A Cold German Or Two

I know, a bit late on this one, but “I’ve been busy” ;-)

In addition to a frozen UK, we’ve had a very frozen Germany.

http://iceagenow.info/2013/03/we%E2%80%99ve-coldest-march-1883-germany-reader/

We’ve got the COLDEST MARCH SINCE 1883 in Germany! says reader
By Robert On March 27, 2013

It’s official: this March in northeastern Germany is the coldest in 130 years, and could be the coldest since records began.

Not just one day, mind you. We’re talking about the entire month.

In Saxony-Anhalt, Brandenburg and Berlin, the DWD average temperatures measured up to almost minus two degrees, very close to the previous March-cold record of 1883.

130 Years.

So, where did all that loverly Global Warming go?

We were promised that it would be warm. Seems to me somebody could get sued over breach of promise…

http://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article114817185/Kaeltester-Maerz-seit-1883-und-es-bleibt-frostig.html

Kältester März seit 1883 – und es bleibt frostig

So, jetzt ist es amtlich: Dieser März ist im Nordosten der kälteste seit 130 Jahren, er könnte sogar der kälteste seit Beginn der Wetteraufzeichnungen werden. Auch Ostern wird frostig.

Ostereiersuchen im Freien – dafür sind diesmal Mantel, Stiefel, Mütze und Schal angesagt. Blühende Sträucher, bunte Blumen, frisches Grün – Fehlanzeige. Hartnäckig hält sich die Kälte in Deutschland – von null Grad im Nordosten bis zehn Grad im Süden reicht die Palette während der Ostertage.

“Hoch ‘Jill’ über Südskandinavien lässt einfach nicht locker und schickt uns weiterhin permanent kalte Luft aus russischen oder polaren Gefilden”, sagte Meteorologe Simon Trippler vom Deutschen Wetterdienst (DWD) in Offenbach. Ein Frühlingsdurchbruch ist nicht in Sicht.

Auch Tief “Dieter”, das bis Samstag Deutschland von West nach Ost überquert, werde es nicht wärmer machen, sondern Regen und Schnee bringen. Und danach dominiere wieder die Ostströmung: “Das garantiert die Fortdauer der zu kalten Witterung bis über Ostern hinaus”, sagt Trippler trocken.

Im Nordosten Deutschlands geht der kälteste März seit mindestens 130 Jahren zu Ende. Für Sachsen-Anhalt, Brandenburg und Berlin ermittelte der DWD Durchschnittstemperaturen bis zu knapp minus zwei Grad, die ganz dicht am bisherigen März-Kälterekord aus dem Jahr 1883 liegen. In den letzten vier Tagen des Monats entscheidet sich, ob es dort sogar einen Rekord gibt. Es wäre dann der kälteste März seit Beginn der Wetteraufzeichnungen 1881.

A Google Translate of it, just because I’m feeling lazy ;-)

Coldest March since 1883 – and it remains frosty

So now it’s official: this is March in the northeast of the coldest for 130 years, he could even be the coldest since records began. Easter is also frosty.

Easter egg hunts in the open – but this time are coat, boots, hat and scarf announced. Flowering shrubs, colorful flowers, fresh greenery – None. Stubbornly keeps the cold in Germany – from zero degrees to the northeast to ten degrees in the south they range during Easter.

‘High’ Jill ‘over southern Scandinavia can not simply loose and sends us continue permanently cold air from Russia or polar climes, “said meteorologist Simon Trippler the German Weather Service (DWD) in Offenbach. Spring is a breakthrough in sight.

Too deep “Dieter”, which crosses through Saturday from West to East Germany, will not make it warmer, but bring rain and snow. And then again dominate the Ostströmung: “This guarantees the continuance of up to cold weather over Easter to come,” says Trippler dry.

In northeastern Germany, March is the coldest since at least 130 years ago. In Saxony-Anhalt, Brandenburg and Berlin, the DWD average temperatures measured up to almost minus two degrees, which lie very close to the previous March-cold record from 1883. In the last four days of the month will determine whether there is even a record. It would then be the coldest March since records began 1881st

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/cold-german-winter-refuses-to-warm-up-for-easter-a-891468.html

With some nice pictures too…

White Easter: Germany Faces Coldest March Since 1883

Complaining about the weather has reached epidemic proportions in northern Germany this “spring.” And with good reason. With Easter just around the corner, meteorologists are telling us this could end up being the coldest March in Berlin and its surroundings since records began in the 1880s.

The poor Easter Bunny deserves our sympathy. Whereas in recent years he has grown used to dodging daffodils, lilies and tulips as he carries his cargo of eggs and chocolate to homes across northern Europe, this year the rabbit will find himself confronted with ice slicks, snow drifts and bundled up humans in foul moods.

Easter, after all, may be upon us. But spring weather most definitely is not. Biologists are warning that the Easter Bunny’s wild brethren, European hares, are having trouble keeping their broods warm and healthy in the unseasonable chill. Meteorologists are keeping close tabs on thermometers to determine whether this March will go down as the coldest ever — since records began in the 1880s. And wiseacres on the streets of Berlin have not yet tired of noting that Easter promises to be colder than last Christmas.

And it’s not just the northern regions of Continental Europe where the Easter Bunny will encounter problems. Great Britain and Ireland are likewise suffering through unseasonable weather, with power outages threatening the roast lamb and snow drifts making hopping difficult. Russia and Ukraine are also suffering.

In northern Germany, the weather has been particularly notable for its persistent putrescence. Following a winter that broke all records for its lack of sunshine — with just 91.2 hours of sunshine, total, from the beginning of December to the end of February
— the sun has in recent days emerged from behind the haze.

