Over on WUWT, Vukcevic had commented in one of the threads on his (frequent) notice that earth Geomagnetic changes correlate with weather changes.
This is a short posting, mostly to just capture my thoughts on it here.
I have been frequently of the mind that Lunar / Tidal forces drive much of the weather cycles. In pondering “Why the correlation with Geomagnetism?”, it occurred to me that it might be a tidal influence as well. There are tidal effects in the crust, so why not in the liquid part of the core where the magnetic field is generated?
October 4, 2013 at 10:48 pm
On another thread (several, but one recently) you have pointed out the correlation between geomagnetic variation and weather changes. I’ve often wondered “How?”….
I’ve seen many correlations between lunar / tidal effects and weather cycles. Might not tides in the molten earth where the magnetic field is generated cause variations in the geomagnetic field?
You might want to do a correlation comparison of geomagnetic data with tide data and lunar tidal forces and see if there’s a match.
http://www.pnas.org/content/97/8/3814.full does a great job of laying out the case for lunar tidal driving of ocean currents / weather. (peer reviewed paper too…)
You continue to speak to TSI as relatively invariant, but make no mention of the drop in UV that happens as the sun goes quiet. It looks like a redistribution of WHERE the components of TSI end up as they shift more “red-ward” matters to how the climate system reacts.
Add in synchronous tidal effects from lunar activities (all kept coordinated via orbital resonance effects) and “things add up”. Yet no one thing will be demonstrably the whole thing.
It resolves the “sun did it with planet cycles” vs “TSI is not enough” via “the Earth does it as the spectrum shifts while the moon stirs the oceans in sync with the planet orbits” and can end some of the “does so / does not” bickering…
Endlessly saying “TSI doesn’t change enough” is not very enlightening. Rather like saying “The fall didn’t kill him” when it was the sudden stop at the end… The two are very different, but driven by the same initial events… It would be more helpful to understanding to cast a broader net. IMHO.
Per “What happened in 1878?”, it looks to my eye like it is rather near point “b” in this graph:
from the above paper. One of the marked “cold maximum” points. 1974 marked as “C” being another one (as is 1787 “B”). FWIW, point “c” in about 2040 is also so marked.
“A time-series plot of Wood’s values of γ (Fig. 1) reveals a complex cyclic pattern. On the decadal time-scale the most important periodicity is the Saros cycle, seen as sequences of events, spaced 18.03 years apart. Prominent sequences are made obvious in the plot by connected line-segments that form a series of overlapping arcs. The maxima, labeled A, B, C, D, of the most prominent sequences, all at full moon, are spaced about 180 years apart. The maxima, labeled a, b, c, of the next most prominent sequences, all at new moon, are also spaced about 180 years apart. The two sets of maxima together produce strong tidal forcing at approximately 90-year intervals. ”
So it looks to me like it was an inflection point in the lunar / tidal forces changing how the oceans flow and mix cold water to the surface. At a new moon, being a lower case letter, so we ought to expect something similar to happen in about 2040 (after a long period of cooling that started in about 2000 (not labeled in the graph, but at the bottom of a dark “V” shaped of the plotted lines, at the ‘hot inflection’ point). 1920-30 is also near the bottom of one of those dark hot “V”s…
These changes in cold ocean mixing to the surface then drive changes in ENSO / La Nina / El Nino (vis Tisdale) that lead to all the meridional / zonal changes and shifts of cloud bands pointed out by Stephen Wilde and all the rest.
It is a “natural ocean cycle” but driven by a lunar metronome… that is itself moving in time to a planetary orchestra via orbital resonance. (That also stirs the sun and causes it to change output… but not via TSI, via color shifts; that might only correlate, or might be a partial additive driver along with GCR et. al.) It all beats together, so correlation can not be used to prove causality nor can “not enough” be used to disprove partial causality in a chorus of synchronized actions. It will be very hard to prove how much each part matters.
Personally, I think the lunar / tidal is most direct (and likely tides in the spinning interior of the Earth explains the magnetic correlation) and the sun just a ‘bit player’, but with some impact. Then much of the rest being “elaboration” of the basic changes. But that, too, is speculation.
But: that 1878 is near to on top of point “b” on the graph is not speculation.
It’s a fact.
The comment by Vukcevic is here:
October 2, 2013 at 12:45 pm
If the models are the best of the science can produce (and I do accept that the model constructors are experts in the numerical modelling, but may not be experts in much else) and their product does not work, perhaps what some call ‘pseudo science’ should be looked into.
For some years now, I have looked into changes of the Earth’s magnetic field and noticed easily observed ‘apparent correlation’ with the temperature records.
For time being the science indicates that the only way these changes may make an impact is through the cosmic rays nucleation process, but it doesn’t support the Svensmark’s hypothesis since the Earth’s and solar field appear to have negative ‘correlation’:
There are other physical processes that come into play but sadly, as the current science indicates none has sufficient power available to move the oceanic temperatures.
However, the geomagnetic field as measured on the surface is often indication what is happening further down in the Earth’s interior.
Changes in the interior are also reflected on the surface through the tectonic activity, which contains enough energy to affect efficiency of the ocean currents, the main transporters of energy from the equatorial regions pole-wards. .
Thus next step was to look at the tectonic records for the last 100+ years (relatively good records available) in the areas of the three climate indices (AMO, PDO & ENSO).
An odd ‘oscillation’ was noted in the North Atlantic, but when these events were integrated over period of time ( k ) the picture became far more encouraging.
