Qatar – A Wider Disturbance In Force

I must admit, despite consuming Qatari product, I am unfamiliar with the issues surrounding them vs Saudi vs Iran.

Today, on Al Jazeera (A Qatar based news service…) they reported that Turkey has announced support for Qatar. Now doesn’t that stir the pot.

Once again, in a Middle East simmering pot, just who is a what to whom is entirely unclear.

So Qatar is a strong US Ally and we have one of, if not the largest, bases in the area there. The USA has agreed with Saudi on the need to curb Qatari support for, for, well, for someone or something reputed to be sort of terrorist. Saudi is an ally sort of (doesn’t like us to actually BE on their soil, though, and promotes a hard core Wahhabi sect of Islam) but the USA just sold them $Billions or so of military gear and told them to clean up the neighborhood (which includes extirpation of Iranian leaning Shiia in Yemen, it would seem). Qatar has a reputation for being western leaning and tolerant, sort of. But they have bought friendship with “Palestine” via putting housing in Gaza for poor folks (which some think lets Hamas use money for guns instead of houses, or butter…) So is that “support for Hamas” or is that “helping the poor” or is that “anti-Israel”? Doesn’t the USA ship money to both sides? Didn’t we just send some massive $Billions to Iran?

So Saudi and EAE (and maybe some others) have cut off land and air connections to Qatar. Since Qatar uses their airline as a major revenue source, that’s going to hurt. It is also unclear to me what public port facilities exist in Qatar and is that enough to bring in the food and tourists they need to keep things running well. Then there is that whole issue of Gulf Shipping Risk…

Now Saudi is the same Sunni clad as IS / ISIL / ISIS. (Islamic State when bombing places like Iran, “In Levant” when mucking around outside Syria but inside the Middle East, like, oh, Iraq. “In Syria” when blowing up things in Syria. Iran has claimed Saudi is behind the IS attack in Iran. Saudi is also unfond of the Shiia (ruling 10%) in mostly Sunni Syria, so one might think maybe ISIS started as their operation to take down Assad and make Syria a Sunni governed place. Yet Qatar, from what I’ve found so far, looks to be Sunni dominated. I have no idea what Turkey is, as historically they have gone for separation of Mosque and State. (Apparently now, not so much.)

So what’s a fellow to think.

On first glance, it looks like a Sunni / Shia slow war in the making. For decades they lived side by side in some places, but with stresses. One sect dominant in government, the other in labor, in some cases. (Bahrain / Syria as opposite examples). Yet with major fighting at times between countries (Iraq / Iran) and with sporadic bombings of wedding parties and funerals on both sides. (Sunni loving to make a sport of bombing the Shiia on their holy days at their shrines to dead Imams).

Now we have Saudi given the green light to clean up the area, just when Turkey is moving to a more aggressive posture and Iran is flush with money. This has all the makings of a regional Sunni / Shiia war shaping up.

Now I have far too little information to sort this properly, but I’m going to speculate anyway. To me, it looks like Iran was busy pissing in every punchbowl it could find. From the PLO to Hamas to Hezbollah to… Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, … Then, The O (my God…) gave them $BILLIONS as a wet kiss make nice. All the more to pot stir with. The Democrats got Trumped, and now we’ve thrown some $Billions around with The House Of Saud. And offered them a free hand cleaning up the neighborhood. Turkey finally has managed to let go of their move toward Western Secular and is being steered back toward the old Ottoman Religious Empire. The minor States have been largely doing “duck and cover” to avoid being collateral damage (some, like UAE, better than others, like Yemen).

To me it looks like a “3 Way” race to establish the New Caliphate. Turkey with memories of past glories looking to get the home turf locked down, then expand into Syria (thus eliminating their “Kurdish Problem”) and perhaps beyond. Iran desiring to work via subterfuge to destabilize things on the Sunni edge and more remote places around the world. Not being quite so into the whole Caliphate thing (it’s a Sunni gig) but wanting effective control. Then Saudi looking to become Top Gun in the Gulf, clean up their “buffer States” (and perhaps make some satraps in the process).

