French Election Round One

An open discussion page for the French Election Round One.

Looks like about 2 PM ET or about 11 AM PT for the first exit poll results (on Sunday). After 8 PM Paris time poll closings.

The top 4 candidates include 2 who are quasi-anti-EU. This could encourage a Frexit movement. Then there are two others, including the one given the best chance of winning round 2 ( IFF he survives round one…) who is pro-EU.

The 4 of them are at 20% +/- a point or two, and only the top two proceed (per what I’ve read), so anything could happen.

Marine Le Pen impresses me as a French Female Trump in policies.

It is possible that both the Euro and the EU hang on this election. Or nothing could change much.

https://secure.marketwatch.com/story/when-are-the-french-election-results-out-on-sunday-2017-04-20

By Sara Sjolin, MarketWatch

All eyes are on France this week

Investors are nervously counting down to the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday, which has raised worries it may rattle the foundations of the European Union.

Polls are still nail-bitingly tight, so the election result is far from as clear-cut as it has looked in previous years.

The first exit polls from French media are published when the last polling stations close at 8 p.m. Paris time , or 2 p.m. Eastern Time, and should give a fairly accurate picture of which two candidates have won the most support. Those two will compete in a runoff vote on Sunday, May 7 and the winner will become France’s next president.

French law prohibits local media from publishing exit polls before 8 p.m., but indications may leak out earlier Sunday if foreign media carry out their own surveys. The final result usually becomes clear around midnight (6 p.m. Eastern).
[…]
The race is effectively down to four candidates, each currently polling at around 20% support. Centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen are the favorites to win the first round and meet in the runoff vote in May.

However, after a late-campaign surge in support for scandal-ridden conservative candidate François Fillon and far-left euroskeptic Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the election is still seen as an open contest.

Read: How to dazzle voters on the campaign trail? Upstart French candidate turns to holograms

“Investors (and French voters) are getting worried about a ‘nightmare’ scenario in which Le Pen faces Mélenchon on 7 May, leaving them with a hard choice between two anti-globalization, anti-EU and pro-Russia candidates,”
Citigroup said.

Nightmare, or dreams of Liberté?

For me, those results are tomorrow just before noon. For others, there may be lots of interesting bits “break” while I’m sleeping. So I’m putting up this fairly lite posting as a place to discuss it “while it happens” even if I’m not awake yet or paying attention.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Political Current Events and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

42 Responses to French Election Round One

  1. LG says:

    As of 12:45 Paris Time , turnout is tracking slightly ahead of the 2012 election.

    For those who might be interested, here are some links to some live streams of French TV and Radio:

    EUROPE1:
    http://www.europe1.fr/direct-video

    BFMTV:
    http://www.webmaster-gratuit.com/tele/bfmtv_ie.htm

    LC!:
    http://www.webmaster-gratuit.com/tele/lci.htm

    iTélé:
    http://www.webmaster-gratuit.com/tele/itele.htm

    France 24 (English)

    France 24 (French)

    RT France:

  2. Ian W says:

    A win by Madame Le Pen would be more earth shaking for the EU and the world ‘political establishment’ than Brexit or Trump; especially if she were to win more than 50% of the vote today.

  3. beththeserf says:

    With apologies to Lewis Carroll.

    Beware the Supranational, the
    jaws that bite, the claws that catch…
    One, two! One, two! And through and through,
    the vorpal blade goes snicker-snack.

  4. LG says:

    As of 17:00 H Paris time,
    Estimated 20% abstention.
    Turnout trailing 2012 by 1%.

    As of 11:30 AM eastern US, 2.5 hours from first preliminary results.

  5. beththeserf says:

    Deafening medja silence re current state of play.

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    For several days RT has been running a droll ad for their coverage. It has a review of the various claims that Russia “hacked” the American election and pushed for Trump, then that RT were the agency (with clips of coverage from other news like CNN, MSNBC, etc. pointing the finger at RT and “The Russian propaganda station RT” and such). They then mention that folks are saying they are “Now trying to influence the French election” (all with that Russian ability to do a non-response response where they are stating this stuff as straight claims while not endorsing it – a subtle kind of “Really?” yet not putting it down.)

    Ending with something like “We chose the President of the USA, now see who WE choose for France. RT – coverage begins at…”

    Just loved it. Someone tries to paint them as The All Powerful Oz of News, so what the heck, run with it… play with it even.

