I’m making this as an ‘infrastructure’ posting of live charts, but there will be some comments about how it looks “today” after it.
The idea is to show specific ETF (Exchange Traded Funds) tickers for individual countries or regions, each on a chart by itself. In that way, the indicators for each ticker can be seen in one scan of the page. Selected benchmark tickers will be on each graph.
We will start with North America, then Europe, Asia, then Australia / Latin America. Why that order? It is roughly the order of markets interest on my part…
All the charts here are from Bigcharts.com and you are encouraged to go there and practice making and using your own charts. It is an important skill and you can also then ‘run a chart’ whenever you want, and without depending on me…
S&P 500 Benchmark vs Other US Mkts
Clearly bonds have rolled over and money is running into stocks. QQQQ the Nasdaq 100 is not keeping up. Something is wrong in tech land and with Apple (that makes up a large part of QQQQ).
We use SPY as the benchmark as it is hard to beat most of the time. TLT are long duration bonds, so show when money is scared (rising) or The Fed is making bonds a waste of time (falling). Holding 1/2 bonds and 1/2 SPY is a good basic hedge position to start from as they often move in opposition. QQQQ Nasdaq 100 is both a Tech indicator and a market enthusiasm indicator. It is heavily influenced by AAPL Apple Computer.
RSI is presently “near 80” and MACD has gone ‘flat sideways’. ADX is high (above 30) so a strong trend and saying to use MACD. DMI+ blue line is ‘on top’ so a positive trend in progress. This says an ongoing bull market run, but a potential for a ‘correction’ soon as RSI doesn’t hang out near 80 for long. That price has been well above the SMA stack for a while also is worrying. PSAR Parabolic Stop and Reversal (the red dots) have almost caught up to price. A stop loss order ought to be placed near that point now, if not just selling out. (At least, that’s what the indicator says to do).
Next we look at volume for the same ticker.
Price continues to hug the top Bollinger Band (those outside red lines) and has not yet pulled away, so not YET a top. RUT the Russel 2000 small stocks is keeping pace with SPY, so that QQQQ problem is likely directly tied to AAPL or tech in particular, not a broad small market effect at all. DIA are the 30 Big Capitalization stocks in the Dow 30 “Industrials” (that are no longer really industrials havig things like banks in there). They are a bit behind SPY but about the same slope as RUT and SPY. This is a broad move.
At the far right edge, the “price bars” are getting very compressed. Not good. Not good at all. Price ranges are wide at bottoms (buy points) and very narrow / short at tops. Now look at volume. On the last few “up” days, volume has dried up and died. Buying is just not there to the upside. Very worry inducing. Maybe it is just things slowing down for the POTUS / TOTUS to give his speech. Tomorrow will tell. If volume spikes back to normal, that was it. If not…
Volatility is also ‘way low’. Also “very bad”. But means that it is cheap to buy puts to protect positions. Time to put some puts behind any gains or just ‘step aside’. ( I usually put in a close ‘stop loss order’ and raise it day by day, letting the market decide when to sell me out. Sometimes I’ll just sell. Occasionally I use puts.)
Momentum is still positive, but looks like a tiny ‘go flat’ at the end.
Now we do have The Fed trying to inflate a bubble like crazy, so “Don’t fight The Fed” applies. Yet we are also headed into a budget “sequestration ‘food fight'” real soon now. In those cross currents I’d take at least 1/2 off the table and protect the rest with stops or puts.
Nasdaq 100 QQQQ
How about a close up look at that QQQQ ticker?
Start at the bottom with ADX. It is ‘below 25’. Way below at about 7. That says “dead trend” fast trades on Slow Stochastic or similar only. But looking at the line ‘lately’, there isn’t really enough ‘ripple’ there to make trades worth it. Avoid Nasdaq for a while… PSAR is closing in on the price line as well. RSI has ‘gone flat’ near the middle and MACD is positive, but not by much, and likely to go to near zero if the trend says flat. Just no ‘there there’ right now.
Prices pulled away from the top Bollinger Band and the ‘range’ between the two has narrowed. Again, not good. The SMA stack is starting to ‘weave’ with price and at the very far right, on slightly up prices, volume has just died. Volatility is low. Momentum has left the building too. No reason to be in Nasdaq 100 right now…
Canada – Resource stock heavy
This one surprised me. I expected Canada to be doing better, what with the strong Looney and oil and all. Here it is less than the SPY and about an Emerging Market match, but in a ‘go flat’.
After the RSI 80 touch 5 months back, it is just ‘wedging in’ to flat. PSAR making those little ‘lids’ it makes over price when a ticker is ‘chopping sideways’. ADX is about 15 and falling. Dead money or fast Slow Stochastic swing trades only. MACD is above zero, but not much, and trending toward zero. DMI -/+ are about to weave.
