Tips – July 2017

About “Tips”:

While I’m mostly interested in things having to do with:

Making money, usually via trading
Weather and climate (“Global Warming” & “Climate Change”)
Quakes, Volcanoes, and other Earth Sciences
Current economic and political events
(often as those last three have impact on the first one…)
And just about any ‘way cool’ interesting science or technology

If something else is interesting you put a “tip” here as you like.

You can also look at the list of “Categories” on the right hand side and get an idea of any other broad area of interest.

This ought not to be seen as a “limit” on what is “interesting”, more as a “focus list” with other things that are interesting being fair game as well.

The History:

Note that “pages” are the things reached from links on the top bar just under the pretty picture. “Postings” are reached from the listing along the right side of any given article (posting).

Since WordPress has decided that comments on Pages, like the Old Tips Pages, won’t show up in recent comments, it kind of breaks the value of it for me. In response, I shifted from a set of “pages” to a set of “postings”. As any given Tips Posting gets full, I’ll add a new one.

I have kept the same general format, with the T page (top bar) still pointing to both the archive of Tips Pages as well as the series of new Postings via a link to the TIPS category.

This is the next posting from prior Tips postings as they had gotten so large it was taking a long time to load. Same idea, just a new set of space to put pointers to things of interest. The most immediately preceding Tips posting is:

The generic “T” parent page remains up top, where older copies of the various “Tips” pages can be found archived. The Tips category (see list at right) marks Tips postings for easy location.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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165 Responses to Tips – July 2017

  1. jim2 says:

    EMS, take note:

    “Your place or mine? Texas liberals and California conservatives swap states”

  2. jim2 says:

    Forbush decrease frequency vs. sunspot #:

  3. jim2 says:

    Or, maybe you will want to stay there …

    “Texas Poised to Integrate More Wind, Solar Energy”

  4. jim2 says:

    The links to the papers in the wind/solar article are interesting. They seem to understand the problems with frequency maintenance.

  5. hillrj says:

    EM: Why is gold price and stock volatility so low, when there seems to be trouble all around?

  6. E.M.Smith says:


    Volatility is lowest at tops., highest at bottoms. It is a general property..


    Texans are not above “Subsidy Farming” and any other source of collecting money from the Stupid in the Federal Apparatus… I’m pretty sure I’m

  7. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting materials science (man made stone catagory)

    Scientists say they have figured out how Roman Concrete gets stronger with age rather than deteriorating like modern portland cement.

    They left out one detail, modern construction grade concrete has reinforcing steel in it which in these conditions corrodes and expands as it rusts breaking apart the concrete it is imbedded in.

    To my knowledge the Romans used no reinforcement rods of any kind.

    It does raise the interesting question if the Roman concrete recipe were adapted to modern applications with a non-corroding reinforcement method like glass fiber (which I know has been experimented with) and stainless steel re-bar which is also began being used in highly corrosive environments where its longer service life pays for the higher up front cost.

  8. Larry Ledwick says:

    Related to the above:

    EM has already discussed this non-steel rebar

    Note here recent green efforts to shut down coal fired power plants means limited access to fly ash used in modern concrete. File this under unanticipated consequences.

  9. Larry Ledwick says:

    Method of placement is also important to its durability. Modern concrete is rated by its “slump” when wet. Very dry still low slump mixes make stronger concrete but they do not work well with simple pouring and rodding or vibrating to get the air out.

  10. Another Ian says:


    This day’s Murdoch

    “Radical new plan to remove ‘incapacitated’ President Trump”

    By the comments expect more heads exploding IMO

  11. pearce m. schaudies says:

    Hi Chief. this is regards your last post on the June tips.

    Based on your comment about motivation it sounds like you need to come up with some more Holy Grail Quests. And the level of frustration you express at beating your head against the wall also suggest the midlife crisis turning point that a lot of people experience about this time In their lives.

    I grew up in Texas and participated in the Cub Scout, Boy Scout, Explorer Scout programs, and you sound like a good scout. The things I have seen in America since then have convinced me that the dark side has slowly taken over since about the time of Kennedys assassination and Nixon got in office. You cannot continue to struggle against them by online statements cos if you get a following and high enough profile you could have an accident. Better to join a sympathetic lodge or fraternal organization and run for local office. And if you see the opportunity to do a little Anonymous sabotage like putting sand in the crankcase or sugar in the gasoline by all means feel free haha.

    You might also consider taking up target practice with a pistol at some gun club or bow and arrow target practice at a different Club.

    Minister of Future

  12. pearce m. schaudies says:

    Short fiction sites, mabe 30 min each story. Good time- wasters. Enjoy …

    Minister of Future

  13. jim2 says:

    I just heard a guy on TV referring to the new electric car “Easy” priced at $30,000 as “affordable.” On what planet???

  14. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    Just part of the Color Revolution formula. On my list of “yet to be finished” posts is one about the architecture of Color Revolutions. Yes, they have a play book for them. This is one of the pages… The short form is foment social chaos, riots, etc. etc., then blame the Executive, then make a movement to remove them (ballot, impeachment, whatever).

    What they are not appreciating is that the backers of Trump will not let that happen.


    The Romans used fired clay pots are reinforcing. Those big expanse covering domes were made with thin sections between thick (like window in a frame) and then inside the concrete they had little round pots embedded. All to make it stronger and lighter.

    On the cinders: I had to laugh at the “sand shortage” and “running out of sand” story a week or two back. Never seen the Sahara, eh? They went to great length to assert there was “special” sand needed for concrete, and that we were using it faster than nature was replacing it, so there must be a shortage… someday… No mention of actual amounts known to exit. Oh, but sea level rise is going to cover all the beaches and their sand… (As though nobody knows how to use a dredge…) Then there was that point about “Cinder Blocks” being made from cinders… Guess they didn’t think much about the name.

    When I was a kid, we used to go play out at the river. The local cement and sand and gravel plant was located there. Rock crushers and all. Guess they never heard of rock crushers either… Oh No! We’re going to run out of rocks!!! (Not!) So they would dredge and dig up acres of historic river deposits, wash and sort them by size, and then crush the bits that were bigger than desired. Plant is still there, 1/2 century later, last time I looked. River keeps bringing more…

    I’ve made cement and concrete mixes. Starting about 7 with my Dad when we put a floor in the horse shed and made it a garage. Used all sorts of sand. Nothing special needed. Now to make a particular specification of concrete, you do need materials that meet the spec, but one can also design for a different specification of materials… Guess that didn’t rise to their attention either. Wattle & Daub all the say to Stucco and poured concrete to cinderblocks and even various engineered materials, like geopolymer. All not considered… Oh Well.

    Romans discovered that volcanic cinders made the best cement, and exploited that. Now we burn the rocks ourselves to make the same stuff. Guess we avoided “running out of volcanoes” too ;-)


    No “midlife crisis”. I don’t do crisis. FWIW, I’ve had similar “episodes” of “now what?” at various times in my life when I’ve realized either “It’s over, I’ve finished {whatever}” or “It is fruitless, so what’s the point now?” once realizing it is a dead end. Things like graduating college as a “finished, now what?” or deciding to let go of the “Become a Medical Doctor” in my 3rd? year of college. (I made the ‘mistake’ of hanging out at the Medical School – picking up some Med School credits in the process and learning to draw blood – it’s a long story involving NASA… Along the way was also working in hospitals. Realized: 1) Hospitals are dismal places to spend your life. 2) Everyone in Med School was hyper-motivated either by an extreme love of medicine or of money, and I was not that driven by either.) So realizing that the path I’d been set on by “others” in High School was “not for me”, started a quest for a new path. Since those were not “midlife crisis” events, don’t see how a much more minor questioning of goals and motivations now can be anything close.

    Basically, it’s more like the traditional “quarterly review” of projects as Director where I’d question just what projects were being done, what resources they took, and was it worth it compared to other needs. They may be fun and interesting projects, but are they productive enough to matter?

