W.O.O.D. 16 October 2019

Intro

This is another of the W.O.O.D. series of semi-regular
Weekly Occasional Open Discussions.
(i.e. if I forget and skip one, no big)

Immediate prior one here:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/10/01/w-o-o-d-1-october-2019/
and remains open for threads running there (at least until the ‘several month’ auto-close of comments on stale threads).

Canonical list of old ones here:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/category/w-o-o-d/

I had been deprecating the use of “tips” pages. As the open discussion pages caught on, tips dropped off. For a month or two now I’ve not had a “tips” page put up, and nobody seems to have noticed. Then this last month folks started using the last TIPS page again. So do I need to bring them back? All the old ones remain for historical reference:
Tips Pages

What’s Going On?

We Need A Calendar

So right now, in theory, we’re to find out if A Deal has been made on Brexit as the EU is deciding things. Then, on Friday the USA A.G. is supposedly releasing his report (reported to be the size of a phone book…) of who did what Bad Thing when.

Then, in just about 2 weeks, the UK is supposed to be a Free Nation again. Maybe.

So I’m thinking maybe we need to actually lay out just what date what thing blows up ;-)

In any case, the next couple of weeks are going to be a Big Deal one way or another for all of the EU, UK, and USA.

Turkey, Syria, Russia, Kurds, etc. etc.

The USA has decided to see if folks in the region can Play Nice without us getting shot at. I think everyone is in agreement that the answer is “No!”. The Donald, not being dumb (you don’t get into Wharton from Queens without some serious skills) I’m pretty sure he knows this. The big question is just what is his indirect goal?

My best guess is that he wanted to let Turkey run a ways, so he can pull hard on the leash to show who’s the Alpha in this relationship. It also ought to motivate the Europeans to take their place as local punching bag and let our guys have a rest. The Donald is trying to get NATO members to pony up their share of the costs; how better to do that then let them have the Turkey / Syria / Kurds / Russia mess to deal with as it is right next door?

I’m also pretty sure that POTUS has noticed we, the USA, were being used as an instrument for Color Revolutions and wants us out of that game. Look at Ukraine. Just after the “Color Revolution” a flock of Democrats swooped in (along with Soros) to pick up $Billions. Not an accident. Russia saw what was going on and grabbed the part with a mostly Russian population to take them out of the theft area. Now there’s a new guy in office in Ukraine, so we’ll see how much of the corruption gets removed and how the Russia relationship works out.

Just as a reminder: Crimea was “given” to Ukraine by Khrushchev in what is arguably an illegal way. It was never ratified. From their POV it would be like Clinton or Obama giving California to Mexico without any vote by the people or congress. Then Trump taking it back.

So last I looked, Turkey was rushing in to a 20 to 30 km buffer zone, the USA was applying sanctions Real Soon Now, the PKK invited Assad / Syria back in, and Russia is showing up with party favors. So Real Soon Now we’ll have a NATO member (other than the USA) nose to nose and belly to belly with Russia in an arguably hot war where the NATO member did the invading.

It will be an interesting test of NATO, and will show the true intentions of Turkey.

Per the “Horrors!!! Russia!!!” of having them “gain influence” in the region: Well, fine with me. Let them deal with the Sunni / Shia perpetual war and the tribal ethnic fighting and the “Pal today blow you up tomorrow” for a while. I’d rather we simply stopped pissing in Russian Borscht and said “Your neighbors, your problem” for a while. IMHO, Russia isn’t a threat to the USA. (While our “trade partner” China clearly is…)

Since it isn’t possible to force peace on the region, let someone else stand in the middle of the circular firing squad.

Hyperventilating Impeachment Follies Continue

The hyperventilating and emotionally unstable Dimocrats have decided to impeach POTUS Trump for doing his job.

Guliani has said, politely, ~’Take your kangaroo court and stuff it’. Nice.

Truly amazing is how the pwned media like CNN / MSNBC can say with a straight face that Biden did NOT blackmail Ukraine to stop investigating his graft-by-kid-proxy when he’s on video tape bragging he did so.

A few Republicans are starting to realize Trump is their POTUS too. With luck, they will realize just how corrupt the Democrat Party has become. Unfortunately, many in the Republican Party were on the same gravy train, so it may take some primaries to clean that out (Romney…)

Supposedly tomorrow, Friday, the AG Report comes out and the cast of corrupt characters starts becoming public. We’ll see. It IS a Friday Dump, so maybe not as much as expected and being released for minimal news coverage.

Pelosi will NOT have a House Vote, so at best she can get this Faux Impeachment tossed to the Supreme Court to decide if the Speaker and a few Party Hacks can, in fact, impeach, or does it take the full House Of RepresentativeS as it says in the Constitution.

This is all right out of the Color Revolution Play Book. Attempt to paint the National Leader as illegitimate, then remove by legal process or by force. Do not expect that when the legal process is over, it’s over. Soros is funding this and he owns the Dims. He will play the book out to the end. (Vis Antifa as Street Theater Protests with violence).

BREXIT – Or Ought I Say Surrender Bill?

So this week the Deal is supposedly in the Tunnel where nobody can see the sausage being made. Boris must return a “Deal” to Parliament for a vote. Or, if no Deal, send a letter to the EU asking to stay in shackles a bit longer shipping £Billions for just a few more months, please….

Boris is saying “Out October 31”.

So the next 2 weeks will be full of fireworks and God Only Knows what.

FUD Watch – Fear, Uncertainty, & Doubt

Gargoyle Gretta was denied the Nobel Peace Prize! Oh, the horrors! AND after she was so good at berating everyone for making her feel bad and screwed up her face into the most angrified child possible! “How could they!”

/sarc;

Saudi War Escalates?

The USA has sent a couple of Thousand troops and some more missile defense systems to Saudi Arabia. Iran is really really pissed and starting to thrash about.

Is it hypocrisy to let the PKK deal with the Turks by pulling out 50 to 100 special forces while shipping thousands to Saudi? Nope. We’re busy twisting the Iranian Tiger Tail and it’s thus our responsibility to mitigate their damage while they thrash around. They’ve decided to whack on Saudi and Oil so that’s where we keep the containment going.

Snow Season

Check out Iceagenow.info:

It’s not ‘change. It’s drop!
October 15, 2019 by Robert
This is in reference to the article ‘Denver- 2nd largest temperature change on record!‘.
[…]
It. Does. Not. Quit.
October 15, 2019 by Robert
“A storm of this severity and duration is rare in the middle of winter, maybe unprecedented in early October.”
[…]
‘No lights, no heat. Nothing. Period’
October 15, 2019 by Robert
An “unprecedented” snowstorm hammered Manitoba over the weekend, forcing states of emergency in both the city of Winnipeg and the province.
[…]
Record cold in Transbaikal Territory
October 14, 2019 by Robert
Several settlements report record cold.
[…]
More than a foot of snow for parts of Alaska
October 14, 2019 by Robert
About 16 inches of snow blanketed the Susitna Valley, according to the National Weather Service.
[…]
Vancouver – Coldest Oct 10 in 123 years – 2nd cold record in two days
October 13, 2019 by Robert
Temperatures tumble across B.C. At least 41 records broken across province in 2 days.
[…]
Record snowfall in North Dakota – Three times previous record
October 13, 2019 by Robert
Beats previous record “by a long shot,” says meteorologist. “It’s historical, really.”

We’ve got massive snow dumps going on. A big dump hitting the center of the USA. This Matters. Especially given that China is having crop failures (so much so they were willing to sign up for a $50 Billion food buy despite being squeezed by Trump – very non-Chinese way to be, to ‘capitulate’ like that)

This is going to get worse before it gets better. What I said last time still holds. But, about Nov. 1 we ought to know how bad it finally was on crop loss.

LOTS of midwest crops were planted late, and many don’t fully ripen until the end of October. This early start to snow means some of those will be lost, many will be frosted early or harvested runted. There will also be a lot of fall / winter crops and planting that won’t happen as there isn’t time between the end of harvest and the start of snow.

I don’t expect a food panic yet, but we will likely see the start of the change to shorter seasons and larger “one crop a year” areas.

