FXI China vs FXE EU vs USA

There are long term patterns in charts. Old friends who’s presence you can see with just a glance. Familiar roadside inns that remind you this road has been traveled many times before and nothing to worry about, just the usual bends in the road.

Things like the way SPY, DIA, RUT, and QQQQ all move together. Usually QQQQ leading / rising a bit more as it is the “Tech Engine” of US Growth, with DIA lagging a bit (both up and down) as the established “staid” industrials (that now include drug companies, banks, and other non-industrials… along with old growth companies past their growth phase). SPY is my usual “benchmark” since, as the 500 largest companies in America, it represents the successful core of the nation. (Losers tend to leave the bottom, new growth industries get elevated into it early enough to still get some of the glory and growth.) Then there is RUT, the 2000 Small Capitalization companies. Most of them too small to make it into the SPY, and some of them not part of the 100 Nasdaq Tech Companies in the QQQQ (that is dominated by Apple Computer anyway).

So typically when things are running hot, RUT gets the “spill over” money as folks look for small “up and comers” to bet on. DIA tends to hold up better when folks are looking for mattress stuffers. QQQQ shows new Tech Fads and increasingly is an Apple Barometer. (At one time AAPL was 20% of the QQQQ index. Now that AAPL is falling, expect a ‘rebalance’…) SPY is the best all around benchmark for the USA overall. In new ‘up runs’, SPY gets out the gate early (having never been pulled down as much as RUT or sometimes QQQQ) but as the run ages, more speculative bets go into RUT and QQQQ. Near tops, they have tended to ‘overshoot’ DIA and SPY; demonstrating the “risk taking” and enthusiasm. Just like at bottoms then tended more the other way, showing the move from “risk on” into “risk off” and those Pfizer and Proctor & Gamble “safer” stocks.

So one of my “usual” things to look for is those “outside” moments. When RUT & QQQQ are “outside” of DIA and SPY. They often show extremes about to take a break. Inflection coming. Yet in a chart in the prior posting:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/rollover-rut/

We saw that QQQQ was way under SPY while RUT was rising nicely. I mostly attributed that to the collapse of the AAPL share price; but it likely also reflects some broader bad news. All those Apple Suppliers, for example, seeing lower sales as the Samsung Galaxy is seen, increasingly, as “Good Enough” compared to the iPhone, and a lot cheaper. The “Tech World” tends to be an “ecology” that moves together for many players.

But it left me wondering: Was there more here?

There are other “old friends” in the patterns. Globally, most stocks move together. (The notion of ‘diversification’ by owning a bit of emerging markets or European vs USA stocks is really not a good one. It is more owning different volatilities in the same movement profile). Then there are things like the Japanese Yen that have been steady basically flat things, but with a bit of upward bias. With some work, you could ‘read the tea leaves’ of the “Carry Trade” in the minor movements. Folks borrowing $Billions or €Billions in ¥ Yen terms. As stocks would have a spike up, the ¥ would dip just a touch, as stocks would dive, the ¥ would rise. The JCB Japanese Central Bank generally holding up a “Strong Yen”, but taking a bit of time to respond to folks like Soros flipping $Billions into ¥Trillions and back again in days or hours. With ‘near zero’ interest rates, it was the place to borrow cash for ‘the big boys’.

So I ran one of my “compare and contrast” charts. It came out a bit ‘complex and hard to read’, but with very interesting things on it. THE biggest one is just that a lot of old friends have died or run off somewhere… On the left side, global stocks move generally together when they move. On the right side, there is a giant divergence. Just strange.

FXI China vs EU USA Yen

FXI China vs EU USA Yen

Since it is so hard to read, I’ve made it the really big version from Bigcharts. You can get a live version to play with at Bigcharts.com by clicking here or ’embiggen’ that static one by clicking on it.

I’ve generally been just sitting in the corner in cash the last few months as “things were strange”. As my home currency is $US and it gets a big lift in the ‘flight to safety’ movements, that’s been a benefit to me. There have been a great many trades I could have made, some with large gains, that I’ve let go by. Partly from sloth (it is one of my major faults). Partly from simple risk avoidance. Partly from not being “on top of it” enough to do things like put on a “Long EWJ short ¥” trade fast enough, even though it was clearly coming once BOJ decided to bugger the ¥ and join the USA and EU in printing currency like crazy. But life is like that some times. Sometimes you have other things to work on, it looks like an ok time to push back from the trading table. Sometimes it is and sometimes it isn’t. And sometimes it turns out that the whole game is having a reshuffle then, so maybe having been ‘out of the fray’ was a good thing.

