The Climates of Africa
Africa presents a couple of problems for climate trend discovery. For one, it has this giant desert in the middle right next to one of the great wet tropical rain forests of the world. Then it has a Mediterranean Coast that is in the Northern Hemisphere along with a temperate end in the Southern Hemisphere. Seasons can be inverted, or non-existent.
Here’s the Koopen Climate map:
Looking at that you can see that Morocco and part of Algeria are comparable Mediterranean coastal, but the rest of Algeria is a hot Sahara climate. What really needs to be done is to identify thermometers in the same climate zones and only compare them. But as this is just a start, we start with comparing whole countries.
I’ve done a general grouping of countries into bands that more or less follow the map of climate zones. I was not rigorous about it. So some countries might be more properly compared to a different set of nearby countries. Let the map be your guide for your own comparisons.
In general, I start with the Sahara / bit of Mediterranean band, then scan down through the Tropical and into the Subtropical and Temperate. One “confounder” is the southern desert in places like South West Africa (now Namibia) and Botswana, who are more like each other than anything around them; and with seasons 180 degrees out of phase with the northern desert.
So to some extent my groupings were just to make the process more orderly rather than strict climate matches. But it ought to put comparable places next to similar neighbors most of the time.
I’ve made a quick first comment on each of these countries. Of neccesity, given the number, these are at best a cursory look and some sniditude sprinkled in. This group desperately needs some “Crowd Sourced” scrutiny of the graphs. I’ve flagged a couple that are particularly dodgy, and noted The Usual “drop the baseline 1/2 C raise the present about 1/2 C” and the frequent “The Jump” about 1990-2000 (that likely correlats with MMTS rollouts, IMHO… but needs a good “Dig Here!” for each country.
One other theme is the frequent 1C to 2.5 C range of “change to history”. IF our v3.3 data were really that crappy in 2015, what evidence it is any less crappy now? How do you find 1/2 C of “Global Warming” from CO2 inside 2 C of “random error” and maybe another 1 C of “thermometer changed moved near buildings for the wire”?
It just looks to me like the data are crap and being “massaged” with each release to fit a narrative. That’s my opinion; I hope you will look at the graphs and form your own.
With that, here’s Africa:
Here are the countries of Africa per GHCN. You will note many of the abbreviations do not match the names. That is due to the names changing over time. WA West Africa becomes Namibia. UV Upper Volta becomes Burkina Faso. Etc.:
MariaDB [temps]> source bin/Africa.sql +------+-------+--------+-------------------------------------------------+ | cnum | abrev | region | cname | +------+-------+--------+-------------------------------------------------+ | 101 | AG | 1 | Algeria | | 102 | AO | 1 | Angola | | 103 | BN | 1 | Benin | | 104 | BC | 1 | Botswana | | 161 | IO | 1 | British Indian Ocean Territory [United Kingdom] | | 105 | UV | 1 | Burkina Faso | | 106 | BY | 1 | Burundi | | 107 | CM | 1 | Cameroon | | 108 | CV | 1 | Cape Verde | | 109 | CT | 1 | Central African Republic | | 110 | CD | 1 | Chad | | 111 | CN | 1 | Comoros | | 112 | CF | 1 | Congo (Brazzaville) | | 154 | CG | 1 | Congo (Kinshasa) | | 113 | IV | 1 | Cote D'Ivoire | | 114 | DJ | 1 | Dijibouti | | 115 | EG | 1 | Egypt | | 199 | EK | 1 | Equatorial Guinea | | 116 | ER | 1 | Eritrea | | 117 | ET | 1 | Ethiopia | | 198 | EU | 1 | Europa Island [France] | | 143 | FS | 1 | French Southern and Antarctic Lands [France] | | 118 | GB | 1 | Gabon | | 150 | GA | 1 | Gambia, The | | 119 | GH | 1 | Ghana | | 120 | GV | 1 | Guinea | | 121 | PU | 1 | Guinea-Bissau | | 197 | JU | 1 | Juan De Nova Island [France] | | 122 | KE | 1 | Kenya | | 162 | LT | 1 | Lesotho | | 123 | LI | 1 | Liberia | | 124 | LY | 1 | Libya | | 125 | MA | 1 | Madagascar | | 126 | MI | 1 | Malawi | | 127 | ML | 1 | Mali | | 128 | MR | 1 | Mauritania | | 129 | MP | 1 | Mauritius | | 163 | MF | 1 | Mayotte [France] | | 130 | MO | 1 | Morocco | | 131 | MZ | 1 | Mozambique | | 132 | WA | 1 | Namibia | | 133 | NG | 1 | Niger | | 134 | NI | 1 | Nigeria | | 165 | RE | 1 | Reunion [France] | | 166 | RW | 1 | Rwanda | | 196 | SH | 1 | Saint Helena [United Kingdom] | | 136 | TP | 1 | Sao Tome and Principe | | 137 | SG | 1 | Senegal | | 138 | SE | 1 | Seychelles | | 139 | SL | 1 | Sierra Leone | | 140 | SO | 1 | Somalia | | 141 | SF | 1 | South Africa | | 148 | SU | 1 | Sudan | | 167 | WZ | 1 | Swaziland | | 149 | TZ | 1 | Tanzania | | 151 | TO | 1 | Togo | | 168 | TE | 1 | Tromelin Island [France] | | 152 | TS | 1 | Tunisia | | 153 | UG | 1 | Uganda | | 169 | WI | 1 | Western Sahara | | 155 | ZA | 1 | Zambia | | 156 | ZI | 1 | Zimbabwe | +------+-------+--------+-------------------------------------------------+ 62 rows in set (0.25 sec)
Sixty Two is a LOT of countries and that’s 122 graphs. That’s one long posting. Due to that, I’m going to divide Africa into three parts. North Africa near the Mediterranean including the Sahara, as many of those nations extend into the desert; then Equatorial that tends to be Tropical Rain Forrest and will include any islands of the Northern Hemisphere; and finally Southern that tends to a bit more temperate and will include the islands of the Southern Hemisphere Africa.
