I don’t know why, but Brazil tends to oscillate from relatively far right to relatively far left. They don’t seem to spend a lot of time off axis in the land of libertarian freedom; instead they have had Socialists and Right Wing Dictators and wobble between them. Briefly transiting the middle for a while.
They had some “Golden Years” with a Socialist in power, but who vowed not to touch the economy since it was doing so well (as the prior non-socialist had done the usual things that make a free market work). Then they elected a new socialist who decided it was time to dick with the economy. Well, that didn’t work well. So now they have elected a non-socialist again:
Venezuela’s Opposition Welcome Brazil’s Conservative President-Elect Bolsonaro
Prominent members of the anti-socialist opposition in Venezuela congratulated Brazilian President-elect Jair Bolsonaro on Monday for his election victory this weekend. Bolsonaro made fighting socialism a pillar of his campaign policy, promising to cut financial ties with the dictatorship in Caracas.
A member of the conservative Social Liberal Party (PSL), Bolsonaro repeatedly condemned the socialist Workers’ Party (PT) for using their nearly two decades in power to bring Brazil out of the orbit of the United States and the West and instead strengthen ties to rogue regimes like Cuba and Venezuela.
Several members of Venezuela’s opposition congratulated him on his victory, expressing optimism that a right-leaning Brazil would play a major role in containing the regime of dictator Nicolás Maduro.
There are illustrative stories in the article of the various anti-socialists being beaten and bloodied by the socialists. Gee, where have we seen Socialists being violent and attacking their opponents physically… How about “everywhere”? From German National Socialists of the ’30s and ’40s onward it has been one of their “go to” strategies. Currently on display in the Black Shirt Antifa Gangs.
In live remarks following his election Sunday, Bolsonaro repeatedly emphasized the importance of individual freedom in his campaign. He called his election a “celebration of freedom in Brazil” and defined the word as “a fundamental principle … freedom to come and go, political and religious freedom, freedom of opinion.”
Let’s see… who is violently opposed to freedom of opinion in the USA… who is busy trying to de-platform anyone with a “conservative” voice? Hmmm….. Oh, that’s right, the Loony Left (since they know their ideas can’t stand up to criticism they demand there be no critical voices…) I think we’re seeing a pattern here.
Bolsonaro has repeatedly promised to cut financial ties to Venezuela, accusing the PT of funding the humanitarian crisis in the dictatorship by continuing to work with the Maduro regime.
“Venezuelans are dying of hunger because of the tyranny of a government hand-in-hand with the Cuban dictatorship,” Bolsonaro said this month. “Through [the Brazilian Development Bank] and other sources of its money, Brazil is a great patron of the socialism massacring millions around the world. This will change!”
Both Venezuela and Cuba owe Brazil millions in debts taken out through the development bank (BNDES). Experts believe neither country has the capital to currently pay it back. Brazil, meanwhile, is suffering one of the worst economic climates in its history after socialist governments spent billions in public funds on, among other major projects, the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics.
And on it goes.
Well, at least now we know who was propping up Venezuela. Perhaps now there is some hope that the suffering there will end in a final collapse of their end-stage Socialism. (Perhaps it ought to be graded like cancer – Stage 4 Socialism in Venezuela as Brazil recovers from Stage 2 Socialism to be Socialism Free?)
The only part I don’t understand is why the oscillator. I’d think folks would remember what it was like under the prior times they tried a given system and catch some clue. Clearly there is something about the mass of the voting public I just don’t get. Perhaps that whole greed and envy thing…
Well, in any case, Brazil is set for an uptick. I’ll need to start watching EWZ the Brazilian market ETF again. For a few decades back in the 80’s to 90’s it made me a bucket of money. Looks like it popped 3.25% on this news. Down for at least the last decade, it ought to have a lot of upside potential – IF the new President can turn things around at the lower levels…
In this chart, as the USA tickers are rolling over in what looks like a topping action, the Brazil ETF has crashed, done a “dead cat bounce” for about 2 years, and now is showing signs of ready to recover. Notice that as the USA plunged (at the far right) Brazil rises. It is moving counter to the general USA trend. That’s a very nice indication.
The indicators are saying it’s starting a new uptrend. I’d only put modest amounts of money into it for now, though. It will take time to get a good long term trend in place.
One could make a decent amount of money just by shorting country stock baskets when they elect Socialists and going long the same ETF when they toss them out and put in place free market advocates. Or perhaps I ought to say “I have made” ;-)
I wish Brazil luck, and I hope this time they notice a pattern…