    FWIW, I’m “NASA Certified” as not doing emotional crisis… I was in a program that required selecting folks who could take stress for 3.5 months and not “lose it”. Certified sane, balanced, and having “the right stuff”. Our program set the psych profile used to select shuttle astronauts and those for the Space Station. Able to handle long duration locked in a can (or box) and not have an emotional issue… Waking up every 4 hours around the clock to fly flight simulators (simulated emergency abandon station) and even draw blood in the dark (7 watt red dark room bulb was it, they didn’t want light to change the blood gasses…) When you can be placid doing an emergency landing while awake all of 2 minutes and then draw blood in the dark, well, not much gets you worked up…

    I do sometimes wonder what it is like for other people where emotion comes first, then they rationalize afterwards. For me, it’s all reason and logic first, middle, and usually last. Then a minor echo of some emotional state, like mild disappointment or personal satisfaction. Yeah, I’ve been frequently called a “cold fish”… so I had to learn to “display” stronger emotional state so people would be more accepting. But really, once you realize life is a terminal condition and nobody gets out of it alive, what’s left to worry about? I realized that about 5 years old… So “enjoy the ride” and “just don’t screw up too badly” is about as close to my “motivation” as you can get.

    Oh, and also FWIW, I’ve had this “pause and review” a few times now over the years of this blog. Usually after about a month, sometimes two, The Warmistas get back to slugging and doing their “Fling Poo!” and I realize it isn’t over and I’m not done… So check back in about September or October and we’ll see if that particular timer has gone off … again. I have enough “1/2 done” postings to fill at list that long into the future, so no shortage of stuff even if I just decided to clear the queue and not find new stuff.

    Per ranges: Well, I have a target dummy (left by my future son-in-law) in the back yard and can just take my bow out and shoot it if I wanted. But I don’t want. I’m already a good enough shot, and don’t see the point of wasting time with it. I have no emotional connection to shooting, it is just a mechanical art worth being good at doing. Guns at the junk range can be fun, but it’s more hassle to get there and do it, and costs too much, for the fun it gives. I’d rather spend time recovering my garden. Think Zen… that gets you “targeted” on what I like to do… A sand garden would be more interesting to me than shooting a dummy or tin cans.

    Oh, and per “sugared gas” or sand and oil: I simply can not condone such things. Either the real act or as a metaphor for sabotage of another side’s political movement. Just not in me. The car is innocent. Damage is a waste. Why waste a valuable construction that is not at fault? I abhor waste and damage to innocents (even objects) at a very strong level. If there is evil, then exactly and only that evil needs to be confronted, preferably directly and in full light of day. Yeah, I’m lousy at subterfuge… I was raised with the old traditional British Sense Of Fair Play and all… Now with that in mind, and remember I’m in California: There is no way at all I could even get on the ballot, never mind the election, given that I’m representative of about 1% of the California population, politically, and I’m not good at lying for political gain nor am I good at being charismatic. So that whole Politics angle just isn’t going to work.

    But no worries. I’m not planning any change this year. Just a slow spot as I “work while the weather is nice for it”.

  15. Another Ian says:

    “Bit of an ‘itch! Bit of an ‘itch!” as one of the oldies around here used to say.

    “I, For One, Welcome Our New Self-Driving Overlords”

  16. jim2 says:

    About wind farms in Texas. Could it possibly be political? …. naw … /sarc

    “Out here at the Twisted J Ranch, you know, we’ve always primarily been a cow and horse operation. Here about five years ago, the wind power companies came in and they set up these windmills. It’s been really good. It’s been a good partnership. It’s helped out the bottom line, you know, with the cost of feed and the cost of hay, just the cost of doing business in this day and time.

  17. pearce m. schaudies says:

    Chief says- Yeah, I’ve been frequently called a “cold fish”… so I had to learn to “display” stronger emotional state so people would be more accepting. 

    *Growing up, people always said I was too serious about everything. I guess that was polite for cold fish haha. Anyway I did discover, like you, that I can mimic an appropriate response to an expanded emotional state and get more response back, and fit into the group. Getting the responses calibrated took several years between 12 and 17 haha. Just like the little kid in the movie AI.

    Minister of Future

  18. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well this is going to get interesting, CNN has pissed off /pol/
    From Twitter:
    Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸‏Verified account @JackPosobiec 19m19 minutes ago

    /pol/ has declared war on CNN

    Seems that CNN is threatening a 15 year old for memes he has produced

    Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸‏Verified account @JackPosobiec 28 minutes ago

    8chan just doxxed every CNN host #CNNBlackmail

  19. David A says:

    Not a tip, just a general question. I was talking to my brother at the family gathering. today. He is fairly into the claim of central bankers ruling for decafes controling the destinies of nationa. These families, such as the Rothchilds, are the backers of foreighn policy; such as taking out any heads of state who threaten the petro dollar or to in anyway go to a gold standard as apparentl Gadaffi talked about.

    This evil bankers behind it all appears to me to be to much Zero hedge stuff. ( like some facts with conclusions that go a bridge or two to far) I have no problem believing in National and international power struggles over assets, finance etc, but I simply fail to see even who these people are, what assets they have, what their net worth is, etc…

    So my question is does this conspiracy of central bank famlies have any legs, and who runs\owns the federal reserve, what is their wealth, power etc…?

  20. tom0mason says:

    FYI currently active volcanoes

  21. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    Like that comment about Mann and contempt of court :-)

    @David A:

    Well, it’s “complicated”… This quasi explains it

    The Fed is “owned” by the member banks, but they can’t sell it… they get a 6% return…

    So to know ultimate ownership, you need to look at who owns those banks.

    In general, it comes down to folks who see fractional reserve banking as immoral, vs folks who see it as a way to allow banks to make 30 year loans based on demand deposits and need to smooth out the velocity of money.

    If you eliminated it, either you return to bank runs causing collapses, or your bank savings account consists only of 30 year bonds that can’t be cashed out early. Most people like checking accounts, money markets, and savings without a year notice required to withdraw funds…

    In general, I think it is a workable cludge that just happens to make multi Billionaires out of the Rockefellers, Morgans, Chases, etc. etc. But I can’t see a cleanly better way. Having politicians control the central banks generally ends in hyperinflation within decades… see Venezuela and Argentina as resent examples.

  22. E.M.Smith says:


    Oh God, CNN thought they were taking down a dirty old Trumper, and now are caught outing and harassing a kid… talk about PR Nightmare! I need more snacks and drinks for that show…

    I suspect an endless number of new CNN Memes are in the works already…

  23. philjourdan says:

    @Larry – CNN does seem to do one thing well. – INsert foot into mouth.

  24. jim2 says:

    “Sci-Hub ‘Pirate Bay for scientists’ sued by American Chemical Society over cloned site”

  25. Larry Ledwick says:

    More on CNN from twitter:

    Stefan Molyneux‏Verified account @StefanMolyneux 10h10 hours ago
    Are you currently an able-bodied shitposter?
    You have been drafted into the next great meme war.


    Smyth Radio liked
    Julian Assange‏ @JulianAssange 15h15 hours ago
    Replying to @JulianAssange

    CNN just committed a crime violating § 135.60 of the New York criminal code “coercion”

  26. Larry Ledwick says:

    More on twitter:
    Dirt Man of Kekistan‏ @yahboiDirtMan

    4chan has declared war upon CNN,and soon others will follow Operation:Autism Storm will be the beginning of the next Meme War

  27. Another Ian says:

    Re Volvo’s all electric cars announcement

  28. Larry Ledwick says:

    Venezuela is down to about $10 billion in reserves, about time to start the count down clock to default “only 257 days remaining until default”

  29. philjourdan says:

    Seriously, is stupid a requirement for reporters and alarmists?

    Scientists say the iceberg will be titanic — roughly the size of Delaware — and could melt at a rapid rate, causing sea levels to rise. Its location could also pose a hazard to maritime traffic.

