The Kyoto protocol is slowly limping to an end. The “parties” agreed to agree on a future agreement to be negotiated to extend the agreed agreement to some unknown future date to be agreed on later… that hasn’t been delivered…
So there’s some “controversy” over the actual expiration in 2012.
Some folks are saying “we agreed to agree so it continues in force” while others are saying “Contract said 2012. No new contract. It’s over.” I have not found any clear indication of the actual legal status (but expect something ‘dramatic’ to be attempted at COP(out)18 in Qatar where the tax payer funded party gets underway just after Thanksgiving Feast is over.
So while the various UN Parasites suck down high end drinks and food (and tons of CO2 each to get to exotic fun destinations for their pleasures) and worry obsessively about what kind of light bulb you like; expect the news flow to turn to how the weather had gone wild and something BIG has to be done NOW (especially if it involves moving money from the EU and USA to China and the Former USSR). As the EU is in the process of slow financial implosion and as the USA would need to borrow the money from China to pay it to China, I’m not seeing much reason for enthusiasm by those countries. Yet the True Believers in “Global Warming Catastrophe” will not look beyond the thing immediately in front of their noses (most likely a nice Brie, some Chardonnay, and a bit of Russian Caviar on a crisp…) and will push for “Something Must Be Done” (never mind that nothing CAN be done to cure a non-existent problem via methods that do not work).
Sometimes you find things in the strangest places. Like this list of the folks sucking up the goodies from the Public Trough:
The COP includes (see Bodies for the function of each committee) (3):
• CMP – Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol
• SBSTA – Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice
• SBI – Subsidiary Body for Implementation
• AWG-KP – Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol
• AWG-LCA – Ad hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention
• ADP – Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action
• Bureau of the COP
• Compliance Committee
• CDM EB – Executive Board of the Clean Development Mechanism
• JISC – Joint Implementation Supervisory Committee
• TEC – Technology Executive Committee
• LEG – Least Developed Countries Expert Group
• CGE – Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications
• United Nations institutional linkage
• GEF – Global Environment Facility
• IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• AFB – Adaptation Fund Board
• TC-GCF – Transitional Committee for the Green Climate Fund
These resource suckers multiply so much they make rabbits look slow…
It would be interesting to figure out the total $ (or Euros) sucked up in any given year by all this nonsense….
It also includes one of the most bizarre “org charts” I’ve ever seen:
Bad as that might be, having a gaggle of mindless bureaucrats sucking down the goodies on your dime is pretty much to be expected. More interesting to me is why Son Of Kyoto is not going to work. It all comes down to China & Russia, IMHO, but honorable mention would go to Brazil and India.
This chart kind of shows why (from that same link, though they picked it up from the EPA per their link:
Notice that the USA is NOT the bulk of that graph, and more importantly, our “growth” of emissions is modest at best while the huge growth is “not in the USA” (nor in the EU). Now notice that the year marking ends in 2002 and the last data is from 2006. Gee, haven’t we reduced emissions since then? (Recession and all those energy intensive industries packing up and moving to China).
Here’s a more recent graph for up to 2008 for fossil fuels and ‘some industrial gasses’ from:
Again, the USA is not the big lump it once was. China and “Other” are both bigger and, taken together, are over 1/2 of all emissions. THEY are the ones who must agree to cut back if anything is to be reduced. The USA at 19% and the EU at 13% are just not going to make any difference. (IFF cut in half, that’s 9.5% + 6.5% or 16% globally. That will be completely swamped by growth in China and “other”. Look again at the growth at the right edge of the first chart… China and that black chunk at the top are the fastest growth.)
What I find spectacularly illustrated by these two charts is just how putting on “Carbon Limits” on some nations (EU and Industrialized Nations) simply moves the growth to those exempted (along with the jobs, wealth, and industrial production). We said it would happen, and it’s pretty darned easy to see it in action. That, and the $16 Trillion debt we’ve racked up trying to live on a credit card without the industrial production here to create wealth to pay for it.)
The Problem for Son Of Kyoto
It’s pretty simple. Kyoto was about moving wealth from the USA and EU to the Former Soviet Union (FSU), China, and other “lesser developed nations”. As the EU and USA are no longer possessed of that wealth, there isn’t any to move.
It was about moving production and industrialization TO lesser developed nations (to let them ‘catch up’…). As that’s a ‘done deal’ there’s nothing left to move, really. China has won. We’re in the end game of the hand.
At MOST, the USA can lever more onto the Chinese Credit Card (provided they agree to the scam), which is just that much more which will be repudiated (either directly and blatantly in some kind of political ‘dust up’, or more likely, via the subtle repudiation of high inflation rates.)
At MOST, the EU can make more promises it doesn’t deliver. Germany is nearing “tapped out” just carrying Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain on it’s back. The EU collectively can’t pony up any more without complete collapse (and, IMHO, might already be beyond the point of no return financially). “Green Jobs” in Spain have resulted in an entire generation of “youth” that live on the welfare of others, with unemployment over 50% in that demographic. At that point the end is pretty much baked in.
