Tips – July 2017

About “Tips”:

While I’m mostly interested in things having to do with:

Making money, usually via trading
Weather and climate (“Global Warming” & “Climate Change”)
Quakes, Volcanoes, and other Earth Sciences
Current economic and political events
(often as those last three have impact on the first one…)
And just about any ‘way cool’ interesting science or technology

If something else is interesting you put a “tip” here as you like.

You can also look at the list of “Categories” on the right hand side and get an idea of any other broad area of interest.

This ought not to be seen as a “limit” on what is “interesting”, more as a “focus list” with other things that are interesting being fair game as well.

The History:

Note that “pages” are the things reached from links on the top bar just under the pretty picture. “Postings” are reached from the listing along the right side of any given article (posting).

Since WordPress has decided that comments on Pages, like the Old Tips Pages, won’t show up in recent comments, it kind of breaks the value of it for me. In response, I shifted from a set of “pages” to a set of “postings”. As any given Tips Posting gets full, I’ll add a new one.

I have kept the same general format, with the T page (top bar) still pointing to both the archive of Tips Pages as well as the series of new Postings via a link to the TIPS category.

This is the next posting from prior Tips postings as they had gotten so large it was taking a long time to load. Same idea, just a new set of space to put pointers to things of interest. The most immediately preceding Tips posting is:

The generic “T” parent page remains up top, where older copies of the various “Tips” pages can be found archived. The Tips category (see list at right) marks Tips postings for easy location.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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264 Responses to Tips – July 2017

  1. jim2 says:

    EMS, take note:

    “Your place or mine? Texas liberals and California conservatives swap states”

  2. jim2 says:

    Forbush decrease frequency vs. sunspot #:

    Click to access ijpapv13n1spl_48.pdf

  3. jim2 says:

    Or, maybe you will want to stay there …

    “Texas Poised to Integrate More Wind, Solar Energy”

  4. jim2 says:

    The links to the papers in the wind/solar article are interesting. They seem to understand the problems with frequency maintenance.

  5. hillrj says:

    EM: Why is gold price and stock volatility so low, when there seems to be trouble all around?

  6. E.M.Smith says:


    Volatility is lowest at tops., highest at bottoms. It is a general property..


    Texans are not above “Subsidy Farming” and any other source of collecting money from the Stupid in the Federal Apparatus… I’m pretty sure I’m

  7. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting materials science (man made stone catagory)

    Scientists say they have figured out how Roman Concrete gets stronger with age rather than deteriorating like modern portland cement.

    They left out one detail, modern construction grade concrete has reinforcing steel in it which in these conditions corrodes and expands as it rusts breaking apart the concrete it is imbedded in.

    To my knowledge the Romans used no reinforcement rods of any kind.

    It does raise the interesting question if the Roman concrete recipe were adapted to modern applications with a non-corroding reinforcement method like glass fiber (which I know has been experimented with) and stainless steel re-bar which is also began being used in highly corrosive environments where its longer service life pays for the higher up front cost.

  8. Larry Ledwick says:

    Related to the above:

    EM has already discussed this non-steel rebar

    Note here recent green efforts to shut down coal fired power plants means limited access to fly ash used in modern concrete. File this under unanticipated consequences.

  9. Larry Ledwick says:

    Method of placement is also important to its durability. Modern concrete is rated by its “slump” when wet. Very dry still low slump mixes make stronger concrete but they do not work well with simple pouring and rodding or vibrating to get the air out.

  10. Another Ian says:


    This day’s Murdoch

    “Radical new plan to remove ‘incapacitated’ President Trump”

    By the comments expect more heads exploding IMO

  11. pearce m. schaudies says:

    Hi Chief. this is regards your last post on the June tips.

    Based on your comment about motivation it sounds like you need to come up with some more Holy Grail Quests. And the level of frustration you express at beating your head against the wall also suggest the midlife crisis turning point that a lot of people experience about this time In their lives.

    I grew up in Texas and participated in the Cub Scout, Boy Scout, Explorer Scout programs, and you sound like a good scout. The things I have seen in America since then have convinced me that the dark side has slowly taken over since about the time of Kennedys assassination and Nixon got in office. You cannot continue to struggle against them by online statements cos if you get a following and high enough profile you could have an accident. Better to join a sympathetic lodge or fraternal organization and run for local office. And if you see the opportunity to do a little Anonymous sabotage like putting sand in the crankcase or sugar in the gasoline by all means feel free haha.

    You might also consider taking up target practice with a pistol at some gun club or bow and arrow target practice at a different Club.

    Minister of Future

  12. pearce m. schaudies says:

    Short fiction sites, mabe 30 min each story. Good time- wasters. Enjoy …

    Minister of Future

  13. jim2 says:

    I just heard a guy on TV referring to the new electric car “Easy” priced at $30,000 as “affordable.” On what planet???

  14. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    Just part of the Color Revolution formula. On my list of “yet to be finished” posts is one about the architecture of Color Revolutions. Yes, they have a play book for them. This is one of the pages… The short form is foment social chaos, riots, etc. etc., then blame the Executive, then make a movement to remove them (ballot, impeachment, whatever).

    What they are not appreciating is that the backers of Trump will not let that happen.


    The Romans used fired clay pots are reinforcing. Those big expanse covering domes were made with thin sections between thick (like window in a frame) and then inside the concrete they had little round pots embedded. All to make it stronger and lighter.

    On the cinders: I had to laugh at the “sand shortage” and “running out of sand” story a week or two back. Never seen the Sahara, eh? They went to great length to assert there was “special” sand needed for concrete, and that we were using it faster than nature was replacing it, so there must be a shortage… someday… No mention of actual amounts known to exit. Oh, but sea level rise is going to cover all the beaches and their sand… (As though nobody knows how to use a dredge…) Then there was that point about “Cinder Blocks” being made from cinders… Guess they didn’t think much about the name.

    When I was a kid, we used to go play out at the river. The local cement and sand and gravel plant was located there. Rock crushers and all. Guess they never heard of rock crushers either… Oh No! We’re going to run out of rocks!!! (Not!) So they would dredge and dig up acres of historic river deposits, wash and sort them by size, and then crush the bits that were bigger than desired. Plant is still there, 1/2 century later, last time I looked. River keeps bringing more…

    I’ve made cement and concrete mixes. Starting about 7 with my Dad when we put a floor in the horse shed and made it a garage. Used all sorts of sand. Nothing special needed. Now to make a particular specification of concrete, you do need materials that meet the spec, but one can also design for a different specification of materials… Guess that didn’t rise to their attention either. Wattle & Daub all the say to Stucco and poured concrete to cinderblocks and even various engineered materials, like geopolymer. All not considered… Oh Well.

    Romans discovered that volcanic cinders made the best cement, and exploited that. Now we burn the rocks ourselves to make the same stuff. Guess we avoided “running out of volcanoes” too ;-)


    No “midlife crisis”. I don’t do crisis. FWIW, I’ve had similar “episodes” of “now what?” at various times in my life when I’ve realized either “It’s over, I’ve finished {whatever}” or “It is fruitless, so what’s the point now?” once realizing it is a dead end. Things like graduating college as a “finished, now what?” or deciding to let go of the “Become a Medical Doctor” in my 3rd? year of college. (I made the ‘mistake’ of hanging out at the Medical School – picking up some Med School credits in the process and learning to draw blood – it’s a long story involving NASA… Along the way was also working in hospitals. Realized: 1) Hospitals are dismal places to spend your life. 2) Everyone in Med School was hyper-motivated either by an extreme love of medicine or of money, and I was not that driven by either.) So realizing that the path I’d been set on by “others” in High School was “not for me”, started a quest for a new path. Since those were not “midlife crisis” events, don’t see how a much more minor questioning of goals and motivations now can be anything close.

    Basically, it’s more like the traditional “quarterly review” of projects as Director where I’d question just what projects were being done, what resources they took, and was it worth it compared to other needs. They may be fun and interesting projects, but are they productive enough to matter?

    FWIW, I’m “NASA Certified” as not doing emotional crisis… I was in a program that required selecting folks who could take stress for 3.5 months and not “lose it”. Certified sane, balanced, and having “the right stuff”. Our program set the psych profile used to select shuttle astronauts and those for the Space Station. Able to handle long duration locked in a can (or box) and not have an emotional issue… Waking up every 4 hours around the clock to fly flight simulators (simulated emergency abandon station) and even draw blood in the dark (7 watt red dark room bulb was it, they didn’t want light to change the blood gasses…) When you can be placid doing an emergency landing while awake all of 2 minutes and then draw blood in the dark, well, not much gets you worked up…

    I do sometimes wonder what it is like for other people where emotion comes first, then they rationalize afterwards. For me, it’s all reason and logic first, middle, and usually last. Then a minor echo of some emotional state, like mild disappointment or personal satisfaction. Yeah, I’ve been frequently called a “cold fish”… so I had to learn to “display” stronger emotional state so people would be more accepting. But really, once you realize life is a terminal condition and nobody gets out of it alive, what’s left to worry about? I realized that about 5 years old… So “enjoy the ride” and “just don’t screw up too badly” is about as close to my “motivation” as you can get.

    Oh, and also FWIW, I’ve had this “pause and review” a few times now over the years of this blog. Usually after about a month, sometimes two, The Warmistas get back to slugging and doing their “Fling Poo!” and I realize it isn’t over and I’m not done… So check back in about September or October and we’ll see if that particular timer has gone off … again. I have enough “1/2 done” postings to fill at list that long into the future, so no shortage of stuff even if I just decided to clear the queue and not find new stuff.

    Per ranges: Well, I have a target dummy (left by my future son-in-law) in the back yard and can just take my bow out and shoot it if I wanted. But I don’t want. I’m already a good enough shot, and don’t see the point of wasting time with it. I have no emotional connection to shooting, it is just a mechanical art worth being good at doing. Guns at the junk range can be fun, but it’s more hassle to get there and do it, and costs too much, for the fun it gives. I’d rather spend time recovering my garden. Think Zen… that gets you “targeted” on what I like to do… A sand garden would be more interesting to me than shooting a dummy or tin cans.

    Oh, and per “sugared gas” or sand and oil: I simply can not condone such things. Either the real act or as a metaphor for sabotage of another side’s political movement. Just not in me. The car is innocent. Damage is a waste. Why waste a valuable construction that is not at fault? I abhor waste and damage to innocents (even objects) at a very strong level. If there is evil, then exactly and only that evil needs to be confronted, preferably directly and in full light of day. Yeah, I’m lousy at subterfuge… I was raised with the old traditional British Sense Of Fair Play and all… Now with that in mind, and remember I’m in California: There is no way at all I could even get on the ballot, never mind the election, given that I’m representative of about 1% of the California population, politically, and I’m not good at lying for political gain nor am I good at being charismatic. So that whole Politics angle just isn’t going to work.

    But no worries. I’m not planning any change this year. Just a slow spot as I “work while the weather is nice for it”.

  15. Another Ian says:

    “Bit of an ‘itch! Bit of an ‘itch!” as one of the oldies around here used to say.

    “I, For One, Welcome Our New Self-Driving Overlords”

  16. jim2 says:

    About wind farms in Texas. Could it possibly be political? …. naw … /sarc

    “Out here at the Twisted J Ranch, you know, we’ve always primarily been a cow and horse operation. Here about five years ago, the wind power companies came in and they set up these windmills. It’s been really good. It’s been a good partnership. It’s helped out the bottom line, you know, with the cost of feed and the cost of hay, just the cost of doing business in this day and time.

  17. pearce m. schaudies says:

    Chief says- Yeah, I’ve been frequently called a “cold fish”… so I had to learn to “display” stronger emotional state so people would be more accepting. 

    *Growing up, people always said I was too serious about everything. I guess that was polite for cold fish haha. Anyway I did discover, like you, that I can mimic an appropriate response to an expanded emotional state and get more response back, and fit into the group. Getting the responses calibrated took several years between 12 and 17 haha. Just like the little kid in the movie AI.

    Minister of Future

  18. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well this is going to get interesting, CNN has pissed off /pol/
    From Twitter:
    Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸‏Verified account @JackPosobiec 19m19 minutes ago

    /pol/ has declared war on CNN

    Seems that CNN is threatening a 15 year old for memes he has produced

    Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸‏Verified account @JackPosobiec 28 minutes ago

    8chan just doxxed every CNN host #CNNBlackmail

  19. David A says:

    Not a tip, just a general question. I was talking to my brother at the family gathering. today. He is fairly into the claim of central bankers ruling for decafes controling the destinies of nationa. These families, such as the Rothchilds, are the backers of foreighn policy; such as taking out any heads of state who threaten the petro dollar or to in anyway go to a gold standard as apparentl Gadaffi talked about.

    This evil bankers behind it all appears to me to be to much Zero hedge stuff. ( like some facts with conclusions that go a bridge or two to far) I have no problem believing in National and international power struggles over assets, finance etc, but I simply fail to see even who these people are, what assets they have, what their net worth is, etc…

    So my question is does this conspiracy of central bank famlies have any legs, and who runs\owns the federal reserve, what is their wealth, power etc…?

  20. tom0mason says:

    FYI currently active volcanoes

  21. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    Like that comment about Mann and contempt of court :-)

    @David A:

    Well, it’s “complicated”… This quasi explains it

    The Fed is “owned” by the member banks, but they can’t sell it… they get a 6% return…

    So to know ultimate ownership, you need to look at who owns those banks.

    In general, it comes down to folks who see fractional reserve banking as immoral, vs folks who see it as a way to allow banks to make 30 year loans based on demand deposits and need to smooth out the velocity of money.

    If you eliminated it, either you return to bank runs causing collapses, or your bank savings account consists only of 30 year bonds that can’t be cashed out early. Most people like checking accounts, money markets, and savings without a year notice required to withdraw funds…

    In general, I think it is a workable cludge that just happens to make multi Billionaires out of the Rockefellers, Morgans, Chases, etc. etc. But I can’t see a cleanly better way. Having politicians control the central banks generally ends in hyperinflation within decades… see Venezuela and Argentina as resent examples.

  22. E.M.Smith says:


    Oh God, CNN thought they were taking down a dirty old Trumper, and now are caught outing and harassing a kid… talk about PR Nightmare! I need more snacks and drinks for that show…

    I suspect an endless number of new CNN Memes are in the works already…

  23. philjourdan says:

    @Larry – CNN does seem to do one thing well. – INsert foot into mouth.

  24. jim2 says:

    “Sci-Hub ‘Pirate Bay for scientists’ sued by American Chemical Society over cloned site”

  25. Larry Ledwick says:

    More on CNN from twitter:

    Stefan Molyneux‏Verified account @StefanMolyneux 10h10 hours ago
    Are you currently an able-bodied shitposter?
    You have been drafted into the next great meme war.


