This is another of the W.O.O.D. series of semi-regular Weekly Occasional (i.e. if I forget and skip one, no big) Open Discussions.

Immediate prior one here:
and remains open for threads running there (at least until the ‘several month’ auto-close of comments on stale threads).

So use “Tips” for “Oooh, look at the old shiny thing!”
and “W.O.O.D” for “Did you see what just happened?! What did you think about it?”

For this week, I’m going to toss three topics in the hopper:

1) 4, yes FOUR, US Navy vessels get bunged up in the sea near China? So what’s with that? Speculation ranges from us being incompetent to someone playing games with GPS to arrange the collisions. I’d not be at all surprised to find out China is playing games with “commercial” vessels to “send a message” to the USN to get out of “their” water.

2) I’m posting this from my “Dirty Driver” box. It’s a 64 bit Odroid C2 running Debian. I first reviewed it a while ago and it still has ‘teething issues’. Good enough for a system used for “posting and browsing” but not stable enough for serious compute / security work just yet.

Examples? Well, first off, if you “reboot”, it dumps you into a maintenance failure mode. Can’t find it’s eMMC if I read the logs right. But I’m running from micro-SD card. Cold boot from power off works fine. (Somebody needs to clean up the reboot process…)

Another? Being SystemD infested, I’d had no problem bringing it up on my inside network by adding an entry in /etc/network/interfaces. Moving to the outside network (just inside the Telco router and outside my ‘private side’ office net) I edited the same file to change the IP numbers. No joy. Well, after a bit of fiddle… IF you use the “network” thingy under Preferences in the menus, it shows only one DNS server. The one it had from “inside”. Despite my listing 3 in the interfaces file. Somewhere, Something, (I suspect SystemD) was SURE it new better than I did… So I was forced into doing it “Their Way” – after figuring out where that is… that took a half dozen shutdown-restarts as “ifup” and “ifdown” didn’t seem to do anything and reboot is broken… But I got through it.

Again, nice fast fine box, once running right… and you don’t do things “the old way”… and don’t expect occasional things to work… But, for now, it’s working fine as a posting spot and general browser. Since the “Dirty Driver” (exposed to all the internet…) is supposed to be “reset” from time to time, I don’t mind that I might need to do an occasional new system install or “whatever” on it.

3) Trump in Phoenix: Reuters pitched this with the headline “Trump Rally In Phoenix Ends In Tear Gas”… IF I’m remembering what they said correctly. While the images, even heavily edited, showed happy peaceful folks inside and the cranky obnoxious rioters outside getting gassed all held anti-Trump signs… Headline OUGHT to have been: “Snarky Soros Inspired (paid..) Faux Protestors Pushing a Color Revolution Get Gassed For Breaking Law”… Oh Well. Did anyone see if he’s actually pardoned Sheriff Joe yet?

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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181 Responses to WOOD2

  1. llanfar says:

    During Trump’s speech he said he wouldn’t do anything about sheriff joe last night to avoid being controversial…

  2. Larry Ledwick says:

    From twitter:
    This idea that we are in the early stages of a Mao like Cultural Revolution is very thought provoking!

    Unfortunately the generation most likely to support this process have no knowledge of memory of what happened in China during their Cultural Revolution or other countries like The Soviet Union and Cambodia when the dogs of citizen revolution are let loose.

  3. jim2 says:

    64 bit Odroid C2 has an eMMC slot and a SD slot.

  4. philjourdan says:

    Sorry, I have to comment on Hillary’s book. She walks in FRONT of Trump, and then says she was creeped out! He was standing behind his lectern!

    Yet she did not appear to be creeped out at his wedding.

    So now I guess women can yell rape if they set upon a male and then decide he is a “creep”.

    The YSM has really trashed their own selves with this one.

  5. Power Grab says:

    I don’t have good references to offer, but I saw two comments online today. One said that there was an EMP that crippled both the McCain and its “attacker”. They were totally without power at the time of impact.

    The other item I saw was TV news video from last night’s Phoenix rally that showed an antifa guy kicking a tear gas canister back towards the police (out of frame), and then the kicker (while trotting backwards, facing the oncoming police phalanx), was shot in the family jewels by what appeared to be a pepper bomb. Needless to say, he went down writhing and was semi-carried off the street by a fellow rioter. Then the camera panned to the right and you could see the police advancing like a Roman guard in tight formation, with shields and full riot gear. Someone is a crack shot with a pepper bomb shooter (whatever they’re called)!

  6. E.M.Smith says:


    Thanks for the update. I guess he’s waiting until the “pick up” happens…


    Interesting… though this one is being driven by Hungarian Money….


    Yes, it does. The implication being that “reboot” doesn’t know about my selection of SD boot and is assuming eMCC boot… ergo “someone needs to fix reboot”…


    Classical Left Revolutionary Tactics. Create an event, declare it a “crisis” and then react to the “crisis”… I really need to get my Color Revolutions posting up… they are based on that paradigm…


    I’m SURE it was entirely a “Lucky Shot”! Nobody who practices armed defense regularly could possibly be aiming for “the family jewels” as “That would be wrong.”… and subject to liability… so it was: “Entirely a lucky shot”, right?….

    Per EMP: There’s an interesting small device for creating local EMP. Charge thick wire coil with high amperage, then explosively disassemble it… Voltage rises toward infinity and an EMP happens, IIRC. I could easily see China testing such a device…

  7. Glenn999 says:

    Interesting article”

    Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum told Breitbart News in an exclusive interview on Monday that he is working with a broad coalition of Republicans in both the House and Senate, along with several governors, to develop a new effort to repeal Obamacare.

    The effort, which comes after serious tumult with prior legislation in both the House and the Senate, would devolve power over healthcare away from the federal government and back to the states. It would allow each of the 50 states to individually craft their own plans, and would mirror the effort led by Santorum in the mid-1990s which saw the only successful entitlement reform in the nation’s history.


  8. E.M.Smith says:


    How “healthcare” became a Federal Issue is an entire world to itself. 10th amendment anyone?

    So, yeah, if it isn’t EXPLICITLY enumerated as Federal, then it Is Not Federal! And I don’t see “healthcare” listed in the enumerated powers…

  9. Glenn999 says:

    Here it is in all its glory

  10. Larry Ledwick says:

    There are a couple different ways to do non-nuclear EMP. One as mentioned above by EM uses explosive compression of a coil shorting its windings which has a high current flowing in it. That creates a powerful pulse of energy as the magnetic field is suddenly compressed as the coil undergoes compression, but it also has an explosive signature (ie no one would be unaware the weapon went off).

    There are also EMP gun designs (which have been supposedly already been used by organized crime to disable security systems for large heists). These discharge a capacitor through a low inductance low resistance loop to create a powerful RF pulse.

    It is nothing complicated, large high voltage capacitor, a loop of copper tubing, and a fast acting high power switch to close the circuit. Effective range is relatively small but efforts to develop high power pulse emission microwave weapons is ongoing and it is not impossible that such a device might be getting tested by someone in such a manner.

    In a crowded harbor and on a wood sail boat such a device might be able to cause havoc to a ships sensors. Not to mention that Iran has been actively engaged in GPS spoofing efforts ( that is how they supposedly landed one of our drones in their back yard)

    Modern ships use GPS for navigation so it is conceivable that GPS spoofing was used to cause a ship to take a collision course while its systems thinks it is on course in a shipping lane.

    If such is the case it will never be publicly discussed in the US Navy investigation, but covered by some random explanation of electronic navigation equipment failure or some such.

  11. beththeserf says:


    Masks, like the spots and stripes of
    tigers or leopards lurking in undergrowth
    may be a cover up for sinister intent,
    for a Macbeth, say, who smiles and smiles,
    yet may, behind that smiling mask, be
    a damned villain waiting for nightfall
    to carry out an undercover
    nefarious (or murderous) event.

    Just as likely though, wearing a mask
    may be concealment for a shrinking self
    the donning of a protective covering
    like the turtle and the whelk, or as in classic
    drama, putting on the mask of an Achilles,
    now there’s a way for an un-heroic actor
    to become a hero, just for one day.

  12. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting article on the internal motivations of different players in the BLM movement.


  13. David A says:

    @Larry. Interesting perspective…
    ” They are saying that you must appreciate Heyer. That you must hold space for her. That she does more than some of y’all, as if this isn’t just again erasing the deaths all black women are withstanding at the hands of the state at every moment.”

    A strange movement. What death are they referring to?

    BLM appears to be a movement based on fantasy and blame. BLM activists, when asked to identify examples of systemic racism often fumble, then speak of police shootings where the statistics do not support them at all, or they talk about economic outcomes with the possibility of an internal black social culture as the possible main problem being completely removed.

  14. philjourdan says:

    Re: GPS monkeying/EMPs

    It is plausible that either or caused the accidents. But if so, then whoever did it just revealed their hands. Which is not smart. But then there has not been demonstrated a lot of intelligence in some circles.

    I doubt it was china. They are smart. The Mad Mullahs and Kim however……

  15. E.M.Smith says:


    It is known that Iran spoofed GPS to land a drone (well enough… no landing gear so the bottom got scarfed up…). It isn’t that hard really. Near as I can tell there’s no encrypted authenticate built in. (I’d not be surprised if the military is adding that along with the ‘location jitter code’ to new systems – it’s what I’d be doing…)

    So you just pop up a ‘satellite’ here on the ground and transmit signals about location and heading that direct things where you want them to go.

    Now the problem I see with steering a Navy ship is that you will also be steering any others nearby using GPS… BUT, if you wait until it is close to a BIG ship, that can’t change course or speed fast, you could cause a veering into it before folks on deck could holler enough to get you to stop it…

    I guess part of the question is just “How automated is steering?”. IF it is directly run by GPS, that’s a problem. However, if GPS is just one input and the guy at the helm is also “looking out the window”, then they just need some crew training to not use GPS in close quarters…

    It would be interesting to get a map of “ships inside a km” and see if one flag keeps showing up.

    There ought to also be anecdotal evidence for GPS spoofing from other ships nearby or from ships logs on the Navy. (Things like “computer shows straight forward line on GPS, but helm shows left turn…”)

    @David A:

    BLM is a Soros Sponsored group. It is directed and designed to foment racial strife for political purposes (and those purposes are NOT to make life better for black folks… they are to lay the groundwork for taking down Trump.) It popped up to split off the black vote to Hillary and the Dims, but didn’t get it done enough. Now it’s being re-purposed. First it was “Cops shooting blacks” but when many (most?) of those were shown to be “Blacks guy fighting with cops gets shot” that petered out. So now they’ve moved on to “Confederacy and Statues, yeah, this time for sure!”

    It is all part of the Color Revolution method. Create a strife to provoke excessive response, then use the excessive response to justify change of leadership and change of government. That’s why the Dimocrat Mayors are herding the two “sides” together. They know how Color Revolutions work and they are doing their part to create large demonstrations leading to violence.


    Now that was some nice shootin’ !

    Those canisters have a big arc trajectory, to get one ‘on target’ takes a lot of practice!

  16. David A says:

    Thanks and yes EM. Yet what in heck is “the deaths all black women are withstanding at the hands of the state at every moment.”?