Of all the “cold reports”, I find that 91.2 hours of sun the most disturbing. It’s hard to grow things without sun. I dearly hope that Germany starts getting more sun as Summer comes.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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49 Responses to A Cold German Or Two

  1. P.G.Sharrow says:

    Easter was a bit too early this year. Or maybe spring a bit late. No I’m sure Easter was early, sometimes that happens. In ancient times Easter was in the early spring when new growth started, generally April sometime. Them Romans always screwed things up with their messing with the calendar. No connection to natural things. ;-) pg

  2. adrianvance says:

    If you study the Vostok ice core readout graphs for the last 450,000 years of Earth weather you will see that we are 45,000 years overdue for another ice age! A very steep decline in our atmospheric temperature. During one of these epochs we were totally covered in ice to a depth of one to five miles all the way to Panama! I want to see James Hansen under one of those glaciers!

    See The Two Minute Conservative at: http://tinyurl.com/7jgh7wv and when you speak ladies will swoon and liberal gentlemen will weep.

  3. Joanie says:

    IF the warming of the past few decades was a prelude to a sudden drop in temperature for the Northern Hemisphere, then it’s going to get very interesting very quickly. I continue to read with interest, as you explore options for both near term and long term self reliance. Your explorations and insights are interesting… and may end up being even more so.

  4. K.I. says:

    I read somewhere that the migrating birds came to Germany this spring and turned around and left again!!!

  5. DirkH says:

    “Of all the “cold reports”, I find that 91.2 hours of sun the most disturbing. It’s hard to grow things without sun.”

    It also makes it more difficult for our solar panel owners to extract more money from us; so that’s an upside – maybe it’s an overall economic benefit; as we can replace own produce with imports. And a diminished harvest means less subsidies to be paid to the biofuel producers and the biogas plant operators.

    Maybe our market is so rigged already that less sun is becoming economically beneficial to the average person. Does this count as unintended consequence? Destruction is the goal of the Green, as human activity is to be curbed; he has successfully destroyed, so I guess it is intended.

    ” I dearly hope that Germany starts getting more sun as Summer comes.”

    To no avail. It stays dim in the North as in the South. The last heaps of snow are only now slowly melting in Lower saxony.

  6. Petrossa says:

    It’ll pass. Times change, weather changes, weather patterns change, climate changes. Nothing 7 billion ants can do about it, but suffer the consequences. The upside is indeed that the ‘energiewende’ is doomed. Pity about the capital destruction though.

  7. j ferguson says:

    This must be a real shock to these guys. After my experience with a 1968 BMW 1600, I surmised that the guys who had gone to Russia in the ’40s to learn about cold either hadn’t remembered it or didn’t work at BMW . There is another, less pleasant possibility, but it was a long time ago so i won’t go into that.

    It had a flow-through (ONLY) heating-vent system. The car could not be driven above 60 mph when the temperature was less than 20F without the windshield frosting up. Cardboard in front of part of the radiator was the answer.

    Of course the real solution was to trade it in on a 2002 in which you could go 80 before running into the same problem.

  8. DirkH says:

    j ferguson says:
    6 April 2013 at 11:20 am
    “Of course the real solution was to trade it in on a 2002 in which you could go 80 before running into the same problem.”

    Or go for a Volkswagen which doesn’t have that problem either. I think they tested some in Russia:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbelwagen

  9. j ferguson says:

    Hah, DirkH!
    My experience with VW’s commencing with the ’57 was first that it would not do 80, so there was no issue there, and second, that it would not defrost much more than the lower corners of the windshield if the temperature was much below 20F. In the ’70s I worked with a gentleman who had driven Heinkel 111s in Russia during the ’40s – as a sort of uninvited guest of the Russians. During the cold times, they had found it necessary to keep them running all the time since the donkeys (mechanical ones) intended to heat them up so that they could be started couldn’t themselves be started it if was colder than -20F – which it was. Maybe it would have been better to leave the donkeys running.

    I must say that when we figured out what the heating problem with the BMW 1600 actually was we were astonished that it never got cold enough in Germany for them to have discovered it. ??

  10. Here, in the afternoon, near Narbonne in the South of France, within 10 miles of the Mediterranean Sea the temperature is 5.5°C. This is beyond doubt the latest spring that I have experienced here.

  11. Gail Combs says:

    We are probably headed into a bad cold spell. The geologic records show abrupt temperature changes (withing a decade) especially in the transition zone between the bi-stable warm/cold states. SEE http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/05/on-“trap-speed-acc-and-the-snr/

    So far we humans have been darn lucky because the Holocene has not had the typical wide weather swings.

    As far as I can see is the only question is whether or not we will stay in the unstable zone or just flip into an Ice Age. Both or pretty much Lose-Lose especially with the idiotic sociopaths we have as our ‘Leaders’

  12. j ferguson says:

    Gail Combs: “idiotic sociopaths” Hear, Hear.

  13. Adrian Ashfield says:

    E.M.S.
    I thought Akasofu nailed it some years ago. http://people.iarc.uaf.edu/~sakasofu/pdf/two_natural_components_recent_climate_change.pdf
    Worth a look if you haven’t seen it already.

  14. DirkH says:

    j ferguson says:
    6 April 2013 at 12:53 pm
    “I must say that when we figured out what the heating problem with the BMW 1600 actually was we were astonished that it never got cold enough in Germany for them to have discovered it. ??”

    I have no experience with BMW, but Northern Germany reaches -20 deg C in winter, the South -35 deg C – depending on microclimate and elevation and whether you’re in a valley or have frequent inversions…

    In F that’s -4 F and -31 F respectively so I’m astonished they should have a problem at 20 F.