    It is an effing ICEBERG! It cannot cause sea levels to rise! It displaces a much water as it holds!

  30. pouncer says:

    “iceberg…could melt at a rapid rate, causing sea levels to rise.”

    What if it melts, slowly? Then the sea levels would be okay? How fast is “rapid” and how slow would have no consequences?

    How deep is Delaware, by the way? The steamship Titanic and icebergs are measured in cubic units while the only information I can find about Delaware gives me square units. It’s a puzzle. Can you tell the tons-displacement of Delaware, or this iceberg of which you speak?

    ANNNDDDD I had been completely oblivious to the amount of crucial maritime traffic in the vicinity of Argentina and the Falklands. What sorts of commodities are at risk of price rises if this traffic had to be re routed, perhaps via the newly-expanded Panama canal? Should I invest in alternative commodities, or short-sell companies that depend on that traffic. Tell me more about this “traffic” you seem to be concerned over.

    Going to the issue of communicating with stupid — sometimes the best way may be just to roll with it. Go Socratic. You seem to have knowledge that I don’t seem to share. Let us explore what it is that you think you know.

  31. Larry Ledwick says:

    Not sure if any of you are following this law suit but looks like Michael Mann has stepped in a big brown pie.

  32. Another Ian says:

    E.M. Re your

    “I suspect an endless number of new CNN Memes are in the works already…”

  33. A C Osborn says:

    pouncer says: 6 July 2017 at 12:58 am
    “iceberg…could melt at a rapid rate, causing sea levels to rise.”

    Floating Ice causes NO sea level rise at all.

  34. philjourdan says:

    @AC Osborn – the stupid – it really burns with the alarmists.

  35. cdquarles says:

    @ Pearce,

    No, the rot started sooner in US history than that! Human nature is what it is and that’s the problem. Think about why the Articles of Confederation didn’t work and had to be replaced a few years after enactment. Think about some Southerners getting puffed up with the (old) idea of a natural chattel slaveholding aristocracy. Spice it with Andrew the Great Betrayer’s failures. Add in years of appeasement of these people. Consider the rise of the Progressives in the late 19th century, full of the “new” religion of socialism spiced with eugenics. The long march started with news media and banking then the schools. It has been going on two centuries now, and in earnest for 120 years now.

  36. cdquarles says:

    Oh boy, contempt of court. Judge can lock you up indefinitely for that, should they decide your contempt was criminal.

  37. Larry Ledwick says:

    France announces a plan to end sale of gasoline and diesel powered cars by 2040 to tackle climate change.

  38. Zeke says:

    David A says:
    5 July 2017 at 6:06 am
    Not a tip, just a general question. I was talking to my brother at the family gathering. today. He is fairly into the claim of central bankers ruling for decafes controling the destinies of nationa. These families, such as the Rothchilds, are the backers of foreighn policy; such as taking out any heads of state who threaten the petro dollar or to in anyway go to a gold standard as apparentl Gadaffi talked about.

    This evil bankers behind it all appears to me to be to much Zero hedge stuff. ( like some facts with conclusions that go a bridge or two to far) I have no problem believing in National and international power struggles over assets, finance etc, but I simply fail to see even who these people are, what assets they have, what their net worth is, etc…

    So my question is does this conspiracy of central bank famlies have any legs, and who runs\owns the federal reserve, what is their wealth, power etc…?

    I have thought that probably all educational curricula should cover the subject of money. What is currency? who can issue it? I can say that very simply, it is essential to a nation’s sovereignty for it to create its own currency. Not only the Constitution of the US but experience shows that this is so.
    But the issues are easily slipped by the public and bills are easily passed which erode or take away the ability of a nation to make its own currency.

    Most articles about money say that there are three kinds of money: that backed by precious metals, that backed by the nation’s credit, and fiat money. Some say that what we have now in the US is not constitutional since it is issued by banks and not Congress.

  39. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well this study is really not news to folks inside the “skeptic” community.
    The article acts like this is news or something instead of dressing up old information in new cloths so it looks like something new and exciting, even though every concern addressed has been common knowledge conclusions for years in the skeptic community.

  40. Larry Ledwick says:

    Not the kind of folks you want running your IT security for congressional offices it seems to me.

  41. A C Osborn says:

    I think you guys are going to love this video, well I did.

  42. Larry Ledwick says:

    From twitter:
    dwnews Retweeted
    Thomas Sparrow‏Verified account @Thomas_Sparrow 4h4 hours ago

    . @PolizeiHamburg say 111 police officers have been injured (unknown injured protesters) and 44 people have been arrested/detained #g20

    Burned out cars in the street

    (((Kraut)))‏ @RealKraut

    #Hamburg #G20 #welcometohell “I will start a revolution of the common people by setting fire to the cars of the common people!” – antifa

    Aside from that no problem.

  43. jim2 says:

    Trump tightens the noose on intel leakers. This is great. Now who’s paranoid?

    “One U.S. official voiced concern over even talking to their superiors about a benign call from a reporter. The agency this official works for had started limiting staff’s access to information, they said, and it would make it far easier to figure out who was talking to people in the media.”

  44. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting comments on graduation from twitter:

    Thomas Joscelyn Retweeted
    H. Poteat‏ @NSQE Jul 5

    This, from Chief Justice John Roberts at his son’s graduation, is really beautiful. And unexpected.

  45. Eric Barnes says:

    Interesting update on Tim Ball and Michael Mann lawsuit.

  46. LG says:

    Raspberry Pi Competitor Rock64 Debuts With Lower Price, 4K HDR

    Rock64 features not found on the RBP3 include a USB 3.0 port, HDMI 2.0a, theoretical support for HDR10 and 4K video output, the option to use eMMC storage, and a gigabit ethernet port. (The RBP3, on the other hand, includes wireless and Bluetooth support out of the box.) More RAM is also supported, up to 4GB, though this substantially raises the price, from $25 for 1GB of DRAM to $45 for 4GB of DRAM. Supported operating systems include Android 7.1, Debian, and Yocto, though the user community around the Rock64 chips is much smaller than its RBP equivalent.

    Overall, the peripheral capabilities of the Rock64 are a bit more advanced than its RBP3 counterpart, even if the underlying CPU cores are the same. If the GPU is a Mali-450MP4 it would probably be stronger as well (I’m a touch less certain about the Mali-450MP2). Maximum clock speed on the GPU, for the curious, is 500MHz — again, it’s not clear which clocks are actually being used.

    The 4K support question is also iffy. Technically, yes, there’s decode support for codecs up to and including that capability, but I’m a little less sure on the ability of the relatively modest hardware to handle 4K video decode in H.264 or H.265. If anyone out there has an RBP3 or equivalent and wants to prove me wrong, please do. But for now, I wouldn’t necessarily count on that option. Being able to technically handle output is one thing; being able to practically do it is something altogether different.

  47. Larry Ledwick says:

    Not a news flash to most of us, but nice plain language discussion of how email can bleed info back to the sender and allow them to track you.

  48. Larry Ledwick says:

    Tim Pool doing a short video from Hamburg G20.
    Antifa activists are stalking journalists and beating them up to try to control the media message. This video gives background on one such incident where a German free lance journalist got beat up just because he got caught in a random photograph and someone claimed he was an “Identitarian” (conservative anti-immigration youth similar to US Alt-Right)

    Tim Cast attack on journalist video

    [] drop the square brackets to view

  49. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting commentary from National Review about CNN and their blindness to changes in the political mood of younger voters, and how their recent effort to use blackmail/extortion to control a private internet poster has backfired big time.

  50. Larry Ledwick says:

    I am surprised it took this long for someone to take this step, although I would have expected him to ask for far higher damages. Now we just need several other cops to join the suit as a class action and bump the damages into the millions.

    Baton Rouge police officer files lawsuit against Black Lives Matters leadership for inciting violence against police officers.

