I must admit, despite consuming Qatari product, I am unfamiliar with the issues surrounding them vs Saudi vs Iran.
Today, on Al Jazeera (A Qatar based news service…) they reported that Turkey has announced support for Qatar. Now doesn’t that stir the pot.
Once again, in a Middle East simmering pot, just who is a what to whom is entirely unclear.
So Qatar is a strong US Ally and we have one of, if not the largest, bases in the area there. The USA has agreed with Saudi on the need to curb Qatari support for, for, well, for someone or something reputed to be sort of terrorist. Saudi is an ally sort of (doesn’t like us to actually BE on their soil, though, and promotes a hard core Wahhabi sect of Islam) but the USA just sold them $Billions or so of military gear and told them to clean up the neighborhood (which includes extirpation of Iranian leaning Shiia in Yemen, it would seem). Qatar has a reputation for being western leaning and tolerant, sort of. But they have bought friendship with “Palestine” via putting housing in Gaza for poor folks (which some think lets Hamas use money for guns instead of houses, or butter…) So is that “support for Hamas” or is that “helping the poor” or is that “anti-Israel”? Doesn’t the USA ship money to both sides? Didn’t we just send some massive $Billions to Iran?
So Saudi and EAE (and maybe some others) have cut off land and air connections to Qatar. Since Qatar uses their airline as a major revenue source, that’s going to hurt. It is also unclear to me what public port facilities exist in Qatar and is that enough to bring in the food and tourists they need to keep things running well. Then there is that whole issue of Gulf Shipping Risk…
Now Saudi is the same Sunni clad as IS / ISIL / ISIS. (Islamic State when bombing places like Iran, “In Levant” when mucking around outside Syria but inside the Middle East, like, oh, Iraq. “In Syria” when blowing up things in Syria. Iran has claimed Saudi is behind the IS attack in Iran. Saudi is also unfond of the Shiia (ruling 10%) in mostly Sunni Syria, so one might think maybe ISIS started as their operation to take down Assad and make Syria a Sunni governed place. Yet Qatar, from what I’ve found so far, looks to be Sunni dominated. I have no idea what Turkey is, as historically they have gone for separation of Mosque and State. (Apparently now, not so much.)
So what’s a fellow to think.
On first glance, it looks like a Sunni / Shia slow war in the making. For decades they lived side by side in some places, but with stresses. One sect dominant in government, the other in labor, in some cases. (Bahrain / Syria as opposite examples). Yet with major fighting at times between countries (Iraq / Iran) and with sporadic bombings of wedding parties and funerals on both sides. (Sunni loving to make a sport of bombing the Shiia on their holy days at their shrines to dead Imams).
Now we have Saudi given the green light to clean up the area, just when Turkey is moving to a more aggressive posture and Iran is flush with money. This has all the makings of a regional Sunni / Shiia war shaping up.
Now I have far too little information to sort this properly, but I’m going to speculate anyway. To me, it looks like Iran was busy pissing in every punchbowl it could find. From the PLO to Hamas to Hezbollah to… Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, … Then, The O (my God…) gave them $BILLIONS as a wet kiss make nice. All the more to pot stir with. The Democrats got Trumped, and now we’ve thrown some $Billions around with The House Of Saud. And offered them a free hand cleaning up the neighborhood. Turkey finally has managed to let go of their move toward Western Secular and is being steered back toward the old Ottoman Religious Empire. The minor States have been largely doing “duck and cover” to avoid being collateral damage (some, like UAE, better than others, like Yemen).
To me it looks like a “3 Way” race to establish the New Caliphate. Turkey with memories of past glories looking to get the home turf locked down, then expand into Syria (thus eliminating their “Kurdish Problem”) and perhaps beyond. Iran desiring to work via subterfuge to destabilize things on the Sunni edge and more remote places around the world. Not being quite so into the whole Caliphate thing (it’s a Sunni gig) but wanting effective control. Then Saudi looking to become Top Gun in the Gulf, clean up their “buffer States” (and perhaps make some satraps in the process).
Now IS, a potential Saudi tool, has poked the Iranian Parliament in the nose and Turkey has just stood on a few Saudi toes in Qatar. So what’s the relationship between Turkey (a NATO member and marginally a US Ally…) and Iran? I don’t know, but with so much being under the covers and false flags, “who knows” is likely all that can be stated as fact.
So now we’ve got a “3 Way” war shaping up where the USA is obligated via NATO to back Turkey, but has the major regional base in Qatar, and is backing Saudi in the clear. Oh what a pile of ‘Corn Flakes’ in the making. (Look up “CF”…) And that is even ignoring all the lines of stress connecting Israel to this mess. One can only hope that Israel can keep their head down and their Iron Dome up through the “diplomacy by other means” going on around them.
When will western politicians learn that THE worst thing they can do for their legacy or their reputation is attempt to solve “The The Middle East Problem”. It has been going on since Israel vs Philistines thousands of years back. It will never be solved. You can’t solve blood feuds that have entered the cultural base of the peoples involved. At best you can get a temporary truce. At worse, one side wipes out the other. Yet it seems every US President must try, compelled by some inner Ego-daemon to show they have what it takes and can do the impossible.
Heck, I’d be happy if they could just list who is on what side. Don’t try to win the game. Don’t try to be the coach to the teams. Don’t try to referee it, even. Just make the program flier that tells me who is on what team and, if that isn’t enough to feel important, sell some hotdogs and popcorn. But certainly do NOT enter the game field. You will just end up broken during play.
So what is going to happen next? I have no idea.
Turkey is the big tuna with lots of military, but not as much oil and far from the field of play in the Gulf. Well positioned on sea lanes and a key transit point, with a large economy and population.
Saudi has the oil and money, but is short of bodies and guns (shipment arriving “soon” though). Poor ocean capacity and difficult terrain, but with the world’s best military on speed dial, it seems.
Iran has the bodies, the arms industry, enough money, and the motivation; but is isolated from the international stage.
Watching from the sidelines at the moment is Egypt with the largest population and 2nd largest economy of the region. Also watching, all the ‘minor States’, trying to decide which umbrella to hide under. (Minor note on Boko Haram: Killed about 20,000 so far in their attempt at making the African Caliphate. Unclear if they are part of this process or trying to be an independent. Franchise or start up?)
USA in “on side” with Saudi, and via treaty with Turkey
Russia is “on side” with Iran and Syria (government)
The Euro-Globalists are desperately trying to prevent USA / Russia relationships from improving
Soros having motivated Color Revolutions across much of the Muslim game board, now has Trump in his sites and hates Putin too.
This just really feels like the lead in to W.W.I with folks forming up into support chains and one “fire in the hole” to make it all go up… while we have fire in Syria, Yemen, etc. etc. already. Soros would just love to have a “Let’s You and Him fight, I’ll hold your coat” moment with Putin and Trump… Russia and USA. Two strong Nations not signed up for his Globalist extirpation of difference and National Cultures. So add in a Pyromaniac running around lighting things on fire in the region too.
In the past I would wonder why there was so much instability in the world. Oh So Slowly I’ve come to understand why. The Great Game. Petty small people in positions of large power and influence working to upset the plans of folks on the other side. If you can’t make yourself better, you can at least make your neighbor worse. Sociopaths and Psychopaths trying to destroy others so they can feel like they win. They run governments while the rest of us just want to make life better for everyone in our neighborhood, since we all rise or fall together. Them not so much.
No, I have no conclusions today. All I have at the moment is the “Problem Admiration” stage.