Deportation Logistics Are Easy

Ran into a Fox News clip over at Right Side Broadcasting:

WH Moves to Expedite Deportations of Illegal Immigrants

The White House moved to expedite deportations of illegal immigrants on Monday in an effort to counter the growing influx pouring through the border.
Bailee Byers 1 min ago

The Trump administration announced on Monday it is expanding fast-track deportation regulations to include the removal of undocumented immigrants who cannot prove they have been in the U.S. continuously for two years or more.

The change dramatically expands the ability of the Department of Homeland Security to quickly deport certain immigrants without any of the due-process protections granted to most other people, including the right to an attorney and to a hearing before a judge. It is set to go into effect Tuesday and is the latest escalation of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown.

They then embed a FOX news clip (hit their link to see it) that has some numpty Talking Head (John Gihon “Former ICE Sr. Attorney” so does “former” imply Obama Drone?) saying it would be “nearly impossible” to round up and deport “A Million People” with existing orders to vacate the country. These are folks who had their day in court, lost, and have been given final orders of removal.

Oh Really?

Part of the claim is that “there aren’t a million beds”. Well, heck, you don’t NEED a million beds. Let’s say you have planes, trains, ships, and buses leaving ONLY week days and ONLY 50 weeks of the year (taking a vacation, don’t you know, and everyone needs the weekend off…). So divide your 1,000,000 by 50 x 5 days. That’s 1,000,000 / 250 = 4000. You need 4000 beds to hold the folks leaving on any given day. Now maybe you can’t do “just in time” so you need to hold a week’s worth. That’s still just 20,000 beds. Do note that if spread over the 50 States (assuming most of the week is spent batching and moving to the deportation site) we’re back down to 400 beds / State. Not exactly a big number.

He then went on to say it would be impossible to round up that million folks anyway. Oh Really? Since ICE works every day of the year, let’s assume they don’t want the bad press of picking folks up on Christmas or Thanksgiving and call it a 360 day year as a reasonable guess of 5 “critically sensitive” days. Divide your million by 360 you get 2778 per day. That’s way less than the number of ICE agents, so you can have more than one working on each person nabbed (and often there will be multiples at any one location / pickup…).

Now again, spread that over the 50 States. That’s 56 per State on average.

There were over 10.5 million arrests for all offenses in the United States in 2017. This figure is a decrease from 1990 levels, when the number of arrests was over 14.1 million.

So that is 28,767 per day now, and we’ve done 38,630 per day.

Somehow I think we can handle 7% of a normal daily workload…

“BUT that’s ALL arrests! Not just ICE!” I can hear someone prepping to say:

The big border headline this week was that U.S. authorities arrested or turned away more than 144,000 people at the southwest border in May, including more than 100,000 family units and children, far exceeding previous monthly totals this year and putting us on pace for illegal immigration levels not seen in 13 years. The U.S. Border Patrol apprehended on average 4,200 people a day last month and now has more than 19,000 people in custody.

So we’re able to handle 4,200 per day at the border but somehow doing 2/3 of that is impossible?

I smell a great big political Lie Rat.

The logistics of getting a million folks deported who are flagrantly breaking our laws is not all that hard. First, shut down that flood at the border. Trump, via “recruiting” Mexico, has made a good start on that. Second, stop the “Catch And Release” that’s making things harder and stop letting folks flood in and run anywhere in the country “pending hearing”. Trump’s also got that going pretty good. Now you can reposition a lot of those staff who were otherwise spinning their wheels on “catch and release” and border processing and instead have them find the folks who are ignoring Court Orders, and put them on a plane, train, or bus to their country of residence.

As a sidebar to this, there was another story about the FBI and ICE hoovering up all the DMV data including photos from all the States. Match that with the directive to integrate data across agencies (as just asking on the census was blocked long enough to run out the clock) and you can do a very rapid match of deportation orders to DMV records. I’d also wager that there are photos taken of folks in the “Catch And Release” process that can be facial recognition matched to those DMV records…

So for a huge swath of the Illegal Immigrant Population, finding them will not be all that hard.

Will there be a “hard core” of folks like MS-13 drug dealers who operate without any attempt at things like drivers licences and similar? Certainly. But far far less than the Magic Million Number… And, in fairly short order, I’d expect a LOT of them to be concentrated in “Sanctuary Cities” and “Sanctuary States” as they abandon places like Texas where local police are likely to join in and help the process and make a run for “safer” places. That “concentration” alone will help in picking them up.

So as the bulk of the workload is reduced, the available officers can spend more time working on the harder cases and getting them done too.

This is a classical logistics problem and is subject to the Logistics Curve. The “S” shaped curve. At the start things are slow, they rapidly rush through the center as volume rises dramatically, then starts to tail off at the top of the S as fewer subjects are left to deal with.

