Historically, there’s a tendency for more volcanoes to show up in cold times. There’s a fair amount of confusion about it, with some folks saying they cause the cold, and others saying they come after the cold is underway. Yet more say it’s just a random coincidence.
We’ve had the sun go very very quiet, and “warming” promptly halted. (IMHO to turn to significant coldening in the next decade or two). So, is there anything else going on that fits the pattern? (Other than that cold British winter last year and the rather wet and cold winter in the Southern Hemisphere this winter…)
There was just a news flash on Fox or CNN ( I was channel hoping again ;-) about a volcano in Russia getting ready to pop. Unfortunately, I can’t find a link for that story right now. Perhaps in a bit.
But I did find this interesting ‘story’ to add to the news flow:
From last summer, we have this speculation about what might be the pattern:
Russian volcano activity causes global concern
bne – 07.02.2011
Now the world has something else to grip about when it comes to Russia – the weather.
A string of volcanoes on Russia’s eastern seaboard of Kamchatka have been unusually active for the last six months. The dust they threw up diverted winds in the Arctic, pushing cold air over Europe and North America and causing the unusually cold winter this year, say scientists.
The volcanoes (160 in total, of which 29 are active) are still on the go and could create more problems this year, depressing harvests around the world just as global food prices soar and culminating in a second freezing winter next Christmas.
As we are now approaching “next Christmas” it will be very interesting to see what this all means… Here’s what they were worried about then:
The eruptions have come at the worst possible time. The Pacific Ocean has already been cooled by the so-called La Nina – which contributed to the deluge in Australia and Tropical Cyclones – while at the same time the Atlantic Ocean is warmer than usual, say climatologists. Erste Bank says the combination of this means the weather forecast for the first quarter of this year is extreme, which will hit both the agricultural and mining sectors, sending already spiking prices up even faster. “These climatic conditions reduce the outlooks of harvest for agricultural commodities (last year was also bad) and prevent the mining of commodities like coal,” says Erste. “The extreme weather will probably culminate in the [first quarter] – this is the reason why the prices of commodities will be influenced by this weather… then an acceleration of consumer inflation… There are also problems for transport due to strong storms.”
The combination shifts wind patterns around the world, but the spanner in the works has been the Kamchatka volcanoes, which are throwing massive amounts of dust into the air, causing the Arctic to become even colder and Arctic winds to push farther south, resulting in a very drastic change in patterns. “Kamchatka tends to be somewhat active – but recently it has been ridiculous! Since late November, Kizimen, Sheveluch, Karymsky, and Kliuchevskoi have been erupting almost constantly,” Evelyn Browning Garriss writes in the Browning Newsletter, a monthly weather publication.
Volcanic ash screens out the sun, cooling the air below. This lowers air pressures, which in turn changes wind patterns, especially in the Arctic. The upshot is, Browning Garriss says, “the cold air normally trapped around the North Pole surges south.”
So now we’ve got an “Alert” being issued for more Russian Volcano activity and we’ve got a prediction that it might happen and make thing even colder than last winter. We’ve got a sleepy sun and increasing volcanoes, and we’ve got an historical pattern of cold coming with a particular orbital cycle and solar slowdown, accompanied by volcanoes.
Coincidence? I don’t think geology and astrophysics works on coincidence all that often…
Now if Katla starts waking up…
So far, all I’ve found is this from a day ago:
Tuesday 4th December 2012
Tolbachik Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia
Seismic activity has declined but the eruption continues at Tolbachik volcano, Kamchatka. During the peak activity on 28-29 November 2012 the fissures spread over tens of kilometres, and the eruption was heard 60 kilometres away. The current eruption is similar to the Great Fissure eruption in 1975-76, but lower in intensity. A fissure 5 kilometres long has formed on the southern slope of the Plosky Tolbachik, in the same area as 36 years ago, but at a higher elevation – about two thousand metres above sea level. There are two active centres which are producing lava flows. A 10 kilometre long lava flow destroyed a monitoring station of the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology on Vodopadny creek, as well as the Leningradskaya station of the institute. A base of the Volcanoes of Kamchatka natural park has also been destroyed in the same area. Ashfall was reported 65 kilometres from the volcano up to a depth of 4 cm. Eruptions at the upper fissure have stopped, but the lower fissure continues to be active. Tolbachik volcano is 343 kilometres south west of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.