This may not end up an equal number of nations in each posting, but it will tend to group together those nations with similar environments. I’ve started near the Atlantic coast of the north, taking the coastal route to Eritrea, then we return across the Sahara and proceed along the tropical central coast, cross again the continent to the Indian Ocean side, returning in a weaving motion across the Southern Horn of Africa. Then we do through all those islands in the South and out into the Indian Ocean, but also including those in the Atlantic.
Northern: Equatorial: Southern: MR Mauritania CV Cape Verde AO Angola WI Western Sahara SG Senegal WA Namibia MO Morocco GA Gambia, The BC Botswana AG Algeria PU Guinea-Bissau ZA Zambia TS Tunisia GV Guinea ZI Zimbabwe LY Libya SL Sierra Leone MI Malawi EG Egypt LI Liberia MZ Mozambique ER Eritrea IV Cote D'Ivoire WZ Swaziland DJ Dijibouti GH Ghana SF South Africa ET Ethiopia TO Togo LT Lesotho SO Somalia BN Benin SU Sudan NI Nigeria Islands: CD Chad CM Cameroon MA Madagascar NG Niger EK Equatorial Guinea MF Mayotte [France] ML Mali TP Sao Tome and Principe CN Comoros UV Burkina Faso GB Gabon JU Juan De Nova Island [France] CT Central African Rep. EU Europa Island [France] CF Congo (Brazzaville) TE Tromelin Island [France] CG Congo (Kinshasa) RE Reunion [France] RW Rwanda SE Seychelles BY Burundi MP Mauritius UG Uganda IO British Indian Ocean KE Kenya Territory TZ Tanzania FS French Southern SO Somalia and Antarctic Lands [France] SH Saint Helena [United Kingdom]
Should you need to look up where one of these countries is located, here is the Political Map of Africa (click or open in a new tab to embiggen):
A pattern we have seen often, and will see often again. The “Baseline Period” used by NOAA / GISS and Hadley from about 1950 to 1990 gets cooled in the move from v3.3 to version v4 of the data, and the more recent periods get warmed.
Looking at the actual anomaly plotted below, we see the same pattern. A “dip” in the baseline period and a rise after. Oddly, they often ignore time prior to the Baseline, so here we see the temperature anomalies were about as warm as now in the 19-teens to 1930s. Also note that a line, laid across the tops, would show more a compression of the range of the Baseline; while the recent “warming average” is almost entirely a result of the loss of cold going excursions, not higher hot years. Then, the last couple of dots are near or below zero. That says that the latest data are below average and a bit cold.
So “Global Warming” has left the country, at least for now.
But at lest now you can see why 3/4 C of “tilt” was added. Cooling that hot past by 1/4 C and bumping up the recent period by 1/2 C.
WI Western Sahara
Right next door, almost surrounded by Mauritania, we have a nearly flat “trend” with adjustments all over the place. Though maybe I ought not call them adjustments. Thi sis the “unadjusted” data. It’s just had a bit of change of the past, that’s all. Just a bit of diddle…. /sarc;
Cooling he Basline by about 1/2 C; warming the more recent data by up to 1.5 C then ignoring the present. I think this one needs a bit more of a “Dig Here!”
A nice 1/2 C “dip” added about 1980 in the Baseline. We see that in the anomaly graph too. Then the very recent couple of years have up to a 2 C colder anomaly. We did have snow in those mountains IIRC. So a small pull down of temperatures just prior would help smooth things out. Then fix the trend change by putting that dip in the Basline.
I don’t really know what to make of this one, but it is odd. That must have been quite a surprising cold plunge in 1975-76. A 2 C plunge not seen before or since. Wonder if it made the newspapers? /sarc;
Lay a line across this anomaly graph at about the 0.8 C line and we have the “Dip” in the Baseline Period, but the highs are about the same between 1800s, 1950s ish and now. Thogh the most recent data are a -1 dot rather like prior cold drops. It will be interesting to see if that data point is slowly warmed over time… Since all the “warming” after about 2000 is missing cold excursions, not way high hot years, that last cold year will be an embarrassment… It also looks like they are trying to erase that 19-teens cold blip, just warming it some to make a smoother trend. Wouldn’t want it to look like a 60 year cycle with 1975. Then most of the current “warm” would be just the 1940’s + 60 years…
TS Tunisia 5
Ah, another one of these. Crazy all over the place changes of a 2 C range. So does that mean v3.3 has a 2 C random error in it and we can’t trust the official GHCN to +/- 1 C? Doesn’t that cover ALL of “Global Warming” and then some? We do get a nice generalized cooling from about 1940 through the Baseline Period then a move to quasi random changes around zero after that.
Looking at the Anomaly Graph, this is one of those station sets that was basically dead flat until about 1995, then makes a “Step Function” jump by about 1.5 C to 2 C to make the “Duck Tail” at the end. Now I was told that CO2 has been causing a general slow warming since about 1950 and that it has a fall off in effect with concentration; so that means we ought to see MORE effect early one and less recently.
In NO case ought CO2 “warming” hide in the bushes until 1995, then jump out all at once. BOO!
That’s what instrument change or data manipulation does.
I note in passing that the last data point is about -1.2 C and dead center of the historical range, so looks like “Global Warming” can evaporate in one year anyway…
Very similar observations to the above. We have a gentle cooling of the Baseline Period (with some quasi-random ‘jitter’ but more dots below zero than above.) Then about 1/2 C of “juice” being added after 1990 and one spot even taking a 1.5 C Boost.
Looking at the Anomaly plot, we see a narrowing of range in the Baseline Period, no highs, less extreme cold excursions (likely due to more instruments being averaged I’d guess)then about 1995 to 2000 “The Jump!” by 1 C to 1.5 C into the narrow range Duck Tail shape. Then the most recent years data very cold again. But don’t worry, it can get a 1.5 C boost “later” in the next revision, just like about 2002 did in this one. For now, the average “trend” is preserved and nobody will notice it was cold this past year.
A very odd Difference Graph. Mostly cooling things across the board, but with a spike in a couple of recent years. Still, the past and Baseline Period cooled more than the 1990 to 2000 interval. The odd bit being how much after 2000 was reduced. Looking at the Anomaly Plot, it is almost like they were removing the prior Duck Tail flip up. BUT tossing in two dots “Way crazy high” at almost 2 C. I guess on average that will preserve the trend. Likely good for “homogenizing” into nearby areas too.