    Smyth Radio liked
    Julian Assange‏ @JulianAssange 15h15 hours ago
    Replying to @JulianAssange

    CNN just committed a crime violating § 135.60 of the New York criminal code “coercion”

  26. Larry Ledwick says:

    More on twitter:
    Dirt Man of Kekistan‏ @yahboiDirtMan

    4chan has declared war upon CNN,and soon others will follow Operation:Autism Storm will be the beginning of the next Meme War

  27. Another Ian says:

    Re Volvo’s all electric cars announcement

  28. Larry Ledwick says:

    Venezuela is down to about $10 billion in reserves, about time to start the count down clock to default “only 257 days remaining until default”

  29. philjourdan says:

    Seriously, is stupid a requirement for reporters and alarmists?

    Scientists say the iceberg will be titanic — roughly the size of Delaware — and could melt at a rapid rate, causing sea levels to rise. Its location could also pose a hazard to maritime traffic.

    It is an effing ICEBERG! It cannot cause sea levels to rise! It displaces a much water as it holds!

  30. pouncer says:

    “iceberg…could melt at a rapid rate, causing sea levels to rise.”

    What if it melts, slowly? Then the sea levels would be okay? How fast is “rapid” and how slow would have no consequences?

    How deep is Delaware, by the way? The steamship Titanic and icebergs are measured in cubic units while the only information I can find about Delaware gives me square units. It’s a puzzle. Can you tell the tons-displacement of Delaware, or this iceberg of which you speak?

    ANNNDDDD I had been completely oblivious to the amount of crucial maritime traffic in the vicinity of Argentina and the Falklands. What sorts of commodities are at risk of price rises if this traffic had to be re routed, perhaps via the newly-expanded Panama canal? Should I invest in alternative commodities, or short-sell companies that depend on that traffic. Tell me more about this “traffic” you seem to be concerned over.

    Going to the issue of communicating with stupid — sometimes the best way may be just to roll with it. Go Socratic. You seem to have knowledge that I don’t seem to share. Let us explore what it is that you think you know.

  31. Larry Ledwick says:

    Not sure if any of you are following this law suit but looks like Michael Mann has stepped in a big brown pie.

  32. Another Ian says:

    E.M. Re your

    “I suspect an endless number of new CNN Memes are in the works already…”

  33. A C Osborn says:

    pouncer says: 6 July 2017 at 12:58 am
    “iceberg…could melt at a rapid rate, causing sea levels to rise.”

    Floating Ice causes NO sea level rise at all.

  34. philjourdan says:

    @AC Osborn – the stupid – it really burns with the alarmists.

  35. cdquarles says:

    @ Pearce,

    No, the rot started sooner in US history than that! Human nature is what it is and that’s the problem. Think about why the Articles of Confederation didn’t work and had to be replaced a few years after enactment. Think about some Southerners getting puffed up with the (old) idea of a natural chattel slaveholding aristocracy. Spice it with Andrew the Great Betrayer’s failures. Add in years of appeasement of these people. Consider the rise of the Progressives in the late 19th century, full of the “new” religion of socialism spiced with eugenics. The long march started with news media and banking then the schools. It has been going on two centuries now, and in earnest for 120 years now.

  36. cdquarles says:

    Oh boy, contempt of court. Judge can lock you up indefinitely for that, should they decide your contempt was criminal.

  37. Larry Ledwick says:

    France announces a plan to end sale of gasoline and diesel powered cars by 2040 to tackle climate change.

  38. Zeke says:

    David A says:
    5 July 2017 at 6:06 am
    Not a tip, just a general question. I was talking to my brother at the family gathering. today. He is fairly into the claim of central bankers ruling for decafes controling the destinies of nationa. These families, such as the Rothchilds, are the backers of foreighn policy; such as taking out any heads of state who threaten the petro dollar or to in anyway go to a gold standard as apparentl Gadaffi talked about.

    This evil bankers behind it all appears to me to be to much Zero hedge stuff. ( like some facts with conclusions that go a bridge or two to far) I have no problem believing in National and international power struggles over assets, finance etc, but I simply fail to see even who these people are, what assets they have, what their net worth is, etc…

    So my question is does this conspiracy of central bank famlies have any legs, and who runs\owns the federal reserve, what is their wealth, power etc…?

    I have thought that probably all educational curricula should cover the subject of money. What is currency? who can issue it? I can say that very simply, it is essential to a nation’s sovereignty for it to create its own currency. Not only the Constitution of the US but experience shows that this is so.
    But the issues are easily slipped by the public and bills are easily passed which erode or take away the ability of a nation to make its own currency.

    Most articles about money say that there are three kinds of money: that backed by precious metals, that backed by the nation’s credit, and fiat money. Some say that what we have now in the US is not constitutional since it is issued by banks and not Congress.

  39. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well this study is really not news to folks inside the “skeptic” community.
    The article acts like this is news or something instead of dressing up old information in new cloths so it looks like something new and exciting, even though every concern addressed has been common knowledge conclusions for years in the skeptic community.

  40. Larry Ledwick says:

    Not the kind of folks you want running your IT security for congressional offices it seems to me.

  41. A C Osborn says:

    I think you guys are going to love this video, well I did.

  42. Larry Ledwick says:

    From twitter:
    dwnews Retweeted
    Thomas Sparrow‏Verified account @Thomas_Sparrow 4h4 hours ago

    . @PolizeiHamburg say 111 police officers have been injured (unknown injured protesters) and 44 people have been arrested/detained #g20

    Burned out cars in the street

    (((Kraut)))‏ @RealKraut

    #Hamburg #G20 #welcometohell “I will start a revolution of the common people by setting fire to the cars of the common people!” – antifa

    Aside from that no problem.

  43. jim2 says:

    Trump tightens the noose on intel leakers. This is great. Now who’s paranoid?

    “One U.S. official voiced concern over even talking to their superiors about a benign call from a reporter. The agency this official works for had started limiting staff’s access to information, they said, and it would make it far easier to figure out who was talking to people in the media.”

  44. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting comments on graduation from twitter:

    Thomas Joscelyn Retweeted
    H. Poteat‏ @NSQE Jul 5

    This, from Chief Justice John Roberts at his son’s graduation, is really beautiful. And unexpected.

  45. Eric Barnes says:

    Interesting update on Tim Ball and Michael Mann lawsuit.

  46. LG says:

    Raspberry Pi Competitor Rock64 Debuts With Lower Price, 4K HDR

    Rock64 features not found on the RBP3 include a USB 3.0 port, HDMI 2.0a, theoretical support for HDR10 and 4K video output, the option to use eMMC storage, and a gigabit ethernet port. (The RBP3, on the other hand, includes wireless and Bluetooth support out of the box.) More RAM is also supported, up to 4GB, though this substantially raises the price, from $25 for 1GB of DRAM to $45 for 4GB of DRAM. Supported operating systems include Android 7.1, Debian, and Yocto, though the user community around the Rock64 chips is much smaller than its RBP equivalent.

    Overall, the peripheral capabilities of the Rock64 are a bit more advanced than its RBP3 counterpart, even if the underlying CPU cores are the same. If the GPU is a Mali-450MP4 it would probably be stronger as well (I’m a touch less certain about the Mali-450MP2). Maximum clock speed on the GPU, for the curious, is 500MHz — again, it’s not clear which clocks are actually being used.

    The 4K support question is also iffy. Technically, yes, there’s decode support for codecs up to and including that capability, but I’m a little less sure on the ability of the relatively modest hardware to handle 4K video decode in H.264 or H.265. If anyone out there has an RBP3 or equivalent and wants to prove me wrong, please do. But for now, I wouldn’t necessarily count on that option. Being able to technically handle output is one thing; being able to practically do it is something altogether different.

  47. Larry Ledwick says:

    Not a news flash to most of us, but nice plain language discussion of how email can bleed info back to the sender and allow them to track you.

  48. Larry Ledwick says:

    Tim Pool doing a short video from Hamburg G20.
    Antifa activists are stalking journalists and beating them up to try to control the media message. This video gives background on one such incident where a German free lance journalist got beat up just because he got caught in a random photograph and someone claimed he was an “Identitarian” (conservative anti-immigration youth similar to US Alt-Right)

    Tim Cast attack on journalist video

    [] drop the square brackets to view

  49. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting commentary from National Review about CNN and their blindness to changes in the political mood of younger voters, and how their recent effort to use blackmail/extortion to control a private internet poster has backfired big time.

  50. Larry Ledwick says:

    I am surprised it took this long for someone to take this step, although I would have expected him to ask for far higher damages. Now we just need several other cops to join the suit as a class action and bump the damages into the millions.

    Baton Rouge police officer files lawsuit against Black Lives Matters leadership for inciting violence against police officers.

  51. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting graphic map of countries by population. If you realize that once the population of a country reaches adequate education and it has a sophisticated industrial base, then technical progress scales very well with population – – – then in time India and China have the potential of becoming the dominant centers of technological progress.

    In short they each can throw more engineers and scientists at a problem than the rest of the world combined. The only limitations would be cultural (tendency for inefficient use of intellectual capital, bureaucracy, social limitations on the exploitation of technology etc.)

  52. Zeke says:

    LarryL. says, “–then in time India and China have the potential of becoming the dominant centers of technological progress.”

    I have a question for you, which I would appreciate an honest answer to, if you do not mind.

  53. Larry Ledwick says:

    And the question is?

  54. Zeke says:

    My question is this: Were you taught that the West would be replaced by China, Russia, and or India while in University?

    Or did you read Prussian historian O. Spengler some time during or after University?

  55. jim2 says:

    Looks like the Dimowits were actively setting up the Trump team. This will require more popcorn than I can aquire!

    ““We have learned from both our own investigation and public reports that the participants in the meeting misrepresented who they were and who they worked for,” said Mark Corallo, a spokesman for President Trump’s legal team. “Specifically, we have learned that the person who sought the meeting is associated with Fusion GPS, a firm which according to public reports, was retained by Democratic operatives to develop opposition research on the President and which commissioned the phony Steele dossier. “”

  56. Larry Ledwick says:

    @Zeke, none of the above, just an eye toward history and an understand of logistic growth (ie the power of large numbers).

    Just like the biggest high school in the city usually dominates the local foot ball teams because they have a larger talent pool, China and India both have a huge advantage in raw talent to choose from (in terms of numbers). A few years ago, I saw an article that stated that China has more engineers now than all the engineers that ever lived in the US and UK, just because of their size. If they have the same technological base and experience and freedom to excel is a different issue!

    Now there are still social and cultural constraints, if they do not allow their engineers to do engineering because of political or social dogma than they lose that advantage but right now (if they do no collapse due to economic problems or blow up due to demographic problems (one child per family and a generation of angry young men) they are on a trajectory to over whelm everyone. Right now they could single handedly supply the entire worlds steel demand them selves, same with concrete they poured more concrete in the last few years than the US has in its entire life time.

    The physical capabilities are mind boggling (although that also makes the vulnerable to other issues) like crashing the worlds economy with over supply, and what happens if all their exports get shut down by countries trying to protect themselves from having their own industries swamped by Chinese production?

    Internally there is a lot of pressure in China for them to “reclaim” their greatness as a world power they held before they destroyed themselves fighting the Mongols and screwing up their currency repeatedly.

    Militarily they could lose more manpower than the combined death toll of both WWI and WWII and hardly notice the losses except for a minor reduction in air pollution. A casualty loss comparable to the entire population of the US or Europe would only decrease their population by 25% and they could replace those losses in one generation of high reproduction.

    They are the 800 lb gorilla in the room if they want to start breaking things and are rapidly rising technologically to being a near peer or better to the US. In just 10 years or so they will likely match our navel strength in quantity (quality is another issue but the USN has some problems there too).

  57. Zeke says:

    Thank you twice — For answering my query and for emphasizing the qualifiers ie “Now there are still social and cultural constraints…”

    I find predictions of the inevitable Decline of the West and the rise of the BRICs to be a very widely believed forecast. In fact, we have caught tptb in the act of fulfilling these prognostications (which are by now almost unconsciously held by an entire generation), by entering the English-speaking countries into treaties which would actually phase out their energy and agricultural sectors.

    It is a mistake that technology and scientific advances will come from today’s educational system, or from globalists ordering expensive and worthless tech from above. You will just be back in the time of debauched courts and aristocrats ordering faberge eggs. The break from the old world came largely from the introduction of the patent, and from Western freedoms which allowed people to use the resources they had to make things that people want. So instead of faberge eggs for a few, tea sets and paraffin lamps begin to be produced for the many. There is no reason to think that if you do not have these (and other) basic elements within a society, that you will get the same useful results. The only time science is mentioned in the Constitution is that it should be encouraged by allowing a creator to have rights to his invention for a limited time.

    And I know I do not need to remind Larry Ledwick that monopolies/mercantilism/command economics have not contributed to scientific and technological advancements in the way that the simple patent system has, under Western/English law and work and integrity ethic.

  58. Zeke says:

    “It is a mistake to think that technology and scientific advances will come from today’s educational system, or from globalists ordering expensive and worthless tech from above.”

  59. beththeserf says:

    Nassim Taleb in ‘Antifragile’ calls it lecturing birds how to fly. The Romans
    built their aquaducts without benefit of mathematics. The medieval cathedral
    builders built the cathedrals relying on heuristics, empirical methods and tools.
    The main inventions of The Industrial Revolution and technology were much
    the result of trial and error tinkering and the curiosity of the enlightened amateur.

  60. beththeserf says:

    Well., Ian, they would say that wouldn’t they?
    Our ABC and the Supra-national congress-sensational.

  61. Another Ian says:


    You mean “their ABC”

  62. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting comments about President Trump’s speech in Poland and what it signals about a possible “Trump Doctrine”.

  63. beththeserf says:

    Oops – their ABC,
    funded by US.

  64. Larry Ledwick says:

    28 minute video Lauren Southern and Stefen Moleneaux discuss the G20 and Antifa riots and their violent behavior (literally stalking Lauren).
    People on the streets were live tweeting her location to the black block including professional journalists.

    It is shocking that apparently Germany does not realize that they are recreating the conditions that lead up to Kristallnacht in the name of anti-fascism.

    remove square brackets to view video

  65. Larry Ledwick says:

    Just stumbled on this article about General George Patton. Near the bottom of the articles is a comment about how leaders influence crowds — Does anyone see President Trumps public speaking style reflected here?

