China Joins EU in Push To eCars

Looks like China is joining the push to eCars.

http://www.zdnet.com/article/china-to-phase-out-fuel-cars-in-favour-of-electric-vehicles

China to phase out fuel cars in favour of electric vehicles

China’s industry ministry is developing plans to phase out the sale of fuel-powered vehicles and promote electric vehicle technology, according to state media.

By Jonathan Chadwick | September 11, 2017 — 05:44 GMT (06:44 BST)

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is developing a time frame for ending the construction and sale of fuel cars as it makes the transition to electric vehicles (EVs), according to state media citing a Cabinet official.

Deputy industry minister Xin Guobin said at an auto industry forum on Saturday that his ministry has begun “research on formulating a timetable to stop production and sales of traditional energy vehicles”, according to Xinhua News Agency, such as gasoline and diesel cars. No specific target dates were given in the reports, however.

China is the biggest auto market in the world by number of vehicles sold, meaning such a policy change could have a sizeable effect on the global industry.

The country joins France and Britain in their plans to oust fuel cars, both of which announced goals in July to completely stop sales of gasoline and diesel automobiles by 2040 to reduce pollution and carbon emissions.

I can’t help but think there are ulterior motives in this. More demand for the “Rare Earth” elements they produce. More demand for cheap electric gear they produce. Less foreign exchange going to buying oil from Arabs. More control of the population (monitor charging and you monitor movement and location, shut off charging rights and you ‘brick’ folks you don’t like…)

I wonder just how long it will take to have folks realize that the Governments of the world are tightening the noose on the liberty and freedom of movement brought by the gasoline car…

Well, looks like I’m going to get my Diesel Wagon fixed back up. (It ‘spun’ #2 bearing a few years back). I can make my own Diesel and I expect it to be available for a very long time anyway since replacing the trucking fleet is far far away… Oh, and it also loves Jet-A ;-)

So I’m “set” for the rest of my life with a great car with broad fuel choices.
(My Sedan is going to outlive me already ;-)

From the Tesla description we see that they track your charging via their billing process:

https://www.tesla.com/support/supercharging

Supercharging is simple and convenient—just plug in and charge up. Supercharging history is automatically populated in your Tesla Account showing the credits used or, if applicable, the amount billed. Tesla is committed to ensuring that Supercharger will never be a profit center.

Think it might ever be an issue to have Government TLAs watching where you charge up and when? How about WHEN the data gets hacked? Think anyone might want to know when you are out of area and not going to be back for a few days? I can see a large demand for that information by both TLAs and home robbery gangs. And the PRC Commissars…

Sigh. So many people paying so little attention to risks and hazards, both from non-Government bad guys and from governments. Anonymity and freedom are antithetical to the Government Type.

This will also have lots of implications for various car makers. Tesla will “suddenly” get lots of competition as everyone wanting to sell cars in China will need an eCar line. I suppose the big question is just how much Government can force folks into buying eCars if we don’t want them…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Economics - Trading - and Money, News Related, Political Current Events, Tech Bits. Bookmark the permalink.

18 Responses to China Joins EU in Push To eCars

  1. philjourdan says:

    Your analysis is spot on. What do they have a lot of? Coal. But coal does not run cars very well. But it powers powerplants very well! It is actually a smart move for China.

  2. Nick Fiekowsky says:

    How about restricting fossil-fueled vehicles to a single lane with a strictly enforced 55 MPH limit to ensure efficiency. Also frustration.

  3. E.M.Smith says:

    @Nick:

    Didn’t we do that already? WIth the result that Nixon is one of the most hated presidents ever….

    @Phil:

    Yes, good for China, but not so good for the Chinese People…

    In digging around, it looks like very early adopters of some Tesla models were given free electricity for life when they bought the car. Now I can see why so many were sold to rich folks locally. Daily commute is in range. Electricity is free. You get to use the carpool lane alone. Climate is mild so no worries about heaters or AC sucking your battery flat. Hell, IFF I’d had a spare $80k laying around and needed a commuter status box I’d have bought one. Besides, it would extend the life of my Diesels for long haul trips ;-)

    Looks like now the “inducement” is down to something like 1000 kWhr or some such. Call it 10 charges…

  4. Since battery-powered tractors and harvesters look to be a non-starter (they need to run all day without stopping), Diesel will be available a very long time. I suspect the Tesla will be tracked anyway, so the tracking of where you charge it is not really important. Even if you charged it by your own solar panels they’d still know where you were. And of course it’s going to be hacked and there will be information leaks, which they won’t admit to unless it becomes obvious to others and even then not made public at least 6 months.