  17. E.M.Smith says:

    I suspect it is intended to mean: “All the INNOCENT black men being gunned down by the Police FOR NO REASON AT ALL leaving their women to suffer alone”…

    Near as I can interpret “Oppression Obsession Ebonics”…

  18. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ref the collision of the USS John S. McCain, according to the wiki page, early reports mentioned that the ship lost steering control prior to the accident. They did not elaborate if that was due to a mechanical failure, or a system failure where the ship’s rudder was not answering the helm, and why they could not establish steering control from aft steering in time to avoid collision.


  19. Larry Ledwick says:

    In the political area slowly but surely the web of connections are getting untangled.

    Seems Ana Navarro who billed herself as a Republican strategists was actually a Democratic fund raiser.

    View at Medium.com

  20. Power Grab says:

    @ EM re:

    “so it was: “Entirely a lucky shot”, right?….”

    Oh…yeah…Bro…whatever you say. I’m SURE you got that right!


  21. Power Grab says:

    So how long do the effects of an EMP attack last in a situation like that?

    Is everything dead until they rebuild it, or what?

  22. Larry Ledwick says:

    The power surge can either “upset the system” meaning a reboot resolves the issue or will fry components in which case they need to switch over to back up systems or repair the damaged system. If it is some sort of jamming or spoofing, it just creates false readings which disappear when the jamming / spoofing attack is shut off.

  23. Steve H says:

    Those large ships can turn rapidly.

  24. E.M.Smith says:

    Well, it occured to me that the Orange Pi board was the first one I had where it would not display on my monitor and maybe, just maybe, it was for the same reason as the (later) Odroid C1 … So I disassembled, moved, and reassembled the whole web-scraper 8 TB data archive pile and plugged it into the TV in the bedroom… looooonnng ethernet cable trailing down the hallway to the office.

    It works.

    I’m typing this on Dillo (a relatively limted browser – since FireFox claims to not work and crash at the moment). Memory useage is all of 152 MB with xfce windows up, htop displaying status, and a terminal window open for good measure. Clearly the’ve compiled the OS for less memory usage…

    Well, at least now I know that the Orange Pi can also make a decent dirt cheap “Desktop” box… just as long as you drive a straight HDMI TV or monitor with it… So it does have a place out of the headless world.

    I could easily see it used as a low end computer by poor kids in Other Lands, for example. For about $35 including a cheap USB hub you could have a working system and internet access… That’s in the attainable range for a lot of the world. (Assuming they already have a TV somewhere to use as a monitor).

    Well, having scratched that curiousity itch, I’m now going to shut down, disassemble, move, and reassemble it back in the office ;-)

  25. E.M.Smith says:

    Oh, and for anyone still following the saga of the Odroids:

    I’ve decided to use the XU4 as the “Financial” browser. Occasional browser use only, one or two pages. Not much chance for the window drag lag to be an issue. It looks to be a configuration issue with compositing (perhaps complicated by the 2D vs 3D shift going on in video compositing driver land…)

    So it’s built, it’s working, and for sporadic browsing it ought to be fine. As that software matures it will likely move to my Daily Driver desktop. I “loaded it up” with 6 processes pegging 6 cores at 100%. Then used the browser. No slowdown at all. Having 2 fast cores wide open unloaded was plenty to run the OS and a browser… It is a bit of a strange feeling to launch a browser with lots of tabs in it, that usually bogs down the Pi M3 at launch, and have it just zip right up, all while watching 6 cores pegged to the wall.

    Tends to confirm my belief that FireFox can effectively use 2 cores only and anything beyond that isn’t helping it much. That, then, says you want FAST cores for a browser box, but don’t need that many of them, where things like distcc and distributed compiles benefit from a LOT of cores (of any speed, thought faster a bit better). Since a whole system compile can take a day, if any one program compile takes 10 minutes on a fast core or 30 minutes on a slow one, having a bunch of slow ones can complete a bunch of those tasks, and still be ahead of the fast one doing one after the other AND still be done way before the “end of the day” overall finish time.

    What works best for Climate Models, TBD…

    So, summary status:

    I’ve got my “Dirty Driver” built and dedicated to being “at risk”, but also firewalled off from the rest of the office network. I’ve got a Financial Services Only system (with some ‘internal only’ playing allowed as that’s not risking external exposure) on my interior network. I’ve got the Headend chip in the PiM2 mostly separated out into the dedicated use cases, so it can now be “cleaned up” and go back to it’s primary job of running the distcc Stack for compiles and working on climate model configurations. Oh, and the Orange Pi disk farm / scraper is done too. DNS and filtering has been done for years.

    Pretty much the whole desktop / services paradigm done. Still have the misc. “future projects” list to work on, but I think I’m done with my infrastructure overhaul…

    In Other News:

    Anyone who missed it, this is a gem from The Left:


    Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill Says ‘Normal People’ Can Afford Private Planes
    She and her husband owned a $2 million turbo-prop

    ByEmily Zanotti
    August 22, 2017

    Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill might have sold her $2 million private plane, but she’s still trying to convince voters that it was no big deal that she used to jet back and forth from D.C. on her very own twin-engine turbo-prop. “Normal people” do it all the time.

    McCaskill, who is up for re-election in 2018, has been trying to connect with the “little people” in her state, hosting a series of town halls where she insists she’s just a blue collar Missouri girl at heart, trying to represent the needs of her constituents in Congress.

    Over the weekend, though, McCaskill, unsolicited, asked a constituent concerned about the rising cost of air travel, “will you remind of that when they come after me about my husband’s private plane? That normal people can afford it.”

    If you’re looking to save on air travel, there are much easier ways than owning a private plane, which costs more than just the sticker price, when you factor in storage, maintenance, fuel, and associated fees. But, it seems, according to McCaskill, the high cost of serving Missourians in Washington and at home absolutely required her to purchase an eight passenger Pilatus PC-12/45.

    Oh yeah, normal people often plonk down $2,000,000.00 for a little private vehicle to just get around in… /sarc;


    Sen. Claire McCaskill thinks that owning a private jet is “normal.” So put your tray tables up, because her comment to that effect could cause significant turbulence for the Missouri Democrat’s re-election campaign.

    When a constituent noted that affordable air travel and the American dream are intertwined, McCaskill replied “will you remind that when they come after me about my husband’s private plane? That normal people can afford it.”

    But most of Missouri can’t jet set like the senator. The average household earns about $50,000 per year. Accustomed to the finer things, McCaskill used to fly home on the weekends on an eight passenger Pilatus PC-12/45, a turboprop plane retailing around $2 million.

    And as the well-heeled McCaskill busies herself with rebranding as a hard-nosed watchdog, her recent private jet comment ensures she’ll catch populist flack.

    Republicans won’t let voters forget that the senator was

  26. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting thought here, does this gap in hurrican strength winds mean the gulf is too cool to support hurricane force winds in deep water? Looks like unless water is over 30 C over a wide area there is not enough energy to sustain a hurricane.

    Seems there is a cold water pool on the north of the Yucatan peninsula I have never noticed if that is normal or not.

  27. Larry Ledwick says:

    Okay who spiked the party punch with stupid?

    These clueless fools could not do 2 minutes of research to find out that in the fall bears always gorge on the ripe berries to fatten up for the winter.


  28. Another Ian says:

    From an email

    “You find GOLD in the strangest places. Normally the comments section of ZH is a litany of poor language, spelling and generally objectionable material. Today there was an article on what the Civil War in America will/does look like. For some reason I followed the comments section down and there was this little gem from some unknown bloke by the name of Joshua.

    It doesn’t only apply to America!!!!!

    .) Joshua…

    There is nothing left to hold civil society together. No shared values. No shared history. No shared worldview. In many places, not even a shared language. What we see now is the Balkanization of America. In essence, we as a people have already seceded from each other. “

  29. Larry Ledwick says:

    If you want a well functioning immune system east dirt when you are young.


  30. beththeserf says:

    Another Ian, no shared history, agree. Same old attacks on western
    democracy by centralists, say who are the fascists? (Ref: ‘Varieties of
    Fascism.’ Eugen Weber, doctrines of revolution in the 20th Century.
    Lots of primary evidence readings.)

    Those wanna be Plato-ists, they don’t know, or wish to know, how to
    manage an economy to facilitate innovation and allow the citizens to
    thrive. Attacks on efficient energy is their dastardly plan to destroy
    the Industrial Revolution.

    They don’t value individuals, in fact they want a sheeple, obedient population
    – a remake of the populace through transformational value ‘education’
    programs. See Invisible serf’s collar research on pervasive ‘mind arson’ in
    K-12 education.

    Victim politics isn’t about encouraging respect for individual differences, it’s
    a divide and conquer civil war by the Gramsci-ites. They don’t want citizens
    to feel pride in any aspect of a nation’s culture or its history. Only history
    taught must be ‘black arm band’ To erase any pride in western achievements,
    noble lies are okay, do what’s necessary, – this is a revolution by stealth,
    ultimately just as clean-slate as the full-blown violent take-over with gulags.

  31. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well now finally the clock can start on Federal response Hurricane Harvey.

    Folks on the left have been ranting about President Trump not doing any thing regarding the hurricane when the Governor had not fulfilled his responsibilities required for a Federal Disaster Declaration. Once that declaration is finally issued then the Feds can exercise their emergency authorities and take actions to support local governments affected by Hurricane Harvey.

    From twitter at 19:50 mountain time
    Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 3 minutes ago

    At the request of the Governor of Texas, I have signed the Disaster Proclamation, which unleashes the full force of government help!

  32. E.M.Smith says:


    Yeah, I was looking at that earlier. I’ve cancelled a drive back to Florida over that hurricane being in the way…

    The globsl heat flow is visible in mass flow and that shows up in spirals. Hurricanes and lows spinning upward one way, dry cold air sinking and spinning the other way in highs (eventually pressure heating toward the ground). The models don’t allow for such small scale phenomenon, yet they are key…


    Interesting catch on the cold pool….

    Didn’t Yogi bear stuff himself on berries? Or was that BooBoo?

    Bears eat whatever is in season. Meat when they can get it. Any ripe fruit as it ripens.

    Remind me to thank my sister for making mud pies and suggesting I eat them…

  33. Power Grab says:

    @ Larry Ledwick – re pool of cool water:

    I was just looking at this animation:


    and noticed that area was color-coded for low Ongoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) levels yesterday right about where Harvey was then.

    I hope you can see the animation that includes, say, Aug. 20-24.

    I seem to see a correlation between low OLR and cooler temperatures, and vice versa.

    I’m looking forward to seeing what the image for Aug. 25 looks like!

    Another thing (and this will probably sound totally cuckoo), it also seems to be that the ambient EMF level is richer when the OLR is high in an area. Here’s the really cuckoo part: until recently, the mouse on my older computer at the office had a tendency to treat a single click like a double click whenever the OLR was higher in my location. If the OLR was low, the mouse would work normally. I continued to use it for a long time after first noticing that pattern, just to see if the pattern held more often than not. It did. But I finally prevailed upon the deskside support dude to bring me a newer mouse, since double-click behavior when you don’t want it can be quite annoying.

  34. Power Grab says:

    Re eating dirt:

    There is a book called “Patient, Heal Thyself”. The writer tells the story of how he ended up essentially a 98 pound stick figure and was diagnosed with celiac. His family spent gazillions of dollars trying to heal him, trying everything. The breakthrough finally came when someone offered him a baggy of what looked like dirt. It was SBOs (Soil-Based Organisms), and it did the trick.

