W.O.O.D. – 20 Nov 2017

This is another of the W.O.O.D. series of semi-regular
Weekly Occasional Open Discussions.
(i.e. if I forget and skip one, no big)

Immediate prior one here:
and remains open for threads running there
(at least until the ‘several month’ auto-close of comments on stale threads).

Canonical list of old ones here: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/category/w-o-o-d/

So use “Tips” for “Oooh, look at the interesting ponder thing!”
and “W.O.O.D” for “Did you see what just happened?! What did you think about it?”

For this week, I’m mostly busy with home repairs and holiday prep. In the news, we’ve got Rhodesia / Zimbabwe tossing leadership, Catalonia is still trying to decide who’s the leader, and Germany playing political football (will they ever form a government?). Going to be interesting times if Merkel gets tossed in a “snap” election. Who will drive the EU into the ditch if she’s gone? The French with Macron?

Then this bit from a link in Tips (h/t Larry):


Twitter is cracking down on hate speech and not just by looking at its own site.

In what amounts to a major shift in Twitter policy, the company announced on Friday that it will be monitoring user’s behavior “on and off the platform” and will suspend a user’s account if they affiliate with violent organizations, according to an update to Twitter’s Help Center on Friday.

SEE ALSO: Inside the reckoning of the alt-right on Twitter

“You also may not affiliate with organizations that — whether by their own statements or activity both on and off the platform — use or promote violence against civilians to further their causes,” the update reads.

Twitter isn’t taking action immediately. Rather, it’s given users until December 18, 2017 when it will then begin enforcing the rule. The month-long wait is due to regulations in the European Union that require companies to inform users of a new policy change 30 days prior to enforcement.

The Dec. 18 deadline also applies to using “hateful images or symbols” in profile images or profile headers. Twitter will also monitor for hate speech in usernames, display names, and profile bios.

So twitter is to become the Thought Police, even OFF their site? OK… One wonders if this policy will also be applied to such actually violent folks like ANTIFA and the Soros Color Revolution promoters… Well, it certainly opens the gate for non-censorship platforms. Like:

The Comical Farce called the “Russian Meddling” game is continuing as RT is forced to register as a “Foreign Agent”. (Please, dear Nanny State, have the BBC, Fance24, DW, Al Jazeera, and probably even PBS so register too… Oh, and EVERY SINGLE SOROS ORGANIZATION where they pride themselves on their “Color Revolutions” deposing governments.) So I guess now that makes Larry King and Jessie Ventura “Russian Agents” as they host shows on RT. IMHO, one of THE best sources for the dirt our domestic media wants to hide and a look on the other side of the wars the USA / EU push all over the place. I don’t have to agree with their POV to want to see their POV. (Hell, I sometimes even read articles in the New York Times, despite it being a Left Wing Nut Talking Points rag.)

Wishful thinking, political theatre, preparations for post 2018 “win” by the Dims, or mental masturbation?

House Dems introduce articles of impeachment against Trump

By Maegan Vazquez, CNN

Updated 12:52 AM ET, Thu November 16, 201

Washington (CNN)House Democrats introduced articles of impeachment Wednesday against President Donald Trump, though they acknowledged their efforts have no chance of success while Republicans control both houses of Congress.
Rep. Steve Cohen, D-Tennessee, introduced five articles of impeachment that include obstruction of justice for Trump’s decision to fire former FBI Director James Comey, two emoluments clause violations, undermining the independence of the federal judiciary and undermining the freedom of the press.

He told members of the press he would likely be facilitating briefings in lieu of hearings.
“There are many reasons why I think the President is an awful President, an awful person, but not all those reasons rise to the level of impeaching a sitting President. We are not seeking his impeachment because of what he did before he was President,” Rep. Luis Gutiérrez, D-Illinois, one of the bill’s co-sponsors, said beside Cohen.
White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders responded in a statement, saying time spent calling for Trump’s impeachment “would be better spent focusing on tax relief for American families and businesses.”
“It’s disappointing that extremists in Congress still refuse to accept the President’s decisive victory in last year’s election,” she said.
Michael Ahrens, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, called the impeachment effort “radical.”
“House Democrats lack a positive message and are completely unwilling to work across the aisle, so instead they’ve decided to support a baseless radical effort that the vast majority of Americans disagree with,” he said.