It will be a large body of work, but I see nothing that makes this impossible, or even all that difficult, to accomplish inside of one year.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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6 Responses to Deportation Logistics Are Easy

  1. Pouncer says:

    You know arithmetic of this sort is considered racist and privileged these days, right?

    A somewhat less numerical argument. Suppose the IRS wants to motivate citizens to comply with the Tax Code. There are (a very big number) of returns filed each year. Does the IRS audit all of them to ferret out the cheats and scofflaws? Or is it sufficient to call in (a tiny fraction) of taxpayers, in categories known to be prone to tax problems? Does the small sample of audits actually incentivize filers to be honest? If not, why not abolish the IRS?

  2. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well we have a proof of concept in the Eisenhower program to expel illegal immigrants started in May 17 1954 and ended in 1962.

    It had the unfortunate name of Operation Wetback, which at the time did not have anywhere near the negative baggage it has today.

    It initially was allotted :
    Command teams of 12 Border Patrol agents, buses, planes, and temporary processing stations began locating, processing, and deporting Mexicans who had illegally entered the United States. A total of 750 immigration and border patrol officers and investigators; 300 jeeps, cars and buses; and seven airplanes were allocated for the operation.

    Overall, there were 1,074,277 “returns”, defined as “confirmed movement of an inadmissible or deportable alien out of the United States not based on an order of removal”[34] in the first year of Operation Wetback. This included many illegal immigrants who fled to Mexico fearing arrest; over half a million from Texas alone.[35] The total number of immigration enforcement actions would fall to just 242,608 in 1955, and would continuously decline by year until 1962, when there was a slight rise in apprehended workers.[36] Despite the decline in immigration enforcement actions, the total number of Border Patrol agents more than doubled to 1,692 by 1962, and an additional plane was also added to the force.

    It is very doable if like in Eisenhower’s administration it is done in cooperation with the Mexican government.

    With few chartered 757’s or leased cruise ships, and it would be easy to do if a concerted effort was made. Many of the “removals” were self – deportations of people who wanted to avoid forced removal and go home under their own terms.

    You could accelerate it (and probably be cheaper in the long run) to pay a self-deportation bounty to those who leave voluntarily by giving them a voucher for travel to any major city destination in Mexico and a small get on your feet stipend with the provision that if they re-entered the US they would immediately be jailed or some similar penalty.

    Just think of the mass movements that occur during major holidays to resort areas in Mexico, we routinely move hundreds of thousands into Mexico on a weekly basis as it is.

  3. E.M.Smith says:

    Hmmm offer a free expenses paid vacation to Mexico for Cinco de Mayo… and strictly check status on the return :-)

  4. H.R. says:

    @Larry L. re ‘wetbacks”

    I haven heard that term used for quite a while, though its use was common among the Texas contingent of my family.

    I am related to a fair, probably measurable, percentage of Texans as my ancestors on my mother’s maternal side settled in Texas in 1854 and were… um…. ahem… prolific. On her paternal side, well her dad came over from Bohemia with his family in 1904 at the age of four.

    Anyhow, wetbacks are spoken of with disdain by mom’s family, but Tex-Mex is a whole ‘nother subject, as some of the relatives on the maternal side of mom’s family married Texans who were Mexicans until the property changed hands to America. The borders moved. They didn’t.

    It’s a bit of a funny topic when it comes up at reunions and whatnot; good-natured ribbing all around. ‘Gringos’ can be hilarious when thrown about by family.

    P.S. Half the family is ‘Lone Star’ beer and the other half is ‘Shiner’, a Czech beer. No particular point. Just an observation.

  5. p.g.sharrow says:

    Actually the first recorded use of “wetback” was General Santa Anna that took an expedition into the Mexican State of Texas to drive the Anglo wetbacks out of Mexico! He lost to the Texacans that did not want to live under his Dictatorship…pg

  6. Steve C says:

    I wholly approve of this thinking, particularly in the light of Pouncer’s entirely true observation at the top of the first comment. It’s not just a US problem, of course, but in one or another form afflicts all formerly white countries and, to be blunt, if we don’t wake up smartish there will soon be no white race, and the Coudenhove-Kalergi vermin will have prevailed.

    OK, so on the scale of archaeological time the passing of this or that people may be essentially insignificant, but to me, here, now, as a member of it, allowing, or worse, encouraging the destruction of the people who, in a few short centuries, have dragged humanity out of mediaeval squalor and given it everything we have today is high crime indeed. We all need to root out the “enemy within” and deal, effectively, with the grotesque problems which they have unloaded on us. NO politician will even acknowledge that the problems exist, which does not bode well for a “civilised” solution.

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