    I do have to say that so far (one morning cycle) they have had the best coverage. Lots of folks (like USA stations) not really showing clue (or even awareness; if they DO manage to say “and oh yeah, France is like voting for someone today – it is today isn’t it Jenny?”… The French stations seem to be embargoed from various kinds of coverage until the polls close. Etc. RT at least was showing some “reporters on the street” showing the size of lines of voters…

    They also reported that something like 15% to 20% of French voters were so disappointed at the selection they were either going to not vote at all, or would deliberately “spoil” their ballots as a protest.

    So looks like we’ve got a few more hours until there’s real news in the news from France, and with the race a nail biter, not much they can do with polling data to predict anything, and with a 15% wildcard about who is most pissed and sitting out, this could go in any direction.

    The only one I don’t see as a possible is anyone getting over 50% on the first round. From polling near 20% to over 50% is an error band larger than the quantity polled for that candidate. Hard to see how that could happen without war being declared… or in certain Communist countries and Presidential Dictatorships… but the sitting President isn’t running.

  7. philjourdan says:

    Actually I was thinking that Marine is more like Rand Paul – from very conservative stock (their parents), but with a touch of reality mixed in. A shame she will probably not win. It would give me hope for my ancestral country.

  8. E.M.Smith says:

    I’d love to see a run off between Le Pen and Mélenchon just to watch the Globalists go batshit crazy having no horse in the race and guaranteed a lose… just what mud would they toss, and at whom? As all they do is “fling poo”, having that all bottled up in a constipation fit would likely result in ballistics of the cranial sort… Bang! Splat, glurp….

  9. E.M.Smith says:

    These folks have a report from Belguim (not suject to French reporting gag law) that has Macron in the lead.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/23/french-election-live-results-exit-polls/

    Also found this comment interesting:

    “But that would be to lose sight of the bigger picture – that for the first time since the Fifth Republic was founded in 1958, neither of the two mainstream centre-right and centre-left parties (the Socialists and Republican parties) will have reached the run-off.

    That will another massive sign that – as elections have shown in Austria, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands and Spain in recent times – the traditional centre-ground of European politics is dissolving before our eyes into a ill-defined mish-mash of personality and identity politics.

    In an hour’s time we’ll find out if that is the case in France too.”

  10. Larry Ledwick says:

    Getting breaking news alerts that per exit polls Marine Le Pen is in second place and will be in the second round election.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4437156/Leading-candidates-cast-votes-French-election.html

  11. philjourdan says:

    Drudge is linking to a Youtube for France24 – https://youtu.be/1Ydto3Iyzic

  12. E.M.Smith says:

    France24 via Roku saying Macron at 23.7% and Marine Le pen at 21.7% to make the final round.

    Lots of talk of the Socialists being repudiated (and them saying ~”We’re not dead yet…”) and Hamon disses LePen and pitching his Socialists to Macron.

    Other proEU eurocrats also saying to vote Macron.

  13. E.M.Smith says:

    RT has reports of rallies turning violent. Up to 13 rallies scheduled… one of their reporters caught in teargas (on camera). Film of marchers in the “night of the barricades” preparation looks like a fair number of black hoodies… so likely some antifa clowns unhappy the socialists got dumped and the France First vote was so high.

    So might be interesting news as the night wears on…

  14. E.M.Smith says:

    The Standard Street Theatre of breaking windows by Socislist Brats is in evidence. Why any storefront in any city uses glazing other than lexan is beyond me. 3/4 inch even stops bullets…

    Buy Lexan futures :-)

  15. E.M.Smith says:

    RT reporting “with 30% in” have LePen moving into first place…

  16. Larry Ledwick says:

    Getting the same thing from AP twitter
    The Associated Press‏Verified account @AP 18 minutes ago

    French far-right leader Le Pen claims victory in presidential vote’s 1st round; will face centrist Macron in runoff.

  17. Larry Ledwick says:

    From twitter:
    euronews‏Verified account @euronews 1 minute ago

    1/2 votes (20m) counted in #Frenchelection
    Le Pen: 24.38%
    Macron: 22.19%
    Fillon: 19.63%
    But Macron still seen #1

  18. E.M.Smith says:

    Now at 50% in, LePen at 24% Macron 22%. Per French minister via RT as rural vote comes in.

