WT? With BREXIT?

OK, I freely admit British Political Machinations escape me.

I need an Explainer.

Boris says he will toss out his party folks who fail to support him In (some vote).

Parliament are trying to stop Brexit via (some vote) and extending deadline to Janeary 2020 (and how many more?)

Boris is saying a snap election for October 14 if he loses (some vote).

Boris is saying he doesn’t want an election.

Some others are saying Boris wants an election and is just doing a Br’er Rabbit.

What the heck is going on? And what about that prorogue thing?

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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101 Responses to WT? With BREXIT?

  1. Bill in Oz says:

    It’s easy EM. Boris is serious. He’s taking Britain out of the EU – deal or no deal.

    And any one in the Conservative party that tries to hamper that process by voting with Labor & the Liberal Democrat parties, is going to be be ejected from the Conservative party and lose their preselection in the next election.

    They will be gone, politically dead fish, and in the compost. The Conservative Party will be the party of Brexit.

    And as the sample polls are showing, when the general election happens of October 14th. he will be re-elected with a large majority of seats in the House of Commons by an overwhelming majority of voters. The UK voters will back a strong charismatic leader & they are sick & bloody tired of the Remoaner fear campaigns and nonsense.

    Sooooooooo… The Remoaners in the Conservative Party caucus now have a choice : Support the government & it’s policies Or go into the political darkness where they belong.
    It will be interesting to see what they do. But one thing is sure : They are scarred of Boris.

    As for Labor : I suspect that the Brexit party will stand candidates in all the old Labor seats in the Commons where the Brexit feeling has always been strong. I suspect that they will come close to being wiped out.

    Good riddance !

  2. agesilaus says:

    OK my understanding looking in from the outside. Apparently they normally shut down Parliament for some weeks in the fall most years. This is called to an end by the Queen giving a speech and that starts Parliament up again. This period is when they hold party meetings or some such. That is the prorogation. There is something else going on about this Parliament being over 2 years old which is longer than usual I guess.

    Boris Johnson scheduled the Queen’s speech a week or two later than expected and this cut time off the of the oppositions plans to make trouble.

    To top this off, there is a rogue speaker of the house in Parliament that is letting the opposition do things that are plainly illegal in as much as a country that does not have a written Constitution sees these things. The speaker is supposed to be completely non-partisan but this one is not.

    This is like watching cricket that has completely obscure rules.

  3. agesilaus says:

    Oh yeah to add further complications. As Bill points out, BJ is dead serious and effectively so. As I understand it, the party has to put forth a persons name before he can run for Parliament. Since the public voted for Brexit, BJ not unreasonably expects his members to vote for Brexit. So he has informed the members of his party, vote against me, and thus Brexit and you are out on your ear and will not be able to run in the next election as a Tory. And as mentioned the next election could be soon.

    The Torys plus the Brexit party would control an absolute majority of the Parliament according to polls. The Liberals have put their version of our communist pols in power and stand to be wiped out. But their idiot leader just publicly demanded a new vote…

    Remember Cricket match, no Constitution

  4. E.M.Smith says:

    So the Vote is the “screw up the Brexit” vote and if it passes, Boris dumps the traitors and calls a snap election, that he is likely to win. OK, but what happens to Brexit?

  5. E.M.Smith says:

    And what does the speaker have to do with it? He just tells folks to be polite, no?

  6. philjourdan says:

    And folks whine about the EC. At least that one makes sense if you know the name of the country.

  7. agesilaus says:

    If BJ wins the vote then that will throw more of a scare into the EU and maybe they will seriously negotiate, less than two months left. If not the no deal, “crash out”, Brexit happens on 10/31 and everyone may be screwed. EU for sure maybe or maybe not the Brits. President Trump will jump in on 11/1/19 with a interim trade deal and probably defense and other agreements.

    May the last PM dilly dallied around for 3 years and produced no agreement. Probably never planned to have one but wanted to cancel Brexit. But as it stands no sovereign country could accept the Irish ‘Backstop’. That turns over control of trade to the EU in perpetuity.

  8. p.g.sharrow says:

    Serioso quotes. democrats, Journal, Lesbian, liberal, politics as a real British opinion of President Trump. Must be the same Brit that wrote the Steel dosser

  9. gareth says:

    If you haven’t already, have a look at Richard North’s EUReferendum site for fact based analysis. You won’t get much sense or understanding from the UK press. Irish Times is better.
    Although Johnson is talking about getting a revised deal (the original deal having been negotiated and agreed between UK and EU – but UK MPs refused to ratify), this is not procedurally possible for the EU in the timescale, even if they wanted to. Plus, he hasn’t actually put forward an alternative. And a no-deal exit is the default position unless unanimously agreed otherwise by UK, EU & EU27 states (see Art 50) – UK parliament can vote against it but it still happens. The only options are Revoke, agree May’s deal or drop out with no deal.
    My guess is that Johnson is only interested in winning an election and in being Prime minister. The fate of the country doesn’t enter in the equation much. So if he can position as having tried to get a new deal but the unreasonable EU has prevented it, and engineer an election (would need to provoke a vote of no confidence) soon after a no-deal Brexit, he will get the support of the Brexit party voters and win a good majority…

  10. Graeme No.3 says:

    Then PM David Cameron made a pledge in the previous but one election to hold a referendum. He
    was worried by the surge in support for UKIP (then headed by Farage) which could have cost him the election. He honoured a pledge he’d made after winning the election by a substantial margin, never expecting voters to want to leave the EU.
    During the referendum campaign just about every leading politician was against leaving (not Boris) along with all the foreign leaders (including your ex-Prez) he could rustle up, expressed FUD (and double FUD) about leaving. Despite this a large turnout of voters (over 70%) went 52% to 48% in favour of leaving. Cameron promptly resigned, saying he couldn’t undertake the negotiations whole heartedly. Theresa May became PM despite being against leaving (but low key) but promised to negotiate an exit. She then called an unnecessary election and nearly lost, only regaining office by forming a coalition with the Ulster Unionists.
    She negotiated very, very badly with the EU. The deal she got was quite unacceptable even to many now wanting to remain, it was voted down by big margins 3? times. Basically it left the UK still in the EU but as a door mat. As the House of Commons struggled to come up with something May was eventually forced out of office (she had been trying to stay until the Party Conference (end Sept).
    There was a rush to be PM which came down (after a series of votes to cut numbers) to 2 candidates who were voted on by the members of the Conservative Party, who chose Boris overwhelmingly. He had campaigned strongly for leaving the EU.
    Among other miscalculations May had set a deadline to get out, but this was extended by the Remainers, to Oct.31, no doubt expecting to be able to keep extending the time. They are hoping that a second referendum will vote to stay (standard EU practice “keep voting people until you get it right”.)
    Meanwhile Nigel Farage quit UKIP as some (politically strange) people joined and founded BREXIT to push progress. At the recent election for members of the European Parliament they won the most seats (it is a talking shop with no power and ignored by the bureaucrats of the EU unless they have to sit there while Farage cuts them into ribbons). Boris knows that if he doesn’t deliver Brexit then he would lose the next election, which, with a quarter of his Party prepared to walk out on him if he doesn’t, could come quickly.
    His problem is that roughly another quarter don’t want to leave and they are being helped by Speaker Bercow who sets the rules (often against a century of practice). Bercow is strongly pro Remain, to the point that he may face competition at the next election (British practice has been to not oppose a neutral Speaker).
    So Boris could be facing an election anyway, so he isn’t worried if the Remainers force one. He thinks they may lose their seats (anywhere outside London or Scotland (where they haven’t any numbers anyway). The Labour Party (the official opposition) is led by someone who makes AOC seem rational and can’t seem to decide what to do. If there is an election Labour could well lose lots of seats in the Midlands and North which has been their main territory for decades, and quite a few to the minor Liberal party (which is exactly what you think liberal means).
    So for Boris it is “damn the torpedoes, full steam ahead”. He expects to win through.

  11. Paul, Somerset says:

    The Speaker is way more than someone who just tells MPs to be polite. He has total control over what gets debated in parliament and which bills are voted on to become law. By convention it has been someone of unimpeachable integrity and with complete lack of bias. Bercow is neither. He has ripped up every convention in order to “THTOP BREKTHIT!”

    He holds the reins of power and cannot be removed by any means.