Again it all evaporates in the most recent year, and a line at about the 0.8 C level just lays right on top of the regular hot limit. Other than the “adjusted out” v3.3 spots and the “adjusted in” v4 dots in the 20-teens. I also again note thatwith that much “error subject to administrative change” in the data, about 1.5 C in the recent best data, how are we to find 0.5 C of “Global Warming” in an error band of 1.5 C?
Speaking of error bands… 3 C range to the changes in the “unadjusted” data? Really?
Then the old data is in a down trend with relatively wide volatility, and we have a gap, then the newer data is 3 hot by 1 to 2 C and one cold by almost 3 C. Well at least they kept the volatility this time…But 3 high and 1 low does not a trend make. It’s just bouncing between the normal bounds… though that one cold down spike was about 1 C colder than any before. So is “right next door” cooling too? Well, not Egypt per the newly massaged data, but what about Dijibouti?
A closer look at Dijibouti is here:
What caught my eye, right off, was that most of the time the data are just lifted about 1/10 C with a stright line preserved. What could justify a perfectly flat adjustment for almost all the data,,. but then hava a big “dip” in the baseline period and a nice “lift” at the more recent end? ALL for “historical” data.
It just looks wrong and suspicious. And it is. (see the link).
Then the bulk of any rising trend in the anomalies is a match to the changes. What? It’s all in the changes of historical data? WT? Then, right next door is Ethiopia (in fact, Dijibouti snuggles it nicely as does Eritrria and Somalia wraps around it. The changes ought to be similar with the Ethiopia being moderted by the wetter climate but the coastal nations moderated by the local seas. Yet they are not the same.
ET Ethiopia 10
What a whack the peak temperatures of the 1950s took! A 1 to 2 C “chop” and those annoying past hot years are a nice rising trend instead. Way to patch up that baseline hot time. Then a lot of other tempertures nudged up a little on each side (with a bit more warming of the present) to balance it out in the average of changes.
On the anomaly plot, with those black 1950s dots moved dow to “on trend”, the only anoying prior heating is in the 19-teens to 20s and nobody cares about that far back.
Yet even wiht that, a flat line at about the -0.8 C point and another at about +0.8 pretty much bound the bulk of the (now) trendless data up until that “Step Function” jump in about 2000. From that point onward, no year is a cold year. Really? Would be interesting to spot check that against local news reports. Even then, it leaves the question of how CO2 did nothing until the year 2000 and then suddenly got busy.
A 3 C range to the “Fiddle” in the most recent data. So we’e got a declared 3 C error band on known data? If not “error” then why was it changed? We again have the pattern of 1950-90 range the changes are on average negative, while befoe and after things tend to get lifted.
Looking at the anomaly plot, not a lot of trend in it. Even with the fiddle. Then again, being lawless place of conflict not much chance of a new thermometer post 1990 nor much chance of data.
Leaving the Coastal band and heading back into the hard desert, we would expect more range to things.
What we get looks like an attempt to erase some embarssing hot years back in the 1920s to ’40s. A good solid 1/2 C to 3/4 C of “cool” added in. But isn’t that MORE than the CO2 “warming” we’re looking to find? If we can tilt the table by that much between two versions OF THE SAME HISTORICAL DATA, doesn’t that make it impossible to say that any 1/2 C “warming” isn’t “fiddle”?
Looking at the anomaly plot, with the v3.3 kept in, it’s a dead flat line across the tops at about 0.6 C right up to 2000, then a sudden jump. Across the bottoms is a bit more volatile (to be expected) with a line about -1 C catching most of the cold excursions with only the tip of the spikes going to -1.5 C right up until about 1995, then the cold excursions suddenly end. The whole block of data post 2000 looks like it is just shifted up 1 C and volatility reduced. A well distributed gas causing long slow heating over 60 years would not be a “step function” in about 2 to 5 years.
Ah the familar pattern. Cool the basline period by 1/4 C, pump up the recent data by 1/2 to 1 C, preto chango “instant Global Warming!”
In anomalies we again have flat to falling until we reach 2000, then “The Jump!” ™ but 1 C to 2 C after that.
Not much happening in the changes. Generally about 1/2 C of semi-random and 1 C range of extreams. What’s the anomaly plot look like?
Very wide range of volatility in the distant path, narrow waist in the 1950 to 1960 part of the Baseline Period, then spreading back out but with highs no higher than past highs until post 2000. When we again lose all cold years and the highs get bumped up in the changes. This during the “pause”. Then that last data point erases all that loverly built up heat “trapped” by all those changes to the “unadjusted” data…
What a wild ride of changes history has had here! A 2 1/4 C range near the ’30s! Everything before about 1980 cooled, after that a mix.
The Anomaly polt looks like the present about the same as the 1930s and 1900 in v3.3 so they need to cool them about 1/2 C, then clip a little bit lower in the Baseline Period (note the “usual” low volatility “waistline” about 1950-70 with NO hot years. After that, it looks like about 2000 they stop having lows as low as the Baseline and highs that go nicely higher than the newly lowered 1930s. They have even managed to keep enough variation in the year to year data to avoid that low volatility tapering Duck Tail look. Nicely done! Whoever manicured Mali needs a bonus or at least a night out on the expense account.
UV Burkina Faso 15
Formerly Upper Volta, so has UV as the country code. The Difference Graph shows cooling of 1950 to 1970 in the Baseline Period, then warming, if gentle, afterwards. We’ve even got a couple of down spike adjustments in the recent data of about -1.2 C (but few of them.
What do anomalies look like? Not much, really. We still have the 1940s about as hot as now, the latest data point at dead zero, so no warming left. If the baseline had not been cooled (dropping those black dots to the red ones) we’d have almost no trend at all. A line across the bottoms at about -.75 C catches most of the low point limit until about 1995 when suddenly lows turn up and never come below the zero line again.
