Of Old Folks Stories and Cycles

Duplicating a comment I put up at WUWT:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/26/claim-400-ppm-co2-gives-the-weather-personality/#comment-1317293

in response to a “Climate Hustle” story about CBS running a propaganda story on climate with a packed panel… IMHO.

The quote:

Ambulance Chasers.

Expecting a nice payoff.

Nothing more than that.

So many things, so terribly backwards, I hardly know where to start.

OK, I’ll give one “human anecdote” rather than more numbers and all (since the Warmers seem unable to grasp that the numbers are against them…)

The Mother In Law recently died at about 85? Something like that. She grew up in Oklahoma. One of her stories was about a giant tornado that came through when she was about 4 or 5 years old. It picked her up and carried her about 100 yards, then plopped her on the ground. (They were, luckily, only on the edge of it…) It caused horrid destruction for miles, including their home, but they picked themselves back up and carried on. So take 2013-85 and I get about 1928. I do remember her saying it was about the time of the Great Depression too (and don’t forget The Dust Bowl). In her opinion prior to her demise she said that Oklahoma had gotten a whole lot nicer since then. That things were LESS extreme, and that the ’20s and ’30s had been worse.

Her family grew up in California, as, after W.W.II, they moved out here. Anyone remember The Grapes Of Wrath? The vast convoys of “climate refugees” flooding out of Oklahoma and nearby States and into California? Escaping the horrific drought and The Dust Bowl? Where clouds of dust so thick you could not see the sun blew all the way to Chicago and even the East Coast?

How about the Labor Day Hurricane in the Keys?

IMHO, all we have here is normal cyclical weather. It got warmer a little bit in the ’80s and ’90s (after a significant cold turn in the ’60s and ’70s when it snowed in my home town in the Central Valley of California – a place it practically never snows…) and during that warm spell, things quieted down. (Yes, Virginia, the “bad weather” gets damped by hot cycles… when the ‘cold pole’ of the heat engine warms up, the engine slows down…) Now we have simply started a return to the prior cooler status, and that gives a more normal weather pattern.

I’m only 60, so have only barely seen one whole PDO cycle. Yet I have a pretty decent memory. Right now, the winds are more “blustery”. Almost exactly like they were in the ’50s when I was a kid. I’d noticed them become more soft and subdued. In the ’60s and early ’70s there was a big scare on about “Clear Air Turbulence” for aviation (and a fair number of crashes). Then that just kind of went away. The turbulence dropped (on average). At the latest cold turn / solar funk, the atmospheric height shortened, and the “blustery” came back to the winds as it was 60 years ago. At about the same time we had 2 major airplane crashes after a couple of years of not one. Turbulence and a plugged pitot tube in one case.

So from my perspective on climate, all that’s happened is a turn of the cycle back to the cooling 1/2 wave. That has deeper Rossby Waves (as I remember seeing illustrated on my B&W TV in the early ’60s when weathermen did real weather charts on camera, live) and more wind driven weather. I remember when those deep waves moderated (on average) in the late ’60s to early ’70s and the talk was all about that “flat jet stream”. My Mum made a return visit to England then. Her flight (a 707 IIRC) made a record of it. Something like 9 hours from SFO to England. They were able to sit in the Jet Stream the whole way and arrived at a refueling in Iceland or Greenland or some such way early and had to wake up the crew. (It’s a bit hazy as I was a kid then and not that interested in just which country they were in; just that they had to wake up some guy to get gas a few hours early).

So I’ve seen, and observed, this whole cycle. Not a single thing is different now, in terms of hurricanes, tornadoes, drought, wind, storms. Nothing. Yes, we had a different pattern for a couple of decades in the ’60s and ’70s cold. I asked the local “old folks” about it. They thought back and said “no, not new… like it was back in…” and cited some date in the late 1800s to early 1900s. They were in their 70s and 80s and that was ’63 or so. So they were remembering “when they were my age” in the late 1800s.

And that was one of my very first introductions to the cyclical nature of weather. We had a restaurant in a farm town with folks from many parts of the country who had moved to California. They liked talking to “the kids”. I listened. What I learned was that the “Old Folks” had seen it all before. And that they had seen a whole cycle. That the younger folks had only seen parts of cycles, so thought this was “new” or “different”. But it isn’t.

I asked my Dad about heat during the “hot times”. He pointed out that nothing came close to the 1930s. IMHO, still doesn’t. Almost, but not quite. Similarly I asked my wife’s Dad. He, too, said it was nice weather now, not as cold as before, but not as hot as the ’30s; and that this was some of the best weather of his lifetime. Not too cold or too hot. (He passed away about a decade back – so we’ve not warmed since as it was about 5 years into the ‘flat not warming’ tail).

All this, IMHO, simply points out that these folks on the TV are not able to see beyond their own short life spans, were not paying attention to The Old Folks when they were kids; and now have an ambulance to chase.

FWIW, we are now in the start of a “cold cycle”. The poles are cooling (that’s where the net heat leaves) and that cools the “cold pole” of the heat engine. The oceans hold a lot of heat, so for the next decade or so it will be leaving. That will involve a lot of water evaporation from the oceans (falling as rain and snow as in the UK and Australia recently) as the oceans cool. In about 20 years the oceans will have cooled and overall things will be colder and snowy. Then the tendency to storms will fade and the “Loopy Jet Stream” will once again flatten. Then we will take another 1/2 cycle of the next 30 years after that as things “warm” again. It’s 30 years of cooling, then 30 years of warming, then 30 years of cooling again… Folks over 60 have seen it (though some didn’t pay attention) and the “Climate Scientists” are trying to exploit it for gain and influence (or are dupes).

