“Not Even Hurricane Season” Bogus News

Can’t turn on the news this morning without some idiot with a microphone on Major News decrying the horrors of a Tropical Storm, “The first named storm” and then inevitably saying “And it is not even hurricane season!!!” as though our calendar decisions controlled what nature sees as normal. (Or worse, implying this is an abnormal storm due to something we’ve done to offend Gaia…)

What they miss is that Tropical Storms can, and do, form in Every Single Month. All that changes is the rate.

Now the first thing to point out is this is May 27th and the nominal start of “hurricane season” is June 1. That’s all of 5 whole days away. Oh, the Horrors!!! Nature not paying attention to the first day of June by 0.014 of a year! 1/73 of a year of imprecision from a chaotic stochastic natural process subject to large natural variations.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E17.html


Total and Average Number of Tropical Cylones by Month
(1851-2015)
Month 	       Tropical Storms 	Hurricanes 	U.S. Landfalling
                                                Hurricanes
                Total	Average	Total	Average	Total	Average
JANUARY	          3	*	2	*	0	*
FEBRUARY	  1	*	0	*	0	*
MARCH	          1	*	1	*	0	*
APRIL	          1	*	0	*	0	*
MAY	         22	0.1	4	*	0	*
JUNE	         90	0.5	33	0.2	19	0.12
JULY	        118	0.7	55	0.3	25	0.15
AUGUST 	        383	2.3	241	1.5	78	0.48
SEPTEMBER	578	3.5	398	2.4	107	0.67
OCTOBER	338	2.0	203	1.2	54	0.33
NOVEMBER	 90	0.5	59	0.3	5	0.03
DECEMBER	 17	0.1	6	*	0	*
YEAR	       1619	9.9	991	6.0	284	1.73
* Less than 0.05.
Excludes subtropical storms

Last Revised: June 1, 2016 

So not only have there been 22 Tropical Storms in May, but also 4 full on hurricanes (though none of them made landfall as a hurricane in the USA).

But wait! There have been 2 Hurricanes in January and one in March! 6 in December (that is also outside of “hurricane season”…)

So much hype over nothing.

Yes, it is a storm. Yes, it will mess up a lot of holiday plans. No, it isn’t at all unusual. Folks who live down there know it (one guy when asked “The Stupid Question” by a propagandist with a microphone answered “Nature doesn’t follow our calendar” and moved on…) The only “hurricane season” is our artificial creation that says when they are most likely to make landfall, created to ‘raise awareness’. Not to limit hurricanes.

And the news wonders why we no longer trust them to tell the truth… Because when they are not “lying for effect” they are often wrong and frequently ignorant. Don’t give me emotional hype, just get your facts straight. Do that consistently for a few years, you might even get some credibility back.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in AGW and Weather News Events, Earth Sciences and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

24 Responses to “Not Even Hurricane Season” Bogus News

  1. ossqss says:

    I don’t don’t believe it met required warm core storm criteria for the classification until late last night. The unbiased take from Cranky is always on target.

    http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e052618d.htm

    Here is current live hurricane hunter recon.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

  2. Gary says:

    Journalism students are lucky to get exposure to science and history subjects in college; competency in understanding them is out of the question.

  3. ossqss says:

    Here is a great view from one of our newer Satellites. Click play under the image to animate it. I hope it works ;-) Dry air incursion, colder SST’s and the ULL are beating Alberto up.

    http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

  4. u.k.(us) says:

    You had me going for a minute there, then came all the math and charts and stuff….
    …..I think I’ll just wait for CNN to explain it to me.

  5. cdquarles says:

    It is a subtropical system, first of all; and June 1st being the start of the *Atlantic* season is just an arbitrary one. NB that the Eastern Pacific season begins May 15th.

    Weather is a damped-driven system. It is that which makes it mathematically chaotic (doesn’t mean “random”, just means it is determined and we don’t know all of the ‘determining’ conditions). Add in that weather phenomena have thresholds adds to the complexity.

  6. cdquarles says:

    Oh, I’m pretty sure that the skin temperatures in the Gulf all exceed 25C/77F. At depth, I don’t know; and even if they do at depth, just how “deep” is the depth? /rhetorical

  7. Chris in Calgary says:

    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
    — H. L. Mencken

    I notice the Wiki page says “Within the North Atlantic Ocean, tropical or subtropical cyclones are named by the National Hurricane Center (NHC/RSMC Miami) when they are judged to have intensified into a tropical storm with winds of at least 34 kn (39 mph; 63 km/h).”
    (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_naming)

    So any storm with winds of 39 mph is named. As far as windspeeds go, that’s peanuts.
    “Damaging winds are classified as those exceeding 50-60 mph.” (https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/wind/)

    So storms qualify for naming before they reach the point of having damaging winds. Imaginary hobgoblin. ‘Nuff said.

  8. John F. Hultquist says:

    Here (near Ellensburg WA) we have had several days of gusts to 46 mph.
    Wind towers on the ridges were shut down. That is at 56 mph, I think.
    We don’t bother with names.

  9. ossqss says:

    Here ya go CD. This storm will probably not contribute to the ACE numbers yet as it is indeed still somewhat a hybrid.

  10. ossqss says:

    We hit the dry slot here at SRQ today and had a great outdoor party. We got lucky from the dynamics associated with this system. I will take it with no complaints!

    Sorry to see what happened in Maryland again today. 2016 training storms again sucks.