  51. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting graphic map of countries by population. If you realize that once the population of a country reaches adequate education and it has a sophisticated industrial base, then technical progress scales very well with population – – – then in time India and China have the potential of becoming the dominant centers of technological progress.

    In short they each can throw more engineers and scientists at a problem than the rest of the world combined. The only limitations would be cultural (tendency for inefficient use of intellectual capital, bureaucracy, social limitations on the exploitation of technology etc.)

  52. Zeke says:

    LarryL. says, “–then in time India and China have the potential of becoming the dominant centers of technological progress.”

    I have a question for you, which I would appreciate an honest answer to, if you do not mind.

  53. Larry Ledwick says:

    And the question is?

  54. Zeke says:

    My question is this: Were you taught that the West would be replaced by China, Russia, and or India while in University?

    Or did you read Prussian historian O. Spengler some time during or after University?

  55. jim2 says:

    Looks like the Dimowits were actively setting up the Trump team. This will require more popcorn than I can aquire!

    ““We have learned from both our own investigation and public reports that the participants in the meeting misrepresented who they were and who they worked for,” said Mark Corallo, a spokesman for President Trump’s legal team. “Specifically, we have learned that the person who sought the meeting is associated with Fusion GPS, a firm which according to public reports, was retained by Democratic operatives to develop opposition research on the President and which commissioned the phony Steele dossier. “”

  56. Larry Ledwick says:

    @Zeke, none of the above, just an eye toward history and an understand of logistic growth (ie the power of large numbers).

    Just like the biggest high school in the city usually dominates the local foot ball teams because they have a larger talent pool, China and India both have a huge advantage in raw talent to choose from (in terms of numbers). A few years ago, I saw an article that stated that China has more engineers now than all the engineers that ever lived in the US and UK, just because of their size. If they have the same technological base and experience and freedom to excel is a different issue!

    Now there are still social and cultural constraints, if they do not allow their engineers to do engineering because of political or social dogma than they lose that advantage but right now (if they do no collapse due to economic problems or blow up due to demographic problems (one child per family and a generation of angry young men) they are on a trajectory to over whelm everyone. Right now they could single handedly supply the entire worlds steel demand them selves, same with concrete they poured more concrete in the last few years than the US has in its entire life time.

    The physical capabilities are mind boggling (although that also makes the vulnerable to other issues) like crashing the worlds economy with over supply, and what happens if all their exports get shut down by countries trying to protect themselves from having their own industries swamped by Chinese production?

    Internally there is a lot of pressure in China for them to “reclaim” their greatness as a world power they held before they destroyed themselves fighting the Mongols and screwing up their currency repeatedly.

    Militarily they could lose more manpower than the combined death toll of both WWI and WWII and hardly notice the losses except for a minor reduction in air pollution. A casualty loss comparable to the entire population of the US or Europe would only decrease their population by 25% and they could replace those losses in one generation of high reproduction.

    They are the 800 lb gorilla in the room if they want to start breaking things and are rapidly rising technologically to being a near peer or better to the US. In just 10 years or so they will likely match our navel strength in quantity (quality is another issue but the USN has some problems there too).

  57. Zeke says:

    Thank you twice — For answering my query and for emphasizing the qualifiers ie “Now there are still social and cultural constraints…”

    I find predictions of the inevitable Decline of the West and the rise of the BRICs to be a very widely believed forecast. In fact, we have caught tptb in the act of fulfilling these prognostications (which are by now almost unconsciously held by an entire generation), by entering the English-speaking countries into treaties which would actually phase out their energy and agricultural sectors.

    It is a mistake that technology and scientific advances will come from today’s educational system, or from globalists ordering expensive and worthless tech from above. You will just be back in the time of debauched courts and aristocrats ordering faberge eggs. The break from the old world came largely from the introduction of the patent, and from Western freedoms which allowed people to use the resources they had to make things that people want. So instead of faberge eggs for a few, tea sets and paraffin lamps begin to be produced for the many. There is no reason to think that if you do not have these (and other) basic elements within a society, that you will get the same useful results. The only time science is mentioned in the Constitution is that it should be encouraged by allowing a creator to have rights to his invention for a limited time.

    And I know I do not need to remind Larry Ledwick that monopolies/mercantilism/command economics have not contributed to scientific and technological advancements in the way that the simple patent system has, under Western/English law and work and integrity ethic.

  58. Zeke says:

    “It is a mistake to think that technology and scientific advances will come from today’s educational system, or from globalists ordering expensive and worthless tech from above.”

  59. beththeserf says:

    Nassim Taleb in ‘Antifragile’ calls it lecturing birds how to fly. The Romans
    built their aquaducts without benefit of mathematics. The medieval cathedral
    builders built the cathedrals relying on heuristics, empirical methods and tools.
    The main inventions of The Industrial Revolution and technology were much
    the result of trial and error tinkering and the curiosity of the enlightened amateur.

  60. beththeserf says:

    Well., Ian, they would say that wouldn’t they?
    Our ABC and the Supra-national congress-sensational.

  61. Another Ian says:


    You mean “their ABC”

  62. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting comments about President Trump’s speech in Poland and what it signals about a possible “Trump Doctrine”.

  63. beththeserf says:

    Oops – their ABC,
    funded by US.

  64. Larry Ledwick says:

    28 minute video Lauren Southern and Stefen Moleneaux discuss the G20 and Antifa riots and their violent behavior (literally stalking Lauren).
    People on the streets were live tweeting her location to the black block including professional journalists.

    It is shocking that apparently Germany does not realize that they are recreating the conditions that lead up to Kristallnacht in the name of anti-fascism.

    remove square brackets to view video

  65. Larry Ledwick says:

    Just stumbled on this article about General George Patton. Near the bottom of the articles is a comment about how leaders influence crowds — Does anyone see President Trumps public speaking style reflected here?

    Patton has numerous notes in his copy of The Crowd, but one in particular is interesting. On page 57 of his copy, Patton made three hash marks, clearly highlighting Le Bon’s comments on what impresses a crowd—something that the general would use to great effect during the war:

    Given to exaggerations in its feelings, a crowd is only impressed by excessive sentiments. An orator wishing to move a crowd must make an abusive use of violent affirmations. To exaggerate, to affirm, to resort to repetitions, and never to attempt to prove anything by reasoning are methods of argument well known to speakers at public meetings. [6]

  66. Another Ian says:

    E.M. FYI

    “Why SJW’s Are the Worst Mystery Writers (Spoiler Alert: The Culprit is Always Racism)”

  67. Larry Ledwick says:

    Nov 1938 Germany

    July 2017 Germany

  68. Larry Ledwick says:

    I see that La Raza is rebranding itself with a new name “Unidos US”.

  69. jim2 says:

    DNC hack:
    “The initial copying activity was likely done from a computer system that had direct access to the data. By “direct access” we mean that the individual who was collecting the data either had physical access to the computer where the data was stored, or the data was copied over a local high speed network (LAN).”

  70. jim2 says:

    More on the DNC hack:

  71. E.M.Smith says:

    I’m having network issues today. Reset my boundary router, but no joy. Internal networks are fine. Not seeing anything on “attack maps” like:

    So I’m figuring maybe AT&T is “having issues”. I get about 24% packet loss on pings of and can only run one TV on netflix (and then only low res) at the moment. The other times out on loading the app…

    Tablet is cranky on page loads due to time and timeouts, the Linux a bit more robust, but still some pages give grief.

    We’ll see if this comment makes it out.

    It’s prime TV time here, now, so maybe it’s just AT&T prioritizing traffic they own (what net neutrality…)

    Oh Well. We’ll see if it tames down later so I can make a posting…

  72. Larry Ledwick says:

    According to downdetector AT&T is having some problems heat map shows a nice red blob covering most Calif.

  73. tom0mason says:

    If the guess err, hypothesis of AGW holds true and CO2 ‘traps’ heat, and how long does this remarkable illusion err, effect last?
    Consider how long an El Niño warms the planet, how long did CO2 ‘trap’ that heat?
    If it all dissipated how and where?

