In the prior posting I was looking at all months of the data, by continent (region) and that’s 84 graphs. (12 x 7 = 84). That’s a bit much to post. I’d posted a sample and intended to post a few more months; but had the idea to see if a straight “season” graph of the 3 months in each season worked well. It does.
There is still a bit more information in the individual month graphs (as you can watch the change of volatility spread month by month), but these also show that it is a seasonal effect, variable by continent, and NOT a general effect from a well mixed gas year round.
Using the seasons also squashes the overall change of volatility from the worst of winter to the flattest of summer, so I can use the same scale for all the graphs. Comparison of one season across the continents can be very interesting in how much they vary in range.
As it is 28 graphs for “the whole world”, I’m going to put them all in here. Yeah, a lot of graphs, but it is less than 84 ;-) I’m going to do the continents backwards as I find the Antarctic (7) graph interesting and the Africa (1) not so much as it straddles the equator so has not much seasonality and what is there goes both ways. It really needs to be done as N 1/2 and then S 1/2. It would also be interesting to do graphs like this for latitude bands, but I doubt it would show anything novel, just perhaps a bit sharper.
Assuming I didn’t screw-up, the seasons ought to be color coded as well as marked on each graph. Spring is green. Summer red. Fall is orange. Winter is blue. (Yes, different months in the Southern Hemisphere…)
N.H. (Asia, North America, Europe):
Winter 12, 1, 2 Spring 3, 4, 5 Summer 6, 7, 8 Fall 9, 10, 11
S.H. (Africa, South America, Australia – Pacific Islands, Antarctica):
Summer 12, 1, 2 Fall 3, 4, 5 Winter 6, 7, 8 Spring 9, 10, 11
As you look at these graphs, you can scroll them up to the top of your monitor to “fit a line” across the tops of the data to see the “top trend”, if any.
Antarctica Region 7
Winter is crazy volatile, but NOT warmer than in the past. There is a loss of low going excursions after 1960, but I would expect that is due to station closures. The Antarctic data has big changes over time with short and non-overlapping stations. Scanning across the tops of the dots, your eye must move down at the end. Cooling? Or just lost volatility?
Spring is also volatile, but not warmer. Tops stop at the 2 C line. Again after 1960 low excursions get pruned, and recently (2000+) volatility goes very low. That could create a statistical “warming trend” but the place is not getting any warmer.
Summer is pretty much dead flat. All that ice just prevents getting much past 0 C.
Then this very intresting one. Fall is getting COLDER. Overall we see the same compression of volatility, but in this case the tops are going lower as the bottoms are coming up. Even the post 2000 temps are dropping. Since there is a known “Polar See-Saw” might the warm uptick about 2000 in the N.Hemisphere just be reflecting a cold Antarctica?
The Southern Hemisphere is mostly water, so the South America, Africa, and Australia land temperatures can’t answer that question. Only the Southern Sea temperature can, and Antarctica can drop hints.
Europe Region 6
Just OMG how volatile Winter is in Europe. Looks like it was a “bit of cold” in the ’50s to ’70s, then warmed up since (or maybe it’s just those electronic thermometers at the airports being closer to buildings…) Overall the top excursions never seem to exceed 2 C, much like in the past (1800 to 1850). As Europe has THE longest records and some of the best, that 1800 to 1850 data ought to be worth trusting.
Mostly when I look at this, I see a loss of very low excursions. Might that be snow removal and Jet-A by the ton burned at airports? Kilo-tons of heating oil in the cities? Just saying… This isn’t 1800 horses and buggies and no central heating any more. We’ve strongly industrialized.
Spring time flat across the tops, a bit of low clipping along the bottom. Then the post 1990 PC To Be Warmista loss of cold excursions. Just when electronic thermometers were put on a short wire to buildings.
Summers are very interesting. Looks to me like a clear cyclical period with peaks about 1860, minor one in 1910, then about 1940 and 2000. Sort of 60 years and an occasional 30 half cycle. The peaks do not get higher until post 2000 when “cooking the books” was decided to be “OK Climate Science”.
Generally Fall looks like nothing at all happening until after 2000.Warm in the 1930-40 period, and warm in about 2000, but no warmer than 1810. Cold in about 1890 though. Even the low excursions after about 1850 are not much different. Not much use of heaters in fall in cities? The data after about 1990 have a bit of a “manicured” look to me. (We see that in Asia down below too). Just not enough volatility in it to look real.
Australia -Pacific Islands Region 5
The Poster Child for not much happening, IMHO. Winters show the loss of low going volatility, but the other seasons are just flat to slighly cooling at the tops. Spring and Summer have a slight loss of low excursions that I would attribute to most of these stations having been “grass shacks” until post W.W.II when the Jet Age turned them into Tourist Destinations with areres of asphalt growing around the former sea plane only locations. I did a posting on Hawaii that showed that change. Grass shack photo and all. Kauai IIRC. I need to search for that…
Given that this shows the Pacific is just not with the warming program, the necessary conclusion is that “the Globe” is not warming. Cities in Asia? Sure…
North America Region 4
In many ways THE best thermometers, and certainly the most of them, for almost the longest period of time (only Europe is longer). This ought to be the best there is. What do I see in it?
