Gail Combs Notices The Cold and The Clock

Over on WUWT, down in comments on sea level rise, is a rather interesting statement by Gail Combs. Including references. In particular, what I found very interesting (though I’m not sure exactly how to interpret it) is the following graph:

Length of Arctic Melt Season

So, I presume it is shorter due to the return of the cold, and not running out of ice (as the ice cap didn’t completely leave). Yet it would be good to find out more about exactly what it means. Does it really mean that it got cold sooner?

I also really hope that ‘plunge’ recently is NOT the start of a long term trend…

So, the comment, in full and in context:

Begin Quote

My prediction is it will drop by the end of the century.

….The ice melted back partially, and there followed a long ‘middling’ phase in which the climate oscillated between warmer and colder conditions, often in sudden jumps. During some parts of this phase, conditions in the tropics may have been moister than they are at present, and at other times they were drier….

For the time period between 115,000 and 14,000 years ago, 24 of these short lived warm events have so far been recognized from the Greenland ice core data (where they are called ‘Dansgaard-Oeschger events’), although many lesser warming events also occurred (Dansgaard et al. 1993). From the speed of the climate changes recorded in the Greenland ice cap (Dansgaard et al. 1989), and by observation of the speed of change in sedimentation conditions on land, it is widely believed that the complete ‘jump’ in climate occurred over only a few decades. The interstadials lasted for varying spans of time, usually a few centuries to about 2,000 years, before an equally rapid cooling returned conditions to their previous state. Recent study of high-resolution deep sea cores (Bond et al. 1997) suggests that for at least the last 30,000 years, interstadials tended to occur at the warmer points of a background north Atlantic (and global?) temperature cycle which had a periodicity of around 1500 years.

A quick background to the last ice age

So the ice core and deep sea core data show sudden jumps in temperature. The Greenland Ice coregraph shows peaks not plateaus for the warming spikes.

Everyone looks at the amount of ice in the Arctic. No one bothers to look at the real indicator the length of the melt season or the increase in fall snow cover in the northern hemisphere

North America Snow Anomalies

or the August 06, 2012, Endless Winter for Alaska’s Mountains This Year [ Actual link missing in the comment, but I think I found the same story and link it down below. -E.M.Smith ]

…Department of Agriculture Snow Survey Supervisor Rick McClure. He said that it’s unusual to see snow still remaining in some of the mountains that surround Anchorage….May, June and July have all seen colder monthly averages, with July making the cut as the seventh-coldest July in history….. Adding the record-shattering snowfall into the mix, it’s possible the melt of last year’s snow could overlap with new snow falls that can occur as early as September.

Add in a quiet sun and the oceans going to the cooling mode I do not think sea level rise is in the cards.

NH solar energy overlay of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice core temperatures: http://theinconvenientskeptic.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/LI-Holocene.png”

Watts as Leading Indicator of cold

The paleo solar insolation is plotted from here

End Quote

Not looking like a shortage of snow in North America…

I’d seen a prediction for cold and snow in the UK. I’d seen some reports of it starting. I’d been thinking of making a posting of it. And here Gail not only covers the point, but brings in some interesting data sources and a very interesting graph. Kudos and a h/t. Well done!

Ok the ‘weather bits’:

The snow shows up in the UK:

First, as a prediction some days back.

Cold Snowy Britain:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2239556/UK-weather-forecast-Britain-faces-coldest-winter-100-years-Big-Freeze-follows-flood.html

MINUS 20C? Britain faces coldest winter for 100 years as Big Freeze follows floods with wind so strong it blows water upwards
Temperatures to plummet to minus 3°C this week and could fall as low as 20°C in December
Fears that snow blizzards could close roads and shut down rail networks as winter takes hold
But torrential rain which has deluged country and swamped St Asaph in North Wales will finally ease

By Vanessa Allen

PUBLISHED: 21:00 EST, 27 November 2012 | UPDATED: 19:06 EST, 28 November 2012

Britain will shiver tonight as temperatures plummet in the first taste of what promises to be one of our coldest winters for a century.

The cold snap is expected to last until the end of the week, creating dangerous conditions on the roads and adding to the misery of those already battling floods.

Temperatures could fall to as low as minus 3°c (27°f) in some places, with snow already falling in the Pennines. In Saltburn, North Yorkshire, northerly winds have become so strong that they are pushing water back up a cliff.

Yes, I have been sitting on that article for the last week waiting for something interesting to happen to back it up…

Then the reality starts:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2243251/UK-weather-A-little-snow–lot-chaos-airports-roads-hit-inch-falls.html

Thursday, Dec 06 2012 6AM

A little snow… and a lot of chaos: Airports and roads are hit as less than an inch falls

Southern England, the Midlands, the North East, Wales and Scotland were hit by brief snow shower early yesterday

More than 40 flights cancelled in brief closures at five major airports and delays of up to three hours

Sleet, frost and ice caused traffic chaos with ten-car pile-up on the London-bound A299 in Whitstable, Kent

Disruption on trains with rail replacement buses in operation and services cancelled and delayed

Last night council bosses admitted they had been caught out by the winter weather

One wonders how they were ‘caught out’ when it had been predicted fairly far in advance… Perhaps they are believers in “Global Warming”…

By Emma Reynolds, Paul Sims and Keith Gladdis

PUBLISHED: 03:17 EST, 5 December 2012 | UPDATED: 20:40 EST, 5 December 2012

A dusting of snow caused chaos at airports and on roads yesterday as council bosses admitted they had been caught out by the winter weather.