    I’d quite like an electric car, actually, but I’d want to carry a generator with me. I never liked the smell of Diesel or petrol, but liquid fuel remains the best way to recharge the system on the go without taking a long time and with reasonable safety. Compressed gas is inherently more dangerous and less energy-dense. I’d also want one that doesn’t have a connection to the net and can’t be remotely hacked, and unfortunately even new ICE-based cars fail on that front. Have you noticed that some now come with inbuilt tracking devices? Just in case they are stolen, of course….

  5. Larry Ledwick says:

    Electric car folks just can’t comprehend long haul trips out here in the west. Some farming folks in western Colorado, the eastern plains, wyoming, and Montana to name 3 states, drive 150 miles each way to stock up on groceries. Of course they use a pickup truck, because you can’t get 300# of dog food in your Tesla, a 50# bag of potatoes, and another 150 # of miscellaneous canned goods and groceries. Besides who wants to take 2 days to make a 300 mile round trip that in an internal combustion car takes about 4 hours.

    The population control aspects of electric cars do raise some interesting questions about what the real agenda is for all electric cars.

    Regarding tracking as we get more and more license plate readers and traffic cams it won’t matter if you are driving a 55 chevy pickup truck they will still be able to figure out where you go if they are sufficiently motivated to use big data to pull your driving history.

  6. Larry Ledwick says:

    Now that you mention it on electric car battery range – it seems that Tesla helped out owners of their lower end cars by making online software changes in those models so they could fully use the actual battery capacity the car possessed. Turns out the lower price point cars actually have the exact same battery capacity as the higher end models but are just crippled at the factory to set a lower usage capacity to justify the lower cost selling price.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/shortcuts/2017/sep/11/tesla-hurricane-irma-battery-capacity

    So how long do you think it will take for open source coders to figure out a hack to unlock that battery capacity or otherwise tweak the software in Teslas and other electric cars?

  7. Larry Ledwick says:

    Another possibility is a hack of the car’s software to maximize distance between charges by other means, for example limits on top speed, killing AC and other parasitic loads, putting limits on rate of acceleration etc.

  8. hillrj says:

    China might be different, but the UK has a history of good intentions resulting in large govt schemes to fix problems that turn out to be a complete waste of money. The earliest I remember is a vast peanut (ground nut) farm in Africa. In the 1950s, I think that whenever the governing class has a consensus that something is a problem, then its time to run for cover.

  9. E.M.Smith says:

    @hillrj:

    ALL centralized governments suffer from that disease. Between self dealing, graft for family and friends, being bribed, and the poor data flow to and back from a single Central Point Of Failure with limited capacity to comprehend; it’s pretty much guaranteed Central Authority makes bad decisions and endorses boondoggles…

    @Larry:

    Tesla ONLY opened the battery tap capacity for residents of Florida. Any bets on how long before folks start to holler about that?…

    I wonder how big the market is for Surly Curmudgeon Cars without computers and tracking facilities… Maybe a future for a ‘kit car’ for the DIY class…

    Oh, and don’t talk to me about Long Haul! I just drove from Chicago to SF Bay Area in about 44 hours. Only a few hours spent napping, the rest diving and filling (eating largely done ‘in motion’ on snack food…) Chicago to Iowa through Nebraska and wyoming in one shot. First nap at the Utah border. Then there’s the I-10 runs to Florida. Crossing Texas isn’t a drive, ti’s a career… 935 miles in one shot. I usually do SF to near El Paso on the New Mexico side in one run, then to the other side of Texas (barely), then the final 3rd or sometimes 4th day to destination depending on how far I got each day and how sleep deprived I can stand. eCar? No way….

    Oh, and when the kid was in college, we did a roughly 400 mile run down, then back, sometimes the same day depending on what was being done. So 800 miles in a day. Maybe only 750 if we didn’t go anywhere down there, just dropped off and returned. No time sitting still to speak of.

    While my folks were alive, I’d do a 210 mile each way run to see them on weekends. Doable with a Tesla as long as you don’t visit around at the other end…. Then there is skiing. 300 ish miles uphill to 6800 foot elevation. While the return uses about 1/2 the gas you expect, the uphill grind just sucks the fuel down… I don’t think you can make that ski run in a Tesla… would require a charging up stop about Sacramento for an hour on the fast charger.