Deep State Skate

Rumor (on the news) is that AG report ( or was it IG?) comes out tomorrow. So this section is a place holder until that hits…

Ebola Watch

Yeah, it is still “a thing” even if not top of the non-news MSM.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/ebola/drc-2019/

Last time:

Latest numbers as of 28 September 2019
3188 Total cases
2129 Total deaths
991 Survivors

Compare now:

Latest numbers as of 16 October 2019
3224 Total cases
2152 Total deaths
1037 Survivors

It isn’t over, but does seem to be slowing. An increase of only 36 cases. Just one or two a day. That’s manageable.

The worrisome bit?

https://www.who.int/csr/don/21-september-2019-undiag-febrile-illness-tanzania/en/

On 10 September 2019, through its regular event-based surveillance process, WHO was made aware of unofficial reports regarding the death of a person with suspected Ebola Virus disease (EVD) case in Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania. The identified contacts of the deceased were unofficially reported to be quarantined in various sites in the country. Under the IHR Articles 9 and 10, WHO immediately sent a verification request to the National IHR Focal Point (NFP) of the country.

On 11 September, through its regular event-based surveillance process, WHO was made aware of unofficial reports that a RT-PCR test performed at the Tanzanian National Health Laboratory was positive for EVD for this patient. On the same day, WHO received unofficial reports regarding another suspected EVD case in Mwanza, located in the northern region of the United Republic of Tanzania, who later tested negative for EVD. WHO continued to reach out under the IHR to the health authorities of the United Republic of Tanzania to verify these signals.

On 12 September 2019, WHO was informed by unofficial sources of a 27-year-old patient suspected of EVD admitted in a hospital of Dar es Salaam without further information regarding laboratory tests and results

So there’s some sporadic “hopping” to other countries going on. One can only hope that it doesn’t hop a flight to Europe or Asia.
“But hope is not a strategy. -E.M.Smith”…

Socialist Policies On Parade

Anyone remember Venezuela? Argentina?

I thought not…

Or, now, Hong Kong. Where it is going to get you fired if you criticize China here in the USA? The Spineless NBA has shown that they are willing to sacrifice rights and principle for money.

IMHO, what they OUGHT to have done, is simply say “Here, in the USA, persons have free speech. That was his right. We do not own his time during off work hours.” Instead, they have now proven to China that Blackmail Via Employment is a fruitful and viable strategy.

NBA, you are dead to me. Enjoy your relocation to China.

It’s very simple: ANY Company that sacrifices MY rights for money, does not get my money. Not Dick’s. Not Walmart. Not the NBA. None. Either you take a principled stand for American Freedoms and Rights, or you can move to China. Do not expect to import Chinese Rules to here without grief.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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222 Responses to W.O.O.D. 16 October 2019

  1. Ed Forbes says:

    One of the better analyst of the ME probem. One part of the link.
    .
    “..This is where the Kurds come into the equation. Eastern Turkey is Kurdish, and maintaining stability there is a geopolitical imperative for Ankara. Elements of Turkey’s Kurds, grouped around the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, have carried out militant attacks. Therefore it is in Turkey’s interest to clear its immediate frontiers from a Kurdish threat. The United States has no overriding interest in doing so and, indeed, has worked together with the Kurds in Iraq and Syria. But for the Turks, having Kurds on their border is an unpredictable threat. American dependency on the Kurds declines as U.S. involvement in the Middle East declines. Turkey becomes much more important to the United States in relation to Iran than the Kurds..”
    .
    “..Trump clearly feels that the wars in the Middle East must be wound down and that a relationship with Turkey is critical. The faction that is still focused on the Middle East sees this as a fundamental betrayal of the Kurds. Foreign policy is a ruthless and unsentimental process. The Kurds want to establish a Kurdish nation. The U.S. can’t and doesn’t back that. On occasion, the U.S. will join in a mutually advantageous alliance with the Kurds to achieve certain common goals. But feelings aside, the U.S. has geopolitical interests that sometimes include the Kurds and sometimes don’t – and the same can be said of the Kurds..”
    .
    https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-origins-of-new-us-turkish-relations/

  2. Graeme No.3 says:

    I am not so sure that if California was given to Mexico that Trump would be that keen on getting it back. It is true that the cost of the new wall would be high, but it would get rid of Pelosi and a number of Democrats (that was what SpellCheck thought I typed).

  3. YMMV says:

    “But for the Turks, having Kurds on their border is an unpredictable threat.”
    Not to mention that for the Turks, having Kurds inside their border has been a threat for years, long before Erdogan. Turkey is 15 to 20% Kurds.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurds_in_Turkey
    The east has been a no-go area for years. Not like the no-go areas in Europe, but still listed as dangerous for travellers.

    The way it’s going, it might be better to give California “back” to Mexico in order to save it.
    When are the masses going to realize that their leaders are selling them out?
    The Sierras make a pretty good wall, but that would not be where I would put the wall.

  4. Another Ian says:

    E.M. FYI

    “This is why the Democrats are Frightened of Tulsi Gabbard”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2019/10/16/this-is-why-the-democrats-are-frightened-of-tulsi-gabbard/

  5. jim2 says:

    AUSTIN — A 10-year-old self-styled militia group called Oath Keepers is seeking volunteers to help “protect Trump supporters” during the president’s rally Thursday in downtown Dallas.

    https://www.caller.com/story/news/local/texas/state-bureau/2019/10/15/trump-rally-dallas-who-are-oath-keepers/3987462002/

  6. jim2 says:

    So we’ve seen fox new and gallup polls that indicate a plurality believe Trump should be impeached AND removed.

    But I watch Rasmussen’s daily presidential tracking poll. You can see where his approval dipped a week or so ago when the “whistle blower” was bandied about. But his approval rating is pretty much up to where it was before that.

    I don’t know if libtards have organized and collaborated to tilt poll numbers, but I’m not believing those polls.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_oct16

  7. philjourdan says:

    The Cali Mexico is not a good analogy. If Obama had given Reno to California, then California seceded, and Trump had grabbed it back for Nevada. That is Crimea. when the swap occurred, they were still one union, instead of separate countries.

  8. philjourdan says:

    Errata!!! I should have thought of this first.

    Crimea Analogy.

    What would happen if Virginia seceded again AND took West Virginia back – it was also illegally removed from the State,

  9. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting interview with General Flynn done in 2016.

  10. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jim2: When you look into those polls, you find things like CNN polling their viewers, or a New York paper polling their readers (so only getting left coast biased sample). It is NOT a clean statistically balanced national poll.

    @Per Crimea:

    The USSR was not one country, it was a Federation. Heck, even Russia is The Russian Federation. Ukraine is and was a distinct country with their own language, culture, and history even inside the USSR. Not just some Provence in the USSR Nation. Crimea was part or Russia (not USSR nor Ukraine) for about 200 years pre 1953 or so. The people there spoke Russian, not Ukrainian, and were Ethnic Russians mostly. The analogy with Mexico/California is better as it includes the different language aspect . BTW, California was part of Mexico for something like a dozen years. Prior to that it was Spain, not Mexico, and the North part was Russian (Thus the Russian River…). The Mexican claim to California is very thin… Spain has a stronger claim.

  11. Another Ian says:

    A rallying call

    “A CALL TO ACTION: “Stand” – We Will Remember The 129 Republicans Who Refused to Stand With President Trump…”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/10/16/a-call-to-action-stand-we-will-remember-the-129-republicans-who-refused-to-stand-with-president-trump/

  12. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting spear point found in Texas, pre-clovis point by stratigraphy.
    Has a nice map of the earliest human fossil sited to date in the US.

    Note the oldest are in the eastern part of the country not the north west.

    https://www.thevintagenews.com/2018/10/26/oldest-weapons/

  13. H.R. says:

    From the article Another Ian linked (pre-Clovis points)
    “Scientists believed the first Americans made it south of the continental ice sheets about 16,000 years ago and slowly spread out.”

    I’m more of the opinion that the first Americans arrived in the Southern portion of the continent and moved north as the glaciers retreated. It has always seemed easier to me to walk and raft or boat around the Atlantic basin than trek across a glacier. The walk and float route would have more food sources than the glacier route.

  14. p.g.sharrow says:

    @HR; I would have to agree and we should always remember. Sea levels were 300-400feet lower during the Ice Age. The Continental Shelves were exposed as great plains with Ice fields above. No reason for early humans to occupy the bitter highlands to the north…pg

  15. E.M.Smith says:

    Well, Sky News UK is saying Boris has “a Deal”. No details yet, but Corbyn is saying it is a lousy deal, apparently without seeing it… and DUP is saying their M.P.s won’t vote for it.

