BREXIT Train Now Boarding!

Wooo Wooo!

h/t to Larry here:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2017/03/03/tips-march-2017/#comment-80749

Larry Ledwick says:
14 March 2017 at 3:23 am (Edit)

Theresa May FINALLY wins the power to trigger Article 50, expected to pull the trigger at the end of the month.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4308576/Tory-rebels-concede-defeat-EU-Bill.html

Which Daily Mail says:

Theresa May FINALLY wins the power to trigger Article 50 as historic Brexit Bill is sent to the Queen following climb-down by peers

No 10 today moved to end speculation of an immediate Article 50 trigger
May is expected to be handed power to do so tomorrow but will wait two weeks
Commons rejected both of the amendments to the Brexit Bill earlier tonight
House of Lords decided against defying the will of the elected chamber again

By James Tapsfield, Political Editor For Mailonline and Tim Sculthorpe, Deputy Political Editor and Chris Summers For Mailonline

Published: 07:20 EDT, 13 March 2017 | Updated: 20:01 EDT, 13 March 2017

Theresa May has finally won the power to trigger Article 50 after peers backed down and passed the Brexit Bill after two crucial votes in the Commons earlier.

MPs followed orders to delete an amendment on guaranteeing the rights of EU nationals, backing the Government 335 to 287, majority 48.

The Commons also defeated the second amendment on the timetabling of votes at the end of the negotiation by a majority of 45.

Peers then debated the deletions but did not offer any further resistance. It means the historic legislation will be law by tomorrow.

Viscount Hailsham, a Tory peer who voted in favour of the amendment last time, said tonight: ‘We have asked the Commons to think again, they have thought again, they have not taken our advice, and our role now I believe is not to insist.’

Despite the climb down by Remain supporters in Parliament, Mrs May will not trigger Article 50 tomorrow – despite expectations having risen she might.

No 10 today denied the Prime Minister had been spooked by Nicola Sturgeon’s shock announcement of plans for a second independence referendum.
[…]

Yeah, I’m sure the Scots moving to a 2nd “Run Away!” vote had nothing to do with it… /sarc;

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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29 Responses to BREXIT Train Now Boarding!

  1. Ian W says:

    People have to understand that the Scottish National Party led by Nicola Sturgeon do not want independence for Scotland. They desperately want Scotland to remain a region of the European Union. This gives a ‘career path’ for their faded under-performing politicians into the EUrocracy where you no longer have to worry about elections and votes and can get significantly richer and leave with a 6 or even 7 figure ‘pension’. Scotland could even disappear as a name used in polite EUrocratic circles and the area would become the West North Sea region of the EU (or something similar). There is an office of the ‘Regions of Europe’ the regions are intended to be transnational and have elections in an attempt to reduce the ‘national identities’ of the populace. This blurring of the edges would also be achieved by allowing free movement/migration across boundaries and allowing significant legal and illegal immigration. Immigration to provide sufficient young people to work in the populations that were no longer fecund at replacement levels (see Germany).
    So that explains Sturgeon’s wish to derail Brexit at all costs – she has a wallet that needs to be filled.

    Mrs May of course could take another surprise route that is open to British Prime Ministers. She could after the issue of Article 50 to the EU, call a ‘snap’ election to be held at the beginning of May (apt). The Labour party are in total disarray with Jeremy Corbyn (very very similar to Bernie Sanders) as their leader going left of almost every subject and managing to alienate almost all of his own party and notably the electorate in Scotland. Sturgeon is not at all secure in Scotland whereas the Conservatives appear to be newly resurgent despite only currently having a few seats in Scotland. UKIP (founded by Nigel Farage) despite in-fighting are in second or third place in many constituencies and could eat away some of the Labour votes. The result could be that May would win a significant majority and that could include a far larger part of Scotland which would then no longer have a majority party pushing for the EU, and that would also give her an unassailable ‘mandate’ from the voters to continue with Brexit almost certainly a ‘Hard Brexit’ (like a divorce where one partner’s belongings are all in the front yard, the joint accounts drained and the locks are changed).

    Watch this space.

  2. omanuel says:

    Thanks for the good news!

    Trump in the US and Brexit in Britain are two expressions of the same sentiment: “We want government by the people, for the people, not unelected bureaucrats In the EU or the UN overruling the will of the public.”

  3. philjourdan says:

    Britain has re-affirmed its independence. Soros is going to be pissed.

  4. omanuel says:

    ClimateGate emails that surfaced in Nov 2009, Nobel Prizes for Al Gore and the UN’s IPCC, and “97% consensus scientific confirmation” of the AGW scam generated many of the votes for Trump and Brexit.