Personally, I most strongly suspect the MMTS rollout has instrumemnts with more concrete, buildings and “stuff” nearby as they are on a wire leash to a building. That, alone, would knock out a lot of the low excursion potential.
Equatorial Tropical Africa:
Being at the Equator, plus or minus a little, these ought to all be about the same “shape” and about the same changes. It’s hot, humid, and tropical pretty much all over. Usually with an ocean not too far away.
CV Cape Verde
A pattern that is becoming painfully familiar. A downward spike / revision during the Baseline Priod (that drop of 1/2 to 1 C between about 1976 and 1982; then rises in the best, most recent, post 1990 data of up to 1.5 C. So just what was so screwed up in our temperature records from 1990 to date that it needs 1 C and up to 1.5 C of “fixing”? And IF it were that screwed up, how can we know that the “fix” is right? Furthermore, when we know that hte ’60 and early ’70s were cooler (the Great Pacific Climate Shift happened about 1976 bringing warmer water to North America, at least, and shifting the climate – ALL Naturall – via ocean pattern changes) then why does it need MORE administrative cooling?
Looking at the anomal plot we can see why. It’s a small Island and isn’t warming up without some help. Basically ranging between about -1 and +1 anomaly with no trend. So time to take some “tucks” in the baseline and try to lift the more recent data a bit by erasing those cold years in v3.3 data.
In the transition from Desert to Subtropical. On the coast, and wraped around The Gambia. Whith changes galore in the “Unadjusted” data.
About 1.5 C of changes. Looks like a taylor taking “a tuck here, let it out a bit there, fit is just fine!”
Can’t really see the purpose of the changes other than perhaps to hide that all the “Warming” happens post 2000 and in the changes to the data.
Looking at the anomaly plot, up to the 19-teens it’s has a range (volatility) of about 2.5 C, then suddenly that drops to about 1.5 C, then in the “Baseline Period” there’s a chunk from about 1950 to 1970 where it is down to 1 C. I really do think that a great deal of “Global Warming” comes simply from ignoring the fact that an average tends to suppress range and there were a LOT more thermometers in the baseline period than either side of it. Take out the range in the baseline, put it in a known cold period, then clip via QA some cold going excursions in the recent data and you get “Instant Global Warming!”… just about anywhere.
Looking at the anomaly plot, a line layed on the tops is basically flat to about 1985. As the bottoms rise about 1 C largely from volatility suppression. Then we “Do the jump” about 2000, and in v4 had to erase that high spot so “now” could be warmer than “then”. This is a frequent pattern too. Cooling the “just a while ago” to erase The Pause. Even with that, the bulk of any statistical “warming” is coming from reduced volatillity and removal of low excursions. At best, that’s all beneficial. At worst, it’s corrupted data.
IMHO the anomaly graph tells the tale. A huge PC Jump in 2000, rising a range of almost 4 C from just a year or two prior. Gee, was something political happening about 2000? Anyway, the current data is spot on 0 delta or lower, so it became necessary to erase that “bump” in 2000 to avoid endorsing The Pause, or worse, showing cooling.
Regarless, in the last 4 years all the “Global Warming” has left the building…
GA Gambia, The
THis one is fascinating to me. So much cooling of the recent data. 1.5 C worth. Are the data really crappy to the 1.5 C error band? If not, why the change? If so, how can we believe the 1/2 C of imputed “warming”?
Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea; they are all of a sort. Wrapped around each other and on the Atlantic edge of the African Sahara. Only Senegal is in the transition from desert to sub-tropical, and then only the northern half. By Ginea-Bissau, things ought to be far more alike than different. But their anomaly plots are all over the place.
Not much changing other than erasing some cold years in the 1940s and 1970s (we see more of that below). Then we hit the “High Quality Data” of the recent 1990s to date and “fixes” have about a 2.25 C range. So are you saying we can’t trust readings to within 2 C? Even in the modern data? In the anomaly plot that erases a hot year in the late 90s and a cold year in the 2000s.
Other than the “Dip” in the Baseline Period where volatility drops to about 1/3 C, the record is basically flat to the discontinuity at 2000. Then we get The Jump! ™ with some years 2 C higher but the bulk just shifted about 3/4 C. Wonder if they got a new electronic thermometer then… Just sayin’… Looks like it is near more concrete now.
GV Guinea 20
There are also way too many Guinea’s around the world. This is the one that’s on the coast next to Sierra Leone.
The same general pattern we see way too often. A subtile 1/10 or 2/10 C cooling of the general past, a bigger up to 1/2 C “dip” in the Baseline Period from about 1970 to 1985 in this case (Baseline for GISS and Hadley ranging from 1950-1980 and from 1960 to 1990 respectively). Then more volatile warming of records after 1990.
The anomaly plot follows the changes more than anything real, IMHO.
SL Sierra Leone
They can ignore those 1875 era warm reports, but the more recent 1900s and 1920s to 40s had to be cooled to trend better. Then the Baseline Period has a nice low volatiity narrow range and when volatility returns in the recent data, we get the Jump about 1995 to 1 C warmer. Only problem is that it’s supposed to be 1/2 C and it was supposed to start in abut 1940 with significant warming in the 1980s when Hansen was going BSC with Congress. You are not supposed to be flat to 1995 then do a Jump!
This one is amusing. They ease into a 1/2 C drop of the baseline about 1980, then work back up to warming 1/2 C to 3/4 C toward the end of it. One wonders why until the anomaly plot is inspected. Cold data in the later 1990s had to be erased, then the early 1990s “lifted” a bit to avoid the apearance of a cooling trend. Then we “take a gap” followed by a “splice” on of new data that’s slightly warmed. Overall, it tilts the past a bit lower and smooths it out so a nicer “stick” to the “blade” spliced on.
Still needs work though. Not much acutal warming going on. After all, Sierra Leone just next to you manged a whole 1 C of spectular warming. Surely you can cook another 1/2 C into things.
IV Cote D’Ivoire
In the same strip of coastal and as those below, but with a very different shape to the graphs.
Minor cooling of the data until 1970, then a minor warming after. Erasing a cold year just after 2000.