    Beyond that, what is happening? This is my take, but events are changing by the minute:

    1 Remainers with the Speaker’s help will pass a law preventing a No Deal Brexit.

    2 Boris will ask MPs to vote for a General Election, so that the electorate can decide whether they want to vote in a new set of MPs, who can tear up that law and leave on 31 October, come what may.

    3 Boris won’t get enough votes to allow a general election.

    4 OK, he says, I’ve given you your chance to resolve this matter democratically via the ballot box. You’ve refused, because you know the people are not on your side, so I won’t enact your anti-No Deal legislation, and we leave on 31 Oct. anyway.

    There are plenty of loopholes allowing any government to refuse to implement the kind of law the remainers are seeking to impose on it. By asking for an election, and being denied one, Boris gains more democratic legitimacy when he chooses to exploit those loopholes.

  12. jdseanjd says:

    Karabar’s quadrant ref is good.

    I’ll add that I was most surprised and delighted at the 52% vs 48% Brexit vote 3 YEARS AGO, June 2016. It was a slim but clear majority. Since then I ‘ve watched in dismay as it has become obvious that a clear majority of our parliament want to stay in the now Fascist EU.

    Former PM TheArse May’s previous “deal” was an abject surrender drawn up in Germany, allegedly. It meant UK would lose all votes, but continue to pay in full towards EU costs, & would need the consent of all 27 other members to leave. As UK is the second largest contributor behind Germany, this would never happen. It amounted to a prison sentence which the rather dim Treason May tried to get through Parliament 3 times & failed.

    The Tory twats got the fright of their lives when Nigel Farage’s brand new Brexit party wiped the floor with them in EU elections. The largest party now in the EU is Farage’s Brexit party, dedicated to leaving. Huge Grin. I am hoping that Boris is sincere in his determination for Brexit, but he is surrounded by traitors of all colours.

    Boris himself is a man who would not know the truth if it hit him smack in the face. A brazen self-opportunist, he is not interested in UK, just himself. He was a dreadful Foreign secretary who managed to annoy everyone he met. He cynically portrays himself as a buffoon, but is not. He’s a cold calculator with a bright mind but zero morals. The perfect politician. When Mayor of London he quashed an inquiry into child sexual abuse by our elites on the grounds that it was a waste of money: “spaffing money up the wall” was the Eton expression he used. The quality of the creature is not difficult to determine. ALL depends on who is paying him.

    Behind Speaker Bercow’s seat sits the real power in the Brit Parliament: The Remembrancer.
    The Remembrancer is part of a team of 6 lawyers always present to represent the interests of our Banksters. UK is the most heavily Rothschilded country on this planet. Perhaps our Bankster Masters have concluded the EU is a failing experiment towards a One World Govt, who knows?
    Of the 650 muppets who comprise our legislators, only 5 had the brains & backbone to vote against the disastrous Climate Change Bill. The EU they are so keen to remain in is an anti-democratic organisation which works, on the lobbying system, in favour of the multi-nationals & in oppression of individuals, for whom “austerity” is prescribed as the formula to restore an economy collapsed 2008 by Bankster failures. The stupidity & viciousness, it burns. EU is so corrupt it has not been able to get its accounts audited for over 21 years, but the pay & perks for politicians, MEPs, are fabulous.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/kick-bankers-man-remembrancer-out-1874811

    We live in the most interesting times.
    John Doran.

  13. Graeme No.3 says:

    @John Doran
    Correct me if I am wrong but Speaker Bercow might face a Vote of No Confidence and would have to resign if that passed.
    Alternately he could face opposition at an election. I know the Parties don’t oppose the Speaker usually, but he is an unusual Speaker way out of order. Since he has a country seat which voted for Brexit, having the BREXIT party campaign against him wouldn’t break any conventions and would probably see him tossed out.

  14. H.R. says:

    Graeme No3: “The Labour Party (the official opposition) is led by someone who makes AOC seem rational […]”

    Now that’s something we can relate to on this side of the pond. It’s an object lesson for us Yanks that stupid, once elected, keeps getting reelected and rises in power. Not good.

    Perhaps things will be different this time in AOC’s district. As one of her first acts of consequence right out of the gate, she was responsible for killing a deal with Amazon that would have brought thousands of jobs to her district. That pissed off a lot of people in her district. With luck, she’s one and done.

    Meanwhile, I’ll keep reading the reports and analyses here from the Remoaner-afflicted faction. Brexit is your last chance for British sovereignty, as I’m interpreting events. Good luck comes from hard work, so keep speaking up and speaking out. I wish you all good luck.

  15. beththeserf says:

    You do not do a deal with the Devil or with the EU.

  16. E.M.Smith says:

    @All:

    Thanks for the various perspectives, they are helpful.

    @karabar:

    Yes, that’s a rather full treatment of what has happened. Not too much about what is to come, but the pointer to “15 possible outcomes” likely explains why…

    @Serioso:

    Do you specialize in the whiff and a miss? First off, the question was about the machinations of British Parliament, not the British Mind. Second, Mum was a Brit. I was raised as a small British Gentleman as a child. Watched every British film and TV show I could get. 1/2 my relatives are British. I need no help understanding “The British mind” as in large part I have one. (Though in later years I learned to function as a boorish American when needed). Then, finally, some screed dissing the POTUS has no bearing nor relevance (and less truth and validity…). What hasn’t been said by the “Orange Man Bad” mob about “Orange Man Bad”? Nothing…

    So nice attempt at Troll Bait, but mostly a waste of space.

    @P.G.:

    Gee, you did it in 2 lines…

    @Paul, Somerset:

    4 OK, he says, I’ve given you your chance to resolve this matter democratically via the ballot box. You’ve refused, because you know the people are not on your side, so I won’t enact your anti-No Deal legislation, and we leave on 31 Oct. anyway.

    That’s an intriguing point. I knew there was a suit over the prior exit date and that potentially Boris could just “stop defending the suit” and say the UK left already… but there are ways the PM can just ignore an act of Parliament? Hmmm….

    I presume this is stuff like “send it to legal review prior to implementation” or announce finding no enabling mechanism so just not acting on it (then wait to have your opinion overturned in court but by then be out of the EU) or similar? Or are there means to have a law out of Parliament but not yet on the “books” and stuff in procedural delays?

    @jdseanjd:

    “Remembrancer”, now that was a lump of insight into why things run as they do…

  17. agesilaus says:

    I’ve seen another suggestion. The Parliament passes a law asking for an extension. BJ allows it to go to the EU meeting where it would require an unanimous decision, all the EU leaders vote yes, BJ votes no. Motion fails.

  18. E.M.Smith says:

    Watching Parliament on Sky UK. Corbin is a piece of work. Boris seems straight forward, but he clearly IS a politician. How Corbin can vilify a trade deal with the USA as evil is beyond me. Just more “Orange Man Bad”.

    @Agesilaus:

    Oh, that’s a good one! Who sets the UK vote in the EU? Is it really the PM?

  19. E.M.Smith says:

    Sky reporting conservatives have lost their working majority in Parluament as Phillip Lee defects to Lib Dems. Impact?

  20. YMMV says:

    “British Political Machinations escape me”

    Shakespeare wrote quite a few plays about that. He didn’t write GoT. Politics is always politics. Same old stories, with minor variations in the “rules” it is played by. With Brexit, there are those who do not want Brexit and there are those (at least one person) who want Corbyn to become PM. They team up to prevent BJ from doing anything; BJ calls the shots to prevent them from doing anything to prevent him from doing anything. The rules may be obscure like Cricket, but the game is more like Rugby. Which is also obscure — why anyone would play it. Whatever game it is, it is fascinating to watch and it gets the audience very involved. I wonder if they have riots when their team wins or loses?

    BJ wants Brexit, unlike others who say they do but only with a deal. It was clear from the very beginning that EU was adamant that first Brexit, then we talk about a deal. Which was absurd, but they meant it. It was EU’s best (only?) bargaining chip. It worked. The Brit MSM is so hyped that no-deal is a disaster, they made it so whether it needed to be or not. Britain will get over Brexit. Break on through to the other side.

    It’s funny that the no-deal opponents want more time, knowing that they couldn’t get a deal before and they still won’t be able to get a deal. BJ is their only hope!

    The clock is ticking. Overtime? Sudden death overtime? Pull the goalie? (that’s a hockey move)

    Go team!

