Argentina Stocks

Not a pretty picture. What happens in a “Socialist Paradise”…

Argentina ETF ARGT vs. UUP Dollar Up, SPY and Argentine ADRs RSI MACD DMI

This is a 2 year chart, to give better context. Not a whole lot of interest here. I tried playing with APSA some years back, but the volatility and the tendency to be “news driven” made it mostly a losing effort. (They own shopping centers and such. Prone to things like the present Government freeze on prices and / or riots…)

ARGT  -  Argentina ETF
SPY   -  S&P 500 ETF benchmark
APSA  -  Alto Palermo (real estate)
BMA   -  Banco Macro (banks)
BFR   -  BBVA Banco Frances (banks)
CRESY -  Cresud (food products)
EDN   -  Edenor (electricity)
GGAL  -  Grupo Financiero Galicia (banks)
IRS   -  IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones (real estate)
         (Talk about your lousy ticker symbol..)
MGS   -  MetroGas

ADRs from this link:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/169636-the-complete-list-of-argentina-adr-stocks

Looks a little like a ‘Dead Cat Bounce” and bottoming action. Then again, there will be no ‘catalyst’ for significant improvement until the Socialist Government is thrown out, and that won’t happen until the people change their economic beliefs. So could just keep doing “dip down, DCB, dip down, DCB, etc.” to zero. Recent news has a “price freeze” in food stores for the next several months, so news flow saying “more of the same”. Too much government spending, not enough private enterprise, too much envy and “begger thy neighbor”.

Next batch:

Argentina ETF ARGT vs ILF Latin 40 Majors and Argentine ADRs Momentum, Volatility Fast, Volume+

ARGT  -  Argentina ETF
NTL   -  Nortel Invesora (telephones)
ILF   -  Latin 40 large cap
PAM   -  Pampa Energia (claimed 'financial' but name is Energy)
PZE   -  Petrobras Energia (energy)
TAR   -  Telefonica de Argentina [Bigcharts shows a different co.]
TEO   -  Telecom Argentina (Fixed line telecom)
TS    -  Tenaris (Industrial metals and mining)
TX    -  Ternium (Industrial metals and mining)
TGS   -  Transportadora de Gas del Sur (oil eq. & services)
YPF   -  YPF (oil & gas producer)

Volume is too thin to use really. Volatility spikes a bit at bottoms, but needs an ‘area average’ by eye. Momentum inflections look to work best. This, too, is a 2 year chart. Generally not seeing a whole lot of interest, though there are a couple showing some recent rise. Might be something you could do with it on a trade basis, but you are one news report of riots or “nationalizing” away from zero.

So why do this posting? Partly out of curiosity. Partly just to show what happens in a Socialist Paradise economy to the stock markets and investments. They crash then ‘wobble on the bottom’ with the news cycle of euphoria and despair. Besides, I couldn’t find any ETF or ADRs for Uruguay or Paraguay ;-)

Misc. Dead Latin ADR Markets

In looking through Latin American ADRs and ETFs, several countries showed up as essentially uninvestable. In addition to Uruguay and Paraguay, that would be expected to be “unavailable” due to being so small, French Guiana, Guyana (formerly British Guiana) and Suriname (Dutch Guiana) are also too small. Bolivia has no ADRs or ETFs that I could find (and also have a small economy and a Socialist government, so would not be interesting anyway). Ecuador is in a similar circumstance of isolation.

That just leaves Venezuela as Yet Another Socialist Paradise that is dying on the vine. (They announced another currency devaluation, this time about 30%, and that against the $US that isn’t exactly inflation proof these days… Yet there is a list of ADRs for Venezuela. Near as I can tell, they all have zero volume and no present market and are most likely “left overs” from when Venezuela had a vibrant economy and folks were investing in it. Prior to the “nationalize and stagnate” disease that Hugo Chavez brought with him. I’m going to quote the list here, for documentation purposes only. It does illustrate one of the “big risks” of Latin Socialist Dictators and The Socialism Shiny Thing rampant in much of South America. List from:

http://www.site-by-site.com/adr/latin/adr_ven.htm

Name 	 	 	 	 	CUSIP 	 Market Ticker
BANCO VENEZOLANO DE CREDITO COMMON 	059650101 OTC 	BVZCY
C.A. LA ELECTRICIDAD DE CARACAS, SACA 	12477A106 OTC 	ELDAY
CANTV-NACIONAL TELEFONOS DE VENEZUELA 	204421101 NYSE 	VNT 
CERAMICA CARABOBO "A" SHARES 	        15671P407 OTC 	CMCJY
CERAMICA CARABOBO "B" SHARES 	        15671P506 OTC 	CMCKY 
CORIMON C.A. S.A.C.A. 	                218728509 NYSE 	CRM 
DOMINGUEZ Y CIA. COMMON SHARES 	        25712R106 OTC 	DCIAY
DOMINGUEZ Y CIA. PREFFERED SHARES 	25712R205 OTC 	DCIPY 
F.V.I FONDO DE VALORES INMOBILIARIOS 	302669304 OTC 	FVIMY 
MANTEX COMMON SHARES 	                564601201 OTC 	MTXVY 
MANUFACTURAS DE PAPEL, C.A. (MANPA) 	564681105 OTC 	MUPAY 
MAVESA "B" SHARES 	                577717101 NYSE 	MAV 
MERCANTIL SERVICIOS FINANCIEROS C.A. 	587339102 OTC 	MSVFY 
SIVENSA "A" SHARES LEVEL-I 	        825865405 OTC 	SDNZY 
SIVENSA "B" SHARES 144A 	        825865504 144A 	SDNXY 
SIVENSA "B" SHARES LEVEL-I 	        825865603 OTC 	SDNVY 
SUDAMTEX DE VENEZUELA "B" SHARES LEVL-I 864598305 OTC 	SDXVY 
SUDAMTEX DE VENEZUELA 144A "B" SHARES 	864598206 144A 	SUDXYP
VENEPAL "B" SHARES 	                92263Y203 OTC 	VNPSY 
VENEPAL "B" SHARES 144A 	        92263Y104 144A 	VNPZY 
VENPRECAR "B" SHARES 144A 	        922644109 144A 	VNZZY 

So you can see that at one time there was a vibrant ADR market and US investment money was available to Venezuela.

At this point, I still have Brazil, Columbia and Chile to go. (When they are done I’ll remove this line…)

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