  5. beththeserf says:

    Like the song goes, ‘ Britain never, never, never will be slave.’
    Tell the EU to paddle it’s own canoe.

  6. gareth says:

    Well, leaving the EU is a good thing and I voted for it, along with the rest of the small majority (just counting the folks who turned out to vote – the majority of the population did not vote to leave). The EU is by design a supra-national state which intends to replace it’s nation state members by an “ever closer union”. And I don’t want that at all.
    On the other hand, I speak several EU languages, share a 2000 year culture and have EU friends, neighbors & colleagues (and a Godson) none of whom I want to exclude or tell to “go home” – their home is here. Outside of the EU, but still trading within the EEA single market along with Norway & Iceland would have been a good first step to re-modeling Europe along the intra-governmental lines proposed by Churchill amongst others. And I keep my friends, neighbors, colleagues & Godson.
    The problem is that (to quote Michael Cain) we were “only supposed to blow the bl**dy doors off!” i.e. leave the EU. What our political masters seem intent on is to drop out entirely from the single market in one fell swoop and hope that all will be lovely under WTF rules. Maybe that will be fine in the long term – the problem is the transition. To be clear: we are looking at an “event” rather than a process – a plane crash rather than a smooth landing.
    The degree of ignorance amongst our politicos and msm is appalling. We have people claiming that WTO rules will be just fine – after all the EU trades with the US only under WTO rules (actually there are many bilateral agreements, same with China and almost everywhere else. They could just read all this on the EU website – but who needs facts). And the EU is a rules based organization and we will (voluntarily, by our own actions) be putting ourselves outside of the free trade area, to become a “Third Country” with all that entails. Check out Richard North’s EUReferendum.com site for well researched factual details.
    It’s been said that civilization is only three days missed meals away from riots and anarchy. So, come 2019 I shall be using your previous tips about “3 months worth of dried goods” and hoping not to be shot for hording (not joking). Fortunately I don’t live in a city.

  7. Alexander K says:

    As a formerly-British New Zealander who remembers our country being stripped of our British status by the Home Office in the nineteen=sixties, this particular wheel coming full circle contains some ironies in my view. However, with the experience of working in England for almost a decade I can imagine unrest among the generation younger than mine and the huge number of Asian immigrants who are themselves British. Many of my parents’ generation and that of my older siblings fought (and died) for the ‘Mother Country through two world wars, and I found it very sad that those who fell are no longer regarded as British (which they were then) by the current inhabitants of the UK..

  8. Gareth – I’d have voted out as well, to get away from the USSE (united soviet states of Europe) and the unelected rulers with their ideals of homogenisation. However, I didn’t vote since I thought that the people who still live in the UK should be the ones to decide. It turns out they also resisted the threats of disaster and voted with their feet, where I’d thought they would knuckle under and go for safety.

    The EU have refused to even begin negotiation until Article 50 has been triggered. They have also said that no benefits of EU membership will be given unless free movement of people was also allowed – in fact they have insisted on that and basically said they would make it so painful that no other country would dare to leave. Mrs. May thus has no other option at the moment but the “hard Brexit” you’re complaining about. I’m sure she’d have gone for a better option had it been available, but to leave this club you need to crawl barefoot over broken glass and drink deeply from the urinal. This isn’t necessary, of course, and it will hurt the rest of Europe as well, but they are looking at France and the Netherlands and worrying about their own power-base (and paymasters) also leaving the club if they aren’t careful.

    The obvious thing would have been to go back to the Free Trade Area we actually voted to join back in ’72 or so, and back out of the ever-deeper union. It gets pretty complex, though, and I don’t know enough about the subject. Maybe no-one else does either, though, since those agreements are pretty dense. EM’s “mirror” would be a good idea, too – if you charge me tariffs I’ll charge you tariffs, and if you don’t then I won’t.

    I think we’ve been lucky with Mrs. May and she’ll do the best possible deal. I would expect a few years of hardship and then the UK will in 5-10 years be doing better than if it had remained in the EU. The hardship is simply because Juncker wants to keep the UK in and wants to make it as hard as possible in the hope that the UK will give in and stay. This bloody-mindedness will of course be bad for me too (I live in France) and a pain in the butt in general, but I think the independence of Britain will be worth it.

