This is an interesting video by Yanasa Ana Ranch.
This is a farmer that looked at the Global Warming Hype and found it lacking. Now he is figuring it out for himself, and predicting crop growing conditions (because that is what all farmers must do)
There’s a few interesting bits in this 27 minute video. I think it could be improved by less rambling pot belly stove style and about 15 minutes instead… then again I grew up in a farm town and thats just how it is.
The first segment is about the “Pro Farmer Tour” compared with FDA estimates. Finds lower soy beans and corn yields probable. Notes that this year they have immature crops so need a long growing season ahead, but may not have it.
At about 4:30: He finds that a “Russian Spy Plane” flew a route over the corn belt very similar to that taken by the Pro Farmer Tour. In a prior video he taked about poor outlook for Russian grain and their tendency to buy it up in poor times.
At about 7 minutes he talks about driving around N. Carolina and finding corn at various stages of growth due to the late planting, and how some late planted grows smaller with reduced yields. Some so young they have no ears, yet harvest time is near. Others without enough root growth to thrive in summer heat. So first frost will control. Then discusses hail losses from Nebraska to Canada.
At 10 minutes he turns to Southern Rust showing up. It likes cool damp conditions, so confirms it’s cool.. not heat, causing problems. The corollary to this would be we ought to expect more rust related yield losses in cool times.
By 11:30 he’s talking about the poor year of ’95 was a “lunar year”. Not sure what he means by that. Metonic or what? But evrry 18 years tends to be higher humidity and wetter. Then, that when a lunar year lines up with a solar minimum, it tends to an early frost or freeze year. Nice graph of it at about 12:45 with red splots for early frosts, then at 13:30 or so a plot of lunar year times. He thinks frosts and freezes coukd start about Setember 22. Pretty much shows the sun is the most likely cause. Then finds it more likely to be cold in weaker solar cycles.
At about 17:55 :There’s a graph showing onset of frost for two different time period, A 100 years, divided into first 50 years and second 50 years, and no real difference. How can it be warming if frost still arrive the same times? After the graph about 18:50 again showing early frost vs solar cycles, he disses “Sonny Perdue”. I don’t know who he and probably ought to look it up, but I’m getting sleepy and it is late… but it looks like it’s about a joke about farmers.
He has an interesting stat that we export about 14% and Pro Farmer predicted a 7% drop, so not a lot to export this year.
So corn futures or options? Short ethanol producers and small refiners?