Brief Note On The Fed Speaks

For those not already inundated with The Fed news, this is just a brief note on what they said and what it likely means.

The Fed basically said “no change” and that essentially free money continues for the foreseeable future. Maybe, possibly, 2 Fed meetings in the future, if ‘the data’ support it, they might raise interest rates off the floor.

So the TV Talking Heads Traders are going on about it being a “Risk On” world now, and that Russia, N. Korea, Cuba, Isil / Isis, Pakistan, the Sony hack, etc. etc. just don’t matter since The Fed Speaks and said go forth and buy.

They are likely correct in the short run. So the market will exit the downward drift ‘for a while’, TSLA is likely to rocket up to the SMA stack (instead of having an ongoing plummet) and all will be good. Right up until it isn’t. Generally expect a return to the SMA stack from below for things that had been falling, and a generalized Christmas Rally for the overall market. Then in a week or two things will move on and the ‘fears’ will return.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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24 Responses to Brief Note On The Fed Speaks

  1. philjourdan says:

    Inflation with minimal or no growth – stagflation. What went around comes around.

  2. Another Ian says:

    E.M. FYI

    “Rud Istvan

    December 18, 2014 at 4:47 pm

    Dr. Ball, I agree with most of your essay, except for the single sentence peak oil assertion. The many earlier predictions concerning regiomal and global conventional oil proved correct, as even the IEA has admitted. Extrapolations about the additional offsetting annual production rate contribution of unconventional oil (really just Orinoco tar sands, Athabascan bitumen sands, and source rock shales) are often misguided/ just wrong geophysics. Exhibit A being fracked shale oil well decline curves and TRR potential. Several educational illustrated essays in Blowing Smoke. You cannot let the extreme quarterly supply/demand price volatility of an inelastic commodity blind you to the longer term geophysical extraction rate (NOT total extraction potential) realities. Again, laid out in several essays in the energy section of Blowing Smoke.
    You would do well to counter those facts with counter facts, rather than a blanket assertion based only on the recent Sunni Saudi decision to punish Shiite Iran, Russia (who supports Shiite subsect Alemite Bashar in Syria), with mindful (deliberate)collateral damage to OPEC rogueVenezuela, all the while showing the US how ever increasing shale oil depends on the Red Queen hypothesis.
    My own view is that in 18 months (thanks to the Saudis) Russia will be in dire economic straights, Venezuela will be in unsustainable turmoil, and lack of ‘Red Queen’ drilling plus existing US shale well decline curves will have removed the yemporaryglobal supply/ demand imbalance, returning benchmark crude prices to at or above previous 2013 levels, and reminding everyone who os the OPEC boss. As good a futures ‘long’ as I have ever seen. All geophysics, no speculation.
    Regards and respects for the rest.”

    From comments at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/18/ironically-change-catches-up-with-climate-change-alarmists-in-lima/

  3. E.M.Smith says:

    @Phil:

    That’s about right. Heard nameplate numbers quoted of 2% inflation and 3% growth. Reality is more like 3-4% actual inflation and 2% real growth. That makes it more like 1% to 2% real shrinkage; but hidden behind cooked numbers.

    @Another Ian:

    Sounds about right to me. Saudi is the guy who sets prices. They do it for their own gain, and that is not only monetary gain. Every decade or two they like to drive alternative supply out of business. Trade one year of excess profit for 9 to 18 of monopoly price gains. That’s exactly why I’ve proposed the ‘flexible import only tariff’ as a countervailing protection against that predatory pricing.

    As it stands now, folks get destroyed. It takes a half decade for courage (or new stupidity) to enter the market. Another 5 or so to build out and get a bit of profit. Then Saudi kills you with a year of plunging prices. Wash and repeat. Yet nobody seems to want to fix that and prevent that gaming of the market. Oh Well.

