EPU - Peru iShares ETF ILF - Latin 40 "Majors" fund SPY - S&P 500 benchmark JJC - Copper commodity ETN SCCO - Southern Copper BWP - Banko Wese Limitado LUZS - Luz del Sur (Light of the South) [Ticker not in Bigcharts ] PREY - Peru Real Estate [Ticker not in Bigcharts ] TDP - Telephonica del Peru [Ticker not in Bigcharts ]
First off, prices look to just ‘lay there’ for a couple of months, them move rapidly in one. Plan any trades / investments accordingly. It looks to me like about once a quarter, but not on the usual quarter dates. SCCO Southern Copper has the best rise, while the bank Banko Wese is more laid back. Easily beating the Latin Majors, but under the S&P 500 for the year (though rising faster and beating it over the last 6 months).
Overall, it looks like a “commodity country” with particular leverage to the price of copper. So if economic activity picks up, so do copper prices, so ought Peru ETF and SCCO. In economic downturns, things can drop fast. So “watch copper” if trading or owning EPU or SCCO. Generally looking like “buy the dips”, and “sell the rips” with right now being “part way into a dip”. Given the ‘several months and a jump’ pattern, one has time to think about it and double check.
This next chart is more of a mess. Tickers with more violent swings and less interesting. Also some “pink sheets” or “OTC Over The Counter” tickers that are also not in Bigcharts are listed.
EPU - Peru iShares ETF GLD - Gold ETF EWW - Mexico ETF benchmark CEMTY - CEMENTOS LIMA LEVEL-I BVN - COMPANIA DE MINAS BUENAVENTURA "B"SHARES JJT - Tin ETN JJN - Nickel ETN SLV - Silver ETF IFNHBYP - CORPORACION INTERBANC "B" SHARES [Ticker not in Bigcharts] FRYSYP - FERREYROS COMMON SHARES 144A [Ticker not in Bigcharts] FERXY - FERREYROS COMMON SHARES LEVEL-I [Ticker not in Bigcharts] TLNEY - TELE 2000 COMMON SHARES LEVEL I [Ticker not in Bigcharts]
Tin and Nickel rising, so mining and minerals companies and countries ought to be doing well. (Or the $US is dropping faster…) Silver doing the same “surfing down” that gold is doing. Which leaves me wondering why BVN is dropping. Not a good sign. (Perhaps just tied into low price contracts and will reverse later, or they mine silver ;-), but needs investigation). CEMTY the cement company, is going great guns, but very volatile. And very thin. Only traded 748 shares today. So NO “market” orders, only “limit” orders… and don’t expect to exit any position in a hurry…
EWW The Mexico ETF, is beating Peru, but looking more tired. I’d likely rotate out of Mexico into Peru (were I actually IN Mexico) and back after Mexico “takes a dip”.
It does look like there are some “spikes” in volume near bottoms (but not as clean as I’d like due to being thinly traded) and some spikes in volatility then too. Tops have some ‘low volatility’ indications, and some drop off in volume, but not definitive (i.e. there are exceptions). Momentum seems to “call the ball” relatively well. (Visualize the change of slope of the first derivative line or the “envelope” of the dark blobs. Below zero and infect toward up, buy. Above zero and inflect toward down, sell. Flat lined at the middle with little dips – dead money, but for ‘slow traders’ looks like that gives a lot of time to prepare order plans.)
Overall Conclusion: Reasonable place to put a modest position. Looks like “dipped” at the moment and so the next “rise” ought to be about 2 months out. I’d wait for about late March / early April and then buy in (but watch sooner just to make sure I’ve got this cycle pegged right from only one look ;-) SCCO for folks looking for more “juice”, but watch it closely as copper can move fast and that will ‘crack the whip’ on copper miners.
List of ADRs here (h/t Adolfo for the link):
Contents of EPU ETF here:
At the time of this posting:
CREDICORP LTD 20.93%
SOUTHERN COPPER CORP 12.71%
CIA DE MINAS BUENAVENTUR-ADR 9.82%
GRANA Y MONTERO SAA 5.46%
ALICORP S.A.-COMUN 4.93%
VOLCAN CIA MINERA SAA-CMN B 4.81%
INTERCORP FINANCIAL SER INC 3.92%
HOCHSCHILD MINING PLC 3.70%
MINSUR SA-INVERSIONES 3.06%
RIO ALTO MINING LTD 2.97%
Yahoo! Finance page on EPU: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=epu&ql=1
Yet to do:
Track down those tickers not in Bigcharts and see if Yahoo or others have them.
Check the tickers with my broker to see if they are still traded.
Find any other Peru related tickers, funds, bonds, etc.
Put in links to any other interesting sources on Peru financial markets.
I don’t know that all of those will be done, but anyone who has time and interest can “so what they like” and add links in comments.
So that’s what we have “for now” on Peru stocks and tickers.