    So positions being shown on no information…

    Guess on Saturday we see what Parliament thinks.

  16. E.M.Smith says:

    A lady who worked for me once was 100% Native American and from an Eastern tribe. I commented that her tribe had a very European look. She was very appreciative that I had NOT said she didn’t “look Indian” like most folks said. Then proceeded to tell me her tribe all looked very similar and had not mixed with Europeans. She looked sort of Basque like, but with some differences.

    Similarly, old paintings of North East tribes shows folks of European bone structure, eye shape, etc.

    I think it is clear that a Europen population type came to North America. The Soultrean hypothesis. NOTE: this was before the present European population type swept into Europe from the East Eurasian area. They do not justify any claim to North America by modern Europeans (that Native American leaders fear) as the present European type are the same ones who displaced them in Europe about 7000 years ago…

    There is a much more Asian type in the West of the USA, and another different tyoe in South America AND a tribe there with strong Japanese evidence (pottery matching Japan, genetics matching, exhumed old burials with a desease that was only in Japan but now extinct, and more).

    All in all, the evidence for multiple arrivals by sea and coastline from both East and West is best. It is a lot easier to travel the coastline by boat than anything else. People have had boats for longer than civilization…

  17. E.M.Smith says:

    From comments in that link:
    https://www.nature.com/articles/nature22065

    The CM site contains spiral-fractured bone and molar fragments, indicating that breakage occured while fresh. Several of these fragments also preserve evidence of percussion. The occurrence and distribution of bone, molar and stone refits suggest that breakage occurred at the site of burial. Five large cobbles (hammerstones and anvils) in the CM bone bed display use-wear and impact marks, and are hydraulically anomalous relative to the low-energy context of the enclosing sandy silt stratum. 230Th/U radiometric analysis of multiple bone specimens using diffusion–adsorption–decay dating models indicates a burial date of 130.7 ± 9.4 thousand years ago. These findings confirm the presence of an unidentified species of Homo at the CM site during the last interglacial period (MIS 5e; early late Pleistocene), indicating that humans with manual dexterity and the experiential knowledge to use hammerstones and anvils processed mastodon limb bones for marrow extraction and/or raw material for tool production

    There are also ancient fire pits in South America dated to about 50k yrears ago.

    For some reason, archeologists are extraordinarily resistant to the evidence of human occupation of the Americas over great antiquity and many separate arrivals, despite us doing the same in more modern times. But we’re “Special” /sarc;

  18. Steve C says:

    @E.M. – You say “Ukraine is and was a distinct country … even inside the USSR.”. Although also, given that oh, about a thousand years ago, a little place called Kyiv was the centre of the Rus culture, one can imagine there might have been a few (OK, many) inter- and intra-cultural grudges going on for centuries, all the way from there to Moscow.

    I’m happy to leave them to sort themselves out. ;-)

  19. Larry Ledwick says:

    I ascribe to the idea that during the ice age sea level low stand, it is highly likely that people from the European and Mediterranean region (Modern southern France Portugal, Spain Iberian peninsula etc.) followed the southern edge of the sea ice to America likely landing in modern day South Carolina or thereabouts.

    The area off shore of modern day South Carolina would have been a shallow sea over the Blake Plateau ( great fishing ???)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blake_Plateau

  20. Larry Ledwick says:

    Sea Level low stand would have been about -130 meters below current sea level (-426 ft)

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2004JC002455

    https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth107/node/1496

  21. YMMV says:

    https://www.rt.com/uk/471135-farage-brexit-extension-election/
    “‘Mr Brexit’ Farage says ‘no’ to Brexit right now & calls for extension and election after rejecting BoJo’s deal”

    Corbyn of course is a no, but Farage?

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/britain-clinches-brexit-deal-johnson-must-secure-parliaments-backing-idUKKBN1WW12G
    It pleases the EU! So no more extensions; it’s this or nothing.

  22. E.M.Smith says:

    V.P. Pence announced a ceasefire between Turkey and Kurds. Looks like economic sanctions clarified some thoughts…

    Kurds have 120 hours to evacuate a 20 mile strip, Then sanctions come off.

  23. A C Osborn says:

    YMMV says: 17 October 2019 at 4:38 pm
    Corbyn of course is a no, but Farage?

    Of course because it is in no way, shape or form Brexit.
    It is an even worse version of May’s deal.

  24. YMMV says:

    OK, that’s an opinion, can you expand on your reasoning?

    The deal is 64 pages, you can find the full text via this page:
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1191912/Brexit-deal-explained-new-Brexit-deal-details-Boris-Johnson-Brexit-deal-reached

  25. jim2 says:

    LOS ANGELES (Tribune News Service) — A major California fault capable of producing a magnitude 8 earthquake has begun moving for the first time on record, a result of this year’s Ridgecrest earthquake sequence destabilizing nearby faults, Caltech scientists say in a new study released in the journal Science on Thursday.

    https://www.stripes.com/news/us/unprecedented-movement-detected-on-california-earthquake-fault-capable-of-8-0-temblor-1.603516/quake-1.603517

  26. philjourdan says:

    Per Crimea – hence why the second analogy is better. The US, prior to Lincoln, was a collection of States (much like the USSR). The difference is the language, but you cannot use that with Cali and Mexico any longer.

    People think that this is the United “STATE” of America. No, it was founded as the United STATES of America. And West Virginia was unconstitutionally separated from Virginia.

  27. philjourdan says:

    A great example of how liberalism makes you stupid. If you had any brains to begin with (I give Cuomo the benefit of the doubt) -https://hotair.com/archives/jazz-shaw/2019/10/12/cuomo-orders-utility-pump-imaginary-natural-gas/?fbclid=IwAR2Siw9QhNFduorKYoiHEA01uFvRhKD6KZ3YdS-JoD9WU-Z_Y5t2ahilJ3U

    Another Grey-out Davis comes this winter, when things get cold, and the pilot light goes out to all those gas customers, I am sure Cuomo will bankrupt that nasty gas company and put it into government hands – to do what? Pump sea water through the pipes?

    Cali could be worse. It could have the leadership it does AND cold winters! Like NY.

  28. Another Ian says:

    Re the Dutch farmers’ revolt – an even bigger bungle by the look of it

    http://joannenova.com.au/2019/10/furious-commuters-drag-extinction-rebellion-protestors-off-train/#comment-2206593

  29. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    THE basic problem is that selected groups have been given protected status to break the law and harm other groups. The purpose of law and policing is to prevent that. The obvious failure means people revert to their built in sense of fairness. (It has been proven to be an innate thing). When that is pushed too far or too long, folks will take corrective action themselves. Thus is vigilanty justice born.

    There will be increasing amounts of it as more folks fray….

  30. jim2 says:

    Speaking of “corrective action themselves.”

    London commuters physically dragged Extinction Rebellion protesters off the top of a busy underground train on Thursday morning.

    A video shared widely on social media appeared to show a number of protesters on top of a Jubilee Line train at Canning Town station in East London.

    A busy platform of commuters were seen jeering at the activists before one protester is pulled down from the train.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/17/extinction-rebellion-climate-activists-dragged-off-tube-trains.html

    (It’s about time!!)

  31. Steve C says:

    Nice to see the Dutch farmers’ revolt getting a mention – they’ve been doing it with some style, going by what I’ve read. Apparently, wherever the Dutch cops put up a roadblock to stop ’em, they just take those big tractors off road and go round it ;-) … Good on ’em.

    There’s another delight of the modern age which I’ve been watching with some concern lately, the latest instalment I found here this morning:
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7585741/A-13-year-old-youngest-33-Americans-killed-vaping.html .
    How long has “vaping” been around? – and now it seems to have started taking people out at a rate that almost makes tobacco look like a healthfood. I’d never heard of “popcorn lung” before this trend started – it seems to be generating a whole new pathology all its own.

    Declaration of interest: I am an entirely unrepentant smoker of a half century or so (I’m less than a fortnight from my 25,000th day on Earth …), and still manage to walk miles per day at a respectable speed despite my using ~50gm of the “sot weed” per week. (Probably helped by the fact that I watch where I’m going when I walk, rather than focusing on the palm of one hand!) I have never considered converting to this newfangled craze, and the more stories like this I read the less I am tempted. Anyone else watching this trend with concern?