    The only really wrong part of the quoted comment is that somehow ‘alternative oil’ or tar sands or shales do not matter to production. They have a high cost to produce, so below about $50 / bbl the are “not a reserve” and above that price they are. At $120 / bbl “reserves” are gigantic. As price decays down to $60 / bbl suddenly production (and “reserves”) fall way off as the higher cost sources are shut down. That isn’t much of a surprise nor much of a constraint on future production at higher prices. Yet “some folks” love to pretend it means that oil source can’t last long or can’t supply much. Yes, initial production is much higher than later production. No, that does not mean later production can not go on and be profitable for decades to come, especially if prices rise some. “Ultimately Recoverable Resource” is much more important to long term oil supply. The Malthusians never want to talk about “Ultimately Recoverable Resource”…

  4. philjourdan says:

    @E.M. Smith

    They have a high cost to produce, so below about $50 / bbl the are “not a reserve” and above that price they are. At $120 / bbl “reserves” are gigantic.

    What you say about Saudi Arabia is true. But their machinations are limited by their own reserves, and their time is running out. They can play the game a few more years, but that is it. And they did not want it to get this far – they have Obama to thank for that.

    But they also have Obama to thank for the opportunity. Flooding the market only works when the market is not expanding rapidly.

  5. Jason Calley says:

    @ E.M. and philjourdan “Saudi is the guy who sets prices. They do it for their own gain, and that is not only monetary gain. Every decade or two they like to drive alternative supply out of business.”

    Very true. That is exactly what they do. Remember though that the “petro-dollar” is half “petro” and half “dollar”. Does the US (or more accurately, do the people who make economic and political decisions in the highest levels of power) really want to have cheap alternative energy, or decentralized production of petroleum? Once the ability to back the US dollar with the stability of the global petroleum market goes away, why will people still wish to have a dollar reserve currency? All that printing of dollars will flood back home, and with it, it will bring inflation and a massive cut to how much money the government can get away with spending. Obviously, the Saudis would like to crush alternatives to oil — but the US may want to do so as well.

  6. philjourdan says:

    @Jason Calley – you are going far afield in this discussion that can take reams and reams to thoroughly explore. I do not disagree with you, but I think you are merely feeling the leg of the Elephant, and there is a lot more to it. I will leave it for another time.

  7. Jason Calley says:

    @ philjourdan “I do not disagree with you, but I think you are merely feeling the leg of the Elephant, and there is a lot more to it. ”

    It is a very human tendency — and one which I am often guilty of — to ascribe one or two causes for some major action. The truth is, almost everything big enough to be worth talking about has many causes. We say “what was the cause of WW11?” or “why did the Great Depression happen?” when even a quick investigation shows that there were dozens of reasons for both. Some reasons may be bigger than others, but it is seldom a single cause for a big event.

  8. Larry Ledwick says:

    Like plane crash investigations. There are almost always a chain of events that lead to the crash. Break that chain at any point and another outcome results. In wold affairs you have similar chains of events and forces. Take Saudi lowball oil prices. What would happen if the U.S. govt purchased large volumns of oil for the strategic oil reserve only from American wells when world prices dropped below a price support level would that just delay the failure of the higher cost producers or would it prevent preditory pricing of oil. How long could the Saudies continue depleting their fields to drive prices down. Not that I favor price supput behavior, but just an example of how the economics change based on outside forces.

  9. philjourdan says:

    @Jason Calley – Boil that down into a simple adage, or a 30 second sound byte, and you can make millions as an Inspirational speaker! LOL

    I suspect that within a short time, E.M. will accommodate us with an appropriate article (or articles) on the subject, and we can really have a grand time. Alas, at this point, I am fighting a “know it all” app owner with actual data that he does not like, so I hope E.M. postpones it for about a week. (I just did a screen shot from a box on the same subnet, so I am eagerly awaiting his rationale on how that could be a Network problem).