    Patton has numerous notes in his copy of The Crowd, but one in particular is interesting. On page 57 of his copy, Patton made three hash marks, clearly highlighting Le Bon’s comments on what impresses a crowd—something that the general would use to great effect during the war:

    Given to exaggerations in its feelings, a crowd is only impressed by excessive sentiments. An orator wishing to move a crowd must make an abusive use of violent affirmations. To exaggerate, to affirm, to resort to repetitions, and never to attempt to prove anything by reasoning are methods of argument well known to speakers at public meetings. [6]

  66. Another Ian says:

    E.M. FYI

    “Why SJW’s Are the Worst Mystery Writers (Spoiler Alert: The Culprit is Always Racism)”

  67. Larry Ledwick says:

    Nov 1938 Germany

    July 2017 Germany

  68. Larry Ledwick says:

    I see that La Raza is rebranding itself with a new name “Unidos US”.

  69. jim2 says:

    DNC hack:
    “The initial copying activity was likely done from a computer system that had direct access to the data. By “direct access” we mean that the individual who was collecting the data either had physical access to the computer where the data was stored, or the data was copied over a local high speed network (LAN).”

  70. jim2 says:

    More on the DNC hack:

  71. E.M.Smith says:

    I’m having network issues today. Reset my boundary router, but no joy. Internal networks are fine. Not seeing anything on “attack maps” like:

    So I’m figuring maybe AT&T is “having issues”. I get about 24% packet loss on pings of and can only run one TV on netflix (and then only low res) at the moment. The other times out on loading the app…

    Tablet is cranky on page loads due to time and timeouts, the Linux a bit more robust, but still some pages give grief.

    We’ll see if this comment makes it out.

    It’s prime TV time here, now, so maybe it’s just AT&T prioritizing traffic they own (what net neutrality…)

    Oh Well. We’ll see if it tames down later so I can make a posting…

  72. Larry Ledwick says:

    According to downdetector AT&T is having some problems heat map shows a nice red blob covering most Calif.

  73. tom0mason says:

    If the guess err, hypothesis of AGW holds true and CO2 ‘traps’ heat, and how long does this remarkable illusion err, effect last?
    Consider how long an El Niño warms the planet, how long did CO2 ‘trap’ that heat?
    If it all dissipated how and where?

  74. tom0mason says:

    Oops try again…
    If the guess err, hypothesis of AGW holds true and CO2 ‘traps’ heat, and how long does this remarkable illusion err, effect last?
    Consider how long an El Niño warms the planet, how long did CO2 ‘trap’ that heat?
    If it all dissipated how and where?

  75. cdquarles says:

    Hi Tom, good points.

    There has been much misuse of terms, mainly to deceive, I say.
    1. The thermodynamic temperature is the geometric mean of a defined sample of matter’s constituent’s kinetic energy and *only* the kinetic energy.
    2. Forgotten is that TE = PE + KE.
    3. IR is light, not heat. Heat is energy converted to kinetic energy within, again, a defined sample of matter.
    4. Averaging the surface measurements and reporting only the average, without ranges and/or other measures of central tendency and dispersion, is meaningless. I can average, for example, all of the ‘lotto numbers’ from every lotto world wide. Would that mean a thing in guessing the next draw, either solely locally or for any and all of them? /rhetorical
    5. it is the weather that we are interested in. The climate is a summary of the previously realized weather has been and that’s only meaningful locally. To say it another way, the climate is determined by the weather. The climate does not determine the weather. The weather is determined by local conditions. Some of these conditions are similar to another local area’s conditions (thus are correlated), but extrapolating that to an unsampled area is very uncertain, unless you want only the grossest of descriptions.
    6. Worse, reporting estimated projections/predictions (to me, there is no difference) as if they were exactly what is happening locally is laughable. You can do it, but any match is, at best, coincidence. Should local conditions change due to local biological action (note, nut just from humans), don’t expect your estimates to be worth much.
    7. IR active gases are two-way screens, not traps. A trap physically constrains.
    8. Insulators don’t trap heat, either. They slow conduction losses.
    9. Greenhouses, having solid walls, do trap heated air by design, for they constrain bulk air exchange within the building. The atmosphere does not have a solid wall around it.
    10. Radiative color or brightness temperatures don’t have to correspond to thermodynamic temperatures. At the limit of a black body that radiates solely due to its internal kinetic energy, does.
    11. The ideal gas law is also an abstracted limit. Real gases and especially real vapors, do not follow the ideal gas law. To do highly accurate work with real gases and vapors, you must correct for conditions that the ideal gas law explicitly leaves out.
    12. Henry’s law is a relationship between gas/vapor pressure of the gas(es) in contact with a liquid solvent. If any other reaction takes place between the gas and the solvent, you must correct the Henry’s law relation to take that reaction or reactions into account.
    13. The Clausius-Clapeyron relation is also a limit relation that holds strictly only for the vapor pressure of the gas phase component of a pure substance with its condensed phase component. The presence of other chemicals must be accounted for when doing highly accurate analyses.
    14. Accuracy is not the same thing as precision, which is not the same thing as resolution. Yet, without high resolution measurements, your precision will be lower.

    And last of all:
    15. The easiest person to fool is himself. Before you make vast conclusions from half-vast data and quarter-vast analysis, demand that you ask yourself if you’ve sufficiently taken all sources of error into account, then ask others to try to “find something wrong with it”. Doing this gives greater assurance that you’re on the right path, that your conditional truths cover conditions adequately and that your absolute truths gleaned do not exceed the available information.

  76. Larry Ledwick says:

    Really interesting link about what might have happened during the Gulf of Tonkin incident

  77. E.M.Smith says:


    Nice link. Still showing the Red Blob Of Despair over California, but at least I’ve been able to post a few articles. I’m going to be “posting while the posting is good” and hopefully get some stuff done before the evening TV Rush saturates whatever bandwidth is working…

    God I’m looking forward to contract end with AT&T in April…

  78. Larry Ledwick says:

    File this under interesting military tech, or how to launch an IRBM from an aircraft (see about 1:30 into the video)
    THAAD test video

  79. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting commentary about the recent changes in Saudi Arabia and a new frank discussion of Saudi support for Radical Islam as a political tool. They are beginning to realize that the monster that they created to serve other ends has become like an over aggressive dog a threat to them as well as others.

  80. Larry Ledwick says:

    The Larsen C ice shelf ice berg has now broken free it will probably be officially named as A65 or similar, But so far I have not seen an official announcement to that effect yet from the US National Ice Center as they have not updated their ice berg naming table yet.

    Click to access Notice_Iceberg_Tracking_Criteria.pdf

    Click to access Iceberg_Tabular.pdf

  81. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well isn’t this peace loving and compassionate?

    News flash this is the early stage of an insurgency.

  82. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like they will go with A68 as the formal name of the new large iceberg calved off the Larsen-C shelf ice.

  83. Larry Ledwick says:

    The winner effect? Does success in competitive contests promote more Alpha Male like behavior and create a higher likely hood of winning in future contests.

  84. Another Ian says:

    And – Gawd!

    Your Moral And Intellectual Superiors
    By Kate on July 14, 2017 1:19 PM | 12 Comments

    Journalists setting out to discover middle America… like they were filming a episode of Wild Fucking Kingdom. #Othering#EnemyOfThePeople
    — Katewerk (@katewerk) July 14, 2017 ”

  85. Another Ian says:

    And – “Gawd”!

    “Your Moral And Intellectual Superiors
    By Kate on July 14, 2017 1:19 PM | 12 Comments

    Journalists setting out to discover middle America.”

    And don’t miss the comments in the “Related” link..

  86. Larry Ledwick says:

    An answer to those who think President Trump is not “Presidential” or “dignified” or “Proper” enough.

  87. Larry Ledwick says:

    This is fascinating!
    Snopes of all sources published a very centered rebuttal against many of the fabricated memes that have been generated against President Trump.

    It really is even handed and it shreds some of them that are pure fabrication or just plain biased interpretations of facts, restated to give a false impression.

    This raises an interesting question, has Snopes dropped their usual left bias because the hard core left has completely jumped the shark? Or have they been losing traffic hits because more and more people were realizing that they have been “overly kind” to the left’s messages in the media?
    Or did they make a mistake and actually engage in journalism by accident?

  88. Larry Ledwick says:

    An appropriate quote to raise when the SJWs go ballistic about political correctness and micro aggressions.

    Seen in a twitter post:

    Freedom of expression is
    the foundation of human rights,
    the root of human nature, and
    the mother of truth
    — Liu Xiaobo

  89. E.M.Smith says:


    What is happening is that they are shouting dirt at the top of their lungs and we all got tired of it 2 years ago and stopped listening to them then. Now we just smile and pop the top of a cool one while we light the BBQ….

    @Anothrr Ian:

    Or he could just say he erased his email, bleachbit applied, and burned his diary, then ask what they think of it… It isn’t like there is some law you must tell the paperatzi the truth…

    That Clintonland link caused the spouse to ask if they would ever be brought to justice… while the body keep on piling up… maybe they need a special prosecutor…

    Per hufnpuff visit to caged middle Americans for a zoo look n learn, what I posted at SDA:

    That will be a hoot ‘n a half.

    Wonder what they will do when night comes and it actually gets dark

    How will they handle all the restaurants closed at 9 PM?

    Will they figure out where everyone went before lunch on Sunday?

    Then there is Kansas… 8 hours of corn betwern Denver and Kansas City… You mean we have to plan meal and potty times?…

    Maybe we ought to organize porters and guides for them… Safari America… With human species indentification cards… and photo opportunities.

  90. Pingback: Election Over, Black Lives Matter Doesn’t Matter Anymore? | Musings from the Chiefio

  91. Steven Fraser says:

    Just saw a note… Kasparov is coming out of retirement for the St. louis Rapid & Blitz chess competition in August.

  92. cdquarles says:

    peperatzi. I love it :D

  93. Larry Ledwick says:

    From twitter, Lauren Southern takes a 45 minute walk about in Paris, shows that they city has already changed character due to massive immigration – it is forever changed.
    For good or bad – – only time will tell for sure, but the historic Paris no longer exists.

    Her commentary:
    Published on Jul 15, 2017

    Just stepped outside my apartment, started filming for 45 minutes and didn’t stop.

    *For those who are confused by the point of this video, the point is that France is changing forever due to mass immigration. The people in this video were not speaking French, the women were not wearing their hair in French Braids, they had their head scarves on. When I was driving from the airport I saw people being fed from volunteer aid vans in the Syrian zones and coming up to your cars with signs in Arabic. The posters on the walls and the protesters yelled refugees welcome. Much of what you are looking at is not legal or proper migration and assimilation. France will not be France for long.*

    On July 15 2017, a 45 minute walk in Paris compressed into 7:30

  94. Another Ian says:

    “PHRONEMOPHOBIA – fear of thinking”

    Must be a world wide epidemic as yet unreported!

    (Courtesy of Courier Mail (Oz) quiz)

  95. jim2 says:

    An Austin Band “Dream Machine” was dropped by its label due to a SWJ-type problem with lyrics. From the article:
    “We’ve recently been made aware of some ugly opinions Matthew and Doris Melton of Dream Machine gave in a recent interview in Still In Rock, as part of the promotion for their Castle Face LP that came out last month. Castle Face does not agree with the statements on ICE, immigration, feminism, and sexual assault and they are in no way representative of Castle Face or the other artists on the label.”

    It turns out one of the musicians is a LEGAL immigrant from Bosnia and lived under warfare conditions and knows the real meaning of a “safe space.”

  96. Another Ian says:

    “On” not “oh” though that works too

  97. Another Ian says:

    And yet again the record – isn’t

    “There have been far bigger Antarctic icebergs than the latest A68 Larson C berg”

  98. Larry Ledwick says:

    Wow talk about a solid indictment of the current scientific research in the medical field.
    From twitter
    Mike Cernovich
    🇺🇸 Retweeted
    Rob Schneider‏Verified account @RobSchneider 18 hours ago
    (comments by Dr Marcia Angell)
    After 20 years as editor of the New England Journal of Medicine, this is her conclusion.

  99. Another Ian says:

    “The Uncertainty Has Settled, Critical Documentary About Climate, Agriculture and Energy Now Online”

  100. Larry Ledwick says:

    Okay what is wrong with this picture?
    Even though we have one of the most clueless generations of college students in living memory, 47% of high school students are graduating with a A grade average.


    Click to access tcr2010grading.pdf

    (note chart top of page 2 in this report)

    Click to access 93442.pdf

  101. Larry Ledwick says:

    McConnell supports a clean bill to repeal the ACA with a 2 year delay, then replacement.

  102. Larry Ledwick says:

    Seems we have a new cry baby climatologist like Michael Mann who prefers threats and legal action to reasoned debate of the science.

  103. Steve C says:

    @Another Ian – re Phronemophobia, another likely factor.

    Reading the blurb for a BBC radio prog coming up on Saturday, I found a comment from the presenter (Joe Queenan) which says it perfectly: “The truth is like a vegetable your mother makes you eat. Yes, it may be nourishing, but it tastes disgusting.” And, as the listings mag columnist adds, it seems that our resistance to it is growing.

    The programme, for those who can catch it, is Archive on 4: A Brief History of Truth, this Saturday (22nd) at 8:00 BST: for those who can’t, I’m sure the internet will oblige only a very little later, as it always seems to do. ;-)

  104. Another Ian says:

    “Never Trump Update
    Posted on July 18, 2017 by tonyheller

    NeverTrumpers said Trump would back down on his promise to repeal Obamacare.

    As soon as Trump tried to repeal Obamacare, the NeverTrumpers backed down on their promise to repeal Obamacare.”

  105. Larry Ledwick says:

    Just throw this out here for possible future reference as is seems mighty odd.

  106. Larry Ledwick says:

    This is disturbing especially in view of where Obama care was headed, and early concerns about care rationing. Seems the British health care system is validating all those concerns.

  107. Another Ian says:

    From an email just received – no source listed

    *Is there a ANYONE who is surprised that an Engineer came up with this:
    10,535 pages reduced to 4 sentences?*

    A Great summary by a Notre Dame University engineer……… Here are the
    10,535 pages of Obama Care condensed to 4 simple sentences.. As humorous
    as it sounds…..every last word is absolutely TRUE!

    1. In order to insure the uninsured, we first have to un-insure the insured.

    2. Next, we require the newly un-insured to be re-insured.

    3. To re-insure the newly un-insured, they are required to pay extra
    charges to be re-insured.

    4. The extra charges are required so that the original insured, who became
    un-insured, and then became re-insured, can pay enough extra so that the
    original un-insured can be insured, so it will be ‘free-of-charge’ to them.

    This, ladies and gentlemen, is called “redistribution of wealth” or, by its
    more common name, *SOCIALISM,* or *”PROGRESSIVE”,* the politically correct
    names for *COMMUNISM *!

  108. Larry Ledwick says:

    Dig in Australia shows aboriginal occupation may have occurred earlier than thought from 65K – 80K years ago. This by implication also pushes back when humans started wide spread migration out of the cradle of mankind North Africa / Mediterranean regions which recently studies have suggested earliest humans came not from north Africa but nearer to modern day Syria and Iraq region.