  21. jdseanjd says:

    @ Graeme no.3
    Yep Bercow is not the impartial referee of Parliamentary business he should in theory be.
    Best suggestion I’ve read for him is star attraction in a dwarf throwing contest.
    The future? A very murky crystal ball.

    The one thing that’s become clear this past 3 years is that virtually none of our MPs have the slightest interest in Democracy, whatever they prate. MPs, if they value their careers, vote their party line, with the 3-line Party Whip system enforcing this.

    That’s what makes the present bunfight fascinating: both the Labour (DEM) & Conservative (REP) parties are split down the middle. Corbyn, a lifelong Marxist Moron & steadfast anti-EU speaker now pretends to be pro-EU because he’s afraid to do otherwise. He does not control his party & fears a huge number of his MPs would demote him from Party Leadership. Totally unelectable in a General Election, I think he sees this mess as his only chance to grab power & has most generously offered himself as interim PM once Boris is deposed.

    The Conservative party picture is just as muddled. The next General Election should be great crack.

    Boris SEEMS to have surrounded himself with a staunch leaver Cabinet, but will he prevail? Who knows? I hope so. I’ve had a bellyful of Nazi bureaucrats who want to dictate everything down to the length & curve of our bananas. The air reeks, to me, of brown envelopes stuffed with cash.
    So, no predictions, I’m afraid, from the UK asylum, but I do have a stock of popcorn.
    JD.

  22. rhoda klapp says:

    IMHO they can pass any law they like but if it includes a constraint that the executive branch (the government) must do such and such the legislative branch is going beyond their mandate. Simply put they can’t demand a course of action from the PM which he doesn’t agree with. He does not have to put such a bill up for royal assent because it undermines the Royal Prerogative, which I think is equivalent to executive privilege in the US. Remember that 80 years ago today a PM declared war without seeking any approval from parliament. That is the Royal Prerogative. So Boris can ignore any such bill, although there will be a s***storm if he does.

  23. Steven Fraser says:

    @EM: Farage threw a spanner in today, when he made his support (and his party’s electoral help ) contingent on Boris’ disavowal of any deal at all with the EU. Verrrrry Interrrrresting. (shades of colonel Klink)

  24. p.g.sharrow says:

    This is getting interesting, One of Boris’ MPs switched sides so he no longer has a majority. and Nigel has him by the hair on the back of his neck ” Stand up Straight BOY!”……
    Lead or follow but don’t get in the way! Boris can be Prime Minister or Nigel Farage will have to be it. Brexit will happen, The EU is dying…pg

  25. p.g.sharrow says:

    Guess I should have added, The Queen has decreed it! LOL.
    The Irish have never really wanted to be a part of Great Britain, time to cut them lose.

  26. E.M.Smith says:

    Parliament just voted yes on the hearing of the proposed law tomorrow.

  27. E.M.Smith says:

    Watching Parliament live (on ITV via Roku) has convinced me Parluament is incompetent. Some individuals have clue, but a lot of it is just spoiled brats prattling and another large part is abusive games. On all sides.

  28. Graeme No.3 says:

    A comment by Gavin in The Australian may supply some figures.
    “Here are some numbers you CAN rely on:
    64% of UK constituencies voted to leave EU.
    247 Conservative constituencies voted to leave EU, against 80 voting remain.
    148 Labour constituencies voted to leave EU, against 84 voting remain.
    The Conservative MP who just defected to the Liberal Democrats, Phillip Lee is MP for Bracknell constituency. Bracknell voted to leave EU by a margin 58.333%.
    That tells me that there are a LOT of very angry constituents in voter land. And I will bet you they are waiting for those MP’s who represent leave voting constituencies but who have spent the last 2 years trying to prevent it with baseball bats.
    I think we can expect two things on October 15th:
    1. A lot of media outlets and pundits amazed at a Boris landslide, (because they don’t look outside of London for voter sentiment).
    2. A lot of remainer former MPs looking for a job!”

    The Remain vote is heavily concentrated in London and Scotland. The latter is very dependent on subsidies so any talk of succession is merely hot air. Besides the EU doesn’t want them (partly because the UK leaving would be a blow to their Budget with at least 20 of the 28 also dependent on subsidies to maintain their standard of living).

  29. E.M.Smith says:

    So with (whatever it was… 328 to 301?) that implies similar numbers for the vote on the actual bill.
    Aftrr which Boris calls an election for October 14. What happens then?

    Does Boris pocket the bill?
    Does it all go on hold until the election?

  30. philjourdan says:

    @Paul, Somerset – your description of the PM sounds like a combination of the Speaker of the House and President over here. I guess that is why our founders made it 2 positions.

  31. Steve C says:

    Now the traitor class have chosen to make it People vs. Parliament, by apparently making No-Deal “illegal”. Johnson has rightly gone ahead with his threat to throw non-compliant Tory MPs out of the party, so he *certainly* has no majority now.

    It will be interesting, come the election whenever it is, to see a lot of the Tory “Big Beasts” like Kenneth Clarke out on the streets, since (as noted above) most MPs of all stripes come from Brexit-voting areas. I’d like to hope the [expletives deleted] have terminated their political careers for once and all, given their seriously bad attitude towards democracy.

    And can Boris even call an election? He needs 60% support in the House to do so, so at the moment it’s an impasse, since the traitor class who have seized power are agin it. They just had Kenneth Clarke on the radio – “I don’t recognise the party I joined”. Well, Kenny baby, I don’t even see a government here in my country at all, and it’s people like you who are responsible for that. Good-bye and good riddance.

    God knows how they are going to resolve this, or even to proceed. It would be nice if they tried democracy and actually implemented the will of the people, but on present showing there’s not much hope of that.

  32. Another Ian says:

    I wonder if the last ray of sanity here will come via the Queen – if possible?

    Brings to mind that 007 cartoon with the punchline “The whole bloody lot”

  33. A C Osborn says:

    Steve, never in my life have I seen such treachery from MPs of all parties.
    MPs of all parties blocking the will of the people.
    This latest bill ties Johnsons hands behind his back during any attempt to get a new deal.
    I am totally disgusted by all of those MPs that have betrayed their constituents, they should all have been deselected long ago.

  34. A C Osborn says:

    Graeme No.3 says: 3 September 2019 at 11:05 pm
    I don’t think the Brexit anger is sufficient,too much apathy, if it was they should have deselected all those MPs that have not been supporting their constituents and apart from a few cases it hasn’t been happening.

  35. Graeme No.3 says:

    If the Remainers force Boris to ask the EU for an extension or a new deal by a vote in the Commons (they’ve rejected the offered one 3 times).
    Most likely Boris will delay it in the Lords or even delay giving it to the Queen to approve (until the Prorogue takes effect early next week when unpassed bills lapse).
    Or the EU ruling bureaucrats may not agree (on the grounds that there is one on offer).
    Otherwise one of the Countries in the EU might veto such, long enough for the Brexit date and crash out. (Poland, Hungary, Italy or Portugal may oblige).
    In the meantime Labour (through it leader) has said that it would vote for an election after such bill or bills are passed through the Commons. Since they would face annihilation in their homeland you will see what I mean about AOC being comparatively more rational.
    Besides they aren’t ready for an election, and 2 weeks will be spent in their annual Party Conference (as also the other 2 main parties).
    I see Boris delaying until Brexit is inevitable then somehow forcing an election for early November.
    The Remainers have been distracted from a chance to demand a second referendum (in the hope of a different answer).

  36. E.M.Smith says:

    You know, in pondering this mess, I am unable to think of a way it could be made more of a mess if you tried.

  37. Bill in Oz says:

    The London Sun has an accurate blow by blow narrative of this here : https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9858895/jeremy-corbyn-bottles-boris-election-challenge-crunch-no-deal-vote/

    It even gives a complete list of the Conservative party MP’s who voted against their own government. I’m sure this is to make sure the British people know exactly who the traitors were stopping BREXIT.

    I suggest that they only reason they will now oppose an early election is save their own skins. They will all be hung out to dry when ever it comes anyway.

  38. Simon Derricutt says:

    I haven’t commented on this so far because so far it doesn’t make a lot of sense. Get the popcorn out and see what happens, because I don’t see a way to make a solid prediction of what will happen.