The process was repeated for the areas of the North and Equatorial Pacific and results are presented here:
As it can be clearly seen the ‘forcing formula’ is the same one in all three cases. The k factor was determined by trial and error, it has same value for both Pacific indices, but it is less effective in the Atlantic than in the Pacific, Pacific being more tectonically active.
Finally, it is intriguing that a single (albeit regional) variable can within reason model past 100+ years temperature records, but for the future, ‘the time will tell’.
Note: if anyone is keen to know tectonic data, they are available on the web but it takes time and effort to collate, so do not expect readily made handout.
(the above is an exception, normally do not do long posts)
I don’t have a lot of analysis, as I’m still slammed on time (but getting better! ;-)
Then again, this posting harkens back to how this blog started. As a place where I preserved some of my comments and interactions where they were easier to find.
A quick check of the topic shows some interesting places to “dig here”:
I’m particularly fond of the one that says tree growth correlates… Shades of Mann! ;-)
Stratospheric warmings and the geomagnetic lunar tide: 1958 …
The correlation between the amplitude of the geomagnetic lunar tide at an equatorial station, Addis Ababa, and the lower stratospheric parameters from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research …
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012JA017514/abstract More from onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Stratospheric warmings and the geomagnetic lunar tide: 1958-2007
The correlation between the amplitude of the geomagnetic lunar tide at an equatorial station … The results suggest that variability of the geomagnetic lunar tide during the northern winter is closely linked with dynamical changes in the lower stratospheric parameters associated with …
agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2012JA017514.shtml More from agu.org
Benvenuto su CNR Solar – CNR Solar
The same does not hold for geomagnetic tides. The significant correlation obtained between geomagnetic tides and large scale earthquakes Is thus attributed to a magnetostrictive effect caused by the external geomagnetic fields and their variations …
eprints.bice.rm.cnr.it/264/ More from eprints.bice.rm.cnr.it
[PDF] Possible Cause-Effect Relationships Between Vrancea (Romania …
A possible correlation between Vrancea subcrustal … phenomena of tides, geomagnetic jerks and Chandler nutation, and Vrancea sub-crustal seismic activity is inferred in this paper, and some possible explanations for such relationships are given.
geo.edu.ro/sgr/mod/downloads/PDF/Enescu-NatHas-1999.pdf More from geo.edu.ro
Tree-stem diameter fluctuates with the lunar tides and …
Tree-stem diameter fluctuates with the lunar tides and perhaps with geomagnetic activity. Barlow PW, Mikulecký M Sr, … statistical cross-correlation and cross-spectral analysis, … the geomagnetic Thule index showed a weak but reciprocal relationship with stem diameter variation, …
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20393759 More from ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
[PDF] The harmonic and spectral analysis of the geomagnetic field …
298 The harmonic and spectral analysis of the geomagnetic field and correlation of its components with earthquake sources in the Northern Tien Shan
kscnet.ru/ivs/slsecret/jkasp_2011/abstr/abs135.pdf More from kscnet.ru
[PDF] Day-to-day variation of geomagnetic H field and equatorial …
Day-to-day variation of geomagnetic H field and equatorial ring current M.E.James, … the lunar and solar tides as the cause of the air…correlation coefficients of more than 0.9, suggesting
igu.in/12-2/2james.pdf More from igu.in
[PDF] Life Science Journal 2013;10(7s) http://www.lifesciencesite
correlation between ionosphere and specifications of the layered shape of the plasma movements .In this study the … such as the solar tide and geomagnetic storms. The lunar tide is of considerable interest due to the fact that the forcing
lifesciencesite.com/lsj/life1007s/004_15985life1007s_19_22.pdf More from lifesciencesite.com
Earthquakes, Moon phase and Solar flares – Scribd
measured the correlation between the Earth tide and earthquake occurrence in and around the focal regions of these … large changes in conductivity and electric field variations are global. The IMF and the geomagnetic field (GMF) interact, producing a twelve-month wave with a maximum at …
scribd.com/doc/51355807/Earthquakes-Moon-phase-and… More from scribd.com
But this will have to be left as more of a ‘dig here’ for the rest of you to explore. I’ve got a couple of more things I’m hoping to get posted and it’s already 3 am…
The first ‘toe dip’ into the search, though, sure seems to give reason to think a whole lot of things are being moved together, and likely by a lunar metronome… I will quote a bit from the second link, though:
Comparison between stratospheric parameters and the geomagnetic lunar tide
Analysis of long-term data for 1958-2007
Significant changes in the geomagnetic lunar tide during SSWs
Arthur D. Richmond
A quantitative comparison of the geomagnetic lunar tide and lower stratospheric parameters (zonal mean air temperature T and zonal mean zonal wind U ) is carried out for the period 1958-2007. The correlation between the amplitude of the geomagnetic lunar tide at an equatorial station, Addis Ababa, and the lower stratospheric parameters from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis is examined. It is found that the lunar tidal amplitude is positively and negatively correlated with the stratospheric T and U , respectively, in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during December and January. The results suggest that variability of the geomagnetic lunar tide during the northern winter is closely linked with dynamical changes in the lower stratospheric parameters associated with stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs).
So we have, at minimum, a connection to Sudden Stratospheric Warming events.
For a chart of lunar tidal cycles see the paper at:
http://www.pnas.org/content/97/8/3814.full where it contains this image. Lower case letters mark new moon extreme tidal mixing while capital letters mark full moon extreme tidal mixing. The low V areas between them have minimal tidal mixing, so are warm times (as the cold water is left deep).