I can see why they needed to do that. Other than a cold dip in the “New Little Ice Age” era of the 70s, they have no rising trend. So pull the past down a couple of tenths, push the present up a smidge, and you get a tiny trend. Enough to join the club.
Right next to Togo. Get’s a very odd set of changes. Pumping up the 1900-1920 interval by up to 2 C, then about 1.25 C of range to sporadic “fixes” after 1990. I thought we were supposed to have good thermometers then?
Looking at the anomaly plot, looks like an attempt at volatility reduction in the deep past and trying to form a “stick” for the “blade” to be on, instead of a volatility wedge. 1950 to 1970 just crazy low volatility. All the highs and lows gone. Really? Then the reason for the odd ‘recent cooling’ becomes clear. Can’t have The Pause so need to cool down those 90s so the present reports look hot. From about 1960 to date you can almost fit a straight line to the lower bound, with a very clear removal of low going anomlies. QA process run amok?
TO Togo 25
A little slip of a country right up against Benin. They get a very similar “fix” too.
Talk about your blatant Fiddle Faddle. Cool the 1950 to 1990 Baseline Period exactly to the years by about 1/4 to 1/2 C increasing, then BANG! right on the end of it, start a gratual warming pattern up to 1/2 C but with a couple of “fliers” of +1 C and almost +2 C. Besides, now folks are going to notice that the 19-teens were about as hot as all the other recent data points but that one. Look, it would be easer to just erase the teens… Oh, wait…
The anomaly plot shows the pull down in the Baseline Period, and the erasure of the cold years in the 2000s. Then you really think you can sell a +2 C end point? Really? That’s too soon. Not till a couple of more years. Heck it’s 3 C higher than the low part of the Baseline.
A little sliver of a country on the coast. But such crude fiddle faddle.
Chop out the cold 1970s, drop the Baseline Period 1/2 C, then bounce up the present by up to 1/2 C. Just crazy obvious what you are doing. Look at Nigeria (your neighbor) below. They hide it much better.
In the anomaly plot we can see the easure of the cold ’70s, and then pulling the 80s and 90s down by 1/2 C to make a cooler baseline, finally the “The Jump!” ™ in 2010 to “make a trend” and finally leaving the most recent data lone so it doesn’t stand out. Really guys? That’s the best you can do? This just hollers “Data Diddle”, you now. Folks are gonna talk. I’m gonna do a “Dig Here!” on it. Is that really what you wanted?
Compared to Cameroon just below, Nigeria is doing a vern subtle job of it. Only a minor cooling of the pre-1940s past by about 1/4 C, taking out a bit of cold in 1940 to make it look more like a flat stable past, Nice low volatility baseline period with highs suppressed, and then a gap and instant subtle “Global Warming” of an appropriate 1/2 C after 2000 with suppression of cold going anomalies.
Nicely Done Nigeria! Now go talk to Cameroon. They are an obvious mess with ham handed Diddle.
Can you say “Trying too hard”? I knew you could. Just look at that Difference Graph. A 2 C range to the changes. That’s just trying too hard to please. Warming everything after 1995 by an average of about 1 C is just showing off too much.
Then what do we see in the Anomaly Plot? Bit of cold coming out of the LIA. Then a long gap in the warm 1920s to 1950s, essentially dead flat to about 1995 with the “pinched waist” we see a lot around the Baseline Period especially prounounced in the 60s. Then, while the black dots stay flat, the New Improved Warmed!!! Red Dots make a great rising Duck Tail Anomaly. Beautifully tapering volatilty to near zero at an almost 2 C Peak Of Roasting hot! But other countries in Africa report a cold recent couple of years. And CO2 was supposed to be warming us most between 1950 and 1990, and after 2000 was The Pause in satellite data. Dear Cameroon, I think you are trying a bit too hard. Had you backed off the changes to a more ignored 1/2 C you would be in line with CO2 Theory and also not standing out like an over enthusiastic 3rd grader.
Just look back up at Nigeria. They did it much better. A very hard to spot gentle 1/2 C of post 2000 fudge. Look, you share a border with them and the same coastline, weather, and climate. People will talk if you are too different. Sober up, man! And don’t diddle the thermometer data so much, get a room where folks wont see you.
CT Central African Republic
Just below Chad and the desert. Just inland from Cameroon. In the Tropical Savanna.
Despite huge 1.5 C range changes in the historical data between v3.3 and v4, not much “Global Warming” in the anomaly plot. Here, too, they gently cool the past by about 1/4 C (but put some +/- variation in the shift) but, LOOK! A new trick! They just drop and erase those pesky warm 1940s! How elegant. Folks can’t see what isn’t there, after all. The cold 1970s get the “fix” eraser too. The net result being to remove a natrual hot to cold cycle and replace it with a generally 1/2 C cooler past. Then, after 2000, some wide ranginhg “Putty and Spackle Work” to tidy up the tail. Still needs some work but at lest now it looks like some warming instead of just a cycle going nowhere.
EK Equatorial Guinea
No data in v3.3 so all we get is the v4 anomaly plot. Which is a short record with about zero. A couple of cool years around 2002 and 2005, otherwise not much of note.
MariaDB [temps]> SELECT COUNT(deg_C) FROM anom3 WHERE abrev='EK'; +--------------+ | COUNT(deg_C) | +--------------+ | 0 | +--------------+ 1 row in set (0.70 sec)
TP Sao Tome and Principe 30
Sleepy little island off the coast. Nothing happening. No Global Warming. No changing. Ignored.
Difference graph dead flat. Anomaly plot dead flat. Better stop taking their data in the 1980’s…
This one is just a classic. Anomaly Plot of black spots not rising, so cool the past by a few 1/10s C and after 2000 put some juice in it, baby! By 1/2 to 3/4 C. Go for it!!!
Then the anomaly plot, while flat to falling until the year 2000, suddenly does “The Jump!” ™ by, wait for it, 1/2 to 3/4 C. Instant Global Warming! Buy it now, in stores everywhere!!! /sarc;
CF Congo (Brazzaville)
Too many “Congos”. This one is the one on the other side of the river from the former Zaire and closer to the coast. It is a strip between the coastal Gabon and the more inland D.R. Congo.
