Having pondered ways to test the hypothesis that there has been some “Global Warming” over the decades, and do it without too much mathematical mumbo jumbo (i.e. error prone complexity), I’ve had a little idea come into my brain…
IF CO2 is slowing heat loss, then we ought to be able to measure that in Degrees Cooling / Hour during the normal daily drop from max to low of the day.
If solar driven, it would tend to show up in degrees warming / hour during daylight hours.
So why not take the daily data (what there is of it) and find a few places where the environment has not changed much. Then, for each of them, calculate the rate of change from bottom to top and then the rate of change from top to bottom. Compare the same days of the year, across years. See what is the normal range and see if there is any visible change over the decades.
Basically, if the stations at some remote Pacific Island, some remote Atlantic Island, rural India, some place in Canadian forests, and a spot in the Andes are all showing the same rate of cooling at night as they ever did, then there is nothing slowing heat loss. OTOH, if you take a station in clear dry rural Arizona and it has gone from 5 F / hour cooling rate on desert nights to 4 F / hour; it’s pretty clear something has changed.
What do you think?
So, think that has any hope of working? Is there enough data from the right places? IF there is not enough daily data, could the monthly High Low averages be used, or does the loss of timing and detail information hobble it?
Kick it around. Toss rocks. I have some enthusiasm for the idea, but don’t want to sink a few months into chasing something that in the end can be shown never to work via some simple observation I’ve missed… I know level of cloudiness will matter and we have terrible data for that, which is why I was thinking places where clouds are either absent (deserts, selected parts of some islands) or relatively constant (some cloudy northern places or islands that are where it always rains…) might work best.
Also, if someone has already done this, it would be nice to hear it now rather than when writing up months of work and be told “Oh, John Foober did that, but better, here’s a link”…