  9. gareth says:

    Simon – thanks for your comments.
    Regarding the EU not negotiating till we formally say that we are leaving: that’s what article 50 says they are to do. What else do you expect?
    And “no benefits of EU membership will be given unless free movement of people was also allowed” – that’s the rules of the club! Like a golf club saying that you can’t play unless you are a member and sign up to the rules. Why is this surprising?
    And points about the old “Common Market” that we signed up to (I was just too young) are moot – we subsequently signed up to the EU constitution AKA Lisbon.
    We are where we are – we could get out fairly painlessly via EFTA/EEA but instead the fool May and the rest are planning (AFAICS guided entirely by ignorance) what will be a multiple into type crash.
    I hope our true mileage varies, but doubt it will ;-)
    And I agree that out of the EU is much better than ever closer union – but do we really need to saw our own heads off when we just want to loose a few pounds of ugly fat?

  10. gareth says:

    Err – I think the web thingie reinterpreted my angle brackets:
    for “what will be a multiple into type crash.” insert ” what will be a multiple {insert large aircraft type here} into {select several of school/hospital/housing estate} type crash”
    Hopefully that’s fixed it – and just shows how easily stuff goes wring ;-)

  11. E.M.Smith says:

    @Gareth:

    WordPress interprets ANYTHING inside angle brackets to be ITS property and tries to turn it into HTML. If it doesn’t work, that then gets tossed out. Always. NEVER use angle brackets in a matched set unless you have valid HTML inside it (and only the subset WordPress understands…)

    @SImon:

    Just remember that the EU needs British trade more than Britain needs the EU trade. I did a posting on that which showed Britain does more trade with the USA / ROW than the EU, while Germany is really needing those British car buyers.

    In any pissing match, it is the EU that gets to drink from the urinal…

    WHEN the UK signs a set of bilateral trade agreements with the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand it is home free, the EU be damned (and it will be…). Might have to give up some Mercedes limos and VW Liar-mobiles though…

  12. Gareth – at the moment, various countries within the EU are reconsidering the Free Movement idea, since although it’s great for the people of poor countries who can go to another country to find work and send money home, it causes problems in the richer countries where the low-skilled can no longer find jobs or housing as easily. It’s hard enough to get a balance across a country (why London wages are high, and houses there are expensive, and people tend to leave it when they retire to go live somewhere prettier and cheaper) but after a while the flows around the country settle to a steady-state. Add in countries with wildly-different wages and costs of living and the flows are unbalanced for a generation or two until the various countries become generally comparable.

    Basically, if you make social changes faster than the people can adjust, there will be problems, and that’s what the EU set out to do. Jobs move to where the wages are low (my job went to Hungary where wages were 20% of the UK, which resulted in me taking early retirement) and it takes a while for all countries to come to the same general level so there’s no driving necessity to move to another country – it’s just as sick as the country you’re in.

    The real problem with the exit negotiations is that all 27 current members will need to agree with them. We saw with the Canadian trade negotiations that the Walloon government held that up until they got what they wanted, and I would expect that sort of brinkmanship to also apply to Brexit. It is what it is, and you know the joke about what has 54 legs but no brain? Yep, it’s a committee….

    As EM says, the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU. I still expect that some minor members of the EU will mess around, though, in order to get a slightly bigger slice of the cake for themselves (and bugger the Germans in the process, of course, which isn’t clever since they will be the main paymasters).

    I think Trump will keep his word and put the UK at the head of the queue for trade deals, and Oz and NZ want trade deals, and it won’t be long before the UK is doing well again (and better than before). The EU is trying to impose a political ideal rather than real politics, but maybe a few years down the line they’ll realise the benefits of a tariff-free trade area.

    If I’d been living in the UK, I’d have voted for Brexit despite knowing there would be a few years of pain, since it will give my daughter a better future. She’s been working zero-hour contracts as well as being a student, and though I’m pretty sure she’ll always find a job, that doesn’t apply to a lot of her friends. With a less-cumbersome and less-meddling government (and lower taxes!), that should improve.

    I can agree with Trump’s “America First” idea, except for me it’s “UK First”. Of course, we might lose Scotland and Northern Ireland in the process…. Scotland, if they have any sense, will stay, though. For Northern Ireland, it would probably make more sense to re-unify Ireland and allow the Northern Irish dual-nationality, but they’d need a referendum on that. Interesting times….