  19. E.M.Smith says:

    Funny, really. France24 sticking with Macron in the lead with 23.x% trying desperately to avoid putting Le Pen in the lead and hoping Macron pulls back up before they are forced to admit it…

  20. LG says:

    Results as reported by Le Ministere de L’Interieur.

    http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html

    France Entière

    Résultats incomplets calculés sur la base de 66% des inscrits reçus
    résultats au 1er tour
    Liste des candidats Voix % Inscrits % Exprimés
    Mme Marine LE PEN 6 006 278 18,02 23,56
    M. Emmanuel MACRON 5 822 212 17,47 22,84
    M. François FILLON 5 015 672 15,05 19,67
    M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON 4 731 949 14,20 18,56
    M. Benoît HAMON 1 504 674 4,51 5,90
    M. Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN 1 305 668 3,92 5,12
    M. Jean LASSALLE 354 000 1,06 1,39
    M. Philippe POUTOU 299 802 0,90 1,18
    M. François ASSELINEAU 224 617 0,67 0,88
    Mme Nathalie ARTHAUD 180 929 0,54 0,71
    M. Jacques CHEMINADE 47 753 0,14 0,19

  21. E.M.Smith says:

    @75% reported, RT saying tied at 23 – 23 %.

    Looks like a race to the end for the final winner of the symbolic first pkace.

    The big question is what happens in 2 weeks. Will all the folks who voted for Socialists and Republicans vote for Macron More The Same, or Le Pen La Feance?

    It ends up a question of National France vs Globalust EU building block cultural mush.

  22. tom0mason says:

    I wonder who Soros is supporting.

  23. LG says:

    @tom0mason:
    I sure hope you’re just saying that in jest , aren’t you ?
    :D
    I’ll give you 50/1 odds it’s not Marine LePen
    Here’s the Wiki:

    Professional career

    Macron worked as an Inspector of Finances in the French Ministry of Economy between 2004 and 2008. In 2007, he served as deputy rapporteur for the Commission to improve French economic growth headed by Jacques Attali.[8] Macron paid €50,000 to buy himself out of his government contract in 2008,[11] and left to work as an investment banker at a highly-paid position at Rothschild & Cie Banque.[12]

    More here:

    Macron, who made a career as an investment banker at Rothschild & Co before rapidly rising through the ranks in the Socialist Party and becoming the minister of economy, has emerged as a front-runner in the upcoming French presidential elections amid allegations that the wife of The Republicans’ candidate Francois Fillon was fraudulently employed.

    “Macron has been an investment banker at Rothschild bank. He’s only had a professional career within the banking industry. Throughout his career, he has been acting as an agent of the big American banking system. He has never been elected before running as an independent for the presidency, something very rare at this level of politics in France. I think that the guy’s only objective is [fulfilling] his personal ambitions, as he has no intention to pursue his political career if he loses the presidential race,” Dhuicq told Sputnik, adding that according to his knowledge, “the controversial details of his personal life and ties [will] soon become public.

  24. E.M.Smith says:

    @Tom0Mason:

    Good question. Macron had about 20%? of the folks at his event waving EU flags while the rest had French flags. Clearly he supports the Open Society / destroy nations goals… don’t know about the other candidates.

    @All:

    On D.W. they have s 1/2 hour show on Marine Le Pen. Incredible smear job much like was thrown at Trump. Complete with The Russia Smear and comparisons to Trump. Lots of smear by innuendo. Things like we can’t show she is antisemitic, but she knows people who have been accused of it, and of course, the xenophobic slur. One wonders that they haven’t found a way to work in sexist…

    Genman News is surprisingly lock step with The Globalist Agenda… one wonders about the German people.

    So I would say to look for how Soros connects to the German media and politics, then find similar relationships in France, to find the end point politicians…

  25. Jeff says:

    Not a surprise that German news are in step with the globalists, as they are all owned by them. Even “Die Welt”, formerly a conservative outpost in a decidedly libtard journalistic desert, has turned leftist. The comments on the various online editions (Bild, Spiegel, Focus, Stern, etc.) are interesting, as they lean far to the right (i.e. countering the articles’ content), and are sarcastic, ironic, and funny in the extreme. Whoever said that Germans don’t get irony…

    And Weutsche Welle is just an offshoot of our libtard gubmint, kind of our answer to Auntie Beeb. And just like Auntie, it’s gone further and further away from its once-storied beginnings.

    There are conservative authors who write from time to time on the major media (e.g. Klaus Kelle) and there are a number of conservative websites that are not as widely known as, say, Focus. But there are quite a few Deplorables here, despite what the YSM would have folks believe.

  26. Jeff says:

    Soros just dumped €100,000 into a group called “Correctiv”, which is the German version of Corrupt correct the record… So he is actively funding thought-control and “events” (think Antifa) over here… Too bad he hasn’t been picked up by Vlad &co. yet.