Winter has lost volatility to the low side, but not warmed up. Scanning across the tops it looks about flat. IMHO, that is entirely a combination of losing the high cold stations from the record (cold is much more volatile downward as are high altitude stations with thinner air) along with Urban Heat Island effects as rural stations urbanized. It does look like post about 1990, the lows are clipping with the advent of the change of thermometers and QA method that tosses low excursions more than highs.
(It uses the same absolute number, but lows are more volatile down than highs are up. Note the need to use an asymmetrical range on these graphs).
Spring is getting colder. Other than one “flyer”, it is a clear “lower highs”. There is an overall loss of volatility, and with the loss of lows I suspect a statistical up trend line could be fit, but not because it is warmer at the tops.
That “flyer” likely has to do with some bad data in the set. I’d not filtered for crazy highs in making these graphs, but looking at them, did this report. I look for temperatures over 60C / 140 F. I doubt they are real… I’ve bolded the north america ones. Odd that they are ALL in the recent data… The first digit of the Station ID is the region or continent number.
MariaDB [temps]> SELECT year, stnID, deg_c FROM temps3 WHERE deg_C > 60; +------+-------------+--------+ | year | stnID | deg_c | +------+-------------+--------+ | 1999 | 10160535000 | 64.00 | | 2008 | 11264405000 | 60.40 | | 1997 | 11264459000 | 71.00 | | 2001 | 11365536000 | 82.00 | | 2000 | 12462008000 | 76.00 | | 2013 | 12567009000 | 67.30 | | 1999 | 12761226000 | 66.40 | | 2001 | 12761296000 | 73.00 | | 1999 | 12761297000 | 66.70 | | 2003 | 12861499000 | 86.90 | | 2004 | 13167297000 | 87.20 | | 2003 | 13361052000 | 90.00 | | 2000 | 13361099000 | 61.00 | | 2000 | 22232411000 | 74.70 | | 2010 | 30285201000 | 86.00 | | 2011 | 30285201000 | 83.00 | | 2011 | 30285242000 | 90.00 | | 2000 | 30485629000 | 99.90 | | 1981 | 40778486000 | 86.20 | | 1996 | 42572259002 | 154.40 | | 1996 | 42572352002 | 138.10 | | 1996 | 42572417010 | 102.30 | | 1996 | 42572471001 | 121.10 | | 1996 | 42574750001 | 144.20 | | 1999 | 42591178002 | 87.80 | | 2000 | 50291652000 | 70.00 | | 1992 | 50396237000 | 64.90 | | 2000 | 64740030000 | 70.00 | | 2003 | 64917285000 | 89.90 | +------+-------------+--------+ 29 rows in set (36.23 sec)
But the “flyer” is after 1996, so not from these numbers. Perhaps I need to look at > 40C…
Summers, to me, look just about dead flat. There’s some big volatility at the start of the record (with just one or a few thermometers all in the same place) After about 1850, there is what looks like a cyclical warming / cooling with peaks in about 1870, 1930, and 1990 (or 60 years apart). The overall trend from 1850 looks to my eye like it is flat peaks and “lower excursions low” up to about 2000 when it looks like maybe the low going stations are trimmed (or maybe it’s those electronic thermometers being rolled out … or their “new” QA process that tosses “outliers”…)
In any case, it most certainly does NOT look like hotter summers.
Fall looks like it was a bit cold from about 1950 to 1890, then warmed a touch and stayed flat after that. Nothing in this data looks “warming” to me. Strange how CO2 takes the Fall off in North America where we have the best records… In fact, it looks like it doesn’t really show up in any season here. Must be Trump’s fault… or The RUSSIANS!!!! /sarc;
South America Region 3
Fall and Winter nearly dead flat. Spring & Summer with some rise to them, but mostly after the start of the Jet Age with big airport expansions and the advent of the electrical thermometers in the ’90s. Mostly I see volatility suppression and a bit of UHI / Asphalt in the sun. Especially winters are just not getting warmer.
Asia Region 2
Spring, Summer, and Fall more or less flat until the ’90s when Global Warming became politically popular and the electronic instruments were rolled out. Spring has something of a trend to it. For much of this time China was industrializing. Might increased urbanization and industrialization have warmed spring a bit more than the max of summer? Winter is very volatile but showing the same slight trend of Spring. Again I suspect UHI in industrializing China (and east Asia in general).
Africa Region 1
All I see in these is the same ‘just about the ’90s’ change of thermometers to electrical devices when “Global Warming” became trendy. Nothing prior to that. Strange how all the “warming” shows up just when it was politically advocated… I used Southern Hemisphere months for the seasons.
So if you want to bet the future of Western Industrial Life on the quality of thermometers in Africa and Asia (and the honesty of their governments who have been promised $200 BILLION / year of “climate reparations” payments from The West), then go for it.
I’d rather trust the USA and Pacific records showing “not much happening” but some instrument changes and growing asphalt jungles at airports.
That’s what I see in the data. What do you see?