Vukcevic Geomagnetc Weather Correlation – Tidal?

Over on WUWT, Vukcevic had commented in one of the threads on his (frequent) notice that earth Geomagnetic changes correlate with weather changes.

This is a short posting, mostly to just capture my thoughts on it here.

I have been frequently of the mind that Lunar / Tidal forces drive much of the weather cycles. In pondering “Why the correlation with Geomagnetism?”, it occurred to me that it might be a tidal influence as well. There are tidal effects in the crust, so why not in the liquid part of the core where the magnetic field is generated?

My comment at WUWT

E.M.Smith says:
October 4, 2013 at 10:48 pm

@Vukcevic:

On another thread (several, but one recently) you have pointed out the correlation between geomagnetic variation and weather changes. I’ve often wondered “How?”….

A speculation:

I’ve seen many correlations between lunar / tidal effects and weather cycles. Might not tides in the molten earth where the magnetic field is generated cause variations in the geomagnetic field?

You might want to do a correlation comparison of geomagnetic data with tide data and lunar tidal forces and see if there’s a match.

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2013/01/24/why-weather-has-a-60-year-lunar-beat/

http://www.pnas.org/content/97/8/3814.full does a great job of laying out the case for lunar tidal driving of ocean currents / weather. (peer reviewed paper too…)

referenced in:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/11/03/lunar-resonance-and-taurid-storms/

@Leif:

You continue to speak to TSI as relatively invariant, but make no mention of the drop in UV that happens as the sun goes quiet. It looks like a redistribution of WHERE the components of TSI end up as they shift more “red-ward” matters to how the climate system reacts.

Add in synchronous tidal effects from lunar activities (all kept coordinated via orbital resonance effects) and “things add up”. Yet no one thing will be demonstrably the whole thing.

It resolves the “sun did it with planet cycles” vs “TSI is not enough” via “the Earth does it as the spectrum shifts while the moon stirs the oceans in sync with the planet orbits” and can end some of the “does so / does not” bickering…

Endlessly saying “TSI doesn’t change enough” is not very enlightening. Rather like saying “The fall didn’t kill him” when it was the sudden stop at the end… The two are very different, but driven by the same initial events… It would be more helpful to understanding to cast a broader net. IMHO.

Per “What happened in 1878?”, it looks to my eye like it is rather near point “b” in this graph:

http://www.pnas.org/content/97/8/3814/F1.expansion.html

from the above paper. One of the marked “cold maximum” points. 1974 marked as “C” being another one (as is 1787 “B”). FWIW, point “c” in about 2040 is also so marked.

“A time-series plot of Wood’s values of γ (Fig. 1) reveals a complex cyclic pattern. On the decadal time-scale the most important periodicity is the Saros cycle, seen as sequences of events, spaced 18.03 years apart. Prominent sequences are made obvious in the plot by connected line-segments that form a series of overlapping arcs. The maxima, labeled A, B, C, D, of the most prominent sequences, all at full moon, are spaced about 180 years apart. The maxima, labeled a, b, c, of the next most prominent sequences, all at new moon, are also spaced about 180 years apart. The two sets of maxima together produce strong tidal forcing at approximately 90-year intervals. ”

So it looks to me like it was an inflection point in the lunar / tidal forces changing how the oceans flow and mix cold water to the surface. At a new moon, being a lower case letter, so we ought to expect something similar to happen in about 2040 (after a long period of cooling that started in about 2000 (not labeled in the graph, but at the bottom of a dark “V” shaped of the plotted lines, at the ‘hot inflection’ point). 1920-30 is also near the bottom of one of those dark hot “V”s…

These changes in cold ocean mixing to the surface then drive changes in ENSO / La Nina / El Nino (vis Tisdale) that lead to all the meridional / zonal changes and shifts of cloud bands pointed out by Stephen Wilde and all the rest.

