Add Brazil To The List Of Going Right

I don’t know why, but Brazil tends to oscillate from relatively far right to relatively far left. They don’t seem to spend a lot of time off axis in the land of libertarian freedom; instead they have had Socialists and Right Wing Dictators and wobble between them. Briefly transiting the middle for a while.

They had some “Golden Years” with a Socialist in power, but who vowed not to touch the economy since it was doing so well (as the prior non-socialist had done the usual things that make a free market work). Then they elected a new socialist who decided it was time to dick with the economy. Well, that didn’t work well. So now they have elected a non-socialist again:

Venezuela’s Opposition Welcome Brazil’s Conservative President-Elect Bolsonaro

Prominent members of the anti-socialist opposition in Venezuela congratulated Brazilian President-elect Jair Bolsonaro on Monday for his election victory this weekend. Bolsonaro made fighting socialism a pillar of his campaign policy, promising to cut financial ties with the dictatorship in Caracas.

A member of the conservative Social Liberal Party (PSL), Bolsonaro repeatedly condemned the socialist Workers’ Party (PT) for using their nearly two decades in power to bring Brazil out of the orbit of the United States and the West and instead strengthen ties to rogue regimes like Cuba and Venezuela.

Several members of Venezuela’s opposition congratulated him on his victory, expressing optimism that a right-leaning Brazil would play a major role in containing the regime of dictator Nicolás Maduro.

There are illustrative stories in the article of the various anti-socialists being beaten and bloodied by the socialists. Gee, where have we seen Socialists being violent and attacking their opponents physically… How about “everywhere”? From German National Socialists of the ’30s and ’40s onward it has been one of their “go to” strategies. Currently on display in the Black Shirt Antifa Gangs.

In live remarks following his election Sunday, Bolsonaro repeatedly emphasized the importance of individual freedom in his campaign. He called his election a “celebration of freedom in Brazil” and defined the word as “a fundamental principle … freedom to come and go, political and religious freedom, freedom of opinion.

Let’s see… who is violently opposed to freedom of opinion in the USA… who is busy trying to de-platform anyone with a “conservative” voice? Hmmm….. Oh, that’s right, the Loony Left (since they know their ideas can’t stand up to criticism they demand there be no critical voices…) I think we’re seeing a pattern here.

Bolsonaro has repeatedly promised to cut financial ties to Venezuela, accusing the PT of funding the humanitarian crisis in the dictatorship by continuing to work with the Maduro regime.

“Venezuelans are dying of hunger because of the tyranny of a government hand-in-hand with the Cuban dictatorship,” Bolsonaro said this month. “Through [the Brazilian Development Bank] and other sources of its money, Brazil is a great patron of the socialism massacring millions around the world. This will change!”

Both Venezuela and Cuba owe Brazil millions in debts taken out through the development bank (BNDES). Experts believe neither country has the capital to currently pay it back. Brazil, meanwhile, is suffering one of the worst economic climates in its history after socialist governments spent billions in public funds on, among other major projects, the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics.

And on it goes.

Well, at least now we know who was propping up Venezuela. Perhaps now there is some hope that the suffering there will end in a final collapse of their end-stage Socialism. (Perhaps it ought to be graded like cancer – Stage 4 Socialism in Venezuela as Brazil recovers from Stage 2 Socialism to be Socialism Free?)

The only part I don’t understand is why the oscillator. I’d think folks would remember what it was like under the prior times they tried a given system and catch some clue. Clearly there is something about the mass of the voting public I just don’t get. Perhaps that whole greed and envy thing…

Well, in any case, Brazil is set for an uptick. I’ll need to start watching EWZ the Brazilian market ETF again. For a few decades back in the 80’s to 90’s it made me a bucket of money. Looks like it popped 3.25% on this news. Down for at least the last decade, it ought to have a lot of upside potential – IF the new President can turn things around at the lower levels…

In this chart, as the USA tickers are rolling over in what looks like a topping action, the Brazil ETF has crashed, done a “dead cat bounce” for about 2 years, and now is showing signs of ready to recover. Notice that as the USA plunged (at the far right) Brazil rises. It is moving counter to the general USA trend. That’s a very nice indication.

EWZ Brazil ETF post election up after a decade of down.

EWZ Brazil ETF post election up after a decade of down.

The indicators are saying it’s starting a new uptrend. I’d only put modest amounts of money into it for now, though. It will take time to get a good long term trend in place.

One could make a decent amount of money just by shorting country stock baskets when they elect Socialists and going long the same ETF when they toss them out and put in place free market advocates. Or perhaps I ought to say “I have made” ;-)

I wish Brazil luck, and I hope this time they notice a pattern…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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4 Responses to Add Brazil To The List Of Going Right

  1. Ron Clutz says:

    An interesting report from a Brazilian journalist (prior to this campaign)

  2. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ron Clutz:

    That’s one very interesting video.

    My spouse and I both taught English as a Second Language classes to Brazilian kids while in Florida. Rich Brazilians would send their kids for the (mandatory) language credits on a several week trip to Disney World. They would be run through a huge gamut of experiences too. So language class from about 8 am to 4 pm, then evenings at Disney, off to Tampa for a Hockey game, Universal Studios, etc. etc. By about the 3rd week, the kids were really dragging ;-) and we would occasionally let them nap in class during “group work” times (like making a poster / presentation). One girl (about 17?) told me they had been up until 2 AM or 3 AM after getting back from the Hockey game that let out about midnight… so maybe had 3 or 4 hours for homework AND sleep and…

    Well, when I taught it (year after the spouse – about 2016) they had opened up their recruiting as there were not enough rich people signing up. The class was about 1/2 The Rich Kids and about 1/2 the “middle class” kids. Oddly, the middle class kids actually cared about learning English where the Rich Kids just were there for the (essentially guaranteed) certificate of completion and the parties…

    That was when it had become clear the Brazilian economy was tanking. Even the rich kids families were ‘cutting back’…

    FWIW, if wondering how the “middle class” families were able to pay the few $Thousand for this junket / class: ALL the kids arrived with nearly empty suitcases. These were filled with USA clothes, a new laptop, a new phone (or two…) and other “trade goods”. As Brazil had very high import duties, and returning from vacation was duty free, they would sell their “haul” when they got home and net a small profit on the whole thing… (The rich kids mostly just bagged the goods for themselves – including one who picked up a Gucci bag and some high end shoes…)

  3. Jim Wood says:

    “Why the oscillator?”
    Not unique to Brazil. We can all ask this question here in Australia. Or in the UK, NZ, Canada, or…? It is a serious and destructive problem that is repeating, apparently endlessly, around the world. It is simply the continuing battle between Good and Evil (or God and Devil) in the hearts of mankind. We have not found the solution in all of recorded history.

  4. Graeme No.3 says:

    The oscillation is a southern hemispheric phenomenon. South Africa’s economy is a mess.
    After years of good governance and booming economy NZ voters elected an inexperienced socialist (well they didn’t actually elect her, there was wheeling and dealing to bypass the incumbent party with the biggest vote).
    And Australia is headed for a Labor victory next year, with a current government with all the appeal of a cold, stale, wet noodle. Labor are sprouting Jeremy Corbyn type doctrine and are as enthusiastic about renewables as Jerry Brown. It seems likely they will control the 4 biggest States as well (the other 2, SA and Tasmania are trying to recover from 16 years each of Labor).
    Disaster is assured, and it will be a race between China and the USA to take control before we are all reduced to eating Cane Toads (one Cane Toad can poison a 5 metre crocodile).

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