  15. j ferguson says:

    Of course this heating issue in the 68 BMWs was in 68, when it wasn’t nearly as easy as it is today to get an opinion on what the locals did about it. There was no heat on those cars except via flow-through – no recirculation flap. There were a couple of other issues related to corrosion protection (no paint of any kind in parts of the body which could be exposed to salt on the roads – within the front fenders) but they were truly wonderful to drive – the suspensions were sensitive and effective – no matter what you drove over, it always felt like the suspension was saying to itself, “Ach, I know what to do here, these are cobbles.” not like GM cars of the day which said “OMG, what is this. I know. I’ll rumble up and down and the master will think I’m handling it.”

  16. tckev says:

    I keep wondering if these atmospheric changes, which are sun mediated, are moving the jet stream about. Not very much research has been done to find out, just the usual nonsense about climate tipping points etc. IMO this should be thoroughly investigated before useless hypothesizing based on such small amounts of data. Surely it’s a major discovery and deserves better.
    http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/AGU-SABER.html
    and
    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/15jul_thermosphere/

  17. Petrossa says:

    I read somewhere, forget where, people driving electric cars do so with oilheaters in them so they can keep warm and still have some range left. Makes sense so i guess it’s true.

  18. DirkH says:

    A WUWT commenter, I think his nick is kwik, said that his fellow Norwegians do that.

  19. Petrossa says:

    You have a better memory than me DirkH, but i have an excuse. I’m very old :)

  20. adolfogiurfa says:

    “der kälteste seit 130 Jahren” ….Oh!, das ist gut!, as one german is one german, two germans are two germans….but three are an army :-)

  21. DirkH says:

    @Petrossa: I just have a keen interest in assorted European madnesses.

  22. vukcevic says:

    British aren’t going to give any ground to our German friends
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-March.htm
    speaking of German friends, this is a not politically correct, I hope they would like it, maybe not a lot

  23. bruce says:

    ah, another lost to the world of Fawlty Towers. IMHO that particular episode was a little below par.

  24. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Vukcevic: What a disgusting graph!, it seems that the Met office supercomputer could not compute more faked data anymore and suddenly stopped!

  25. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Vukcevic: Seriously…,and just for your friends, tell us, as you have taught us the relation between temperatures and the GMF. Is this changing too fast?

  26. Gail Combs says:

    tckev says:
    6 April 2013 at 3:24 pm

    I keep wondering if these atmospheric changes, which are sun mediated, are moving the jet stream about….
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    From what I can tell it is the sun, ozone layer and perhaps the geomagnetic field.
    tutorial: Jet streams and Rossby waves
    A comment over at WUWT indicates the speed of the north pole’s movement has accelerated.

    ….In the last 10 years, the geomagnetic field specialists have found that geomagnetic field changes correlate with past climate changes. What delayed the geomagnetic field analysis (consensus on the finding), is there is no explanation as to why the geomagnetic field is changing cyclically and as the geomagnetic field changes are significantly faster than is possible with the current assumed model for how the geomagnetic field is generated…..

    Starting in 1996, the geomagnetic North pole suddenly started to move. Prior to 1996 the geomagnetic field wandered moving year by year roughly 15 km in no fixed direction. The North geomagnetic pole is now moving at 45 km/year in a fixed direction, causing a 1 degree change in magnetic north every 5 years which requires airports in the Northern Hemisphere to re-number their runways as the standard system is to number the run related to alignment with magnetic North. (Prior to 1996, magnetic north did not change.)
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/02/global-cooling-methods-and-testable-decadal-predictions/#comment-1264443

    Graph solar radiation.
    Graph solar radiation at various ocean depths

    Different wavelength of sunlight penetrate to different depths of the ocean. Changes in the composition of incoming sunlight could effect SST and evaporation. (see Bob Tisdales videos link for an explanation of ENSO and trade winds.

    SPARC Theme: Stratosphere-Troposphere Dynamical Coupling
    http://www.sparc-climate.org/about/themes/stratosphere-troposphere-dynamical-coupling/
    Stratospheric changes are important because they can affect tropospheric weather and climate….. Stratospheric changes are both dynamical and chemical, and thus can affect the troposphere not just through dynamical coupling, but also through altered exchange of chemical constituents and through changes to UV radiation.

    For example, stratospheric ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere has been connected to substantial changes in tropospheric winds. These changes affect both the ocean circulation (and oceanic biota such as krill), and precipitation over sensitive regions such as Australia. There are indications that sustained stratospheric anomalies can affect the deep ocean circulation in the North Atlantic. As climate continues to change through the rest of this century and beyond, it is important to understand what role the stratosphere will play….

    Regional atmospheric circulation shifts induced by a grand solar minimum
    http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1460.html
    Large changes in solar ultraviolet radiation can indirectly affect climate1 by inducing atmospheric changes. Specifically, it has been suggested that centennial-scale climate variability during the Holocene epoch was controlled by the Sun…

    Here we analyse annually laminated sediments of Lake Meerfelder Maar, Germany, to derive variations in wind strength and the rate of 10Be accumulation, a proxy for solar activity, from 3,300 to 2,000 years before present. We find a sharp increase in windiness and cosmogenic 10Be deposition 2,759  ±  39 varve years before present and a reduction in both entities 199  ±  9 annual layers later. We infer that the atmospheric circulation reacted abruptly and in phase with the solar minimum. A shift in atmospheric circulation in response to changes in solar activity is broadly consistent with atmospheric circulation patterns in long-term climate model simulations, and in reanalysis data that assimilate observations from recent solar minima into a climate model. We conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation amplified the solar signal and caused abrupt climate change about 2,800 years ago, coincident with a grand solar minimum.