  10. E.M.Smith says:

    China, Russia, and some OPEC members are in talks to trade oil in local currencies. Avoiding having the trade register on USA banks (that must clear US$). So if Russia wants some Chinese shoes and computers, they swap oil for Yuan, then Yuan for goods. USA need not apply, or know. There’s also a movement to set up their own “Internet”. I’ve got saved links on both for an article “someday”… maybe a week or two ;-)

  11. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting summary of the “oil war” currently going on — at what point is it a real risk that Russia could choose to slap down Saudi Arabia hard, given that they were one of the triggers to the financial collapse of the Soviet Union.

    It seems to me that one of the unanticipated outcomes of the current war by proxy via oil prices is that Russia as in the Ukraine could decide enough is enough and go far beyond what many think would be their limits to direct action in Saudi Arabia.

    Could they facilitate a massive strike on the Saudi oil fields ??
    Could they engage in some direct black ops or proxy attacks by a falls false flag action by “ISIS extremists”

    Only time will tell, but keep in mind that one of the triggers to WWII was that Japan decided that they had no choice but to go to war to maintain access to critical resources including oil. Likewise German moves toward the middle east and the Ploesti oil fields were for self preservation and energy independence of the Third Reich.

    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Did-The-Saudis-And-The-US-Collude-In-Dropping-Oil-Prices.html

    I see a real risk here for things to go one step too far, and end up with a trigger event like Sarajevo and WWI.

  12. R. de Haan says:

    Just read this: http://www.maxkeiser.com/2015/01/kr701-keiser-report-deglobalization-internet-2-0/
    In the second half, they talk to Chris Powell of GATA.org about the CME’s letter to the CFTC exposing the fact that the central banks have ‘volume discounts’ for their trading accounts.
    Central Banks and Governments are rigging markets and have transformed into a totalitarian and parasitic system and have to be stopped ASAP.

    2015 will be an interesting year.

  13. R. de Haan says:

    We’re swimming in oil and gas as long as the infrastructure stays intact.
    There are some worries though when we see a Greek tanker burning in the Med: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-05/did-united-arab-emirates-just-declare-war-greece

    Of course the Libyans and EU will declare this attack has been an unfortunate mistake.

    Just think what will happen to the price of oil if we have some more tankers burning in some different locations like the Saudi oil terminal?

    A small loss compared to the gains to be made by a higher oil price.

  14. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry Ledwick & R. de Haan:

    There’s a peculiar echo of prior history in what is happening now. Some years ago I did a posting on The Great Game. The two players least appreciated are the UK and Saudi. All the focus is on Russia and the USA and sometimes China.

    The history of Arabia is that it was created by the UK. Then the USA ‘cut a deal’ for more stable oil supply (price floating…) in exchange for having the Saudi on ‘our side’. But the Saudi is only ever on their own side… and the UK is most often only on their own side, but with subtle lies on top (as a top story). The UK and Russia have played chess with Europe, the Middle East, the Muslim World, and anywhere else Russia has an interest since before W.W.I.

    So I would expect some highly deceptive and very indirect action out of the UK, and some devious response out of Russia. The USA is mostly just a bright, but distracted, Sgt. at Arms to both UK and Saudi… Just what those would be are, um, hidden.

    Now Saudi wants to drive competition out (mostly Canadian tar sands and US production in N.A., the Brazilians in S.A.; Russia they know is going to pump regardless, so IMHO Russia is just collateral damage and not a strategic goal for the Saudis). The Saudis would also like to discipline some of the other OPEC players (like other Arab states…) and get them back into follower mode. They want more power to OPEC with The House Of Saud directing OPEC.

    Russia is much more complex. (Isn’t it always? ;-) Putin wants to rebuild the USSR, but as a quasi-Tzarist beast. He moves strategically, carefully, and only when the ‘win’ is pretty clear and the probability of opposition is low. Nibble a bit of Georgia. Swallow Crimea whole (and point at the historical Russian ownership). Whittle some off of Ukraine, but via a sham ‘revolt’. Both the sanctions and low oil prices are hurting Russia (mostly the people and some Oligarchs…not Putin). With Obama being a spineless No-Op with no strategic vision at all (in Putin’s eyes), the USA is a non-entity. With the EU being a nest of circle-jerk pick-pockets who are more interested in ‘feather-bedding’ than anything that involves a gun, Putin knows the EU is a No-Op with no strategic importance ( i.e. NATO is not going to do anything and nobody in the EU is going to stand up to Putin and end up sitting down in the ice all alone…with no Russian Gas to warm them.)