This isn’t the first time Democrats have argued to impeach Trump. Earlier this month, Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Washington, said the President has committed “significant constitutional impeachable violations,” adding that Democrats needed to act.

They really can’t accept that They Lost, Hillary was a horrible candidate, and We The People WANT Trump to knock heads.

Then there’s the weather turning cold all over. Normal winter. A bit colder in some places, a bit warmer in others, depending on which side of the meridional flow you are on. Yet The Climate Follies continue with paid expenses and lush surroundings for all sycophants in attendance. Is there no way to fight the Incredible Power Of Stupid?

With that, Happy Turkey Day for those of you in the USA (or similarly inclined)!

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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56 Responses to W.O.O.D. – 20 Nov 2017

  1. Larry Ledwick says:

    Since you linked to that earlier post, will continue with this item here:


    Seems that the “election interference” meme is actually cover for PC censor ship on all the major social networks. Using it as the justification to muzzle those who do not espouse politically correct views on all subjects (big brother is in the house).

  2. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well this Thanks Giving, I guess I will thankful for capable IT guys who backed up Clinton’s email on cloud storage.


  3. A C Osborn says:

    You think you guys in the US have got it bad.
    As a UK citizen I have been reading the articles in the 2012 Telegraph and yesterday’s Daily Express on Memorandum FCO 30/1048?
    It was written to Edward Heath in 1971 and outlines why the Government should not tell the UK public what joining the EEC actually meant.
    The Civil Servant(s) that wrote it were very good.
    It is a must read on why we actually should not even be in the EU let alone leaving it.



    The comments in the Express also highlight some other very dubious dealings at that time as well.
    Basically it amounted to a form of High Treason, which has been perpatuated ever since by subsequent UK Governments.

  4. Larry Ledwick says:

    An historical geo-strategic look a the first Thanks Giving in Plymouth Colony.


  5. E.M.Smith says:

    The problem Tesla faces is a fixed pool of people willing to pay big dollars for a limited car. Every year, more of that pool have bought the product. Then to whom to sell?

    So he must roll out new models to new segments to stay alive.

    The pool of electric car fans who have not bought one drops each year. He must grow the pool. But with more vendors selling eCars, even with segment growth he has less potential to harvest.

    So he’s stuck with adding new vehicles of different design with new manufacturing problems. That’s hard to do and expensive.

    Mandates for eCars can help him in Europe, but also hurt as they motivate the Majors to enter his market…

    In the end, it becomes a cost to manufacture battle. Those end with biggest cheapest builder wins. Testla is not the biggest nor the cheapest.

    It will take a few years, but Tesla ends up a brand name in the product line of one of the majors. Only questions are who, when, and how much…

  6. Larry Ledwick says:

    interesting little bit if true! (this is probably a “Potemkin village” but in time it will become very real in both Russia and China)


    This is one weapons development area we are currently playing catch up, (both Russia and China have done more testing than we have) and once operational (assuming they are effective) these very fast missile will severely stress our fleet defense systems and drastically shorten the OODA loop for decision making.

    (The phrase OODA loop refers to the decision cycle of Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act, developed by military strategist and United States Air Force Colonel John Boyd)


  7. E.M.Smith says:

    We will need to kove to robotic defense guns / rockets in response…. hope the self driving water taxis snd delivery drones know how to aboid being shot…

  8. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ref above comments about Tesla:


    The car manufactures best keep in mind why most people buy cars – – – To get from point A to point B when they want to get there. Sometimes it is just random travel for the sake of travel. Gadgets sell to folks who already have practical cars, but in large metro areas outside high density areas, where highly efficient public transportation is simply impossible to build, the personal car is king and the majority of buyers are not buying a second or third specialty car, but basic transportation that gets them to work, the kids to soccer practice, and picks up 50# bags of dog food and some potting soil.

    Someday auto driving cars will work for some uses but still fail for others. Tell me how you write a computer algorithm that drives around looking for garage sales, or just goes out to enjoy a spring day or look at the changing leaves in the fall?