    An influence of solar spectral variations on radiative forcing of climate
    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v467/n7316/full/nature09426.html
    … Radiation at ultraviolet wavelengths dissociates atmospheric molecules, initiating chains of chemical reactions—specifically those producing stratospheric ozone—and providing the major source of heating for the middle atmosphere, while radiation at visible and near-infrared wavelengths mainly reaches and warms the lower atmosphere and the Earth’s surface1. Thus the spectral composition of solar radiation is crucial in determining atmospheric structure, as well as surface temperature, and it follows that the response of the atmosphere to variations in solar irradiance depends on the spectrum2. Daily measurements of the solar spectrum between 0.2 µm and 2.4 µm, made by the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) instrument on the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite3 since April 2004, have revealed4 that over this declining phase of the solar cycle there was a four to six times larger decline in ultraviolet than would have been predicted on the basis of our previous understanding. This reduction was partially compensated in the total solar output by an increase in radiation at visible wavelengths. Here we show that these spectral changes appear to have led to a significant decline from 2004 to 2007 in stratospheric ozone below an altitude of 45 km, with an increase above this altitude….

    NASA: Solar Variability, Ozone, and Climate
    http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/shindell_03/
    Previous studies have concluded that changes in solar output over a solar cycle seem to be too small to have much direct impact at Earth’s surface. Solar cycle variability is greatest at ultraviolet wavelengths, which are largely absorbed by the stratospheric ozone layer. The direct effects of solar variability are therefore felt predominantly in the stratosphere or higher. However, since the stratosphere is coupled to the troposphere (the lower atmosphere), these changes could also indirectly affect the surface….
    …We have now included both realistic solar irradiance and ozone changes in a version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model which includes a representation of the complete stratosphere…

    …. The coupling between the stratosphere and lower atmosphere may therefore play a crucial role in the interaction between solar variability and climate. The total energy change over a solar cycle is quite small, which has led many to argue that solar variability has little impact on climate. Through this coupling, however, solar variability affects the lower atmosphere by changing the distribution of the large amount of energy which is already present. The impact on global average temperature seems indeed to be small; however, changing the flow of energy produces large regional impacts….

    The solar induced changes in the lower atmosphere affect surface features such as temperature and pressure.

    Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate
    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/
    There is, however, a dawning realization among researchers that even these apparently tiny variations can have a significant effect on terrestrial climate. A new report issued by the National Research Council (NRC), “The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate,” lays out some of the surprisingly complex ways that solar activity can make itself felt on our planet…
    The full report, “The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate,” is available from the National Academies Press at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13519

    WUWT discussion: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/09/nasa-on-the-sun-tiny-variations-can-have-a-significant-effect-on-terrestrial-climate/#comment-1193881

    March 20, 2003 (date of web publication)

    NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate
    http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/solarsystem/solar_trend_change_climate.html
    Since the late 1970s, the amount of solar radiation the sun emits, during times of quiet sunspot activity, has increased by nearly .05 percent per decade, according to a NASA funded study.

    “This trend is important because, if sustained over many decades, it could cause significant climate change,” said Richard Willson, a researcher affiliated with NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University’s Earth Institute, New York. He is the lead author of the study recently published in Geophysical Research Letters.

    “Historical records of solar activity indicate that solar radiation has been increasing since the late 19th century. If a trend, comparable to the one found in this study, persisted throughout the 20th century, it would have provided a significant component of the global warming the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports to have occurred over the past 100 years,” he said….
    In this study, Willson, who is also Principal Investigator of NASA’s ACRIM experiments, compiled a TSI record of over 24 years by carefully piecing together the overlapping records. In order to construct a long-term dataset, he needed to bridge a two-year gap (1989 to 1991) between ACRIM1 and ACRIM2. Both the Nimbus7/ERB and ERBS measurements overlapped the ACRIM ‘gap.’ Using Nimbus7/ERB results produced a 0.05 percent per decade upward trend between solar minima, while ERBS results produced no trend. Until this study, the cause of this difference, and hence the validity of the TSI trend, was uncertain. Willson has identified specific errors in the ERBS data responsible for the difference. The accurate long-term dataset, therefore, shows a significant positive trend (.05 percent per decade) in TSI between the solar minima of solar cycles 21 to 23 (1978 to present). This major finding may help climatologists to distinguish between solar and man-made influences on climate.….

    Quiet Sun Means Cooling of Earth’s Upper Atmosphere
    http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/coolingthermosphere.html
    …The extent of current solar minimum conditions has created a unique situation for recent SABER datasets, explains Stan Solomon, acting director of the High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. The end of solar cycle 23 has offered an opportunity to study the radiative cooling in the thermosphere under exceptionally quiescent conditions…
    “The Earth’s thermosphere is responding remarkably — up to an order of magnitude decrease in infrared emission/radiative cooling by some molecules.”

    The TIMED measurements show a decrease in the amount of ultraviolet radiation emitted by the Sun. In addition, the amount of infrared radiation emitted from the upper atmosphere by nitric oxide molecules has decreased by nearly a factor of 10 since early 2002.

    Solar Activity and Regional Streamflow “Comparison of the 36-month moving average of the Mississippi River streamflow and the Geomagnetic Index AA. Streamflow has been lagged 34 years after the Geomagnetic data.(Perry, 2007)”

    Solar Wind Loses Power, Hits 50-year Low
    …The solar wind is 13% cooler and 20% less dense.