  109. Another Ian says:

    foobert | July 19, 2017 6:04 PM | Reply

    A cloud leak?

    Isn’t that what we call rain?”

  110. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    Maybe leaks from computer clouds needs to be called “Purple Rain” ;-)

    Only once companies stop thinking of I.T. as a cost center and start realizing it is THE corporate asset will security be more than an afterthought.

    What can bad security do? Lose your financials, your customer data, your design and other Intellectual property, your staff information and pay rates, your reputation, and potentially put you in jail (for example SarBox if your email archive is deleted). And more… think any company wants their email for the last 5 years posted online?

    Yet almost all executive management is thrilled to ship it out of the company, to 3rd world destinations with poor IT laws, into the hands of strangers with no ethical, legal, or moral ties to western values. What could possibly go wrong… /sarc;

    Why I have not applied for any Director I.T. positions in about 15 years… maybe longer now. Just got tired of patiently explaining various “well, here is why that’s not a very good idea” things over and over only to be told to do it anyway ’cause they read some magazine article or their buddy at some other company did it…

    Went into contracting gigs instead where someone else has their reputation on the line and is liable for the Stupid Decision AwShit when it happens.

    Just got tired of saying “But Sir, they have 20 machine guns facing our trench” and being told to tell the lads to go over the top anyway, bayonets only, and be a good Team Player.

    After a while, you just can’t Do Stupid any more.

  111. E.M.Smith says:

    Just saw on Reuters,

    John McCain has brain cancer. Fond after the blood clot was removed.

  112. cdquarles says:

    Hmm, that explains much. Thanks, EM.

  113. Larry Ledwick says:

    E.M. you anywhere near the evacuation areas for the Detwiler Fire?
    I have a cousin who had to evacuate yesterday.

  114. E.M.Smith says:

    I’m nowhere near any fire. Middle of Silicon Valley urban jungle. I’d guess a mountain range, big valley, and about 80 miles away…

  115. Larry Ledwick says:

    Good deal, I thought you were down in the valley south of the bay, she lives about 45 miles east north east of Modesto so not too far from Yosemite on the north end of the burn area.

  116. Larry Ledwick says:

    Not sure how many US military veterans we have that visit here, but this appears to be a quiet pro-veteran program from the Trump Administration, that some might want to investigate.

  117. Another Ian says:

    Sounds about right – like socialism /s

    “[Fill in Name of Government Program] Would Have Worked Had the Right Person Been Running It”

  118. Zeke says:

    I am searching for the conversation about isoprenes and other hydrocarbons emitted by plants and trees, but I can’t find it.

  119. Zeke says:

    Oh my gosh, more than I asked for! thanks Chief

    I am having a miserable time finding another comment over on WUWT. I really am totally miserable because I cannot find it. It was about increasing mechanization, but what the commenter was pointing out is that because more production and services could be mechanized, more people could start companies and there would be much more competition and a huge increase in smaller companies. It was a real epiphany and I lost it.

    Also, who is going to be making all of these machines and computers that will be making everything else, Ha! (:

  120. E.M.Smith says:

    Got any key word clues on the WUWT comment? I can test out my search-foo ;-)

    Pointer to a thread, topic, or roughly when would also help, or any posting name / handle.

  121. Zeke says:

    I think CommieBob wrote it. It was an off-topic remark, and I know it was not on the Elon Musk article, which was about robotics replacing every one. It was some time before, on WUWT. But if CommieBob did not write it, then there is no way to find it. Don’t put yourself to any trouble! (:

    Do you know what would be nice. It would be nice if you could click on a screen name to get all of a person’s comments. It might have some good potential in making people behave, and also for history’s own sake.

  122. Zeke says:

    Well I can’t find it in June or July. I liked these comments tho.

    commieBob June 30, 2017 at 9:33 am
    A known source of natural gas is methane clathrate which exists mostly at the bottom of the ocean. It is estimated that those reserves are about twice the reserves of continental natural gas.

    The usual explanation for fossil fuels on Earth is organic, that is, the fossil fuels are the product of plants. However …

    Methane (CH4) is abundant on the giant planets — Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune — where it was the product of chemical processing of primordial solar nebula material. link

    There is the possibility of huge quantities of undiscovered methane on Earth from inorganic sources.

    Behaving as though fossil fuels are in short supply is just short sighted.

    commieBob sayz, “Activists should not also be able to call themselves scientists. Scientists compare poorly with engineers. Engineers have to take an ethics exam, scientists don’t. It shows in the miserable state of science these days. yet another link”

  123. Zeke says:

    Another difference between a scientist and an engineer: an engineer can lose his license.

  124. E.M.Smith says:

    Interesting one on “breakthroughs”

    Interesting one on self sufficient making:
    It is looking like that thread might be the one you want:

    It is quite possible that AI and robotics will change the economics of production such that small factories will be able to produce goods at the same unit cost as the current large factories. link
    We’re already seeing China lose its cheap labor advantage as factories return to America. link
    It is quite possible that America can become self-sufficient in almost everything.

    If that one’s not it, let me know and I’ll run back into the June set…

  125. Zeke says:

    That’s the one! That is incredible. GRACias!
    I hope you liked it too.

    I wanted to support what he said with some additional research about American production. The Reader’s Digest version is that originally, the printing industry in the US was essentially an industry of small business firms, almost half of them employing fewer than 4 people. Also, there were dozens of carmakers in the US, before 3 companies took more than 90% of sales.

    Record companies had a similar story. But production could go small and totally diversified. I could have a little device that makes sugar out of sugar beets or something. Lots of possibilities. And my son says that Sony is pressing some LPs. Those are petroleum products, note to those big huge loud ignorant hypocritical rock stars!

  126. Another Ian says:


    Re “And my son says that Sony is pressing some LPs. Those are petroleum products, note to those big huge loud ignorant hypocritical rock stars!”

    CD’s too. And the fossil fuel content of any other performance spreader/enhancer other than voice power.

    Story is that post WW2 Churchill was on a speaking tour in Canada. In a large auditorium when the pa broke down.

    Looked at the microphone with disgust, hurled it aside, announcing loudly that “Having exhausted the resources of science we will now fall back on nature”.and delivered the speech.

    Think of any rock stars that could do that?

  127. Zeke says:

    Nice Churchill anecdote, Another Ian. I am not going to say anything about the broken teleprompter that DJT folded up during a rally. He said he was not paying the bill for that!

  128. Another Ian says:


    Beyond ridiculous?

    “Climate bargain, going cheap! Pay now, save $Trillions, stop Storms, Droughts, Bad Stuff. Ends today!”

  129. Zeke says:

    Another Ian says, “CD’s too. And the fossil fuel content of any other performance spreader/enhancer other than voice power.”

    You’ll have to excuse me, all of the rock stars I knew made their considerable fortunes selling vinyl records. (:

    Nice long, lovely hydrocarbon molecules

    And they are now rattling on about fossil fuels and hawking worthless wind and solar panels, or “sustainable energy.” Some are collecting payments from other electricity rate payers for the panels installed on their enormous roofs.

    (–Except for the “Fire b@mb a McDonald’s” one, she’s not.)

    And like the “Phoanie Joanie” cartoon, traveled the country in planes and limousines denouncing the free market, pavement, and American industry.

  130. catweazle666 says:

    “Also, who is going to be making all of these machines and computers that will be making everything else, Ha! (:”

    The bloody Chinks of course!

    Who did you expect?

  131. E.M.Smith says:


    Please avoid ethnic slurs. Just part of being polite and keeping a tidy place.

    Per the who makes what:

    We already have machines making machines. Automated machine shops are all the rage and those that make tooling especially. Computer fabrication happens at the micro level where it’s all automated. Only final assembly is sometimes a bit manual. All soldering and surface mount parts are machine placed and automated solder equipment.

    Essentially up to finished board level it’s automated with people just doing the tending.

    Per the world devolving down into small shops of craft sized:

    Everyone loves to focus on the mechanical side of manufacturing scale and forget about the financial and marketing “economies of scale”. I can make soap and detergent in my kitchen ( I have…) and even put a page up on Ebay to sell it., but what I can’t do is buy raw materials at the extreme discount of Proctor & Gamble or have the marketing buy clout of any company buying $100 Million at a crack.

    The whole reason “rollups” happen where a single company starts buying up the competition is that the technology has matured and the economies of scale and IP have moved from patents and new invention to one of “bigger financial and brand clout” and consolidation of whatever IP already exists. So initially you have a dozen car makers, then it turns out that a Pontiac isn’t much different from an Olds from a Buick from a Chevy… and whoever has the most cash starts buying out the other ones. All made on the same line, common financing and common advertising budgets.

    NONE of that “goes away” just because it is assembled with small robots or 3D printed. Big companies will get greater discounts on the purchase of that equipment, lower costs of electricity to run them, better leases on larger buildings to house them, lower costs of advertizing and branding, sales and distribution, etc. etc…

  132. Zeke says:

    “Big companies will get greater discounts on the purchase of that equipment, lower costs of electricity to run them, better leases on larger buildings to house them, lower costs of advertizing and branding, sales and distribution, etc. etc…”

    Now this is getting especially interesting! What Chief is saying is of course axiomatic and is not up for debate. However, the reason the big companies buy up the smaller ones is because they are successful and are offering an item that people like. The truth is that the smaller company developed in local conditions, using what resources were available, and created something that people want. It also created a lot of opportunities for the employees during the decades before it caught the notice of the larger company. I drove a light truck for a small bakery, which did so well that eventually Sara Lee bought it. We all moved on, but the smaller companies have plenty of room for success: the large companies would not buy them in the first place if it was not an amazing niche developed by the entrepreneur.

    And so all those years, before the big bakery bought the little bakery, you had excellence, choice, and opportunity. And that is what the diversity of businesses provides. That is the original foundation of American genius and technological advancements.

    If any one has ever taught American history, you know you will get to that chapter about Rockefeller and Ford, and Carnegie. But they had competitors, and it was those competitors who actually kept the ideas moving forward, who made discoveries, who provided the alternatives which people could always turn to. So the real challenge is to the mistaken “great man” template of history. That is a very bad model and if there was time, we could utterly debunk it.

  133. Zeke says:

    So maybe my grandpa did not get his Pennsylvania oil from a RR tanker, but got fuel from a Texas oil field, delivered on a fleet of Texaco trucks, all driving on dirt roads that were given a light oil treatment to keep down the dust. Cullinan went to Texas, and eventually as a young man had a fleet of these:

    Now I’d like to see the look on the Rockefeller faces now that huge reserves have been found again in Texas.

  134. E.M.Smith says:


    Oh, and you are very welcome for the search / find. It was a nice chance to see if I still had the touch ;-)

    Per Scale:

    It’s a very interesting bit of economics, organizational behaviour and growth / death of industries. Believe it or not, there are actually classes taught about it (and I had it in school).

    One of the key bits in the transition is when the “little guys” run out of innovations to make that really matter. You can see that in cars.

    In the beginning there were real differences. The original Cadillac had things like disk brakes and independent suspension (IIRC) while the early Olds had really big engines. Heck, even in the 1950 ( I owned a 1956 Olds Holiday…) they had a 4 speed automatic transmission. They were the “Hot Car” used by police of that era.. Eventually it reaches the point where they can’t be “disruptive” enough to take market share from the guy with lower costs and it becomes a game of “fattest wallet wins”. That’s when the “rollups” start.

    For cars, that was the ’40s and ’50s. The era of “financial wizards” who basically just figured out efficient ways to leverage the bigger wallet. So General Motors formed and bought up Cadillac, Chevrolet, Pontiac, Buick, etc. etc. Ford bought Mercury and Lincoln (and maybe some others). Then Studebaker (who started making horse carriages for the old West and Mid-West with a stellar reputation) bought up several brands to become American Motors (Rambler and maybe it was Packard or Hudson). And Dodge Brothers and Chrysler merged. Those two eventually also merging into a newer American Motors.. that eventually bought up Willy’s / Jeep / Eagle and then was bought by Mercedes who later sold it to Fiat where it rests today… all happening as the car makers went global and folks like GM bought Opel and other “overseas” brands).

    So the USA went to the “big 3” (it would go to the “Big One” were it not for anti-monopoly laws) and is now at the “Big 2 + Fiat”…

    So Tesla comes along with a new disruptive technology. He’s got a niche just as long as the Big Boys don’t technically match him. After dissing and avoiding the costs of change for a couple of decades (remember that GM first leased an electric car, then promptly retrieved them all and crushed them back about the ’80s?) by window dressing, GM is now committed to the Volt. Tesla’s days as an independent company are numbered…

    As long as Tesla can get continued funding at a low enough price it can hang in there. As soon as they falter, at all, and costs to borrow go up, GM can undercut them on financing and flooring costs. Then they are going to have a stock price stumble to “reasonable” levels and someone will commit merger on them. I’d give it about 5 years.

    It’s a general property. VW now owns Porsche, Audi, and several other brands. I’ve lost count of them all. (They bought several British ones). That kind of thing continues as long as technical change is low and laws don’t prevent the “absorb and remove from the market a competitor” process. In the end, we ought to end up with about a half dozen players in 3 batches. European, Japanese, and American. For now, the Koreans are making a big dent and the Chinese want to play too, so that’s a bit disruptive on the cost side. Don’t know how long that will take to play out. Some countries will want indigenous car makers for the ability to make combat vehicles on their own, so some will stay as niche players in more restricted markets.

    You can see the flip side of this in the supercars. Things like the McLaren. Highly specialized tech for a vary narrow (and eye wateringly expensive) niche. They survive as there isn’t enough profit there to bother the Big Boys who don’t sell into that niche.

    So that’s the stability end point. An oligopoly (few sellers) of giant size and a few niche makers of highly specialized products.

    Now, get out of the bulk manufactures markets and into things with smaller Minimum Economic Size where most often personal service matters most, then you gets lots of small makers. Things like Hot Dog Carts. You care more about the guy serving you than the name on the cart. Economic size is ONE Cart. Franchise operations try to bridge that gap with known branding and shared advertizing, along with quality standards. That makes visitors comfortable stepping up. But the Local Guy with Local Clients can still win the local market. (Thus my car mechanic who is always booked solid despite nearly no brand recognition nor ‘scale’…)

    Bet you could never tell this was one of the subjects I really really liked in school ;-)

    Economies of Scale and Minimum Economic Size vs
    DIS-Economies of Scale and Maximum Economic Size.

    Most folks only ever hear about the first line and don’t even know the second one exists… yet it drives most of our total economic structure…

  135. Zeke says:

    Well chief, maybe you think the Tesla is a genuinely disruptive product but I don’t. A disruptive car would be one that people like that is not computerized, and a person could do the same thing with tractors. There are thousands and thousands of patents in the US, and a little retro-simplicity might be the next thing.