    Fast forward to today – researchers are doing lots of research into which commensal microorganisms are good for which health issues. Finally!

    I have to add that I was able to head off what I thought might be either a wheat allergy or gluten intolerance (or something like that) by doing two things: (1) avoiding choraminated tap water and other sources of unnecessary antibiotics, and (2) incorporating probiotics, prebiotics, and probiotic foods into my diet.

    I think I have already shared the story here. Unless someone asks, I won’t repeat it. But it was an interesting little journey, figuring out what the real problem was and getting to where it doesn’t bother me to eat wheat now.

  35. Power Grab says:

    @ Beththeserf – re “no shared history” – Nailed it!

    I was just noticing today how TPTB seem to want to reduce the population of this great country to simple players of a “Simon Says” type of game. They don’t want people to be able to initiate action based on things they have in their “memory banks”. They don’t want anyone to remember anything great their ancestors or others in their people group have done. They want everyone to be glued to their screens, awaiting the latest signal from Big Brother as to what they are to think about an event or concept, and be ready to switch gears and go be part of a destructive flash mob as soon as the signal changes…again. Don’t think! Just jump! You can ask “How high?” on the way up.

    But it puzzles me that, if they make it so energy costs too much for regular people to afford to keep their screens powered up and functioning (and their surveillance working, BTW), how are they going to keep everyone on their leash and playing their stupid game? Have they just not thought that far out?

    In the meantime, I like to get real, hard copy books and newspapers and magazines. I like to get real CDs and LPs. I like to get real DVDs or even VHS tapes. I am starting to learn how to use an SLR camera that uses film!!! I like to play real musical instruments and attend real concerts and shows where real humans play real instruments and sing with their natural voices! In person!! (How novel!)

    I think we persons of a “certain age” should make a special effort to learn to do something new with our own hands. Don’t let them fool you into thinking the only path to fulfillment lies in buying the latest voice-activated toys.

    One one hand, they complain about how many of us are overweight and obese these days. Yet on the other hand, they want us glued to our seats and our eyes glued to screens all day, and to simply call out to the latest voice-activated shopping-bot to send whatever they’ve seduced us into thinking we should have.

    Get real!

    Or, should I say, “Get back to being real!”

  36. beththeserf says:

    Re ‘forget the past,’ PG, the long history of human successes and errors,
    trial and error, Nature’s way. I like this observation from Nassim Taleb.

    “If there is something in nature you don’t understand, odds are it makes
    sense in a deeper way that is beyond your understanding. So there is a
    logic to natural things that is much superior to our own. Just as there is
    a dichotomy in law: ‘innocent until proven guilty’ as opposed to ‘guilty
    until proven innocent’, let me express my rule as follows: what Mother
    Nature does is rigorous until proven otherwise; what humans and
    science do is flawed until proven otherwise.”
    ― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder.

  37. Larry Ledwick says:

    An article that talks about ship collisions between commercial shipping and the new generation of low observable war ships.

  38. Larry Ledwick says:

    Another example of how powerful big data is.

    View at Medium.com

  39. jim2 says:

    From the article:

    The Joe Arpaio Legal Fund was established in late 2010 to combat the numerous and frivolous lawsuits that have been filed against Sheriff Joe Arpaio because of his tough-on-crime policies and being so outspoken against illegal immigration.


  40. cdquarles says:

    @ Larry, the threshold water temperature to sustain a tropical system is 25C/77F, not 30. Remember that tropical systems churn the water under them, so it is the ‘subsurface’ water temps that matter, until the threshold is met. After that, it is atmospheric conditions that matter to sustain them. High pressure aloft and little to no wind shear are required once the system of thunderstorms get going.

  41. Larry Ledwick says:

    Indian researchers placed the critical temperature for monsoon development at 85 deg F (29.5 C)

    But since storms are heat engines, I suspect the more important number is the Delta T between the prevailing air temp and the sea surface temp (plus the instability due to humidity levels at altitude) as such it is likely a continuum depending on local conditions and no one temp is critical in all conditions.

  42. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well at least the Never Trump folks are openly talking about subverting the President, I guess that is a positive step, now even the clueless might catch on.


  43. Glenn999 says:

    Okay, so was it Cat 4, Cat 3, or Cat 2?
    The reason I ask is based on some discussion on WUWT. Compared to storms in previous decades, how does this storm compare? Has anyone seen pictures of extreme Cat 4 wind destruction? Just asking….If this is based on science, what is the evidence for the determination?
    Thanks to anyone who happens to be paying attention better than myself.

  44. Glenn999 says:

    also, interesting website:

  45. Larry Ledwick says:

    CAT 4 etc is a measure or sustained wind speed, but to answer your question you need to know where and when the measurements were taken. It can be Cat 4 just off shore, Cat 3 just in land from shore and Cat 2 a few tens of miles down the coast. It will be several days before we see the worst of the damage (not counting tornado damage.

    A girl I went to school with, now lives in south west Houston, She is at 59 ft elevation, they are forecasting the Brazos river to crest over its historical high crest of 54.7 ft. at about 59 ft.
    She might have water in the ground floor by the time it crests.

    It is currently rising 1′ 9″ per hour at the Richmond flood gauge which puts the probable crest near early morning hours of Tuesday.


    This just was released by NWS Houston on twitter:

    They are in for a long few days.

  46. Larry Ledwick says:

    From twitter:

  47. Larry Ledwick says:

    Storm summary so far – some wind and rain reports


    DAYTON 0.2 E 27.45
    SANTA FE 0.7 S 27.42
    FIRST COLONY 4 WSW 24.83
    SOUTH HOUSTON 4.0 SSW 24.54
    LA MARQUE 1.8 E 24.53
    LEAGUE CITY 2 W 22.08
    BACLIFF 21.62
    PEARLAND 3 NNE 20.84
    LA GRANGE 10.2 NW 18.89
    SMITHVILLE 9 E 18.89
    SMITHVILLE 18.50
    SUGAR LAND 1.0 W 17.97
    MAGNOLIA 2.8 S 17.80
    PASADENA 2 NW 17.72
    WALLER 3.0 WSW 17.57
    CLEVELAND 3.6 S 16.43
    NEW ULM 5.1 S 16.14
    PECAN GROVE 1 NNW 15.80
    ALVIN 3 SW 15.16
    AUSTWELL 6 SSE 15.10
    VICTORIA 2 SW 9.37


    LAMAR 2 SSW 110
    ROCKPORT 1 S 108
    TAFT 5 NNE 90
    EDNA 73
    BRAZOS 451 70

  48. Larry Ledwick says:

    10:00 pm CDT forecast discussion for Harvey


  49. David A says:

    @Glenn, the primary requirement for a categorizing hurricanes is ground based 10 meter tower wind gauge readings.

    As such I am having difficulty with the Cat 4 landfall definition for Harvey. Compared to Carla, Harvey was not much. ( excepting of course its stall and loop back creating catastrophic rain flood in the swamp city of Houston)

    The top ground based wind gusts for Carla were about 45 mph above Harvey’s top gusts. Also Carla was a much larger storm.
    Via ground based air speed records Harvey was a 2 or very weak 3.

    Tropical Storms have dumped as much as 42 inches on parts of Texas within 24 hours, so this is not unprecedented for Texas. Besides, there have been exactly zero CAGW predictions of CO2 causing hurricanes to stall.

    It appears logical that we are more likely to catch top wind in events now then in the past. Why; well more flights, radar readings and information on when and where to fly, more ground based readings.

  50. David A says:

    @Larry, here are your top 3 gust readings for Harvey…
    LAMAR 2 SSW 110

    For Carla…
    the highest wind gust observations include 175 mph (282 km/h) in Port Lavaca, 160 mph (260 km/h) in Matagorda, and 150 mph (240 km/h) in Aransas Pass, Austwell, Edna, Port Aransas, and Victoria.

  51. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yes Carla was a much more serious storm – it also had very significant storm surge flooding, so a totally different category of storm. The two are not really comparable.

    Harvey will be a very expensive storm but that has more to do with the population of Houston and the massive area subject to significant flooding than to wind damage.

  52. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well flood watch for my friend continues, Harvey has slid back out to sea a little, the storm center is now off shore a bit but expected to slide back east then north east later in the day. The storm is continuing to pump moisture into the gulf coast area.

    The Brazos Richmond flood gauge is at 44.22 ft now which is 10 ft below historical peak crest, and rains will continue into tomorrow at least.


    From Twitter:
    Just the rain that has already fallen across the Houston area and Southeast Texas tallies to 9 trillion gallons.


    Wash post still managed to put a small climate change gig in the story.

  53. M Simon says:

    Back in the day (mid-60s) all US military ships were well protected against EMP. It has only gotten better.

    Local navigation systems.
    1. GPS
    2. Radar
    3. Sonar (not normally used)
    4. Fore and aft and port and starboard watches

    The odds of all those being disabled at once is remote. There are backup generators. Possibly batteries. It is a command problem.

  54. M Simon says:

    jim2 says: 27 August 2017

    Joe Arpaio is a good friend to the Drug Cartels. They depend on enforcement to keep prices up.

    If the trade is ever legalized, it will cease to be profitable from that time. The more difficulties that attend it, the better for you and us.” — Directors of Jardine-Matheson


  55. jim2 says:

    M Simon. Arpaio is NOT a friend of the drug cartels. He merely enforces the law of the land. Don’t lie!

  56. cdquarles says:

    Yes, Jim2, it is the (known or expected) effect of prohibition laws to create organized crime. Call commerce a crime, well, then you will have only criminals engaged in it. Drugs, in themselves, are not evil. What people do with them *may* be evil. If our laws only dealt with public intoxication, we’d not have the situation we have now. Recall, that prior to the Harrison Narcotic Acts of the early 20th century and its progeny, all of these things were legal and dealt with by drunk and disorderly statutes.

  57. Larry Ledwick says:

    We have a quiet digital war going on between Google and conservatives. Recently Google (youtube) has demonetized many of the most popular and widely subscribed voices of the pro Trump and anti ANTFA alternate media. They made the mistake of irritating 4Chan.

    From twitter:
    John Robb‏ @johnrobb

    Google cracks down on free speech. 4Chan disrupts their advertising w/bots.


  58. jim2 says:

    cdquarles – I am for legalization of all drugs. So, no problem with that, but Arpaio doesn’t decide what the drug laws are. The “drug war” just gives the government one more excuse to spy on us.

  59. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting item from twitter:

    Proof there are undercover cops watching the ANTIFA riots.

    Anyone familiar enough with Calif LEO badges to identify the agency here?
    On online says he thinks it is a Federal badge.

  60. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting little item from twitter:

    John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee 10 minutes ago

    John Schindler Retweeted Matt Bramanti
    Jawohl: Antifaschistischer Schutzwall

    John Schindler added,
    Matt Bramanti @mattbramanti
    The official name of the Berlin Wall was the Anti-Fascist Protection Rampart. https://twitter.com/kinsellawarren/status/901811595835305988

    John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee 7 minutes ago

    It’s worth noting that for decades Communists called groups they liked “Anti-Fascist” — including lots of thugs, murderers & genocidaires.