    This means Putin knows he must be reasonably circumspect about his ambitions, say the right things in public. Stroke the right egos to make things easier. But he also knows he can do anything he wants. So gas as weapon is on the table (and used against Ukraine in the past). Military intervention and ‘adventures’ are definitely possibles.

    Now the speculation begins…

    Did the USA / UK team ask their Saudi buddies to crash the oil price as a pressure on Putin? Or was it just a recognition by both sides that they had a mutual goal? My money is on folks at that level doing things by agreement.

    So assuming Putin has as much understanding of this as anyone, what would he do? I’d guess he’s willing to just ‘tough it out’ since that eventually gets him a higher oil price too; but also to indulge in some emotionally satisfying adventures. Only if things got incredibly bad in Russia would he be willing to have a palace in Saudi blow up with “American” signatures on it… But short of that? I could see funding a revolutionary movement or two on the side, maybe having a few ships ‘mysteriously’ sink. Perhaps swallow up a bit of Eastern Europe or Kazakhstan along the way. But W.W.I.I.I.? I don’t see it happening (there). Why? He doesn’t need it or benefit from it, and The West isn’t going to do anything overt to stop him getting what he wants. So have, oh, Iraq, Kuwait, and N. Saudi being wound up in an ISIS / ISIL “Caliphate” war via indirect funding (while also funding Syria to keep the client happy…) to take some supply out; then have a team blow up a few Saudi pipelines…

    Were W.W.I.I.I. to break out, I think it far more likely that it will be on the N.Korea / Japan axis or the Iran / (everyone else) axis (with Israel as the main counterparty on the nuke side…) or on that Pakistan / India line. One of those three seems the most likely. Now would Russia, too, realize potential in this? Possibly. If so, I’d expect them to set it up so that Iran gets a few nukes with the proviso that one of them is launched at Israel but goes “off course” and hits Saudi oil fields, while another gets lofted over the USA for an EMP attack. From the Russian / Iranian point of view, it’s a ‘win-win’. But Putin likes control, and that move would involve some significant non-control; so I think Putin will not go there. But he could…

    Right now I’m pretty sure the whole Syria / ISIS-ISIL / Iraq “Cluster F” is to some extent driven by The New Great Game… with US / UK fingerprints all over parts of it, and Russian all over other parts (Syrian client, helping Iran). So if that starts to get way out of hand, you know those folks are escalating and it could blow up. Literally.

    Partly it just comes down to how effective the Saudi oil price crash works and how much US driven sanctions work. If they really bite, expect explosions. If not so much, expect a slow stealth war over territory…

    In no case expect peace or stability.

    IMHO, the most probable is a slow festering turmoil over most of the ISIS – ISIL areas along with an Iranian flare up and another Ukraine sized chunk bitten out of a neighbor of or two.

  15. Larry Ledwick says:

    Some interesting reading on this web blog.
    Lots of info that makes you do some thinking outside the normal boxes, and contemplate that the general perception of world events may be badly skewed, and a lot of politicians may not really understand the game that they are playing.

    http://20committee.com/2014/12/27/putins-orthodox-jihad/
    http://20committee.com/2014/12/23/beware-putins-special-war-in-2015/
    http://20committee.com/2014/11/03/is-a-top-american-diplomat-a-russian-agent/

  16. R. de Haan says:

    @Larry Ledwick says:
    6 January 2015 at 6:20 am

    Mmm, ample thinking out of the box discovered.

    Comparing Russia with Japan is a huge mistake.