Yes, some opportunities missed. (“There is always another train leaving the station.” -E.M.Smith but lifted from someone else so long ago I’ve lost the pointer to the original) But when your usual guideposts are being mowed down and your “old friends” are acting strangely, just how good would the execution on those trades have been? Unknown, but worse than the usual level of performance. Learning new tricks takes time.

Now look at the “dispersion” on the right, vs the ‘march together’ on the left. (Remember that TLT, the long term bonds, tends to move in opposition to stocks). Look how FXY Yen is nearly dead flat on the left, dropping like a stone on the right.

Some kind of “pivot” happened last Oct / Nov. I would guess it was EU related as that’s what we were all worried about then. There was also a USA election. Good luck sorting out just which bit of ‘news flow’ was causal and just which bits of Whale Global Apparatus drove that pivot. The Elephants Dance is a private ball and we are not invited. So no telling who stepped on what toes. Yet we can hear the noise of the trunks trumpeting and feel the stamped for the doors…

It looks, to me, like that is the point where the thin grey line of FXY ¥ pivots down. Where the JCB decided to Bugger The Yen. At that point, too, a lot of Whales will have looked to park their winnings in banks not in ¥ terms. Giant money would flow. There looks to have also been some ‘enthusiasm’ for the EU going on. Like “this time for sure” they were going to “fix it”. That bright yellow EZU fund of EU stocks, rising nicely for months (until Feb and “Screw Cyprus” hits…)

Harder to see are things like copper (the gold line in this chart – it is usually used for GLD but they both moved similarly in this time period, and copper is an indicator of economic activity / production.) Moving nicely with stocks on the left. Plunging with the Yen on the right. Hmmm… So I added the main ticker. FXI China 25 big stocks. China now buys most of the copper as they do most of the making of things. What happened with them?

A nearly ‘text book’ bottom last September. After 4 nearly identical ‘failure to advance to the downside’ (sometimes called a ‘retest of the lows’) the SMA stack merges, price crosses it, ‘retests’ from above and fails to penetrate, then it’s ‘off to the races’ in October. So China moved a bit early. Ploughing right through whatever happened in November. Ignoring the EU issues. Right up until a ‘go flat’ failure to advance in January. Price rolls over, starts tracking the 24 day line SMA down, doesn’t even bother with a ‘retest’ of the SMA stack, and is in a strong down trend ever since. Parallel to that plunge in copper that started just a bit later. Copper prices lead coming off the bottom. China leads leaving the top. I suspect that is due to inventory issues. At the bottom, folks need to buy copper to start making things THEN production numbers show up. At the top, they have been buying copper and slow production, but it takes a while for the lower copper buys and inventory of finished goods to show up. First the sales of finished good drop, then the copper buying slows as stock of copper builds up.

Also of interest is that blue line. EEM the Emerging Markets broader basket. It leads China off the bottom, and rolls over and dies first too. The more “dodgy” E.M. stocks get abandoned early, but also get a faster rise on small amounts of money flowing in off of a bottom. Even if not investing in Emerging Markets, they look like a decent canary…

We can also see that FXE the Euro and EZU the EU ETF rollover together on Cyprus and the “Bank Raid” behaviors. Folks bailing on the EU, but unable to put money in ¥ and with the E.M. tanking. So it flows to the last “safe haven”, propping up the US Stock Market and $US Treasuries and major corporate bonds. The green SPY and raspberry RUT lines just keep on rising as others tank. The dark TLT line (middle of the pack on the right edge) rising against the tide too.

Another interesting “tell” that I’ll break out into a separate chart is that black line for the UK. EWU wobbles a bit with the other tickers around it, but mostly just looks like it is ‘standing aside’ as stability. Not part of the US election. Not part of the EU € Banking debacle. Not part of the E.M. or China manufacturing slump. Probably wondering what all the fuss is about ;-)

OK, the “indicators” on that main China ticker are pretty dismal. RSI on the low side and laying there. Not even doing the usual ‘touch the middle and drop again’ as a dropping stock usually returns to the SMA stack. Just straight dropping. MACD moving in a sideways weave, well below the zero line. “Just dropping” is what it says too. DMI has hard “red on top” with blue looking dead on the bottom and a rising ADX line saying strength of the move is picking up. Just dropping.