  61. E.M.Smith says:

    Gorka out?

    The swamp is an incredible vacuum for souls….

  62. philjourdan says:

    @Larry – Re:

    It’s worth noting that for decades Communists called groups they liked “Anti-Fascist” — including lots of thugs, murderers & genocidaires.

    That is simply due to the animosity between Hitler and Stalin. Kind of like someone here calling anyone on the left a “communist”. Just a label of convenience.

    No, the Antifa of America is not the “Communists” of the 20th century. They really are fascists. They want a strong central government, who controls all aspects of your life, and who allocates resources from corporations. So they have not gone full fledged Stalin Socialists yet, stopping short at the Mussolini fascism stage.

  63. Larry Ledwick says:

    Antifa is simply a communist front group, an organization intended to cause massive social chaos by any means necessary to cripple western democratic governments by over loading their system with disruptive inputs. Fascism and Communism are two sides of the same exact coin. They are both socialists. Hitler and Stalin both thought they were engineering the “proper” implementation of socialism. Fascism was built on nationalism and communism was built on the “State” an important distinction for the then USSR because it was a confederation of multiple nations, so nationalism would have fractured the union if it was the focus. Also differences in how each treated private property and companies. The Soviets nationalized them as arms of the state, where fascism (both Italy and Germany) left them nominally in private hands but they were just sock puppets for the government.

    One symbol commonly seen on antifa flags is of a circle containing three arrows.

    This symbol is known as the anti-fascist circle. It has its roots in German anti-fascist movements of the 1930s. The symbol was designed by Sergei Tschachotin for the German anti-fascist paramilitary organization known as the Iron Front. Antifa itself traces its roots all the way back to Trotsky. Antifa was founded by Trotsky as the international combat arm of the Communist party, the American strain of Antifa is just a little less developed than the European strain but they come from the same roots and have the same end game. They are the modern 21’st century brown shirts.

    But there are factions within the ANTIFA groups and you can see them by the multiple different variations of flags used by the groups.

    The basic anarchist flag is the Red and Black with diagonal triangles Black being the color for anarchists, and red the color for communist symbolism.

    Some of them are pure anarchists, others are anarcho communists and others are enviro/climate-anarchists etc. but they are working in a loose confederation to achieve similar ends. They all want to tear down civil goverment. That is why they fly banners that say “Become ungovernable” they are trying to break the system and hope to be the winner that picks up the pieces.
    Then you have a lot of camp followers, wanna-bes, and useful idiots who think by affiliating with them they are “doing something important”. They have no clue that they are being used, as cannon fodder and mindless puppets.

    Some groups invert the colors

  64. philjourdan says:

    “Let This Be Your Last Battlefield”

  65. Larry Ledwick says:

    Let me guess – someone tipped off Nancy Pelosi that Antifa is about to get busted on Federal charges and several of them are about to get indicted or the group is about to be named a terrorist organization.

    View at Medium.com

  66. Larry Ledwick says:

    Now Antifa finds out they are expendable useful idiots.


  67. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like things may have turned a corner, regarding use of Back Bloc tactics. The left figured out that Trump and his supporters were not going to fold to that sort of intimidation and were going to hang it around Democratic necks during the coming election cycle and make them own it.


  68. jim2 says:

    Hmmmm ….

    Researchers from Positive Technologies — a provider of enterprise security solutions — have found a way to disable the Intel Management Engine (ME), a much-hated component of Intel CPUs that many have called a secret backdoor, even if Intel advertised it as a “remote PC management” solution. People have been trying for years to find a way to disable the Intel ME component, but have failed all this time. This is because disabling Intel ME crashes computers, as Intel ME is responsible for the initialization, power management, and launch of the main Intel processor.


  69. Larry Ledwick says:

    On a totally different topic, a very interesting article on the complexities of modern smart bombing execution. (it ain’t as simple as people think).


  70. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ooops hate it when you fire somebody and fail to shut down all their access permissions.


  71. philjourdan says:

    @Larry – re: Smart bombs

    You got to love an author with a sense of humor:

    As a side note, these fighter pilots also walked to the jets barefoot — uphill, both ways.

  72. David A says:

    I read the article Larry.

    I disagree with the rainfall rates per hour being extreme for either hurricanes or tropical storms.

    The hourly rate quoted is fairly typical for strong tropical systems. The reason Harvey rained so much in one geographical area is nailed in two words. ” Harvey Hovered”

  73. llanfar says:

    Completely correct David. I’ve been through quite a few of these storms (including the eye of typhoon Nina in 1975 in Taiwan – amazing to see!) Huge water-makers.

  74. Larry Ledwick says:

    Just because it is funny.

  75. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting way to do network security. System scans a customers network and indexes all devices on the network to sniff out unauthorized / unknown equipment on the system.


  76. Another Ian says:

    On fats in diets


    Something about “the fatalities of consensuses”?

  77. Larry Ledwick says:

    Opinion peace on Antifa and the recent change of heart for ranking Democrats to denounce them and throw them under the bus after tolerating and even encouraging them for the last few years.


  78. Another Ian says:

    Deeper by the look of it!

    “James Comey Drafted Conclusion in Clinton Probe Prior to FBI Interviewing Key Witnesses…”


  79. beththeserf says:

    Another Ian, seems it’s a Democrat kinda’
    cli-sci thingy. Conclusions prior to obs, and
    tests provisional to prior conclusions. –
    Like the IPCC Brief.

  80. gallopingcamel says:

    @Another Ian
    “James Comey Drafted Conclusion in Clinton Probe Prior to FBI Interviewing Key Witnesses…”

    The FBI is corrupt and like a fish the rot starts with the head. If the last election has not convinced our rulers that the American people are really p**sed about the way they have corrupted our institutions to protect themselves while getting rich, what will it take?

    If Donald Trump is prevented from “Draining the Swamp”, the anger will escalate. What will follow? Civil war? Secession?

  81. Larry Ledwick says:

    Meanwhile some in Federal law enforcement have been watching Antifa and giving warnings to locals for a considerable period of time. It looks like the Feds might be in the phase of “give them rope” just waiting for the right provocation to begin a crackdown.

    With the crowd sourcing efforts of /pol/ systematically identifying members they group might be in bigger trouble than it knows.


  82. Larry Ledwick says:

    Is it my imagination or have most of the pernicious leaks been stopped in the Trump administration?

    I don’t recall much in the way of rampant leaking of sensitive / classified info lately like in the first few months of the administration.

  83. jim2 says:

    LL – there aren’t as many leaks, but Trump seems to be surrounded by RINOs and pro-immigration idiots. I’m disheartened.

  84. Jeff says:

    Over at the Conservative Treehouse the discussion has been about the leaks slowing when Priebus was let go, but not stopping. When Bannon left (along with Gorka), they seem to have stopped entirely. Troubling, because it seems that Bannon was a staunch supporter of President Trump. Dig a little deeper, though, and you see that Bannon was all in for Cruz just before that. Here are some related articles about Bannon, Gorka, and “leakage”. The comments are interesting, but colored by the fact that CTH has been invaded by trolls.

    Missing Since Bannon Left The White House…

    Dr. Sebastian Gorka Departs White House…

    Steve Bannon Out At White House…

    Speaking of trolls, bots, and media manipulation (we have a general election this month here in Germany), there’s a reat article in c’t (in German) about bots and trolling, but they fail to mention Google’s contribution to that thanks to Eric Schmidt’s work for the DNC and HildeBEAST, likely because they lean far left. For technical stuff (e.g. CPU design, etc.) they’re great. Politics, not so much.

    Julian Assange wrote an article about Google and their larger, erm, agenda that is really eye-opening, especially considering it was written in 2014 incorporating an interview from 2011. One can only wonder how much more Google has scooped up and how much deeper its tendrils have pierced the very fabric of society and our lives.

    Google Is Not What It Seems

  85. cdquarles says:

    @llanfar, better to say that tropical systems are major water movers, from the ocean into the atmosphere and back to the ocean and/or land. Oh, green plants are pretty good water movers, too.

  86. cdquarles says:

    @ Another Ian, remember that medicine is subject to fads. I recall, years ago, the general recommendation of 45 to 55% of calories from carbohydrates (primarily complex ones from vegetables and a lesser amount from fruits), 30% from protein and 15 to 25% from fat (half unsaturated and half saturated). The variation was designed to allow personal choice in what food to eat where a person had issues with specific foods. The only bad diet is the one that makes *you* sick.

  87. cdquarles says:

    I am beginning to wonder about Google. I’ve used them for years and since I know how the internet works, I know that what I publish there has no expectation of privacy (I’m broadcasting, in a fashion, in public). The more radical left political leanings bother me.

    That said, don’t break them up. No, it would be better to create and promote alternatives. Let people vote with their wallets.

  88. cdquarles says:

    @EM, yes, President Trump pardoned Sheriff Joe (rightly, in my opinion; because of the underlying issues that led to his trial, which wasn’t by jury, if I am remembering correctly) last week.

  89. cdquarles says:

    [Personal note: I am getting used to a new pair of spectacles, so I may have typo troubles.]

  90. Glenn999 says:

    There seems to be a big push by googles, fakebook and youtube to censor certain speech. Perhaps the internet is not freeway of ideas afterall. I’m sure there are no aspiring entrepreneurs out there who will take advantage of this. Perhaps the swamp is so big that we are all living in it. (see kevin shipp youtube video at https://youtu.be/XHbrOg092GA )

  91. E.M.Smith says:

    Google is not the internet. Folks can just flow arround them and move on.

    I mostly use Duckduckgo or Yahoo. I want to set up a yacy node when I get the chance. P2P Internet search, no central authority and no censorship.

    I don’t do facebook, I post here. I’m the only censor here.

  92. gallopingcamel says:

    “Google is not the internet.”

    What to do about Google has been bugging me for a while. Then I came across a wonderful rant by Pointman:

    The Startpage search engine will take a bit of getting used to but it got rid of those annoying ads that are so hard to get rid of in Google.

  93. Larry Ledwick says:

    Using start page indirectly uses google as they include google results in their listings. Google is still getting traffic from you, which can be analyzed even if they don’t know specifically who you are. Your search queries will still contribute to their search volume and analysis of what people are searching for and other anonymous search analytics .

    If you want to totally avoid google, you can use ixquick/eu


    I won’t use StartPage because it returns Google results. Is there an alternative?
    Last modified on 05 February 2017 09:37 PM

    As you know, StartPage returns Google results in complete privacy and never shares your information with Google.

    However, if you prefer to search without receiving Google results, please check out our sister search engine, Ixquick.eu.

    Ixquick.eu is also a 100% private search engine, just like StartPage, but instead of providing Google results, Ixquick.eu is a “meta-search” engine that submits your query privately to multiple search engines. Ixquick.eu never queries Google and never returns Google search results.

    To learn which search engines Ixquick.eu uses, please click here.

  94. Larry Ledwick says:

    Another item on google and anonymous search engines. (or resistance is futile)


    Why do I get different results with StartPage than Google?
    Last modified on 24 January 2017 07:22 AM

    One of two things may be happening to cause you to receive different StartPage results than what you would receive from Google.