  27. E.M.Smith says:

    Well, looks like it will be anti-EU Le Pen vs. pro-EU Macron in 2 weeks.

    All the professional pols are tossing support to Macron in what looks like an “anyone but Marine Le Pen” panic. (Notable exception in the far left socialist who is reserving judgement…)

    To this outsider, it looks like a slow death march for the EU, with things tuning slowly more nationalist with each successive wave of invaders and EU rules. Just so slowly that it might not be this round when it flips. Yet it seems inevitable. The central EU government is so out of touch and insulated (and blinded by ideology) that they can not stop sliding ever more into stupid and abuse of the people, while the people are on a slow walk to ruin and running out of tolerance. Eventually those lines cross, and if not at the ballot box, it will be violent.

    Already, the globalusts are amping up the violence with antifa thugs. Same tactics and black hoodies in Paris as in the anti Trump actions, so clearly “designed and coordinated” internationally. An investigation of antifa under RICO would be enlightening…

  28. tom0mason says:

    @LG says:23 April 2017 at 11:16 pm

    No I’m serious!
    Soros’s nature is to interfere in any nations’ political process and attempt to divert it to the globalist (aka New World Order) cause. It is not below him to attempt to corrupt all sides in France’s current political elections, including Le Pen, to get a better foothold for his globalist political aims.

  29. beththeserf says:

    Soros was to Karl Popper, as Plato was to Socrates, a user and exploiter
    of genuine open-society values to advocate, by trickery, their opposite,
    like ‘ freedom’ is ‘control. ( Ref Karl Popper, ‘The Open Society and its Enemies.’ )

  30. Mike says:

    You might not be able to vote for her, but you can contribute to Le Pen at
    https://www.adhesions-fn.com/fr/public/donate.
    A Europe without an EU is nice to contemplate.

  31. LG says:

    @ Mike:
    Only €0.34 on the Euro actually goes to the campaign after the 66% tax.

  32. tom0mason says:

    Off Topic but…
    Dr Roy Spencer writes —
    “A total of seven shots were fired into our National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) building here at UAH over the weekend. All bullets hit the 4th floor, which is where John Christy’s office is” situated.
    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/04/shots-fired-into-the-christyspencer-building-at-uah/

  33. Another Ian says:

    “Delingpole: Manchurian Candidate Macron Is France’s Obama”

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/04/24/delingpole-manchurian-candidate-macron-frances-obama/

  34. E.M.Smith says:

    @tom0Mason:

    Interesting… I’ll look into it. BTW, we have “tips” for OT notices…

  35. Another Ian says:

    “French Scientist Who Predicted Trump and Brexit Says the Maths Adds up for a Le Pen Victory”

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/04/28/french-physicist-maths-le-pen-victory/

  36. Another Ian says:

    “Le Pen: Macron Is ‘the Arsonist Who Wants to Pretend to Be a Firefighter’”

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/04/28/le-pen-macron-arsonist-wants-pretend-firefighter/

  37. E.M.Smith says:

    Interesting… that arsonist as firefighter jibe just came up on the RT news leadin summary… Looks like a good line gets big legs!

    So, one week of sparring to go until the world changes… the “other media” is rolling out historical holocaust retrospectives and tying in Le Pen’s name, so clearly in smear mode… Expect shouts of “fascist, homophobe, xenophobic,” etc etc… “Sexist” TBD once they figure out an angle to exploit against a woman… maybe roll out her Dad?…

    I can only hope the people of France can be as pissy and unmanageable as their reputation… and give a rousing “Up Yours” to the “establishment”.

  38. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like /pol/ just bit Macron in the butt, they have tracked down money he was hiding in Cayman and denied having (tax evasion?). This is going to blow up in the media immediately before the election.

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/05/breaking-macron-busted-lied-tax-evasion-4chan-pol-posts-images-macrons-off-shore-bank-account/

  39. Larry Ledwick says:

    The Macron leaks have exposed the plans for “managing” Islam in France.
    3 minute video on macron leaks

  40. E.M.Smith says:

    Well, it’s voting time in France. Guess we’ll see what the people of France think of the leaks, the hidden money, the “management” plan, La France…

  41. beththeserf says:

    C’est un difference
    entre la belle France
    et ‘ trial and error,
    messiness and fizz,’
    Brexit-Britain, mais
    j’espere …
    https://beththeserf.wordpress.com/2014/12/19/23rd-edition-serf-under_ground-journal/

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