Early Freeze Tied To Solar Minimums

This is an interesting video by Yanasa Ana Ranch.

This is a farmer that looked at the Global Warming Hype and found it lacking. Now he is figuring it out for himself, and predicting crop growing conditions (because that is what all farmers must do)

There’s a few interesting bits in this 27 minute video. I think it could be improved by less rambling pot belly stove style and about 15 minutes instead… then again I grew up in a farm town and thats just how it is.

The first segment is about the “Pro Farmer Tour” compared with FDA estimates. Finds lower soy beans and corn yields probable. Notes that this year they have immature crops so need a long growing season ahead, but may not have it.

At about 4:30: He finds that a “Russian Spy Plane” flew a route over the corn belt very similar to that taken by the Pro Farmer Tour. In a prior video he taked about poor outlook for Russian grain and their tendency to buy it up in poor times.

At about 7 minutes he talks about driving around N. Carolina and finding corn at various stages of growth due to the late planting, and how some late planted grows smaller with reduced yields. Some so young they have no ears, yet harvest time is near. Others without enough root growth to thrive in summer heat. So first frost will control. Then discusses hail losses from Nebraska to Canada.

At 10 minutes he turns to Southern Rust showing up. It likes cool damp conditions, so confirms it’s cool.. not heat, causing problems. The corollary to this would be we ought to expect more rust related yield losses in cool times.

By 11:30 he’s talking about the poor year of ’95 was a “lunar year”. Not sure what he means by that. Metonic or what? But evrry 18 years tends to be higher humidity and wetter. Then, that when a lunar year lines up with a solar minimum, it tends to an early frost or freeze year. Nice graph of it at about 12:45 with red splots for early frosts, then at 13:30 or so a plot of lunar year times. He thinks frosts and freezes coukd start about Setember 22. Pretty much shows the sun is the most likely cause. Then finds it more likely to be cold in weaker solar cycles.

At about 17:55 :There’s a graph showing onset of frost for two different time period, A 100 years, divided into first 50 years and second 50 years, and no real difference. How can it be warming if frost still arrive the same times? After the graph about 18:50 again showing early frost vs solar cycles, he disses “Sonny Perdue”. I don’t know who he and probably ought to look it up, but I’m getting sleepy and it is late… but it looks like it’s about a joke about farmers.

He has an interesting stat that we export about 14% and Pro Farmer predicted a 7% drop, so not a lot to export this year.

So corn futures or options? Short ethanol producers and small refiners?

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in AGW and Weather News Events and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

6 Responses to Early Freeze Tied To Solar Minimums

  1. E.M.Smith says:

    I think this is the relevant lunar cycle:

    http://cyclesresearchinstitute.org/subjects/cycles-astronomy/lunar/

    Things would be simple enough if that were all the variations, but the moon’s orbit is tilted 5 degrees to the ecliptic and precesses in a cycle of 18.6 years so that the moon’s orbital tilt to the earth’s axis varies from 18 to 28 degrees over this period. This variation is important for tidal effects because when the moon is above a higher latitude on earth the once per day tidal component becomes stronger relative to the twice per day component especially at high latitudes.

    Tidal mixing changes so ocean suface temp and evaporation change.

  2. H.R. says:

    Sonny Perdue is the current Secretary of Agriculture. Until the current Trump administration, I’ve never paid much attention to who was in Cabinet positions. It’s different now.

    An early frost wouldn’t surprise me. We’re starting our fall temperature step-down from typical August temperatures already and that usually doesn’t start until the 2nd or 3rd week of September.

    In the year 2001, the second year we were in our current house, I was amazed that my last mowing was in the first week of December. Yes, we had frosts long before that, but the grass never went into it’s Winter state and would recover a bit in the warm 40s (F) and 50s (F) we mostly had all that Fall.

    I’m going to go back and have a look at those charts and see what’s going on in 2001. It could be that the jet stream was just in the right place to block the cold from hitting our area and other places were cold.

  3. H.R. says:

    OK. 2001 was not an early frost year. No contradictions to what I experienced with the lawn.

  4. cdquarles says:

    Speaking of cool, we had another Autumnal blast here. Overnight lows into the mid to upper 50s (average is upper 60s). That didn’t last long and the trough associated with it impacted Hurricane Dorian. As Dorian approaches, a high will build near or over us. The air is dry, though (it is dry season here … mid August through October, with the usual rain resuming in mid-Nov).

    Per the NWS stuff, I discount the reports. Surface conditions will not be what the aircraft see, the dropsonds measure nor what the radars and satellites estimate. All it takes these days is finding somewhere in the storm for that brief period of time where the measurement or estimates fall on the scale, which was developed before many of the techniques used now existed.

  5. Another Ian says:

    HR
    Re previous patterns of weather

    Joe Bastadi “The Climate Chronicles: inconvenient revelations you won’t hear from Al Gore – and others”

    Recommended reading

  6. A C Osborn says:

    With Solar Scientists talking about Cycle 25 being lower than 24 the world could be heading for real trouble, while our politicians wast Trillions on the wrong danger.

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