    The first may involve Google’s tailored search feature. Google keeps a record of all of your interests, based on things you write about in your Gmail account, things you search for on their search engine, and other Google services you use. They use this information to pre-select what search results they believe you are actually looking for. The result is that you do not receive “pure” search results, but results that have been tailored, censored, and personalized for you specifically. You can find more about this so called “filter bubble” in this Support Center article.

    StartPage does not do that. StartPage acts as an intermediary between you and Google, so your searches are completely private. StartPage submits your query to Google anonymously, then returns Google results to you privately. Google never sees you and does not know who made the request; they only see StartPage. Since Google can’t determine your interests based on your past search history, you receive standard search results, rather than Google’s “personalized” results. This is one of the reasons why StartPage results are differerent from Google results.

    The other possibility is that Google may occasionally provide different results to StartPage than to its direct users. Because we act as an intermediary between you and Google, we are dependent on the results Google sends to us. We do not modify these results in any way, but deliver them to you exactly as Google delivers them to us. We have noted that occasionally Google provides different results to StartPage than they offer to the general public, for reasons that are not entirely clear.

  95. Glenn999 says:

    Here are a couple of headlines:

    “Conservative And Independent YouTube Channels Hit By Censorship And Demonetization”

    “YouTube Banned Me, but Not the Hate Imams

    “The New Censorship:
    How did Google become the internet’s censor and master manipulator, blocking access to millions of websites?”

    “How Google Censors The New American (and Other Conservatives) ”

  96. beththeserf says:

    Yes Glen 999,
    Some cultures are more equal than others.

    The Bamyar Buddgas – ideologues’ contempt for other cultures.
    In Oz, the Alinskyites are going after
    * Captain Cook’s Statue,,
    * Father’s Day,
    * Separation of Church and State. – Oh Antigone!

  97. Larry Ledwick says:

    From twitter graphic on how the “Raise act” is intended to work for a points based immigration selection process.

  98. Larry Ledwick says:

    Under the category of how to get divorced from google, I just discovered an open source world map project. You can zoom in or out to any area of the globe in some respects it is superior to google maps. It allows you do down load extracts (I have not figured out how to do that yet or messed with any of the required tools), but this would allow you to keep a local copy of the map data base in case internet access was cut off.


  99. Another Ian says:


    It has got the street map for our one-pub town in inland Australia pretty right even th the one block of double lane street but doesn’t have anything ranchish around as yet

  100. E.M.Smith says:


    Has the majority os streests of a “gated community inside a gated community” where I sometimes visit in Florida. Missing a name on a 4 house spur / culdesac, but has the line…

    Thanks! I’m bothered every time I use a Google map….


    News had a Richter 6.5 where N.Korea tested a nuke and claimed a fusion bomb.. Looks to me like military intervention is likely…

    This is not a hypothetical to me. My house is near the Pacific coast and about the ideal place to hit as it would take out silicon vslley.

  101. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yes early reports on NK device is probable yield near 100 kt which signifies two things. One that would definitely be well into the boosted fission or thermonuclear family of weapon designs. That means they have all the essentials for nuclear weapon design figured out.

    Once you get into that class of device, there for all practical purposes is no upper limit to yield. It is only a matter of how much throw weight your delivery system can place on target.

    Second that is in the same class of the most common sized warhead used in modern ICBM missiles as it is pretty much the optimum size for producing usable weapons effects over a city sized area without wasting a lot of effort pushing around the atmosphere a few thousand feet above the target.

    They are also openly talking about EMP usage, which means if their orbital systems can boost that device into orbit, they can put any major industrial country at risk any time they want to, and there is not much of anything we can do about it if we cannot prove they have put a weapon in orbit.

    This completely changes the game (assuming they designed and built the device as they assert) the only remaining question is, do they have the capability to make a second one or more in any reasonable time frame?

  102. Larry Ledwick says:

    Two interesting articles on North Korean missile technology. Their heaviest satellite to date has an estimated weight (mass) of 200 Kg (440 pounds) which is within the practical mass range for a small nuclear device up to 100 kt yield.

    The US Davy Crockett warhead weighed about 51 pounds and had a yield of only 10 and 20 tons of TNT.

    The W48 warhead sized to fit the 155mm gun weighed 118 and 128 pounds (two models). and had an explosive yield equivalent to 72 tons of TNT.

    The M65 atomic cannon 280mm bore W9 warhead, was 11-inches wide, 55 long and weighed 803-pounds and had a yield of 15 kt (about the same as the previous test shot by North Korea prior to the latest 100 KT shot made this week). This design was essentially a scaled down gun type device similar to the little boy device used in Hiroshima Japan, thus not being very weight efficient.

    The comparable US warhead to the latest North Korean shot is the W76 100 kt warhead used by the U.S. Trident I and Trident II SLBMs which weighed about 362 pounds for the “Physics package” (the actual device itself not including other hardware required in the warhead).

    That means that North Korea has already demonstrated the ability to get a W76 class warhead into orbit (assuming their 100 kt device is approximately as weight efficient as the W76).



  103. Larry Ledwick says:

    The military balance in Korea is summarized here in this image from twitter.

  104. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    Yeah, that’s an interesting graph. IMHO it is showing the exponential part of the growth curve S of public awareness the are being tracked and spied upon.


    The problem with ruthless dictators getting nukes is that they WILL use them in the most damaging ways possible. They have no moral compass being driven only by personal gain.

    This tells me Kim will go for EMP over the mainland and will be providing the tech to Iran as well. The necessary conclusion is that in a few years the USA goes dark after an EMP (probably three spaced over the continent). Then we find out how resilient our systems really are…

    Kim doesn’t care about squashing one coastal city so much as he would be fixated on making D.C. and the continent go dark…

    The necessary conclusion from that is we need to apply the S.A.A.D. doctrine as soon as possible.

    Swift. Assured. Asymmetrical. Destruction. or…. squash ’em like a bug….

  105. Larry Ledwick says:

    The clinker in the coal bin here with S.A.A.D. is China. Just yesterday they explicitly said they “would not allow war” in the Korean Peninsula if we struck first.


    This implies a couple of possibilities.

    1. China thinks they can hold NK short of actually using their nukes
    2. It is all a scam China is actually using NK to do some underground testing while flagging it as NK efforts.
    3. China (as they have stated in the past) think war with the US is inevitable, and harbor great hatred for Japan and intend when the time is right (when they decide to move on Taiwan) to unleash NK and start a war which will give pretext to take out Japan and assert their unconditional authority in the western Pacific region.
    4. Need North Korea as an agent of chaos to help keep their people in line and sell the notion that the US and Japan are a threat to mainland China.

    They (China) are a couple years away from finishing their upgrade of their missile services and rolling out new MIRVed warheads. They are also in the middle of a significant shipping build surge for their navy and have not fully tested and made operational their hypersonic anti-ship missile.

    When those three steps are finished they will be in position to play their ace in the hole, as they will have a window of superiority at sea and significant stand off ability which we cannot match in the short term. They have stolen a march on us in this mobilization upgrade chess game and are about 2 moves ahead of us en-route to a checkmate situation.



    We won’t have an effective answer to their systems for a couple years, right now their systems can significantly out range ours.

    We could have done something during the Clinton administration and perhaps up to the start of the Obama administration but I think that door has closed and we squandered the opportunity to remove the NK threat when we had the clout to make it stick. China has been actively upgrading its offensive and territorial defense systems for several years, shifting their enormous industrial capacity into military hardware (shipping and missiles) they are now in approximately the same position the US was at the onset of WWII with totally dominant industrial capacity to out build their opponents. Thanks to the slow motion de-industrialization of the US it would take us several years to build the basic factory infrastructure to compete with them in a “battle of the bands” between our two industrial economies.

  106. cdquarles says:

    @ Larry,

    I agree, yet what we, Joe Public, have to go on, unfortunately, are unreliable media reports. Given that I have a son in the Navy, this business is personal.

    On the other hand, we are not as crippled industrially as some want to make us be (I live in the South, and I know that there are lots of industrial plants and activity within a day’s drive). What we have not had, since Reagan, is the political will to get out of the people’s way. This is why I support President Trump. He gets it. He’s a fighter.

  107. M Simon says:

    jim2 says:
    28 August 2017 at 3:10 pm

    M Simon. Arpaio is NOT a friend of the drug cartels. He merely enforces the law of the land. Don’t lie!

    Just because he is attacking them does not mean he is not a friend. Anyone who has ever studied Black Markets knows they depend on enforcement for their profits. One of two things are possible for Joe. He is ignorant. Which does not speak well for him. He knows what he is doing and continues because it is popular among the ignorant. Which does not speak well for him. In either case what he is doing helps the cartels. Objectively.

    We will dismantle the drug gangs and cartels the same way we did in the Alcohol boys.

  108. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    5 September 2017 at 4:05 pm

    Japan is unofficially hours away from having nukes. Probably similar for S. Korea. I do not think any of the “sides” really wants the US to leave the area.

    China is in big trouble (in the medium term). Their official national debt is 3 X official GDP. For the US it is 1X (of course reality differs from official pronouncements). China is very vulnerable to internal collapse. A common theme in Chinese history. Additional debt (from estimates I have seen) make GDP grow by less than 10%. When that number goes below 5% servicing debt becomes more difficult given their interest rate of about 7%.

  109. bruce says:

    I note some ideas expressed seem to run in the cold war meme. My very naive thinking asks the question, why would China want to ruin the world’s economies when it basically has everything by the nads now? In thirty years China’s only threat will be from within or from religious extremists, meanwhile it has no threat of invasion at all. Ruining the American economy only serves to weaken itself.

  110. M Simon says:

    And BTW jim2,

    It is even worse if you follow the literature on the subject.

    People in chronic pain chronically take pain relievers.

    Seems obvious doesn’t it. Yet we have invented this mysterious thing called addiction for which there is currently no official rational explanation. Except there is and I have provided it. And I have been providing it for about 12 years. And finally others are twigging to what I know:

    The Federalist – The Surprising Link Between Broken Families And America’s Opioid Crisis

    Addiction doc says: It’s not the drugs. It’s the ACEs – adverse childhood experiences

    14 Year Veteran Undercover Cop Exposes Truth About The Drug War: “I Used To Believe I Was Doing Good”
    He got disgusted when he figured out he was making war on abused children.

    So how do you think our age is going to be remembered when it becomes obvious that Christians were making war on abused children. Because it is the Christian right than now is the last obstacle to ending this mess. Despite the fact that it was the racist left that started it. The one thing you can say about the left is they have repented of this error (the rank and file anyway). It has always been this way. Going back near 100 years. .

    The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of Conservatives is to prevent mistakes from being corrected. Even when the revolutionist might himself repent of his revolution, the traditionalist is already defending it as part of his tradition. Thus we have two great types — the advanced person who rushes us into ruin, and the retrospective person who admires the ruins. He admires them especially by moonlight, not to say moonshine. Each new blunder of the progressive or prig becomes instantly a legend of immemorial antiquity for the snob. This is called the balance, or mutual check, in our Constitution. — G.K. Chesterton

  111. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like Irma might be setting up to be a repeat of the 1935 Miami Labor day hurricane


  112. Glenn999 says:

    Science question for those of us in the path of Irma. Why does wine sealed with a cork get ruined if floating in flood water and a message in a bottle stay dry?