    I don’t trust Boris at all, and I couldn’t throw him very far either. On the other hand, it does look like he’s trying to keep his election promises and it also looks like a majority of the MPs are trying to go against the referendum result and keep the UK in the EU one way or another. John Bercow is using the power he has to control what Parliament talks about in a way that goes against the unwritten constitution, since he is supposed to be neutral but instead is pushing strongly for Remain and against any real Brexit.

    At the moment it looks like the Remainers are in with a very good chance of getting their way. Either Article 50 will get withdrawn, or Mrs. May’s “deal” that keeps the UK subject to all the EU restrictions for an indeterminate period will be re-submitted and passed, or there will be an indefinite extension to A50 until such time as those things happen. Given the FUD about what will happen if the UK does actually leave without a deal, and the cliff-edge that the EU deliberately inserted by refusing to even talk about trade deals after Brexit until the UK had actually left and the prospect of such a trade deal requiring at least 7 years of negotiations and then requiring the agreement of all member states, it’s quite possible that a second referendum would result in a decision to remain, or even if not that time then a few more years of delay and a third referendum would surely fix the problem and they’d get a majority to Remain after all.

    So it’s starting to look like the money invested in anti-Brexit publicity has paid off. The EU will retain one of its main contributors and the UK will remain a vassal-state that will have to accept the laws made in Brussels. Since businesses will have no certainty of what is going to happen, the longer the uncertainty continues the harder it gets for the average UK citizen.

    The wording and the choices given in a referendum can make a large difference in the result. Last time, it was a choice of stay or leave. Next one could be a choice of 3 options; remain in EU, leave with a deal (basically Mrs. May’s deal), or leave without a deal. Fairly obviously, Remain would win that one, since the Leave votes would be split and the country is still fairly evenly split as regards whether or not to remain.

    It has emerged that Michel Barnier was always aware that a no-deal Brexit was off the table, which gave him a very strong negotiation position. Also the refusal to negotiate on a trade deal before the exit had happened further strengthened his hand. This was (or at least should have been) obvious from the start, and the UK should have been preparing for a no-deal situation from the start and, in fact, should have simply said they weren’t going to wait the full 2 years given by A50 since there was no point in trying to negotiate a good deal. Without the knowledge that the UK was leaving, deal or not, there was no prospect of getting a good deal. The current legal moves to prevent leaving without a deal will again put all the power on the EU’s side, and will thus stop a real exit.

    The next General Election will be interesting. I’d expect quite a few MPs to be voted out for their support of the anti-Brexit cabal. I’m not sure who will pick up those votes, though (not a wide choice in parties and policies, if you look closely). I’d expect the Brexit Party to stand against John Bercow, and to win. One way of getting rid of a Speaker who isn’t actually neutral. Possibly a large number of long-standing MPs will lose their seats, though, and since that likely means a lot of new MPs who don’t know the ropes and how to get things done, then the actual power will be concentrated in the hands of those experienced MPs who keep their seats.

    On a personal level, since I’m English and have lived in France for the last 15 years, it’s easier for me if the UK stays in the EU. It would also have been easier for me if the UK had dropped the Pound and gone to the Euro. For the younger people in the UK, though, it would be better for the UK to be out and keeping the Pound is a major advantage (once you take that you’re locked in). I look at the youth unemployment in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece and see that it’s also heading that way in the UK. Despite that, about 3 million EU citizens live and work in the UK and around 1 million UK citizens live in the EU (quite a large percentage retired, like me, since it’s sunnier, but quite a few working too). There’s thus obviously an advantage to workers in the UK, and more jobs available – we must have been doing something better than the EU does, despite the cock-ups. When you have a choice between two bad options, you choose the least-worst, and so I’d choose Brexit. At least then you can vote out bad politicians, whereas in the EU your vote doesn’t count because the MEPs have no real power over what happens – it’s all window-dressing as regards democracy.

    One of the things I can’t work out is who gains. Cui bono?

  39. E.M.Smith says:

    @Bill in Oz:

    I’ve been watch Parliament livd today. I can confirm the qoutes in ths article ard accurate.

    Ni ebacking matter in the article too, tweetz anc all.

  40. E.M.Smith says:

    Who gains? The big money globalists who can buy the laws they want and use their banks to raid the pockets of citizens in all the subject countries via taxation to pay national debt. Who benefited from Cyprus? Greece? That’s them.. Who benefits from thwarting Brexit? London and her bankers…and those they have bought.

  41. Simon Derricutt says:

    EM – I figured it would have to be something like that, but it’s good to have the opinions of others as well. These legal challenges take a lot of money and effort (see Gina Miller’s new lawsuit where she’s being joined by John Major) and *someone* (maybe Soros) must be bankrolling that.

  42. YMMV says:

    E.M.: “I am unable to think of a way it could be made more of a mess if you tried”
    Can’t imagine. But it could be worse — Corbyn could be PM.

    quotes from
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/09/jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-threat-most-important-us-ally/

    “In U.S. terms, Corbyn is a mashup of Bernie Sanders and the Squad, mixing orthodox socialist economics with a hostility to U.S. foreign policy and Israel.”

    “His first wife reports that he never took her out to dinner, preferring to eat beans straight from a can to save time.”

    “Corbyn’s past, and present, is littered with valentines to left-wing thugs. He cozied up to the IRA in the 1980s when it was trying to decapitate the British government by bombing.”

    “But Britain in the coming weeks will be faced with unquestionably momentous choices: Whether to take back its full sovereignty from the EU, and whether to throw in with a dangerous radical.”

    Ending on a positive note, maybe the EU will reject a time extension. They (Vichy France and Germany) clearly do not like the UK, but they do like the UK’s money. Hard choice.

    In the long term, the EU is doomed anyway.

  43. Ed Forbes says:

    If the EU heads of states have to be unanimous in granting an extention, then Boris votes no for the UK. Seems simple enough.

  44. A C Osborn says:

    I am still not convinced that Johnson has actually tried to get a no deal Brexit.
    The key for me was why did he not prorogue parliament completely, thus leaving no time for any of this treasonous crap we have seen over the last 2 days.
    It could all just be “theatre”, “look folks I tried my best but all these nasty MPs thwarted me”.
    The only other reason for taking this route was to demonstrate to the public just how bad the opposition and some of his own party are.

  45. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like the bill passed, so the fat’s in the fire now.

  46. p.g.sharrow says:

    It’s a TRAP !
    Boris wants the turncoats in his party to declare themselves so he can turn them out.
    Too bad Trump can’t do the same with our RINOs…pg

  47. A C Osborn says:

    p.g.sharrow says: 4 September 2019 at 7:13 pm
    It may be a trap, but it has been sprung the wrong way.
    He has totally lost control of the “No Deal” option and later will also lose the option of a general Election. We are going to be stuck with the EU for as long as they wish to hang it out, or until we actually get to the next GE.
    The will of the people has been totally ignored.

  48. E.M.Smith says:

    It just amazes me how much shouting about immediate doom and destruction is being performed all over WTO Terms, under which most of the world trades with the EU and each other.

    It is small single digits tariffs in almost all cases. Entirely benign.

    So are they really that stupid, or is it a performance theatre lie?

    That’s really all the choices. Stupidity or lie for effect.

  49. E.M.Smith says:

    Vote to hold an election failed, but had about 298 for 56 against, so fell short oc majority needed…

    And next?…

  50. E.M.Smith says:

    The Porogue was stated as starting from Sept. 9 to12. Who chooses the exact day?

  51. p.g.sharrow says:

    I’m not sure that the trap was sprung the wrong way. While Commons voted for the deal option or make the no deal option illegal , The Lords also has to vote for that Deal. There is a filibuster set up in that house to run out the clock on that. Then everyone has to go home for 5 weeks, Come back to a No Deal Brexit dead line in mid October without time to do anything about it, and the EU without the time or inclination to bend. So we shall see if Boris is as smart as he thinks he is, or the GEBs pull another rabbit out of their hats to “keep” the Brits enslaved to the EU bureaucrats. I doubt that they want to risk a general vote on that…pg

  52. Bill in Oz says:

    This is almost as amusing as as Goons Show ! It’s a pity that the Remoaners are so bloody out of touch with the people.

    Re what happens next EM ? Well the script is being ‘crafted’ as we watch. So nothing is certain.

    But the Commons will go into recess next week The bill passed by the Remoaners in the Commons will be filibustered forever.. And the Queen can on the advice of the PM not give her Royal Assent.