  74. tom0mason says:

    Oops try again…
    If the guess err, hypothesis of AGW holds true and CO2 ‘traps’ heat, and how long does this remarkable illusion err, effect last?
    Consider how long an El Niño warms the planet, how long did CO2 ‘trap’ that heat?
    If it all dissipated how and where?

  75. cdquarles says:

    Hi Tom, good points.

    There has been much misuse of terms, mainly to deceive, I say.
    1. The thermodynamic temperature is the geometric mean of a defined sample of matter’s constituent’s kinetic energy and *only* the kinetic energy.
    2. Forgotten is that TE = PE + KE.
    3. IR is light, not heat. Heat is energy converted to kinetic energy within, again, a defined sample of matter.
    4. Averaging the surface measurements and reporting only the average, without ranges and/or other measures of central tendency and dispersion, is meaningless. I can average, for example, all of the ‘lotto numbers’ from every lotto world wide. Would that mean a thing in guessing the next draw, either solely locally or for any and all of them? /rhetorical
    5. it is the weather that we are interested in. The climate is a summary of the previously realized weather has been and that’s only meaningful locally. To say it another way, the climate is determined by the weather. The climate does not determine the weather. The weather is determined by local conditions. Some of these conditions are similar to another local area’s conditions (thus are correlated), but extrapolating that to an unsampled area is very uncertain, unless you want only the grossest of descriptions.
    6. Worse, reporting estimated projections/predictions (to me, there is no difference) as if they were exactly what is happening locally is laughable. You can do it, but any match is, at best, coincidence. Should local conditions change due to local biological action (note, nut just from humans), don’t expect your estimates to be worth much.
    7. IR active gases are two-way screens, not traps. A trap physically constrains.
    8. Insulators don’t trap heat, either. They slow conduction losses.
    9. Greenhouses, having solid walls, do trap heated air by design, for they constrain bulk air exchange within the building. The atmosphere does not have a solid wall around it.
    10. Radiative color or brightness temperatures don’t have to correspond to thermodynamic temperatures. At the limit of a black body that radiates solely due to its internal kinetic energy, does.
    11. The ideal gas law is also an abstracted limit. Real gases and especially real vapors, do not follow the ideal gas law. To do highly accurate work with real gases and vapors, you must correct for conditions that the ideal gas law explicitly leaves out.
    12. Henry’s law is a relationship between gas/vapor pressure of the gas(es) in contact with a liquid solvent. If any other reaction takes place between the gas and the solvent, you must correct the Henry’s law relation to take that reaction or reactions into account.
    13. The Clausius-Clapeyron relation is also a limit relation that holds strictly only for the vapor pressure of the gas phase component of a pure substance with its condensed phase component. The presence of other chemicals must be accounted for when doing highly accurate analyses.
    14. Accuracy is not the same thing as precision, which is not the same thing as resolution. Yet, without high resolution measurements, your precision will be lower.

    And last of all:
    15. The easiest person to fool is himself. Before you make vast conclusions from half-vast data and quarter-vast analysis, demand that you ask yourself if you’ve sufficiently taken all sources of error into account, then ask others to try to “find something wrong with it”. Doing this gives greater assurance that you’re on the right path, that your conditional truths cover conditions adequately and that your absolute truths gleaned do not exceed the available information.

  76. Larry Ledwick says:

    Really interesting link about what might have happened during the Gulf of Tonkin incident

  77. E.M.Smith says:


    Nice link. Still showing the Red Blob Of Despair over California, but at least I’ve been able to post a few articles. I’m going to be “posting while the posting is good” and hopefully get some stuff done before the evening TV Rush saturates whatever bandwidth is working…

    God I’m looking forward to contract end with AT&T in April…

  78. Larry Ledwick says:

    File this under interesting military tech, or how to launch an IRBM from an aircraft (see about 1:30 into the video)
    THAAD test video

  79. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting commentary about the recent changes in Saudi Arabia and a new frank discussion of Saudi support for Radical Islam as a political tool. They are beginning to realize that the monster that they created to serve other ends has become like an over aggressive dog a threat to them as well as others.

  80. Larry Ledwick says:

    The Larsen C ice shelf ice berg has now broken free it will probably be officially named as A65 or similar, But so far I have not seen an official announcement to that effect yet from the US National Ice Center as they have not updated their ice berg naming table yet.

  81. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well isn’t this peace loving and compassionate?

    News flash this is the early stage of an insurgency.

  82. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like they will go with A68 as the formal name of the new large iceberg calved off the Larsen-C shelf ice.

  83. Larry Ledwick says:

    The winner effect? Does success in competitive contests promote more Alpha Male like behavior and create a higher likely hood of winning in future contests.

  84. Another Ian says:

    And – Gawd!

    Your Moral And Intellectual Superiors
    By Kate on July 14, 2017 1:19 PM | 12 Comments

    Journalists setting out to discover middle America… like they were filming a episode of Wild Fucking Kingdom. #Othering#EnemyOfThePeople
    — Katewerk (@katewerk) July 14, 2017 ”

  85. Another Ian says:

    And – “Gawd”!

    “Your Moral And Intellectual Superiors
    By Kate on July 14, 2017 1:19 PM | 12 Comments

    Journalists setting out to discover middle America.”

    And don’t miss the comments in the “Related” link..

  86. Larry Ledwick says:

    An answer to those who think President Trump is not “Presidential” or “dignified” or “Proper” enough.

  87. Larry Ledwick says:

    This is fascinating!
    Snopes of all sources published a very centered rebuttal against many of the fabricated memes that have been generated against President Trump.

    It really is even handed and it shreds some of them that are pure fabrication or just plain biased interpretations of facts, restated to give a false impression.

    This raises an interesting question, has Snopes dropped their usual left bias because the hard core left has completely jumped the shark? Or have they been losing traffic hits because more and more people were realizing that they have been “overly kind” to the left’s messages in the media?
    Or did they make a mistake and actually engage in journalism by accident?

  88. Larry Ledwick says:

    An appropriate quote to raise when the SJWs go ballistic about political correctness and micro aggressions.

    Seen in a twitter post:

    Freedom of expression is
    the foundation of human rights,
    the root of human nature, and
    the mother of truth
    — Liu Xiaobo

  89. E.M.Smith says:


    What is happening is that they are shouting dirt at the top of their lungs and we all got tired of it 2 years ago and stopped listening to them then. Now we just smile and pop the top of a cool one while we light the BBQ….

    @Anothrr Ian:

    Or he could just say he erased his email, bleachbit applied, and burned his diary, then ask what they think of it… It isn’t like there is some law you must tell the paperatzi the truth…

    That Clintonland link caused the spouse to ask if they would ever be brought to justice… while the body keep on piling up… maybe they need a special prosecutor…

    Per hufnpuff visit to caged middle Americans for a zoo look n learn, what I posted at SDA:

    That will be a hoot ‘n a half.

    Wonder what they will do when night comes and it actually gets dark

    How will they handle all the restaurants closed at 9 PM?

    Will they figure out where everyone went before lunch on Sunday?

    Then there is Kansas… 8 hours of corn betwern Denver and Kansas City… You mean we have to plan meal and potty times?…

    Maybe we ought to organize porters and guides for them… Safari America… With human species indentification cards… and photo opportunities.

  90. Pingback: Election Over, Black Lives Matter Doesn’t Matter Anymore? | Musings from the Chiefio

  91. Steven Fraser says:

    Just saw a note… Kasparov is coming out of retirement for the St. louis Rapid & Blitz chess competition in August.

  92. cdquarles says:

    peperatzi. I love it :D

  93. Larry Ledwick says:

    From twitter, Lauren Southern takes a 45 minute walk about in Paris, shows that they city has already changed character due to massive immigration – it is forever changed.
    For good or bad – – only time will tell for sure, but the historic Paris no longer exists.