It is a “natural ocean cycle” but driven by a lunar metronome… that is itself moving in time to a planetary orchestra via orbital resonance. (That also stirs the sun and causes it to change output… but not via TSI, via color shifts; that might only correlate, or might be a partial additive driver along with GCR et. al.) It all beats together, so correlation can not be used to prove causality nor can “not enough” be used to disprove partial causality in a chorus of synchronized actions. It will be very hard to prove how much each part matters.

Personally, I think the lunar / tidal is most direct (and likely tides in the spinning interior of the Earth explains the magnetic correlation) and the sun just a ‘bit player’, but with some impact. Then much of the rest being “elaboration” of the basic changes. But that, too, is speculation.

But: that 1878 is near to on top of point “b” on the graph is not speculation.
It’s a fact.

The comment by Vukcevic is here:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/02/ipcc-climate-a-product-of-lies-damn-lies-and-statistics-built-on-inadequate-data/#comment-1434014

vukcevic says:
October 2, 2013 at 12:45 pm

Hi
If the models are the best of the science can produce (and I do accept that the model constructors are experts in the numerical modelling, but may not be experts in much else) and their product does not work, perhaps what some call ‘pseudo science’ should be looked into.
For some years now, I have looked into changes of the Earth’s magnetic field and noticed easily observed ‘apparent correlation’ with the temperature records.
For time being the science indicates that the only way these changes may make an impact is through the cosmic rays nucleation process, but it doesn’t support the Svensmark’s hypothesis since the Earth’s and solar field appear to have negative ‘correlation’:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC9.htm
There are other physical processes that come into play but sadly, as the current science indicates none has sufficient power available to move the oceanic temperatures.
However, the geomagnetic field as measured on the surface is often indication what is happening further down in the Earth’s interior.
Changes in the interior are also reflected on the surface through the tectonic activity, which contains enough energy to affect efficiency of the ocean currents, the main transporters of energy from the equatorial regions pole-wards. .
Thus next step was to look at the tectonic records for the last 100+ years (relatively good records available) in the areas of the three climate indices (AMO, PDO & ENSO).
An odd ‘oscillation’ was noted in the North Atlantic, but when these events were integrated over period of time ( k ) the picture became far more encouraging.
The process was repeated for the areas of the North and Equatorial Pacific and results are presented here:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/APS.htm
As it can be clearly seen the ‘forcing formula’ is the same one in all three cases. The k factor was determined by trial and error, it has same value for both Pacific indices, but it is less effective in the Atlantic than in the Pacific, Pacific being more tectonically active.
Finally, it is intriguing that a single (albeit regional) variable can within reason model past 100+ years temperature records, but for the future, ‘the time will tell’.
Note: if anyone is keen to know tectonic data, they are available on the web but it takes time and effort to collate, so do not expect readily made handout.
(the above is an exception, normally do not do long posts)

Vukcevic on Geomagnetic Weather Correlation

Vukcevic on Geomagnetic Weather Correlation

I don’t have a lot of analysis, as I’m still slammed on time (but getting better! ;-)

Then again, this posting harkens back to how this blog started. As a place where I preserved some of my comments and interactions where they were easier to find.

A quick check of the topic shows some interesting places to “dig here”:

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=tide+geomagnetic+correlation

I’m particularly fond of the one that says tree growth correlates… Shades of Mann! ;-)

Stratospheric warmings and the geomagnetic lunar tide: 1958 …
The correlation between the amplitude of the geomagnetic lunar tide at an equatorial station, Addis Ababa, and the lower stratospheric parameters from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research …
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012JA017514/abstract More from onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Stratospheric warmings and the geomagnetic lunar tide: 1958-2007
The correlation between the amplitude of the geomagnetic lunar tide at an equatorial station … The results suggest that variability of the geomagnetic lunar tide during the northern winter is closely linked with dynamical changes in the lower stratospheric parameters associated with …
agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2012JA017514.shtml More from agu.org

