Levin Interviews Dr. Patrick Michaels On Climate

Fourteen minutes well spent that shows how wrong the “Climate Models” are, and why that matters to all of us due to the EPA “Endangerment Finding” being based 100% on those broken models.

I find it interesting that The Russians have a climate model that works. Wonder if it is open sourced? If anyone knows, or knows how to get a copy, let me know! It would save a lot of time trying to make one that works from the crap that doesn’t…

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in AGW Science and Background, Global Warming General. Bookmark the permalink.

19 Responses to Levin Interviews Dr. Patrick Michaels On Climate

  1. Another Ian says:

    E.M.

    The Russians aren’t sold on “CO2 is the cause” IIRC. I haven’t been able to find out if that model follows that line.

  2. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    I met Dr. Habibulo in Chicago. He has clue in excess. Figured out that minor changes in the solar diameter tell you what power output will be and that he could predict that ‘about now’ it was going to get cold (this was a half dozen years ago)… and golly, it’s getting cold now….

    No idea what the models are based on, but their Scientists KNOW what is really coming and their government took action (is taking action) based on that. Realize that in a New Little Ice Age they lose any productivity in Siberia and the northern 1/2 of the country.and have reduced production in the rest.

    So any surprise they “redeemed” Crimea (that a Ukrainian derived Khrushchev probably illegally, transferred to Ukraine) and are trying to “poach” a chunk of the “Breadbasket of Ukraine”? The KNOW that in a freeze, they lose their northern ports year round, so a warm water port is a matter of life and death to Russia. Then they need warmer climate farm production. Now they have it.

    In EVERY cold turn, the people of the Asian Steppe migrate south and west. Russia just preemptively grabbed that space in preparation… That’s my interpretation anyway.

    I’d really like to get a copy of their model code and port it to something here. I’d love to slap the Warmistas up side the head with a Russian!!! proof of their model stupidity. Heck, I’d even find it fun to “collude” with the Russian programmers. (Though we usually call that Professional Collaboration and they are likely better programmers than me anyway ;-) But my web searches are turning up only the IPCC approved models…

  3. Pingback: Levin Interviews Dr. Patrick Michaels On Climate – Climate Collections

  4. Bill in Oz says:

    E M, I too wonder what the Russian model shows.
    And your explanation of the Russian grab of Crimea makes a lot of sense.It’s why the Russians expanded their empire South to the Black sea in the 18th Century.

    PS A comment on Duck Duck Go : It is not very useful for anything to do with Australia. So I’ve reverted to ‘Goggle’ a lot of the time.

  5. Larry Ledwick says:

    Bill use startpage or ixquick (both the same thing – they use google as the source but screen your personal history from google’s system. Gives you the best of those options.

  6. Another Ian says:

    Bill

    Suggested two finger tactic is to find DDG (or equivalent) in Google and then use it

  7. E.M.Smith says:

    Or just work down this list of Search Engines seeing what you think of each of them.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_search_engines

  8. Steven Fraser says:

    @Bill in Oz, @EM: According to http://glisaclimate.org/node/2220 , the Russian model INM-CM4 is an CMIP5 Ensemble member, performing RCP4.5, 8.5, and ‘historical’ Experiments. I think an Experiment is a ‘run with certain parameters’

    BTW, from that site, you can also download the CMIP5 data.

    If I am right, it means that they use the CMIP5 code, but with their own parameterizations. If this is the case, then the CMIP5 code acquisition, and the discovery of the Russian params could be 2 separate activities. Maybe all that is needed is to ‘ask’ the Institute of Numerical Mathematics to share their params?

    I’ll poke around, to see if such is possible.

  9. Steven Fraser says:

    @EM: Maybe we could just ask John Christy if he knows how to get it?

  10. Steven Fraser says:

    @Bill in Oz, @EM: Hmm. According to https://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S000143381004002X , It appears that the Russians made their own model, V4 as an improvement to V3, for participation in CMIP5. According to the abstract, they improved the spatial resolution, and made ‘some changes in the formulation of coupled atmosphere – ocean general circulation models’.
    They claim: ‘It is shown that the new model adequately reproduces the most significant features of the observed atmospheric and oceanic climate’. I think this means they are claiming at least partial validation of the model.