    Real people do not have entirely predictable and rational travel needs, sometimes they just go places to go places, feeding the inner curiosity to find out what is over that next hill, or cruising neighborhoods looking for a place you would like to buy a house, or rent an apartment, or any other random activity that is not driven by a specific pre-planned end point.

  9. jim2 says:

    LL – I agree. A lot of these big ideas from the tech ‘giants’ are just rabbit holes for money to explore. Not much else.

  10. Lionell Griffith says:

    “…or any other random activity that is not driven by a specific pre-planned end point.”

    That is to be prohibited in the future they have planned for us. we are to live in concentrated mile high blocks of featurless warrens of small apartments. We are to get permission to travel. We will be told were we can go, when we can go there, and how we will get there. There will be no more self planned travel to a location of our choosing especially nor the time nor means of travel. If we don’t obey, we will be sent to retraining centers of their choosing. Our retraining will be maximally efficient up to and including our final dispositions if we don’t cooperate.

    Our self selected elite will decide all things “for our own good” based upon the interests of the collective. Which, indecently, they have selected themselves as the choosers and masters.

    The Brave New World and 1984 will seem as paradise by comparison for those of us who think we have a right to live free of such oppressive intrusion.

    It is getting way past time to stop feeding them. Soon it will have happened and not by our choice.

  11. Jeff says:

    @Larry, The “gee whiz” enthusiasm of whoever wrote that article (FoxNews link) reminds me of the old Popular Mechanics articles on tech of the future. They probably had an article like this, back in, say, 1961:

    Hypersonic speed is the stuff of science fiction. As explained in IBT: “The missile employs revolutionary scramjet technology to reach its hypersonic speeds”…

    Seems like no one told them scramjets have been around a long, long time. Somewhat of an answer looking for a problem, but (FoxNews) they’re not new. Muh Russians, Muh Russians. Must’ve been a conspiracy :)

    Gotta love that pic, exploding debris. And the date, April 01, 2017…

    Having said that, I hope Secretary Mattis is pushing hard to recover the lost ground the Ø and his globalist weasel predecessors caused us… Mach 8 (or even 5) is scary stuff indeed.

  12. Jeff says:

    @Lionell Griffith,A good dose of the Declaration of Independence, indeed of Jefferson’s admonition about the blood of tyrants and patriots needing to be spilled every so often to preserve freedom and liberty, is what is needed. To wit:

    We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.

    That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness.

    Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.

    But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.

    Would that we had such stout-hearted, patriotic, and visionary men here in Europe…

  13. Lionell Griffith says:


  14. jim2 says:

    “Robert Cringely has a plan to ensure that internet providers will never profit from the end of net neutrality:”


  15. jim2 says:

    “”Tesla’s newest promises break the laws of batteries,” writes Bloomberg. Long-time Slashdot reader rudy_wayne summarizes their report.”


  16. Jeff says:

    A huge problem with batteries is energy density. And for storage batteries (e.g. LiPo), low enough internal resistance coupled with high energy density and large capacity (and, say, hazardous chemicals), is a recipe for disaster.

    Of course Musk &co. never mention the “issues” in the mines in China and elsewhere that are used to supply his battery company(ies). Nor do they mention what happens (and how much it costs) when the battery of one of his vehicles goes completely flat. And, as an article on NTZ mentioned a while back, how would Floridians and their evacuation, and their emergency services have done with all-electric in the recent Hurricanes?

    What of folks in an electric vehicle, on a subzero (C°) night, in a blizzard going to do when their battery runs low? Not going to be any Electric electro-charging trucks out and about, I expect…

    I think Elon Musk is just a more refined version of the CAGW wealth-redistribution schemes. Our money -> his pockets. Be it by purchasing one of his e-cars (or even trucks/semis) or by paying tax (Fed or State) which is funneled into his “please send money, it’s only a pie-in-the-sky” projects…..

  17. Larry Ledwick says:

    Hmmm appears that this last year has been sort of dry regarding snowfall here in Denver.
    1959 was a fun year for playing in the snow had one snowfall that was about 36 inches, with big drifts we could dig tunnels into.