  32. jim2 says:

    RE vaping. It is a technique that has potential as a nicotine delivery vehicle sans tar. Some vaping products contain chemicals known to cause popcorn lung. And, since kids can buy vaping fluid off the street, you never know what might happen. The FDA has begun to regulate what’s in vaping products, but street drugs will always be an issue.

  33. A C Osborn says:

    E M, this is one for you, as I am not sure if you have seen it.

    This is real cutting edge Science at work with loads of data coming from it, not like cold fusion.

  34. A C Osborn says:

    ps is that Piers Corbyn in the front row?

  35. H.R. says:

    Steve C writes re vaping: “Anyone else watching this trend with concern?”

    I’m an ex-smoker but still hooked on nicotine. I don’t use any tobacco products. I have anecdotal evidence, have run across research blurbs in the news, and participated in an experiment way, way back when I was a smoker… all this related to memory and particularly as it relates to helping with Alzheimer’s. So I still imbibe and yes, I’m hooked, but I don’t need the tars and junk.

    I do vape. It is remarkable compared to smoking. My lungs are clean and I can push-mow, walk forever, and it really showed last fall when I was walking that mile+ all uphill mountain in Tennessee last Fall. It really is like I’m a non-smoker.
    .
    .
    The first report I heard was of 8 deaths in Minnesota? Wisconsin? and a short week later a cluster of hospitalizations and a death or two around Atlanta. I immediately suspected there was some bad vape ‘juice’ out there. I did not want to get hold of any of that.

    I mean, what… years of no problems and then all of a sudden people are dying and hospitalized and all in a cluster. That says ‘bad juice’ to me.

    I talked to the owner of the shop where I buy my vaping fluid. I told her that people vaped for years with no problems, then these clusters of serious problems, said to me that some bad juice was to blame. I asked her how do I make sure I don’t get hold of that dangerous bad juice.

    She didn’t know for sure what was going on and it was being hotly discussed in her vape shop owners’ circle, but she did mention that they would not sell any juice in her shop that had butterscotch flavoring. She referenced the popcorn lung problem, which BTW was first identified at a popcorn factory about 20 miles up the road from her shop. She is kind of double-tuned in to watch for lung damage from vaping. Anyhow, she does think that butterscotch and perhaps a couple of other flavors probably causes popcorn lung.

    The juice I use is made in the USA and purchased in person. I don’t trust buying online because I’m less certain about what I might be getting. I was always suspicious non-US products.

    About three-ish weeks ago, I finally ran across what I believe is the problem, and it’s a serious problem. It seems that these deaths and illnesses are related to bootleg vape cartridges and it started up about the time cannabis was legalized. Stay with me, here.

    The established vape product providers had good quality processes and had figured some formulas that they believed would just leave nicotine as the only potentially harmful substance in their product.

    They charge a bloody fortune for those cartridges and when cannabis was recently made available as a vaping option, they stood to make even more. I have no idea what ‘pot’ vape cartridges cost, but it has to be very steep and very profitable.

    Sooo… all of the sudden, counterfeiters saw the money in cannabis and started up their bootlegging businesses. The article I read said the cartridges could be bought for pennies, and filled tobacco substitute cartridges were going for $4-$5-$6 each. The cannabis ones were way more. It wasn’t particularly worth it to set up for tobacco substitute vape cartridges, but it certainly was for cannabis vape cartridges. Once you’re set up, then it makes sense to go ahead and do both.

    The article mentioned that the CDC was puzzled at first because there was no one brand or type – cannabis or nicotine – that could be pinpointed. Once they found out about the counterfeiting, then it all started to make sense.

    When I quit smoking I used to buy those cigarette substitute vape systems at the gas station, but then my favorite brand was bought out and axed and the prices started shooting up. I switched to a small, hand-held vape device that you fill from 30 ml or 60 ml bottles of juice. Oh, and when I did that, I read online and also a few of the shop owners I talked to made it a point to recommend buying quality juice and not go for lowest price.

    Anyhow, I would not buy vape cartridges on a bet now. I believe that counterfeit cartridges, with lord only knows what is in them, are the problem. And there’s no way of knowing if you’re getting factory cartridges or counterfeits.

    I also have no interest in trying any of the flavored juices knowing that some flavorings do cause popcorn lung, even if the base juice is benign. And I also believe that’s where the young ones are getting the popcorn lung, unrelated to the injuries and deaths caused by the bootleg stuff. They were never really smokers. They like all the wild flavors and that’s where they run into problems.

    Last word; I use a menthol juice. They make that in tobacco-flavored menthol, so it will taste like a menthol cigarette, and just plain menthol. I no longer like cigarette smoke/smoking. The smell now bothers me pretty much like most ex-smokers so I just buy the plain menthol flavor. I do not want the tobacco flavor at all.

    I am confident that what I am buying is safe so I am not going to be trying anything else. And… I’m still watching, but I think I’m correct about the problem.

  36. E.M.Smith says:

    @Steve C:

    Yup. If it were up to me, I’d have The Patch sold OTC at a lower price than cigarettes & vaping.

    @H.R.:

    I think you are right. ALL the problems popped up as soon as the THC / Bootleg problem did.

    Then there will be idiosyncratic reactions to flavor molecules. Like people who react to peanut oil when 99%+ don’t.

    The Official Factory more or less plain ought not to be a problem.

    FWIW: While trying to make tobacco extracts for bug spray I discovered that an Acetone Extraction did pick up a lot of nicotine (and a lot of green color) AND discovered that it will help transport it through your skin…. Not a horrible dose, but very much enough to know it was there.

    So, lesson learned, I don’t make that anymore ;-)

    However, if an EOTWAWKI event ever comes along, and you happen to have some tobacco seeds and acetone, you don’t need to smoke the tobacco ;-)

    Oh, and IIRC, “popcorn lung” was traced to the scorch products of the oil used in making the popcorn (vaporized into the factory air) so I’d suspect the bootleg vape products are just being make with cheap cooking oi…

  37. YMMV says:

    “years of no problems and then all of a sudden people are dying and hospitalized and all in a cluster. That says ‘bad juice’ to me.”

    Or it could be years of few users, below the radar, then suddenly it takes off and people start to notice something. Too soon to say, but you may not want to be on the bleeding edge.

    Google vape propylene glycol glycerin. There has been research and it does raise concerns.

  38. H.R. says:

    @E.M. – You probably on to something with that observation that cooking oil is probably being used in the counterfeits.

    But the problem at that popcorn factory was the powdered butter flavoring in the air that was mixed in with the unpopped corn that they were packaging in the microwave packets.

  39. H.R. says:

    @YMMV -“Google vape propylene glycol glycerin. There has been research and it does raise concerns.”

    Yes I looked into that when I started and there are two formulations. My fill bottle is not at hand right now, but I don’t think I’m using that formulation. I settled on one with no or few reported problems and now I’ve quite forgotten which one that is.

    So thank you very much for the reminder. I’ll go redo my research.

    BTW, my lungs tell me I’m w-a-a-a-y ahead from when I was smoking, but it never hurts to keep an eye on this particular topic, even if the only issue is ‘bad juice.’ That’s still a big problem because the bad juice out there has killed people.

  40. YMMV says:

    “The greatest toxicity effects came from two flavor compounds, vanillin and cinnamaldehyde”
    (evidently based on the following study)
    E-liquid Database, measures the toxicities
    https://eliquidinfo.org

    “propylene glycol and glycerol, can form carcinogenic compounds when heated”
    “popcorn lung? The medical name is “bronchiolitis obliterans,””
    “the specific chemical associated with popcorn lung symptoms is diacetyl, a food additive that was once used to make popcorn taste buttery without butter.”
    “The diacetyl makes the flavors richer,”
    “While the FDA has approval to regulate e-cigarettes and vaping, very little actual “regulation” takes place. Essentially, vape makers are required to inform the FDA of what is in their product, but there is no public disclosure. Companies can tell customers as much or as little as they want.”
    https://www.mphonline.org/vaping-public-health/

    My conclusion is that vaping may be a good way to reduce the nicotine habit — or prolong it without cigarettes. (or to avoid the heavy sin taxes?). The downside is that it seems to be attracting children to smoke. And I believe Keith Richards has confirmed that quitting cigarettes is harder than quitting heroin. Keith is a drug-abuse survivor, and I attribute that to him using high quality drugs, not street vendor drugs (but I don’t know).

  41. Another Ian says:

    Give it another go but shout louder?