    Japan didn’t have any resources and fought wars to secure them.

    Russia has all the resources it needs. And I am not only talking oil here but also gold, silver, rare earths, you name it.

    Recently the Russian Central Bank has taken over the entire Russian gold mining industry.

    Ever thought what would happen if the Russian Central bank decides to couple the Russian Ruble to the gold standard? Any idea what would happen if the Russians decide to skip their payments on foreign loans or decide to stop delivering any oil or gas to Europe?

    IMO the Russians have all the tools to down the entire EU economy and NATO without firing a single shot.

    And there is also this from Atimes:
    ‘A case can be made that the geopolitical shift towards Russia-China integration and a trade/commerce alliance of the pair with Germany is the greatest strategic maneuver of the past 100 years. As Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping build a new economic reality on the Eurasian ground, Western economic attacks rage like hurricanes. Someone should tell the West that “divide and rule” tactics are not working, and will only make 2015 a hair-raising year’. – Pepe Escobar (Dec 23, ’14) http://www.atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-02-231214.html

    @E.M.Smith says:
    6 January 2015 at 4:32 am

    Thanks for your views E.M.

    I really think a third WW is in the books now and the big danger IMHO is the fact that Europe and the US continue to poke the Bear (and with it its new allies) with no credible conventional armed forces to confront them in case of a military conflict.

    As a consequence any direct conflict with Russia carries the inevitable risk to become nuclear instantly.

    Where I live in West Germany I have counted at least 7 “priority targets” to be wiped out in case of war in the first minute which means seven mushroom clouds to be watched from my back yard within a range of 15 – 40 km

    These targets were listed during the Cold War and they are still listed today so in this respect nothing has changed.

    We simply lack the landmass in Western Europe to even think about such a scenario but here we are again.

    And one of the realities which make scenario’s like this into a a real possibility is the fact that the current breed of totally stupid and moronic leadership has come to believe that we can survive a nuclear war with Russia ad China. Obviously the MAD doctrine which prevented mutual assured destruction during the Cold War isn’t MAD enough today.

    The nuclear arms race has taken on steam again: http://apnews.myway.com/article/20141226/eu–russia-military_doctrine-a4a70087d7.html and http://www.worldbulletin.net/world/151671/russia-tests-10-warhead-ballistic-missile and http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/576585/20141219/df-41-missile-china-lockheed-martin.htm#.VJ20ukAADE and http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2014_04/U-S-Nuclear-Arms-Spending-Set-to-Rise

    Besides that it seems Dead Hand, the ultimate USSR doomsday machine to ensure the automated execution of the MAD doctrine if attacked has survived the collapse of the USSR and is still operational today.
    Read about “Dead Hand”, translate with Google Translate: http://www.cosmoworld.ru/spaceencyclopedia/publications/index.shtml?zhelez_22.html

    When peace doesn’t bring the needed profits, war obviously will.

    I think Panama’s Costa Rica border region or a nice long sailing trip looks a better option by the day.

    Anyhow, IMHO staying in Europe will be the most stupid decision to make this year.

    It will turn into a no go zone for at least 2 decades to come very soon.

    And that conclusion is drawn by a born optimist.

  17. R. de Haan says:

    One other interesting development recently in Mosul Iraq where IS fighters brought in Ebola from Africa: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-01/weaponized-ebola-isis-militants-said-contract-deadly-virus

    Now that’s exactly what we need…SARC

  18. R. de Haan says:

    @Larry Ledwick says:
    6 January 2015 at 6:20 am

    Just finished reading your third posting and I really must say that I am flabbergasted by the ignorance of the author who IMO lacks any historic or current inside knowledge producing an article that is nothing less but an ignorant hit piece.

    Just for the record, I am not a Putin fan and I have no affinity with the Russians at all but the article
    simply denies facts and the facts are that Putin IMHO has all the reasons in he world to do what he has done. I think the real f* ups are found in our camp.