    “What we’re seeing is a long term trend, a steady decrease in pressure that began sometime in the mid-1990s,” explains Arik Posner, NASA’s Ulysses Program Scientist in Washington DC….

    …In addition to weakened solar wind, “Ulysses also finds that the sun’s underlying magnetic field has weakened by more than 30% since the mid-1990s,” …
    Unpublished Ulysses cosmic ray data show that, indeed, high energy (GeV) electrons, a minor but telltale component of cosmic rays around Earth, have jumped in number by about 20%…. there are controversial studies linking cosmic ray fluxes to cloudiness and climate change on Earth. That link may be tested in the years ahead.

  27. R. de Haan says:

    There is a state of panic among the proponents and the corrupt circis in charge of the “Energiewende”. This was a bad winter for wind and solar and now they are wondering what next.
    This winter certainly forced the the happy green hookers to get real and many Germans who invested heavily in solar installations based on irrational minimum/maximum scenario’s to get really mad when they recieved their electricity bill. They are well below 20% of the minimum scenario for solar. Don’t you love it?

  28. DirkH says:

    Ron, you produce only a quarter in winter anyway; shorter days, lower sun. If it stays as cloudy as it’s now through summer, now that would REALLY wreck their profitability.

  29. Gail Combs says:

    R. de Haan says:
    6 April 2013 at 10:25 pm

    There is a state of panic among the proponents and the corrupt circis….
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    Mother Nature must be laughing her head off. link

  30. E.M.Smith says:

    @DirkH & R. de Haan:

    Hmmmm…. interesting cloudy metric, that solar output… Hard to hide it, now that it’s in the power bills ;-)

    Anyone know of any records of “cloudy day %” from about 1950-60? Or even during the Dalton. IF we can show a clouds cycle of about 60 years (or 180) and then this summer is undeniably cloudy… Well, that would be nice…

    @J. Ferguson:

    The Germans have never been all that great at heaters and A/C. Don’t know why. Even my Mercedes is a bit, um, “heater & A/C challenged”. The ’84 wagon in Phoenix in August was, er, nearly abandoned for a rental. (Then again, that was the year the tarmac at the airport melted and they shut down the airport ;-) 126 F in the shade? And there ain’t no shade…

    We went back to the hotel and hit the pool… and decided that driving around Phoenix in August was best not done at 2 in the afternoon….

    @Gordon Walker:

    What is the usual temp? That sound low to me, but I don’t have a comparison point.

    @Gail:

    As I detailed in an earlier posting, there is a “stable warm” zone at max of the Milankovich cycle, then it goes unstable (to ocean currents) when away from the peak N. insolation. So since we are now well away from “max”, we are entering the unstable zone.

    The “good new”, from my perspective, is that then the heat backs up in Florida and the American South East… so we get warm while Europe ices over…

    (So all you folks in England and Germany: Get yourself a small condo in Florida now. Rent it out to tourists during summers and then head over here “to inspect your property” in winter ;-)

    @Tckev:

    It’s the UV that makes the changes happen. Look at the differential absorption. (I’m pondering a posting…) That’s the solar cycle.

    A separate orbital cycle (Millankovich) causes the very long thousands of years changes of stability points. Then a millions years scale drift of continents changes long term things like if Ice Ages can happen at all.

    Then there are the lunar cycles of 9 to 1800 years… that are VERY important…

    Mix, stir.

    Don’t know exactly how to integrate what Vukcevic has done with EMF. It’s on some kind of cycle, but don’t know which is cause and which effect. On my “someday” is to look for correlations with lunar / solar patterns.

    @Vuk:

    I rather like that particular F.T. skit ;-)

    @Petrossa:

    Part of the “dirty little secret” of electric cars. That all that “waste heat” from gas engines isn’t all that wasted for most of the year in many places. Heck, even my Diesel is challenged with “not enough ‘waste’ heat” in the very cold. Also running an A/C in traffic in Phoenix in August is going to “interesting” for some folks ;-) IIRC, it’s about 5 hp just for a good A/C… and it runs constantly there…

    In places with “extreme climate” a lot of folks are going to discover that they are now paying for heat and A/C at mains electric rates…

    FWIW, there was a VW back in the ’80s that had an added fuel driven heater in it. I think it was a Diesel, but I’m not sure. At any rate, it’s a known problem of too efficient an engine in very cold places…

  31. The usual temperature here in Midi is about 13 to 18°C at this time of the year but this spring has been mainly much colder than normal. Based upon my experience over the last 20 years here, both spring and autumn have cooled since the end of the nineties.

  32. vukcevic says:

    Gail Combs says:
    6 April 2013 at 10:03 pm
    ……
    Hi Ms Combs
    About some misconceptions regarding the Northern Hemisphere’s magnetic pole.
    – There are two centres of magnetic intensity, one to the west of Hudson Bay and the other in the central Siberia.

    These locations have been more or less stationary since 1600’s (based on the compass historic data). What has changed is their relative intensity.
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/AT-GMF.gif (note reversed scale)
    The Hudson Bay’s leg has been loosing while the Siberian gaining the strength.
    See also http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/data/mag_maps/pdf/F_map_mf_2010.pdf
    – To add further to the confusion there is large difference in what a compass dip-needle or a magnetograph see on the surface (red dots) and what solar wind or geomagnetic storms see (blue dots)

    the aurora oval http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/images/Ovation_USA.png
    is cantered on location of blue dots.
    If climate is influenced by geomagnetic field action on cosmic rays (Svensmark etc) or similar, then there was no appreciable movement of the N. pole since 1900 (blue dots link).
    If the magnetic field change effect is on the ocean currents than average of two fields on the surface is the factor, than the area of strongest field in the Arctic Ocean is in the area of Beaufort Gyre (the Arctic’s circulation flywheel, see the first link) which is little to do with ‘conventional’ position of the magnetic north pole (red dots link).
    Finally and most likely is that the changes in magnetic field are reflected in the tectonic activity which is modulating the warm/cold currents balance in the critical areas, such as Denmark Strait and Reykjanes ridge , driving the subpolar gyre (home of the AMO) the engine of heat transfer in the N. Atlantic.

