I find this fast 10 day 15 minute chart fascinating:
Prices are just sliding down that SMA line ( roughly the 50 period, or 12.5 hour line). Volume yesterday had a drift down while prices were up the start of the day, then volume increased as prices fell (so going down more). Today price is dropping and volume is dropping to match. Implying a rise into the close. But the Talking Heads are talking about margin calls likely at 2 PM ET from the Friday drop. Yet looking at GLD and TLT, the “risk off” assets are being sold down. Money is flowing from the Risk Off trade “somewhere”. It might be margin calls, or it might be buying stocks.
So my best guess on this is that the safe havens are fading and someone is buying stocks with the money (or at worst, not meeting margin calls with stock selling but with bonds and gold). MACD, DMI and PSAR have not yet said “buy”, but that could happen quickly on this time scale chart. Also notice that at the 10% down line, we seem to have a hard floor under prices even on major panic days.
All this is what I call “wedging in”. There is a narrowing wedge and when you reach the tip of the triangle “something gives”. The usual resolution is away from the direction of drift (presently down) so would argue for an upside move about 2:30 ET (and more upside tomorrow given the ‘floor’ aspect and how volume is dying to the downside).
At least, that’s what the chart says to me. We’ll see tomorrow ;-) The major worry point just being that volume often dips mid day so that downward slope might be wishful thinking (it will be more clear after lunch at about 2 PM ET) and the peaks of the Market Close 1/2 hour volume on down prices IS rising (a lot of mutual fund folks still bailing at the close and market maker front running that order book, IMHO). So one could make a case for the “smart money” and market makers loading up inventory at 10% to 5% down, and the mutual fund folks still selling into it.
The close will be interesting…