    Her commentary:
    Published on Jul 15, 2017

    Just stepped outside my apartment, started filming for 45 minutes and didn’t stop.

    *For those who are confused by the point of this video, the point is that France is changing forever due to mass immigration. The people in this video were not speaking French, the women were not wearing their hair in French Braids, they had their head scarves on. When I was driving from the airport I saw people being fed from volunteer aid vans in the Syrian zones and coming up to your cars with signs in Arabic. The posters on the walls and the protesters yelled refugees welcome. Much of what you are looking at is not legal or proper migration and assimilation. France will not be France for long.*

    On July 15 2017, a 45 minute walk in Paris compressed into 7:30

  94. Another Ian says:

    “PHRONEMOPHOBIA – fear of thinking”

    Must be a world wide epidemic as yet unreported!

    (Courtesy of Courier Mail (Oz) quiz)

  95. jim2 says:

    An Austin Band “Dream Machine” was dropped by its label due to a SWJ-type problem with lyrics. From the article:
    “We’ve recently been made aware of some ugly opinions Matthew and Doris Melton of Dream Machine gave in a recent interview in Still In Rock, as part of the promotion for their Castle Face LP that came out last month. Castle Face does not agree with the statements on ICE, immigration, feminism, and sexual assault and they are in no way representative of Castle Face or the other artists on the label.”

    It turns out one of the musicians is a LEGAL immigrant from Bosnia and lived under warfare conditions and knows the real meaning of a “safe space.”

  96. Another Ian says:

    “On” not “oh” though that works too

  97. Another Ian says:

    And yet again the record – isn’t

    “There have been far bigger Antarctic icebergs than the latest A68 Larson C berg”

  98. Larry Ledwick says:

    Wow talk about a solid indictment of the current scientific research in the medical field.
    From twitter
    Mike Cernovich
    🇺🇸 Retweeted
    Rob Schneider‏Verified account @RobSchneider 18 hours ago
    (comments by Dr Marcia Angell)
    After 20 years as editor of the New England Journal of Medicine, this is her conclusion.

  99. Another Ian says:

    “The Uncertainty Has Settled, Critical Documentary About Climate, Agriculture and Energy Now Online”

  100. Larry Ledwick says:

    Okay what is wrong with this picture?
    Even though we have one of the most clueless generations of college students in living memory, 47% of high school students are graduating with a A grade average.

    (note chart top of page 2 in this report)

  101. Larry Ledwick says:

    McConnell supports a clean bill to repeal the ACA with a 2 year delay, then replacement.

  102. Larry Ledwick says:

    Seems we have a new cry baby climatologist like Michael Mann who prefers threats and legal action to reasoned debate of the science.

  103. Steve C says:

    @Another Ian – re Phronemophobia, another likely factor.

    Reading the blurb for a BBC radio prog coming up on Saturday, I found a comment from the presenter (Joe Queenan) which says it perfectly: “The truth is like a vegetable your mother makes you eat. Yes, it may be nourishing, but it tastes disgusting.” And, as the listings mag columnist adds, it seems that our resistance to it is growing.

    The programme, for those who can catch it, is Archive on 4: A Brief History of Truth, this Saturday (22nd) at 8:00 BST: for those who can’t, I’m sure the internet will oblige only a very little later, as it always seems to do. ;-)

  104. Another Ian says:

    “Never Trump Update
    Posted on July 18, 2017 by tonyheller

    NeverTrumpers said Trump would back down on his promise to repeal Obamacare.

    As soon as Trump tried to repeal Obamacare, the NeverTrumpers backed down on their promise to repeal Obamacare.”

  105. Larry Ledwick says:

    Just throw this out here for possible future reference as is seems mighty odd.

  106. Larry Ledwick says:

    This is disturbing especially in view of where Obama care was headed, and early concerns about care rationing. Seems the British health care system is validating all those concerns.

  107. Another Ian says:

    From an email just received – no source listed

    *Is there a ANYONE who is surprised that an Engineer came up with this:
    10,535 pages reduced to 4 sentences?*

    A Great summary by a Notre Dame University engineer……… Here are the
    10,535 pages of Obama Care condensed to 4 simple sentences.. As humorous
    as it sounds…..every last word is absolutely TRUE!

    1. In order to insure the uninsured, we first have to un-insure the insured.

    2. Next, we require the newly un-insured to be re-insured.

    3. To re-insure the newly un-insured, they are required to pay extra
    charges to be re-insured.

    4. The extra charges are required so that the original insured, who became
    un-insured, and then became re-insured, can pay enough extra so that the
    original un-insured can be insured, so it will be ‘free-of-charge’ to them.

    This, ladies and gentlemen, is called “redistribution of wealth” or, by its
    more common name, *SOCIALISM,* or *”PROGRESSIVE”,* the politically correct
    names for *COMMUNISM *!

  108. Larry Ledwick says:

    Dig in Australia shows aboriginal occupation may have occurred earlier than thought from 65K – 80K years ago. This by implication also pushes back when humans started wide spread migration out of the cradle of mankind North Africa / Mediterranean regions which recently studies have suggested earliest humans came not from north Africa but nearer to modern day Syria and Iraq region.

  109. Another Ian says:

    foobert | July 19, 2017 6:04 PM | Reply

    A cloud leak?

    Isn’t that what we call rain?”

  110. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    Maybe leaks from computer clouds needs to be called “Purple Rain” ;-)

    Only once companies stop thinking of I.T. as a cost center and start realizing it is THE corporate asset will security be more than an afterthought.

    What can bad security do? Lose your financials, your customer data, your design and other Intellectual property, your staff information and pay rates, your reputation, and potentially put you in jail (for example SarBox if your email archive is deleted). And more… think any company wants their email for the last 5 years posted online?

    Yet almost all executive management is thrilled to ship it out of the company, to 3rd world destinations with poor IT laws, into the hands of strangers with no ethical, legal, or moral ties to western values. What could possibly go wrong… /sarc;

    Why I have not applied for any Director I.T. positions in about 15 years… maybe longer now. Just got tired of patiently explaining various “well, here is why that’s not a very good idea” things over and over only to be told to do it anyway ’cause they read some magazine article or their buddy at some other company did it…

    Went into contracting gigs instead where someone else has their reputation on the line and is liable for the Stupid Decision AwShit when it happens.

    Just got tired of saying “But Sir, they have 20 machine guns facing our trench” and being told to tell the lads to go over the top anyway, bayonets only, and be a good Team Player.

    After a while, you just can’t Do Stupid any more.

  111. E.M.Smith says:

    Just saw on Reuters,

    John McCain has brain cancer. Fond after the blood clot was removed.

  112. cdquarles says:

    Hmm, that explains much. Thanks, EM.

  113. Larry Ledwick says:

    E.M. you anywhere near the evacuation areas for the Detwiler Fire?
    I have a cousin who had to evacuate yesterday.

  114. E.M.Smith says:

    I’m nowhere near any fire. Middle of Silicon Valley urban jungle. I’d guess a mountain range, big valley, and about 80 miles away…

  115. Larry Ledwick says:

    Good deal, I thought you were down in the valley south of the bay, she lives about 45 miles east north east of Modesto so not too far from Yosemite on the north end of the burn area.

  116. Larry Ledwick says:

    Not sure how many US military veterans we have that visit here, but this appears to be a quiet pro-veteran program from the Trump Administration, that some might want to investigate.

  117. Another Ian says:

    Sounds about right – like socialism /s

    “[Fill in Name of Government Program] Would Have Worked Had the Right Person Been Running It”

  118. Zeke says:

    I am searching for the conversation about isoprenes and other hydrocarbons emitted by plants and trees, but I can’t find it.

  119. Zeke says:

    Oh my gosh, more than I asked for! thanks Chief

    I am having a miserable time finding another comment over on WUWT. I really am totally miserable because I cannot find it. It was about increasing mechanization, but what the commenter was pointing out is that because more production and services could be mechanized, more people could start companies and there would be much more competition and a huge increase in smaller companies. It was a real epiphany and I lost it.