    “Hillary Clinton Reignites Her “Vast Russian Conspiracy Theory” Against Tulsi Gabbard…”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/10/18/hillary-clinton-reignites-her-vast-russian-conspiracy-theory-against-tulsi-gabbard/

  42. H.R. says:

    @YMMV – Hey! Thanks for looking into that. I was out and about as of finishing my post to you and I am sitting down to check on the college football games. There’s a good one tonight. Anyhow, that’s info I didn’t run across and I probably won’t check on the various formulations until tomorrow.

    You wrote: “My conclusion is that vaping may be a good way to reduce the nicotine habit — or prolong it without cigarettes. (or to avoid the heavy sin taxes?). The downside is that it seems to be attracting children to smoke.”

    You can buy the fluid with varying concentrations of nicotine. I started at 1.8% and I’ve moved down to the 1.2% level recently. After a while, I’ll see about moving down another level. Though I didn’t say it above, I do see it as a way to wind down from nicotine addiction. Slow, but working for me so far.

    I strongly agree that vaping is far worse than smoking for attracting kids. All those fruity flavors taste pretty good, it’s not harsh like smoking., and the kids don’t walk around smelling like an ashtray particularly. If they are not telling their parents they are vaping, there’s no telltale odor.

    Kids nowadays don’t like smoking or cigarette smoke. But the vape flavors are almost like candy – and it just hit me… maybe they (particularly teen girls) are vaping to cut down on candy and avoid weight gain.

    I’ve heard a few States are looking at banning all those tasty flavors. That would cut out a lot of kids, and the remaining smoking-like vape juices would only appeal mainly to people who move to vaping from smoking.

    I’m off again, but thank you for that additional information. I wasn’t thinking of using ‘popcorn lung’ in my search for the various fluid base formulations. I would have never seen that.

  43. Larry Ledwick says:

    Meanwhile a minor incident of violence in Mexico. Guy witnesses a street shoot out with automatic weapons. Just a random day south of the border.

  44. Larry Ledwick says:

    More on the shoot out in Mexico triggered by the arrest of the son of a drug lord.

  45. Power Grab says:

    @ HR:

    I hadn’t been following the vaping problem until I read this article earlier this year:

    https://www.checkupnewsroom.com/why-doctors-believe-vaping-landed-17-year-old-in-icu/

    Here is an article about the dangers of propylene glycol:

    https://www.tandurust.com/health-faq-5/propylene-glycol-dangers-uses.html

    Among other things, the article states “…it becomes a health hazard if exposure to this chemical is large by way of ingestion or by inhalation.”

    And another article:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4415329/

    The title of that last one is “Bactericidal activity of propylene glycol, glycerine, polyethylene glycol 400, and polyethylene glycol 1000 against selected microorganisms”

    I have seen comments on forums where people claim to not have colds or flu anymore once they began vaping. I assume they’re attributing that to the germicidal action of several of the ingredients.

    However, I have become cautious about how many different antimicrobial substances we’re ingesting in food, drink, drugs, and the environment. In the first article, I found this statement: “Was it an infection? No organism seemed to grow from cultures. Was it an autoimmune disease? The rheumatologists didn’t think so.”

    Recent research into our microbiome is leading researchers to new discoveries about how essential these microorganisms (I assume both so-called “good” bugs and “bad” bugs) are to our very existence. They’re learning that the most healthy among us have a large variety of strains in our microbiome. But whenever you take antibiotics, you alter the mix and it never returns to its previous status.

    Some commenters on forums have discussed how researchers are finding mold in e-cigs and vaping fluid. They’re finding it because people are sick and they’re finding mold in their lungs. I have come to learn that throwing germ killers like antibiotics at an infection may not help if the infection has a fungal etiology. Since we need both good and bad bugs, but when you kill off too many of one or the other, then the surviving strains take over and can cause illness.

  46. Steve C says:

    Well, some interesting thoughts about vaping – particular thanks to H.R. with active experience, but nice to see others of us too had noticed. I had noted the association with THC vapes, but found that surprising in that you don’t seem to get similar levels of damage from smoking even the strongest, skunkiest weed neat, nor from “hot knives”, where you’re also roasting all the unknown ??? compounds of hashish, nor from the hash oil I encountered in the 70s which was pure enough to have a pretty well defined melting point. If the THC (& CBD?) is implicated, it would seem to be through an unintended interaction with some compound (or dissociation product thereof) in an unknown dodgy solvent. Cue that wonderfully double-headed boast:
    “Our Customers Are Our Quality Control” …

    If THC is “sorta-legal” or better in some places, you’d expect the existing commercial manufacturers to get straight in there for the available profit. They already know how to do it right, and commercial production normally undercuts any kind of “craft” product by a margin. Hell, many years ago, people I knew were exchanging “knowing” comments about “… of course, all the big tobacco manufacturers have got big stockpiles in their warehouses ready for legalisation …”. With Nottingham (then) being home to John Player, there should have been at least olfactory evidence, but I never heard of any, nor of a glut of cheap weed when the rumours stopped.

    If the problems are coming from unknown solvents being used to make dodgy semi-licit vapes, it reminds me of an interview I heard years ago. The interviewee was an emergency paramedic from Jersey (hardly a den of vice, you’d think), and his point was that when you’re called out to an emergency and find a patient who has (say) overdosed on heroin, you know what to do. He and his colleagues were being increasingly called to scenes where the patient had taken an unknown quantity of some unknown “legal” high – and they had to work out what the hell was happening as they went along. Patients were being lost, a little like now.

    So, thanks to all for the thoughts and observations. We’re still some way from Soma, it seems, and as ever a lot of the problem appears to be crappy quality semi-legitimate “products”. Meanwhile, as a thoroughly unhealthy smoking specimen, I think I’ll keep on as I am until I notice undue deterioration. I did give up completely – for four or five years – twenty or thirty years ago, but honestly found I felt worse than I had whilst smoking, so gave up giving up – and yep, have felt “normal” (whatever that is ;-) again ever since.

    I’ll stay downwind ;-)

  47. Another Ian says:

    Latest Pointman

    “A change of direction.”

    https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2019/10/18/a-change-of-direction/

  48. Another Ian says:

    E.M. Comments requested

    “Hayek v Mises”

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2019/10/19/hayek-v-mises/

  49. Simon Derricutt says:

    Reference vaping: I figured a year or two ago it would be worth trying. I found that the commercial fluids were made from a mixture of propylene glycol and glycerol, and that propylene glycol was used to give a “throat hit” whereas the glycerine was smoother. I think the original idea came from the “smoke machines” used in discos where flavoured smoke was produced, and despite having been a smoker for a long time that fake smoke made me cough. As it happens, so does the standard vape fluid, and it’s only with the straight glycerine fluid that I don’t find a problem. I can buy glycerine from the local pharmacy, and I’ve left some sliced-up cigar in it to macerate for a while, and that isn’t a problem. However, it doesn’t taste much of tobacco, either, and I went back to tobacco where I don’t require it as often.

    Knowing about that “throat hit” also explained an earlier problem, since most commercial tobaccos have “texturing agents” and “flavouring agents” mixed in, and aren’t actually pure tobacco anyway, and these also make me cough. I spent many years smoking “Old Holborn” tobacco in the UK, and no problems. I suppose around 20005 there was a difference in packaging, and suddenly I started to get a sore throat/coughing problem occasionally. A few years later the packaging changed again, and the problem was bad enough to consider stopping altogether. I figure they added more propylene glycol to the mix, which has the advantage of keeping the stuff moist for easier hand-rolling (thus maybe people think it’s better quality), and then later they added a bit more. I did however find a 100% pure tobacco here in France that didn’t have the problem. While I can still get that I’ll likely continue with real tobacco (TM).

    Yep, I know the reasons for not smoking. However, it does aid thinking, and possibly is a self-medication that has benefits and isn’t all downside. Having had a half-dozen years of not-smoking in the middle, it seems I’m more productive when I’m able to smoke through knotty problems.

    Steve C: when I was in the UK I couldn’t find a tobacco that wasn’t adulterated and that didn’t make me cough. If I couldn’t grow my own, I’d have become a non-smoker again if I’d stayed in the UK rather than just visiting now and again and bringing my own supplies. See http://www.coffinails.com/ for somewhere to buy seeds and get a pure product. Pain in the butt, really, but I figure the majority of the harm is from the additives. Here in France, AFAIK I can’t legally grow even one tobacco plant, though you can in the UK providing you don’t sell it.

