An open discussion page for the French Election Round One.
Looks like about 2 PM ET or about 11 AM PT for the first exit poll results (on Sunday). After 8 PM Paris time poll closings.
The top 4 candidates include 2 who are quasi-anti-EU. This could encourage a Frexit movement. Then there are two others, including the one given the best chance of winning round 2 ( IFF he survives round one…) who is pro-EU.
The 4 of them are at 20% +/- a point or two, and only the top two proceed (per what I’ve read), so anything could happen.
Marine Le Pen impresses me as a French Female Trump in policies.
It is possible that both the Euro and the EU hang on this election. Or nothing could change much.
By Sara Sjolin, MarketWatch
All eyes are on France this week
Investors are nervously counting down to the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday, which has raised worries it may rattle the foundations of the European Union.
Polls are still nail-bitingly tight, so the election result is far from as clear-cut as it has looked in previous years.
The first exit polls from French media are published when the last polling stations close at 8 p.m. Paris time , or 2 p.m. Eastern Time, and should give a fairly accurate picture of which two candidates have won the most support. Those two will compete in a runoff vote on Sunday, May 7 and the winner will become France’s next president.
French law prohibits local media from publishing exit polls before 8 p.m., but indications may leak out earlier Sunday if foreign media carry out their own surveys. The final result usually becomes clear around midnight (6 p.m. Eastern).
The race is effectively down to four candidates, each currently polling at around 20% support. Centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen are the favorites to win the first round and meet in the runoff vote in May.
However, after a late-campaign surge in support for scandal-ridden conservative candidate François Fillon and far-left euroskeptic Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the election is still seen as an open contest.
Read: How to dazzle voters on the campaign trail? Upstart French candidate turns to holograms
“Investors (and French voters) are getting worried about a ‘nightmare’ scenario in which Le Pen faces Mélenchon on 7 May, leaving them with a hard choice between two anti-globalization, anti-EU and pro-Russia candidates,” Citigroup said.
Nightmare, or dreams of Liberté?
For me, those results are tomorrow just before noon. For others, there may be lots of interesting bits “break” while I’m sleeping. So I’m putting up this fairly lite posting as a place to discuss it “while it happens” even if I’m not awake yet or paying attention.