Nile Floods, Sunspots, Planets

This is an interesting paper from 1985. It correlates sunspot cycles with Nile Flood history with planetary positions. It has a decent record of the Nile Floods in it, at least the more recent ones.

http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/cycles-astronomy/arnold_theory_order.pdf

Cycles Research Institute
http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/

ON THE SPECIAL THEORY OF ORDER
by William Arnold

Originally published in Cycles, December 1985 under Research by Others.
Reproduced with the permission of the Author

Table of Contents
I Abstract
II Introduction, Electro-Magnetic Nature of the Solar Wind
III Analysis of the Primary 22-Year Sunspot Cycle, See Figure 1
IV Analysis of the Nile Flood Cycle, see Figure 1
V Analysis of the Secondary 100-Year Sunspot Cycle and the 100-Year Weather Cycle,
see Figure 1 and Schedule 1
VI Analysis of the Primary 22-Year Sunspot Cycle Nodes, see Schedule 1
VII Theory of a Special Order, see Figures 2, 3, 4 and 5
VIII EMF (electro-magnetic force) Mechanism of a Galactic-Solar-Planetary System
Postulated, see Figure 6
IX Philosophical Considerations on an Ordered Galactic-Solar-Planetary System
X Bibliography

I. ABSTRACT

On the Special Theory of Order postulates Order. It holds that the physical laws of reality, known as “physics” in the realm of Science, extend into deep space. Certainly, they extend from the center of our own Milky Way galaxy to the center of our own Solar-Planetary System, the Sun. A Special Order on a cosmic scale, as demonstrated by this paper, is observed in the positive Correlation between the Sunspot, the Weather and the Planetary Cycles. In a previous paper on Solar-Planetary System Order (in Cycler, “Bode’s Law Explained,” 197)) this author demonstrated Ordinal Proportionality between planetary average distances from the Sun. In this present treatise, when planetary synodic cycles are oriented to the Galactic-Solar Axis (26G°-86°), a positive correlation is shown to exist between these mechanical events and subsequent electromagnetic data observed in the Sunspot cycle and earthly Weather cycles. An emf (electro-magnetic force) mechanism is postulated, and supported by the work of Hale, Nicholson, Ellerman, Joy, Slurzberg and Osterheld, Sheeley, Parker, Van Allen, Chambers, Nelson, Jones, Bray and Loughead, and will account for the modulated cycle effects, supported by the work of Dewey, Shirk, Jarvis, Ludwig, Eddy and Hand. The Special Theory of Order about the mechanism of our Galactic-Solar Planetary System with the planets acting as conductor-inductors within the solar wind field when oriented to the Galactic center now appears more evident, suggesting a Special Order from the Macrocosm down to the micro.

Skipping down into the paper, we have a description of some of the solar changes seen.

In 1915 George Chambers published drawings of the Solar corona of the Solar eclipse at Sunspot maximum of 1882, as the left diagram, and the Solar corona of the Solar eclipse at Sunspot minimum of 1867, as the right diagram.

Chambers observed, “When sunspots are at or near their maximum, the corona has generally been somewhat symmetrical, with synclinal groups of rays making angles of 45 degrees with its general axis …at the epochs of minimum sunspots, the corona shows polar rifts much more widely open, with synclinal zones making larger angles with the axis, and being, therefore, more depressed towards the equatorial regions, in which, moreover, there is usually a very marked extension of coronal matter in the form of elongated streamers reaching to several diameters of the sun.”

It will be postulated by this author that these two very distinct coronal displays are caused by two very distinct planetary synodic events: the former, symmetrical, shape during sunspot maximums appears associated with an expanded solar field whereas the latter, “more depressed towards the equatorial regions,” shape during sunspot minimums appears associated with a compressed solar field (see EMF Mechanism Postulated).

In 1951 John H. Nelson demonstrated the ability to predict sunspots and variations in the Earth’s magnetic field by the relative positions of planets to each other.

There are also some leads on other things to look up:

In 1966 Edward R. Dewey stressed the importance of the 22 year sunspot cycle in “The 22-Year Cycle in Sunspot Numbers, Alternate Cycles Reversed.” Then in 1970, in “Cycle Synchronies,” Dewey demonstrated positive correlations between the sunspot primary cycle and its harmonic multiples and subharmonics with periodic earthly cycles: including, Business Failures, Stock Prices, International War Battles, Floods in the Mississippi Valley, Rainfall in London, Tree Ring Growth, and literally thousands of other cycles whose turnpoints turn in unison with mechanical precision. As early at 1801, William Herschel, also known for his discovery of Uranus, had found comparative cycles in sunspot numbers and the price of wheat.

As the paper has a ‘dedication’:

In Memorium, Edward R. Dewey, 1895-1978
Founder, Foundation For The Study of Cycles

It looks like some of that work ought to be found on that site.

The Nile Flood cycle (see Figure 1, upper portion of chart) was compiled from data by C. S. Jarvis, Cycles, 1964.

Note, Nile historian, Emil Ludwig designated the 1781-1797 and the 1899-1915 periods as “low water” eras of supreme drought throughout Africa. Note, also, that 19 meters seems the normative mean water for a Nile Flood over the past three centuries, Note the major primary drought periods, the 1630s-1710s, 1780s-1830s, 1870s-1920s and 1970s-2010s (history records drought in Africa, 11 years straight, circa 1973-1985).