Southern England, the Midlands, the North East, Wales and Scotland were hit by a brief snow shower early in the morning after forecasters warned temperatures would plunge to minus 8C.

In most places the snow amounted to less than an inch but it grounded more than 40 flights, closed schools and left major roads in gridlock.
Five airports, including Stansted and Luton, closed temporarily, leaving passengers stranded.

But that’s not all…
It’s been cold ‘down under’ the last couple of years:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/8213932/Wintry-weather-brings-snow-to-Australia-in-midsummer.html

Wintry weather brings snow to Australia in midsummer
Australia normally experiences temperatures of 86F (30C) at this time of year, but the chances of a rare white Christmas have increased after plunging temperatures and snow swept across the east of the country.

By Bonnie Malkin, Sydney

11:24AM GMT 20 Dec 2010

Freezing winds from Antarctica, blown up to Australia by a low-pressure system in the Southern Ocean, gave the country a taste of the conditions that are causing havoc across Europe.

Some 11 inches of snow fell at the ski fields in New South Wales, raising the prospect that parts of the country could experience a white Christmas.

“It’s white, everything is white,” Michelle Lovius, the general manager of the Kosciuszko Chalet Hotel at Charlotte Pass, said.

“First thing this morning everything was just very still, very peaceful and every single thing was just blanketed in a thick cover of white.”

At the ski fields, children in Father Christmas hats, who would usually be sunning themselves on the grassy slopes, made snowballs and rode on sleds.

Miss Lovius said such a large amount of snow was unusual for early December, normally the peak of the wild flower season in the mountainous region.

This year I’ve found a ‘Ski Report’ with snow still on the slopes:

http://www.j2ski.com/snow_forecast/Australia/

Snow Reports and Snow Forecasts for Australia. Covering the period from Thursday 6th December 2012 to Thursday 13th December 2012.

170 cm Thredbo
105 cm Perisher Blue

South Africa having a bit of late snow this year:

http://snowreport.co.za/

Snow Forecast : WC 24th/25th November 2012
24/11/2012 Snow Predictions

It would appear that winter is not over in the Western Cape, with light snow being predicted over the high ground of the Western Cape this evening, and in the early hours of tomorrow morning.

“The most likely period for snow over the SW-Cape mountains is overnight (Sat 24th into Sun 25th), with the freezing level is likely to be down as low as 1500m by this evening (15Z). If snow does fall it is likely to be rather light, due to limited moisture. ” – extracted from Storm Chasing South Africa

So looks like the Southern Hemisphere cold is not leaving, even while the Northern Hemisphere snows begin in earnest. I think it will be increasingly difficult to hide THIS decline… I’d be interested in finding out if this summer is abnormally cool in the Southern Hemisphere anywhere.

Alaska Aug 2012 endless winter:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/endless-winter-for-alaskas-mou/68876

Endless Winter for Alaska’s Mountains This Year
By Samantha Kramer, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
August 06, 2012; 8:38 PM

There aren’t many places you can go to in the United States to see snow in August, and usually, even Anchorage, Alaska, isn’t one of them.

But the city is still dealing with leftover snow from last winter in its bordering mountain ranges. The all-time record snowfall of 133.6 inches last winter – just over 11 feet – could give Anchorage an endless winter.
[…]
The combination of heavy snowfall and a cool spring caused the lingering snow, said United States Department of Agriculture Snow Survey Supervisor Rick McClure. He said that it’s unusual to see snow still remaining in some of the mountains that surround Anchorage.

“Most of the time snow melts in the mountains, unless it’s a glacier or snowfield,” McClure said. “We’ve had snow in 4,000-feet elevations that usually melts by early June stay until that time in July. It’s very rare to see snow in the mountains that close to the solstice.”

So add it all together and what have you got?

IMHO, 1998 was what on stock charts is called a ‘blow off top’. An “outside tickmark” that spikes way high, but punctuates the end of a trend and hard reversal the other way. We’re headed down now. Briefly this solar cycle held the line almost flat as the sun tried to ‘ramp up’, but now that we’re past peak (what there is of it) in this cycle, it’s dropping. Fast.

As the “W/m^2” are below that where a glacial is ‘quasi stable’ (that is, it can be colder and hold there) all it takes is some nice white that doesn’t go away fast and the net accumulation of snow starts… then doesn’t leave. IFF we are very lucky, that won’t happen on THIS dip, and we’ve got to the next one (in another 179 or so years) and get another nice ‘warm pop’ before the Big Plunge. If we are not lucky, the albedo change sticks and we are on a 100,000 year trip into the ice box, starting now. (The good thing is that it takes so long we ought to have plenty of time to adjust. The bad thing is that, like the Little Ice Age, you can have rapid cold spikes.)

So there you have it. Cold. Not hot. Not “Global Warming”. Snow. Snow in the UK. Snow in North America. And even Snow in Australia in summer just two years ago.

I think it’s going to be a long cold decade ahead…

Subscribe to feed

Advertisement