Now IS, a potential Saudi tool, has poked the Iranian Parliament in the nose and Turkey has just stood on a few Saudi toes in Qatar. So what’s the relationship between Turkey (a NATO member and marginally a US Ally…) and Iran? I don’t know, but with so much being under the covers and false flags, “who knows” is likely all that can be stated as fact.

So now we’ve got a “3 Way” war shaping up where the USA is obligated via NATO to back Turkey, but has the major regional base in Qatar, and is backing Saudi in the clear. Oh what a pile of ‘Corn Flakes’ in the making. (Look up “CF”…) And that is even ignoring all the lines of stress connecting Israel to this mess. One can only hope that Israel can keep their head down and their Iron Dome up through the “diplomacy by other means” going on around them.

When will western politicians learn that THE worst thing they can do for their legacy or their reputation is attempt to solve “The The Middle East Problem”. It has been going on since Israel vs Philistines thousands of years back. It will never be solved. You can’t solve blood feuds that have entered the cultural base of the peoples involved. At best you can get a temporary truce. At worse, one side wipes out the other. Yet it seems every US President must try, compelled by some inner Ego-daemon to show they have what it takes and can do the impossible.

Heck, I’d be happy if they could just list who is on what side. Don’t try to win the game. Don’t try to be the coach to the teams. Don’t try to referee it, even. Just make the program flier that tells me who is on what team and, if that isn’t enough to feel important, sell some hotdogs and popcorn. But certainly do NOT enter the game field. You will just end up broken during play.

So what is going to happen next? I have no idea.

Turkey is the big tuna with lots of military, but not as much oil and far from the field of play in the Gulf. Well positioned on sea lanes and a key transit point, with a large economy and population.

Saudi has the oil and money, but is short of bodies and guns (shipment arriving “soon” though). Poor ocean capacity and difficult terrain, but with the world’s best military on speed dial, it seems.

Iran has the bodies, the arms industry, enough money, and the motivation; but is isolated from the international stage.

Watching from the sidelines at the moment is Egypt with the largest population and 2nd largest economy of the region. Also watching, all the ‘minor States’, trying to decide which umbrella to hide under. (Minor note on Boko Haram: Killed about 20,000 so far in their attempt at making the African Caliphate. Unclear if they are part of this process or trying to be an independent. Franchise or start up?)

USA in “on side” with Saudi, and via treaty with Turkey
Russia is “on side” with Iran and Syria (government)
The Euro-Globalists are desperately trying to prevent USA / Russia relationships from improving
Soros having motivated Color Revolutions across much of the Muslim game board, now has Trump in his sites and hates Putin too.

This just really feels like the lead in to W.W.I with folks forming up into support chains and one “fire in the hole” to make it all go up… while we have fire in Syria, Yemen, etc. etc. already. Soros would just love to have a “Let’s You and Him fight, I’ll hold your coat” moment with Putin and Trump… Russia and USA. Two strong Nations not signed up for his Globalist extirpation of difference and National Cultures. So add in a Pyromaniac running around lighting things on fire in the region too.

In the past I would wonder why there was so much instability in the world. Oh So Slowly I’ve come to understand why. The Great Game. Petty small people in positions of large power and influence working to upset the plans of folks on the other side. If you can’t make yourself better, you can at least make your neighbor worse. Sociopaths and Psychopaths trying to destroy others so they can feel like they win. They run governments while the rest of us just want to make life better for everyone in our neighborhood, since we all rise or fall together. Them not so much.

No, I have no conclusions today. All I have at the moment is the “Problem Admiration” stage.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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24 Responses to Qatar – A Wider Disturbance In Force

  1. pearce m. schaudies says:

    These two backgrounders by Moon of Alabama provide some insight. Mainly these grudges go back generations, and Saudi families not on throne probably egging clown prince into letting his alligator mouth overload his hummingbird ass again haha.