  18. Steven Fraser says:

    EM: Saw this late. Was with my Physicist brother in Seattle area for the holiday, and was having enjoyable F2F at the expense of online. Met his grandkids for the first time. Life is good.

  19. philjourdan says:

    Re: Impeachment. I am no fan of Bannon. But he is correct. The republicans are doing everything they can to become the minority party permanently. Trump has done nothing to be impeached for (yet), but Obama did plenty. Yet the republicans took that option off the table, even though SCOTUS unanimously over ruled him 23 times during his presidency, and that trend continues to this day.

    I had no illusions about Trump accomplishing anything during his term, and nothing has changed my mind in that regard. However, what the republicans are demonstrating is how to kill yourself by being petulant.

  20. llanfar says:

    @phil. They haven’t been Republicans and Democrats for decades… it’s been a uni-party with 2 faces to hide the truth…

  21. Larry Ledwick says:

    Gee this sounds like a productive and efficient way to do law enforcement!
    Any bets on when the lid blows off this pressure cooker?


  22. Larry Ledwick says:

    From twitter:
    If true this explains a lot.

    Amongst UK 16-24 year olds:

    50% have never heard of Lenin.
    70% have never heard of Mao.
    72% have never heard of Pol Pot.

  23. E.M.Smith says:

    You would think UK kids would know who John Lenin was …


    But seriously: It’s of great concern when you start learning to ask “So you know who FOO is?” prior to making a reference to them in conversations. I’ve come to realize that often folks didn’t understand what I was saying as I’d be using reference points they did not have.

    Like saying “We need a new Battle Of Britain like defense of…” it just doesn’t work if they have no idea what was the Battle Of Britain.

    Consider that just about everyone under 30 today has grown up with their nose planted on a phone screen and their world view limited to about 3 x 5 inches and Twit sized bytes of snark passing as information.

    I used to spend days at the library reading the encyclopedias. Just loved ’em. Long complicated articles that made you think about things. Near as I can tell, nobody at all does that today. Even rags like Scientific American have gone on a volume reduction and contain fluff articles with political spin even for that. It’s all “Gee Whizz Sizzle” and no steak.

    So just where would they have read any history? Where would they hear the speeches of a Winston Churchill? Who would tell them about the World Wars and the Cold War? Those are all ancient history and nobody reads history anymore… not when they have the Kardashians to keep up on and J-Lo to watch…

  24. E.M.Smith says:

    “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump” by Bandy Lee:

    Author was just interviewed on France24. She was pushing the notion that President Trump is unstable mentally and that “hundreds” of psychiatrists agree… Looking to set up ‘a panel of experts’ to examine not just the president but all candidates as well. So “consensus” and “science” to be used to oust a sitting President? I think I’m seeing a pattern to the opposition to freedom and independent thought…

    Now what could possibly go wrong with a “panel of experts” carefully chosen (by whom???) from the strongly left leaning (and somewhat ditzy) field of Psych Professionals acting as gate keeper on just who can become our leader? Can’t have Winston Churchill types (he was a manic-depressive with a drinking problem). Can’t have a John Kennedy (clearly delusional as he thought we should go to the moon when that was impossible and just because it was hard; and had sexual exploits he could not control) Can’t have a Mandela (anger management issues…). Can’t have a Macron ( has “mother” issues / Oedipus complex)… well, that one might be a benefit ;-)

    So looks like there’s at least one group trying to prove / push the impeachment for mental health causes angle.

    Looks like Trump “reTweeted” 3 videos showing Muslims committing atrocities of a kind known to have happened (hell, shown on TV live some times), so this makes Trump evil… see, he isn’t being culturally sensitive and accepting their needs… and pointing out they are different… Gee, maybe he even read their book and knows it is exactly what the Koran instructs to do. The Evil Man… /sarc;

    News is also saying North Korea altitude of last launch means they can now nuke all of the USA throughout N. America. Welcome to the new Cold War. Guess I need to dust off my old Soviet era bug-out plans and escape route practice. Before we could get “far enough” away after a sub-launch took out Moffett Naval Air Station (where the sub-hunters were based) to be safe before the big boomers landed on Silicon Valley (makers of control systems for weapons and coms gear). Now Moffett is an industrial park and any attack will be more political driven than infrastructure aimed, so who knows if 10 minutes is enough. (We were in the ‘survive’ zone of a small sub launch on Moffett, and that gave 15 minutes to bug out; which put us far enough away behind a hill for “the big one” with predicted road traffic and such – other than at the 5 PM commute home…)

    Well, with any luck (and given the N.K. limited inventory) the populated suburbs of the S.F. Bay Area are not of interest (and D.C. is…). In the decades since the USSR ended, lots more population here and roads less easy for a bug out run.