    Just have a read at this articles that offer a less biased hence different view:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-31/guest-post-2014-russian-viewpoint and http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-18/world-awaits-russian-response-obama-makes-lethal-aid-ukraine-legal
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-26/60-prominent-germans-appeal-against-another-war-europe-it-not-about-putin-what-stake

    and in a broader perspective with some healthy reservation: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-29/clash-civilizations

    And finally this: thinking out of the box is only useful if not possible if you know what’s in it.

    Few people really know and I am certainly not one of them.

  19. R. de Haan says:

    The world’ economie drowning in debt with no viable way out is probably the biggest problem:
    Here an update: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-05/sayonara-global-economy

  20. p.g.sharrow says:

    World War 3 is going on right NOW! Muslims are making war on “others” all over the world. Putin’s Russia is a dying old nation, still dangerous but with nothing like the potential of the Soviet Union and China is at the limit of it’s surge of growth. Any China, Russian partnership is a short term marriage of convenience, there are many centuries of conflict and distrust there. Each will try to use the other to offset the power of the U.S. Neither feel a war with the U.S. is winnable, merely survivable. Only the Muslim thinks that they can win. The House of Saud has been Conducting their war against the western world for over 100 years, now their dogs are turning on them for being too western! Oil is the only tool that keeps them alive. The threat of peak oil has kept them in the drivers seat for far too long. They are no ones friends. pg

  21. Larry Ledwick says:

    Comparing Russia with Japan is a huge mistake.
    Japan didn’t have any resources and fought wars to secure them.

    You are drawing a literal comparison (oil for oil etc.) rather than a comparison of strategic needs.
    Japan had a critical survival level need to defend access to physical resources like oil, Russia also has needs but they are not physical resources but strategic access.

    Russia has enormous natural resources unlike Japan, but like Japan it has critical needs that it will likely defend at great cost and potential risk of military action and that is warm water access for its Navy, and both Sevastopol/Ukraine and the port of the city of Tartus, Syria are critical non-replaceable parts of that need. Russia will not easily be dissuaded from retaining access to either of them.

    Ukraine and Sevastopol also have long standing historical ties to Russia and emotional value to the people of Russia as a matter of pride.

    That Zerohedge link does not strike me as “even handed” but rather more like a bit over strident propaganda. It strikes me as having much more in common with classic Soviet Era disinformation and misdirection rather than an even handed discussion of what is going on in Ukraine. It is clear the Russians have expended considerable special warfare efforts in the Ukraine and part of that is an extensive public information effort to associate the current Ukraine government with being Nazis. This is a classic Soviet/Russian disinformation tactic, take a historical seed to truth and build a false narrative around it which discredits the opposition, when the agressor has clearly been the Russians using sterilized Spetsnaz troops as “volunteers” for their low key invasion.

    I think our current administration is completely tone deaf and naive regarding international affairs and like you, I worry that it will push too hard and use various naive ideas like sanctions to push Russia into a corner and they may be a bit more aggressive than our current administration anticipates.

    Given the brutal treatment of the Ukraine by Stalin Era Soviet Union they are not likely to give in quietly if Russia goes too far. It could easily blow up into a real war with all the unintended consequences that that would inevitably lead to.

    Regarding cold war v 2.0 — we have been in that for some time now. Both Russia and China have turned up the heat on that for several years, it is already in play.

    Russia dialed up its cold war behavior beginning in about 2007, and similarly so has China in recent years with provocative behavior (territorial claims against several adjacent countries) and air intercepts of Japanese planes and ships and a well documented effort to build out the military assets to control the western Pacific.