The Difference Graph is a bit bizzare. 1.5 C range of change. A couple of 1/10s C of cooling the deep past, a bump up of 1/2 C of the start of the Baseline Period, then a pull down of 1/2 C to 1 C in the second half. Finally a pump of up to 1/2 C in the recent data. Error much?…
The anomaly plot showd the typical low volatility “pinched waist” effect around 1960. Manicured data or just the result of averaing a lot more thermometers so any variation gets suppressed? Need to count up the thermometers by year here. The past is volatile to the 2 C range, 1960 about 1/3 C then volatility expands back out to about 1 C of range. looks like they trimmed out that low pulse in the 1970 range then lifed the recent data to remove The Pause. Ending on a hot point (despite other countries around that end of Africa having a cold year…)
CG Congo (Kinshasa)
This one is the former Zaire. Central to the south of Africa, where it can be homgenized in to almost anywhere in the southern 1/3 of the continent.
Rather dramatic changes to the historical data between v3.3 and v4. We’ve got nothing changed until about 1975 Then changes with a 1.75 C spread, mostly adding cooling in the Baseline Period until about 1990, then shifting to warming after 2000 with most of the changes in the first 1/2 C of Plus range.
The anomaly plot? Very strange look to it. That “pinch” in 1960 looks like someone took out too much range of warming. Then the big “suck down” of the black spots into the 90s is a bit obvious. Yet still the plot is basically dead flat to 2000. Even staying near the zero line to about 2008. Then BANG! 1 C of “Global Warming”! Looks very much NOT like CO2 gradually warming the planet since 1940, and a lot more like “Instrument Change” or “Diddle”. Pick one.
RW Rwanda 35
No data in v3.3 so all we get is the v4 Anomaly Plot.
MariaDB [temps]> SELECT deg_C FROM anom3 WHERE abrev='RW'; Empty set (0.49 sec) MariaDB [temps]> Not in version 3.3, so no Difference Graph, just the V4 anomaly plot. MariaDB [temps]> SELECT mean3 FROM yrcastats WHERE abrev='RW'; +-------+ | mean3 | +-------+ | NULL | | NULL | | NULL | | NULL | [... more NULLS] | NULL | | NULL | +-------+ 62 rows in set (0.06 sec) MariaDB [temps]>
So the present is almost exactly zero warming ( +/- 1/2 C each side of zero over a couple of years) and the only notable point is that it was quite cold in 1970-1985. “The Jump” from 2000 to about 2015 is a nice touch, that being the period of “The Pause” and all (must erase The Pause…), but couldn’t hold onto it in recent data. A “Watch Here” for future “fixing”…
Just not with the program in Burundi. Cooling in the Difference Graph of about 1/10 C. That’s all you can do?
Then the anomaly plot is about as dead flat as you can get. Let’s just forget those old years (they can be homgenized in from somewhere cooler) and cut off new data after 1990 (homogenize that in from somehwere with a better Duck Tail flip) and use this just as Baseline cool.
This one is a hoot. In this case, look first at the Anomaly plot below. BIG gap between about 1980 and 1990 (I think they were having a war then). Volatility at the start is about 2 C range. It narrows to about 1 C in 1970. Then there’s a cold year. Now notice that the Diffrence Graph above ends in 1980. It is changed to 1/2 C colder. That’s the usual “cooling the Baseline Period”. When readings return, in the 90’s, they are a solid 1/2 C and sometimes 1 C higher. So all of “Global Warming” here happened in the 10 year gap. Mind the gap!
Taking a little tuck in the hot 1920’s to 30’s of about -1/2 C (got to get rid of that pesky warm past). Then jittery around zero up to 1960 with a steady cooling of the Baslne Period up to 1990, a bit of an overshoot on the cooling hisotry to 2000. At that point the changes go more volatile with about 1 C range to the “error correction” – and here I thought we were supposed to have electronic thermometers accurate to 1/100 C in this millenium… SO why a 1 C “diddle” in data from this last decade?
The anomaly chart is amusing too. The old hot past prior to 1930 gets pulled down hard. Volatility between about 1940 and 1975 is kept way low at around 1/2 to 3/4 C. Then in 1980 the v3.3 data takes a rocket ride up of 1.3 C or so. Guess that stood out so it gets pulled back down keeping the most recent data as “warming”. Can’t have it “Pause”, you know. Then that cold year around 1998 gets erased with a huge 1.25 C adjustment / fix / fudge / “whatever you call changes in the unadjusted data”…
Would be interesting to check newspapers from there, then, to see if there was a cold year reported.
What do you do with a country with no trend? Add one! So the Basline Period from about 1975 to 1990 gets pulled down 1/2 C, then you bump up after 2000 by 1/2 C to 1 C, and what does the anomaly plot do? Gives you warming, sort of, if you don’t look back at the 1920s.
I like the way it’s warm in the 1920s, then we have a drop into about 1975, then a wobble but still low in the 1990. One wonders where CO2 was all those decades of cooling…. Then, suddenly, in 2000 and a bit “Global Warming!!” bursts onto the scene in one year. We pop up in just a couple of years by about 1 C to 1.5 C, but caan’t hold onto it. The most recent data points being colder than the average… I guess that means “Tanzania needs work” ;-)
Southern Horn Of Africa:
Wow! A full on pumping of the last half dozen years. A nice small cooling of the deep past.
Then the anomaly plot shows a nice cooling of the deep past… But wait, were not other places warmer in the 1920s to 1940? This shows Angola cooler. Then a sudden jump of 1 C that holds flat until 1990, then another jump to 2 C warmer “now”. But CO2 doesn’t cause 2 C of warming. That’s what they say is in our future scare story…
So per this Difference graph, Namibia has 1.5 to 2 C of “error” that had to be taken out from v3.3 to v4.
Again we have flat to declining through 1980 on the Anomaly plot, then a step up of about 2 C and a widneing dispersion into the present. Not in keeping with CO2 theory but looks more like instrument change at a point in time.
A general systematic cooling of the data prior to 1980, then wide ranging volatile but sparce changes recently.
The anomaly plot is essentially dead flat to 1980, then a Step Function higher by 1 C to 2000, then it drops back a bit but without much trend.