  136. E.M.Smith says:


    I don’t know why everyone, almost without exception, seems to think it is about me or what I think….

    It does not matter one whit of a whittle if I think it is disruptive. All that matters is that the market thinks it is disruptive. The market does. It is selling enough to be an issue, and has caught the attention of the power brokers (thus being promoted). GM has decided it is enough to start pushing the Volt despite NEVER really giving a damn about electric cars.

    None of that involves me.

    So the folks in government who think it is disruptive (and want it shovel $Billions of subsidy at them) push subsidy laws.

    The folks at GM who think it is disruptive start pushing the Volt again.

    The 10s of thousands of folks who by cars who think it is disruptive buy them.

    etc. etc. all without ME thinking it disruptive, or not. I just observe. It isn’t about me.

    So once that social / governmental / industrial mix of folks decide it is ‘disruptive enough’, the market responds, as it is. Eventually that becomes enough of an issue that one of the Big Guys “takes care of it”. Either by making a better electric car (showing it to actually be really technically a disruption of the 100+ years of gasoline car tech) or by buying it out and killing it (just to eliminate an annoyance) or occasionally to buy it and keep it running in a niche just to have a corporate reputational trinket to advertize with.

    That’s what happen, no matter what I think about it.

    Personal Opinion:

    I visited an IEEE members meeting of some sort in Palo Alto over a decade or two ago. Don’t know exactly when. A presentation was given by one of the head engineers about all their cool tech at Tesla (before anything was being sold). We got to sit in the prototype and take a lap around the parking lot (they drove) if desired and you stood in line long enough. Their tech IS interesting, good even. I don’t consider it ground breaking in any particular way. IMHO too many parts in the parts count of the battery… but they think that a ‘feature’.

    As I remember it, their tech was:

    1) An interesting motor design / mount system. Nice, but nothing particularly unknown prior. All from “prior art” well engineered near as I could tell.

    2) Nice body / chassis design, but nothing really new.

    3) A battery pack made of standard industrial AA lithium cells. New benefits: Better ability to cool the battery due to small units. Significant work on heat sensing and management. Lower costs from bulk buys of industrial standard COTS components. (Common Off The Shelf).

    4) A very intelligent charge controller / power unit. It monitored the state of each cell, knows when one is failing and swaps it out of use. Looks out for hot spots and makes sure nothing bad happens. A couple of other neat bits I don’t remember clearly enough but basically computerized battery management both in charging and discharging. This was new, then.

    That’s it, really.

    My opinion then, and now, is that the motor / body / chassis is stuff anyone can do or copy. The battery is an advantage and a curse. We all know what happens to computer batteries over the years and they do NOT allow individual cell swapping (only the computerized history keeping thing can swap out failing cells and idle them… after enough are gone – i.e. the spare capacity gone – you replace the whole pack). This caused some “bricking” issues when the computer powered down in full discharge. Reputedly fixed, but I don’t know.

    That leaves the very smart heat management / charge controller. OK, that’s a step forward, but all it takes is someone with a better battery to make that irrelevant.

    So I was “Nice car, not really exceptional” then, and the same now.

    End of opinion.

    So I also missed that Musk would go into the subsidy farming business and make a success of it. My bad.

    But he did, he has, it is disruptive in the market (whether due to subsidy, buyers, tech, or actual product doesn’t matter) and the same economic processes will play out. No matter what I think about the product.

  137. Zeke says:

    The mandates to add EVs to the electrical grid, which was designed and built to provide electricity to homes and manufacturers, are indeed going to be “disruptive.” So you are literally correct.

  138. Zeke says:

    We have enough objective observers. We could take a poll. (: Is Tesla EV Disruptive Tech or is it disruptive tech?

  139. jim2 says:

    It would be interesting to see what disruption might occur in case of subsidy withdrawal. Looks like wind really blows without a subsidy.

  140. Larry Ledwick says:

    The disruptive aspect of electrical cars is the change in the consumer needs/wants and the topography of the transportation industry.

    In real terms internal combustion engines are still much more efficient than the electric cars if known technology was fully utilized (without being strangled by government regulations that hobble those improvements).

    High efficiency small displacement direct injection turbocharged internal combustion engines are capable of thermal efficiencies comparable to large power plants (not counting their line losses).
    Thermal conversion better than 40% of available fuel energy is achievable with technology that has existed for 10-15 years or more. The total infrastructure costs needed to move into large scale electric cars (charging stations etc.) is a hurdle which will take 30 years or more to over come. Lots of folks are going to get rich selling charging stations and installing them etc.

    It is the shift in public acceptance of electric cars not the fundamental technology that has allowed them to become somewhat competitive (both marketing wise and operationally) with internal combustion engine powered cars.

    It is that sea change in demand and perception of them being desirable, plus artificial limitations on what manufactures could do with conventional engine powered cars (ie process driven regulations rather than results driven regulations) which has made them remotely marketable.

    With early 1960’s engine technology, some advances in understanding of lean burn engine design pioneered in the 1970’s married with modern computerized controls you could easily build 50+ mpg cars at a fraction of the cost of electric if the government got out of the way.

    The electric cars are not objectively “better” just more fitting with current market mood. In the long run they will drive some real improvements like high efficiency electric motors etc. but it mostly a marketing victory not an engineering/design victory.

  141. Larry Ledwick says:

    Speaking of disruptive technology and public perception of various industries and processes, will we see actual economically viable mining in space in our life time, bringing rare resources to earth at industrially competitive prices?

    Who sets up the first Moon Regolith cement factory to allow cost effective construction of prefab stressed “Regocrete” panels and beams for habitat construction on the moon?

  142. E.M.Smith says:

    Lunar titanium and asteroid Platinum Group Metals, nickle and chrome will be the big first impacts. Best use if in space, but even a modest asteroid reshaped into a lifting body and deorbited into a shallow sea collapses the high prices of those metals.

  143. Larry Ledwick says:

    UN plan to swamp Europe the US and Japan with migrants was discussed in a planning document in the year 2000
    (archived here)

    Executive Summary:

    Click to access ExecSumnew.pdf

    Chapter on America:

    Click to access USA.pdf

    News item that led me to the documents:

  144. Larry Ledwick says:

    Note that rampant immigration pressure was a key aspect of the expected problems which would crash the worlds society when it was published in 1972.

    We are seeing the results of actions planned over 50 years ago. This runaway immigration problem is not an accident of poor planning or incompetence but rather and carefully cultured toxin to destroy the west as we know it.

  145. E.M.Smith says:


    Not surprised. The UN is utterly corrupt top to bottom and resents the role of western democratic states in preventing their take over of the world.


    Now I’m really confused. Just who’s side is who on? So we’re against ISIS, and so that makes us on the same side as…. hezbollah…

    Yeah, it’s from 2014, but I saw a reference to the same sides in the news tonight, so it’s been going on for a few years now.

    Seems to me like every tribe and faction is fighting every other one in the middle east. How any western government thinks they can pick a ‘side’ to endorse in a rotating circus of alliances is beyond me… and apparently them too…

  146. E.M.Smith says:

    Or maybe it was Hamas I heard about tonight:

    February 17, 2017 2:59 am

    With Israel on the Sidelines, Hamas and ISIS Fight in Gaza

    avatar by Yaakov Lappin /

  147. Larry Ledwick says:

    My comment above was about “The Limits to Growth” some how I left it out of the comment about immigration pressure when it was published in 1972.

    The only thing that puzzles me is how are TPTB thinking they are going to come out ahead if they destroy the golden goose?

    There has to be some pay off other than financial, perhaps an ideological pay off, because many of the major supporters of such efforts (Soros) are the very image of what the third world supposedly hates – – – just how do you get folks who hate what you are to think you are their champion and even if you are throwing billions of dollars at their agenda, how do you plan to come out on top when the big tent gets pulled down?

  148. Larry Ledwick says:

    It is easy EM just think of them as Klingons, they are a warrior society that believes in blood feuds.
    There is nothing you can do to bring peace to that part of the world until there is a fundamental social / cultural change.

  149. E.M.Smith says:

    Two points;

    “They” do not expect to fail nor to have a collapse. “They” are in charge after all, and they can’t possibly cause a failure.

    Since the Bildeberger thing started and Masons accepted the Koran as a book to swear on,
    it seems that the SuperRich are fully convinced they, collectively, are above it all and will never live in the same manner as the riffraff; and further, that any riffraff will do for the worker bees. So as long as they all agree on how to split up the world, who cares what riffraff live where or die trying. Just make sure labor costs are low and profits are good…

    Note that Princess Di was happy to pal around with a Saudi Prince… Just one big club, don’t you know… So if you have a few $Billion and he has a few $Billion why not import some of his excess to work in your factories cheaper… “win win” after all… (Social upheaval? Well, riffraff are like that anyway….)

  150. Larry Ledwick says:

    I can see that. If the “sales pitch” is just for the peons to scare them into moving in the right direction, it sort of makes sense.

    I made the not necessarily correct assumption that they were rational and objective in their analysis. Of course the stock brokers who blew up the market in 1929 thought they were above it all to, just like the bull fighter never really expects to get gored, and the arsonist never expects that he just might get burned by the fire he starts.

    The down side of that realization is that if you accept the fact that the lunatics are running the asylum your only option is to try to dig a safe hole to hide in if the wheels fall off, because by accepting that premise, you have to acknowledge you have very little if any useful input into preventing the conflagration. All you can do is rent a room close to the fire escape.

    I think I will go see if Amazon sells asbestos underwear at a good price.

  151. jim2 says:

    WRT Middle East, I don’t believe we understand that culture very well at all. I read (maybe here?) that Assad is essentially the head of a tribe and the entire tribe will die for him. I think we were better off when we backed the strong men in the Middle East, propped them up, and tolerated their actions that don’t comport with our sensitivities.

    WRT electric cars, I certainly don’t find them desirable and don’t know many who do. Not exactly what I would characterize as a “sea change.”

  152. E.M.Smith says:

    Assad is head of a 10% religious minority that runs the place. Alawite I think… sort of Shiia while most of the country is Sunni…, IIRC. ISIS /ISIL is Sunni… pretty sure if they lose control they are extirpated.


    Asbestos causes cancer and is stiff and uncomfortable. It has been replaced with nomex long johns…


    FWIW, while I mostly agree with the “make a hole”, there is a small possibilty for progressive failure (grin ;-) to take out only a few countries before the rest catch clue and abort it. (After all, THEY like abortions so ought to go along with it ….)

    My “bet” is that we are seeing that now. In Europe, the UK and Eastern Europe breaking away from the process. Russia saying no. In North America, the USA doing a big fat Trump middle finger at them and saying “Hell No!”.

    So I’m projecting (snicker…) Germany is demographically and culturally toast, France wounded, but a small slaughter can fix that (remember they invented The French Haircut), Eastern Europe will be OK and Russia will survive some minor war damage (nobody but ethnic Russians seem able to survive a Russian Winter when fuel is cut off…). The UK has a chance, but unclear which way it goes, rather like WWII… will there be a new Churchill?

    That ought to happen well before the USA is too damaged. The South here has deep roots, especially rural. So my intent is a bit of land in a rural area and a pad to park the RV, with enough woodlot to stay warm and cook… hopefully only used on holidays, but…. so if Northern Urban Centers go all riot, I don’t care. If nukes from The East Asia Area start landing, well, they don’t target empty nowhere… and if fallout looks a problem, a tank of gas later I’m up wind.

    I’m pretty sure China and Japan stay culturally pure and stable. India stays the mix it is, mabe minus a few million (but would they notice?) after a Pakistani /Chinese 3-way.

    South America won’t change much in the next decade either, nor Africa (though the top half has lots of islamic war…)

    Australia and New Zealand unknown. Depends on if the folks there see the danger and actually do something, or not. Could just be an On The Beach safe space, or could go Mad Max. Depends on the folks who are not talking to the news…

    You net-net that, it is mostly Central Europe that’s toasted. I suspect the Italians , Spanish, and Greeks to be like the Eastern Europeans once the money bribes, pardon, bailouts, end… but with more violence in the recovery. They’ve done it before.

    But what if it goes more pear shaped?

    The wild card is The Islamic World. It could collapse just from food shortage, or from internal wars, or from external resistance, or it could raise a new Caliphate. Just too much wildcard to say. If Turkey starts the Ottoman Empire game again, Greece is sunk and maybe the Balkans too.

    The one thing I don’t see is any path to peace and prosperity. That never arises in all of history during times of change of the domibamt religion and ethnic blending. (Presently much of The West is in transition from Christianity to Secular Humanism. History says that will result in collapse of empire… so the EU goals are incompatible…)

    In the end, played right, China is the ultimate global victor with the USA as has-been you don’t want to fight. China will be happy with that.

    Timeline? Very unclear. Could be as fast as five years (see Turkey and the quest for new empire) or as long as 20+ if the EU pauses but doesn’t stop and Trump buys the USA a decade of stability.

    20 years out, the New Little Ice Age either ends stability in chaos anyway, or collapses the EU Plans in a blody renaissance of Europe Nations. Just too many possibles.

    So I’m figuring 5 years to get that nice remote place and go fishing ;-)

    All the while hoping I’m dead wrong…

  153. cdquarles says:

    About electric cars, like so many fashions, what was old becomes new again. What will make this ‘disruptive’ is going to have to be a fundamental breakthrough in materials such that cheap pumped electrochemical fuel cells become competitive with compression/spark ignition. Do people not know that when GM was created in the 1920s that Pb/PbO/PbO2/PbSO4 battery powered cars competed economically with hydrocarbon fueled ICE powered cars? Fixed mass batteries may compete if there is a breakthrough in materials there, too. Lithium batteries were just such a modest breakthrough in materials. Still, it was a rather modest one.

    Why do I say pumped electrochemical fuel cells? Because this rock will *never* run out of hydrocarbons. They’re too common in the universe for that to happen.

  154. jim2 says:

    “The Assads are originally from Qardaha, just east of Latakia in north-west Syria. They are members of the minority Alawite sect and belong to the Kalbiyya tribe”

  155. jim2 says:

    “The 1963 Syrian coup d’état was led by three Alawites: Salah Jadid, Muhammad Umran and Hafez Al-Assad.[13] Assad was from the Kalbiyya tribe,[14] Umran from the Khayyatin, and Jadid from the Haddadin.[13] Following Assad’s seizure of sole power in 1970 (the Corrective Movement), part of his strategy was to concentrate control in the hands of members of the Kalbiyya tribe.[13] In practice, active participation in the Assad government has, since then, been limited to members of the Kalbiyya tribe.[15]”

  156. Zeke says:

    I am going to use the ozone-inator in an experiment.
    I like old books. I have 20 encyclopedia sets and my family doesn’t trust me because I might be sneaking out to get more. Most are clean to very slightly musty smelling. But my step-dad’s new love just sent me a set of 1910 Bibles, which were her grandfather’s. It is a really beautiful set with very nice plates, but this is the mustiest set I have ever had in my house.
    So I am going to stand them up, fan out the pages, and run the ozone-inator in a small room, for two hours. We’ll see.