  33. Gail Combs says:

    Thanks, Vukcevic for straightening that out.. When it comes to Geomagnitism, I know you have done a lot of research in the area.

    William Astley comments are here:
    original: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/05/warming-and-worry-go-awol/#comment-1266608
    response to Dr Norman Page’s question: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/02/global-cooling-methods-and-testable-decadal-predictions/#comment-1264726
    ….the Younger Dryas burn marks: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/02/global-cooling-methods-and-testable-decadal-predictions/#comment-1265422
    ….I have significantly more material … http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/02/global-cooling-methods-and-testable-decadal-predictions/#comment-1265534
    more: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/02/global-cooling-methods-and-testable-decadal-predictions/#comment-1265745

    You made one comment upthread (I like your graph) but didn’t challenge Astley later so I wasn’t sure what to think. Now you have saved me a lot of time hunting down a myth.

  34. Gail Combs says:

    YIKES!

    This from WUWT – marcvsbarcvs says:

    It’s not a “slight” cooling trend in the UK.

    Global warming has slammed hard into reverse.

    Even the Met Office’s own HadCET series with a 10 year smoothing shows that temperatures in the UK have been declining for the last 10 years as fast as they were ever increasing at the height of the global warming scare in the 90′s:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

    As recently as Wednesday this week – in APRIL – a 26 year old university graduate, who was staying in an unheated derelict house researching a documentary on homelessness, died of hypothermia:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9974349/Film-maker-Lee-Halpin-may-have-frozen-to-death-while-researching-homelessness-documentary.html

    Astonishing and rather terrifying; a young man dying indoors of hypothermia in April in 21st Century Britain.

    It is getting bad when a 26 year old dies from hypothermia in April indoors.

  35. vukcevic says:

    Gail Combs says:
    You made one comment upthread (I like your graph) but didn’t challenge Astley later so I wasn’t sure what to think.
    Hi again
    I usually get into a tangle with the Stanford’s Solar Sage, that is enough excitement, but more importantly often there is something new to learn from it.

  36. DirkH says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    7 April 2013 at 12:07 am
    “Anyone know of any records of “cloudy day %” from about 1950-60? ”

    I only have links for the satellite era; but they’re interesting enough.

    This page has a chart back to 1983. And links.
    http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2006/01/11/jumping-to-conclusions-frogs-global-warming-and-nature/
    Again, back to 1983

  37. j ferguson says:

    Gail Combs,
    From time to time, at Bishop’s, a reference is made to additional-death rate in England due to cost of heating – usually the elderly. The most recent number was 2,000/month. I’ve asked there more than twice about whether this number is thought reliable by the readers who might know, if it is, is doing anything about it contemplated, and if not is there any effective outrage over it. No-one ever takes on this issue in the sense of sharing thoughts on why there seems no outrage. I’m dumbfounded.

    The discussion is generally that these early deaths can be assigned to government policy and its upward influence on energy costs via stupid programs.

    Maybe the number is bogus, or maybe no-one cares how pensioners depart this life or when.

    This week, the Telegraph contained an article on the deaths, but little sense of whether they are an “issue.”

    It could be that a lot of the departures are people who have accurately gauged the social and political environment of the next twenty or thirty years and simply don’t want to be here for it.

    but why no outrage?

  38. Adrian Ashfield says:

    vukcevic,
    Thank you for showing me some new stuff that I didn’t know.

  39. E.M.Smith says:

    @J Ferguson:

    People have an emotional response to individual deaths of those that they know.
    People do not have an emotional response to a statistic.

    So some %/year dying from lung cancer from smoking? No outrage.
    Some %/year dying in car accidents? No outrage.
    How many young men/year dying in battles in foreign lands? No outrage.

    Add to that a long tradition of being “stoic” about things, well,… There have been a few hundred years of folks “putting up with” various problems and stupidities there. So how many died in W.W.I battlefields in France alone? How many in air raids in W.W.II? (My mother was part of a team of children that threw sand bags on fire bombs. She was about 15 or 16 years old. Then a few got blown up as a ‘delay then explode’ feature was added, so they had to count to 10 or so before running up to throw sand bags on a firebomb…) Folks will talk about things with each other, and often (politely) express some opinion or dismay, but outrage is just not British… At least, not the “Old School” British that was Mum…

    That “Quiet Burn” aspect of the British character regularly misleads other folks in the world. It gets mistaken for “I am weak”, or “I don’t care”, or even “I am dumb”. What it usually has meant is “I am planning your demise”. So I’m hoping the Britain of old has not faded away, and that the same “Slow burn” character is still at work; planning the demise of a few selected political idiots.

    (I fear that the Britain of old packed up and left for the USA, Australia, Canada, etc. etc. and the ones that stayed behind were the ones less “independent” minded…

    At any rate, the whole “Put on an emotional display” thing is just not a good way to measure the British attitude.