Overall, this chart looks to me like it is saying actual sales and production are a bit dismal. Folks in the USA are a bit ‘tapped out’ and with rising tax burdens, so not buying a lot of stuff from China. The EU in the dumper and not buying much either. Capital flight out of ¥ and from the EU propping up the US Treasury Bond market and US Stocks, but even RUT is fading (so maybe foreign money favoring big cap stocks and RUT is indicating the real economic condition). The UK standing on the sidelines watching it all (and waiting for a proper spring / summer). All while the Central Banks of the EU, USA, Japan and who knows what all else are trying to fix Fiscal Spending problems with Monetary Printing solutions (that simply can’t do that job; but can bugger up all sorts of markets and prices while “bubble and bust” runs rampant.)

Sheesh. What’s a fella to do… In a way, I’m glad to be ‘sitting in cash’. OTOH, with lines moving that steeply, there have been great opportunities to short some things against other things. ( China against the USA, for example, or Yen against the Japanese stocks). So either “complex trades” or “sit it out” looks viable.

But with all of it Central Bank Driven, and news flow dependent, it’s a risky trade. You just don’t know what any given Central Bank will announce tomorrow. For example, shorting ¥ could get you creamed if tomorrow the JCB announces a change of policy to a higher Yen and yen buying to commence at $20 Billion…

So if you can watch the news flow daily, there are some decent trades. If you can’t, we saw in the other posting that TIP was a nice safe haven. For now… It also looks like some ‘wandering the globe’ to more “uninvolved” countries is likely in order. Places like New Zealand and Australia and Indonesia, not connected to the EU. Not in the ‘carry trade’. Not part of the USA political & printing mess. Heck, even Russia might be a better place. So that’s what the next postings on money will look at. The ROW Rest Of World.

I’ll also put a few live ‘break out charts’ of the above tickers where you can see a bit better what the lines are doing (now) and also watch them move over time going forward. (Or you can just go to Bigcharts.com yourself and ‘roll your own’ charts).

Here is China FXI vs Gold GLD, Copper JJC, ¥ FXY, and € FXE

China FXI vs Gold, Copper, Yen, and Euro

China FXI vs Gold, Copper, Yen, and Euro

The UK EWU and £ FXB, vs Australia EWA and $A FXA, vs EU EZU and € FXE, vs Swiss Franc FXF

UK vs EU vs Australia

UK vs EU vs Australia

You can see where all four currencies move down together in Feb Mar what is most likely really a $US strengthening move on flight out of the EU and into $US. It also looks like Australia has at least ‘gone flat’ with ‘failure to advance’ lately and is likely starting a ‘roll over’ on weakening China demand. A “Dig Here!” for another posting.

Interesting chart of Russia RSX, Gold GLD, Oil USO, Brazil EWZ, Emerging Markets EEM, China FXI

Russia, China, Brazil, Emerging Markets vs Oil and Gold

Russia, China, Brazil, Emerging Markets vs Oil and Gold

Brazil and oil moving strongly together (not too surprising as Petrobras is a large part of EWZ). Russia, E.M., and China more or less in sync. Not all that surprising, I suppose, as the $US swings will be reflected in all of them, and as we have a mix of resource based economies with the major resource user. Demand for end products swinging all of them together. Russia does surprise me a bit. I’d have thought them a little more disconnected from the others. Still, with both oil and gold dropping, their major cash exports drop.

In Conclusion

Hopefully the break out charts help make it a bit easier to see some of the details.

In general, it looks like until the EU gets it’s act together and / or demand for Chinese manufactures pick up; the ‘hiding place’ is $US bonds like TIP Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and in the UK (though in exactly what is a bit hard to say). Until the JCB decides what their money is worth, Japan is a trading vehicle only. It also looks like a fair amount of the ‘wobbling’ in those chart lines is really $US flux, so folks OOTU (Out Of The USA) might have smoother charts and a smoother ride.

It is also pretty clear that the Resource Stocks and China Manufacture cluster get a lot of volatility as folks stop spending and hunker down, or get euphoric and open the wallet. With present global conditions, there’s a whole lot of hoping that “easy money” will get folks spending like crazy again. Yet the facts on the ground, and in the charts, says that money is not ending up in the pockets of ‘spenders’ but in the pockets of folks stuffing it into investments. Basically, Big Bank Money doesn’t fix a low consumption rate, it fuels an over investment bubble (probably in real estate and resources) and easy Monetary Policy doesn’t fix an over spending Fiscal Policy problem.