    If that happened the only solution would be a general election. I suspect that the PM’s hands might be bound by the law saying 60% of the MP’s have to vote in favour of an early election. But the Queen ? She can dissolve the Commons at her Royal Prerogative.

  53. Graeme No.3 says:

    E.M.S. the government set the days, also the day of return. MPs take most of September off as the 3 major parties all hold their annual Party Conferences in sequence then. Theoretically parliament could vote to sit after the prorogue period, but cutting into the Conference time would get the party members furious. In any case I don’t think that any laws they pass would be acceptable, as parliament doesn’t officially resart until the Queen’s Address on October 14. (They have to allow time to search the basements in parliament house in case some latter day Guy Fawkes has smuggled in barrels of gunpowder as in 1605).

    Recycling being fashionable I look forward to the old newspaper headline slightly changed.
    Mental fog in Parliament, Europe cut off.

  54. E.M.Smith says:

    Then there’s this, Finland saying no…

    https://trib.com/news/world/the-latest-finland-says-little-appetite-for-brexit-delay/article_c3c8f98a-f541-5c51-901d-9b2c313c7ea2.html

    AP
    The Latest: Finland says little appetite for Brexit delay
    Sep 4, 2019 Updated 33 min ago

    LONDON (AP) — The Latest on Britain’s bid to leave the European Union (all times local):

    4:15 p.m.

    Finland’s prime minister, whose country currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Union, says there isn’t widespread support within the bloc to grant Britain a further Brexit extension.

    Antti Rinne told reporters at the Finnish Parliament that the bloc would require “some sort of future scenario … to underline that something sensible could start happening.”

    He said there is “no sense” in granting Britain an extension to the current Brexit date of Oct. 31 “that seems to lead nowhere, and I don’t think it’s possible to find majority support (among the 27 other EU members) for such an extension.”

    Some of them are waiting for their extra seats and influence.

  55. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting read from General Mattis regarding President Obama and his failure to act responsibly to provocations.

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/act-of-war-mattis-says-obamas-inept-response-to-cafe-milano-bomb-plot-emboldened-iran

  56. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ooops that last post was intended for WOOD thread

  57. YMMV says:

    Bill in Oz: “But the Queen ? She can dissolve the Commons at her Royal Prerogative.”

    Not anymore, it seems.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011
    “Apart from the automatic dissolution in anticipation of a general election (whether held early or not), section 3(2) provides that “Parliament cannot otherwise be dissolved”. The Act thus removes the traditional royal prerogative to dissolve Parliament,[13] and repeals the Septennial Act 1715 as well as references in other Acts to the royal prerogative. The royal prerogative to prorogue parliament – that is, to end a parliamentary session – is not affected by the Act.[14]”

    Latest reports are that the no-deal bill will pass the House of Lords.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49588186
    “The bill, presented by Labour MP Hilary Benn, says the prime minister will have until 19 October to either pass a deal in Parliament or get MPs to approve a no-deal Brexit.
    Once this deadline has passed, he will have to request an extension to the UK’s departure date to 31 January 2020.
    Unusually, the bill stipulates the wording of the letter Mr Johnson would have to write to the president of the European Council.
    If the EU responds by proposing a different date, the PM will have two days to accept that proposal.”

    The UK can ask, but will the EU say no?
    https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f
    “There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”
    Diplomats said that, despite the bloc’s willingness in principle to consider an extension, France and others were likely to be tough on the details, wanting clear explanations from Britain as to how more time could lead to a positive outcome, and legal guarantees that the UK government would not disrupt EU business.

    Yeah, what’s going to happen in three months? Other than the inevitable early election?

  58. jdseanjd says:

    Extraordinary chaos in UK Parliament, unprecedented since the 1640s civil war, which was funded by ‘European financiers’ to get William of Orange on the Brit throne & establish the Bank of England, 1694.

    Basically the EU is a Bankster plot, a stepping stone toward a totallitarian One World Govt, but it seems to be failing.
    France has been faced with huge street demonstrations every weekend since last November.
    They are protesting the “austerity” they have been subjected to (fuel taxes etc etc) to supposedly cure an economy broken by Bankster frauds. Eyes have been shot out & bones broken by vicious police action on the orders of Bankster boy micronapoleon, Macron.
    This does not make the MSM, of course.
    Italy is showing signs of being fed up of the dictatorial EU, which they see as too partial towards France. EU recently made a grab for Italy’s gold.
    Germany is sliding toward a recession, expected early next year.
    In short, the EU is a failing mess, UK is its 2nd largest contributor & every year we buy more from EU than it buys from UK: they need us way more than we need them.
    These realities are firmly ignored by MSM & the majority of MPs.
    Those stuffed brown envelopes fly thick & fast.

    Our Brit Parliament blocking a no deal Brexit is turkeys voting for Christmas, lunacy.
    It’s like a bloke walking into a car showroom announcing “I’m here to buy a car. I’m not leaving without one.” He does not get the same deal as if he said “I’ve been to the US trade deal showroom & I’m on my way to the WTO showroom, what’s your best deal?”

    I watch the Punch & Judy show antics in our joke of a Parliament with considerable dismay

    1955 book, on the influence of money on global affairs: Pawns In The Game, by William Guy Carr, a WWII Canadian naval intelligence officer. Can be read free online:
    http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/pawns_inthegame/pawns_contents.htm

    Rothschild + 12 pals plan for global domination, 1773, is in chapter 3, on The French Revolution.
    John Doran.

  59. Bill in Oz says:

    @YMMV
    I don’t like relying on Wikipedia. I suspect that a close reading of the Act of 2011 restricts the power of the PM to ask for a general election but doe snot restrict the Sovereign’s prerogatives. Why do I say this ? Well the Queen has the royal prerogative to not assent to any law which enfringes her own royal position as head of state.

    Secondly the Wikipedia offer Boris a way out : “The two most important situations where a general election can be earlier are a vote of no confidence in the government, …..in the House of Commons.”
    I’m sure that someone can be helped to put a motion of no confidence. And with a few ( accidental ) absences or abstentions among the Tories.. And “Hey presto it’s ON !”

    And Boris will win hands down.

    Unless of course we see the bizarre situation of the opposition and the traitors voting confidence in the Conservative . government to save their own dopey skins. A plot that was never ever seen on Monty Python or the Goons !
    Something to enjoy laughing at if it happens !

  60. beththeserf says:

    Think this links in with where we’re at, alack, guvuhmint imperfection versus market imperfection,
    \https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdBn7MUM3Yo *

    Go Brexit, majority vote of the cits. in a democratic referendum.

  61. A C Osborn says:

    Bill in Oz says: 5 September 2019 at 10:03 am
    it may be amusing from where you are sitting in Aus, but for us Brexiteers it is anything but funny.
    I am absolutely furious.

  62. beththeserf says:

    Link to my comment above.

  63. E.M.Smith says:

    @Bill In Oz:

    Well, commence to laughing!

    It was somewhat surreal to watch Parliament with Boris chiding Labor as “the first time Opposition has ever expressed confidence in Government”… or some such. Boris tried, but could not get a vote of no confidence.

    @A.C. Osborn:

    I’m not quite furious, but strongly saddened. A large chunk of my family are in Britain… Then there is just the intense dismay that so many in Parliament are being ‘willfully blind” to the advantages of a Global Market instead of an EU Satrap. I just can’t see why… (Maybe it IS those ‘thick brown envelopes’ but I’d like to think folks were more moral than that…)

    I mean, My God Man, they treat a 5% WTO tariff as a nuclear attack from all sides. It’s NOTHING. VAT is 4 times as big an issue / impact.

    @Beththeserf:

    Ah, a video to watch! (Always like Sowell…)

  64. E.M.Smith says:

    Sky News is stating that Rees-Mogg (and showed him saying it) stated Parliament will NOT be prorogued until AFTER the straight jacket bill is approved by the Lords and given Royal Assent.

    I thought someone said “Government” determined when the Prorogue started, not Parliament…

    Then, Sky is all over the story that Jo Johnson (brother to Boris) has resigned as MP over the stress between “family loyalty and what is best for the Nation”… asserting this shows Boris is evil not just that brothers often do not agree…

    It is looking like the only hope for freedom is to get some country in the EU to give the boot…

  65. Simon Derricutt says:

    The crazy thing about taking No Deal off the table is that it was always obvious that the EU cannot and will not offer a deal that is advantageous to the UK, since if they did then other countries would be leaving the EU. They even stated at the start that the deal they would offer would not be as good as the one the UK already gets as part of the EU.