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2013/01/24/why-weather-has-a-60-year-lunar-beat/

For them to attempt to fear monger like that is just offensive.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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12 Responses to Of Old Folks Stories and Cycles

  1. Gail Combs says:

    Yes, weather cycles, and the exploiting of them is not only offensive but a low carbon way of life KILLS. Just ask the folks in the UK where they are finally waking up and kicking the bums out.

  2. omanuel says:

    I agree with you. Fear mongering is offensive, especially when the promoters believe their own misunderstandings and adopt a “holier than thou” attitude toward those who doubt the validity of their tales.

    I am approaching 77 years of life, and I remember news stories in Time and Newsweek in 1974-75 about an approaching Ice Age. Oliver

  3. Ian W says:

    The entire panel was concerned that the trough is about to be pulled back. So they have to keep talking as if the figures agree with them and try to tell everyone that weather equals climate.

    I have a suspicion that the entire choreographed approach was based on an assumption that the warming would continue for another 5 – 10 years before the cycle started down again. Climategate – thank you FOIA – screwed what would have been a big step toward global governance and global ‘taxation’ by carbon credits on a ‘carbon market’. Well Mother Nature worked with FOIA and it is now very difficult to convince people in Europe that there is any threat. All the signs are that the more far sighted warmists are executing a careful volte face the last ones still standing will not have such a comfortable time.

  4. John Robertson says:

    I think the scam, (of God acting as) the weather will get you for your sins unless you pay me to intercede, is as old as language.
    We had folklore to inoculate our children with.
    Now that the artists are reduced to blaming weather upon co2 emissions of mankind they are rapidly becoming objects of ridicule amongst the less involved public.
    No one needs to be a scientist to recognize the lunacy of claiming storms are unusual and new, or the idiocy of claiming modern storms are because of co2, but past storms were not.
    Imagine a return to the conditions that sank the Spanish treasure fleets.
    The denial of natural cycles by the IPCC team is all most farmers,loggers and fishermen need to see for them to start snickering about government experts again.
    Hopefully we are going to enjoy the spectacle of the team turning on each other more each day.

  5. adolfogiurfa says:

    Since the temperatures are not following the weather patterns based on CO2 emissions, there must be other factors that are influencing climate change. I believe that the interaction of cosmic rays with aerosols are the main candidates. The cooling was associated with an increase in volcanic activity, a primary source of aerosols in the atmosphere and a weak sun allows the increase of cosmic rays, this combination that in the near future you will come to a deep solar minimum could bring a significant global cooling .
    http://daltonsminima.altervista.org

  6. adolfogiurfa says:

    Usually journalists and media have less memory than a mosquito, nowadays they are incapable of remembering issues beyond 12 hours.

  7. tckev says:

    As the IPCC define period for climate is 30 years, the larger time period cycles tend to get overlooked, especially by the press who have over the years come to view a lot of short term prognostication by ‘climate scientist’ as gospel.
    I note that some papers that I read recently have reference to 60 to 80 year cycles and other cycle in the natural climate variability. Listed below are just some but there are many others.

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL023429/abstract
    Variable solar irradiance as a plausible agent for multidecadal variations in the Arctic-wide surface air temperature record of the past 130 years
    Willie W.-H. Soon

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-3224.1
    Variability of the Intermediate Atlantic Water of the Arctic Ocean over the Last 100 Years
    I. V. Polyakov,

    Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2485 years and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11434-011-4713-7
    Yu Liu, QiuFang Cai, HuiMing Song, ZhiSheng An, Hans W. Linderholm

    Other cycles
    Milankovitch
    http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Reference_Docs/Milankovitch_Cycles.pdf

  8. Gail Combs says:

    …I am approaching 77 years of life, and I remember news stories in Time and Newsweek in 1974-75 about an approaching Ice Age.
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    Oliver, at least those stories had some validity. We still do not know if “…Insolation will remain at this level slightly above the glacial inception for the next 4,000 years…” and this will be a double precession cycle or “…Comparison [of the Holocene] with MIS 19c, a close astronomical analogue characterized by an equally weak summer insolation minimum (474Wm−2) and a smaller overall decrease from maximum summer solstice insolation values, suggests that glacial inception is possible despite the subdued insolation forcing…”.

    What we do know is the insolation is low and will be in the “Danger zone” and this could mean the climate will become unstable as the heat stored in the oceans is dissipated.

    Actually the Holocene has been a very temperature stable interglacial compared to the others. Lets hope it remains that way.

  9. Otter says:

    The ‘Cold pole’ of the climate engine? Am I right to think Antarctica?

  10. E.M.Smith says:

    @Otter:

    It changes each season. It is both the Arctic and the Antarctic, but during summer at one, it is at the other… Spring and fall it is both.

    The very cold very fast air flow at the night pole (where night can run for months) is called the Night Jet.

  11. philjourdan says:

    While your M-I-L was born in about 28, from her accounts, the tornado hit about 33 (since she was 4 or 5). Looks like the 30s were not a nice time for anyone weatherwise.

    It is great to be alive today!

  12. Gail Combs says:

    philjourdan says: …. Looks like the 30s were not a nice time for anyone weatherwise.
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    They were pretty miserable. – Pictures from the Dust Bowl Era

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