    That was the device I got when we were talking about atmospheric electrical breakdown at the poles creating ozone. It already worked on an antique traveling trunk.

  157. jim2 says:

    I had an ozone machine in the lab once. It will crinkle latex gloves in a heartbeat. If pure and plentiful, It will oxidize any organic material, for the most part, it touches. Be very careful, especially if these are valuable!

  158. Zeke says:

    The instructions said to remove plants and animals, etc.. But I will try it at half an hour instead since you said that and proceed with a little more caution at first. Thanks jim2. I think it kills the mildew/microorganisms though!
    It is the Old and New Testaments. It is the most valuable thing you can have (:

  159. jim2 says:

    This seems a bit more gentle:
    “Removing Mold and Mildew growth from the Pages of a Dry Book:

    Slide a sheet of waxed paper underneath the moldy page to protect the page behind it. As in the step above, use a soft brush to carefully remove any obvious mold or mildew. Dampen a soft cloth with hydrogen peroxide or denatured alcohol and carefully treat”

  160. E.M.Smith says:


    As with all such things, test a small area first. Ozone and peroxide bleach some dyes and inks. Alcohol dissolves others. Both can damage paper.

    Mildew is near impossible to erradicate. It can survive beach washing on a boat in full sun and return. Simple drying seems to halt growth though.

  161. Larry Ledwick says:

    It appears that the new king in Saudi Arabia (if this is true) is a reformer and trying to relax some of the strict social regulations in the kingdom.

  162. Another Ian says:


    A different problem with books.

    Usually a book that becomes waterlogged dries out with the pages distorted.

    After a major flood we found that freeze drying got around the distortion. Not equipment that is in common use though.

  163. Larry Ledwick says:

    Regarding mold

    Sounds like a box of 20 mule team borax powder will solve your problem.

  164. Zeke says:

    These books are beautiful, and there are no visual spots or anything, so I was trying to fumigate the entire book, in a way.

    I know that other things, including the UV in sunshine, help with antiques but the problem isn’t just on one page. Ozone did work with the old trunk, but the books still seem musty after an hour in a large room. I can put them in a barrister shelf by themselves I guess and try again. So jim2’s lab ozone-inator must have been a more pure treatment. Is this how labs are sometimes disinfected?

    Larry is trying to kill me. If any one here gets mad at me, just give me a blanket washed in Borax.

  165. Larry Ledwick says:

    In the yeast production business they use formaldehyde to sterilize their equipment to avoid contamination of the yeast strains.

    You might want to touch base with a large library to find out how they would treat a heirloom book like that. I have heard that they do some fumigation type treatments but don’t know anything about details.

  166. Larry Ledwick says:
  167. Zeke says:

    Thanks all for the book preservation tips. Still an old book has a right to have a little musty aroma.

    Perhaps Mrs. Chiefio might like to look into Borax. It looks much much safer to mix with other compounds XD

  168. jim2 says:

    In the bio lab, ethylene oxide is used, but that’s not easy to get :). I second the motion to ask the library or even enquire at a professional restoration company. It might not be all that expensive.

  169. pouncer says:

    Zeke: “Still an old book has a right to have a little musty aroma.”
    Or, perhaps, has an obligation to…

    Rubert Giles, super-librarian, on the topics of computers, knowledge, wisdom, and musty books:

  170. beththeserf says:

    E.M. doesn’t ‘ see any path to peace and prosperity.’

    How do you go when you’ve got the enemy within as well as as without?
    That U.N. 2000 Report, so above the crowd, modelling countries’ migration
    programs, a fifty year plan, scenarios,1,11,111, 1V, V, V1, supposedly to
    replace declining populations and increase jobs and tax revenues.

    Click to access ExecSumnew.pdf

    It’s solution, madness of the crowd replaced by delusions of the U.N and EU
    globalist elite, Merkel’s open borders influx of unscreened immigrants from
    the middle east, unskilled and many (most?) hostile to western values. Not
    going to increase the well-being of the European Union but will increase
    welfare costs and insecurity. Former UN ambassador Alan Keys comment
    on the unrestrained immigration, ‘it’s an existential threat.’

  171. E.M.Smith says:


    The first half was “better case” then there’s the line about “what if it goes pear shaped”. So I did see a good case, just not rosy. The no peace and prosperity was below the pear shaped cut.

    The “good” case is that Central Europe collapses into a mess fast enough that the USA can step back from the cliff in time. Bit of a mess in the EU, but we in North America have watched Europe self immolate a few times before and we did OK.

    The bad case is things slow walk enough in Europe that the USA et al in the west end up on the ropes at the same time, AND the Islamic World implements their takeover effectively.

    Unfortunately, it isn’t clear which way things fall yet.

    So I’m hoping for the best, but planning for the worst.

    With a lifetime record of the UN never being reduced, I’m not seeing much reason to expect it now.

  172. beththeserf says:

    In Europe the ghost of Bismarck rules.

    Hope your good case eventuates, E.M. but its hard to make predictions,
    especially about the future. One, thankfully , the pundits got wrong was
    the election of Trump.

  173. Larry Ledwick says:

    So now they want to have your robotic vacuum cleaner map your house and feed the info back to the “smart home” appliances so they can be aware of the space and furniture.

    Top end Roombas now have cameras, so depending on their field of view you will have a little robo-spy in your home and not even know it.

  174. beththeserf says:

    1984, subtle update 2017, Larry.
    Think I’ll go back to my witch’s broom. ———<

  175. LG says:

    “One of the country’s foremost experts on catastrophic engineering failures released a new report Thursday on the troubled Oroville Dam that asks a disturbing question: Is the country’s tallest dam leaking?”

    The article

    The report:

    A couple of notable passages from the Report:

    Report 1: Oroville Dam Leaking? 50yr Proof of “through the dam” leakage? Will

    the dam breach? Oroville Dam may be facing a breach danger from a serious and a

    dangerous form of a slow motion failure mode of the left abutment of the dam. Recently,

    authorities to the dam have responded to the public stating “its a natural spring”, or “the

    green spot is from rain”. Yet, outside of a public forum, DWR asked the Federal Energy

    Regulatory Commission (FERC) to move a test drill well near the leakage to try to get

    answers in 2016. If it’s known to be a harmless “natural spring” or from “rain” why drill?

    Why hasn’t DWR publicly announced that they have a “test well” near the leakage area,

    which they noted to FERC, quote “data collected may be beneficial in understanding

    seepage”? However, DWR’s recent town hall meeting’s answers, by DWR engineers and

    representatives, do not stand up to honest engineering scrutiny. The public deserves an

    honest technical risk assessment of this known dam failure mode threat.

    Report 2: Oroville Dam Breach? DWR Investigating Leaking – Hasn’t Revealed

    This to the Public – Oroville Dam may be exhibiting a dangerous failure mode from an

    effect known as “Differential Settlement”. This phenomenon occurs by sections of the

    dam “compacting” at a different rate. Thus, internal forces are applied to the center of the

    dam that has known to cause loss of the integrity of the core, cracking of the core,

    clogging of the internal drainage system, and longitudinal cracking along the interface

    between embankment zone fill materials. Historic failures of “Differential Settlement” at

    dams has found a critical component that risks the danger from the dam having an

    abutment with a “sharp abutment” slope change. A first sign of this alarming problem

    would be unexplained seepage, wet spots, or greening areas on the back side of the dam

    (to which Oroville Dam is exhibiting).

    Report 3: Oroville Dam History Images, Reveals Clues to Dam Leakage? What

    Should be Done? Mysteries to the clues of Oroville Dam’s leakage revealed in

    historical dam images? Does DWR/DSOD already know that there is a leak through the

    dam from inspection reports, yet they are keeping this from the public? Why push the

    narrative of “rain falls…then grass grows” when the public should be made fully aware of

    a potentially serious precursory dam failure mode? What should be done to guarantee that

    this leak is not at an accelerated threshold risk threat if there is greater “unseen” leakage?

    Report 4: Oroville Dam Leak? With All Internal Dam Water Sensors Broken? No

    Breach Warning? An earthquake induced leak or if an internal erosion defect develops,

    deep within the earthen fill zones at Oroville dam, DWR would have no warning, nor the

    ability to do an immediate slope stability assessment, as the numerous dam’s internal

    Piezometers are non-functional or dead. FERC has been asking DWR to fix this issue for

    years, as it’s a major Dam Safety Issue. Why hasn’t DWR responded? Why does the

    tallest earthen dam in the U.S.A. have zero working Piezometers to detect any threat to a

    potential internal instability to warn citizens of a pending breach?

  176. E.M.Smith says:


    Well, that’ distressing….

    As I remember it (from about 60 years ago before the dam) it was hard to get ground water in wells above Oroville. One property had sunk a 700 foot well and got something like 1 GPM. Enough, but not during dry droughts.

    Also, IIRC, the let side (assuming you look from downstream?) was a hill / ridge with downslopes on both sides. The abutment placed where the scoured the dirt back to rocks. IMHO, the necessary precursors for a persistent “natural spring” do not exist on that ridge. Not much land up top to absorb water, steep slopes to drain surface waters quickly, and not very permeable rock just a dozen or two feet under the surface.

    In those hills, “natural springs” were fairly rare. Dad went out of his way to point them out to me whenever their was one. He sold real estate there and I’ve walked over lots of it with him and buyers / sellers. Water was always discussed. In the valleys, not much of a problem. Ground water from about 70 feet in poor spots up to 10 feet in the best ones. (One place, in Palermo, just south of Oroville, had dug a pit for a swimming pool and got 4 foot of water in it… so didn’t do the pool but did irrigate easy ;-) Once you left the valley and went up into the “red rock hills” water was a big deal as often there was none. You wanted lots of soil up slope, well toward the middle of a valley or draw, deep soil under you if possible. Hard to find on red rock hills…

    So right out the gate I’d demand proof that “natural spring” had been there before the lake filled.

    It also needs to dry up in summer. IFF it is a ‘natural spring’, it will drain the soils ‘up slope’ rapidly (unless replenished from the lake…) and ought to be dry brown in August. That is, it ought to be a seasonal seep, not a year round spring. You just don’t get those part way up a short ridge with rocky core and thin soils.

    **WTF***!!! The sensors are fried and they haven’t fixed them? Someone needs walking papers.

    The Engineer who designed the place did not put sensors in just to be entertained. They serve a purpose. No sensors, that purpose is a FAIL. Typically, they are to inform decisions about movement, settlement, risks, etc. Not things you want to be making “flying blind”.


    Oh Well, I don’t live there anymore and by the time the flood reaches my “old home town” it will be too slow to excavate the family plots… I’d expect that even the town itself would be OK. most of it 3 feet above grade (due to historic floods) and about 5 or 6 miles from the river (with canals and banks and dikes between… the folks in that 5 miles will be in bad shape though… and Marysville will have an issue as the water hits there and joins the other river (South Fork?) They have nice dikes and a dirt bike park in the spreading zone, but the flood will spread out before that upstream of the city and wash around it. Olivehurst likely toast.

    It ought to be easy to show if it is a leak, or not. Seasonal changes. Historic photos. Heck, just check the water for degree of fish poo nitrogen ;-)

    The cement core is very large. IMHO nothing can move it in the way of a breach. That leaves the ‘fill” zone as the risk (and most of the water is above the core). IFF the seep gets big enough to be an issue, they can likely drop the water level enough to mitigate to about 1/2 a disaster in maybe a month. Depends on height of the wet spot (not read the links yet, just the headlines).

    Given the attention n the spillway, I suspect TPTB will be paying more attention to complaints about lack of maintenance at Oroville… At least, one hopes.

  177. E.M.Smith says:

    OK, looking at the pictures, the “left” side is on the right and the ‘green areas’ are ON THE DAM not on the abutment. That means, by definition, it isn’t a “natural spring”.

    There’s more ground water available on that side of the dam as it is a longer bigger ridge. It could be a diversion of natural downslope flows into the dam face.

    IIRC, even in the ’70s, there was a green patch about there. It doesn’t get as much sun as the other side, again IIRC… as it is shaded through much of the sunrise by the ridge. Then side lit as the sun sets.

    I’m much less worried at this point given that it is NOT seepage through the abutment and is relatively high up on the dam face. IFF it also tends to brown out in August to September, I’d not care about it at all. Just a collection spot of rainwater in the face collecting enough to grow seasonal grasses.

    The dam is faces with large rocks. Water will be away from most of the surface and rapidly moved away from evaporation spots. I could easily see seasonal rains making a wet spot with enough dirt in it to grow grasses. I remember seeing grasses on the face “way back when”. Mostly seasonal and I remember a lot of brown in late summer.

    Still bothered about the sensors, though…

  178. jim2 says:

    A little fluorescein dye would settle this pretty quick.

  179. E.M.Smith says:

    Looking closely at those pictures, it matches my memory of that side of the dam from the ’70s. It has not significantly changed. I remember noticing that ‘stuff was growing on the dam’ even then, that it was uneven, and that it was closer to the observation deck (on that side). I also get a direct “bits match” report on the visual memory match. Nothing flagged as changed much.

    I also remember wondering, at about 12 years old, if the grass was going to grow and cover the whole thing. “Some adult” said most likely not as the soils were poor and most of the dam was too dry. But seasonal weeds would likely fill in over time (they can grow out of concrete…) So another cross check on remembering stuff growing there right after built.

    IMHO, that invalidates the differential settlement idea. It had not had time to settle by then.

    I’m going with hardy plants, mostly seasonal growth, and a small area where the dam face concentrates the rain collection (as all walls tend to do, there’s a spot maybe 1/2 inch lower than everywhere else and that’s where the puddle forms…)

    As to the “water doesn’t flow up hill”: I suggest he fill the bath 1/2 full of water, then lay a towel over the edge. One end in the tub, the other to the floor. Soon enough the tub will be empty and the floor very very wet… No, not “flowing”, but water does move up hill… about 30 feet worth is the max, IIRC.

  180. Jon K says:

    Interesting thoughts on automation and the potential effects on China.

  181. Larry Ledwick says:

    On the fuel shortage meme – we have this news that two different researchers have developed catalysts that work to convert CO2 to long chain hydrocarbons like gasoline from a mid point input stream of methanol.

    Sorry Al Gore we ain’t running out of hydrocarbon fuels any time this millennia.

