Stocks worst day of 2013 & House Music

First off, start this music “video” running… The visuals don’t change but I like the music…

Ok, first off, this is just how I am, get over it.

I’m letting you ‘inside the tent’ a little bit. Don’t like it? Stuff it.

I’ve got this music going in my head while I’m watching CNBC fast money while I’m pondering a better BBQ while… it’s just how I am. I’ve often sorted out the threads and made distinct postings of them, but right now I’m multi-threaded and don’t want to break the gel.

So play the tunes and grab a roll bar and hang on…

So the Dow / S&P took a big hit today… worst day in 2013. We kind of saw it coming as I’d dumped JPM (it being in the financial that were first to rollover) and then pointing out that while RUT said “stay in” that, well, it was likely to change. Then noted the inflection in DMI and ADX the next day. “That’s what it does”… Italy had an election that, surprise, said folks want more free stuff and don’t like austerity all that much and want the good times back. Like that’s a surprise.

But the US markets sold off. (I was out other than BIRKA some days, maybe a week back) Again, “like that’s a surprise”…

Here’s a chart. Anyone not up to speed on how the indicators works, pick any WSW posting and follow the links to a dozen and one explanations of how they work and how to read them.

Oh, and when that music runs out, start this one:

Again, the video doesn’t change much, but the music does.

SO here’s the S&P graph:

SPY vs other stuff, it's live baby...

SPY vs other stuff, it’s live baby…

So we had a ‘blip’ down, then two pause days, now a 200 point plus OMG down day. That’s sort of the typical pattern. Why? You want to know WHY? OK, the Fat Wallet sells out. Now it’s a 3 day settlement when not much happens other than us monkeys shaking the bars, then on day three, Mr. Fat Wallet has clear cash. NOW he can short, and short hard. That’s the ‘tell’. We’re now hard core down market. Sit down, shut up, hang on, and pray (or prey… depending on how big your wallet might be…)

So the music is called “House Music”. Didn’t know the name until an hour ago. I knew I liked it. It’s kind of ‘techo-bop’ with drums. Didn’t think much about it other than thinking it was a Euro-dance thing. Turns out it isn’t.

Came from the U. S. of A. per the wiki:

House music is a genre of electronic dance music that originated in the American city of Chicago in the early 1980s. It was initially popularized circa 1984 in Chicago, but beginning in 1985, it fanned out to other major cities such as Detroit, Toronto, New York City, San Francisco, Boston, Montreal, Manchester, Miami, London, and Paris. It then began to influence popular music in Europe, with songs such as “House Nation” by House Master Boyz and the Rude Boy Of House (1987) and “Doctorin’ The House” by Coldcut (1988) in the pop charts. Since the early to mid-1990s, house music has been infused in mainstream pop and dance music worldwide.

Early house music was generally dance-based music characterized by repetitive 4/4 beats, rhythms centered around drum machines,[2] off-beat hi-hat cymbals, and synthesized basslines. While house displayed several characteristics similar to disco music, it was more electronic and minimalistic, and the structured music’s focus around a repetitive rhythm was more important than the song itself. House music today, while keeping several of these core elements, notably the prominent kick drum on every beat, varies a lot in style and influence, ranging from the soulful and atmospheric deep house to the more minimalistic microhouse. House music has also fused with several other genres creating fusion subgenres, such as Euro house, tech house, and electro house.

House music, after enjoying significant underground and club-based success in Chicago from the early 1980s onwards, emerged into the UK mainstream pop market in the mid-to-late 80s. Popularity quickly followed in the rest of Europe, and it became a global phenomenon from the early-to-mid 90s onwards. It proved to be a commercially successful genre and a more mainstream pop-based variation grew increasingly popular. Artists and groups such as Madonna, Janet Jackson, Björk, and C+C Music Factory incorporated the genre into their work. After enjoying significant success in the early to mid-90s, house music grew even larger during the second wave of progressive house (1999–2001). The genre has remained popular and fused into other popular subgenres, as the DJ Mag Top 100 DJs poll has been dominated by house DJs since the beginning of the polls. Today, house music remains popular in both clubs and in the mainstream pop scene while still maintaining a strong foothold on underground scenes across the globe.

So I’m a quasi musical illiterate. I just like some stuff, other stuff not so much. I like the ‘electro-pop-rock’ kind of stuff, and the stuff at Burning Man in the videos… Of course, since people put everything in buckets, this has a definition… but despite running multithread and high warp, you can’t be everywhere all the time.. so only now do I spare a cycle and find out it has a name ‘House Music’ and has been defined since the ’80s. Oh Well… I still like it… and it’s not European, that’s just a return to these shores from whence it began. In Chicago no less. Where my kid has moved. Who was born a bit after this first started. Who loves music. Circles in spheres in elliptical arcs..