Was there somehing crazy happening in Zambia between 1990 and now to justify didding their recorded data by a 2.5 C range of Diddle? In the recent and supposedly best data?
The anomaly plot is a mess too. General cooling from 1920 to 1980 by roughly 2 C (so 2 C of temperature change can be “Natural Causes”, right?) up to 1980. Then it rockets up by 2 C and volatility goes wild. How can this happen here and not in any country around it?
ZI Zimbabwe 45
Cooling the 1930s to 1970, so I guess they had it hot then, Then 1/2 C of warming the data until the approach to 2000, when the changes go way nutty. A 2 C range of “fixes”. So 2 C error band, right? Right?…
The Anomaly plot has general cooling through 1980, a rise back to normal into about 1990 (now “lifted” by 1/2 C of change of the data for v4) and then a mess at the end.
This one is just a mess. Difference graph with a 2 C range in the “Latest And Greatest” temperture anomalies. Otherwise just a touch of cooling of the Baseline Period.
Anomaly plot showing nothing much at all happening until 1980, then “The Jump” through 2000, that they then had to erase with these changes so “now” would look warmer, but it wasn’t, so it had to get juiced too. Now we’ve got about 4 years pegged high with near zero volatility and 2 C of warming.
So really, how does CO2 do that? How does it do nothing until 1980, “Then Jump!” up by 2 C, all while other countries are saying last year was a cold year?
A real mess of a Difference graph. A full 2 C range to the changes in historical data. So was GHCN v3.3 bogus to a range of 2 C? Was it? If not, why the changes?
Basline gets a nice 1/2 to 1 C dropout. 2000 gets a 1/2 to 1 C boost.
The anomaly plot shows the erasure of a warm 1960s and a lifting of the present to make a trend. ALL the warming comes out of the changes of the data.
Not in v3.3 so no Difference graph:
MariaDB [temps]> SELECT COUNT(deg_C) FROM anom3 WHERE abrev='WZ'; +--------------+ | COUNT(deg_C) | +--------------+ | 0 | +--------------+ 1 row in set (0.69 sec) MariaDB [temps]>
Nice dropout in the Baseline Period, so this data will be compared with a cold artificial baseline from nearby data (where “nearby” can be 1200 km away) in the GIStemp / Hadley methods.
Otherwise, not any real warming in the anomaly plot.
SF South Africa
A general small cooling of the past up until about the start of the Baseline Period. Then it widens out to about 1/2 C of range to the changes.
The anomaly plot is essentially dead flat to 1980 (so where was “Global Warming” then, eh?) with some fast cycles at about the length of a sun spot cycle. Then it pivots up, mostly on higher lows, to 2000 when those changes help raise the highs just enough higher to make a trend.
An interesting thing to ote about South Africa, is that depsite all those changes between the two sets, the net change is nearly zero. Only is the time of change important…
MariaDB [temps]> SELECT AVG(mean4-mean3) FROM yrcastats WHERE abrev='SF' ; +------------------+ | AVG(mean4-mean3) | +------------------+ | -0.094088 | +------------------+ 1 row in set (0.07 sec)
So take the average of ALL the diffrences between v3.3 and v4, it is nearly zero. It truncates to 0.0 C but rounds to 9/100 C. Effectively zero. Yet all the data change. Isn’t that a remarkable thing, for so much change?
LT Lesotho 50
Interesting that there’s so little data in v3.3 for the Differenc graph, yet so much more v4 in the Anomaly Plot. The changes have a 1 C range to them, so again I must ask “If 1 C is administrative diddle, how can you claim 1/2 C of ground truth Climate Change?”. You have here a statement that there’s 1 C of error band. Own it.
Not much warming going on in the anomaly plot. More nearly cooling recently.
Southern Hemisphere African Islands:
Next to, and largely surrounded by, the islands that follow; Madagascar ought to look a lot like them. But it doesn’t. Guess the French and the English don’t have as much influence there. The Difference graph shows little being changed until 1940, just a couple of patches of change. Then we get 1/4 C of cooling until about 2000 when it swaps to warming a smidgeon.
The Anomaly plot is fascinating. This is what I would expect an island located in a place with cyclical current changes to look like. A fairly consistent about 1/2 C range, but one that wanders cyclically up and down about 2 C. Looks like about an 80 year cycle to me. I don’t see much being wrong with Madagascar data. Even the 1/2 C of “adjusting the unadjusted” in the Difference chart doesn’t manage to bias it too much.
This would imply that other islands with short records might well show a 1 C rise from 1980, but simply lack the older data to show it is just a regular cycle.
MF Mayotte [France]
The Difference graph looks like they needed to remove the hot excursion from 1998 so as to let “now” be hotter. Generally a nice steady 1/4 C cooling of the past added in, and then recent data warmed just 1/4 C. Gotta love the precision and finesse of the French.
The anomaly plot is also nicely finished. Polishing off those rough high excursions of the late 1990s, putting a wonderfully fine Duck Tail on the present. Narrowing the volatitlity range of the 1950 of about 1 C down to a slim 1/4 C in the present. Finally, the coup de gras, a stellar 1 C hotter “now”. No cold year for them.
Nothing much happening in the change departement but some slight rollling until the 1970s, then we start getting warming added to about 1/2 C. Guess they got the memo that the goal was 1/2 C of “Global Warming”.
The anomaly plot reflects that with things nicely stepping up about 1/2 C to the cutoff in 1980… for version FOUR data. The v3.3 continues on, but not warming. I guess all they could do was truncate that non-warming and let it have some warm “homogenized” in from other islands with bigger airports…
JU Juan De Nova Island [France]
MariaDB [temps]> SELECT COUNT(deg_C) FROM anom3 WHERE abrev='JU'; +--------------+ | COUNT(deg_C) | +--------------+ | 0 | +--------------+ 1 row in set (0.34 sec) MariaDB [temps]>
A French island with a very short record. It looks like a nice smooth trend, but is mostly located after the point where longer records “take a knee” and turn upward. Over about 40 years, has near 1.5 C of rise. That’s not the CO2 thesis, so what is it?