    It’s also obvious that businesses in the UK have set up their structure to be optimum under the current structures, and that any sudden change will result in loss of efficiency until the new situation has been adjusted to. Thus car manufacturers in the UK rely on suppliers in the EU and just-in-time deliveries without a tariff applied at each border crossing, since it’s been cheaper to do things that way despite the costs of transport. Some parts of cars may have made several such trips as components or subassemblies before the car is complete and ready to be shipped. Volvo panels may be made in the UK, shipped to Sweden for QA, then shipped back to the UK to be sold onwards. Some things seem crazy, but happen anyway because the relevant competences and tools have only been in one place and there seemed no need to replicate them elsewhere.

    The sudden change (cliff-edge) is thus bound to cause a loss of earnings for a while until people adjust. After that change is absorbed, of course the UK would be profitable again. Quite likely more so, since there would be less money spent on transporting stuff around. Still, it takes time to build the necessary factories and competences, and nobody will start doing that until it is the most-profitable thing to do.

    The EU of course know that this cliff-edge (and the short-term loss of income) is a big hammer to use in the negotiations. Politicians don’t however tend to have a long-enough horizon to be able to accept the short-term loss and long-term gains, since the losses next year may result in them losing their jobs, and the profits will accrue to their successors (probably their rivals).

    I just don’t see the argument that the UK will run short on imported medicines and food, given that the UK has control over the time taken to inspect incoming goods. Seems like such delays on imports would be a deliberate act to make things difficult, with no obvious gains apart from saying “told you it would be bad!”.

    Could be that someone on the EU side will refuse the extension of the deadline, and thus the UK will leave on the 31st October. Seems unlikely, though, given the damage to the EU that will cause. At the moment, it looks like the EU has been given all the power by the UK parliament, and things will remain in limbo for quite a while. I’m expecting that Article 50 will end up being revoked within a year or so, through having another referendum with an even stronger application of FUD to ensure the UK population knuckles under.

  66. Bill in Oz says:

    @A C Osbourne : I am not furious. Though I was born in Liverpool, I am Australian. I was just offering an insight into the truly bizarre state of UK politics…And i totally agree with BEXIT..Bugger the EU ! Britain gas become just another province of a new European empire…And betrayed it’s unique British heritage.

    But surely you can see the bizarreness of a Tory mp moving no confidence and maybe being voted down by ‘Labor’ MP’s fearing the end of their own political futures if it passed. ?

    As for Boris I think he will do whatever it takes. And for that I have great admiration. Hopefully the Brexit party will support that effort.

  67. YMMV says:

    Ed Forbes: “If the EU heads of states have to be unanimous in granting an extention, then Boris votes no for the UK.”

    Clarification, from a comment on Motls blog:
    “A single EU head of state can veto an extension to Brexit in the EU council. Unfortunately, UK PM is not allowed to sit on the council for these discussions.”

  68. Another Ian says:

    Corbyn and his friends in Parliament don’t trust you to make this decision – but I do. Let’s put it to the people: more delay with Corbyn’s #SurrenderBill, or Brexit delivered on October 31st 🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/q8tIwDMkcH
    — Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) September 5, 2019 ”

    Via

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2019/09/boris-explains-brexit.html

  69. Richard Bellew says:

    Up-thread, someone mentioned Dr Richard North’s blog, eureferendum.com, His post yesterday was headed by this cartoon (if I can make it work):

    My own two cents worth: North is very much worth taking seriously.

    [ Reply:Had to fish this out of trash due to the F-bomb in the attachment. E.M.Smith ]

  70. A C Osborn says:

    Simon Derricutt says: 5 September 2019 at 3:05 pm
    “I just don’t see the argument that the UK will run short on imported medicines and food, ”
    Simon I agree that argument is absolutely total bullsh!t, especially medicine.
    When I worked for Fords in the UK supplying parts all over the wortld if there was any suggesting of stopping an assmbly line or plant the answer was simple.
    I am amazed that those people haven’t been shot down in flames, the answer is called an AIRPLANE.
    Yes it would add a slight cost to the medicine, but it could be brought in to the country in a matter of hours from anywhere in Europe if it was a lfe or death medicine.
    It is all project fear.

  71. YMMV says:

    It’s a quiet weekend for Brexit, just a suspenseful drum roll. Util Monday, and the day after that, and the day after that,…

    Some have said that BJ is the guy who plays chess (while the others do something else).
    I take that as a metaphor for someone who sees many moves ahead and has a strategy.
    Which even if true, it’s hard to see the move options which remain.

    Chess has simple fixed rules. The problem with Brexit is that the rules keep changing, so the chess metaphor is not so useful. But there is one thing about chess — it is played best by chess masters. These are single individuals. Not committees, not parliaments, not voters. The average of 600+ people is not better than the current leader’s moves. Sure, they can restrict what BJ can move, but they cannot win against the EU.

    BJ is standing firm on not asking the EU for an extension, but the mob is planning a legal move to put him in jail if he doesn’t. Maybe they have The Tower in mind.

    “Well, my dear reader, surely has left the building.”
    “As the British constitution (paradoxically) crumbles under the weight of its non-existence, Johnson’s leadership style is one of “never, never, never give up.” One of “keep calm and carry on.””
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/09/making-sense-of-the-brexit-chaos/

    “In 1992, voters in Denmark rejected the Maastricht Treaty, then they voted the proper way in 1993. Irish voters rejected the EU Treaty of Nice in 2001, then in 2002 were ushered back to the polls, when they voted in accordance with EU wishes. After Ireland rejected the Treaty of Lisbon in 2008, the voters returned to the polls to deliver the EU-desired result in 2009. ”
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/09/brexit-new-referendum-proposal/

  72. jdseanjd says:

    The wise John Ward, determined Brexiteer, looking forward:
    http://www.hat4uk.wordpress.com/2019/09/08/the-sunday-essay-how-and-why-only-we-the-people-can-block-the-anti-brexit-barbarians/

    Will Boris have the brains to ally with Farage? I hope so.

    As to brown envelopes, EM, look up the case of Neil Hamilton, who got to his hind legs in parliament to ask a question for Mohamed Fayed for only £1,000, the cheapskate.
    Then ponder the Banksters’ ambitions for a World Govt & their unlimited ‘out of thin air’ fiat money.

    The EU is run on the corporate lobby system, & is less democratic than the US Congress: the European Commission of 28 unelected political appointees drafts all laws, directives etc for the phony parliament to rubber-stamp. Sometimes the EU parliament gets as much as 15 minutes to peruse & discuss said bills before they approve them. Farage never tires of pointing out, loud & clear, the many deficits of the cesspit. The EU is between a rock & a hard place: They hate us Brits & Farage in particular, but desperately need Brit contributions & trade.

    Oversimplified, UK contributes £350 Million per week to EU. They give us less than half back & dictate how it is spent, to further THEIR agendas. Crazy.
    John Doran.

  73. E.M.Smith says:

    What I would MOST LOVE to see:

    Boris & Trump announce a draft “Free Trade Agreement” that says:

    “All trade will be duty free. Per agricultural or other products, should either party wish to forbid any particular product on technical grounds, such as, say ‘chlorinated chicken’, that is fine. Trade what you like.”

    Then have Her Majesty stand up and say:

    “To the People of my realm; you are the true Sovereigns. I am but a placeholder for your desires.
    As you have voted to leave the European Union, and as Parliament is thwarting the will of you, The People, . I am proroguing Parliament from this day forward until November. We will once again by a free nation, and you will then elect a new Parliament to do Your Bidding.”

    I know it won’t happen. The Crown is too dedicated to “staying out of politics” so they can hang on to their special monetary advantages. But really, were Her Majesty to do this, it would get the majority of The People so say “Now THAT’S why we’ve got a Queen!”….

  74. Another Ian says:

    “Report: PM Boris Johnson Has Simple Plan to Legally Stop Brexit Extension….”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/09/08/report-pm-boris-johnson-has-simple-plan-to-legally-stop-brexit-extension/

  75. beththeserf says:

    Comment @ Jo Nova on ‘Weekend Unthreaded. Some legal background to Brexit…Soros is in it.