  25. p.g.sharrow says:

    @EMSmith; If your bug out time is 10 minutes, you are already a day late to escape from the South Bay! Maybe the back way might get you into the hills to the south. Given the accuracy of a NK ballistic missile, being the target might be the safest place…pg

  26. Rhoda Klapp says:

    Isn’t there a B-52 base in that direction?

  27. philjourdan says:

    Ut oh! Your escape may be blocked. Apparently Cali just spent half a billion on broken concrete – http://www.chicoer.com/environment-and-nature/20171128/new-lake-oroville-spillway-already-has-cracks

    h/t WUWT

  28. Lionell Griffith says:

    “Apparently Cali just spent half a billion on broken concrete”

    Just doing what government do. Spend money they don’t have in a way to require the spending of more money in the future. The result will be doomed to the same fate and the government will spend still more money in a way to require the spending of still more money in the future…to be continued.

    The expectation is that taxes can be repeatedly raised to cover the spending. The consequence of that will be the people who were expected to pay the taxes will leave the state. Thereby leaving behind only the minimum wage earners, the unemployed, and the illegal immigrants to pay the taxes.

    What could go wrong?

    It is one thing to take the golden eggs from the goose but keep feeding it. It is quite another thing to eat the goose rather than feed it. Soon, no more geese, no more gold, just good old fashion hard times without the possibility of recovery. A repeat of the dust bowl era in the reverse direction is well under way.

    Thank goodness I escaped from California early this year. California is looking even more grim than it did when I left.

  29. Larry Ledwick says:

    For the technical trivia freaks – To rehash some old Civil Defense info we used to teach – if trying to escape Nuclear Weapons Effects, you are actually trying to avoid three very different threats. Thermal flash, air blast and down wind fallout hazards.

    Thermal flash, you must be outside direct line of site to the burst point (could be several thousand feet in the air at detonation for optimum blast effect on light construction). This means shadowed by a structure or outside the area of direct illumination 100+ miles away.
    Since radiant energy is attenuated by the atmosphere absorption limits the range to dangerous illumination levels to much less than the direct line of sight distance.

    For first degree burns (like sunburn)
    100 kt warhead that distance = 4.6 miles from GZ (ground zero)
    250 kt warhead that distance = 6.6 miles from GZ
    550 kt warhead that distance = 9.0 miles from GZ

    (at 60 miles a 1 Mt burst is something like 10x brighter than the noon day sun with a flash duration of about 9 seconds and peak illumination at 0.8 seconds after burst. This means the flash is bright enough to dazzle or flash blind even through closed eyelids at 10’s of miles from the burst point.)

    yield _ _ _ _ _ _ _  Flash duration  _ _ _ _ time of peak illumination
    100 kt - - - - - - - -  3.5 sec  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.30 sec
    250 kt - - - - - - - -  5.0 sec  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.45 sec  
    550 kt - - - - - - - -  7.2 sec  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.64 sec

    Air Blast optimum burst height for light construction
    2 psi = light damage [windows broken, doors buckled or blown in, light damage to interior walls ]
    3 psi = severe damage to residential construction but the structure is still mostly standing and may be usable for emergency shelter with repairs and augmentation.
    5 psi = residential structures effectively destroyed only piles of rubble or gutted core structure still standing – building effectively shattered and most contents distributed down wind.

    Air blast effects for common missile warhead yields
    yield _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2psi _ _ _ _ _ _ 3 psi _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 5 psi
    100 kt - - - - - - - -  3.6 mi - - - - - - 2.9 mi - - - - - - - -  2.0 mi
    250 kt - - - - - - - -  5.0 mi - - - - - - 3.8 mi - - - - - - - -  2.7 mi
    550 kt - - - - - - - -  6.5 mi - - - - - - 5.0 mi - - - - - - - -  3.5 mi

    As you can see above the thermal flash will be the longer distance hazard for common weapon yields for immediate injury.