Both the EU and the USA have a “Demographic Bomb” exploding right now, with way too many people expecting to retire on moneys to be extracted from a younger demographic that:
a) Is physically too small to carry that many retired people.
b) Largely is unemployed now anyway.
c) Is going to inherit an economy gutted of industrial capacity.
d) Will be trying to do that WHILE carrying a crushing debt load.
For the USA the “excess entitlements” is somewhere over $200 Trillion. Nobody really knows the number. It simply can not be paid. For the EU it’s just as bad. (Worse, really, as countries like France and Greece are doing “exactly the wrong things” to establish the production of goods and services needed to support their retiring masses.)
Furthermore, Russia is interested in growing their economy and industrial production. That giant drop in emissions as the FSU collapsed is not permanent. They do not believe in a warming world and are preparing for cooling. So as long as the EU was willing to bribe them with a payoff for that ‘reduction’, they were ‘in’. As the EU can’t keep paying, that bribe is going to be hard pressed to continue (which implies a Russian Federation departure. Especially if “emissions” start to be accounted to the producer of the fuels, not to the place they are used. That has been proposed, BTW.)
China? What are they thinking? Well, other than “Laughing all the way to the bank” and encouraging us to continue cutting our own economic throats:
US-China Trade in the News 12-08-2011 Update: The Kyoto Pact
The expiration of the Kyoto Protocol was “hot” news this week. An international treaty, the Kyoto Protocol is aimed at fighting global warming with the goal of achieving the “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.” It is due to expire in 2012. Developing nations, led by China, India and Brazil, say another round of commitments under Kyoto is essential to keep the climate talks on track. China and India had no targets under that treaty and since have become two of the world’s three biggest polluters. The U.S. never ratified the pact. Meanwhile, the European Union, which has done the most to limit carbon-dioxide emissions since Kyoto came into force, has said it won’t extend the pact unless ministers sign on to a “road map” setting a date for all nations – including big developing ones – to take on mandatory targets.
Elsewhere, the argument concerning solar power continued. American solar panel manufacturers won a round against China when the United States International Trade Commission reached a preliminary conclusion that solar panel manufacturers were being harmed by imports from China. Following that decision, Democratic lawmakers wrote a letter to President Barack Obama urging an investigation into Chinese solar imports, which they say don’t fairly compete with domestic products. China voiced deep concerns regarding the investigation. All this, and more, in today’s US-China trade news update.
So China wants “more of the same”… EU paying and them getting a free ride. The EU wants to rope them into the same limits (and strangled economic growth).
China Sets Conditions for Binding Climate Deal
By Ewa Krukowska – Dec 4, 2011 5:45 AM PT
China set out its conditions for adopting a binding post-2020 greenhouse-gas commitment as part of a global deal, demanding an extension of current pledges by industrialized countries under the Kyoto Protocol beyond 2012.
Developing nations should be allowed to stick to voluntary targets to limit pollution until a legally-binding treaty that could take effect after 2020, Xie Zhenhua, the head of the Chinese delegation to the United Nations climate talks, said after he arrived in Durban, South Africa, for the second week of the conference. China’s consent for the shift to mandatory goals also hinges on climate aid from richer countries and a review of actions taken by 2015, he said.
So China wants not only to win the economic war and have another (nearly) decade to achieve stable global dominance of manufacturing and trade (THEN agree to a ‘lock in’…) but also wants to continue to be PAID for the privilege.
IMHO, the biggest thing of interest in COP-18 will be watching the players and seeing, through their actions and claims, what their hidden agendas might be.
So we can see here the reflection of the economic ‘facts on the ground’. Industry fleeing to countries that are exempt. FSU and China agreeing to play as long as they are paid. (AND China demanding an exemption). The EU and USA having massive economic ‘erosion’ and productivity flight to China (and others). Western debt rocketing out of sight as wealth creation turns into “eating your seed corn”.
That’s the legacy of Kyoto.
It’s also the reason that Son Of Kyoto either will not happen, or if it does arrive, will not be honored. It simply is not possible for the EU and USA to pay China and Russia to play. Neither of us has the money. China and Russia will tire of “pretty paper” that doesn’t buy anything. As the debt repudiation (that must happen one way or another due to the Demographic Bomb) hits, the whole thing unravels.
One can hope that these realities will be recognized at COP-18 as China and Russia realize that the money will not be coming and that the “Free Ride” exemption is no longer acceptable. (Even if they are promised the money and the free ride, that just means no reduction in emissions will happen and they will be paid with worthless paper, so still no result.)
But the show will be fun to watch…
The entire structure of Kyoto was a wealth transfer from Rich nations to Poor nations. It was to hobble the west and enrich those invested in the planned money transfer and industrial movement. That game has played out. It’s a done deal. So not enough left in the ‘host nations’ for the parasites dinner… That, IMHO, is why Son Of Kyoto will be a ‘brain fart’ at best. Full of sound and fury signifying nothing.
But the catering will be excellent…