    Until recently, medical authorities were of the opinion that vaping was most likely a lot less harmful than smoking tobacco. As H.R. points out, the recent vaping harm is probably bad fluid one way or another. All those new flavours, and you don’t know what’s in any of them, especially the bootleg versions made by people who aren’t competent chemists and are looking to do things on the cheap. Then again, much the same with bootleg alcohol, and people dying from bad distillation, which still happens now and again.

  50. Ossqss says:

    RE: Vaping illness.

    I looked at the statistics on this item and it was rather compelling that 79% of those who grew ill were Vaping THC products that were bootleg. I would venture to say many of the remaining statistically had a predisposition or secondary illness as part of the situation or used sugar based flavored products. Vaping has been around for a long time, but seems to have morphed some since THC products are now legal in many areas. Just my take. I do Vape only tobacco flavored liquid, but have no ill effects from it. It sure beats hacking up a lung all day from cigarettes as was the case until I moved over to the vape products 3 years ago. Saved a bunch of cash also :-)

  51. Ossqss says:

    I found the link I read a while back. Stats have changed a bit as this appears to be updated on Thurday’s.

    https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/basic_information/e-cigarettes/severe-lung-disease.html

  52. p.g.sharrow says:

    Just an observation on crude cannabis extracts, If they were bootleg cannabis filled vaping fluids, it could cause wax like coating in the lungs. Vaping units would heat the waxes to vapor while blood temperatures would solidify them. Crude extracting Cannabis results in a wax like oil that is only partially water soluble because of the plant waxes that are flushed with the solvent…pg

  53. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    “Comments requested”? Well, it would take about 400 pages… It’s an article that covers a chunk of History of Economics (and does a reasonable job of it in the space it has) where it takes about 100 pages just to establish the background of who and what is being discussed. Now Econ IS my field, so I’m fairly familiar with it all, but for most folks it is just eye-glaze territory. So I’m not going to do 100 pages on Econ History…

    The Short Form is that most of what folks call Keynesian isn’t what Keynes said, and most of what is attributed to the earliest Economists is also wrong. Keynes, in fact, pointed out that his idea would “only work for a few years” at most before you ended up in a “liquidity trap” – something all the Central Banks of today are exploring vigorously having run into them… negative interest rates and all…

    Do the Austrians have it right? Compared to “Modern Theory” certainly. Does that mean Keynes was WRONG? Nope. It means the Modern Distortion Of Keynes is wrong. Keynes himself just said it was a VERY SHORT TERM patch that a government could use in specific circumstances as long as they were fully aware they had to end it soonish. All his qualifiers ignored today in what is attributed to him.

    @Power Grab:

    One of the problems is that the good bacteria often keep the fungi and molds under control. Kill off the bacteria, the fungi take over.

    @Steve C:

    To do a simple solvent extraction of M.J. just takes acetone. Works a champ. (I “invented” this in about 1973 or so, and used it for the length of my dalliance, that was about a year… then decided I didn’t like the memory loss and mental cloud and wanted to think for a living and never again looked at MJ as interesting…) Acetone evaporates VERY well leaving a pure “hash oil” behind (but rather green ;-)

    I doubt it is any solvent from the extraction process. But perhaps by solvent you are meaning the carrier oil in the vape liquid?

    Much more likely, IMHO, is the “carrier oil” used to make it into a vaping fluid. The straight extract would be a “one hit and you are flying” strength, so it would need to be diluted. I put some of the oil on a small joint of very cheap shake “maybe a baggie will do it” quality… and it became a “one hit wonder” ;-) So that gives an idea of the dilution needed.

    Ah the memories of being a “20 something” ;-)

    FWIW, nicotine causes the brain to make fewer receptors on the surface of cells (why you end up addicted and need a long time to lose the addiction). So you must remain nicotine free long enough for that process to reverse and for the brain cells to remake those receptors (for your natural stimulant compounds that also bind to that site). That’s why a long slow reduction works. It gives a lot of time for the brain receptor levels to slowly rise. And why “cold turkey” is so hard. You go to painfully low right out the gate and then wait… OTOH, the cell chemistry is then much more motivated to remake the receptors ;-)

    And thanks for standing down wind ;-)

    @Simon:

    IIRC, Acetone is also a great nicotine solvent. You ought to be able to rinse your cigar in acetone, evaporate it off, and get a fairly strong extract. Then mix that with glycerin. Just remember that acetone is about as flammable as gasoline so away from ignition source with lots of ventilation…

    I’m fairly strongly allergic to tobacco / cigarette smoke. In the ’80s a guy lit up across the table from me at a card game. I was about to protest when I noticed I was NOT reacting. I decided to just “ride it out”. Nothing. Even after I asked him to blow some in my face. “What are those?” They were some kind of “all natural pure tobacco” brown things. I’ve forgotten the name, though. Basically that told me that most likely it is all in the additives.

    I’ve grown tobacco (as a natural pesticide it works great!) and I don’t react to the plant or the pollen either. I even tried a “chew” of some of it. No problems. (Interesting mental stimulation though… I understand the attraction. Like somebody hit the turbo for about 20 minutes… but then the let down is rather strong.)

    I was about to lay in a stock of some “all natural” cigarettes to hand out to smokers around me when the tendency to smoke in public in California plunged… so I didn’t need to bother.

    @P.G.:

    I suppose my acetone extraction brought any waxes with it too; but that my using it via a regular burning carrier would have burned the waxes in the traditional way. Would be interesting to do a separation by molecular weight and see what’s actually in the acetone extract. IF I had a mass spectrometer… and source material… and cared enough ;-)

    Might also be interesting to try a water extraction on the acetone extract. First pick up all the acetone / organic soluble bits, then extract the water solubles from that. Drying would take a lot longer (and might need warming to finish) but you could fractionate fairly well that way. Hmmm…. Might be interesting to to a xylene (available in some hardware stores) extraction too. Then you would get a pure organic soluble extract in one bucket and the water only in another. Find out where the different agents go (THC vs CBD vs junk vs insolubles vs…) Some times I miss chemistry lab ;-)

  54. Larry Ledwick says:

    Or you could use refrigeration to freeze the waxes out of solution.
    Not sure if temperatures changes solubility in acetone much though.

    A related question, I have always wondered how much lung cancer is self inflicted from over dosing on volatile oils like air freshener sprays and scented candles. It never crosses peoples minds that just because it smells good does not mean it is good for your.

    Cyanide can smell like bitter almonds.

    https://emergency.cdc.gov/agent/cyanide/basics/facts.asp

  55. jim2 says:

    Re home extraction of nicotine. Keep in mind, nicotine will kill you if you get enough of it.

  56. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    Great Pointman article / link!

    @Jim2:

    “The poison is in the dose”. Even salt and water are lethal at too high a dose…

    Yes, for nicotine the dose is much lower, but I’ve tested the acetone extraction as a transdermal exposure and it was not that big. (Yes, I used good technique and did a very small extraction then small drop by drop over time exposure until I had a small stimulant effect noticed. Extract from a quantity of leaf one might consume whole, then slow exposure to the solvent extract to assess efficacy of delivery).

    My assessment was that unless I soaked my hands in it for a while the dose / exposure was going to be acceptably low from any accidental small splash drops.

    FWIW, I was looking at making a pesticide spray extract and wanted to figure out the risks to me of using the spray. In the end, I settled on just “run some leaves and water in the blender” as the quickest and easiest way to get a drench that did in bugs and / or repelled some of them. Then found that just having some planted on each end of the garden had all the leaf miners unable to pass up those big glorious leaves… and they would accumulate a lot of little white eggs on the underside … all of them doomed and dead… so even easier than making a water frappe drench ;-)

    The particular variety I was growing only gets about 4 feet tall max, but has about a 10x nicotine concentration compared to more smokable varieties. I’ve forgotten the name of it, though. Ordered a decade or two back from an online tobacco grower… supposedly the flavor isn’t that great but it is used in blending up the strength of better tasting ones, or something like that. All I cared about was bug killing power ;-) Leaves are about the size of Chard leaves, so not the meter long giant ones…

    Unfortunately, tobacco seeds are minuscule and do not last long so my stock is undoubtedly dead now. For about 5 years it had naturalized in the borders of the garden and I got out of the habit of saving seeds. Then I went to Florida on contract and the garden was neglected for a couple of years. On the restart, no tobacco… So “someday” I’ll need to order more.