  13. LG says:

    E,M.Smith said:

    WHEN the UK signs a set of bilateral trade agreements with the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand it is home free, the EU be damned (and it will be…). Might have to give up some Mercedes limos and VW Liar-mobiles though…

    Joseph Farell Hypothesizs:

    Great Britain’s next move after the BREXIT would be to revive the British Commonwealth of Nations and use it, and its position on China’s Asia Infrastructure Development Bank, as a soft-power culture-power card to reshape the political and economic landscape of the West

    https://gizadeathstar.com/2017/03/brexit-britain-renewed-commonwealth-yes-whats-project-part-one/
    https://gizadeathstar.com/2017/03/brexit-britain-renewed-commonwealth-yes-whats-project-part-two/
    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-02-21/future-english-speaking-peoples?cid=int-now&pgtype=hpg%C2%AEion=br1

    The BREXIT happened, and I argued that the next step for Great Britain – a logical and natural one – would be to revive the soft-power culture card of the British Commonwealth. That, indeed, appears to be happening, for as readers of this website are aware, Britain has extended the idea of making the United States an associate member, and the Trump Administration appears to be listening.

    From the geopolitical point of view, the move makes sense, for India, a principal member of the BRICSA bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), would be a crack in the emerging Eurasian dike, and with British membership in China’s Asia Infrastructure Bank, Britain has carefully positioned itself as a go-between between the West and that bloc, and that during a time when Brazil’s participation has been severely diminished due to the overthrow of Dilma Rouseff as that nation’s president.
    ______________________________
    This article, notably, stresses the very same soft power card:

    Legal systems of Common Law, a relentless defense of democratic principles, English as first language, common business practices, and traditional support for free trade are the glue that holds together countries that are geographically so distant. Cultural ties lower transaction costs between countries and foster trust. No wonder that, in making foreign direct investments, the United States shows a strong preference for Anglo-Saxon countries, with about 23 percent of total American foreign direct investment going to Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.

    In finance, technology, science, and trade, the Anglosphere already plays a dominant role, albeit in an informal way. But there are also formal means of cooperation, including the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing group; the Air and Space Interoperability Council, which aims to make members’ defense systems interoperable; and the Rhodes Scholarship, which brings students from around the world to study at Oxford University. More recently, New Zealand has offered to send London its top trade negotiators to augment the British civil service as it prepares to renegotiate hundreds of trade agreements with the rest of the world. And a recent poll found overwhelming support within Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom for granting nationals reciprocal rights to live and work freely among the four countries.

  14. Ian W says:

    Gareth, An abstention is a vote to accept the will of the majority that do vote. Abstention has consequences. Thus the majority was in support of leaving the EU. Free movement and single market are the basis of the EU and it is not possible to have a foot in both camps. UK is still part of the European Free Trade Area, which gives much of the same benefits without the regulatory disbenefits.

  15. tom0mason says:

    The way I see it is the English have never been asked whether they want Scotland to stay part of Britain. Maybe Mrs May should threaten an English referendum on that question as a reply to the Scots Nationalist and see how far it goes…

  16. gareth says:

    Ian W – “UK is still part of the European Free Trade Area”. This is not so – as you can quickly see if you google “EFTA States”. It was many years ago, but left when it joined the EEC as was (now EU). UK is *currently* part of the EEA (=single market) because it is a member state of the EU.
    Why does this distinction matter?
    1. When it drops out of the EU and does not take steps to stay in the EEA (e.g. by rejoining EFTA) the UK will suddenly and automatically place itself outside all the tariff and non-tariff barriers of the EU, trying to trade under WTO rules and without the benefit of any of the current deals that the EU has with most trading partners. Maybe long term this will be fine BUT in the short term this will likely cause sudden and massive disruption to trade = food shortages, civil unrest, etc.
    2. It matters because “UK is still part of the European Free Trade Area” is factually wrong. If we are basing our plans on wrong facts we will get a wrong outcome – and all the debate in the UK (such as there is) is based on facts which are similarly wrong (“the EU doesn’t have any trade deals with US or China” being one such recent example).

  17. gareth says:

    Ian W – also, “Free movement and single market are the basis of the EU and it is not possible to have a foot in both camps”.
    Although the Four Freedoms (people, capital, goods, services) are core values in the EU, EFTA and EEA, they can be suspended or limited. Lichtenstein limits people and Iceland (IIRC) suspended movement of capital during the banking crisis. EFTA states can do this unilaterally, EU states have to have EU permission.
    None of this stuff is secret – it’s hiding in plain sight. Unfortunately our politicos and msm base their existence on determined ignorance and being impervious to clue, which is why we will be doomed :-(
    EM: if you want to “dig here” on this stuff I’d recommended Richard North’s EU Referendum blog where you will find all the information already excavated and laid out for inspection. Don’t be put off by his tone, he’s very rarely wrong about facts. Particularly see the monographs and Flexcit.