  113. p.g.sharrow says:

    Glenn; If the bottle is sealed with a real cork, the cork has vesicles or micro tubes. The bottle tries to breath with barometric pressure changes. If the cork becomes contaminated, the bacteria migrates into the wine. This is a big problem with non-sulfide wine. you must keep the bottles upright and corks dry, all the time. If you store it on it’s side and the cork gets damp from the wine, the wine will spoil in a few months. Who would have guessed! “Cork Dorks” have always stored their bottles on their side. Took us years to figure this out at the local winery that makes “organic” wine. Cases of wine stored upright lasted for many years while those stored on their sides in wine racks went bad in a few months….pg

  114. jim2 says:

    M Simon. Too simplistic. I think genetics is also at play. Short of an iron fisted and bloody dictator, we will always have the poor and addicts. Even with the dictator, we’d still have poor.

  115. Larry Ledwick says:

    What about was sealed corks? Some liquors dip the top of the bottle in wax as a secondary seal.

    I heard they have found ship wreck wine that has spent decades underwater and it was supposed to be excellent others say problems with it. There are a few who are intentionally aging wine at sea.

    I would think short immersion would be no risk but extended submersion a bigger deal. More likely it is just a case of law suit fear and insurance payoffs to declare it unsafe.


  116. bruce says:

    This is the most incredible thing, a bit of terminator eyesight with computer interface, and it may be available in a year…

  117. llanfar says:

    @David – color me perplexed. I’m to click on a link who’s URL is a google ad?

  118. Glenn999 says:

    pg and larry
    fascinating stuff

  119. Larry Ledwick says:

    llanfar says:
    6 September 2017 at 2:27 pm

    Try just the last part of the URL that points at the actual page.

  120. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting article on China and her military research and changing priorities.


  121. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting Houston Hurricane trivia from twitter:

    Chris Milliner‏ @Geo_GIF

    GPS data show #Harveyflood was so large it flexed Earth’s crust, pushing #Houston down by ~2 cm! #EarthScience #HurricaneHarvey #txflood

    Chris Milliner‏ @Geo_GIF Sep 4

    Subsidence is beyond noise level. Yes perhaps some compaction, but time will tell if we see elastic uplift from unloading.
    1 reply 7 retweets 76 likes
    Chris Milliner‏ @Geo_GIF Sep 4

    To clarify as some peeps have misread this.Subsidence signal(>1cm) is larger (i.e.beyond) noise (<1cm).Thus signal is likely not an artifact
    1 reply 5 retweets 32 likes

    Chris Milliner‏ @Geo_GIF Sep 4

    Yes possibly, but some stations on bedrock also exhibit subsidence. Its probably both :)

  122. Larry Ledwick says:

    Chris Milliner‏ @Geo_GIF Sep 4

    You can find station data here: http://geodesy.unr.edu/NGLStationPages/gpsnetmap/GPSNetMap.html … I also put URL under figure :)

  123. Larry Ledwick says:

    Cool wind flows to see on the wind map, three hurricanes at once, one of them a Cat 5.


  124. philjourdan says:

    @Larry – I remember when there were 5 storms about 14 years ago out in the Atlantic. That was an awesome picture as well!

  125. E.M.Smith says:

    Just an FYI on my low presence lately. On Sept 5th I was in Orlando looking at reports of Irma. The week before I was figuring out how to miss Harvey… now I’m in Wyoming just south of the Yellowstone quake storm… tonight I expect to be back in California, so hopefully no big quakes there!

    A trip report coming after I get home and sleep some…

  126. p.g.sharrow says:

    After dodging massive hurricanes along the Gulf states, California quakes may seem to be kind of tame. ;-)…..pg

  127. philjourdan says:

    Looks like Irma is following Matthew’s path:

    The 12Z Wednesday runs of our top four track models—the European, GFS, HWRF, and UKMET models—were in strikingly close agreement that Irma will continue on a west-northwest track till Saturday, then arc sharply to the north-northwest. All four model runs placed the center of Irma within roughly 50 miles of Miami on Sunday morning; the latest 18Z GFS was also there. The average track error in a 4-day forecast is 175 miles, but this remarkable agreement among the models lends additional confidence to the NHC forecast track, which brings Irma over or very near southeast Florida on Sunday. All four models move Irma northward along or near Florida’s east coast, with landfall in Georgia or South Carolina on Monday.

  128. Larry Ledwick says:

    Another giant data security breach: This will affect just about everyone who has credit.

    FOX31 Denver KDVR‏Verified account @KDVR 1h1 hour ago

    #Breaking: Equifax security breach could impact 143M Americans – criminals got credit card info, SSNs, DOBs, more

  129. Larry Ledwick says:

    EM you want to do a thread on Irma?
    It is shaping up to be a major storm perhaps a repeat of the 1935 labor day Miami Hurricane.
    Best guess track might put the eye just off shore still over warm water as it rakes up the entire coastline of Florida.


  130. tom0mason says:

    Probably I’m a bit late with this but…

    Massive Antarctic volcanic eruptions linked to abrupt Southern hemisphere climate changes
    — screams the headline.

    The report is about chemical analysis of an ice-core and “New findings published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) by Desert Research Institute (DRI) Professor Joseph R. McConnell, Ph.D., and colleagues document a 192-year series of volcanic eruptions in Antarctica that coincided with accelerated deglaciation about 17,700 years ago.”

    “Detailed chemical measurements in Antarctic ice cores show that massive, halogen-rich eruptions from the West Antarctic Mt. Takahe volcano coincided exactly with the onset of the most rapid, widespread climate change in the Southern Hemisphere during the end of the last ice age and the start of increasing global greenhouse gas concentrations,” according to McConnell, who leads DRI’s ultra-trace chemical ice core analytical laboratory.

    Now don’t get me wrong, I believe this is a important find, but what I find interesting is the comment —

    Discovery of this unique event in the WAIS Divide record was not the first indication of a chemical anomaly occurring ~17,700 years ago.

    “The anomaly was detected in much more limited measurements of the Byrd ice core in the 1990s,” notes McConnell, “but exactly what it was or what created it wasn’t clear. Most previous Antarctic ice core records have not included many of the elements and chemical species that we study, such as heavy metals and rare earth elements, that characterize the anomaly – so in many ways these other studies were blind to the Mt. Takahe event.”

    Is this basically saying that good basic science has been overlooked in preference to just looking at CO2 in ice-cores? That climate science is and has distorted the approach that science has taken to the detriment of all other analyses, and that this CO2 funding boondoggle is determining the direction of research?
    If so then a serious look is required to reassess why and what good has it brought us.
    As far as I can see there is no good from it, except employing vast number of politically motived people in academia at huge public expense, keeping the media employed generating evermore scare stories, while freeloaders destroy Western electricity grids with mostly ineffectual and unreliable power generation, and ensuring the retention of an inordinate number of bureaucrats and NGOs in the UN. It certainly has not done the likes of Al Gore any harm.
    From —

  131. Larry Ledwick says:

    Hurricane Irma power outage impact prediction map showing probability of power loss by location.

  132. cdquarles says:

    Given that Equifax is located near me, they are used heavily in my area. I checked the link and agreed to sign up for monitoring. (I have other monitoring active, but this incident, in my mind, requires the backup from the affected company.)

  133. cdquarles says:

    @Larry, maybe. It is hard to be sure at this point. What concerns me, from an analytical chemist point of view, is how poorly the reports seem to be done in terms of rigor (error analysis and propagation, primarily).

  134. cdquarles says:

    Another thing that bugs me is the talk of a climate system. Climate is a statistical summary statement of the previously realized weather at a specific spot, just like the thermodynamic temperature is a statistical summary statement of a defined sample of matter’s internal kinetic energy and only the kinetic energy. Earth, I say, does not have a climate system. It has a weather system, a dynamic damped-driven deterministically chaotic weather system. I also wish that the misnomer of greenhouse gases be dropped and the use if IR active gases be used instead. It would also help if people quit conflating IR radiation (light) with heat (kinetic energy).

  135. A C Osborn says:

    Larry Ledwick says: 8 September 2017 at 1:56 am
    Could Irma instead do a Galverston Hurricane and drive straight across the gap between Florida and the Islands?
    Nobody seems to be considering this and yet it has happened before.
    Could it even meet the Storm System already there?

  136. Larry Ledwick says:

    Just about any scenario you can imagine has happened in the past. A few years ago we had a hurricane hit Florida twice. We have had them run in circles in the gulf and come back in to run across the peninsula from the west. So the answer is yes but current models say that is unlikely but things can change.

    Right now the models say it will run up the length of Florida and hit the coast in the Carolinas. The biggest unknown is exactly where the eye goes. If it goes up the spine of Florida it can weaken quickly unless the eye is big enough to span the whole state east to west so it can still draw energy from the warm waters. Worst case is for the eye to travel up the east coast just off shore where it can pull full energy from the shallow warm waters fed by the gulf stream and slam the coast with the right side eyewall all the way up the length of the state. That would push the storm surge ahead of the storm and pinch it against the bulge of the Carolinas which could yield very high surge levels.

    Like all wind driven water situations it is a combination of the direction of the local winds, the local sea floor contour, low barometric pressure, wind speed and duration all combining to determine how much sea water get stacked up on the right front of the storm where the surge is highest.

  137. E.M.Smith says:

    Well, I’m back home and putting things back together… Up and running on the “posting box” (that being the Odroid XU4) though I couldn’t remember where I hid the disk ;-) …. so I’m using the old USB home directory for now… One of the minor risks of putting things out of sight when on the road, remembering where you put them in a hurry…

    So the major purpose of the tip was accomplished. I now of 2 dogs… The Son and Daughter I.L. were swamped with a new kid and 2 dogs and a 3rd floor walks up… taking the dogs out every 4 hours on 3 flights of stairs with an infant wasn’t cutting it. So we were elected… (More on that in the trip report later).

    I’d originally planned to do a 3 cornered run. Florida for some administrative / business things, Chicago to drop of kid’s Fine Collection (of way too many old Shark’s Hockey sticks and more… a decade plus of season ticket ‘trophies’ from players leaving the ice…) and pick up 2 pooches (dachshund and Maltese) and drive home. Then Harvey got in the way… Driving traffic and rain up to I-40 and putting I-10 out of action.

    Bottom line was I-80… that put me near Chicago… so Drive to Chicago to drive to Florida and back? WT?… Got the last cheap bookings on Southwest for a Chicago / Florida round trip THEN had to do a fast run to Chicago to make the flight… and unload the car.

    While in Florida, Irma heads at me… Sigh. Got out just in time. Next to me on the flight were 2 young (late teens / 20s?) who had just left Puerto Rico (with about a day to spare…). Arrived in Chicago in time to load the car the next morning and head out. Along the way driving right past Yellowstone and the Quake Storm. Nothing like miles and miles of historic ash 100’s of feet high to get you focused… and now, about 48 hours after leaving Chicago, I’m back in California (with 8 hours of sleep in the bag ;-) and putting everything back together.