    Pearce M. Schaudies.
    Minister of Future
    Falling Skys &
    Wolves at Door

  2. pearce m. schaudies says:


  3. Larry Ledwick says:

    What we don’t and probably won’t know is what sort of provocations have been going on behind the curtain. In a blood feud culture, and a monarchy which recently changed kings after the death of Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud in 2015, I am sure that there has been a lot of court intrigue going on in Saudi Arabia and likewise maneuvering going on by other regional powers. It would not surprise me if Qatar has been involved in undercover operations inside SA for their own benefit and in association with the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran which they are closely affiliated with.

    At the time they built the massive Al Udeid Air Base, which is a joint U.S.-British base there were those that suggested that it was a simple effort to buy US protection by Qatar. Its existance gives both the US and the British a vested interest in protecting their country. It also on a different level could be an ideal opportunity to spy on US and British operations in the region for both the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran, as I am sure the base has many locals working on base. Just like the VC often had operatives working on the major US bases in base support activities to gather intelligence about US operations in the Vietnam war.

    Cui Bono we see that both Turkey and Iran have asserted that they will break the blockade to provide essential supplies to Qatar, that pretty clearly shows that Qatar must provide some significant benefit to both those countries (or be a valuable base of operations that they want to keep open).

    Since the Arab Spring the local alliances and relationships between all these states have been completely re-ordered, especially after Egypt tossed out the Muslim Brotherhood.

  4. pearce m. schaudies says:

    Who was behind Tehran attacks? probably KSA, emboldened by Trump visit. If the clown prince throws sand in too many faces, there will be a palace coup.

    NB- the Muslim Brotherhood, while promoting strict Islam, is not fanatical, and holds elections, not favored by hereditary family monarchies, heh.

    Pearce M. Schaudies.
    Minister of Future
    Falling Skys &
    Wolves at Door

  5. David A says:

    The MB is a terrorist organization in wide spread support of Jihad, by any and all means.

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    I presume KSA is Kingdom of Saudi Arabia…

  7. Larry Ledwick says:

    from twitter:
    Al Jazeera News‏Verified account @AJENews 3 hours ago

    BREAKING: Al Jazeera Media Network under cyber attack on all systems, websites & social media platforms. More soon:

  8. Graeme No.3 says:

    Turkey is majority Sunni (~70%) with Alevi (Shia offshoot) about 25%. The Kurdish minority is nominally Sunni. Turks drink Raki because the Koran doesn’t mention spirits, only forbids beer and wine (with a let out). Traditionally the Kurds are fairly lax in that regard.

    Turkey in combination with Iran is weird from a religious (and historical) viewpoint, although neither are Arab.

  9. Zeke says:

    Chief says, “Turkey…historically they have gone for separation of Mosque and State. (Apparently now, not so much.)”

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel was in the process of fast-tracking Turkey into EU membership just before Brexit. Since then Erdogan not only lurched the country towards stricter Islamic rule but has also held a vote which removed the scant existing “constitutional” restrictions on his powers. So this is another I told you so moment in history from UKIP. There are sadly far too many of those.Gerard Batten:

    Erdogan’s dictatorship vote underlines the folly of MPs who supported Turkey’s EU accession – Batten, dur. 2min 12sec

    PS EM says, “…Russia and USA. Two strong Nations not signed up for his Globalist extirpation of difference and National Cultures.”
    I watched a Hillsdale College lecture about Putin’s Presidency and he did say, like EM, that he is an outlier and pariah (not exact quote) wrt the Globalist schemes against nation-states.

  10. pearce m. schaudies says:

    Your laundry is dirtier than mine, heh. Turky ‘training’ troops should arrive today. Qatar FM visit RU tomorrow. Yeah, KSA short for Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

    Pearce M. Schaudies.
    Minister of Future
    Falling Skys &
    Wolves at Door

  11. Julian Jones says:

    May’s snap election gamble set to backfire
    Exit poll puts majority in doubt as Tories fail to win target seats in early returns

  12. pearce m. schaudies says:

    More details on Turkey military support for Qatar.