    “beowulf
    September 8, 2019 at 10:22 am ·
    Boris has had 2 initial victories in the courts — including the prominent Gina Miller/John Major case — with the judges ruling that this prorogation is legal. Both those cases are now on appeal, in Miller’s case to the Full Supreme Court with 9 judges presiding, the Lords Justice returning early from their annual holiday break just for Gina. It’s nice to have mates in the legal establishment who push your case through all the way to the Supreme Court in a few days, while Brexiteers have to wait months for an initial hearing. One other similar case is still in progress in Belfast.

    The Remainers moved an emergency motion to take control of business in the House of Commons, so naturally Speaker Bercow obliged. The anti-No-Deal bill that passed this week in the Commons derived from the emergency motion and as such by convention could not be amended by the House to give it more teeth, but Bercow trashed that convention.

    That bill should have also been stopped at the 3rd reading by the Speaker as it is in conflict with the Royal Prerogative of the government to engage in treaties (tying Boris’s hands in EU negotiations), but Bercow waved it through in total contravention of parliamentary convention and constitutional rules. In simplistic terms, he by-passed the Queen. Naughty.

    That’s 2 major parliamentary conventions trashed by the Commons Speaker in one day (in addition to Bercow’s previous convention trashing). Not bad for the Mother of Parliaments.

    The bill still had to go through the Lords, and Brexiteer lords were going to filibuster it with over 100 amendments (the HOL has different rules to the Commons), each of which has to be debated and voted on twice by normal convention. That should have wasted enough time for prorogation to kick in, after which the bill — as unfinished business — would automatically fall at prorogation.

    After 10 hours of boring monologues the Tories did a deal which allowed the bill to pass!!! Nobody seems to know exactly what went on there. I think that’s fish you can smell. I’m not sure why you would throw away a perfect opportunity to win the battle now, just as I am not sure why Boris has thrown away several opportunities to knobble the opposition.

    One amendment to have an election before the anti-Brexit Bill came into force was voted down 283 to 28 — that’s what democracy is up against in the Lords. These are folks who don’t need to fear an election to retain their jobs like the Commons MPs, yet are still virulently opposed to a vote by the people.

    The new revelation that rebel Tory and Opposition MPs have been secretly negotiating an international treaty with 27 foreign powers without sanction by the government or the Head of State is completely outrageous. Engaging in foreign affairs is the exclusive realm of the executive — ministers of the government. The Rebels’ actions are unlawful and unconstitutional.

    In their secret negotiations the Rebels apparently had assurances from the EU Council that an extension to the Article 50 Brexit date was a given and drafted their anti-Brexit Bill specifically to be in line with the EU tactics. It is also suspected that other as yet unknown international agreements were entered into by the same Rebels.

    John Bercow is the HOC Speaker from hell: blatantly biased against Brexit; abusing his powers; trashing parliamentary conventions left and right.

    Two can play the convention-breaking game however as TdeF alluded to. This was the hot topic in legal circles even before the latest revelations. When the bill passes, Boris could withhold it from Her Maj rather than passing it on as per usual for royal assent, or recommend assent not be given on various grounds, including unconstitutionality, or other permutations of blocking assent, thus stopping it from becoming law.

    Unconstitutionality would normally have to be tested in the courts and any court case arising from this would be rushed through by a compliant judiciary like the Miller cases, probably before the Oct 31st Brexit deadline, so you couldn’t rely on the case dragging on and causing a default WTO Brexit.

    However, the new revelations have given Boris some serious ammunition to refuse assent on the basis of the illegality of the Bill’s perpetrators. This Bill was framed and based on the illegal negotiations of the Rebels, and as I said above, it is in conflict with the Royal Prerogative of the government to engage in treaties. Royal Consent was also not sought. On face value it would appear to be a no-brainer to withhold assent.

    It comes down to whether Boris recommends withholding of assent or the Queen herself refuses assent. The Rebels can’t take the Queen to court. Withholding assent was already being urged by a number of legal commentators as the tactic to break the deadlock with a rogue parliament that won’t enact the express will of the people and also refuses to submit to an election.

    Due to tactical abstentions by Labour, Boris didn’t come within a bull’s roar of getting the vote of 2/3 of sitting members required to trigger an election, and is due to move a second motion for an election on Monday. He has since directly called for the people to pressure their MPs to vote for an election.

    Withholding assent would seem to be the main shot in Boris’s locker, followed by an election, extending prorogation, and the ever-diminishing time to the Oct 31st deadline. Thus far Boris has been extremely disappointing, fumbling about, squandering vital opportunities and losing at every turn, but you never know what Boris is up to.

    Boris has stated that he “would rather be dead in a ditch” than seek another Brexit extension. He was still intent on some sort of deal but the actions of the Rebels must have made him think twice.

    In related news, leaked documents show that Soros is funding the anti-Brexit group Best for Britain to the tune of about £5.6 million to stop Brexit. It is thought to have bankrolled the 2 main anti-Brexit court cases and is currently trying to infiltrate the unions with propaganda and its political commissars. Its action plan has been splashed across the Daily Mail.

    On a lighter note: In the UK the viewership of Netflix and free to air TV has dropped because Brexit on YouTube is unaccountably more entertaining than BBC fake-news or Police Academy VIII re-runs or suicidal walrus docos by aged global warming propagandists.”

  76. jdseanjd says:

    EM, Queeny is a distraction maintained by the Banksters, along with Parliament, to give us plebs the illusion that we have any power.
    We don’t: we do not manufacture the currency, as debt, out of thin air.
    Therein lies the true power: the relevant search terms are: Indurated Down To A Fixture.

    Part of the web of deceit is the little ceremony whereby the Queen requests permission to enter the City Of London from the Lord Mayor Of London.
    The City Of London is a 1.2 square mile enclave within London: it is an independent city state akin to the Vatican in Rome or DC in Washington, with its own police/army. I believe it does not pay taxes. Mayor of Greater London is a completely separate post which Boris once held & polluted.

    You may be amused by my various exchanges on this post:
    http://www.off-guardian.org/2018/06/29/times-headline–fears-over-prospect-of-peace/

    John Doran.

  77. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    Sky UK has some (former?) judge from the (supreme?) court on saying that Boris can NOT attach a “nope not wanted” letter of his own as he is charged to pursue an extension “in good faith”. So at least one judge is saying that would be a no-no with potential jail attached.

    On that other possible, Queen’s Assent, that’s a very interesting citation:

    <
    But the second occasion in relation to royal assent, "the predominant academic view … is that the Sovereign … must act upon the advice of responsible ministers.”

    Professor of public law at the University of Glasgow School of Law Adam Tomkins concurs. From his book Public Law: “If the monarch were given clear and firm Prime Ministerial advice that she should withhold her royal assent to a Bill which had passed through the Houses of Parliament, it seems to be the case that the monarch should follow that advice.”

    As Robert Craig noted, Twomey uses the example of where a new government that has the confidence of the House and “objects to a bill passed … by a defeated predecessor … then its advice to refuse assent to a bill should be accepted.”

    But even if that IS done, what happens when Parliament reconvenes in mid October? Are they just stuck, or is there more mayhem they could create then?

  78. rhoda klapp says:

    I don’t quite see why Boris has to act in good faith when his parliamentary enemies are colluding with the EU, who are not negotiating at all in good faith.

    I heard Royal Assent was given and the bill passed. I don’t see where the jail bit comes from, is there no due process? Is there a term of imprisonment mentioned in the bill?

  79. E.M.Smith says:

    @Beththeserf:

    Interesting…. Didn’t know about that prohibition on MPs negotiating “deals”… Nor the details on how Bercow had biased things.(just the assertion he had). Now I “get it”.

    So it looks like it is in large part all down to Her Majesty The Queen… And it looks like Boris gets to be the determiner of ministerial advice. IF he really does have evidence that the MPs were stepping on Royal Prerogative, that looks like a presentation with which the Queen would agree. Just state “These MPs have abused your Royal Prerogative in these ways and crafted this bill based on that illegality. We, your government, recommend you withhold assent.” And maybe, just for good measure, as the prorogation of Parliament be extended to November when new elections can replace them…

    A fella can hope…

    @jdseanjd:

    It does look like the nexus of much of the problems throughout Europe and extending into the rest of the world, started with the major banks and their loans to government. They seem to have an extraordinary lock on the creation and use of the money supply.