Benvenuto su CNR Solar – CNR Solar
The same does not hold for geomagnetic tides. The significant correlation obtained between geomagnetic tides and large scale earthquakes Is thus attributed to a magnetostrictive effect caused by the external geomagnetic fields and their variations …
eprints.bice.rm.cnr.it/264/ More from eprints.bice.rm.cnr.it

[PDF] Possible Cause-Effect Relationships Between Vrancea (Romania …
A possible correlation between Vrancea subcrustal … phenomena of tides, geomagnetic jerks and Chandler nutation, and Vrancea sub-crustal seismic activity is inferred in this paper, and some possible explanations for such relationships are given.
geo.edu.ro/sgr/mod/downloads/PDF/Enescu-NatHas-1999.pdf More from geo.edu.ro

Tree-stem diameter fluctuates with the lunar tides and …
Tree-stem diameter fluctuates with the lunar tides and perhaps with geomagnetic activity.
Barlow PW, Mikulecký M Sr, … statistical cross-correlation and cross-spectral analysis, … the geomagnetic Thule index showed a weak but reciprocal relationship with stem diameter variation, …
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20393759 More from ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

[PDF] The harmonic and spectral analysis of the geomagnetic field …
298 The harmonic and spectral analysis of the geomagnetic field and correlation of its components with earthquake sources in the Northern Tien Shan
kscnet.ru/ivs/slsecret/jkasp_2011/abstr/abs135.pdf More from kscnet.ru

[PDF] Day-to-day variation of geomagnetic H field and equatorial …
Day-to-day variation of geomagnetic H field and equatorial ring current M.E.James, … the lunar and solar tides as the cause of the air…correlation coefficients of more than 0.9, suggesting
igu.in/12-2/2james.pdf More from igu.in

[PDF] Life Science Journal 2013;10(7s) http://www.lifesciencesite
correlation between ionosphere and specifications of the layered shape of the plasma movements .In this study the … such as the solar tide and geomagnetic storms. The lunar tide is of considerable interest due to the fact that the forcing
lifesciencesite.com/lsj/life1007s/004_15985life1007s_19_22.pdf More from lifesciencesite.com

Earthquakes, Moon phase and Solar flares – Scribd
measured the correlation between the Earth tide and earthquake occurrence in and around the focal regions of these … large changes in conductivity and electric field variations are global. The IMF and the geomagnetic field (GMF) interact, producing a twelve-month wave with a maximum at …
scribd.com/doc/51355807/Earthquakes-Moon-phase-and… More from scribd.com

But this will have to be left as more of a ‘dig here’ for the rest of you to explore. I’ve got a couple of more things I’m hoping to get posted and it’s already 3 am…

The first ‘toe dip’ into the search, though, sure seems to give reason to think a whole lot of things are being moved together, and likely by a lunar metronome… I will quote a bit from the second link, though:

Key Points

Comparison between stratospheric parameters and the geomagnetic lunar tide
Analysis of long-term data for 1958-2007
Significant changes in the geomagnetic lunar tide during SSWs

Authors:

Yosuke Yamazaki

Arthur D. Richmond

Kiyohumi Yumoto

A quantitative comparison of the geomagnetic lunar tide and lower stratospheric parameters (zonal mean air temperature T and zonal mean zonal wind U ) is carried out for the period 1958-2007. The correlation between the amplitude of the geomagnetic lunar tide at an equatorial station, Addis Ababa, and the lower stratospheric parameters from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis is examined. It is found that the lunar tidal amplitude is positively and negatively correlated with the stratospheric T and U , respectively, in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during December and January. The results suggest that variability of the geomagnetic lunar tide during the northern winter is closely linked with dynamical changes in the lower stratospheric parameters associated with stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs).

So we have, at minimum, a connection to Sudden Stratospheric Warming events.

For a chart of lunar tidal cycles see the paper at:

http://www.pnas.org/content/97/8/3814.full where it contains this image. Lower case letters mark new moon extreme tidal mixing while capital letters mark full moon extreme tidal mixing. The low V areas between them have minimal tidal mixing, so are warm times (as the cold water is left deep).

