I’ll add some charts later.
Right now, just a note that the price recovery in the stock markets has “paused” at the Simple Moving Average stack.
This is a “battle ground” behaviour as the longs and shorts fight for dominance.
At present, it looks like no upside “punch through” happening, and that typically means a “fall away” to the downside.
We’re at least 3 days into it, which is a bit odd (though not unheard of). Usually a ‘punch through’ happens fast at the pause at the SMA stack (sometimes only one day); it is usually just a couple of daily ticks before it falls again if going down. Then again, we had a holiday and they change how folks behave (major money players will sometimes be taking extra days off and delaying their participation).
So at this point, it is looking more like a failed recovery at the SMA stack, but the indicators are a bit mixed still. Any major drop day will be confirmation of the failed recovery. Only a hot streak up through the SMA stack will mean a return to the bull run market.
IMHO, it’s about 60% odds of a return to the downside, and 40% odds of an upside breakout. Every day spent stuck here or dropping increases the odds of a renewed drop. Only a clear break above the SMA stack will mean a return to the rising market and further bull market action.