  182. cdquarles says:

    Old news, Larry. I recall zeolites that did that back in the 70s. Must be some one found a few more.

  183. LG says:

    Might it be worthwhile to contact the CCRM and share your observation ?
    Just in case, a link tot the contact page:

  184. cdquarles says:

    The joke among my chemist colleagues back then (mid to late 70s) was that you could make any carbon containing compound you want using ethanol (methanol is a bit more tricky, but you get the point), a reaction path and catalysts. The punch line was that it wouldn’t necessarily be cost effective ;P.

  185. Larry Ledwick says:

    Old news, Larry. I recall zeolites that did that back in the 70s. Must be some one found a few more.

    The older ones as I understand it made the first conversion of methanol to light hydrocarbons like ethane, these make the jump directly to longer chain hydrocarbons like Octane – at least that is the implication of the article. There were some news briefs a couple years ago that catalysts had been found that worked in the lab, these may be the same critters reduced to mass production commodities.

  186. Another Ian says:

    Now you kniow – –

    Bill Greenwood | July 25, 2017 3:29 PM | Reply

    You’re misinterpreting this. A moderate Muslim advocates for the murder of Jews. Extremist Muslims call for the murder of ALL infidels. It’s a subtle difference…”

  187. Larry Ledwick says:

    Sea level is now falling according to NASA satellite data.
    Is this a first hint at general drop in global temperatures and more snow and ice cover?

  188. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry & the Zeolites:

    Early zeolite was natural, then they could make it (in about the ’70s) but the process was hit or miss. Generally it was expensive and a bit dodgy to keep a steady process going and the folks who had a magic sauce to make a reliable source of zeolites kept it close to the vest.

    In about the 90s? making zeolites got down to orderly business. Now we can pretty much customize exactly what we want out of them (plus some other ‘molecular sieves’) . Folks are busy custom designing them and then patenting them.

    So in the ‘early days’ you got a mix of stuff from ethane to octane and more, then treated it like a feed stock for refining. Now you get much more yield of exactly what you want as the zeolite is more consistent throughout the batch.

    FWIW, this advance in catalysts is why Platinum and Palladium have had a big drop in price since about the ’80s (peak Platinum was something like $2400/oz.? now closer to $1k). Cars no longer need an ounce of platinum group metals each… some oxide based catalysts do the trick, IIRC.

    So yeah, I’ve been harping on that since the ’80s when “The Mobil Oil Process” was used in New Zealand to turn their natural gas into gasoline. (ZM5? catalyst? Some zeolite…). It has become more efficient since then, and especially making the zeolite more specific, effective, and cheaper has proceeded nicely. If they’ve advanced to where it’s one step to clean gasoline, that’s wonderful news. But that zeolites do this in some degree is old news.

    @Another Ian:

    IMHO, it is already clear that Silicon Valley is “maturing” and isn’t the place it was just a decade ago. Venture capital not as interested, far fewer small startups, a lot more retail and appartment blocks, fewer industrial and technical support companies. That trend can’t go on forever.


    I’ll think about it, but there are thousands of folks with the same memories and photos… and more importantly, I don’t see them believing any old duffer remembering things… they will depend on seismic imaging and test wells…

  189. cdquarles says:

    Yeah, EM, that’s it. Mid to late 70s people started synthesizing specialty zeolites. It was big news back then, given the ‘we can’t be dependent on foreign oil’, never mind politicians were pushing us in that direction. [Disclosure: some of the work I did then was synthesizing oil from, ta da, cellulosic stocks, since ‘we must go to renewables’, never mind that the economics didn’t work. Some day, sure, and that’s when we’ll do it.]

  190. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    Well, the Amerika article focuses a lot on sdvertizing, likely with some reason. Misses the rot in the foundation of Silicon Valley… that we don’t do much at all with silicon or fabrication anymore… It’s all internet and software, which, as they point out, is much more hype than reality.

    I agree completely with what they said. Unfortunately, it’s a lot of what I thought when the likes of Facebook and Google first came out, so I’ve not owned their stocks other than a part of funds, despite knowing about them at the IPO. (Or in the case of google and ebay prior to that).

    Sometimes seeing the end game gets firmly in the way of fleecing everyone else prior to then…

    I’d guess at least a decade before the FANG group starts showing big problems though. There’s still time for another rabbit out of the hat…

  191. philjourdan says:

    @Larry – Re: Sea levels falling. It melds very well with my theory that we will all parish in a conflagration of ice fire.

  192. E.M.Smith says:

    FWIW, I’m going to be busy for the next day or two so posting may be sparse. Y’all will need to keep the interest up among yourselves for a while ;-)

    I’ve got many ideas queued up, but the issue is when I’ll have keyboard time to deal with the writing and QA part. I’m hoping it goes fast, but you never know.

  193. LG says:

    In Case Anyone Missed This.

    MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
    FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
    SUBJECT: Was the “Russian Hack” an Inside Job?

    The Time Sequence

    June 12, 2016: Assange announces WikiLeaks is about to publish “emails related to Hillary Clinton.”

    June 15, 2016: DNC contractor Crowdstrike, (with a dubious professional record and multiple conflicts of interest) announces that malware has been found on the DNC server and claims there is evidence it was injected by Russians.

    June 15, 2016: On the same day, “Guccifer 2.0” affirms the DNC statement; claims responsibility for the “hack;” claims to be a WikiLeaks source; and posts a document that the forensics show was synthetically tainted with “Russian fingerprints.”

    We do not think that the June 12 & 15 timing was pure coincidence. Rather, it suggests the start of a pre-emptive move to associate Russia with anything WikiLeaks might have been about to publish and to “show” that it came from a Russian hack.

    The Key Event

    July 5, 2016: In the early evening, Eastern Daylight Time, someone working in the EDT time zone with a computer directly connected to the DNC server or DNC Local Area Network, copied 1,976 MegaBytes of data in 87 seconds onto an external storage device. That speed is many times faster than what is physically possible with a hack.

    It thus appears that the purported “hack” of the DNC by Guccifer 2.0 (the self-proclaimed WikiLeaks source) was not a hack by Russia or anyone else, but was rather a copy of DNC data onto an external storage device. Moreover, the forensics performed on the metadata reveal there was a subsequent synthetic insertion – a cut-and-paste job using a Russian template, with the clear aim of attributing the data to a “Russian hack.” This was all performed in the East Coast time zone.

    On July 9th 2017 , The following scenario was advanced:

    The Forensicator stated in their analysis that a USB drive was most likely used to boot Linux OS onto a computer that either contained the alleged DNC files or had direct access to them. They also explained to us that in this situation one would simply plug a USB drive with the LinuxOS into a computer and reboot it; after restarting, the computer would boot from the USB drive and load Linux instead of its normal OS. A large amount of data would then be copied to this same USB drive.

    In this case, additional files would have been copied en masse, to be “pruned” heavily at a later time when the 7zip archive now known as NGP-VAN was built. The Forensicator wrote that if 1.98 GB of data had been copied at a rate of 22.6 MB/s and time gaps t were noticed at the top level of the NGP-VAN 7zip file were attributed to additional file copying, then approximately 19.3 GB in total would have been copied. In this scenario, the 7zip archive (NGP-VAN) would represent only about 10% of the total amount of data that was collected.

    The very small proportion of files eventually selected for use in the creation of the “NGP-VAN” files were later published by the creators of the Guccifer 2.0 persona. This point is especially significant, as it suggests the possibility that up to 90% of the information initially copied was never published.

    The use of a USB drive would suggest that the person first accessing the data could not have been a Russian hacker. In this case, the person who copied the files must have physically interacted with a computer that had access to what Guccifer 2.0 called the DNC files. A less likely explanation for this data pattern where large time gaps were observed between top level files and directories
    in the 7zip file, can be explained by the use of ‘think time’ to select and copy 1.9 GB of individual files, copied in small batches with think time interspersed. In either scenario, Linux would have been booted from a USB drive, which fundamentally necessitates physical access to a computer with the alleged DNC files.

    The Forensicator believed that using the possible ‘think-time’ explanation to explain the time-gaps was a less likely explanation for the data pattern available, with a large amount of data most likely copied instantaneously, later “pruned” in the production of the Guccifer 2.0’s publication of the NGP-VAN files.

    Both the most likely explanation and the less likely scenario provided by The Forensicator’s analysis virtually exclude the possibility of a Russian or remote hacker gaining external access to the files later published as “NGP-VAN.” In both cases, the physical presence of a person accessing a containing DNC information would be required.

  194. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting background story (part 1 of 2) on the 20 year long Pakistani intelligence operation, inside our government and recent arrest.

  195. Larry Ledwick says:

    Here is part 2 of 2 (these articles came out in 2012 but with the recent arrest by the FBI they make good background info)

  196. Paul Hanlon says:

    I’m not sure if it is linked, but a WH Anon went on to 4chan and said there would be significant activity on or around the 27th, tomorrow, and that it was going to be big. He said that the arrest of the Awans would be the trigger.

    Take that with a grain of salt, but I’m hoping it’s true, if for no other reason than to explain the bust up between PDJT and Sessions. It just makes no sense otherwise.

  197. E.M.Smith says:

    That is some IT OOOps!

    Exposed all Swedish records and may topple the government… yeah, that’s big…

  198. Larry Ledwick says:

    EU is getting ready to try to push Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic into accepting refugees. This may be the opening round of the collapse of the EU when added to Brexit.

  199. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting hints about where high performance aircraft (ie 6th gen fighter) and a few other technologies are going. (read between the lines a bit in a couple places)

    Hmmm offensive laser in a C-130 gun ship for special ops – – – Veerrry interesting!

  200. Larry Ledwick says:

    On a related defense topic, France “temporarily” nationalizes a ship yard to prevent Italian majority ownership, to “protect our strategic interest in ship building”.

    “The decision has one sole objective: defend France’s strategic interests in ship building,” said French finance and economy minister Bruno Le Maire.

  201. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting article on taxing robotics as a way to soften the move to AI and massive job losses.

  202. Larry Ledwick says:

    For those who have an interest in the vaccine debate, an interesting article about the realities of modern vaccination and how it impacts susceptibility to infection of the population at large.

    Is there really any basis for assuming that unvaccinated children pose a risk to others?

  203. jim2 says:

    It seems that polio vaccine kind of proved the point about the utility of vaccines. Measles too? How much proof is needed?

  204. E.M.Smith says:


    Have a tab open somewhere about a Russian? Fighter with an air-to-air laser…

    Robot taxes:

    Well, given they don’t pay social security tax, of other payroll taxes, or income tax, I’m seeing a very unlevel competitive field… but I’d rather eliminate those taxes on labor than add them to robots…

    The big problem being when does factory automation become robotics? Is the optical system that rejects blemished fruit a robot? The scale that dumps underweight ones? The automatic bag filler scale?

  205. Larry Ledwick says:

    It seems that polio vaccine kind of proved the point about the utility of vaccines. Measles too?How much proof is needed?

    The point of the article is that there are various vaccines with different intended outcomes, you cannot just lump them all together as being unconditionally good. Each disease has its own risks. In the case of measles, if caught in the childhood years is relatively benign and provides life time immunity. The vaccine does not provide life time immunity, and leads those vaccinated vulnerable to infection years later when it becomes a high risk disease.

    The polio vaccine which eliminated polio is no longer being used because at current infection rates it would kill far more people than it would save. All medical procedures have risk some not obvious.

    The flu vaccine for example is useless for people over 50 as they long ago acquired life long immunity to all the major flu virus types due to actual infection, where the flu vaccine only produces temporary benefits, while adding a real risk of secondary undesirable medical outcomes.

    There is a very big difference between a well tested vaccine against a stable and slowly mutating virus like tetanus and a vaccine like the flu vaccine which is literally a wild ass guess blend designed for the virus “think” will be most important this year, and each years blend is essentially a new and untested vaccine with the potential of having unexpected outcomes.

  206. E.M.Smith says:

    Per vaccines:

    You can think of stable vaccines, for things like tetanus, as being “called by value”, it doesn’t change. Where vaccines like the flu are “call by name”, and each year the “thunk” computed for that function is new and different…

    FWIW, a good friend of the spouse spent her life in a wheelchair due to the polio vaccine. She is now dead as folks in her condition rarely live to old age.

    Do not ever think vaccines are all safe and effective. They are faustian bargains where the benefits are good for most, but can be horrible for a few.

    On a population basis, typically worth it, but hardly an unblemished good.

    Individuals MUST be allowed to make their own choices.

  207. Steve C says:

    For anyone who hasn’t already picked up on the Mercedes AA Class, Paul Homewood has just put up a link here. Truly, a revolution in electric vehicles.

  208. jim2 says:

    Looks like plenty of people over 50 die from the flu. Where did you get the idea they are immune?

  209. jim2 says:

    Trying again:

  210. philjourdan says:

    FWIW, a good friend of the spouse spent her life in a wheelchair due to the polio vaccine. She is now dead as folks in her condition rarely live to old age.

    @E.M. – What is defined as “old age”? Just curious. My aunt (and godmother) had it when she was 15. She has been a paraplegic since then, but raised 4 children (mostly on her own), and is still going well at 82. She suffers from post polio syndrome so does need mechanical help getting into and out of her chair now. But other than that, she is very alert and alive.

  211. cdquarles says:

    Where did this idea that natural infections from influenza give you life long immunity? This is certainly not true, for the influenza virus is one of the most mutable zoonotic viruses in the world today. Indeed, that’s why the vaccine must shift antigen types each year.

    Re the polio vaccine, well the original one was an attenuated live virus vaccine. Basically, we flooded the world with the attenuated version sufficient that the ‘wild’ virus is primarily the vaccine strain. Of course, this strain can and does revert to a more virulent form.

    Another point about the influenza vaccine is that it is aimed at shortening an acquired ‘natural’ infection’s course such that said person does not get the usual killer here, which is the secondary bacterial pneumonia. In the old days, the mortality code was influenza *and* pneumonia for these cases. Did that get changed? /rhetorical

    About individuals must be allowed a choice. Yes, but if that choice gives a communicable disease to someone else, then that’s a different situation compared to when said choice does not have that result. I have no natural right to give another person a disease if I can help it. Vaccination is a much lesser thing, to me, than quarantine is, in terms of personal liberty.

  212. Larry Ledwick says:

    jim2 says:
    28 July 2017 at 1:02 pm

    Looks like plenty of people over 50 die from the flu. Where did you get the idea they are immune?

    You are jumping to a conclusion not stated. If you are exposed to a specific virus and survive the encounter, you develop life long immunity to that specific virus. That immunity comes in the form or much more effective immune response if you are exposed at some future time to that exact same viral agent You also get an immune reaction head start on very similar viruses.

    That is what I was talking about, not a blanket immunity against all flu viruses even strains that do not exist yet.