  18. Ian W says:

    Gareth.
    “EU states have to have EU permission.” which would not be given we have been there before. Rejoining EFTA is simple and has no risk of a EUrocracy take over of UK.
    The effect of putting tariff boundaries up for UK trade with the EU would be reciprocal and the EU would lose considerably more than UK as the balance of trade is currently grossly in EU’s favor particularly Germany and France. The reason Far East car manufacturers are still moving to UK is that if UK exits and EU has a hissy fit, the manufacturers will gleefully fill the gap left by VW, BMW, SEAT, FIAT, Renault etc. etc. – a huge market. If Brexit doesn’t happen they are inside EU tariff boundaries – a no lose situation. However, Brexit is likely to see the demise of the Euro and Eurozone with even Germany already assessing the perceived benefits of return to the DM.

    Your buyer’s remorse is palpable. But I will be surprised if the EU still exists by 2025

  19. gareth says:

    Ian,
    LOL, but I don’t think buyer’s remorse applies. Anyway, I was buying “Leave the EU”, not “sudden trade collapse brought on by stupidity” ;-)
    I agree entirely that re-joining EFTA is the way to go. It would be the first step on a path to the kind of inter-government vision proposed by Churchill amount others.
    Regarding the “it would hurt the EU far more than us” type arguments that we are seeing – they miss the point. The EU would not be putting up tariff (and, importantly, non-tariff) barriers against us. The barriers already exist, they are EU law – but they do not currently affect us because we are inside the EU. When we leave, especially if we “walk away” with no deal, we will become subject to them because we will have left the EU. We will become what is termed a “third country”. To expect the EU not to apply the barriers is asking them to set aside the rule of their law. In addition, under WTO rules they will be bound to apply the same rules to us as to any other third country. It’s not a matter of anyone having a hissy fit – that’s just the way it works.
    I too will be surprised if the EU lasts much longer. It’s a bad thing, as bad for it’s other members as for the UK. I’d just like to see Brexit as a plane landing rather than a plane crash – a managed process, not a chaotic “event”.
    Cheers :-)

  20. Perry says:

    I wonder how many who post here are aware that Dr Richard North published a plan four years ago for leaving the European Union. Now in its 8th version dated 13 July 2016 v. 08, it reveals that British politicians are rank amateurs & that the MSM are uninformed cretins. These two links will enlighten those with open minds.

    http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/flexcit.pdf

    http://www.eureferendum.com/

  21. E.M.Smith says:

    @Perry:

    Likely to take a day or two to get to it, but thanks for the pointer.

    Anyone who thinks the UK can’t have an express trade deal with the USA is unclear on the mood of this nation… just remember it was Obama who said back of the bus… and his folks lost.

    I imagine a similar express deal with pretty much all of The Commonwealth is also likely (if not automatic… don’t know enough about Commonwealth rules and UK status, but expect it is either automatic or just push a bit of paper…)

    Heck, if The Commonwealth takes off again, I’d be tempted to claim British citizenship just to wander around it in my retirement and flash a real UK passport… have to check the death tax laws first though…

  22. Perry says:

    E. M.

    Our death tax laws state that money given to family & friends, over seven years before death, is free of death duty. I sold the family home in 2009, gave my sons all my money (except my pension) & they bought the house we all live in. HMG gets nothing.

    However, this also helps now.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3149007/Inheritance-tax-joy-families-Middle-classes-escape-death-duty-threshold-rises-1million.html

  23. jim2 says:

    The bigger the organization, the scummier the administrators it seems.

  24. p.g.sharrow says:

    @jim2; the scum always rises to the top!
    the bigger the organization, the more scum to rise..;-)…pg

  25. p.g.sharrow says:

    Conversely, the solids that support the organization always seem to get pushed to the bottom…pg

  26. Steven Fraser says:

    Set your clocks for Mar 29 liftoff!

  27. E.M.Smith says:

    @Steve:

    I’ve got mine set for March 27th to watch the pre-game fireworks ;-)

  28. jim2 says:

    This is interesting. If the incursion of Islam comes to a head, this might happen!

    “In once secret files, now tucked away in the National Archives at Kew, The Independent has discovered the outlines of a cunning plan, drawn up by a succession of far-sighted civil servants and senior military officers, for a very hard, hard Brexit. It involves the option of blowing up the Channel Tunnel with a nuclear bomb, and not telling the French what we are up to.”

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/superhard-brexit-uk-planned-to-blow-up-the-channel-tunnel-with-a-nuclear-bomb-35589713.html

  29. E.M.Smith says:

    Are you sure they were not taken in by an April 1 page further up stream… Just sayin’, it would not take a nuke to deal with the tunnel…

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