I expect this mess will continue until the Central Bankers of the world are run out of town (or “see the light after feeling the heat…”) I’m not seeing a lot of income / spending power growth in the ‘consuming class’, so not seeing what’s going to ‘fix it’. Just more pressure to unemployment and higher taxes making things worse and inflating prices with relatively flat incomes. I also suspect the US Stock Market can not long be sustained on ‘flight to quality and safety’ fear trades.

Well, at least it’s fun to watch…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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5 Responses to FXI China vs FXE EU vs USA

  1. Gail Combs says:

    I think I posted this elsewhere but it belongs here:

    California Seizing Safe Deposit Boxes to Balance Budget

    The State of California turned their unclaimed property program into a $5.1 billion slush fund. Over the years, and through multiple budget crises, California reduced the holding period for unclaimed property from 15 years down to three. Desperate to pay for their political largesse, Californian legislators even pushed to reduce the holding time for rightful owners to claim their property down to only 1 year.

    They stopped sending notices to the rightful owners too. In an internal memo obtained by ABC News, the lawyer for California’s Bureau of Unclaimed Property objected to efforts to find the owners because “It could well result in additional claims of monies that would otherwise flow into the general fund.”…..

    Another way to kill US farmers: Seize their bank accounts on phony charges

    ….While being questioned, the Sowers were finally presented with a seizure order and advised that the feds had already emptied their bank account of $70,000. The Dept. of Justice has since sued to keep $63,000 of the Sowers’ money, though they committed no crime….

    ….a similar action was taken against Taylor’s Produce Stand last year, the feds seized $90,000, dropped the charges, and kept $45,000 of Taylor’s money….

    Knowing that most farms operate on a very thin margin, such abuse of power wipes out a family’s income….

    City Paper reports that in 2011, “Maryland brought 14 of the nation’s 99 structuring cases, making it the top state for such prosecutions. Nationally, the numbers have been rising; the 2011 figures are up 8.8 percent from the year before and up 57.1 percent from five years ago.”

    Funny, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and other criminal banksters are still in operation, despite committing millions of acts of fraud during mortgage reassignations. But the DOJ prioritizes squashing family farmers since it’s easier to pick the low-hanging fruit than do battle with well-financed criminals who’ve illegally seized the homes of millions of US citizens.

    Former Maryland assistant U.S. attorney Steven Levin told the paper, “The emphasis is on basically seizing money, whether it is legally or illegally earned. It can lead to financial ruin for business owners, and there’s a potential for abuse here by the government.”….

    So the money grab is on by the government, given the internet, keeping this type of news out of the Government Propaganda Outlets MSM is not going to work for long. Yes this is a great way to inspire confidence in the public who are the engine that runs the economy. [ Three-quarters of Americans distrust the government ]

    To add to that news is FDR’s First Fireside Chat where he lies through his teeth but let’s one gem fall. He basically says you have no right to your money and that you are only allowed to have access to your deposits for legitimate purposes which the government and the banks can define in any way they see fit.

    Franklin Delano Roosevelt: First Fireside Chat
    …First of all, let me state the simple fact that when you deposit money in a bank, the bank does not put the money into a safe deposit vault. It invests your money…. In other words, the bank puts your money to work to keep the wheels of industry and of agriculture turning around. [Lie #1, much was gambled away outside the USA link just as US bailout money was. link ]

    ….Remember that no sound bank is a dollar worse off than it was when it closed its doors last week. Neither is any bank which may turn out not to be in a position for immediate opening. The new law allows the twelve Federal Reserve Banks to issue additional currency on good assets and thus the banks that reopen will be able to meet every legitimate call. The new currency is being sent out by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing in large volume to every part of the country. It is sound currency because it is backed by actual, good assets…. [Lie #2 In Fractional Reserve Banking via the 1913 Act only 18% of the US dollar was backed by ‘good assets’ **]

    … Let me make it clear to you that the banks will take care of all needs, except, of course, the hysterical demands of hoarders and it is my belief that hoarding during the past week has become an exceedingly unfashionable pastime in every part of our nation. It needs no prophet to tell you that when the people find that they can get their money — that they can get it when they want it for all legitimate purposes — the phantom of fear will soon be laid. People will again be glad to have their money where it will be safely taken care of and where they can use it conveniently at any time….