Time to be out of Canada it would seem.
Mexico – 1/2 Emerging, 1/2 USA leverage, part resources
Interesting that Mexico has been out performing the USA. Stronger currency too. Sad that…
It looks to me like presently entering a small ‘correction’ so likely a buy opportunity ‘soon’.
RSI is ‘near 80’ so a downturn ‘soon’ (that looks to be started). Tickers in steady runs up will have RSI range from 50 to 80. Those that are rolling over will drop to lower levels. MACD is a nice strong 1 (whole digits) but is ‘red on top’ right now, so ‘correction’ in progress (or rollover… time will tell). Watch for a crossover to blue on top or put a trailing ‘buy if touched’ order on it. ADX at 30 says use MACD and trend is strong, but it has inflected downward so is a bit of a worry. DMI has red /blue weaving. So either a reversal of trend or a ‘buy the dip’.
All in all, worth watching Mexico and expect it to be a ‘buy the dip’. But be a ‘reluctant buyer’…
EU / UK / Europe
The UK vs EU vs USA
The UK is in a nice trend (in $US) but not beating the alternative benchmarks. Not much reason to ‘go there’.
Here we use EZU the EU Composite ETF in addition to SPY as a benchmark. If SPY is beating, the USA is the place to be, if EZU is beating any given ticker, there is a ‘hotter ticker’ in another part of the EU.
EZU had more of a swoon a while back, but a stronger rise out of it. Now it has a hook down at the end, so ‘correcting’. Likely some of those divergences have to do with all three currencies moving this last year.
PSAR being “choppy” with dashes of dots above and below price. Sideways rolling swing trades then. ADX confirms that with 20 and dropping saying trend is leaving. Red / Blue DMI +/- ‘weaving’ says the same. MACD hardly positive at all and trending to zero. RSI just “laying there” on 50 uninteresting. Walk away. Just walk away…
Germany, Core of Industrial Europe
Had a nice run. Clearly a major part of the EU Composite fund. Euro trending up will be starting to hurt exports and profits, though.
RSI was ‘near 80’ a month ago and now had a ‘lower high’. That usually means “Last call to bail out”. PSAR called an exit (when price touched the red dots below price) and has swapped to a “Don’t buy until through this line” lid on top. MACD red on top, inflected downward. Correction under way. ADX at 25 says “use MACD” trend is strong enough, but it is headed down too. DMI has gone ‘red on top’, so ‘be out’.
No reason to stay in Germany right now, though a potential ‘buy the dip’. Watch for buy indications before doing so, though.
France, The other Point Of View in the EU
Substantially the same indications as Germany. A bit stronger DMI- reading. Price clearly “dipping”. I’d shift to a 10 day hourly chart and day trade in on a ‘dip reversal’ and then stay in if a trailing stop loss or the ‘day trade chart’ didn’t take me out and the prior trend resumes. I’d not buy in longer term and hold without a confirmation on this chart of trend up resuming.
A Bit of Asia
After a bit swoon, a quick recovery. But with big dips. Choppy. (Nice for trading though, gives good indicates on the indicators that way.) Asia ex-Japan is beating it though. (Australia is part of that ticker, so check out the Australians…)
RSI touched 80, and price rolled down. Other times, a month later, it ran back up. This time it legged down more. A sign of weakness. MACD is clearly ‘red on top’ and headed below zero. DMI- (red) is on top too. Both say “stay out”. ADX at ’20 something’ is a bit vague. I’d trade this ticker on a faster chart (10 day hourly) or use slow stochastic crossovers, but not buy for longer term. It looks ‘toppy’ to me with prices stalled to the upside for the last month, then a breakdown. I’d mostly avoid it.
Bank of Japan announced “bugger the currency” and their market took off. Not sure that’s a great way to increase wealth creation, though. Still, it is a fairly new run in a very well established market. “Don’t fight The Fed” also translates to “Don’t fight the BOJ”. EWY South Korea was beating it nicely, then North Korea blew up a new nuke, and it looks to be taking a hard down. EPP looks better, though. Still, as a small position, tossing a bit at BOJ and their currency blow job might be worth it.
RSI looks to be doing the 50 – 80 oscillation of a young run. MACD is positive and blue on top, with inflections matching buy / sell points in the past. ADX is only 20, so a weak trend, but rising. DMI has blue on top. Looks like it has legs, if only strolling and not sprinting…
Update: I’ve added fxy the Yen to the chart. News flow has Soros making another $Billion out of a “short yet long Japanese stocks” position.
There are two India tickers on here. EPI has higher volume and a dividend screen. IIF is lower volume, but more price rise. The average o the two is about EEM equivalent, so no great shakes, and clearly it’s a ‘stock pickers market’ as the two funds have very different performance.