    Also, who is going to be making all of these machines and computers that will be making everything else, Ha! (:

  120. E.M.Smith says:

    Got any key word clues on the WUWT comment? I can test out my search-foo ;-)

    Pointer to a thread, topic, or roughly when would also help, or any posting name / handle.

  121. Zeke says:

    I think CommieBob wrote it. It was an off-topic remark, and I know it was not on the Elon Musk article, which was about robotics replacing every one. It was some time before, on WUWT. But if CommieBob did not write it, then there is no way to find it. Don’t put yourself to any trouble! (:

    Do you know what would be nice. It would be nice if you could click on a screen name to get all of a person’s comments. It might have some good potential in making people behave, and also for history’s own sake.

  122. Zeke says:

    Well I can’t find it in June or July. I liked these comments tho.

    commieBob June 30, 2017 at 9:33 am
    A known source of natural gas is methane clathrate which exists mostly at the bottom of the ocean. It is estimated that those reserves are about twice the reserves of continental natural gas.

    The usual explanation for fossil fuels on Earth is organic, that is, the fossil fuels are the product of plants. However …

    Methane (CH4) is abundant on the giant planets — Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune — where it was the product of chemical processing of primordial solar nebula material. link

    There is the possibility of huge quantities of undiscovered methane on Earth from inorganic sources.

    Behaving as though fossil fuels are in short supply is just short sighted.

    commieBob sayz, “Activists should not also be able to call themselves scientists. Scientists compare poorly with engineers. Engineers have to take an ethics exam, scientists don’t. It shows in the miserable state of science these days. yet another link”

  123. Zeke says:

    Another difference between a scientist and an engineer: an engineer can lose his license.

  124. E.M.Smith says:

    Interesting one on “breakthroughs”

    Interesting one on self sufficient making:
    It is looking like that thread might be the one you want:

    It is quite possible that AI and robotics will change the economics of production such that small factories will be able to produce goods at the same unit cost as the current large factories. link
    We’re already seeing China lose its cheap labor advantage as factories return to America. link
    It is quite possible that America can become self-sufficient in almost everything.

    If that one’s not it, let me know and I’ll run back into the June set…

  125. Zeke says:

    That’s the one! That is incredible. GRACias!
    I hope you liked it too.

    I wanted to support what he said with some additional research about American production. The Reader’s Digest version is that originally, the printing industry in the US was essentially an industry of small business firms, almost half of them employing fewer than 4 people. Also, there were dozens of carmakers in the US, before 3 companies took more than 90% of sales.

    Record companies had a similar story. But production could go small and totally diversified. I could have a little device that makes sugar out of sugar beets or something. Lots of possibilities. And my son says that Sony is pressing some LPs. Those are petroleum products, note to those big huge loud ignorant hypocritical rock stars!

  126. Another Ian says:


    Re “And my son says that Sony is pressing some LPs. Those are petroleum products, note to those big huge loud ignorant hypocritical rock stars!”

    CD’s too. And the fossil fuel content of any other performance spreader/enhancer other than voice power.

    Story is that post WW2 Churchill was on a speaking tour in Canada. In a large auditorium when the pa broke down.

    Looked at the microphone with disgust, hurled it aside, announcing loudly that “Having exhausted the resources of science we will now fall back on nature”.and delivered the speech.

    Think of any rock stars that could do that?

  127. Zeke says:

    Nice Churchill anecdote, Another Ian. I am not going to say anything about the broken teleprompter that DJT folded up during a rally. He said he was not paying the bill for that!

  128. Another Ian says:


    Beyond ridiculous?

    “Climate bargain, going cheap! Pay now, save $Trillions, stop Storms, Droughts, Bad Stuff. Ends today!”

  129. Zeke says:

    Another Ian says, “CD’s too. And the fossil fuel content of any other performance spreader/enhancer other than voice power.”

    You’ll have to excuse me, all of the rock stars I knew made their considerable fortunes selling vinyl records. (:

    Nice long, lovely hydrocarbon molecules

    And they are now rattling on about fossil fuels and hawking worthless wind and solar panels, or “sustainable energy.” Some are collecting payments from other electricity rate payers for the panels installed on their enormous roofs.

    (–Except for the “Fire b@mb a McDonald’s” one, she’s not.)

    And like the “Phoanie Joanie” cartoon, traveled the country in planes and limousines denouncing the free market, pavement, and American industry.

  130. catweazle666 says:

    “Also, who is going to be making all of these machines and computers that will be making everything else, Ha! (:”

    The bloody Chinks of course!

    Who did you expect?

  131. E.M.Smith says:


    Please avoid ethnic slurs. Just part of being polite and keeping a tidy place.

    Per the who makes what:

    We already have machines making machines. Automated machine shops are all the rage and those that make tooling especially. Computer fabrication happens at the micro level where it’s all automated. Only final assembly is sometimes a bit manual. All soldering and surface mount parts are machine placed and automated solder equipment.

    Essentially up to finished board level it’s automated with people just doing the tending.

    Per the world devolving down into small shops of craft sized:

    Everyone loves to focus on the mechanical side of manufacturing scale and forget about the financial and marketing “economies of scale”. I can make soap and detergent in my kitchen ( I have…) and even put a page up on Ebay to sell it., but what I can’t do is buy raw materials at the extreme discount of Proctor & Gamble or have the marketing buy clout of any company buying $100 Million at a crack.

    The whole reason “rollups” happen where a single company starts buying up the competition is that the technology has matured and the economies of scale and IP have moved from patents and new invention to one of “bigger financial and brand clout” and consolidation of whatever IP already exists. So initially you have a dozen car makers, then it turns out that a Pontiac isn’t much different from an Olds from a Buick from a Chevy… and whoever has the most cash starts buying out the other ones. All made on the same line, common financing and common advertising budgets.

    NONE of that “goes away” just because it is assembled with small robots or 3D printed. Big companies will get greater discounts on the purchase of that equipment, lower costs of electricity to run them, better leases on larger buildings to house them, lower costs of advertizing and branding, sales and distribution, etc. etc…

  132. Zeke says:

    “Big companies will get greater discounts on the purchase of that equipment, lower costs of electricity to run them, better leases on larger buildings to house them, lower costs of advertizing and branding, sales and distribution, etc. etc…”

    Now this is getting especially interesting! What Chief is saying is of course axiomatic and is not up for debate. However, the reason the big companies buy up the smaller ones is because they are successful and are offering an item that people like. The truth is that the smaller company developed in local conditions, using what resources were available, and created something that people want. It also created a lot of opportunities for the employees during the decades before it caught the notice of the larger company. I drove a light truck for a small bakery, which did so well that eventually Sara Lee bought it. We all moved on, but the smaller companies have plenty of room for success: the large companies would not buy them in the first place if it was not an amazing niche developed by the entrepreneur.

    And so all those years, before the big bakery bought the little bakery, you had excellence, choice, and opportunity. And that is what the diversity of businesses provides. That is the original foundation of American genius and technological advancements.

    If any one has ever taught American history, you know you will get to that chapter about Rockefeller and Ford, and Carnegie. But they had competitors, and it was those competitors who actually kept the ideas moving forward, who made discoveries, who provided the alternatives which people could always turn to. So the real challenge is to the mistaken “great man” template of history. That is a very bad model and if there was time, we could utterly debunk it.

  133. Zeke says:

    So maybe my grandpa did not get his Pennsylvania oil from a RR tanker, but got fuel from a Texas oil field, delivered on a fleet of Texaco trucks, all driving on dirt roads that were given a light oil treatment to keep down the dust. Cullinan went to Texas, and eventually as a young man had a fleet of these:

    Now I’d like to see the look on the Rockefeller faces now that huge reserves have been found again in Texas.