    The trigger point for overt activity consistent with cold war behavior was the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, so this in nothing new, it is just the media is just beginning to notice something that has been obvious to anyone who was paying attention for 7 years now. Both Russia and China are building out new modern ICBM systems (RS-24 for the Russians and the DF-41 for the Chinese) Both are MIRV capable systems.

    https://militarytechcooperations.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/russia-successfully-test-launches-rs-24-yars-icbm-from-plesetsk-ministry/

    http://www.defencetalk.com/df-41-chinas-answer-to-the-us-bmd-efforts-45503/

    China is also actively developing hypersonic missile technology.
    http://gizmodo.com/chinas-new-hypersonic-missile-can-scream-past-us-air-d-1501458331

  22. R. de Haan says:

    @Larry Ledwick says:
    6 January 2015 at 4:50 pm

    Thanks for your insights and the links.
    I underline your view about the importance of warm water ports as a crucial strategic asset for Russia and think we’re on the same page regarding our views.

    I have have followed Putin from day one he entered the political arena and concluded that we would be dealing with a very tough, ruthless cookie, a chess and poker player united in a single person.
    At that time I was pleasantly surprised by the speeches he made about Russia and and his economic views so I decided to give him the benefit of the doubt.

    This ended abruptly when he took on Yukos Oil and jailed Mikhail Khoderowski in 2003. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Khodorkovsky

    When we saw the raids on oppositional newspapers and the killings (Alexander Litvinenko in London, Anna Politkovskaya and many other people who opposed Putin) it was clear to me this guy was going to be a huge problem.

    The political establishment in Europe and big business however remained their trajectory of doing business as usual and continued their expansion of the EU and NATO into the East.

    The clash with Georgia didn’t come as a surprise to me, just like the recent developments in Crimea and Ukraine.

    In the West the concept of replacing hard force with legal force (we don’t need strong armies when we can control states with treaties, lawyers and sanctions) will proof to be huge mistake, just like the deindustrialisation of he West as a part of a global strategy to shackle the world population (read Blue Planet, Green Shackles from Vaclav Klaus, the former President of the Czech Republic and http://green-agenda.com a well as UN Agenda 21.

    We just watched the fall out of the bio fuel mandate that triggered the Arab Spring Revolution and for me it is clear there is no “good guy/bad guy” scenario available.

    Our establishment is just as rotten and evil as the Russian and all I can see coming is he next slaughterhouse which will turn WWII into a walk in the park.

    I also agree with p.g.sharrow who claimed that WWIII already is underway with no way to stop it.

    In Keruna, Sweden, the number of trains transporting iron ore to the coast has declined from 14 trains a day to only five, a strong indicator how dire the Global economy is doing.

    Until today war and destruction always followed a period of economic decline and no pencil pusher in the world is going to change that.

    That’s it.

  23. E.M.Smith says:

    I’ve not had time to read all the links you guys posted ( busy doing class prep work and teaching), but got through a couple. I have to agree that, generally, the Zerohedge folks are a bit over the top. (They also usually have a fair amount right just before going a step too far). IMHO, the article in the other source about Orthodoxy in Russia has a lot right as well.

    Sadly, it may well be correct to think that Russia may be the ‘savior’ of the west. Given the present self destructive PC Progressive Multicultural anti-National and decadent anti-Christian drift in the rest of the west. We ( the EU / USA / UK ) are well on our way to implosion on several fronts. (Financial, cultural, demographic, …)

    That article also has it right that Russia has a cultural heritage reaching back to The Eastern Roman Empire. They want to reclaim that former glory (and do not forget that the Varangian Guard of that Eastern Empire were of Viking extraction via the Rus that eventually became Russia. It isn’t just a romantic hypothetical. For decades they were a key part of that system and provided the best soldiers).

    So don’t slight the power of that kind of cultural history / memory.

    Folks are poking the Russian Bear, and that’s usually not a bright idea. At the same time, The Bear has been munching down chunks of countries, one every year or three; so I see no reason for them to stop doing that. After all, from their POV, it’s just “Yum! Lets have another!”.

  24. R. de Haan says:

    Yeah, Putin called Hollande today explaining to him Russia was not the enemy in Europe but Extreme Islam. It won’ surprise anyone that Hollande wants an end of the Russian boycott since it is killing the economy. The current situation is just surreal.

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