    The office is a mess. Torn to scattered piles of boxes some left 1/2 strewn… looking for the collection of things to take TO Chicago. (An electronic drum set among other bits). The Garage has similar issues (where I finally found 2/3 of the drum set that wasn’t in the office.). I’ve got 2 dogs set up with “temporary facilities” in the front 1/2 of the house, and a temporary “dog run” made from the dog run clip fence bits I had protecting the garden squares during the Bunny Years. Groceries run down during my absence need replacing. The car needs final unload (the rest of the Dog Stuff and final cleanup of my road trip detritus…) and then a Grand Unpacking of all the stuff unloaded but left packed. Oh, and laundry…

    And here I thought the marathon run was over… ;-0

    Well, the good news is I have a working workstation and can post some without using the tablet.

    One bit noticed was the Son stated Fall has “arrived early” in Chicago. It’s a sudden shift from hot / summer to cool / pleasant change in the air. On the way back, it rained on my in the Nevada High Desert. This morning, the Weather Nation (IIRC) had a map up of risks (hurricane tracking) showing excessive rainfall predictions. Nevada had a green blob over the western 1/2, so like I thought, that rain was unusual.

    Oh, and I’m in that “sleep deprivation and too much caffeine hangover” state. The spirit is willing but the body is saying No Effing Way ddude, take a nap (despite only having woken up 3 hours ago… guess that was for food and ‘changing fluids’ ;-) while the mind is foggy. There. Functional. But with long pauses for things like “The disk? What disk? Oh, yeah, this one needs a disk. I put it…. ‘somewhere safe’… Oh No!!!” With naps on demand, a nice Coffee Taper back to normal, and a nice slow tidy up of the office, all ought to return to normal in a couple of days. Dogs permitting…


    Saw Mexico got walloped with a big quake. One hopes that doesn’t move the stress point north… But I’m “good to go” up to about Richter 7.8 or so.

    I think I did OK with the Hurricanes too…. “Run away!!!” ;-)


    I think I may open a more generalized Hurricane thread, Harvey, Irma, Jose? whatever the next one is…

    (Also need to do WOOD3 and Sept Tips and…)

    Per Equifax:

    Years (decades?) ago I ranted about Credit Reporting Agencies and how it was a fat target. Nobody cared. (Pre-blog era for me). It’s just too much risk putting that much information in so concentrated a place with so many hands in the pot. Looks like “eventually” got here. And people wondered why I have no credit cards and don’t “do” debt anymore. (Mortgage going POOF! in the next 4 or 5 years, then NOTHING.)

    I have a 3 level financial strategy and it looks like it is now shown to be “worth it”. Actual money in a “major brokerage”. Only exterior transactions a check deposited into The Main Bank. It has a Debt / ATM card used to take out cash to put on a disposable Walmart (any brand would do) $6 Debit Card. That is used to “buy stuff”. I trust the bank not to raid my main brokerage account (that it is NOT electronically linked with anyway … and where it has 3 accounts and the one that writes checks only gets money moved into it just days prior to the check writing anyway… defense in depth…) and I trust that using the ATM card only in the bank ATM is “safe enough”. Then that cash transport is pretty hard to hack ;-) IF the Walmart Debit Card ever gets hacked, well, it has about $200 max on it at any one time and that’s not a big exposure. For $6 I get a replacement and “move on”… (The $3 one costs you $3 to make a deposit to it, the $6 one is free deposits at any Walmart, so load it once is break even… get the deluxe $6 one ;-)

    Used to look paranoid even to me… now it looks like “maybe enough” ;-)


    “Good luck with that”… I’m still trying to get folks to stop conflating temperature with heat… and failing. How can you get them to understand that the intrinsic property of temperature is not something you can average, only the extrinsic property of heat can be averaged when they think temperature and heat are the same thing? Sigh… Gee, I wonder if that’s part of the Grand Dumbing Down Plan… why teach folks real physics and chemistry; it will just make them harder to fool…

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  141. jim2 says:

    The “temperature” we measure with a mercury bulb, thermocouple, or thermistor is the average of the “temperature” (energy) of the particles impinging upon it. I take issue with the notion that one can’t calculate an average of temperatures. It’s certainly mathematically possible. I contend it even has physical meaning. The global average temperature compared to the global average today would convey meaningful information about the state of the Earth at those times.

    None of the above implies temperature and heat are the same thing.

  142. jim2 says:

    Correction: The global average temperature during Snowball Earth compared to the global average today would convey meaningful information about the state of the Earth at those times.

  143. E.M.Smith says:


    And there-in lies the rub…

    For that thermometer, the number of atoms, their phase changes, their specific heats, their mass, etc. etc. are all known or constants. That is, you do, in fact, have the needed things to compare the temperature OF THE INSTRUMENT as an average of kinetic energy of the molecules in it today vs yesterday.

    That is, you have used a device that is really measuring an extrinsic property, average thermal energy of the device, to provide information about an intrinsic property of its atoms. Their temperature.

    Now can you average the readings of that specific thermometer over a year and make statements like “winter was colder than summer”? Yes, certainly. Can you compare the “average on November 1” this year to last AT A GIVEN OUTDOOR LOCATION and make statements like “last year was hotter”? Not always. BOTH could have been reading a 0 C temperature OF THE THERMOMETERS but one was surrounded by dry air, the other surrounded by 10 feet of wet snow. Clearly one has much more thermal content than the other… You have now gotten a bogus idea about heat from your comparison of the two instruments. You tried to average the intrinsic property of temperature (derived from the heat of a constant instrument mass, specific heat, etc.) to the average of the SURROUNDINGS that have variation of mass, specific heat, phase changes, etc. etc.

    THAT is why you can not average the temperatures and retain any hope of understanding the heat flow of the environment. One is an intrinsic property (average atomic energy of the device) the other is an extrinsic property of the environment of the instrument.

    BTW, it gets even worse if last year was a LIG mercury thermometer and this year is an electric thermistor gizmo. The first “peak clips” excursions of up to several minutes due to the thermal mass of the glass and mercury. The other can give 1/10 second readings on the puff of air from a person reading it, or that passing jet on takeoff roll…. BOTH are reporting correct temperatures (state of the device), but they are two very different readings (average state of the environment), due to the changed physical factors. (Mass, specific heat, etc. etc.)

    So you can believe all you want that it’s OK to average temperatures, and occasionally not get into too much trouble with it. However, it will be wrong sometimes, often catastrophically, and you are in the land of provably wrong assumptions. At a very fundamental level, it is simply not possible to do such an average and be doing correct physics (or chemistry for that matter). Chemists regularly get themselves into trouble with calorimetry when they stray from the formal straight jacket, as one example.

    Easy personal proof:

    Get a pan of water. Freeze it solid. Attach thermometer.

    Get a 2nd pan of water. Into it, float, one at a time, small ice cubes just until one of them does not melt. Attach thermometer.

    Both now read 0 C.


    Missing data:

    Size of the two pans. It matters.

    Relative mass (volume) of water.

    Chemical composition of the waters – dissolved salts, gasses, history of boiling, etc.

    Specific Heat of the metals of the two pans. (Oh, you ASSUMED they were both the same? Well, one of mine is stainless steel about 1/2 inch thick, the other aluminum and about 1/4 inch…)

    Size, mass and composition of the two thermometers. Unless they are identical, your heat calculations are wrong. (See above about chemists and calorimetry problems…)

    Other external factors: Was one in the sun? On top of a running Bunsen burner? Stirred vs stratified?

    The list goes on…

    When you ASSUME all those external factors are constant, you are laying the trap of intrinsic vs extrinsic properties that will destroy your veracity. It is only a matter of time.

    To do good calorimetry, you must measure and KNOW all those things (and likely a few more I’ve left out… isotopic mix in the water for example…)

    As soon as you use “Average of temperatures” to reach your conclusion, you are wrong. The only question is “How much wrong?” and then the corollary “Is that enough wrong to render my conclusions useless, or merely misleading?” With a remote possibility that you are accidentally only wrong enough that it didn’t invalidate your answer, even if the method used to get it was bogus on the theory.

    Fundamental physics: It’s a bitch and doesn’t care what you think.

  144. E.M.Smith says:

    OH, and:
    “The “temperature” we measure with a mercury bulb, thermocouple, or thermistor is the average of the “temperature” (energy) of the particles impinging upon it.”

    Er, no. It’s the device, not what’s impinging on it, that we measure. We then make assumptions about the impinging. It’s the measure of a physical property of the measuring instrument (like expansion of mercury with heat addition raising temperature) that we correlate with some idea of average atomic energy of the instrument by holding the mass and environment (i.e. Stevenson’s Screens) constant in an attempt to control the external environment enough to not be too bogus. We then ASSUME the state of the instrument (often “plus enclosure”) represents a “good enough” approximation of the surrounding environment to infer some idea about the average kinetic energy of the atoms in the environment (often ignoring important bits like mass, state change, chemical composition changes etc. etc.) to use that notion of environmental average kinetic energy for some specific design purpose.

    So, for example. a Stevenson Screen LIG standard thermometer near a runway is “good enough” for giving the information needed to know if my airplane can take off, or not. Density Altitude calculations have enough “allowance for error” in them that a degree or two is usually not critical to making it into the air. (In ground school we had a standard ‘safety fudge factor’ but I don’t remember it now… a degree or two, I think.)

    Now use that “degree or two” precision and attempt to fabricate a hypothetical 1/10 C trend over time via averaging; you are just doing stupid a favor and embracing idiocy.

    This is why ignoring things like humidity and dew point cause no end of trouble in “climate science” and why ignoring the water (vapor, dew, snow, whatever) is a catastrophic mistake. It isn’t an IR driven radiative CO2 world. It is a water mass transport phase change world. Otherwise we’d not have a troposphere, storms, clouds, precipitation, etc. etc. Only above that in the stratosphere is it a radiative world, and there CO2 radiates heat to space, not “trapping” it.

    So yes, you can compare “the average of temperatures at the Runway 32 L Stevenson Screen” at 2 pm for the last week with the value today and reach a conclusion “Can I likely take off at 2 pm today, or not?” (assuming you did before at those temperatures). Go ahead and plan your trip. BUT, if they were in dry air, you are at your load limit, you didn’t use a fudge factor for safety, and the air today is less dense (lots of water vapor, lower barometric pressure), be prepared for an aborted takeoff.

    And do remember the thermometer is only telling you about its thermal state. If, for example, the runway was just resealed with tar oil, is much darker than last week, and the air over it hotter, that thermometer over the grass is lying to you about the “environment impinging on it”… and on your wing…

  145. jim2 says:

    “Er, no. It’s the device, not what’s impinging on it, that we measure. We then make assumptions about the impinging.”

    The impinging part is well understood using the kinetic theory of gases. And I stand by my statement.

    The fact that getting a REALLY GOOD measurement of air temperature is difficult in the real world is a different topic.

  146. Larry Ledwick says:

    The “temperature” we measure with a mercury bulb, thermocouple, or thermistor is the average of the “temperature” (energy) of the particles impinging upon it.

    That is a relatively accurate statement only if a couple conditions are satisfied.
    1.There is no apparent change taking place in the thermometer reading (ie the temperature it is showing is within reasonable limits at equilibrium with its environment)

    2. The time duration of observation used to determine it is in equilibrium is long with respect to the thermal time constant of the device.

    If a old bulb type thermometer takes 7 minutes to register a change of 1 degree in the exterior environment and you only observed it for 10 seconds, you have added an undocumented error to all the other errors (miscalibration, misreading etc.) the reading since you know that you did not observe the reading long enough to detect that it was not in equilibrium with its surroundings.

