The Climate Criers are wetting their pants about Barley and Beer now.
Note this is from 2009. The point being the current “news” of barley and beer is a recycle of one they ran 9 years ago.
http://planetsave.com/2009/01/15/the-latest-victim-of-global-warming-beer/
Colleges have always been a primary point of rally for green initiatives. Now, a threat to malting barley has created a new call for support as the price and availability of beer is being threatened by climate change according to a study conducted and released in 2008.
The potential for the alcohol industry to be effected by climate change has been a concern for some time, but it is hitting a feverish pitch and garnering support and calls to action from campuses across the country. In Lawrence, Kansas, Greenpeace volunteers held a recruitment event called “Save the Ales” earlier this week to tackle how global warming effects college drinking.
“It’s not really about the beer,” John Gawin, Greenpeace intern, said. “It just shows you how climate change can effect even small things.”
Here’s a link to Nature for 2018 doing that recycling.
Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat
Wei Xie, Wei Xiong, Jie Pan, Tariq Ali, Qi Cui, Dabo Guan, Jing Meng, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Erda Lin & Steven J. Davis
Nature Plants (2018)
Abstract
Beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage in the world by volume consumed, and yields of its main ingredient, barley, decline sharply in periods of extreme drought and heat. Although the frequency and severity of drought and heat extremes increase substantially in range of future climate scenarios by five Earth System Models, the vulnerability of beer supply to such extremes has never been assessed. We couple a process-based crop model (decision support system for agrotechnology transfer) and a global economic model (Global Trade Analysis Project model) to evaluate the effects of concurrent drought and heat extremes projected under a range of future climate scenarios. We find that these extreme events may cause substantial decreases in barley yields worldwide. Average yield losses range from 3% to 17% depending on the severity of the conditions. Decreases in the global supply of barley lead to proportionally larger decreases in barley used to make beer and ultimately result in dramatic regional decreases in beer consumption (for example, −32% in Argentina) and increases in beer prices (for example, +193% in Ireland). Although not the most concerning impact of future climate change, climate-related weather extremes may threaten the availability and economic accessibility of beer.
So I guess we’ll all just have to give up and swap to Bourbon made from corn that grows in hot places like Iowa… After all, Barley couldn’t possibly grow in places that get as hot as Arizona, our future and destiny temperature (per the wet pants brigade) right?
Oh, wait:
https://www.westernfarmpress.com/wheat/arizona-durum-wheat-production-down-barley-year
Arizona Durum wheat production down, barley up this year
2017 Arizona Durum wheat yields average 97 bushels/acre; barley yield at 125 bushels/acreLooking at barley, NASS estimates 2017 Arizona production at 2.38 million bushels, 24 percent higher than the 2016 crop. Total barley state acreage harvested is forecast at 19,000 acres, up 4,000 acres from the 15,000 acres harvested last year.
The average 2017 Arizona barley yield is forecast at 125.0 bushels per acre, or 3.0 bushels per acre less than last year. As of July 2, Arizona barley growers had harvested 87 percent of their barley crop, compared with 73 percent last year.
Oh, never mind… Looks like you can grow barley in Arizona, and lots of it. They expanded planting into some areas that had not been in production before, so bu/acre went down, but the total crop went up a lot. Bu/acre 28% higher than wheat too.
So I guess we can worry about the beer when ALL of the USA & Canada are hotter and drier than Arizona… Call me when that happens… /sarc;
Oh this is a good one:
http://agriculture.wikia.com/wiki/Barley_production_in_the_United_States
Yield / area (in Kilos / hectare) rising steadily from 1648 in 1961 up to 3857 in 2013.
But wait, weren’t we supposedly going form near ideal to horribly burning up during that time?