    Third you have to worry about nuclear radiation both prompt radiation pulse at the time of burst and delayed fallout radiation spreading down wind.

    For acute prompt radiation exposure of 100 REM (no detectable blood changes and illness)
    100 kt = 1.3 miles
    250 kt = 1.5 miles
    550 kt = 2.0 miles

    As you can see prompt radiation is not a problem compared to residential construction for all but the smallest yield weapons. For most common weapon yields used on ICBM or SLBM delivery systems the injury risk from physical damage extends farther than the prompt radiation risk.

    For fallout (assuming a ground burst or low air burst which produces immediate fallout), the highest doses will occur near 30 miles down wind in an ellipse about 10 miles wide and 20-30 miles long. With westerly prevailing winds in most of the US this means 30 miles down wind to the east is bad place to be for fallout avoidance.

    Fallout would begin about 1 hour after detonation, and you will be able to see the fallout coming down (looks something like a rain squall) so best practice is to move slightly upwind and at right angles to the prevailing wind if closer than 30 miles from the burst point and at right angles to the prevailing wind if 40+ miles down wind.

  30. E.M.Smith says:


    It is a generally little used back road to a small quasi hidden reservoir. We are already away from the city centers on the way to “irrelevant rural”. No freeway required. Many parallel streets for the suburbs parts (5 minutes worth, so bugging out while others are doing WTF? Works. ) then you are winding between hills so mostly shielded for 5 minutes, then 10 to 15 minutes heavily blocked by hills with “put car in depression” areas if a flash happens behind you. Inside an hour, at windward coastal area so no fallout risk.

    With current added housing and traffic, likely marginal. In the ’80s we did practice runs where a 15 to 20 minute warning OR a small sub nuke on Moffett gave enough warning if you just bugged out. Then, kits lived in cars. (Mostly for quakes, but good for all uses.) Only rule was “Don’t wait for folks to assemble. Immediately get everyone there in the car and moving.” That got you past the suburbs part and ahead of the mob while they were still confused. My path from Apple (where I worked then) was less likely to work… P3 Orions flew overhead on final and takeoff some times…. but I was about 2 minutes from hills behind Cupertino then backroad to coast…and eventusl rendezvous spot. IFF warning was not a sub hitting Moffett, I could make it. (I was driving a 4×4 International Harvester Scout Diesel then…and could crawl of lots of debris if needed. And it needed no electrical system to run once started.)


    The B52 nuke base was Beal AFB near my old home town. Not where I live now. Not much south of here until Vandenberg several hundred miles south.

    From up near Oroville, there wasn’t much need to go anywhere. We were mostly at risk for Beal fallout but only if wind was unusually from the south. IFF bugout was needed, it was to the north west through the small farm town on back roads into the coastal range. No targets upwind and far from anything big, with lots of fish, game, and woods.

    Now, here in silicon valley, the major target would be the Lockheed Blue Cube that handles space vehicles and communications. Just next to the old Moffett Field. Not sure anyone would waste a nuke on it. Better targeting, either for limited N.K. shots or for a megaboomer Russian nuke, would be air burst about 3000 ft on the peninsula in South San Francisco. Iconic destruction, wipes out shipping in the bay and major airports, gets the most of the elite wealthy leadership, takes out a financial center…

    So given that, I’m hoping silicon valley is a secondary strike with a bit more time… Nukes are usually sent time offset to avoid fratricide from the first to detonate frying the one just 20 miles away… Now that Moffett is retired, it just isn’t on the subs targetting lust anymore.

    So the question is: Does the reduction of military targets here offset the increased housing and traffic on the bugout route?

    I’m not real worried ss I don’t see anything happening here in the next couple of years. N.K. would lob their one or two devices at Gusm, Hawaii, and D.C. depending on ability. Russia isn’t a threat anymore, having more interest in making money. China is busy buying the place.