So look at that S&P. Hard down today. Nice to have been out a few days back (when I also sold my metals on a ‘first down day’) Metals dropping too. “They all go together when the go”…

If only I’d known 30 years ago that such places as this existed… then again, maybe they didn’t exist 30 years ago:

Video is good on this one along with the music, IMHO. Though the starting beat is a bit too much…

So we’ve got RSI with “lower highs” from a ‘near 80’ moment, and MACD with “red on top and mouth down” i.e. good strong downward slope. DMI / ADX inflected a few days back now it’s “red on top”. Bail if you haven’t already. (Though frankly, we’ve collectively been talking about being out for a week or two now, so what’s your problem?…)

We’re likely going to below the bottom line of the SMA stack in one go, so about 6% to 10% more. Then, and only then, we start to find out if this is a ‘buy the dip’ or a rollover.

Price has popped the PSAR dots, so your stop loss point has been hit (again if you were not already out a week or two back).

Not much to say, really, other than “Dive Dive Dive!!!!”

Note, too, that many other tickers have rolled over together. Copper, QQQQ, RUT, oil. Anything economy related.

While “risk off” assets took a jump up:

Gld vs other stuff, it's live too baby..

Gld vs other stuff, it’s live too baby..

So, if the other vid runs out, start this one:

Has a beefcake on a surf board at the start. (Lady’s I do try to find some eye candy for you too, but it doesn’t come around as much…) then goes to babes and boards.

So gold did a ‘jump up’. RSI near 20 and MACD lining up for an inflection up. Likely time to buy gold. But this is an established down trend, so this is a ‘reversion to the mean’ trade. AT the SMA stack, step out. THEN decide if it is worth a reentry.

So I’ve already got the Google Spy Software confused as it offers up to me Spanish Language videos and the occasional Russian. It thinks I’m a ’20 something’ guy with the hots for babes, and a 50 something gay guy looking for beefcakes. Oh, and sometimes it gives me “Tweeny Girly” choices. Guess their software doesn’t understand the idea of ‘just browsing and curious’, or worse, looking for something to interest others.

Though, curiously, it completely does not understand the idea of “hey, that’s good music, even if it says nothing about me.”. And it doesn’t present much to me in French. Even though I speak French better than anything but English. For some reason it puts me off into Spanish land more. Must be the Latin Music I sometimes pick…

So women are the basic form of humanity. Men mere shadows of it. We are far too scattered and tend to be drawn into single threads of distraction. I wonder some times why women put up with us. You can see it in the videos. Lots of women, men not so much. We are fixated, them, not so much. (Or there would be more beefcake videos for me to find…)

Silver SLV looks inflected too, as does PALL (though it never really dropped much) and even TLT is rising. It’s a “Risk Off” world. UUP shows the Euro dropping (likely those Italians telling the Germans to Stuff It).

So, what to do.

First off UUP says hiding in $US is OK ‘for a bit’, and it’s likely a good time to look at gold and silver.

So some times I wonder just how often women “go shopping” for guys. It’s an easy market, really. Just troll some bait and pick the biggest fish that nibbles. You can see it in the videos. Women happy to be flashing some lure, guys schooling around.

Once again we are at the ’20 something’ of the month. Options expired and Mr. Fat Wallet taking a new position. Toss out everything you knew, and reset. What was trash is how treasure, what was treasure is now trash. Me? Mostly $US and I’m sitting on my BIRKA that I’ve not sold since 1987 or so… other than that, not much, though likely to position into metals.

“House Music” seems like such a lame name. Yet it’s a genre I like and have for years. Nice to know what it is called, but now I’m finding out it is mutating into new names faster than I’m learning the old ones. Sigh…

Ladies, there just isn’t as much out there, or I don’t know what ‘search terms’ to put into Youtube. (I’m not in tune with looking for beefcake videos… sorry, just not.) But what I’ve found, I’ll link. Trite, but here it is:

Short, but it looks like Australia may know how to show a girl a good time:

Though it looks like Britain can import some French guys for a bit of action:

OK, I’m willing to admit incompetence. I can’t find a ‘gal oriented’ video with guys that is like the music videos above.

I don’t know if they are just not out there, or not popular, or if Google has “pegged me” so I can’t get female oriented content (only the abortive ‘old gay guy’ attempts to re-peg me) or what. So if you ladies (who I know read, but don’t comment as much as the guys) have any “pointers” on how to get more videos in ‘your’ genre, please let me know. I’m just not getting it…

So back at “stock stuff”… the markets seem to have finally noticed that Europe is a basket case and the USA is headed to hell in a handbasket in a couple of days…

FXI China vs other emerging markets

FXI China vs other emerging markets

So China has rolled over fairly hard, along with Brazil, Mexico, and the emerging markets fund.

Duck and cover time folks, duck and cover. (Then again we’ve been worrying this moment for a week now so it ought not be a surprise…)

Yet I’m wondering how I can have liked a genre of music for a decade plus and not known its name… or that it had a name. Maybe I was busy ;-) Or do you really need to know what name something has to know you like it when you hear it? I guess it helps find more, if you don’t have an app that stumbles on it for you…

So oil took a hit, coal has been dropping for a while, and even gasoline UGA had a small dip. Someone is seriously worried.

USO Oil vs energy and stock tickers.

USO Oil vs energy and stock tickers.

