So markets have been down for a while. How much? And is it over? What do the charts say:
(Remember you can click on the image to embiggen)
Looks to me like not over yet. It could be the start of the bottom, but “bottoming” is a process not an event.
First off, we still have an inverted SMA (Simple Moving Average) stack. Furthermore, we have RUT the 2000 including smaller stocks, under SPY the 500 biggest. Classical down market weakness. Nasdaq QQQ has dropped the most, always back to the SPY line, so Tech is not your savior.
Volatility / Volume is still high, with lower volume on the up trend at the very end.
MACD is strongly below the zero line and still red on top. That’s a down market that has not yet reversed.
DMI is still strongly red on top, though the red line has just crossed the black ADX line, so a bottom could be “soon”, just not yet a confirmed bottom.
Confirmation is when price crosses the SMA stack, the stack resumes normal order, and prices return to it from above but fail to penetrate it.
So the way I read these charts, it’s not over yet, but maybe soon. So time to start watching for “bottom action”.
Emerging Markets doing better?
With China getting whacked with the “Exploitation Is Over Clue Stick” and Brazil having Election Derangement Syndrome, the answer is “nope”.
Pretty much just steady down. Periodically returns to the SMA stack then falls away again. MACD regularly below zero so when it is “blue on top” that’s just a return to trend from below. We do have a “failure to advance” to the downside in the last two down moves in end October / December, so it might well be “bottoming action”. Not yet confirmed. Volume having nice bottoming spikes, but still decreasing volume on the up run at the end. MACD and DMI both still red on top and MACD still below zero; so for now it’s still a bear market until those change. The black ADX line is below 25, so strength of move weakening as the red line drops, so again down momentum breaking, but not yet broken. We need both blue and black lines rising and crossing the red line for confirmed up momentum building. For now, I’m still out of “Emerging Markets”.
When You Piss Off Your Customers With PC:
How’s that FaceBook In Your Face working out?
Not so good.
So I guess it isn’t a good strategy to piss on 1/2 your potential (and present) customer base and call them names…