  31. E.M.Smith says:


    Ah, yes. Remember them well. Where we live, as long as not outside looking north at the time of the blast, risk is low, we get 1 to 2 psi, are outside the prompt zone, and have intact structures and roads. As long as it is under a 1/2 to one MT blast. At the 1 MT range, blindness is possible if near windows or outdoors. Biggest risk was flying glass and second was flash blindness.

    Based on Moffett as target, though. If downtown San Jose, it is more like 2 to 3 psi. But there isn’t any reason to nuke San Jose. It just isn’t important enough to be a primary. S.F. and port of Oakland get more high value targets and mass casualties, then fallout gets San Jose “for free” if you just wait a couple of hours…

    Things I considered 32? years ago when buying here…

  32. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting little video clip showing how audio can be manipulated with available software to change the meaning of sentences. Think of this as photoshop for audio.


  33. David A says:

    Larry, thank you for that information. It is interesting to note that 1 MT is small compared to what has been done and could be done. ” Tsar Bomba (RDS-220 hydrogen bomb) – 50Mt. The RDS-220 hydrogen bomb, also known as the Tsar Bomba” was of course tested, and it pretty much devastated all construction in a 35 mile radius. Also it had been purposely reduced from 100 MT!
    Pretty much complete destruction of any city in the world.

    I do not know what the limit really is.

  34. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A:

    The upper bound on nuclear explosions is a galaxy scale super duper nova.

    The practical limit on human produced bombs is, in fact, just about 50 MT. You can make them bigger, but the damage stays about the same…. Anything over 50 MT just blows a hole in the atmosphere and vents more power out to space.

    A grid of smaller bombs does more damage than a single bomb of the same kT / mT rating. This encourages spreading your limited SNM Special Nuclear Material into more smaller bombs. The damage per $ improves a lot.

    So that’s why I’m not worried about the blast radius / damage range of a 50 Mt. Nobody wants to use them for very logical reasons.

    But, nothing prevents you from putting a 1 MT in the center of a ship, filling the rest with U or Th ore, and floating it out to sea somewhere to blow it off. Water and steel make good neutron reflectors, so lots of neutrons would make multiple passes through the SNM. Absolute yield limited by tonnage of ore, level of contaminants, and exact ore type. But it would be very large… (Refined U Oxide or Th Ox ought to work rather well… For even more boom, first reduce the ore to U metal, then fill the ship…

  35. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yes the reason modern missiles typically have smaller yields in the 110 kt range up to 250 kt range is that for most targets that is the most efficient yield in terms of damage caused by a given amount of very expensive SNM. They have CEP (circular error probable) on the order of 10’s of meters mean they are sure to get the warhead on target for even hard targets if no other errors crop up (failure to launch, failure to reach trajectory, failure of the warhead to properly separate and stabilize etc.) Add to that multiple warheads also provide limited protection against a dud. If you put all your marbles in a 25 mt warhead like the soviets used to do when they had crappy guidance systems and only a 60% chance of it actually getting to target due to all the accumulated failure modes you could have a lot of failures to kill important targets. So they targeted entire metro areas with large warheads. As their guidance systems improved like the US they gradually down sized their warheads to get better probability of delivery and kill of the target.

    Modern missiles like Russia, the US, and China have, manage enough guidance accuracy to get the warhead on target (+/- 30 meters or so) and probability of delivery up in the mid 80% to low 90% range even in wartime short notice launch. (in a true wartime launch a certain percentage of missiles will be down for maintenance or out of service for various reasons, also some will not properly spin up guidance or clear the silo or launch system successfully, or have electronic failures due to no extensive pre-launch testing like happens in test shots). That means for very high priority targets they still need to deliver 2 or more warheads to achieve >98% probability of kill. If you absolutely positively need to kill a very hard command and control center you might hit it with 3 or more warheads spaced out over 20 – 30 minutes to avoid fratricide between the arriving warheads. (ie first detonation does not damage the #2 warhead as it is inbound)

    Crude unreliable missiles like the early soviet systems (and current N Korean systems) demand large yield warheads and large soft targets like entire cities (or applications which are not position critical like high altitude EMP burst where it does not matter if you miss the intended burst point by 20-50 miles laterally and a few tens of thousand feet altitude.