Ah, the perils of a multithreaded life…

So that’s a bit of peak at what happens with me all the time. A music thread mixed with money stuff. Or a ‘how to make a brick stove from scraps’ idea kicking around with snow reports, or how to find male strippers when you have no clue what search terms to use.

Had pinot with a nice polish sausage from the POB grill tonight. It had plenty of heat to cook the sausage and heat up the sauerkraut in a 2 qt pan. Yes, kraut and sausages with mustard. A classic mix. Speaking of mix…

Most of the time I sort out one channel per posting. But I thought it might be interesting to ‘share’ what it’s like in the real me. A kaleidoscope of stuff, just flowing by.. Dip in a dipper and who know what comes up this minute…

and so it goes… the beat never stops…

As of now, we have all the indicia of a major top rollover and major Mr. Fat Wallet shorting. Dive for cover. It’s a ‘risk off’ world. IMHO. This isn’t over, it’s just starting.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Economics - Trading - and Money, Human Interest and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

16 Responses to Stocks worst day of 2013 & House Music

  1. sabretoothed says:

    Not sure if today was a trick, could be finished, but maybe its the left shoulder building and then it’ll zoom up 500-1000 points in a spike before the final crash???

  2. BobN says:

    Europe in trouble.
    No one can do anything in Washington – Its Broken.
    The government bailing out B of A – A sign of coming problems.
    Unemployment will be back over 8% in a few weeks.
    Growth rate will drop below 2% this year – If we are lucky.

    Short, short short and buy some puts.
    The market will go down but the strong shorts will drive a covering rally, but sit tight, it will go down again. This is the time to make big money fast, but I’m a bit of a gambler.

  3. E.M.Smith says:


    I’ve seen that ‘tell’ a few times now. Flattening rise to low volatility. Some Fat Wallet has a big sell day. Wait two. Third day on ‘settlement’, the big drop on hard shorting. It’s an absolute tell. Mr. Fat Wallet is shorting hard and there is no ‘uptick’ rule to stop it. Duck and cover or hard short.

    During the 2008 crash you could watch Yen rise on the shorts putting cash into the carry trade currency. I think that is now the $US, so watch for UUP going up on shorts banking cash…

  4. BobN says:

    I agree, Fat wallet is about to bail. I spent the afternoon looking at charts this afternoon and believe it will be a nice drop, just how far is the question, won’t know that for a few days. This has been telegraphed a few weeks ago by some Huge put buying on the vix and the various index.

    I keep wondering on these, is this the one we don’t come back from?

  5. Pingback: Daily Linkage – February 26, 2013 | The Second Estate

  6. I’d tell you how to look for ‘videos for the ladies’ if I knew how myself :) That music brought me back a good few years. Was riding in a car with a friend one night, had the radio tuned to any old thing, and they started a house music show for an hour or so. I enjoyed it quite a bit then; it understandably reminded me of The KLF’s The White Room…which I have recently learned is mostly a variety of house music.

    Original trance version of 3AM Eternal, as the “acid” house version is a bit tough to listen to at the actual time of 3AM:

  7. Tony Hansen says:

    Thanks EM,
    This post has put a smile back on my face.
    I was reading recently that crashes take much longer to arrive than one would expect, but happen far quicker than one would believe. (Who said that?)

  8. DirkH says:

    princessartemis says:
    26 February 2013 at 11:45 am
    “understandably reminded me of The KLF’s The White Room…which I have recently learned is mostly a variety of house music.”

    KLF called their music Stadium House (not because they played in stadiums but because they added sampled crowd noise from a Doors Live album – which was one of the reasons they got sued).

    As for Bunga & Beppe: Love it. Staying in Gold. Hoping the EU meets its maker this summer :-)

  9. p.g.sharrow says:

    Looks to be a classic “Soros” smash and grab. The MSM and the Democrat administration has been screaming that the sequester is going to be the cause of the end of everything to act as his cover. Bernanke says that he will continue to pump the money out at least to 2016. I have seen this game played out many times.

    @EMSmith; well you have done it. I almost could not load your blog! WAY TOO MUCH EYE CANDY up front to squeeze through our satellite feed straw :-( please, please, please fewer video links.. pg

  10. R. de Haan says:

    Love the house music from Van Buren although his life performances are to loud and the public is to doped. As for all the economic mayem I was flabbergasted by the news from FT stating that US oil imports from the Middle East have seen a very strong rise lately:

    Where is this oil going when the economy is tanking?

  11. crosspatch says:

    I would say a lot of it right now is going to heating oil. We are seeing the February in many years across the US, and March promises the same.

  12. PhilJourdan says:

    Timing is everything. I agree, we are in for some hard times. I do not expect to see the big drop for several months however. By early summer, it will be in full swing. That QE stuff is causing the market to maintain its highs when nothing else is supporting it.

  13. adolfogiurfa says:

    @E.M.: It´s a kind of trial dive down, the real one to the bottom level of 5,000 points is about to happen any time….Those girls will suddenly stop dancing when facing reality too.

  14. adolfogiurfa says:

    Zombie markets stalking slept people…

  15. jim2 says:

    It sounds like a lot of modern “pop” music borrowed from some of the stuff you posted. You are not alone, EM.

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