Lunar Tidal Mixing force.  Letters on top of humps are high tidal mixing cool periods.

Lunar Tidal Mixing force. Letters on top of humps are high tidal mixing cool periods.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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17 Responses to Vukcevic Geomagnetc Weather Correlation – Tidal?

  1. cartoonmick says:

    In regard to climate change scientists and governments, the problem is, those with expertise have no power, and those with power have no expertise.

    Greed will always blind, and governments are easily swayed by blind power.

    Governments are voted in by the people to govern “for” the people, not “for” big business.

    This cartoon refers; http://cartoonmick.wordpress.com/editorial-political/#jp-carousel-775

    Cheers

    Mick

  2. Wayne Job says:

    High EM I left a post over at WUWT for you came here and you are blogging about the same stuff. Leif tends to denigrate all who think differently to him, if new thought is discouraged nothing advances. He gives Vuc a lot of stick politely tries to press his case. Vuc is doing good stuff.

    Why I am calling in is to ask wether you have seen the stuff that the Russians have been doing on the International Space Station. Analysing and measuring the sun they have a different take on the sun to Leif. Habibullo.I. Abdussamatov is the chief I think good stuff that may be of interest.

  3. E.M.Smith says:

    I met Habibullo at his presentation in Chicago. I think he has it right. Not followed the Space Station work ‘real time’, just waiting for it to become news. He said they were going to measure solar diameter changes, IIRC.

  4. I’m have found through my research at http://www.global-warming-and-the-climate.com/enso-and-tidal-forcing.htm that ENSO is driven by a combination from changes in tidal forcing, from variations in the Ap and Kp indexes, from variations in solar winds and from the inertia of the sea currents in the tropics. There are probably influences also from UV variations, but because I lack UV data over the time period my ANN covers I can’t attribute changes in the ENSO from that.
    I’m now at the stage apart from a small bug in my program that I can now put together a PowerPoint presentation which I can use to demonstrate my findings to key contacts that I have.

  5. E.M.Smith says:

    @Per Strandberg:

    Thanks for the notice on what you have accomplished. It’s one of the areas that I thought needed work (but knew I could never get to it). You identify the same things from the ENSO drivers side that I speculate are the drivers from the celestial mechanics / correlation side. Tides (via that Lunar / Tidal connection), solar ( I talk about UV, but it correlates directly with the Ap / Kp indexes as an inactive sun indicator) and solar wind (GCR issue). I’ve got a posting up here somewhere where I speculate about ocean currents and Drake Passage effects being important; so as the lunar / tidal effect pulls more water to or away from the S. Pole, we get more or less cold water shot up the spine of S. America and into the Pacific. That “ocean inertia”. So I think we are both seeing the same processes, just from different ends.

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/12/22/drakes-passage/

    Yours from weather and ENSO back to sun and tides. Mine from solar and lunar (a bit back into planetary orbital resonance) forward into tides and UV / GCR atmospheric height changes. With Bob Tisdale showing the long term pattern of weather driven by long term pattern of El Nino / La Nina and with Stephen Wilde elaborating the translation of those basic drivers into changes of jet stream, clouds (and through them precipitation) and local weather and temperature shifts.

    I’m pretty sure if all those were stitched together (each having more detail in their center focus) the result would be a pretty darned complete end-to-end “model” of what really happens.

    I hope to have time to read your link later this afternoon. (It is “laundry day” and I’m trying to overlap laundry with some reading ;-)

    FWIW, Habibullo IMHO fills in “how the sun does it” on the solar changes. He has found a pattern of subtle changes in solar diameter that correlate with the changes in solar output. IMHO it is the orbital mechanics to solar dynamics link. Planetary induced tidal effects showing up in changes of solar diameter that then translate on to those changes in Ap / Kp / UV / etc. We’re getting very close to a “connect the dots” moment from celestial mechanics through solar changes to earth changes of currents and atmosphere and then weather patterns over decades.

  6. R. de Haan says:

    This should put some cracks in Leif’s TSI fortress. I am following the developments with great interest and really think this is a plausible theory. This is what science is all about.