  40. DirkH says:

    @ChiefIO:
    “That “Quiet Burn” aspect of the British character regularly misleads other folks in the world. It gets mistaken for “I am weak”, or “I don’t care”, or even “I am dumb”. What it usually has meant is “I am planning your demise”. So I’m hoping the Britain of old has not faded away, and that the same “Slow burn” character is still at work; planning the demise of a few selected political idiots.”

    If you turn it around that sounds like an almost perfect description of the Fabians. (named after Fabian, “The Delayer”; their goal is to convert societies from within into a socialist utopia, gradualists, literally planning the demise of the previously existing society.) And it is most definitely at work; as they have been founded about 10 years before the Labor party and control the Labor party since its foundation. The London School Of Economics is the predominant breeding ground it seems, with interesting international connections, for instance the kids of Gadafhi, or at least one I know of, went there.

    So to me it looks like a lot of the ones that are still in the UK are mostly planning their own demise. But wouldn’t call it a demise.

    This is their symbol; the wolf in sheep’s clothing. From their famous tinted glass window.

    Makes you wonder whether they use France as a testbed. Only kidding.

  41. Gail Combs says:

    vukcevic says:
    7 April 2013 at 11:32 am
    …. I usually get into a tangle with the Stanford’s Solar Sage, that is enough excitement….
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    I love your tangles with Stanford’s Solar Sage. He is going to defend the sun is constant even if it goes super nova.

    It does not escape my notice that Stanford University is also the home of John Holdren and l R. Ehrlich who made this famous quote.

    “A massive campaign must be launched to restore a high-quality environment in North America and to de-develop the United States…

    Resources must be diverted from frivolous and wasteful uses in overdeveloped countries to filling the genuine needs of underdeveloped countries,” Holdren and his co-authors wrote. “This effort must be largely political, especially with regard to our overexploitation of world resources, but the campaign should be strongly supplemented by legal and boycott action against polluters and others whose activities damage the environment. The need for de-development presents our economists with a major challenge. They must design a stable, low-consumption economy in which there is a much more equitable distribution of wealth than in the present one. Redistribution of wealth both within and among nations is absolutely essential, if a decent life is to be provided for every human being.”

    Now we find CAGW being used as the excuse to de-develop the United States and the EU with The Solar Sage stoutly defending one of the three major pillars of CAGW. Ferdinand Englebeen defends the second pillar, CO2 is a well mixed gas while Steve Mosher defends the last pillar, the temperature record and models. Sure makes you wonder….

  42. j ferguson says:

    E.M.
    I suspect i read everything posted at Bishop’s, especially the comments and don’t find any reticence among our brothers and sisters ‘cross the pond to become agitated on other subjects in which most of us have an interest. Maybe, as you say, 2,000 additional deaths is an abstraction, but as this is alleged to result from government policies roundly condemned at that site, one would think the deaths a call to action.

    It could also be that interest from the colonies might be thought unseemly – none of my business, perhaps.

    I had wondered if the problem was simply “living beyond their means” or had living itself become “beyond their means?”

    And no. I don’t think this figure has any similarity to losses via auto-accidents or other mortality incurred in the course of some more or less voluntary activity.

  43. J Martin says:

    I think that the pensioner hypothermia problem in the UK isn’t going to go away any year soon. Much of the housing stock in the UK cannot be heated satisfactorily or economically throughout winter. So as a result pensioners try to manage their heating, but there are problems with this as this means that temperatures in different rooms can vary and temperatures can vary throughout the day leading to slightly higher stress levels on the body which would not impact a younger person but can put an older person at risk.

    On top of that pensioners are much less able than a younger person to tell if they are cold or not, and far less likely to detect if the level of cold might be dangerous. And so an increased death toll is the result. For pensioners able to live in modern well insulated homes where the central heating can keep the entire house at comfortable levels 24 hours a day yet return a manageable bill then the issue of becoming part of the ‘excess UK winter deaths’ does not exist.

    Since the UK house building industry has been in a slump for several years now, and as a generalisation the more vulnerable pensioners also live in the oldest housing this problem isn’t going to go away in a hurry. Fracking and reduced gas bills may help, but bills are going up not down, and winter time temperatures are set to plunge, so we can expect to see the pensioner death rate climb still further over the coming years.

  44. E.M.Smith says:

    Maybe I’m just more willing to do “tacky things”, but were I living in a very cold poorly insulated house, I’d be making “wall hangings” our of wool covers with styrofoam fill in them… and putting “bubble wrap” in the windows.

    That, and having an electric blanket close to hand for the very cold times… Heck, as it is I’ll sometimes toss a “holofill’ sleeping bag over the bed or chair when it’s particularly cold.

    Like when I was sitting all night on the patio in winter to “explain” to a local cat that my bunnies were not for his amusement… Took the better part of a week of it for him to ‘catch on’ that an Airsoft Pellet could come whooshing out of the dark at him at any time. I had an LED lamp pointed where the “Fence Highway” from down the block came to my yard, and I was seated behind the lamp in the dark He could not see me… For anyone worried “Airsoft” pellets are vey light plastic things about the size of a fat spherical lentil. They are free of any potential to damage, or even hurt. They do ruffle fur, make a “whoosh” as they fly by, and make a ‘tink’ sound when they hit the fence. All ‘disturbing’ to the cat. I likely could have “trained the cat” in one episode with a steel BB at low power, but that has some risk attached.

    The point being that I was sitting outdoors in winter at about 40 F and while ti was cold, was managed with a $40 sleeping bag and a good hat.