    FWIW, my best guess was that I’d need to paint about 3 square inches of skin with the strong acetone extract to get a “therapeutic dose” and a lot more to get a damaging one. YMMV based on how strong an extract you make and how much solvent you then evaporate out… The wiki says the lethal dose is unknown
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicotine

    An average cigarette yields about 2 mg of absorbed nicotine
    […]
    The median lethal dose of nicotine in humans is unknown,[

    but large and links to this page:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicotine_poisoning

    The estimated lower limit of a lethal dose of nicotine has been reported as between 500 and 1000 mg.

    So you are looking at about 500/2 = 250 cigarettes worth of exposure at the lower end of the lower limit… We’re talking 1/2 GRAM to a full gram.

    Basically you will be flying on the stimulant effect long long before getting anywhere near the lethal dose from any sort of minor transdermal solvent exposure. Even that would require extracting about 250 to 500 cigarettes worth AND getting 100% of it into you.

    So my conclusion what that the risk was pretty darned low.

  57. E.M.Smith says:

    Ah, found the name again:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicotiana_rustica

    Nicotiana rustica, Aztec tobacco or strong tobacco, called ucuch in southern Mexico (specifically Campeche and Yucatán) due to its Mayan roots, mapacho in South America, Bauerntabak (peasant’s tobacco) in Germany, and thuoc lao (thuốc lào) in Vietnam, is a rainforest plant in the family Solanaceae. It is a very potent variety of tobacco. The high concentration of nicotine in its leaves makes it useful for producing pesticides.
    […]
    N. rustica leaves have a nicotine content as high as 9%, whereas N. tabacum leaves contain about 1 to 3%.[

    The link also says it was common in Russia as it grew where they could not grow the more smokable Virginia types ;-)

    I suspect this may be why folks had bad things to say about Turkish or Russian cigarettes ;-)

    The link says it isn’t grown in N. America anymore, but I know that’s not fully true. Maybe not commercially, but some folks grow it ;-)

  58. Larry Ledwick says:

    In the green house they used nicotine insect bombs. Every one got chased out of the building at quitting time and then they did a walk around to make “sure” everyone was out, then set off the bombs (think smoke bomb) starting at the far end of the green houses and worked their way to the door, then locked up and by morning it would be safe to enter the building.

    https://www.hunker.com/13722047/dyson-hunker-house-tour

    https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/pressroom/presspacs/2010/acs-presspac-october-27-2010/tobacco-and-its-evil-cousin-nicotine-are-good-as-a-pesticide.html

  59. YMMV says:

    I think the oil and wax theory has promise. Oil and wax coating your lungs can’t be good, even if the oil and wax are chemically harmless. One doctor said a patient’s lungs showed “areas that have essentially solidified like bacon grease.” That’s an intuitive image.
    https://www.news-medical.net/news/20190923/Scans-show-vaping-teene28099s-lungs-blocked-with-solidified-oil.aspx

    THC and CBD do seem to be a common factor. This link says “underground sellers began using a new tasteless and odorless thickening agent in late 2018. Buyers often judge THC potency by its thickness.”
    https://www.webmd.com/mental-health/addiction/news/20190905/are-vaping-ailments-linked-to-bootleg-cartridges
    and it also mentions it suspects vitamin E acetate, which is also an oil.
    (It’s not clear from the article, but this is the thickening agent)

    https://www.leafly.com/news/health/vape-pen-lung-disease-vitamin-e-oil-explained
    “Vitamin E is the common name for several similar types of chemicals called “tocopherols”.”
    This web page goes into lots of details about why you don’t want this in your lungs. Bad news for several reasons. “vitamin E chemicals first appeared in vape pens on the illicit cannabis market in Los Angeles near the end of 2018” and became very popular after that.

    Looks like a smoking gun.

  60. Larry Ledwick says:

    Here you go EM a zero power beer cooler for when SHTF time.

  61. YMMV says:

    I got a kick out of this one.
    https://www.rt.com/uk/471316-johnson-refuses-brexit-delay/

    “Johnson’s options were limited, so he technically fulfilled the obligations, sending a total of three document: an unsigned draft letter asking for a delay, as required by law; a cover letter explaining he was forced to do so; and a signed letter emphasizing that any extension would be a “mistake.””

    I’m looking forward to the Day of The Dead. Anyone for dressing up as Greta?

  62. E.M.Smith says:

    @YMMV:

    Oh thats a good one! I’d not even thought of sending an unsigned letter! Any “conteact” would require a signature…

    I guess now we wait while Parliament and the EU scheme their response…

  63. Larry Ledwick says:

    Note to ANTIFA, be careful who you harass! You never know what your up against, and looks can be deceiving.

    (some strong language in the video)

  64. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    What a great idea! (For non-California and not-Florida ;-)

    Our ground temp here is about 56 F in winter. Good for British beer, Coors not so much… Florida is even warmer…

    Maybe I ought to move to Tennessee instead ;-)

    BTW, that video would not play on any of the browsers on my tablet (including Brave). Not sure what the format was… but it did just play on the Odroid N2 with the new install of Armbian and new Chrome browser…

  65. E.M.Smith says:

    I noted immediately that the “Old Guy Patriot” was standing in something close to what my Karate Instructor called the “Ticket Writing Stance”. (He was a motorcycle cop in his day job…). Arms mid body one hand in the other. Not crossed like the guy in the video, though.

    IMHO he’s had some martial arts training. Knows how to launch a punch without a lot of telegraphing it. Knows how to duck a punch. Stays situationaly aware. Reminds me of some of my sparing partners.

    Then the Antifa clods have no clue what they are doing. Wide open. Lots of targets to hit. No defensive screen positioning of the arms. Legs side by side and easy targets.

    I’d personally not do the “head shot” he did, but that’s just me. My favorite is a simultaneous launch of a kick or knee and one or both arms. Usually one arm as a defensive screen and attention diverter and the other as a throat strike coming end on under it so hard to spot, while the leg (depending on how close the target is and their stance) aims to take out a knee or put a knee in their crotch. Basically nobody can respond in 3 places at once and at least one of them lands. Then, as they start to go down, you apply further techniques as desired… (Like turning the upward shooting defensive distractor into a back of head grab and guiding their face into your now upraised knee…). It’s usually all over in under a second. Maybe 2 seconds if you miss and need to do a reset / relaunch.

    Something about “punching up” and sparing repeatedly against brown and black belts tended to build skills quickly… I did manage to point on a black belt in one match. Really got him ticked off at me and I was pointed out in the next moves ;-) But man do I cherish that point ;-)

    About purple belt (next belt was brown in my dojo) I started doing the simultaneous launches. It wasn’t specifically taught to us. It just sort of seemed like a good idea so I tried it. I started being top dog in any sparing against purple or lower ;-)

    I’ve carefully watched any of the Antifa videos that I’ve seen. They have some very rudimentary “defense techniques” guidance ( I hesitate to call it training, it’s more like an hour of practicing one move, and it’s often more of one attack technique than any defense as defense). I’m pretty sure I can take down 2 at a time. Maybe 3. Biggest worry is they have the ‘Red’ circle and attack from behind, so turning and having constant situational awareness is key. Then always positioning the harasser (blue?) between you and the one hanging back.

    Were I ever in that circumstance, being encircled and harassed, I’d need to be careful not to kill them. Most of my favorite moves are highly debilitating and / or can be lethal. I know how to pull them so they do nothing, and I know how to put them full power on bags. I’m not so sure how to be that just right power level that disables without permanent damage… I’d need to make black belt for that. (A knife hand to the throat or a palm heel to the nose can be lethal. Something about throat swelling shut, crushed wind pipe, and nose bones in the brain…) So I suppose it would all come down to adrenaline level. That’s my biggest worry.

  66. Larry Ledwick says:

    My instructor taught that arms crossed ready stance, It provides protection for the mid-body and it is already half way to protecting the face without being particularly theatening. He taught police defensive tactics and he would teach the cops to stand like that slightly bladed to the threat with a 3 cell maglight flashlight in their top hand.

    The top hand is the attack hand, and the bottom hand is the defense hand against any move by the threat.

    He also lured the idiot in by telling him he could not hear him so the kid got so close he was within the close striking range with no foot movement.

