future orbital capture by Jupiter and injection into the inner solar system. 2-3 three of these things going on right now, today means unpleasant comet encounters are a lot more common than we used to think. Cheers -

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