A Weather Cycle as observed in the Nile Flood cycle, Max rain followed by Min rain, appears discernible with maximums at 1750, 1860, 1950 and minimums at 1670, 1800, 1900 and a minimum at 1990 predicted. The range in meters between a plentiful flood and a drought flood seems minor in the numbers but real in consequence. In the 1900s, 17.17-20.40 meters, a range of 3.23; in the 1100s, 15.32-18.33 meters, a range of 3.01; and in the 600-700s, 16.29-18.50 meters, a range of 2.21. When the flood hits the upper limits it meant a good Nile flood, and good times; while those years it hit only the lower limit meant a bad Nile flood, and bad times. A range of three meters, or 9 feet, without variation, over the centuries (Jarvis, 1964), has beat harmonically with the music of the sunspot cycle to the synodic planetary dance, determining good times and bad rhythmically on a cosmic scale.

We can now ‘test’ that 1990 prediction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahel_drought

Both Burkina Faso, northern Nigeria, southern Niger, far northern Camaroon (near Lake Chad), central Chad, the Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia had struggled with dwindling rain fall since the 1960s. Famines like the 1984–1985 famine in Ethiopia was caused by this from the mid-1970s to the early 1990s, when the rain fall began to return to normal in Ethiopia and the Sudan.

So lots of drought, ending a bit after 1990 when rain started rising again.

http://www.history.ucsb.edu/faculty/Inscrutable%20Nile1.pdf

The great drought in the Nile basin during the 1980s had reduced Lake Nasser to its lowest levels since the completion of the Aswan High Dam in 1971 to end with the Egyptian water crisis of 1988.

So within a year or two. Not bad. Not bad at all…

It then goes on to make some predictions on sunspot numbers that, it looks to me, were not quite right, and then goes into a planetary positions argument. The basic idea being that when the large gas giants, and in particular Uranus, are ‘behind’ the sun from the point of view of the galactic center, they “cut” more magnetic field lines from the sun; whereas when in ‘front’, the lines are more curved, so less ‘cut’. Then (hand waving) that somehow changes the solar activity and thus weather. (Presumed some electrical / magnetic coupling to the sun).

A positive correlation between the Secondary 100-Year Sunspot Cycle, the 100-Year Weather Cycle (the Nile Flood Cycle) and Planetary Synodic Cycles can be demonstrated by analysis of Figures 1, 2, 3> 4 and 5. The data suggests that the smoothed cycle and lower number of sunspots at nodes during the 1648-1714, 1783-1829, 1874-1919 and the 19652009 (predicted) periods corresponds with a lower Nile flood (drought) during the same intervals. Both of these 100-year full-wave sunspot and weather cycles appear to be caused by the Saturn-Uranus Synodic Cycle of planetary conjunctions-oppositions of Figure 2 when oriented to the Galactic-Solar Axis (a line drawn through their respective centers, the galactic center at longitude 266.1314° and 086.1314′).

Significant enhancement of maximums, minimums, timing of turnpoints and nodal periods of both 100-year cycles appears to be caused also by the Jupiter-Uranus Synodic Cycle (Figure 3), the Uranus-Pluto Synodic Cycle (Figure 4) and the Uranus-Neptune Synodic Cycle (Figure 5) when also oriented to the G-S Axis.

I think some of the cycle length estimates may ‘have issues’ and I’d also suggest that there may be an ‘edge effect’ where things can have a stochastic resonance “jitter” in them (so sometimes a 100 year cycle, sometimes 120 with added / removed one solar cycle). Much like sunspot cycles themselves average 11 years, but are almost never exactly 11 years, but cluster on each side of it in two nodes. But that is more speculation on my part than any analysis.

The ‘Nile’ paper points out that during the 1988 drought the Aswan Dam kept folks from too much grief. So it “works” well for fixing the Nile Flood cycles. (One hopes they don’t have a repeat of the 100 year long droughts of some extreme earlier cycles… the lake would run dry…)

It would be interesting to see if during any known historical “bad times” (those ‘Intermediate Periods’ we looked at here.) have any particular orientation of the planets relative to the Galactic core. I also note in passing that the present solar wind has dropped a lot, and that we have had some kind of ‘Grand Alignment’ in December 2012. Now sunspots are down and we’re getting cold and snowy… I have no idea if that ‘alignment’ has the planets in the ‘right’ position per the paper. Looking at this site:
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar it looks like the planets were more or less all over (and I don’t see a galaxy center indication).

So that’s a bit of a “Dig Here!” for folks interested in planet / galaxy positions.

http://www.brighthub.com/science/space/articles/51248.aspx

The truth is that planet alignments come and go all the time but life as we know it, keeps on. Take a look back at the planetary alignment on February 4, 1962. It featured a rough line up of the Earth, Sun, Moon, Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn as well as a total solar eclipse. History shows that the aligning of these planets is fairly common, around every 50 to 60 years. A similar alignment took place on May 5, 2000 and was known as the “Grand Alignment.”

So looks like 2000 was the year. (Didn’t “Global Warming” end just about then? Hmmm….)

It does look like things “out there” track better with our weather “down here” than any CO2 gas levels.

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