    If the calibration is known to be accurate to +/- 0.2 deg F and it is determined that the average user can only read a mercury column thermometer to 0.5 deg F precision, and that for small changes in exterior environment temperature the thermometer can only change it’s reading at a rate of 1 degree every 7 minutes, then your actual exterior reading could be anywhere within that combined error band. If the exterior air temp changed by 5 degrees the thermometer would not notice the change for 1-2 minutes and not achieve equilibrium until 5-6 minutes later.

    You now have a precision of something on the order of +/- 5.7 degrees of the actual temperature if you only observe the temperature for a very short interval because you have no way of knowing where on that equilibrium process the thermometer is.

    Then you add all the issues EM mentions and you end up with data which is simply not good enough to give fractional degree accuracy no matter what you do with the data, because the errors are not only unknown but unknowable.

    Typical airport weather reporting stations are simply not suited to making temperature measurements with sufficient accuracy or precision to get the results the researchers claim.

    I can pace off the distance between two points and claim I know the distance to a fraction of an inch but is complete BS no matter how carefully I pace the distance or how precisely I know my average stride, and there is nothing mathematical I can do to fix that problem. Even worse if I have 20 different people pace the distance to their mail boxes and then compute the average distance they have to walk to collect the mail, I still know absolutely nothing about how far observer x has to walk to get his mail. I have a statistic but it provides no useful data about the individual observers.

  147. E.M.Smith says:


    While I appreciate your dogged determination to “stick to your guns”, doing so when it is absolutely wrong is not particularly a valuable skill.

    Do realize that you are arguing against very well founded fundamental physics and math. Intrinsic properties are named that for the simple and demonstrable nature of them. They are unique to that ONE THING. They leave out the properties and information needed to compute useful things (like heat flow and heat content) and there is nothing you can do to change that. Ever. You must have the missing data to do any useful computation. (So yes, you can mathematically compute the average, but it is ONLY a statistic about a group of numbers. It has no physical meaning.)

    2nd: The thermometer does not measure temperature and it does not measure the environment. That is a more pedantic point, but as Larry pointed out, the temperature of the instrument takes time to match the environment, and in an environment in constant flux, it may never be reporting a temperature representative of the environment. That, too, MUST be an internalized understanding to use the instrument correctly.

    What a “thermometer” measures is some property that is not a temperature. It may be expansion of mercury, or alcohol. It may be a change of electrical resistance. It may be any of several other things, but what it is NOT is a temperature. Yes, we use “well understood theory” to derive a number we assert is a temperature, but that is NOT what was actually measured. Similarly, we may use “well understood theory” to ascribe a relationship between the instrument and the environment around it; but that is NOT a temperature either, nor is it the actual state of the environment. It is at best an educated guess based on some theory and some assumptions about the environment.

    In particular, take dew. When it starts condensing on your bulb thermometer, you are no longer measuring the air, are you… The heat of condensation is given up to the device, thus changing the device relationship to the “air environment” as well. There’s a whole zoo of similar issues. (Like, oh, frost…)

    So you can “stand by your statement” all you want. It is still wrong. Simply and demonstrably so. That’s not my opinion. It isn’t an opinion at all. It is how the devices work and how the nature of physical reality works through them. There is NO temperature measuring device. There are materials that have a change of some property which we can measure, and a calibration of that change to what we infer is temperature. That’s just a basic statement of what the devices are and now they work. Not an opinion. The device ONLY reports on the physical changes inside itself. We derive an expected temperature based on those changes. The mercury moves in the tube, but we scribe the lines on the outside, which measure volume of mercury. Then we assert what temperature ought to match each line (but that is a calibration, not a measure of temperature).

    How the device interacts with the environment, and what all changes in the interaction that puts into what we infer is a temperature has a load of assumptions (and attendant errors) in it. Many detailed and many ignored. That does not make them go away. From whitewash vs latex paint vs aged latex paint to soot / dirt collection to effects from dew to moisture content of the air to simply covering the Stevenson Screen with snow or using a wet hydrometer in the same enclosure as the thermometer, the list of disconnects from “the environment” is long and much more than “well understood using the kinetic theory of gases”.

    Yes, you can get somewhat useful information out of thermometers. No, it isn’t nearly as easy nor nearly as accurate as just about everyone thinks it is. (with the possible exception of grad-student-or-better chemists with lots of calorimetry experience and including several embarrassing failures..)

    But I simply must thank you. You have wonderfully illustrated my main point. The thing that started all this intrinsic vs extrinsic and averaging temperatures discussion. The only point I was trying to make:

    ““Good luck with that”… I’m still trying to get folks to stop conflating temperature with heat… and failing. How can you get them to understand that the intrinsic property of temperature is not something you can average, only the extrinsic property of heat can be averaged when they think temperature and heat are the same thing? Sigh…”

    So yes, you have illustrated that even folks with years of experience in this whole Global Warming issue, well steeped in all the tech, quite intelligent, and clearly possessed of good reasoning skills will refuse “to understand that the intrinsic property of temperature is not something you can average, only the extrinsic property of heat can be averaged”; which was what I was pointing out. So “thanks for that”.


    Misleadingly named, always wrong, typically misused, sometimes useful.

    And I’d now add: Often quite completely misunderstood in what they do, do.

    Please take just a bit of time to review:


    It really is a fundamental distinction that must be mastered before it is possible to talk about “average temperature” without fooling yourself. Sadly, one that essentially everyone in “Climate Science” just doesn’t “get” (or willfully ignores). True Believers and Skeptics alike, most of the time. Sad, really, as it puts the entire “Global Average Temperature” approach into the “Angels and Pin Heads” category. Arguing about the GAT really is arguing how many angels can fit on the head of a pin. Both are based on fantasies about things that do not exist. Global Average Heat Flux or Global Average Heat Content, those are real and could be compared over time. But require even more data that we don’t have to compute them.

    Oh, and often you see True Believers resort to heat calculations as a way of covering for the GAT not doing what they need. Like “the heat is hiding in the deep ocean” – finally bringing in mass, specific heat, etc. Sadly, only as “compare and contrast hand waving” and not as actual heat calculations… since the data needed do not exist.

    Oh Well. It’s what people do.

  148. E.M.Smith says:

    Oh, and a nice example of an intrinsic property and the meaningless average:

    The telephone number is unique to one phone. (That phone is usually connected to a given person). It is intrinsic to that phone, and by association, that person.

    You can average all the phone numbers in your phone book. It WILL produce an average. That average will NOT be a phone number (other than in the odd case where you have only one area code and prefix in your book…). It is a statistic ABOUT phone numbers. It is NOT a phone number.

    (408 555-1212 + 707 555-1212) / 2 = 558 055 1212

    Notice the prefix is 055. That doesn’t exist as typing 055 would have the zero take you to the operator… (unless in an odd location with mandatory area code dialing, then you could create it). Also where is area code 558?


    There is no area code +1 558 in North America (USA, Canada, etc.).

    International country code +55 is Brazil.

    It’s a very nice illustration of what happens when you average intrinsic / intensive values. The meaning is lost… You get a number, but it isn’t usable as anything other than a statistic about the distribution of a collection of numbers.

    One of the few examples that doesn’t require any chemistry or physics to understand.

  149. Lionell Griffith says:

    E. M., clearly you live in a reality that is what it is and take responsibility for knowing what it actually is. You do not confuse the name of the thing for the thing itself. For that I offer a mega bravo!

    Sadly, we live in a social climate that is antithetical to such a position. A thing is supposed to be what we name it. Thus, if we change the name, we change the thing. Then, if the thing refuses to cooperate with its name, it is the things fault. Thereby justifying the correction of our measurements to agree with our name. Magically, the output of a math model becomes data simply because we call it data and what is becomes what we want it to be. Especially when we ignore, evade, and deny what it actually is. This perspective has to improve to be as good as insanity and is ultimately fatal to all who follow it and many who don’t. Yet, this is the social climate in which we live.

    As Einstein is reported to have said: “only the universe and stupidity are without limit but I am not so sure about the universe.”

  150. cdquarles says:

    Thank you, EMS, for going through why classically trained analytical chemists fuss sometimes. You have shown how one must approach an experiment and how one must logically make conclusions. Thank you, Larry, for you have given an example of a proper error analysis and propagation.

    I will confirm your statement about calorimetry. Been there, done that, got the T-shirt. I tried to explain to some people in voice chat some time ago why there isn’t any global warming as usually attributed. Why? Calorimetry doesn’t work that way. Plus, ceteris paribus should not be assumed to be true at all times, in a damped-driven deterministically chaotic dynamic system. It may be true, conditionally, but how are you going to know that? /rhetorical

  151. E.M.Smith says:


    Yes “all things being equal” or “held constant” is a very bad assumption without proof of it being probable. Especially in a dynamic chaotic system in constant flux.

    IIRC, it was in my 4th University Chem class that we did the calorimetry. ( A B C and D. They were ‘separator’ classes used to weed out the ‘wanna-be’ Pre-Med from the rest. Started with about 450 per session and about a dozen sessions in 1-A and we were down to one session of about 250 people by 1-D … then I had organic and biochem… I changed majors just before Human Physiology – an upper division ‘separator’ class… but I digress…) I got it “right enough” on the 2nd or 3rd try. I think there were 2 of us out of 20 or 30 in our lab to ‘get it’ that quick. Despite the warnings, some folks could not resist things like changing or moving thermometers or touching them to read them…

    I really do believe that unless a person has done successful calorimetry in a lab environment, they have no clue how hard it is to measure heat gain / loss in a system.


    Yup, that’s me. Get no end of grief for being “reality centric”.

    One quasi-funny illustration: Last fence to replace is between me and a neighbor. We’re talking over what to do. They show me a photo of a fence they really like. It IS a beautiful fence. Most fences here are “good neighbor fences” with overlapping boards alternating sides. The proposed one has face nailed boards on both sides. I simply state a fact: “That will double your materials cost”. You would think I had suggested making stew from their pet dogs… Oh, the fallen face looks.

    Note: At no time did I say anything negative about the idea. Not “Don’t like it”. Not “I can’t afford that.” Not “I don’t like it”. I just failed to indulge in their fantasy of how good it looked so go for the best “all else being equal” by pointing out that the cost was not going to be equal, but double.

    So now they are thinking I’m going to be a pain about the fence. I’m not, but they KNOW I’m not in love with doing the whizz-bang fence they have an emotional bond with. In reality, I don’t care at all one way or the other. If my share of costs are reasonable, I’m in. Now if you try to confront that error of assumption, it just comes off as lame and makes things worse ( I know… lots of testing of that one… sigh.) Oh Well. It’s what people do.

    So they have gone off to look at materials. In a couple of days I’ll find out if they learned anything about fence types and materials costs, or not…

    Reality: It’s a non-negotiable bitch.

    Recognizing Reality and living in it: It’s a lonely place to live, but your spirit is pure…

    Keeping a Reality Centered Tidy Mind: Priceless…

  152. Reed Coray says:

    Didn’t the Pons-Fleischmann cold fusion fiasco of the 1980s have something to do with incorrect or misunderstood calorimetry results?

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