    Yeah, out West is very much different from back East and inside cities.

    Still, I’d be happy to have one as a 2nd or 3rd car for local commuting. Just to work and back and groceries on the way.

  10. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry:

    From that link:

    “There’s going to be a huge increase in prices in 2021-22 if effective electrification becomes as widespread as people expect,” Marchionne said. “That, based on everything I know in terms of economics, will cause a shrinkage of demand.””

    No shit Bawanna!

    In the USA we already have a 12 year average car lifespan and rising. I know I’m not going to buy any new car costing over $25,000 which means pretty much any of them. My old Diesels cost me about $2000 / year. I’ happy to drive a $50,000 car for that cost. Even if it does need pain.

    Frankly, given the crap that’s already being shoved into cars, that I do not want, including a Black Box of benefit only to insurance companies and lawyers and tracking devices for the government, plus a growing list of “mandated” items like tire pressure sensors to benefit companies paying political graft; I’m seeing no reason to buy ANY new car.

    Now add in a range limit of less than I drive before breakfast, a long refill time about 10 x my regular stop duration, remote control of my car’s function, and a price bump of at least 30% with a fuel that is suffering rapid and politically driven price hikes, then season with a Major Component (battery) that is going to fail in a few years and need replacing to assure zero resale value at that point (who will pay $5000 for a replacement battery for a $3000 used car? eh?). Just not interested, and will not be.

  11. oldbrew says:

    Every filling station in the land will need to become a car park with multiple charging points.

  12. Russ Wood says:

    Living here in Johannesburg, South Africa, it’s a 400 mile drive to the nearest coast (Durban), so most of a day’s drive for some beach time. Driving to the Mother City (Cape Town) is about 1000 miles, and unless you’re young and stupid like my son, you take two days to do it. We have a speed limit of 120 km/h (70+ mph) on all our intercity roads. EV’s MIGHT be OK for commuting. When my wife drives across town, it’s about 75 km (45 mi) round trip, but when I was employed, my daily commute was about 130 km (78 mi), and I was leaving home and arriving in the semi-dark. Yes, well, so much for solar recharging.

  13. Larry Ledwick says:

    I’m afraid all those little challenges will start to show up soon. Most folks who have those cars have them as commuter only cars. Works fine where they are now but some of those folks are going to get new jobs and suddenly their cars won’t be all that useful any more if they have to drive farther each day. It is going to be one of those light bulb moments when they bump into those physical limitations during an evacuation or taking the kid to college, or having to drive to grandma’s place for Christmas because all the airlines are grounded by fog or something off the wall like that.

    As EM mentioned I am waiting for the chickens to come home to roost on the battery replacement cycle. If that turns out as I expect in a few years older electric cars will be almost give away free items as people realize putting a new battery pack in an older electric is going to be like finding a replacement battery for that old lap top that is no longer made.

  14. Steve C says:

    There is a suggestion that China are not entirely abandoning oil, as they seem to be setting up a handy deal with Russia and Iran

  15. E.M.Smith says:

    @SteveC:

    I have the nagging suspicion that China and Saudi / OPEC are in a “gentle war” over oil. China pushing eCars to avoid buying oil and sell more “stuff”, while Saudi wants to keep selling oil. The EU being largely devoid of domestic oil, jumping on the China side. How the ROW Rest Of World will sort out, TBD. (Can’t see crossing the Outback in an eCar…)

    The EU likely also seeing it as an anti-Russia move as well. Drive down the major economic tool Russia has to influence Eurasia.

    Me? I just want cars that work and let me be private about it…

  16. Wayne Job says:

    Towing a trailer or a caravan for a holiday trip may be a challenge for the range of these electric vehicles. A petroleum powered generator would be necessary to keep the vehicle charged especially in mountain touring.

  17. E.M.Smith says:

    @Wayne:

    Yeah, that’s going to be an interesting one… how to make an eRV … Bus sized and used away from The Grid. Often with their own Onan Generator to provide electricity to the “home on wheels”. Maybe they can make a battery powered generator ;-)

    I suspect a hybrid design is about as far as they can take it. It would be a decent design too. Recover regenerative braking power. Have the main engine also be the generator for coach power. Use an inverter from the main battery pack for most power, kicking in the motor-generator as needed, but generally infrequently so avoiding the constant drone of gensets in the woods…

    But it will be running mostly on Diesel or Gasoline…

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