  11. corsair red says:

    @Chris in Calgary,
    Jokes are made about those of us in Florida being blase about hurricanes, but this 39 mph wind of Alberto, with gusts to 45, is a joke. Here in NW FL we turn off the forecasts and warnings if that is all a storm can manage. 3 to 5 inches of rain in 24 hours doesn’t even leave my yard wet more than two days, if we have sunshine the rest of the week. That isn’t the forecast this week, but next week no one will care.

    Why do storms have names? What is wrong with numbers? Storm 3 doesn’t have the fright value, does it? And why people names? What about hurricane Apple, or Pear?

  12. E.M.Smith says:

    @Corsair Red:

    Most people don’t like numbers. I like them, but my spouse just hears “Blah blah blah BLAh balh”. So names are easier to remember for folks like her (though numbers work better for me for ordering things…) Why people? Well, started as women, so might have been a jab at women ‘storming in’ as a speculation…

    Personally, I’d love a Hurricane Aardvark or Tropical Storm Field Mouse ;-)

    My Florida Friend just tosses the pool furniture in the pool and pulls the garbage cans and BBQ into the garage when its a Tropical Storm. Checks the stock level in the Beer Fridge in the garage and makes an emergency ABC Run if it’s too low. Goes swimming to retrieve the furniture when it’s over ;-) Says it is easier to find them that way. He’s a Florida Native ;-)

  13. Chris in Calgary says:

    @E.M.Smith:

    ROTFL. I can just see the headlines. Field Mouse devastates Miami

    @corsair red:

    Apple might get the NHC sued by Tim Cook et al.. How about animal names, like Fido, Rover, or Flossie?

    People names can be dangerous, even common ones. I don’t think the powers-that-be would dare to name a hurricane “Mohammed”, for example.

  14. corsair red says:

    @E.M.Smith,
    ” I went through No. 6 back in 2019, ” just doesn’t impress like ” I lived in Houston when Harvey hit in 2017, ” does it?

    Tropical Storm Field Mouse has a nice roll to it when I say it. It doesn’t suggest emergency at all. :-)
    I’m not sure why, but it makes me think it’s a German rank. ” Tropical Storm Feldmaus is in charge of the operation. ”

    Your friend has the right attitude.

  15. E.M.Smith says:

    @Corsair red:

    Yes “Harvey in 2017” has more ‘punch’.. but I really like the potential of animal names…

    “Reporting from Georgia where Beaver just took out the woods…”
    “Reporting from New Orleans where in a dramatic reversal, Sheep just sheared the place”
    “In North Carolina, Bear just shit in the forest… ” while in New York “Mackerel has made a stink here!”

    In other news, “Tropical Storm Otter is just playing off shore of Delaware… ”

    I tell ya’, they are missing out on some good stuff there!

    ]-)

  16. corsair red says:

    @E.M.Smith :
    I love it! ” After being quiet in the Atlantic for a week, Possum ran into Hampton Roads.”

    @Chris in Calgary :
    Apple was the first thing to come to mind. How about Hurricane Persimmon? That could leave a bad taste. For a Cat 4, there is always Hurricane Grapes of Wrath. For something pathetic like this Alberto, there could be Grapes of Wraith. Hurricane Avocado?

  17. E.M.Smith says:

    As Hurricane Avocado has weakened, it has become Tropical Storm Guacamole … ;-)

    Just finished Memorial Day BBQ. Lamb chops from the propane grill, mashed potatoes cooked in a small pressure cooker on the Coleman unleaded gasoline stove next to it, and then yellow squash sauteed in 50/50 olive oil / butter as the vegetable… (look, just ’cause it’s dripping in butter doesn’t mean it’s just a sponge for butter, OK? Besides, some of it is Olive Oil so it’s healthy….)

    Only Politically Driven Electricity used was for the electric blender to “mash” the spuds.

    I’m sure I generated LOTS of CO2, and some particulates (especially as some of the last BBQ smoked off the grill with a run on high to get it ready ;-) but hey, anything “For the planet”. Feeding trees and all. I’m sure the PC Police would be horrified that I was not using solar power at the time when they have too much of it, but “not my problem”… At 39 ¢ / kW-hr they have priced themselves out of the cooking market. Still reasonable for lighting, sort of… and small motors like the blender. Didn’t need to run the A/C though. “Global Warming” managed to make it all the way up to “warm, not bad”… ;-)

  18. David A says:

    We can’t call them animals! That is so insensitive to storms. Of course hurricane Stormy, or tropical storm Stormy, might be hip this year.

    In a less sensitive time it was cool to be one of the animals. Now we are misunderstood.
    ( 10 points to the first one to get it)

  19. David A says:

    MS 13 crew asking to be understood…

  20. corsair red says:

    @David A:
    Hurricane Stormy is proving to be a tempest in a double D cup.

    The Animals reference; thumbs up.

  21. philjourdan says:

    I do not ever recall a hurricane in January. Yet it says there have been some. So not in the past 60 years. Yet there are 3. Makes them a lot more frequent before 1960.

    Mother earth can do a lot of things. But she still has not learned how to read a homosapien calendar yet.

  22. philjourdan says:

    @Chris in Calgary – “So any storm with winds of 39 mph is named.”

    ANY storm is named these days. But does anyone seriously pay attention to the snow storms? I do not recall the names, just the timing of the bad ones. And I have not seen many using the names of “Umberto” to describe the valentine’s day storm of 15. (I have no idea what it was called – only that it delayed my trip to California by 3 days).

  23. philjourdan says:

    @E.M.Smith:

    ROTFL. I can just see the headlines. Field Mouse devastates Miami

    Actually not far from reality. The most devastating tank of WWII was called “the Mouse”. fortunately, very few were made as it was made at the end of the war (and of course was German – Maus).

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