  134. E.M.Smith says:


    Oh, and you are very welcome for the search / find. It was a nice chance to see if I still had the touch ;-)

    Per Scale:

    It’s a very interesting bit of economics, organizational behaviour and growth / death of industries. Believe it or not, there are actually classes taught about it (and I had it in school).

    One of the key bits in the transition is when the “little guys” run out of innovations to make that really matter. You can see that in cars.

    In the beginning there were real differences. The original Cadillac had things like disk brakes and independent suspension (IIRC) while the early Olds had really big engines. Heck, even in the 1950 ( I owned a 1956 Olds Holiday…) they had a 4 speed automatic transmission. They were the “Hot Car” used by police of that era.. Eventually it reaches the point where they can’t be “disruptive” enough to take market share from the guy with lower costs and it becomes a game of “fattest wallet wins”. That’s when the “rollups” start.

    For cars, that was the ’40s and ’50s. The era of “financial wizards” who basically just figured out efficient ways to leverage the bigger wallet. So General Motors formed and bought up Cadillac, Chevrolet, Pontiac, Buick, etc. etc. Ford bought Mercury and Lincoln (and maybe some others). Then Studebaker (who started making horse carriages for the old West and Mid-West with a stellar reputation) bought up several brands to become American Motors (Rambler and maybe it was Packard or Hudson). And Dodge Brothers and Chrysler merged. Those two eventually also merging into a newer American Motors.. that eventually bought up Willy’s / Jeep / Eagle and then was bought by Mercedes who later sold it to Fiat where it rests today… all happening as the car makers went global and folks like GM bought Opel and other “overseas” brands).

    So the USA went to the “big 3” (it would go to the “Big One” were it not for anti-monopoly laws) and is now at the “Big 2 + Fiat”…

    So Tesla comes along with a new disruptive technology. He’s got a niche just as long as the Big Boys don’t technically match him. After dissing and avoiding the costs of change for a couple of decades (remember that GM first leased an electric car, then promptly retrieved them all and crushed them back about the ’80s?) by window dressing, GM is now committed to the Volt. Tesla’s days as an independent company are numbered…

    As long as Tesla can get continued funding at a low enough price it can hang in there. As soon as they falter, at all, and costs to borrow go up, GM can undercut them on financing and flooring costs. Then they are going to have a stock price stumble to “reasonable” levels and someone will commit merger on them. I’d give it about 5 years.

    It’s a general property. VW now owns Porsche, Audi, and several other brands. I’ve lost count of them all. (They bought several British ones). That kind of thing continues as long as technical change is low and laws don’t prevent the “absorb and remove from the market a competitor” process. In the end, we ought to end up with about a half dozen players in 3 batches. European, Japanese, and American. For now, the Koreans are making a big dent and the Chinese want to play too, so that’s a bit disruptive on the cost side. Don’t know how long that will take to play out. Some countries will want indigenous car makers for the ability to make combat vehicles on their own, so some will stay as niche players in more restricted markets.

    You can see the flip side of this in the supercars. Things like the McLaren. Highly specialized tech for a vary narrow (and eye wateringly expensive) niche. They survive as there isn’t enough profit there to bother the Big Boys who don’t sell into that niche.

    So that’s the stability end point. An oligopoly (few sellers) of giant size and a few niche makers of highly specialized products.

    Now, get out of the bulk manufactures markets and into things with smaller Minimum Economic Size where most often personal service matters most, then you gets lots of small makers. Things like Hot Dog Carts. You care more about the guy serving you than the name on the cart. Economic size is ONE Cart. Franchise operations try to bridge that gap with known branding and shared advertizing, along with quality standards. That makes visitors comfortable stepping up. But the Local Guy with Local Clients can still win the local market. (Thus my car mechanic who is always booked solid despite nearly no brand recognition nor ‘scale’…)

    Bet you could never tell this was one of the subjects I really really liked in school ;-)

    Economies of Scale and Minimum Economic Size vs
    DIS-Economies of Scale and Maximum Economic Size.

    Most folks only ever hear about the first line and don’t even know the second one exists… yet it drives most of our total economic structure…

  135. Zeke says:

    Well chief, maybe you think the Tesla is a genuinely disruptive product but I don’t. A disruptive car would be one that people like that is not computerized, and a person could do the same thing with tractors. There are thousands and thousands of patents in the US, and a little retro-simplicity might be the next thing.

  136. E.M.Smith says:


    I don’t know why everyone, almost without exception, seems to think it is about me or what I think….

    It does not matter one whit of a whittle if I think it is disruptive. All that matters is that the market thinks it is disruptive. The market does. It is selling enough to be an issue, and has caught the attention of the power brokers (thus being promoted). GM has decided it is enough to start pushing the Volt despite NEVER really giving a damn about electric cars.

    None of that involves me.

    So the folks in government who think it is disruptive (and want it shovel $Billions of subsidy at them) push subsidy laws.

    The folks at GM who think it is disruptive start pushing the Volt again.

    The 10s of thousands of folks who by cars who think it is disruptive buy them.

    etc. etc. all without ME thinking it disruptive, or not. I just observe. It isn’t about me.

    So once that social / governmental / industrial mix of folks decide it is ‘disruptive enough’, the market responds, as it is. Eventually that becomes enough of an issue that one of the Big Guys “takes care of it”. Either by making a better electric car (showing it to actually be really technically a disruption of the 100+ years of gasoline car tech) or by buying it out and killing it (just to eliminate an annoyance) or occasionally to buy it and keep it running in a niche just to have a corporate reputational trinket to advertize with.

    That’s what happen, no matter what I think about it.

    Personal Opinion:

    I visited an IEEE members meeting of some sort in Palo Alto over a decade or two ago. Don’t know exactly when. A presentation was given by one of the head engineers about all their cool tech at Tesla (before anything was being sold). We got to sit in the prototype and take a lap around the parking lot (they drove) if desired and you stood in line long enough. Their tech IS interesting, good even. I don’t consider it ground breaking in any particular way. IMHO too many parts in the parts count of the battery… but they think that a ‘feature’.

    As I remember it, their tech was:

    1) An interesting motor design / mount system. Nice, but nothing particularly unknown prior. All from “prior art” well engineered near as I could tell.

    2) Nice body / chassis design, but nothing really new.

    3) A battery pack made of standard industrial AA lithium cells. New benefits: Better ability to cool the battery due to small units. Significant work on heat sensing and management. Lower costs from bulk buys of industrial standard COTS components. (Common Off The Shelf).

    4) A very intelligent charge controller / power unit. It monitored the state of each cell, knows when one is failing and swaps it out of use. Looks out for hot spots and makes sure nothing bad happens. A couple of other neat bits I don’t remember clearly enough but basically computerized battery management both in charging and discharging. This was new, then.

    That’s it, really.

    My opinion then, and now, is that the motor / body / chassis is stuff anyone can do or copy. The battery is an advantage and a curse. We all know what happens to computer batteries over the years and they do NOT allow individual cell swapping (only the computerized history keeping thing can swap out failing cells and idle them… after enough are gone – i.e. the spare capacity gone – you replace the whole pack). This caused some “bricking” issues when the computer powered down in full discharge. Reputedly fixed, but I don’t know.

    That leaves the very smart heat management / charge controller. OK, that’s a step forward, but all it takes is someone with a better battery to make that irrelevant.

    So I was “Nice car, not really exceptional” then, and the same now.

    End of opinion.

    So I also missed that Musk would go into the subsidy farming business and make a success of it. My bad.

    But he did, he has, it is disruptive in the market (whether due to subsidy, buyers, tech, or actual product doesn’t matter) and the same economic processes will play out. No matter what I think about the product.

  137. Zeke says:

    The mandates to add EVs to the electrical grid, which was designed and built to provide electricity to homes and manufacturers, are indeed going to be “disruptive.” So you are literally correct.

  138. Zeke says:

    We have enough objective observers. We could take a poll. (: Is Tesla EV Disruptive Tech or is it disruptive tech?

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