    I am looking forward to the expected publications. Thanks for this post.

    In the mean time mother nature further continues to embarrass the AGW crowd.
    Norwegian wheat production impacted by climate change…..
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/05/norways-wheat-production-impacted-by-climate-change/#more-95191

  7. lunar influences are the most ignored, shouldn’t be

  8. omanuel says:

    Please explain Vukcevic’s statement: “the Earth’s and solar field appear to have negative ‘correlation’. “

    The bottom graph shows a positive correlation between the Artic Geomagnetic Field and Sunspots.

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC9.htm

    Sunspots are magnetic fields from the solar core that penetrate the photosphere.

  9. Sera says:

    @ Omanuel:

    I thought that sunspots were magnetic fields in the photosphere, caused by the paramagnetic iron in the photosphere, powered by the electromagnetic energy of the core (white dwarf).

  10. vukcevic says:

    Hi E.M.

    Thanks. I am currently busy with number of commitments so not much time for more detailed elaboration,

    Omanuel:

    The bottom graph shows a positive correlation between the Artic Geomagnetic Field and Sunspots.
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC9.htm
    Note
    – top graphs are marked with Geomagnetic field ‘negative gradient’
    – bottom graph; Arctic geomagnetic field scale in micro Tesla is at the right hand side (green bold numbers) with the arrow pointing to the ascending values direction.

  11. vukcevic says:

    Hi E.M.

    Thanks. I am currently busy with number of commitments so not much time for more detailed elaboration,

    Omanuel:

    The bottom graph shows a positive correlation between the Artic Geomagnetic Field and Sunspots.
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC9.htm

    Note
    – top graphs are marked with Geomagnetic field ‘negative gradient’
    – bottom graph; Arctic geomagnetic field scale in micro Tesla is at the right hand side (green bold numbers) with the arrow pointing to the ascending values direction.
    Around 1650 the SSN was near zero, the GMF just below 60 microT.
    Around 2000 the SSN >100, the GMF around 52 microT.

  12. omanuel says:

    Sera & Vukcevic

    Earth cooled during the Maunder Minimum, when sunspots were few.

    Sunspots are produced when deep-seated magnetic fields protrude through the photosphere. Those deep seated magnetic fields have a long term memory that seems to exclude production in the turbulent photosphere. This was discussed in our 2001 or 2002 paper on the Journal of Fusion Energy.

    The paper references evidence that photospheres of stars become iron-rich when the number of sunspots are few.

    Oliver

  13. omanuel says:

    “Super-fluidity in the solar interior:
    Implications for solar eruptions and climate”, Journal of Fusion Energy 21, 193-198 (2002). http://www.springerlink.com/content/r2352635vv166363/ http://www.omatumr.com/abstracts2003/jfe-superfluidity.pdf

  14. DocMartyn says:

    The levels of 14C generated in the upper atmosphere are not zero order, so the dendrochronologists and marine deposits have to use complex curves;

    The changes are thought to be due to changes in the sun magnetic fields and also the Earths magnetic field.
    This plot has nothing to do with global temperate at all

  15. E.M.Smith says:

    @DocMartyn:

    Interesting graphs. There’s a story in there, with C14 rising from the Maunder to near present. I ought to sink time into chasing it, but can’t at the moment. It does look like it says that there is a long term ramp up in solar activity…

    @OManuel:

    Interesting stuff… Didn’t know the sun was a superfluid. Has interesting implications.

    @Stefanthedenier:

    I fully agree!

    @R. de Haan:

    One can only hope. I think there’s something here, but not sure how to ‘flesh it out’… yet…

  16. Here is a link to the latest paper by the indefatigable Nicola Scafetta:
    http://people.duke.edu/~ns2002/pdf/EARTH_1890.pdf

    Nicola commented that “People cannot ignore these things forever”!

  17. Pingback: Lunar Months, Tides; for Vukcevic | Musings from the Chiefio

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