Well, it looks like after the year and then the months, we’re down into the days until the Big eCat Announcement… or the Next Tease…
ERV is the external reviewer of the 1 year eCat test, I think ;-)
JONP is the Journal Of Nuclear Physics – Rossi’s web site.
It looks like the review is all written up and at least a summary of it that pleases Rossi is going to be made public inside 10 days.
Andrea Rossi has provided a bit of a profile of the ERV:
March 29, 2016 at 10:58 PM
Dr Andrea Rossi:
Can you give us the characteristics of the ERV ?
1- age AR: around 50- 55
2- education: AR: Doctorate in Nuclear Engineering
3- professional experience AR: Nuclear Power Plants
4- has also due experience in certification of plants? AR: yes
5- who paid his work and all his expenses ? AR: fifty-fifty Leonardo Corporation and Industrial Heat
Thank you if you can answer,
Andrea Rossi made this announcement on the Journal of Nuclear Physics Today:
March 29, 2016 at 1:44 PM
WE HAVE RECEIVED RIGHT NOW THE ERV’S REPORT WHICH HAS BEEN DELIVERED TO INDUSTRIAL HEAT AND TO MYSELF.
While I cannot release the report publicaly at this time, I can state that I am very pleased with the results.
I hope that Industrial Heat and I will be able to release the report publicaly in the near future.
May God help us for the hard work waiting for us all.
Dr Andrea Rossi, CEO of Leonardo Corporation
We’ll only have to wait 10 days max according to Andrea Rossi on the JONP:
March 29, 2016 at 2:18 PM
If not a full release of the ERV report, how about a synopsis?
March 29, 2016 at 4:12 PM
Yes, I will publish it within a tenth of days, anyway.
So before “Tax Day” is the target range…
Either this will be one giant Yawn as Yet Another Non-Evidence happens, or the world will undergo a large shift.
FWIW, there are a couple of other pages on that first link asking internesting questions, like how do you roll out that big an economic change to the world, and how do Governments handle this as they tax the hell out of energy at present.
IMHO they tend a bit too much to paranoia and concern, both in the articles and more so in the comments. Despite the assertion that nothing so radical has happened before, it has happened many times. Horses to motor cars. The onset of the Steam Age. Computers revolutionizing all things computational and word related. The post W.W.II exodus from ocean liners and trains and into airplanes. (At least in the USA, passenger trains were only saved as rolling museum pieces, really, until the latest Green Surge; while ships are now floating amusement parks). Gutenberg and movable type. (How many scribes do you know today? How many teamsters that actually work a horse team? etc. etc.)
In reality, it takes a few years for folks to “get with it”. I was something of a ‘late adopter’ of digital cameras. Try to find film today at Walmart. 2 speeds and about a dozen rolls. A decade back it was sold by the pallet in COSTCO. Yet I was about 5 years waiting to get my first one.
So while some folks are saying how this will decimate oil as everyone runs to the cheaper power source, I look at the problem of “fleet change” and see a decade just to replace the cars if we were already making and selling eCat based ones. Now add in the 5 to 10 years to design, safety test and certify, convert factories and assemble / ship… It will be 20 years before gasoline is getting low demand. Even then, it will be around and demanded. Ships, trains, and trucks last even longer and have a longer fleet change profile.
Buildings and boilers? Homes and water heaters? A similar long cycle. First samples have to be made and shipped. That means you need a factory and facilities and staff and… Now Rossi claims to have some of that ready to rapid start.
So I could easily see him selling a 1 MW plant a week for a while since folks can see the report on this one, and maybe even tour it. BUT, the world has millions of such heater installations. 52/1,000,000 is a small fraction per year.
For the home units (combined heat and power) we’re talking maybe a global demand of about 1 Billion? At 1 million / year that takes 1000 years… And it will start at closer to 1000 a year.
The simple fact is that it takes a long time for folks to pay attention, hear from friends, become comfortable with the new idea, save up money to buy it, wait for the old one that’s all paid for to wear out, etc. etc.
So what for Rossi is a “warship” of capacity is nearly nothing to the world.
Even if folks embraced it intensely from day one and ran hell bent for leather at it, you are staring a decade or two in the face. It would take that long just to build all the factories, source all the materials, get all the global regulatory approvals, hire sales staff, etc. etc. on down to all those installers.
So I’m not seeing anything dire for the global economy out of this. (Assuming it is real). Just the usual “disruptive technology” cycle of an industry being routed over the course of a decade. High prices initially as the competition sets the price (i.e. if you make energy 1/10 the price of oil, you can sell for 1/2 the price of oil and make a very nice profit), price slowly coming down as capacity to deliver product increases until eventually you reach a ‘shake out’ phase 1/4 century out.
Per taxes: Governments find a way to tax anything. From making it a property tax uplift to just putting a ‘tax meter’ on it and collecting what they now get from electricity and gas, but from you not the power company, to just putting a big tax on any old thing they feel like taxing. Maybe one late night session of the legislature and the dream of tax free energy goes POOFF! I’m not worried that government will be unable to make more taxes…
Once again we are left with “hope”. “But hope is not a strategy. -E.M.Smith”; and I’d add neither is a crystal ball.
But at least we’re down to the days range. Fish or cut bait time fast approaches.
My expectation is that we’ll get a letter from Leonardo Corp saying “everything was fine per the reviewer. Here’s some selected quotes.” And we can all go back to grumbling. It would be great to have a press conference and the “user” say “It was us, we’re very happy, ordered 2 more, and tours starting next month, $10 a head.” Don’t expect it though.
It will be very interesting to watch oil markets and selected national currencies in the next month…