EU Europa Island [France] 55
MariaDB [temps]> SELECT COUNT(deg_C) FROM anom3 WHERE abrev='EU'; +--------------+ | COUNT(deg_C) | +--------------+ | 0 | +--------------+ 1 row in set (0.73 sec)
A nice steady rise, of about 1.5 C, for the lows. Similar for the highs. Yet the most recent dot is below zero anomaly, so essentially average. The French do a nicer job of sculpturing the data, IMHO.
TE Tromelin Island [France]
Again with cooling the past, going almost neutral near the later baseline period, then a bit of lift to the present. / recent data. The anomaly graph also has a nice steady rise to it, now augmented by the recent changes. . BUT the pivot comes about 1990. That’s when the range decreases from about 1 C to about 1/2 C and down closer to 1/4 C in the last few years. The anomly does a small jump then, and another just after 2000. Looks like the changes are partly to erase those step functions and smooth out the “warming”.
RE Reunion [France]
Nice adjustment pattern to the “unadjusted”! Pull the past down by about 1/4 C up to the 2000 pivot point, throw in some random spots up a smidge, then warm the post 2000 smootly up to 1/4 C. That way you bag a nice 1/2 C of warming, spot on the prediction of “Global Warming”. Just by a minor re-write of the history from THE definitive data set of 2015. So will they say it was crappy prior to 2015?
The anomaly plot is almost as nicely done. They do still have the narrowing volatility Duck Tail problem. Things start out cold and with a range of about 1 C. This continues to about 1985 – 1990 when range decreases, the lows rise, and the highs start rising about 1998. Interesting to note that the high here is over 1 C high while the other places have generally shown a cold recent year. Someone missed the memo…
In the same water as most of the rest of these islands, yet with a very differnt profile or “shape” of the anomaly plots. The Difference graph puts a bit of ‘lift’ into the period from 1950 to 1970, then starts lowering things. But not by much. My guess would be that the period near 1940 is ‘way cool’ so they can lift it some to balance their statistics on warming vs cooling adjustments, while not changing any trend.
The overall Anomaly graph has a generally flat upper bound at about +1/2 C until near 2000. Then there are some nearly zero volatility years and it does the turn upward by about 1/2 C more. The bottoms would be characterized by a line about -1/2 C with occasional excursions down to -1 1/3 C in about 1905 and 1945. Those excursions then end and the bottom makes all the “warming” trend as volatility narrows significantly. I note in passing tha the most recent data are at zero. So “Global Warming” has left the building.
Not a lot changes, but maybe that’s because they already have a beautiful Duck Tail flip in their anomaly plot? These island have a full 2 C of difference between the old lows and the new lows. As that is also way more than the CO2 prediction or claim to date, I once again wonder “Where does it come from?” The anomalies are basically dead flat with highs at about 1/4 C above the zero line and lows about 3/4 C below up until 2000. THen there’s a clear pivot upward and compression of range from about 1 C to about 2/10 C. Has the climate of Mautitius been remarkably constant the last decade? Not a single cool year? Really?
IO British Indian Ocean Territory 60
An odd tweek here. A general cooling of most of the past, then a set of alternating “about zero” and about 1/10 C of higher, then another near flat about zero, but with 1/10 or so below zero. Just odd.
The current anomaly is “about zero” so no accumulated “Global Warming” while there is a blip up by about 1 C in 1998. Back at zero about 1982, then I guess the “cooling the past” is there to try to remove some of the warmth from 1960 ish and make some kind of trend.
FS French Southern and Antarctic Lands [France]
Not sure exactly where these are, but we once again have the “cool the past warm the present” changes in the data. There are some token adjuments upward (in this “unadjusted” data) in the early years, the bulk of the data points x distance is below the zero line prior to 2000, then it goes to predominantly above. Likely another good candidate for closer scrutiny.
The anomaly graph only really has “trend” in the changed red spots. The black spots rise some from 1970 to 1980 but then are basically dead flat to about 2015 when they end. The “warming” is in the changing to higher in the v4 version of history.
SH Saint Helena [United Kingdom]
Looks like it’s not in v3.3 ( I wonder where it was accounted then, if anywhere?)
MariaDB [temps]> SELECT COUNT(deg_C) FROM anom3 WHERE abrev='SH'; +--------------+ | COUNT(deg_C) | +--------------+ | 0 | +--------------+ 1 row in set (0.69 sec) MariaDB [temps]> SELECT mean3 FROM yrcastats WHERE abrev='SH'; +-------+ | mean3 | +-------+ | NULL | | NULL | | NULL | [... repeated NULL...] | NULL | | NULL | | NULL | | NULL | +-------+ 128 rows in set (0.06 sec) MariaDB [temps]>
Here’s the Anomaly graph. Nice steady rise to it…
Though it looks like about 2 C+ of rise. Rather a lot more than the supposed 1/2 C from “Global Warming” we’ve been told has happened. Wonder what caused it?
I put most of my conclusions in the introduction. This one was grueling to do. So much so that even the Fire Fox Spell Checker, even running on the Odroid N2 with 4 GB of memory, crapped out about 3/4 of the way through and stopped giving errors messages, so “here there be typos”…
But now I’m done.
No, I’ve not done my usual QA read through for errors, typos, and consistency. I’ll do that later, maybe. After a couple of days off ;-)
Next up is Europe, and while there are fewer countries than Africa, it is almost as much. I may break it up into a couple of parts just to avoid the Mammoth Posting problems.
Just be glad all you have to do is look at a few graphs and read a comment or two about them ;-)
My overall impression of the graphs and the data is that there is a “Tayloring” operation going on. The changes are NOT just a little fix up here and a correction there. It looks to me like it has direction and purpose. Cool the Baseline Period. Cool warm past periods. Warm the recent data UNLESS it is too high in the last 2 decades, then you cool them so the nearest data can look warmer in comparison. Stamp out cold periods in the middle. Remove cool periods recently if not already suppressed. The quesiton that remains for me is just: “Is that an accident from ignoring the effects of Instrument Change, or a deliberate planned act?”
With that, I’m taking a break. Over to you folks for more analysis.