I lost interest in India a year or two back when their Fiance Minister announced some capital controls. One of my rules. My money, my control. You want to lock me in, I leave as fast as possible and don’t look back.
We’ve got RSI with ‘lower highs’, but in a thin ticker it can be less accurate. ADX is down near 10 and has DMI red on top. Not interesting. MACD red on top at zero. Very not interesting. PSAR has gone to ‘lid on top’ be out. Just not really interested.
Oceana / Australia
The EPP Asia ex-Japan has some Australia in it. I’d expect to see good things here based on that.
Clearly EPP moves strongly with Australia and Australia has been doing very well (in $US as their currency is holding value and ours is not…)
PSAR catching up to price, so likely a ‘dip soon’ that would be a buy point. Beating Japan, and with a better slope than SPY. Only question is how much more it can run. (Or is that how weak can the $US get?…) RSI doing a ‘slighly below 50 to near 75’ roll from the looks of it. MACD positive and smooth sideways. ADX above 25 at near 30 says use MACD and trend strong. DMI “blue on top” and all systems go.
Looks like Australia ‘has action’ and is a decent place to play for a while.
How about their little brother?
Well. The likely Kiwi That Could!
OK, late to the party, but what a party. RSI looks to be settled in as a rolling range. ADX is 20 and dropping, so maybe ending the run (or dipping). DMI has a red-blue weave, so trying to pick a trend. MACD is positive but with “red on top” of modest down slope. Saying not yet time to be in. PSAR has stopped out and put the lid on. Saying wait until these dots are touched to buy back in.
All in all, it’s a bit late in the run to buy, but I’d move to a faster chart and ‘trade in’ on the chance of a ‘buy the dip’ moment; but be ready to exit if it is just a failed top. If the trend resumes, then let it ride.
Brazil was great for a decade or two. They had a socialist president who didn’t want to muck with their economic miracle, so didn’t interfere with markets. Then in the last? election the new guy had a large ‘dick with factor’ and started socializing the markets more. It’s been down or dead money since. I mostly watch it now just to see if it ever hits bottom…
Looks to me like we had a crash (bang tinkle ;-) then a Dead Cat Bounce. Now it’s tried a run up and that’s failing. Prices rolled over again after ‘not much’. RSI touched 80 anyway, then had ‘lower highs’. MACD red on top at zero. Yawn. ADX 15 and dropping with weaving DMI. Nothing to see, move along, move along…
Lots of mining leveraged to China and economic activity globally. Underperforming the “Latin Majors” fund, but with a nice new rise lately. Largely a bet on economic growth taking off in the world.
RSI off a buy / bottom, but not yet ‘near 80’. That’s good. ADX a bit weak at 15, so ought to use Slow Stochastic or a faster chart and swing trade (or perhaps just early in the trend formation). DMI blue on top with MACD sideways a bit above the zero line.
Looks a lot like a new positive run in the very early stages. Could use some confirming investigation, but generally looks good. Especially with Australia going gang busters, the resources demand ought to reflect in Chile too. So “interesting” for a small position or look inside the fund at particular stocks for more guidance / ideas.
It looks like some of the Latin countries have some action, also ANZUS and Japan. With the currency buggery, I’d likely look to the Latins more. Australia needs a ‘Canadian Moment’ to toss out their Global Warming Green Goofballs or their economy might be hobbled, even with large Chinese demand. Still, it looks like the ‘big issues’ are coming from the USA (“sequestration”) and North Korea (Japan and S. Korea at risk, China likely to be part of the ‘food fight’). So things ‘away from them’ and not playing ‘bugger the currency’ are Australia, New Zealand, Chile and some other selected Latins. So that’s where I’m likely to play / focus.
The EU and UK are doing OK, but I don’t see how they can do a return to a strong Euro and “make it” while driving costs for power higher internally too. Clearly we have ‘asset inflation’ from multiple central banks doing “bugger the currencies” and that “strong Euro” is by being measured against a rubber dollar…
So all in all, it looks like the ‘out of the way’ corners are likely the best places to be. Which means more detailed searching. Oh well… But there were a few trade opportunities turned up. Right now, I need to do a currency ‘race’ and move some of my dollars to other currencies, while picking up more ‘tangibles’. I’m not holding gold (as it is Central Bank dominated) but rather precious metals used in industry. They have increasing demand, limited supply, and less ‘fooling around with’ by governments. PPLT Platinum, PALL Palladium, JJC Copper, JJT Tin. While gold and sliver are trending downward with financial guys leaving for stocks, the more industrial metals have rounded up and are looking good…
So it looks to me like a time to be buying things that are needed by industry and away from currency buggery and “Financial Games”.
To look at more ‘variety tickers’ in the EU, or other geographies, hit this link: