Raining Again in San Jose, In June, In A Drought

Well, this is getting to be a pattern…

In Texas they had that flooding drought thing going on, and look where that got them.
Then I was having rain at times when it wasn’t common.

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2015/05/07/raining-in-san-jose-in-the-drought/

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2015/05/14/raining-again-in-san-jose-in-may-in-a-drought/

Once again, just to be clear on it: I am quite grateful for the rain. It is welcome, and we are a bit dry on the water in storage. (Though a lot of that is due to a stupid policy of sending about 1/3 of the fresh water out the Gate to ‘s

ave the delta smelt’ when that is not the issue. )

Now, again, today, we have rain.

I was out in the garden and got chased in by a light drizzle. Now the sidewalk is wet. (One can only hope that the Drought Police know what rain is… one can get a significant fine / charge if the sidewalk gets wet from watering…)

So, I wondered, how unusual is this? I thought I remembered it happening once or twice before, but a while ago. Off to Wunderground. ( I know many folks don’t like Wunderground due to their advocacy of the Global Warming propaganda, but I rather like citing their data showing things have not changed much, or are cooler rather than warmer ;-)

From Wunderground:

History
Almanac for June 10, 2015
KSJC	Forecast	Average *	Range *
Temperature
High	76 °F	        80 °F	        70 to 90 °F
Low	60 °F	        56 °F	        51 to 58 °F
Precipitation
Rain	0.07 in	        0.00 in	        0.00 to 0.00 in
Snow	0   in	             in	             to in
Dew Point
Low	-	        46 °F	        31 to 52 °F
High	-	        53 °F	        49 to 59 °F

First off, notice the “High” and the “Range” of it. We will be about 76 F and the range is 70 F to 90 F. Now 76 is a lot closer to 70 than to 90. So just where is all that stored up “global warming” heat? Simply put, it isn’t. For things to be hotter they, well, they have to be hotter. Once you go back to cool, the “heat has left the building”. Gone. POOF! No more. Dead Polly. Deceased.

Yes, we are only 4 F below the average, but we are below the average. That is called “colder”, not warmer.

Next up, the low. It’s only 4 F above the average, so it is “forecast” that it was a bit warm last night. Well, it was, as it was much warmer yesterday and it takes time to cool down. Range is 51 F to 58 F typically, so a bit over the norm. Now notice that the daily range can be 58 F to 70 F or 51 F to 90 F. About 12 F to 39 F possible. Today is predicted to be a 16 F range, or just about normal. So it’s a normal, if a bit cool, day, after a hot normal day yesterday. (It was well below 90 F, so well inside normal yesterday).

More interesting is that precipitation number. Forcast is 7/100 inch of rain. Average is zero and range is zero to zero. Basically, it just doesn’t rain here in June unless it is a very special event. (And snow is so unheard of they don’t even bother putting in the zero…)

Clicking on the “almanac” link gives:

Weather History for KSJC
Nearest airport to San Jose, CA.See history from more local stations Get Current Weather

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

 	          Actual	Average	Record
Temperature	 
Mean Temperature   68 °F	68 °F	 
Max Temperature	   73 °F	80 °F	101 °F (1994)
Min Temperature	   64 °F	56 °F	 42 °F (1894)
Degree Days	 
Heating Degree Days	0	1	 
Month to date heating degree days		10	 
Since 1 June heating degree days		10	 
Since 1 July heating degree days		1996	 
Cooling Degree Days	4	3	 
Month to date cooling degree days		27	 
Year to date cooling degree days		97	 
Since 1 June cooling degree days		27	 
Growing Degree Days	18 (Base 50)	 	 
Moisture	 
Dew Point	60 °F	 	 
Average Humidity	74	 	 
Maximum Humidity	87	 	 
Minimum Humidity	61	 	 
Precipitation	 
Precipitation	   0.01 in	0.00 in	0.07 in (1976)
Month to date precipitation		0.05	 
Year to date precipitation		9.85	 
Since 1 July precipitation		14.86	

Here we can see that the Record hot temp of 101 F was set in 1994. Today it is 73 F. Once again I ask: “Where is that stored up heat hiding?”. It simply isn’t here. You can not be “warming” when you have gotten colder. Global Warming is a smoke and mirrors game of averaging together a bunch of chaotic weather and calling it a trend. It isn’t.

Notice that the record cold was set in 1894, during the climb out of the Little Ice Age. The “Min” has risen all of 14 F on average, or 22 F on this particular day, from that record low; while the MAX average is 21 F lower than the record and today is 28 F lower than the record.

But the bit that really interests me is the precipitation. The record was set in 1976. I remember that year well as I was learning to ski then. It was cold. It was the New Little Ice Age scare then. We were having a drought, that California tends to get when it is cold, not when it is hot, and there was this odd bit of rain that came. During the cold times. And that just happens to be the same amount of rain as predicted for today. Golly…

Also of interest is that “Since 1 July” number. We measure rain from July to July since it never rains in July. So this rain year we’ve had a bit under 15 inches of rain. Must be a horrible drought, eh?

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?casjos+ncahttp://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/san-jose/california/united-states/usca0993

SAN JOSE, CALIFORNIA (047821)

Period of Record Monthly Climate Summary

Period of Record : 7/ 1/1948 to 12/31/2005

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
Average Max. Temperature (F)	58.0	62.1	65.6	69.8	74.4	79.2	82.2	81.8	80.6	74.6	65.1	58.2	71.0
Average Min. Temperature (F)	41.5	44.2	45.8	47.6	51.3	54.8	56.9	57.1	56.2	51.9	46.0	41.8	49.6
Average Total Precipitation (in.)	2.96	2.57	2.25	1.10	0.42	0.09	0.03	0.08	0.19	0.73	1.71	2.53	14.66
Average Total SnowFall (in.)	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Average Snow Depth (in.)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Percent of possible observations for period of record.
Max. Temp.: 98.2% Min. Temp.: 98% Precipitation: 98.5% Snowfall: 98.6% Snow Depth: 98.6% 
Check Station Metadata or Metadata graphics for more detail about data completeness.

you may have to scroll to the right to see it. The total annual precipitation. It’s 14.66 inches.

So, yes, in this horrible end of life as we know it drought, our rain year total is over the average. And it is raining in June. And it is 28 F colder than the record for this day.

These folks have 15.08 inches as the average, so are likely using a different station or a different period. But in any case the rain total now is not significantly different from ‘normal’.

http://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/san-jose/california/united-states/usca0993

In Conclusion

So what I’m seeing is simply an all around normal “cool year” in California. No warming has happened. Our “drought” looks like it is more a question of how water was managed and not a matter of “no rain”.

Yes, snow is low in the mountains. And in the ’70s drought years I got to walk my skis over straw at about 7200 ft elevation 1/2 way down “Mountain Run” at Squaw Valley Ski Resort as there was darned near no snow then, either. Then again, during that cold excursion we were not flushing water out of the lakes to cover up a botched government fish introduction. I do remember Shasta and Oroville lakes being quite low, and some of the pictures today look a lot like those, then. But that is just what happens in California as the 60 year cycle, well, cycles. 1976+30= 2006, with 2006 being about when we swapped out of that 1/2 cycle back to this half.

With that, I think I’ll see if I can go dry off my sidewalk with a blower… don’t want the Drought Police to ticket me for a wet sidewalk. “Ignorance is no excuse” they say… but I’m having trouble forgiving them…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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14 Responses to Raining Again in San Jose, In June, In A Drought

  1. I’ve lived in NorCal since ’81 and remember it raining on June 6th one year, but this is pretty much as late as I can recall. Also this weather came from the North/NorEast rather than the much more common Northwest with an anti-clockwise flow.

    re: rainfall, you might already know of this site, but I always watch it during the winter… http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reports/PLOT_ESI

  2. gregole says:

    Hey, we even got some rain here in Phoenix, AZ, the world’s least sustainable city! http://www.amazon.com/Bird-Fire-Lessons-Worlds-Sustainable/dp/0199828261

    And this is after the second gorgeous spring in a row. It’s still nice and cool here today, for Phoenix, with brilliant blue skies and puffy white clouds. I’ve noticed that Phoenix mimics a lot of California’s rainstorms – if it rains in California, it just might rain here.

    And where is the scorching, unlivable heat and drought here in the desert Southwest? It simply isn’t happening.

  3. E.M.Smith says:

    @Gregole:

    When a hurricane comes up Baja, it covers from Phoenix to LA, and sometimes bits make it up to San Francisco… When a Pacific Beast comes down out of Alaska, and runs over us, it tends to keep going to Phoenix.. We share two storm sources…

    I’m rather enjoying the cool and damp here. Not the beastly hot we get some times. And yes, that “scorching, unlivable heat” is nowhere to be found…

    @Martin Fisher:

    Neat site! I have an idea for a posting now … ;-)

    Yes, this is ‘uncommon’ (but it does happen). IMHO it is an indicator of the state of the 60 year cycle. We’ll have to see what happens as the solar cycles ramp down more. We might find that the 206 year solar cycle repeat comes along… that would be about 1810 or so… Hope we don’t add in a major volcano in 2022 (1816 analog) and get another “Year Without A Summer”…

    Went looking for 1923 California weather write ups, but it’s escaping my “searchfoo”… There was a lot of history then, but not much weather history shows in the summaries. (that’s the record dry year in the link).

    @All:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_hurricanes

    has some interesting “Dig Here!” in it. The 1850’s were active (about 165 years back, or 15 years after 3 x 60 year cycles in 1835 so maybe again in 2030?). Then again 1902-1929, or about 1915 center, 80 years on from then, and about 200 years shy of now. Hmmmm… that 206 year solar cycle to us? 40s-60s are slack, then a bunch in the ’70s again. The ’90s-2010s pick up a bunch, but I wonder how much of that is increased reporting. Doing a “like for like” of only major events might be interesting. It does look like (on a casual look) that when transitioning “warm to cold” there are more storms, and perhaps also on cold to warm shifts. (Just a SWAG eyeball of it. Scientific Wild Ass Guess ;-) It looks like at peak and valley reversals things are more neutral, but at transitions up / down they pick up.

    Pre–1930[edit]
    After October 1854: A system considered to be a tropical cyclone made landfall over northern California, just north of the Golden Gate.[7]
    October 2, 1858: The 1858 San Diego Hurricane approached very close to southern California. It brought several hours of hurricane and gale-force winds to an area stretching from San Diego to Los Angeles. This storm was reconstructed as just missing making landfall, dissipating offshore.[6]
    Sometime before October 14, 1858: Since this tropical cyclone is reported in a newspaper as being only “one of the most terrific and violent hurricanes ever noted”, the report may imply the existence of an earlier hurricane in southern California.[6] Other than occurring before the newspaper account was published (October 18, 1858), everything else about this “hurricane”, including whether it even existed, is unknown.[6]
    Before June or after October 1859: A system considered to be a tropical cyclone made landfall between Cape Mendocino and San Francisco Bay.[7]
    August 11–12, 1873: Rain from a tropical storm fell on San Diego. The rain on August 12 set a record for wettest August day.[8]
    July 20–21, 1902: The remnants of a hurricane brought rain to southern California.[9]
    August 18–19, 1906: A tropical cyclone moved northward from the Gulf of California, and brought rain to southern California.[9]
    September 15, 1910: The remnants of a hurricane brought rain to Santa Barbara County.[9]
    August 26, 1915: The remnants of a tropical cyclone brought around an inch of rain to Riverside.[9]
    September 11–12, 1918: The remnants of a tropical cyclone produced six inches (150 mm) of rain to the mountains of southern California.[9]
    August 20–21, 1921: A tropical cyclone moved north from Baja California and into Arizona, producing rain in both southern California and Arizona.[9]
    September 30, 1921: The remnants of a tropical cyclone moved northward from Baja California, and brought rain to Arizona and parts of California.[9]
    September 18, 1929: A tropical cyclone in the Pacific Ocean dropped rain over southern California.[9]

    This is a little less clear… So the pre-30s had a lot (many 1850s) then quiet through the warm end, a spike to 7 when things went cool, but then a bounce up in the 80s and spike in the oughties when the sun rolled over? I donnno… needs work… Maybe it is just more of the 200ish year solar cycle…

    Number of recorded storms impacting California
    Period	Number of storms
    Pre-1930	11
    1930s	  7
    1940s	  3
    1950s	  5
    1960s	  3
    1970s	  7
    1980s	  9
    1990s	  7
    2000s	10
    2010s	  8
    
  4. E.M.Smith says:

    @OManuel:

    Nice to see that UKIP is not going to be any less of an enterprise with Nigel benched for awhile ;-)

    I just love the direct approach…

    (Interestingly enough, this is being posted via a CentOS 6.x LiveCD and there is no typeahead in the comment block. Did have to tell it to ‘install’ an Adobe plugin to see the video, and would need to do that every time unless install. Still, all in all, a very usable experience… Hmmm…)

  5. R. Downing says:

    Where do you get the idea that Nigel Farage has been ‘benched’? Despite not winning a seat at Westminster, he is still an MEP, as he has been since 1999.

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    @R. Downing:

    Likely my error of assumption. The news here was all full of him losing his seat and being dumped as party head. Then a minor almost followup that maybe he’s still to be party head. Then dead air. Not a lot of UK news makes it to the surface here. So he keeps his MEP seat? Good.

  7. Bill S says:

    My bad. After a decade or so of doing nothing much, I bought a new telescope and made plans to go to Monterey.

  8. E.M.Smith says:

    @Bill S:

    Well, I’d not try it from near the coast. Too much ocean fog comes inland for good seeing of the sky. Then again, if you are going to be looking at landscape, that’s the place. If you ever get the chance, drive up to Mount Hamilton. Lots of parking and they have tours of the telescope. I’m sure they would not mind you setting up a personal / portable in the parking lot either. Be advised the road is narrow with hairpin turns and steep at the top end. Not easy for a Cadillac or F350 Truck; take a honda or BMW and it’s better… (I have taking a Ford F350 up there, but regretted it. It was much more fun on a Honda Silverwing 500 CC V-twin bike ;-)

    You can also find open ground to set up near the roads out toward Hollister. (Yes, I’ve got a Celestron, but haven’t used it since the kids grew up… We had great fun looking at a comet or two with it when they were little… and the moon… and where did I store that?… ;-)

  9. Ralph B says:

    Here I am in Huntington Beach for 2 weeks (working) and the 1st 3 days have had some precipitation. Nothing major of course but enough to make the roads wet yesterday.

    Funny…EM lives in CA and comes to FL to work, I live in FL and come to CA to work. Are we playing who has the bigger carbon footprint? Gas prices here are friggin’ crazy…among many other things of course.

  10. Bill S says:

    Monterey would be the general vacinity of place to retire. We are actually about one lotto ticket shy of being able to retire in San Jose or Monterey. We pick vacation spots that are in driving distance of potential astronomy sites. Then do whatever comes up. As long as we can find a decent oyster bar it counts as a good fishing trip.
    We go to Mount Pinos when I am serious about checking out some faint fuzzies.

  11. E.M.Smith says:

    @OManuel:

    Oh Boy! Fresh video to watch ;-)

    @Ralph B:

    Well I have been living in Florida for almost 2 years… and my intent is to get back as fast as I can…

    But yeah, the “carbon footprint” of repeatedly driving a 2 ton vehicle coast to coast is not small.

    Gasoline in California runs about $1 / gallon more than Florida and sometimes as much as $1.50/ gallon more than Texas. I kept a log of prices last “coast to coast” run intending to make a price posting, but my round tuit for that one has gone missing ;-)

    But yes, California gas is “special”, the little darling, and you just must appreciate that it has “needs” and wants a sugar daddy to cherish it…

    @Bill S:

    The further you get from the major urban centers, the cheaper it is. So coastal land near San Francisco is hideously expensive, or near Monterey; but get up 1/2 way to Crescent City or 1/2 way from S.F. to L.A. and it’s not so bad.

    Similarly, as you go inland it gets cheaper. Up in the hills of the Sierra Nevada you can get very nice land with decent ‘seeing’ for very cheap. Heck, even on the back side of Mount Hamilton it is dirt cheap. (Just realize they lock the gate at Mount Hamilton during very bad weather, so any “going to town” then is down the backside and 50 miles to the next small town…)

    I’d avoid San Jose and Monterrey for retirement, and pick something smaller further out as far more bang for the buck. CalTrain now runs all the way to Gilroy, and other transit goes even further; so you can just ‘drive to Gilroy’ and then sit in a nice AC equipped train all the way to downtown San Francisco (with stops in San Jose and Palo Alto main street with all the night life you could want, and Stanford the other side of the street) for about $10 last time I rode it.

    Then you don’t need a lotto ticket…

    Oh, and there is a decent “South Valley wine tour” field of choice down that way. Further down you get into the Central Coast wineries …

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/10/13/tim-clark-sfo-sjc-san-francisco-bay-area-travel/

    scroll down a bit and you get the list of things to do and local transit systems (though I noted that the maps linked are now broken… so I need to fix that.)

    Comments cover some of the South Valley wine country and more.

    Oh, and there are decent clam shacks Santa Cruz to Pismo Beach, so no worries ;-)

    http://www.coastalliving.com/travel/lodging-dining/california-seafood-dives

  12. Pingback: Flooding Drought Comes To California | Musings from the Chiefio

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