    Pearce M. Schaudies.
    Minister of Future
    Falling Skys &
    Wolves at Door

  13. pearce m. schaudies says:

    Qatar update, more insights …

    Pearce M. Schaudies.
    Minister of Future
    Falling Skys &
    Wolves at Door

  14. bob sykes says:

    In Iraq we are fighting ISIS and the Sunni Arabs on the side of Iran and the Shia Arabs. In Syria we are fighting Iran, Hezbollah and the Shia Arabs on the side of ISIS and the Sunni Arabs. We just did another bombing raid against the Syrian Arab Army to defend ISIS.

    If we are that confused, how can anyone make any sense out of what the Turks, Saudis, Egyptians or Qataris are doing?

  15. M Simon says:


    This will clarify things for you.

    One of my little ditties.

  16. M Simon says:

    Let me try again.

    For Bob Sykes:

    shovelhead Jun 5, 2017 3:23 PM

    That [snip!] whole place will never make sense because they switch sides faster than you can untangle the yarn.

    Backstabbing is the ME’s National sport.

    If you have 3 Arabs, you’ll have 5 separate plots going on.

    In that regard may I suggest Seven Pillars of Wisdom – Laurence pdf

    How Arabs behave is also detailed in the “Seven Pillars”. It matches the above comment. Which means nothing fundamental has changed in 100 years.

    [ Reply: F-bombs route to trash. Get found months later. Try leaving them out… -Mod ]

  17. M Simon says:

    pearce m. schaudies,

    The Muslim Brotherhood is not fanatical. They supported the Germans in WW2. Charming.

  18. M Simon says:

    pearce m. schaudies says:
    8 June 2017 at 4:30 pm

    Funny – none of the “experts” at the links you provided mention what is driving the current situation. The Israeli-Europe gas pipeline. I discuss that diver here:

  19. pearce m. schaudies says:

    @M Simon. I meant fanatical like ISIS. They promote their version of Islam by voting, which royal ruling families hate. I just read where in WW2 they supported germany in Egypt by trying to overthrow British colonial rule. You are aware that several US and Brit banks helped Germany before and during WW2? all the angels died with the founding of Federal Reserve, heh.

    Pearce M. Schaudies.
    Minister of Future
    Falling Skys &
    Wolves at Door

  20. pearce m. schaudies says:

    Heres another interesting perspective on the Qatari- Saudi Cold War …

    Pearce M. Schaudies.
    Minister of Future
    Falling Skys &
    Wolves at Door

  21. philjourdan says:

    YOu missed the important part – what initiated this 3 way race. But I think you already know that answer. Power vacuums have unintended consequences, and this is all on O (my God).

  22. Ralph B says:

    Having spent 10 years in Qatar, leaving in 2013 and worked on Al Udeid, the Qataris are not strong US allies. Ever since the Emir abdicated things went down hill. Rumors were “The Long Beards” aka fundamentalists drove him out. The Qatari government made it very difficult at times, stopping basic services (mail, laundry) for petty reasons.

  23. Larry Ledwick says:

    @Ralph B
    This article has some interesting observations about Qatar and that change in governance.

  24. M Simon says:

    pearce m. schaudies says:
    9 June 2017 at 1:19 pm

    The Mufti of Jerusalem was promoted by the Brits in the 20s to oppose Jews in Israel. He sided with the Germans in WW2. As did the Moslem Brotherhood.


    BTW it is my opinion that the war in Syria is over. What is going on now is jockeying for position as we saw in Korea from 1952 to 1954.

    In Korea it took over 6 months (longer?) to get the conference seating arrangements together. In this case there is a harder deadline – the Israeli/Europe gas pipeline.

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