    It is all just a big probability and game theory problem when it comes to determining yield and targeting of weapons. A given yield has to strike within a certain radius to reliably kill a target of a given hardness. Once you get to very low CEP guidance and delivery systems, high yield becomes wasted effort/resources when a low yield device will kill even a 1000 psi hardened facility if it lands within a few 10’s of meters of the intended burst point.

  36. Larry Ledwick says:

    Item on arctic ice which does not appear to be paying attention to the models or the pundits of AGW.


  37. Larry Ledwick says:

    How do average Europeans feel about Muslim immigration.

  38. catweazle666 says:

    “How do average Europeans feel about Muslim immigration.”

    Very unhappy.

  39. J Martin says:

    @ Galloping camel.

    A school in Florida dumps common core and rises straight to the top of the performance table.


  40. J Martin says:

    North Korea can’t have many warheads and could not hope to destroy many US cities. If they plan a strike on the US they will surely try for an EMP. Especially since the US has ended it’s committee examining how to harden the US infrastructure against such an event.

    The consequences of a successful EMP could lead to a dramatically higher death toll than a direct strike on any US city.

    A Carrington repeat or larger could have quite an impact. The US and other countries ought to be examining ways to harden their infrastructure and put in place plans to provide food and water to affected populations. But they have their heads in the sand.

  41. J Martin says:

    What we need is a moderate Carrington event that has sufficient impact to wake up to the potential impact of an EMP or large scale Carrington.

  42. jim2 says:

    “Dell also sells laptops with Intel Management Engine disabled”


  43. Larry Ledwick says:

    This implies things are about to get very interesting in higher levels of Government.
    If true this could also completely reconfigure the outcomes folks are expecting from recent “known” investigations.


  44. E.M.Smith says:


    Disabled is nice, but that then just begs the question “What does it take to re-enable it remotely?”… I’d rather have it gone from my machines…


    Well, “soon” can have a long time to it ;-)

    It will either be a big nothing, or a DC Meltdown. No way to know ’till the box is opened.

    @J. Marin:

    My spouse was ecstatic at that article! Here’s hoping an excellent example of one can be replicated far and wide…

  45. Here’s something to ponder…. Venzuela is proposing to issue digital coins in competition with Bitcoin. See http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-42217798 . What a prat!

  46. E.M.Smith says:

    Yeah… my “complaint” about all digital curencies. Anyone can issue one. There is no controlling authority and no “central bank” to manage exchange rates and things like fractional reserve banking. Yes, in theory, the block chain forbids fractional reserves, but then again, that depends on the design that depends on the issuer…

  47. pouncer says:


    So, let’s assume a metallic asteroid is captured, moved to low Earth orbit, mined, and the metals delivered (safely) to customers on the surface. The assumption implies the capture, move, and mining are done affordably. Lots of iron, nickle and cobalt … let alone gold and silver.

    The astronomers, who are not economists, claim the abundance would crash the economy.

    But really?

  48. jim2 says:

    Drop the asteroid on Musk’s head to see if it will bounce. :)

  49. E.M.Smith says:


    The short answer is “No.”

    The longer answer is that it would crash the iron and nickle mining and refining industries, but help industries using those metals.

    It’s all just a big News Hype Story.

    In reality, smaller asteroids will be harvested first. Easier to shape into lifting body shapes on orbit. Then de-orbited into shallow water in an uninhabited place like off the coast of Namibia… Each one sized for about a year worth of steel / stainless steel demand…

    Similarly the very high platinum group asteroids…

    As a comparison:

    My Raspberry Pi is about the same compute power as the Cray I managed decades back. That cray ( 4 “core”) sold time for a bit over $1000 / CPU hour (or $4000 / machine hour). Now, despite the price of computes crashing from $4000 / hour to, essentially free ( $40 / 5 year life x hours/yr); the world economy has not crashed in sympathy…

    Other examples:

    Sapphire and Ruby were once extremely valuable and rare. We can now make them by the pound on demand. Even diamonds. Didn’t crash the world economy…

  50. Pingback: W.O.O.D. – 5 Dec 2017 | Musings from the Chiefio

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