    I wonder if our Founders knew that and that’s why they put the “gold & silver” clause in our Constitution? (Now simply ignored… even though plainly written).

    Note: I’m not a “Gold Bug”. There are significant problems with using gold & silver as money. However, having money free of any anchor (fiat paper money) has a huge set of problems too. Where the balance lies between them is a huge space of arguing). I’m not taking a position on gold & silver as money, just pointing out what our Constitution says and that it is ignored. When I was a kid, we still had silver money, and the paper was redeemable in silver or gold; so this is a recent change to fiat money.

  80. p.g.sharrow says:

    Being the Queen of a European Colony may not be an acceptable outcome. Britain did not agree to this situation but was slowly slipped into the present condition by salami slices of bureaucratic rule making and behind the curtain political maneuvering. 2,000 years of attempts by European empire builders have failed to marry the British to Europe, this attempt will also fail.

  81. rhoda klapp says:

    We don’t have a UK equivalent of the Logan Act, so those remainer MPs may not have been acting against the law, just against the nation. Although their defence may be that the EU isn’t a foreign power as we are in it. Brexit may come down to who picks the judges, and the judiciary has been stuffed with progressive for years here.

    Anyhow the Speaker (squeaker of the house) says he is going to quit. On 31st Oct or at the next election.

  82. E.M.Smith says:

    According to Sky UK the Speaker of the House of Lords has announced that the bill has become law after the Queen gave it royal assent.

    If true, that path is closed off.

  83. beththeserf says:

    Bein’ a satrap Queen
    isn’t no Queen at all !

  84. jdseanjd says:

    I looked for a photo of Rothschild poking Prince Charles in the chest:
    http://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/24066179238799593
    Who rules? Not his Royal Dimness, thank goodness.

    Ron Paul spent 20 of his 23 years as a Texas Senator trying to get an audit of the Fed.
    He failed.
    He proposes the Texas Talent as a new currency, IIRC.
    JD.

  85. YMMV says:

    One of the odd things about Brexit is that I can never find the actual text of the laws that get passed. The devil is in the details and the MSM leaves those out.

    Presumably, the recent law which says BJ has to ask for an extension doesn’t say he has to do it before he tries to get a deal. That would be crazy, but I would not put it past them. So as long as they are still talking, or even if he gets a deal that the MPs will reject, he is safe. But who knows how he will play it?

    I mentioned before the frequent theme of chess. It’s more like poker. Bluffing is allowed. The EU is big on that. All the “we won’t approved another extension” is just bluffing. They will.

    The other odd thing is that everybody wants a deal, but nobody says exactly what they want in that deal. Any deal as long as it does not have The Backstop?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49640344
    “Brexit: Why France is unlikely to veto delay”
    Also contains ideas about an Northern-Ireland-only backstop variation.

    Conrad Black (who has been a member of the UK House of Lords) writes an interesting background story to Brexit. The UK has always been a bit apart, fighting either France or Germany, and the EU has always been anti-American: “in which the United States would be dispensed with when it was no longer needed to liberate it from the Nazis or protect it from the Soviets, and the European countries as a group would resume the role of world leadership the European Great powers had played prior to World War I.”
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/09/the-roots-of-brexit/

  86. H.R. says:

    YMMV posted a Conrad Black quote(bold mine):
    “[…] and the EU has always been anti-American: “in which the United States would be dispensed with when it was no longer needed to liberate it from the Nazis or protect it from the Soviets, and the European countries as a group would resume the role of world leadership the European Great powers had played prior to World War I.”

    Dream on. “A-l-l-l aboard!” was being called at the end of WWI and the train left the station after WWII. Now go back to sleep, Europe, and dream about the good old days when the Monarchies of Europe fought endlessly with each other.

  87. rhoda klapp says:

    HR, it’s OK, the history they have in their tiny minds doesn’t have to match anything real. The UK as a whole doesn’t go for the great days of Europe much. Usually it has been a problem for us.

  88. Bill in Oz says:

    Until recently I had high hope of Boris. I don’t any longer. He has bumbled his way around Brexit like an idiot.

    That is disappointing.

    I suspect that Farage & the Brexit party is the only way forward for the the UK now.

  89. rhoda klapp says:

    OK, there is a legal case running in Northern Ireland right now. Complainer seeks to restrain the government from seeking or accepting ‘no-deal’. Because the troubles might kick off again. The govt case is (seems to be..) that there is no provision in the Good Friday Agreement for what is happening now, but it’s an agreement between North and South whether they are each in the EU or not.

    Secondly, the govt is proposing that Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty does NOT require a deal, it merely gives a negotiation period at the end of which the country leaves, deal or not. And THAT overrules any law the UK parliament can make about a deal because EU law is superior to UK law. Which is deliciously ironic. Parliament is trying to stop the UK from being in charge of its own laws but it can’t do so because they already gave away control, their home-grown laws do not apply.

    This and other spoiler cases will all be heard in the Supreme court soon, no matter what the lower courts decide. So it all comes down to the judges.

  90. beththeserf says:

    Farage and Trump, not imbedded in the Globalist self – anointed – philosopher-king – technocracy… Those without a commitment to individual liberty, yer purveyerrs of ideas phantasmagoria, and not real stuff. Serfs were wary of Boris as of May, tawk’s cheap.

  91. A C Osborn says:

    YMMV says: 10 September 2019 at 4:53 pm
    “The other odd thing is that everybody wants a deal”
    Sorry, the EU do NOT want a deal, they want to maintain the status quo or improve on it if possible, which is what May’s supposed deal did. It left us in the same position in the EU but without any voice in any decision.
    You can find out about the actual laws if you know where to look, here is an example
    https://www.gov.uk/eu-withdrawal-act-2018-statutory-instruments

  92. rhoda klapp says:

    The only ones who want a deal are those who would accept no deal, because without that as a negotiating position you’ll never get a deal.

  93. YMMV says:

    @A C Osborn — okay “everybody” is always an exaggeration.
    Thanks for the link to the actual laws.

    The “£39 billion Brexit bill” — is that American ‘billion’ or UK ‘billion’?
    “The old UK meaning of a billion was a million million, or one followed by twelve noughts (1,000,000,000,000). The USA meaning of a billion is a thousand million, or one followed by nine noughts (1,000,000,000).”
    I was thinking if you divide that into a per person bill, whatever it is, it is still a lot of money.

    And here is another reason to get the UK out of the EU ASAP.
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-autoshow-frankfurt-carbon/car-makers-near-co2-cliff-edge-in-electrification-race-idUKKCN1VU2I5
    “Carmakers near CO2 cliff-edge in electrification race”
    Which does not say “if you can’t afford an electric car, get a horse” — but close.

    Which points out the problem with ideologies. They are not practical, they are not pragmatic.
    Get rid of XYZ, even if there is no replacement.

    Which makes me yearn for the old days of monarchies (sarc) which only fought for personal greed.
    Those who fight for ideologies are more dangerous. Islam, Marxist-Leninist, Climate Apocalypse, the EU, and so on. You could say that Bill Gate’s Microsoft was your greedy evil bastard, but now the Google spider-web is your greedy evil ideological bastard.

  94. YMMV says:

    If you will forgive me another rant about the EU, this is funny (in a twisted sort of way).
    https://www.rt.com/news/468527-eu-commission-way-of-life/
    “Von der Leyen’s ridiculous EU commissionser roles are exactly why people hate Brussels bureaucracy”

    Executive Vice-President “An Economy that Works for People”
    Executive Vice-President “European Green Deal”
    Executive Vice-President “Europe fit for the Digital Age”
    Vice-President “Protecting our European Way of Life”
    Vice-President “A Stronger Europe in the World”
    Commissioner “Neighbourhood and Enlargement”
    Commissioner “Crisis Management”
    Commissioner “Cohesion and Reforms”
    Commissioner “Equality”
    Vice-President “Values and Transparency”
    Vice-President “Democracy and Demography”

    https://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/VDL_chart_revise.pdf
    from https://www.politico.eu/article/european-commission-president-elect-ursula-von-der-leyen-actual-organization-chart-commissioners-portfolios/

    There are True Believers of the ideal of One Government, who still believe in the ideal of the UN and the EU without seeing how corrupt the reality of it is.

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