    So banks can refuse to give money to “hoarders” or those who do not have a ‘legitimate purpose” Now tell me again, just WHOSE wealth is this anyway?

    ** Under the National Bank Act of 1863, the reserve ratio (fractional reserve requirement) was 25%. Under the 1913 Federal Reserve Act, it was reduced to 18%. By 1917 it was further reduced to 13%…

  2. Graeme No.3 says:

    Australia is in a “holding pattern” waiting for the September election. No one wants to make commitments when this crazy government could change the rules any day. They flip flop on policy almost daily. The only constants are their spending frenzy and frantic attempts to find enough to make the deficit look acceptable. Latest poll has them at 29%.

    Nervousness about chinese economy doesn’t help confidence.

    There are just a few weeks of parliament sitting before the election (the Budget session), when a split between Labor and the independents that prop it up could occur. If 2 (of the 4 supporting Labor) switch then the Government falls, but they will all lose their seats at the election, so a switch is very unlikely.

  3. u.k.(us) says:

    I’ve been watching my “retirement” mutual funds ride the rollercoaster.
    I got fully in, just before the ’08 bubble burst. (I felt it coming).
    Now I’m back to even.

    I’m not a trader, so, show I bail now ?
    About 1 week ago, I was on the phone with my “broker”, I nearly said “sell everything”.

    Are we in for a 10 year flat-line ?, or do you see movement ?

    What’s your hunch ?
    (I need some money now).

  4. E.M.Smith says:

    @u.k.(us):

    It is illegal for me to give any “advice” to any individual. (I don’t have a brokers license).

    It is legal for me to say what I am doing, and to say what I think markets are likely to do. (General commentary on economics is still not a licensed act. Besides which, I have a degree in Econ so nominally have some degree of legitimacy).

    So it’s entirely up to you what you do with your money.

    So what I see “in the markets” is pretty much in the posting above. Other markets have “rolled over”. There is often a pattern where ‘weaker’ markets roll over first, and things move up the quality “food chain”. Add to that the market aphorism “Sell in May and Go Away” and the overall pattern is one of “more likely to go down than up” in the next 6 months.

    You say “I’m not a trader”. That means you care more about long term trends than about weekly or even monthly processes. You also express interest in a 10 year timeline and say that you are dealing with ‘retirement money’ and are finally back to even. All that tells me the profile of interest is a long term one and with some emphasis on “security” more than on “rapid gain” from constant trading.

    Most worrisome is that you say both that you got in just before the ’08 drop, and that you felt it coming. Moving directly against what you expect can sometimes be of benefit, but in this case implies a low experience level (though clearly more now, given what has happened).

    All of this adds up to someone who want’s a “Sleep Well” rather than an “Eat Well” approach.

    Generally, for folks in that category, a mix of assets that is more resistant to “whatever comes” is the best approach. Look at a chart of bonds vs stocks and you will see that they often move “in opposition”. So having 1/2 of each dampens much of the risk / volatility. So as a first step, consider just doing a “rebalance” to split your assets into some of each.

    Look at this chart and imagine a line drawn 1/2 way between the SPY line and the TLT line. That’s the average performance of a portfolio made of 1/2 of each. Especially notice the right side where that average line dampens out most of the swings in both products.

    If you are very conservative, and closer to retirement, you can move that to 2/3 bonds and 1/3 stocks for even more dampened range. Also note that TIP line. Doesn’t move much in any direction, though generally does have an upward gain to it. (That’s a 10 year weekly chart).

    So one simple and effective low risk strategy is to do 1/3 each of TLT, SPY, and TIP. Personally, I’d also have a real estate component. That can be had through a variety of ETFs and funds. So as a ‘first step’, just look at your asset allocation between major asset types: Stocks, bonds, real estate, and precious metals. A very common diversification strategy is to have 5% to 10% of a portfolio in gold and silver. That would have helped greatly over the last decade. (Right now, both are a bit more in free fall, so probably best to wait before making a ‘buy’ in metals.)

    So it doesn’t matter much if I think markets are “toppy”, or if you are nervous. First just look at overall asset allocation. If you are 100% in stocks, that’s generally a bad idea for anyone at any time. That’s a “trader” behaviour, not a retirement fund.