Barley production in the United States Year Production (tonnes) Area (ha) Yield (kilos/ha) Seed (tonnes) Notes 2013 4,682,735 1,214,058 3,857 140,000 [1] 2012 4,796,081 1,312,801 3,653 140,000 [1] 2011 3,391,710 906,100 3,743 130,365 [1] 2010 3,924,870 997,560 3,934 104,288 [1] 2009 4,949,370 1,259,800 3,928 108,751 [1] 2008 5,229,590 1,529,324 3,419 128,019 [1] 2007 4,574,520 1,417,224 3,227 152,426 [1] 2006 3,922,552 1,194,240 3,284 143,020 [1] 2005 4,613,400 1,322,930 3,487 124,536 [1] 2004 6,090,565 1,627,260 3,742 139,300 [1] 2003 6,058,777 1,912,970 3,167 161,900 [1] 2002 4,940,197 1,668,537 2,960 188,900 [1] 2001 5,406,619 1,729,240 3,126 181,100 [1] 2000 6,919,229 2,104,388 3,288 178,534 [1] 1999 6,103,000 1,916,000 3,185 217,700 [1] 1998 7,666,600 2,373,000 3,230 195,900 [1] 1997 7,835,000 2,508,000 3,124 217,700 [1] 1996 8,544,000 2,714,000 3,148 241,700 [1] 1995 7,824,000 2,541,000 3,079 256,900 [1] 1994 8,161,000 2,698,100 3,024 241,700 [1] 1993 8,666,000 2,732,900 3,171 257,000 [1] 1992 9,908,000 2,948,200 3,360 285,000 [1] 1991 10,109,000 3,405,000 2,968 281,000 [1] 1990 9,192,000 3,047,000 3,016 314,000 [1] 1989 8,800,000 3,364,000 2,615 293,900 [1] 1988 6,314,000 3,090,000 2,043 326,600 [1] 1987 11,354,300 4,029,500 2,817 341,800 [1] 1986 13,249,000 4,846,000 2,734 389,700 [1] 1985 12,850,000 4,691,000 2,739 463,700 [1] 1984 13,020,000 4,540,000 2,867 465,000 [1] 1983 11,066,000 3,937,900 2,810 424,500 [1] 1982 11,232,900 3,647,400 3,079 374,500 [1] 1981 10,309,300 3,657,500 2,818 346,200 [1] 1980 7,862,600 2,938,000 2,676 346,200 [1] 1979 8,343,000 3,046,000 2,739 302,600 [1] 1978 9,901,210 3,742,570 2,645 296,100 [1] 1977 9,313,713 3,936,727 2,365 365,800 [1] 1976 8,338,828 3,415,095 2,441 396,250 [1] 1975 8,255,115 3,487,128 2,367 341,800 [1] 1974 6,502,621 3,209,112 2,026 341,800 [1] 1973 9,088,373 4,167,435 2,180 309,200 [1] 1972 9,181,666 3,904,272 2,351 392,000 [1] 1971 10,068,853 4,090,141 2,461 370,000 [1] 1970 9,060,146 3,930,859 2,304 392,000 [1] 1969 9,298,494 3,868,013 2,403 348,000 [1] 1968 9,279,401 3,939,115 2,355 348,000 [1] 1967 8,138,822 3,735,924 2,178 370,000 [1] 1966 8,538,543 4,148,617 2,058 348,000 [1] 1965 8,559,056 3,709,944 2,307 370,000 [1] 1964 8,406,892 4,160,000 2,020 348,000 [1] 1963 8,554,000 4,548,000 1,880 392,000 [1] 1962 9,314,000 4,944,000 1,883 457,000 [1] 1961 8,546,000 5,183,000 1,648 501,000 [1]Looks like the fear of future shortage of barley and price hikes might be realized… because… they over planted and produced way too much in prior years and got burned. Classic ag problem of adjustment cycle out of phase with growing cycle.
https://www.craftbrewingbusiness.com/news/2017-will-see-lowest-u-s-barley-production-record/
So the climate isn’t an issue at all. Just way too much being produced caused everyone to back off production and contracts and take a breath. Typical commodity problem in an era of increasing production / acre. Any small drop in supply leads to a price hike leads to LOTS more production leads to a price drop leads to folks swapping to some other crop…
There’s no shortage of barley. There’s no difficulty growing lots and lots more of it. The only problem is one of overcapacity leading to low prices and folks pulling back supply efforts.
Obviously these people know nothing about beer making. You do not brew good beer out any old Barley.It takes special varieties to make good beer, so the larger brewers forward contract with known growers for their needed production. In times of shortage the cows can eat something else because good beer making barley is far too valuable to feed to cows.Good beer making barley actually requires different climatic conditions then heavy producing feed barley’s so growing Beer making barley’s is a specialty crop…pg
Or at least they thought they did
“Brewers Strike Back at Fake “End of Beer” Climate Change News”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/17/brewers-strike-back-at-fake-end-of-beer-climate-change-news/
IIRC Napoleon was supposed to have said something about enemies and mistakes
@P.G.:
It’s about 1/2 for beer and 1/2 for cattle feed and human food is a trivial amount. My suspicion is that the guys growing under contract ship any sub-par parts of the field off to the cattle market, but that’s just a suspicion. Usually farmers get dinged if the crop sample isn’t up to snuff, so I’d be careful to make sure it was…
The other interesting bit is that the rate of barely planting varies with the contracted amounts. Essentially you can’t look at a drop of production and say anything more than that the brewers didn’t contract for as much.
@Another Ian:
There’s a hidden belief in that referenced article from the WUWT link. That is the belief that Barley does not grow well in warm places. That is just not true.
Barley has the feature that it grows well in cold places (like just above freezing even for starting to sprout – as soon as the snow melts) so most of it is grown in places like Montana and Idaho (and even Alaska). BUT, and it is a very big but… I’ve grown it in my back yard in the California Summer and it loved it. I’d intended to try it as a winter crop, but had some that bugs had gotten into so just scattered it in the garden for “whatever” to eat. Then a bunch of it sprouted and grew…. So essentially Idaho must get warmer than a California Summer before barley “has issues”.
https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/help-barley-growing-degree-days.html
Notice that the growth rate gain is set to limit at 95F. That doesn’t mean the barley stops growing then, only that it doesn’t grow FASTER at 98 F than at 95F.
So once Idaho gets to well over 95 F in the WINTER (otherwise you just shift when you grow it…) then we start to temperature limit the ADDED growth rate from beneficial temperature…
That computer game passing as “science” is just demonstrating how ignorant the authors are about actual plant growth and farming.
Interesting follow-up elsewhere… The ‘study’ was designed with PR in mind, as a way to get attention, thinking that a ‘Beer Threat’ would attract attention to climate change.