    The natural immune response to an infection stimulates a wide ranging immunity. Popular viruses (like killed virus types) do not activate all aspects of the natural immune reaction, they only improve the ability of the immune system to recognize an antigen and tend to speed up its response to some aspects of the immune response. This artificial reaction also fades over time (which is why you need re-immunization and booster shots).

    Flu is a rapidly mutating virus (actually several families of viruses) so the strain popular this winter will likely have never been seen before although it will be highly similar to its parent strains. Therefore no vaccine can protect against a virus that does not exist when the vaccine is developed. The commercial virus vaccine is a cocktail virus of what immunologist “think” will be the strains most active in the coming season. It is literally a shot in the dark like a lottery ticket, aimed mostly at giving the immune system a slight head start (if they guess correctly) and diminishing the symptoms of infection of what ever strain is going around because those immunized are in theory able to recognize the viral agent quicker and because of this slight head start have diminished symptoms and in theory lower mortality.

    It is not intended to and cannot “prevent infection” of a virus like flu which will never be exactly the same as the pre-blended vaccine cocktail expects.

    Older people who are healthy already have an improved response because they have been exposed to and survived innumerable bouts of flu over their life times – hence the intended advantage of the flu vaccine is of no advantage. (ie mortality rates of vaccinated elderly and unvaccinated elderly are very similar) plus since those who have been receiving the vaccine for many years only have part of the immune reaction that they would if they had developed natural immunity to the same strains as those who experienced natural infection and immunity development.
    The elderly are at higher risk of dying of all causes, flu and its complications being one of them. If the flu vaccine worked those vaccinated would have a measurably better chance of surviving a bout of the flu. Studies do not show that this happens.

    The point here is, that annual flu vaccination “has no medical benefit for the elderly” (ie it does not reduce their mortality) and has a statistically demonstrated likelihood of causing other problems like all medical treatments. Detailed studies have proven it is actually not a desirable medical treatment, as it does not reduce death rate.

    For example in 1980 approximately 15% of the elderly were vaccinated, in 2001 that vaccination rate jumped to 65%. If the vaccine was safe and effective there should have been a substantial drop in mortality due to flu in the elderly during that period. There was not! If you quadruple the use of an effective treatment you should see a comparable reduction in infection by about a factor of 4. The studies show no such measurable improvement in infection rates – therefore – like climate studies their assertions of safety and effectiveness are based on bad data, bad studies or commercial interests in selling vaccines, not on proven benefits.

    This Journal of Preventive Medicine and Hygiene article discusses some of the complications in such studies (ie why they don’t actually prove what they are asserted to prove).

    Simonsen et al. [9] observed that the finding of reductions ≥ 50% in all-cause mortality for vaccinated elderly during influenza season is implausible, considering that influenza accounts for a maximum of 10% of all deaths during influenza season [47] and, therefore, influenza vaccine could at most prevent 10% of deaths, even if the vaccine efficacy was 100% in the elderly. Furthermore, estimated risk reductions for vaccinated elderly are not specific to seasons with a matching between the circulating and vaccine influenza strains. Nordin et al. reported large reductions in risk of death and hospitalization in vaccinated elderly in the 1997-1998 influenza [33], characterized by a mismatch and during which a RCT found no vaccine effect in healthy adult workers [48]. Moreover, the greatest apparent vaccine benefit has been observed before influenza season, when no effect is expected [5]. Two further studies [5, 47] are of particular interest. In 2005 Simonsen et al. conducted an ecologic study [47] and reported that, despite substantial increases in vaccine coverage (VC) from about 15% in 1980 to ≥ 65% by 2001 in elderly, rates of winter excess morbidity and mortality have not declined during this period. If the estimated mortality reduction of 50% by influenza vaccine is real, the observed excess mortality rate should have decreased with increasing VC [12]. Second, a large cohort study [5] assessed the risk of death and hospitalization in vaccinated and unvaccinated elderly in both influenza and non-influenza periods. The study confirmed that vaccinated subjects 60-69 years-old were at lower risk (44% for all-cause death) during influenza season, but revealed a larger risk reduction before the onset of influenza season (61% for all-cause death), when the IVE is expected to be 0%. Therefore this finding suggests the presence of confounding and any estimated difference in risk between vaccinated and unvaccinated elderly during this period is related to bias. Similar bias were found in pre-influenza estimates of the association between vaccination and other outcomes, including hospitalizations for pneumonia or influenza.

  213. jim2 says:

    As you point out, each year flu strains are different and as CIO said, an educated guess is made as to what strains go into the vaccines. Different strains have differing degrees of virulence. Therefore, year over year comparisons are sketchy at best.

    At any rate, I’ve had a flu shot every year for the last twenty years with no adverse effects, other than a mild fever once. In that case, I know for sure there was an immune response. Even if the strain isn’t spot on, it still helps.

  214. Larry Ledwick says:

    I have never had a flu shot and never seem to get sick with the flu – it seems to be a useless endeavor to me. Maybe for someone who is constantly coming down with severe flu infections or has an other wised compromised ability to fight the flu and needs every advantage they can get it might, if nothing else provide peace of mind (or make them unnecessarily careless thinking they are protected )

    I strongly support vaccination for things like small pox, and polio etc. where the virus is stable and predictable, and consequences of infection are catastrophic. If by comparison the risks of the vaccine is small.

    I grew up during the polio scare years, I actually was one of the very earliest recipients of the polio vaccine. I also got it several times. I got the early injection form, and both the Salk and Sabin oral vaccines.

    But that said, I have always had highly effective immunity to the flu. In 1957 when we had a major flu outbreak I was the only person in our household who did not get seriously sick. I occasionally get a really bad cold (if I go too long without proper sleep) but am largely asymptomatic with the flu maybe a day or two of feeling blah and a mild headache and that is about it. (and then only a couple times in my lifetime)

    The more difficult question, is my resistance to flu infection due to an effective immune system, and general good health or due to my personal habits. For example I almost never push a “push to enter” door open with the flat of my palm, but habitually push the door open with a closed fist and my knuckles. On a pull to open door, I never put my full hand into the pull handle but almost always pull it open with one finger at the very bottom of the handle (where people are unlikely to grab the handle). I tend to never rub my eyes with my finger tips but use the back of the index finger with a closed fist. I don’t like socializing in large crowds (bars, theaters etc.) and don’t tend to do things that cause me to wait in long lines of strangers or tightly packed crowds like night clubs.

    Do those habits simply reduce my exposure to such a low level that I never reach critical inoculation levels that overwhelm my immune response?

    Hard to say and those sort of influences are not addressed in large statistical studies.

    EM looks like I muffed the bold close in the post above – sorry about that!

  215. jim2 says:

    I treat doors and door handles similarly to you. I use my side-of-body to open push in doors and minimize contact with pull handles. I wash my hands and if I feel it necessary use hand sanitizers. I’m not fond of crowds and hate public transportation. I try to remember to keep fingers and hands out of contact with eyes, nose, and mouth. I’ve had the flu a couple of times, IIRC. I get sinus infections and colds, so based on that, I’ve preferred to get a flu shot.

  216. philjourdan says:

    @Larry – I am like you in these respects. I do not get the flu shot and rarely get it. However my wife gets it every year, and she gets the flu almost every year (she insists it is food poisoning and I do not argue with her even though I have been told by a Food Safety inspector it is NOT food poisoning).

    When the Chicken Pox vaccine first came out, I did not get it for my children – for the very reason you have listed. It is a mild illness and the vaccine could be a lot worse. So 3 of my children got it and got 3 days off from school (which the oldest hated as it broke her perfect attendance string). But I am not against vaccines. Primarily due to the whole Polio issue. I know many are worth the risk. But not every one is. And that is what I am against. It is the “even if one child” mentality that is actually destroying our children! The opposite of good is perfect, not bad.

    For those who want the flu vaccine, get it! I chose not to. for those that want their kids vaccinated against the common cold – go for it! I would never get it. The virus is mild compared to the risk.

  217. Larry Ledwick says:

    On voter registration irregularities we now have this report which establishes a prima facie case that there is significant voter fraud.

  218. Another Ian says:

    “Forget geoengineering planet, lets drug and modify humans instead — Shrink your kids”

    Jo’s summary

    “But his work is a great example of why we need to get academic research out of the hands of academics.”

  219. pouncer says:

    An issue about vaccines I believe is under-discussed is related to compulsory, age-segregated, public education. Our society tends to round up all the free-range or wild five-year-olds (or 3 & 4 year olds) into herds of 18 to 24, lock them into small enclosed spaces for hours per day, and allow them to share, trade, mutually and reciprocally steal, or just put into each others’ mouths any loose furniture, tools, implements, or pieces of food any of them happen to have in hand. (Older children nearing ((from either direction in time)) puberty have been known to put their own tongues into each other’s mouths, in absence of other objects.)

    An individual problem with headlice becomes a problem for the whole herd, or a whole building of two dozen herds … Ditto any transferable evil from rude habits and foul language up to polio, pertussis, syphillis, and antibiotic-resistant tuberculosis.

    There is no vaccine for lice but we do impose rules on families regarding other contagions. But these are intended to mitigate a risk that COULD be lessened by other means. Perhaps, we might simply allow those who evaluate risks differently to opt their own individual specimens out of the herd.

  220. Larry Ledwick says:

    On Korea’s missile test here is an estimation of the missiles range.

    The missile reached an altitude in excess of 2300 miles, which using a rule of thumb, implies a range in a minimum energy ballistic flight of about 2x that maximum altitude or 4600 miles more or less. The short ground range of 620 miles indicates the missile was fired nearly straight up.

    The above article suggests it is capable of exceeding that 2x max altitude range by a significant margin (about 2.8x) which could be a fudge factor to give them the range estimates that they want (putting major US cities within theoretical range) – or they may know more about the missiles specifications and performance such as did it burn all its fuel?

    Never the less they are clearly closely approaching ICBM capability and will only improve as they continue testing and research.

  221. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting video on how “fake news” is really using social engineering methods to steer the audience to a preconceived view of reality (catering to a confirmation bias) or simply to use social engineering methods to prompt clicks for money.

    Not really earth shaking news to folks who watch this sort of thing, but an interesting way to frame the issue.

    video on how “fake news” is really just using social engineering methods

  222. jim2 says:

    Certainly hygiene has gone a long way to beating down disease, but when an immigrant brings in a case of measles, it spreads and measles cases spike up in that localized area. Hygiene simply isn’t enough. And from what I’ve read, it’s the un-vaccinated that end up with measles.

  223. Larry Ledwick says:

    Measles is an interesting case, it is literally one of the most contagious diseases known to man, until the advent of the vaccination almost everyone caught it in childhood (when it is a relatively benign disease). There was no need for a vaccination until the vaccination was developed, because you had nearly 100% herd immunity.

    Once they started vaccinating against it, that nearly 100% lifetime herd immunity disappeared and was replaced with a crippled immunity granted by high vaccination rates and a vaccination effectiveness of about 95%-98%. As those people age and the partial immunity of vaccination deteriorates you now no longer have 100% herd immunity but a population of susceptible individuals composed of the vaccinated and those vaccinated who have a weakened immune response due to their age and elapsed time since vaccination. So now, because of the vaccination program you actually have a more susceptible population to infection than you had prior to vaccination. When an infectious person comes into the generally disease free population there are large numbers of people who now can come down with the disease including those who have received one or more vaccination.

    In a very real sense there was no need for the vaccine until there was a vaccine in wide use. It is an engineered problem created by the medical community trying to protect against a relatively mild childhood disease (mortality less than 0.001). In the 1950 parents would hold measles parties so their kids could get the disease when someone came down with it and receive life long immunity. As noted here in this article, the immunity provided by vaccination wears off . The natural mortality rate of measles is in the range of 1/10 of one percent of those infected (ie 99.9% of those infected recover with no side effects – especially if they catch it in their mid late childhood). That is why in the 1950’s it was considered low risk to intentionally infect your children if the opportunity arose to prevent them catching the disease as an adult when complications are more common. The vaccine itself only produces antibodies in 95-98% of those who receive it so even those who get one or two doses of the vaccine may still get the disease if exposed. The problem is that the vaccination program itself also has risks just like catching the real disease ( the US vaccine is an attenuated live virus type inoculation ) which has been positively associated with febrile seizures

    As I noted before “it is complicated”

    If you want to spend a couple days reading, there is this study of risks which discusses the MMR vaccination – one of its conclusions is:
    Causality Conclusion 4.4: The evidence convincingly supports a causal relationship between MMR vaccine and febrile seizures.
    (see page 161 of 895)

    Click to access adverseffectsVaccines.pdf

    The question is far too complicated for simple yes no absolute conclusions and certainly does not support branding those who choose not to vaccinate as careless or stupid. Like other complex health choices it is a very complex problem and freedom to choose must be maintained. Even when Polio was a major health concern the vaccination for polio was still a voluntary choice. Some paid a very high price for choosing to get vaccinated, others paid a very high price for choosing not to get vaccinated.

  224. E.M.Smith says:


    IMHO, old age is qualifies for social security. YMMV.

    She wss 40-something, IIRC. But her paralysis resulted in breathing problems and coughing to clear lungs never worked right. One hand could work a powered chair controller and a stick. Needed a service dog to pick stuff up, for example.

    @Larry & Jim2:

    Having worked in hospitals, I am very cautious about door handles too. Plus hand wash before any food touching, and after, and after touching animals, or people, or…

    Don’t get sick much anymore… plus the spouse was a teacher for many years… if it existed in the area, we’ve been exposed…

    I had real measles, a couple of times (or if you like, real & German measles). Spouse & her twin never got them. The twin was exposed while pregnant, but no bad thing happened; then they both got vaccinated, I think… I remember from way back sometime, Moms had measles parties. If a kid had them, others were brought over to play so as to get it out of the way when young and less an issue…

    I also had one mump…

    Flue a couple of times… and various pox… and I lived…

    On Polio vaccine, it was new when I was about 7? I too, got both shots and oral of a couple of kinds. There were kids in braces from polio in my school. Glad it is gone, benefits far more than damage, but folks must be able to chose that risk themselves.

    Oh, and smallpox vaccination… I got one of those too. No longer given as risk now exceeds benefits against a nearly extinct disease..

    I do think we are giving way too many way too early as gangs of bugs at once. We are overwhelming the semi-developed immune systems too fast.


    Yeah, the enforced daily germ exchange… bad idea…

  225. Larry Ledwick says:

    Carrier USS Ford (CVN-78) makes its first arrested landing and catapult launch of an aircraft after commissioning. Looks like they have the basics of the new linear motor electric catapult system sorted out. It will of course take time to prove its reliability.

  226. Pingback: Tips – August 2017 | Musings from the Chiefio

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