This is another of the W.O.O.D. series of semi-regular
Weekly Occasional Open Discussions.
(i.e. if I forget and skip one, no big)
Immediate prior one here:
and remains open for threads running there
(at least until the ‘several month’ auto-close of comments on stale threads).
Canonical list of old ones here:
So use “Tips” for “Oooh, look at the interesting ponder thing!”
and “W.O.O.D” for “Did you see what just happened?! What did you think about it?”
What’s Going On?
The Kavanaugh is on the Supreme Court. Now the entire Deep State & Democratic strategy is to take back the House and work on impeachment of Trump and some way to undo Kavanaugh – though I find it hard to think of a “how” since anything they tried would go to the Supreme Court and I think even the Progressives on the Supreme Court would take a dim view of reversing an approved appointment without some finding of real criminality provable in, well, the court. Kavanaugh needs to avoid hunting cabins and road trips for a few years…
Watch the Democrats attempt to run a full on smear campaign against both Trump and Kavanaugh as a way to get out their voters. Republicans need to match their “ground game” with an effective get out the vote process of their own. I hope Team Trump have a bunch of arrests queued up for an October Surprise…next week would be nice. Just a few weeks until it’s all over but the crying. That will dominate the next few weeks. The result will dominate the next few years.
Hurricane Michael is now history, watch for the recovery to be pilloried as a failure no matter now well it’s done.
The markets took a dive last week. Monday, IMHO, will be the “tell”. Is it more massive shorting and continued down? Fed rate hikes rule. Is it back up to the SMA Simple Moving Average Stack and then through it? Normal “correction” and Trumps economy rules. I’m expecting lots of downward pressure from very rich Leftists trying to ruin the market run just in time for the election. There will also be lots of talk about how it’s all Trump’s fault due to the tariffs. That’s wrong, but it is the strategy that will be used by the Dems and the media. Let’s hope it has not been so politicized too…
Excessive snow and cold are all over the West, Canada and Russia. This will be hard to hide, but also hard to demonstrate effectively to the masses. Iceage Now has a pretty good list of cold events up at the moment. Commenters there are worried about grain shortages from lack of ability to harvest in time, yet watching a farm economy show had prices stable to low and no talk of supply shortages. Someone is wrong but I’m not sure which one yet.
Says some damage, but not much:
USDA: Weather Damaged Soybeans Eligible For Crop Insurance Claims
10/12/2018 03:44 PM
WASDE: Season-Average Prices Unchanged
10/11/2018 11:26 AM
Crop Production: Corn, Soybeans, Production Down Slightly
10/11/2018 11:26 AM
Quarterly Grain Stocks: Corn Stocks Down 7%, Soybean Up 45%
09/28/2018 11:05 AM
Crop Progress: North Carolina Farmers Did Their Best
09/24/2018 05:11 PM
USDA Invests More Than $100 Million In Specialty Crop Market
09/19/2018 04:08 PM
Farmers Double Five-Year Soybean Harvest Average
09/17/2018 04:07 PM
One Farmer’s Experience Applying For Tariff Aid
09/14/2018 04:27 PM
Farmers Share Their Thoughts On Tariff Aid
09/14/2018 03:46 PM
Farmer Wins Case After Losing $2.2 Million of Chickens to Bald Eagles
09/13/2018 04:06 PM
So looking down that list of articles, there’s some reductions “Corn, Soybeans, Production Down Slightly” does not get me excited; but also a lot more soybeans held in stocks. I’m just not seeing a reason to get excited about it. The article about a Farmer wining a case about bald eagles looks interesting and I’m going to read it right after posting this ;-) If folks can start holding the EPA & Government responsible for their economic losses from stupid policies, that would go a long way to fixing things.
On the Roku, the FRTV (Farm TV) channel was saying they were running about 10 days late on wheat ripening, in Ohio I think, but they thought the harvest would be fine.
IMHO, if colder seasons have onset over a few years, farmers will be plenty able to adjust when and what they plant and grow. Worst case would be too much rain and mud mixed with rapid swings of temperature in a “loopy jet stream” regimen. Even then, sturdy grains that can take water variation and don’t lodge much, like sorghum, can be used instead of corn – especially in dry places; while faster grains that are more cold tolerant can be used instead of wheat. Grains like barley. More beer, less bread? I can live with that ;-)
In Texas they already decide, season by season, about the corn vs sorghum choice based on the expected rains each year (where corn is sporadic or marginal) so that margin will just move over time. Similarly where corn marched north in the last few decades, it can march back south. I remember in the late ’70s being in Indiana where farmers were talking about planting corn further north than it had been grown prior (shorter season varieties and warming out of the early 70s cold). Farmers know how to do this. They did it after the Great Pacific Shift of the mid 70s to the warm side, then can revert to the pattern of the 50s and 60s just as readily.
I know “fear sells” and you see lots of Horror movies but hardly any “Nothing much will happen” movies – so I’ll never get rich that way… but I just don’t see any reason to panic over a bit of cold coming earlier. Guess I’m a lousy fear merchant.