    Interesting.

  11. Steven Fraser says:
  12. Steven Fraser says:

    @EM: The paper also describes the compute resources for running INMCM5: The supercomputer ‘Lomonosov’ at Moscow State University is described as using 96 cores for the atmospheric block, 96 for the aerosol block, and 192 for the Oceanic block, for a total of 384 cores. The model performance is ‘about 6 model years per day’

    They have ‘several’ model versions, which differ only in spatial resolutions. They also have versions for paleoclimate modelling.

    Verrry Interesting. Lots of discussion in this paper about the differences between INMCM4 and INMCM5. IMO, worth the read to get a hang on current modeling efforts.

  13. cdquarles says:

    Not necessarily the best place for this; yet it brought the song to mind: https://youtu.be/btPJPFnesV4.

  14. Power Grab says:

    @ E.M. re:

    “I’d really like to get a copy of their model code and port it to something here. I’d love to slap the Warmistas up side the head with a Russian!!! proof of their model stupidity. Heck, I’d even find it fun to “collude” with the Russian programmers. (Though we usually call that Professional Collaboration and they are likely better programmers than me anyway ;-) But my web searches are turning up only the IPCC approved models…”

    On the chance that I can access stuff that you can’t, can you give me some choice “clue words” to use for searching?

  15. cdquarles says:

    That’s another point the old chemist in me laughs at these “Climate Scientists”, who seem to overlook that light can power chemistry and chemistry can give off light, without internal KE meaning much.

  16. Steven Fraser says:

    @EM: I finished reading the paper. It is interesting to see what the model covers, and how they discuss its performance. Of most interest to me were the discussions the biases in model results compared to observations, and other models, over many aspects. Here is one such comment:

    ‘Figure 1 presents the INMCM5 model bias in the near surface temperature with respect to the ERA-Interim (Dee et al. 2011) for annual, December-February and June–August means for 1979–2005. For the annual mean conditions, one can see cold bias over Arctic with the maximum in Greenland Sea and cold bias over Antarctica.
    Possible source of these errors is, probably, an insufficient amount of cloud ice in upper polar cloudiness. Positive temperature bias over the Southern ocean near Antarctica (mostly evident in the summer) can be attributed to underestimation of cloud radiation forcing (CRF) and underestimation of sea ice compactness in the regions covered by ice.’

    As to overall accuracy, I found this: ‘Root mean square (RMS) error of annual mean near surface temperature was reduced from 2.48 K in the INMCM4 to 1.85 K in the INMCM5.’

    As we head toward CMIP6 model result runs, I plan to watch for reports of the RMSE (the RMS Error) in the details. I am thinking that this metric may be useful to compare the overall accuracy of the modelling.

  17. E.M.Smith says:

    @Power Grab:

    Other than “The Russian Climate Model”, I know nothing about it. Steven Fraser implies it is named “INMCM4” or “INMCM5”, and as soon as the Asia posting is done I’m going to search on that.

    I’m also planning to “hit the links” he’s provided (after Asia….) too. I’ve just got “ponder and comment” left to do then I can hit post.

  18. YMMV says:

    E.M.:

    So any surprise they “redeemed” Crimea (that a Ukrainian derived Khrushchev probably illegally, transferred to Ukraine) and are trying to “poach” a chunk of the “Breadbasket of Ukraine”? The KNOW that in a freeze, they lose their northern ports year round, so a warm water port is a matter of life and death to Russia. Then they need warmer climate farm production. Now they have it.

    In EVERY cold turn, the people of the Asian Steppe migrate south and west. Russia just preemptively grabbed that space in preparation… That’s my interpretation anyway.

    Quite right. Russian Imperialism goes back a long way, even grabbing part of Persia. They knew they needed the productive land and the sea ports. Where it gets interesting, to western eyes, is when English Imperialism and Russian Imperialism conflicted. The English were super-sensitive to any Russian moves that would block their own access to their India colony. The Crimean War was in the 1850s.

  19. Steven Fraser says:

    @EM: i’ve seen both the names, with and without the – separating the characters in 2 groups of three.

    Here is a link to a paper describing a series of runs of th ‘ 5′ model, with the year range 1850 to 2014’.

    https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/1235/2018/

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