    OK, back at the long term chart in that link. Notice that the time to BUY stocks is when the bonds and stocks lines are touching each other? Notice the time to sell is when they are far away from each other? Notice that right now they are far away from each other? So not a time to buy stocks. But a very good time to “rebalance” some overweight in stocks into bonds when they are relatively cheap. (Personally, I’d stay in shorter maturities like 5 year to 10 year just because if / when inflation kicks in, long term bonds can lose a lot of value fast. The 5 year or 10 year bond can just be held to maturity if nothing else. Realize, too, that a bond FUND has no expiration date, so buying individual bonds is different from a bond FUND… )

    Notice, too, that the peak right now is about the same as the prior peak. One could expect a small ‘overshoot’ of that prior value, but one could also expect a lot of folks “bailing” at the point where they are “made whole”. Basically, the prior highs become “resistance”.

    So, for me, I’ve largely gone to cash other than a long term holding in Berkshire Hathaway.

    So, overall, what I “expect of” the market, is that it goes down from here. It could easily have another of those “rounded lobes up”, but I’d expect it to touch the bonds line again first. It’s also much more likely that things will go down for a few years now, than go up, if something bad happens (like the EU having a minor collapse in a major country). There just are not the ‘facts on the ground’ to justify a rosy growing economy scenario. Too much going into taxes and consumption, not enough into productive capacity. Too many folks expecting to retire and not work, not enough young folks to support them all. Something has to give (rather like is happening in Greece today).

    So what I’m doing with my money is more “duck and cover” on the slightest instability and more rapid trading rather than taking on decade time scale risks. If you are “100% in stocks” and just sitting there, that is a generally bad idea for anyone over 40 or so. Generally, the older you are the more ought to go into low risk (low volatility) assets. SHORT TERM bonds vs 30 year bonds or stocks.

    On the ‘flip side’ we have The Fed and the JCB and the ECB all pumping out cash like crazy. Longer term that is likely to lead to an inflationary bubble. It’s highly unlikely that just buying 30 year bonds and sitting on them for 20 years until you retire will ‘work out well’. Getting near zero interest while the value of the currency degrades is a bad idea. So, for my money, anything over about 5 years maturity is a high risk asset. At least until we have the inflation picture figured out. (One simple ‘fix’ is to buy bonds from countries that are not in this financial pickle… there are “global bond fund”.) So with your name of UK(US) there’s a question of “What country”. Spreading some assets between “The Empire” (including Australia, Canada, etc.) and the USA would be a very reasonable risk mitigation strategy.

    So, as a hypothetical, were I a “50 something” who wanted to put my money in a reasonably safe place, and with some growth, for about 20 years; I’d have about 1/3 in stocks, about 1/3 in bonds, and about 1/3 in “other stuff” including REITS and metals (tending to trade that 1/3). I’d split those stock and bond holdings into about 1/3 each in major markets (USA / UK / EU), Emerging Markets (China, Russia, Indonesia, India etc.), and 1/3 in “other” markets and special situations. (Things like PCL that is a stock in a company that holds a lot of timber land and CZZ that owns a chunk of sugar cane land in Brazil about as big as the old West Germany). I’d split the bonds into 1/3 chunks as well. USA, “World”, and “special situations”. (Things like “Strips” which bought at the right time can make a bundle – a trading strategy). But for folks not trading so much, those ‘special’ situations are not as attractive.

    So, in short, it is more important to look at your whole portfolio of assets and get the “balance” right first, before trying to “time the market”. Market timing is for traders… So my saying “the timing to me looks like a drop coming” is talking to traders, not investors. For a long term investor, first get the bond / stock / REIT-etc blend right. If you are an investor long term and 100% in stocks right now, that long term chart is saying “good time to do a rebalance”.

    Hope that is of some help in the decision you need to make.

  5. u.k.(us) says:

    E.M.Smith says:

    18 April 2013 at 10:32 pm
    @u.k.(us):………………
    ===================
    Thanks for the reply, which I knew, if it came, would be well considered.
    I’ve added it to my favorites list for a careful perusal (vs a rash decision).
    I’m aiming for the “sleep well” option, but who isn’t ?
    Thanks again.
    —-
    Btw,
    I access your blog from Anthony’s blog roll, after checking/reading your posts I could return to (Anthony’s site) with a single click of the “back” button on my mouse.
    Now (lately) it takes 5 clicks, WUWT.

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