    When I was a kid, I got my own room via Dad building one in the attic. It was unheated and the roof was not insulated. It would often get quite cold (air temps inland where that house was located could hit 26 F often and 19 F once IIRC). Again, a good sleeping bag and a knit sleeping cap were enough. I came to associate the cold with feeling good and thought I just “Like the cold”. Only later realizing that it put me in clean air away from tobacco; that Dad smoked and I was allergic to tobacco smoke…

    So while not ideal ( IMHO, 72-76 F is ideal ;-) it is possible to do well in the cold with enough “bundling up”. Though I remember it was a whole lot nicer when I got an electric blanket for one Christmas ;-)

    Maybe the UK could start a program of issuing e-blankets to old folks on pensions…

  45. Gail Combs says:

    Speaking of the pensioner hypothermia problem and Outrage, my favorite journalist has something to say.

    An English class for trolls, professional offence-takers and climate activists by James Delingpole

    ….Should Michael Mann be given the electric chair for having concocted arguably the most risibly inept, misleading, cherry-picking, worthless and mendacious graph – the Hockey Stick – in the history of junk science?

    Should George Monbiot be hanged by the neck for his decade or so’s hysterical promulgation of the great climate change scam and other idiocies too numerous to mention?

    Should Tim Flannery be fed to the crocodiles for the role he has played in the fleecing of the Australian taxpayer and the diversion of scarce resources into pointless projects like all the eyewateringly expensive desalination plants built as a result of his doomy prognostications about water shortages caused by catastrophic anthropogenic global warming?

    It ought to go without saying that my answer to all these questions is – *regretful sigh* – no….

    The last thing I would want is for Monbiot, Mann, Flannery, Jones, Hansen and the rest of the Climate rogues’ gallery to be granted the mercy of quick release. Publicly humiliated? Yes please. Having all their crappy books remaindered? Definitely. Dragged away from their taxpayer funded troughs and their cushy sinecures, to be replaced by people who actually know what they’re talking about? For sure. But hanging? Hell no. Hanging is far too good for such ineffable toerags.

    This isn’t to say that there isn’t a strong case for the myriad dodgy scientists-on-the-make, green activists, posturing and ignorant politicians, rent-seeking corporatists, UN apparatchiks, EU technocrats and hopelessly out-of-their-depth environment correspondents who talked up the global warming scare to be brought to account for the vast damage they have done to the global economy, for the people they have caused to die in fuel poverty, for the needless regulations they have inflicted on us, for the landscapes they have ravaged with wind farms, and so on….

    He goes on to talk of the warmists (Richard Tol) deliberately taking his concluding sentence in an essay in The Australian “Deluged with Flannery and covered in Viner” literally when it was obviously a metaphor.
    This was the sentence:

    The climate alarmist industry has some very tough questions to answer: preferably in the defendant’s dock in a court of law, before a judge wearing a black cap.

    As James says “..How do you hang an “industry”, I wonder. How exactly do you put a rope round a dodgy computer model? Or a £13.7 million UEA climate research grant? Or an article in Guardian Environment pages…”

    I think those with a guilty conscience are a bit afraid that sentences like that will give some people Ideas especially when their more vocal member are calling for our deaths. With the temperatures set to take a nose dive, given rare species of bats and birds are being chopped by windmills, the landscape is blighted by windmills and solar farms and granny and granpaw are freezing to death I would be a tad bit worried too.

    I really do enjoy Delingpole’s biting wit.

  46. Gail Combs says:

    As an ‘old folk’ I too have no real problem with the cold. Given the state of our finances we no longer heat the house since it warms enough during the day to keep the pipes from freezing when it heads for 15F at night. We have a couple of space heaters instead. One in the office (smallest room in the house) one in the bedroom to take the chill off (I like 50-55F) and one, rarely used in the kitchen to warm the hands when cooking.

    However good insulation is key. I have rented up north ‘Historic’ houses built before the US revolution. Just tacking up plastic over the entire window AND frame and all the doors but one can make a big difference. The bedroom was an unheated attic room and I used an electric blanket with a good sleeping bag over the top (a no-no) when the temperatures headed to under 30 below. The poor electric blanket just wasn’t warm enough otherwise.

    The big problem with hypothermia is you do not feel cold just sleepy. And yeah I have been there.

  47. tckev says:

    Thanks EM and Gail Combs for your reference etc.

  48. agimarc says:

    Interesting the winter of 1883 was the last coldest for Germany. Krakatau popped in May 1883, though Willis Eschenbach at WUWT has posted at least a couple threads arguing against any connection between massive volcanic eruptions and colder weather. The other opposite speculation is that periods of quiet sun in some way cause massive volcanic eruptions.

    Here in AK, the snow machine turned back on a week or so ago, with dumps of 14″, a record 6″ (for the day) Sunday, and another 6″ yesterday in Anchorage. Looking at possible below zero temps tonight. Looks like breakup, ice off the local lakes and garden planting is going to be about 2 weeks late unless something spectacular happens. But the days are over 14 hours long and the sunlight eventually wins over the snow and ice. Cheers –

  49. E.M.Smith says:

    @Tckev:

    You are most welcome.

    @Agimarc:

    So I’ve missed my window of opportunity to Drive the Alcan Highway in comfort for another 30 years, eh?
    ;-)

    IMHO, it is all driven by tides and UV. For the volcanoes, the same change of Length Of Day and tides that the moon causes to air and water, results in slopping about of the magma. Wobble a big old blob of magma under a thinning brittle crust, well…

    So look at the “lunar tidal” postings and the way lunar tides change the oceans over various cycles of 1800 years, 179 years, 60 years, etc. Then look at volcanic cycles. Then ask yourself:

    We know there are tides in the water, air, and crust. Ought there not be tide in the magma? And what would that do to volcanoes?

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