    See illustration 79 on page 49 of this book. Bruce Tegner was one of the first American martial arts instructors that published instructions for the public, my instructor used his early books as the basis for his initial training and then went on from there as the student advanced. He like Bruce borrowed techniques from lots of styles and taught students to explore options and find what worked for them.

    https://www.jumpjet.info/Offbeat-Internet/More/PC/Bruce_Tegner-Self-Defense.pdf

  67. Larry Ledwick says:

    By they way now Chili is blowing up too with violent protests.
    (France)
    (UK)
    (Hongkong)
    (Chili)
    (Lebanon)
    (Catalan)
    (Indonesia)

    Looks like the Make Our Country Great Again wave is kicking off protests against the local corrupt establishment governments all over the world.

  68. Power Grab says:

    @ EM re: “One of the problems is that the good bacteria often keep the fungi and molds under control. Kill off the bacteria, the fungi take over.”

    Bingo! :-)

  69. Larry Ledwick says:

    There are very few things that the VLC media player won’t play.
    (free down load – open source)
    https://www.videolan.org/vlc/index.html

  70. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ooops I hate it when reality finally gets noticed and they have to figure out how to fight the the consequences of their open immigration policies.

    https://barenakedislam.com/2019/10/19/germans-police-officers-are-training-for-potential-civil-war-conditions-in-anticipation-of-a-new-nationwide-wave-of-islamic-terrorism/

  71. p.g.sharrow says:

    When I was young and tough I could let an attacker get in a good lick before I took them down. BUT, now as a Senior citizen, no way will I let a 20 something attacker have a chance to get up again…pg

  72. Another Ian says:

    “A Russian documentary on Gretta Thunburg. Please, I recommend a viewing.

    https://youtu.be/SBd6Uj_AGX8

    http://joannenova.com.au/2019/10/weekend-unthreaded-282/#comment-2207469

  73. Another Ian says:

    More Joe

    “Joe Biden’s Family Has Been Cashing in on His Career for Decades. Democrats Need to Acknowledge That.”

    https://theintercept.com/2019/10/09/joe-hunter-biden-family-money/

  74. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    That youtube gives me hope. Clearly the Russians have clue. I was able to pick out some of their words so my Russian isn’t entirely gone ;-) I never was very good at it… But at least it looks like there will be one corner of civilization surviving the Gang Green…

    @Sidebar On Slackware:

    I’m presently typing this on a Slackware Linux install on the Rock64 machine. (Newly installed). It seems to be relatively bug free. (You may remember that on the RockPro64 there were a few issues – most likely related to it being very new hardware and a new port with zero history).

    On the Rock64, it seems to be just fine. The browser came up quick and it seems to be very fast. It can run YouTube videos (and the sound works!) with all 4 cores heavily, but not fully, loaded up. Oh, and NO /etc/machine-id HOORAY!!!

    Faster and more responsive than the other operating systems ( I think).

    I’m going to run on it for “a while” and see if I can get comfortable with things like adding packages and such.

    I’ve basically decided on a hierarchy of what to run that goes like this:

    Devuan on anything that has a port that works. (Presently PC & R.Pi, maybe XU4 )
    Slackware on anything with a clean port. (Rock64, Orange Pi One, maybe Odroid C1, C2)
    Gentoo on anything else that has been around long enough to have a port done, but where neither Devuan nor Slackware is running and stable.
    If all else fails, run Armbian until I can move up the food chain a step or two…

    So this install of Slackware on the Rock64 is looking like my first move into this new paradigm. So far it’s quite nice and is correctly doing most of what I do on a daily basis. With luck this becomes a “done deal” after a few days of settling in.

    Then I’ll look around for what other of my boards have a working clean Slackware available. (Several do not. Especially the newer and faster boards)

    I’m presently thinking I’ll try Gentoo on one of the boards in any case. It looks like the R. Pi and Pine64 both have fairly straight forward Gentoo installs available, so likely one of them. Once I can property do a build and set things use USE flags I’ll expand the Gentoo domain to some of the other boards. Likely one of the Odroids or the Orange Pi One boards. It will depend on what kind of clean “how to” docs I can find.

    At that point I ought not have much use for anything SystemD other than on the very new boards where there’s not been enough time for ports to complete.

    Basically the purge of SystemD from my life is accelerating and I’m willing to take on some tech work to get it done. I’ll be posting what worked, what was easy, and what didn’t work or was a PITA to try. So far, installing Slackware on the Rock64 has been easy…I got the image from:
    https://wiki.pine64.org/index.php/ROCK64_Software_Release#Slackware

  75. Larry Ledwick says:

    This is an interesting little gadget for military or police folks who need to cut a lock or rebar quickly, during an assault entry.

    A muzzle brake/flash hider designed to allow point blank fire into a lock hasp etc. with armor piercing steel core ammo.

  76. Another Ian says:

    Some heavy reading

    “Durham’s Trail Leading to SSCI – Ali Watkins Never Slept With James Wolfe – It Was a Cover Story….”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/10/20/durhams-trail-leading-to-ssci-ali-watkins-never-slept-with-james-wolfe-it-was-a-cover-story/#more-174163

  77. YMMV says:

    This story is going to end up longer and more complicated than War and Peace.
    But I did pick up this nice tidbit from the comments: Demo☭rats.

  78. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    Well, I finished the Heavy Reading… now my head is stuffed up, my eyes are watering, and my neck is stiff… Just OMG was there nobody on the Democrat side with any shred of morality?

    If ever there were an argument for term limits on politicians AND the top level of agencies, that’s it. Fire the lot of them and start over…

  79. Another Ian says:

    Maybe that “suprise POV” is some of your answer?

  80. Another Ian says:

    And hopefully “Those that the gods wish to destroy they first make confident”

  81. Another Ian says:

    “WHO’S WHO IN THE SYRIAN WAR ZOO? PART 1 and Part 2”

    https://www.pickeringpost.com/

  82. Larry Ledwick says:

    Tornado hit Dallas tonight.

  83. A C Osborn says:

    Why was there apparently no warning?

  84. Larry Ledwick says:

    I was not watching the weather at the time so cannot speak to warnings. With all the modern means of warning (red alert text messages on phones etc.) I doubt it was without warning, although sometimes the warning window is very short if weather service under estimates how things will work out.

    Radar hook echo indication of a tornado only appears after the tornado is in the final stages of tightening up its circulation, may only be 5 minutes or so between when there is a clear hook echo on radar and the funnel forms at ground level and begins causing damage.

    Luckily this appears to have not been a very strong tornado as structures were damaged severely but not totally destroyed which provides some shelter for occupants during the storm passage.

    https://heavy.com/news/2019/10/dallas-tornado-map-path/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7596711/Devastating-aerial-footage-shows-destruction-caused-Dallas-tornado.html

    Reporting in this item above of winds of 111 mph which makes this a pretty weak tornado.
    It takes winds near 180 mph before it starts tossing cars around and that sort of extreme behavior begins.

  85. Larry Ledwick says:

    Current border wall status from US Border Patrol Chief.

  86. Another Ian says:

    Sounds like good news

    “Greenpeace’s Sea of Red”

    https://risk-monger.com/2019/10/19/greenpeaces-sea-of-red/

  87. YMMV says:

    Every religion has a mythology to support it. Some of these we can laugh at; some are too close to home for that. Beatle John made a comment once comparing their popularity with Jesus. It was judged not funny. Times change. But each religion still has its fundamentalists who believe in the letter of the holy books and not in their spirit.

    “How does religion promote the moral discipline and virtue needed to support free government?
    First, it gives us the right rules to live by. The Founding generation were Christians. They believed that the Judeo-Christian moral system corresponds to the true nature of man. Those moral precepts start with the two great commandments – to Love God with your whole heart, soul, and mind; and to Love Thy Neighbor as Thyself.”
    https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/attorney-general-william-p-barr-delivers-remarks-law-school-and-de-nicola-center-ethics

    Is it possible to throw away the mythology and dogmas of the Christian religion (or any other) and still keep ethics and morality? Throw away the old ways without any new ways to replace them. Is that progress if the result is anarchy?

  88. Larry Ledwick says:

  89. jim2 says:

    You know, I was thinking. :)

    Maybe the way to solve some gender-confusion problems is to adapt and give them what they are asking for. So in sports for example, have cis-gender women (real women), trans-gender-women (but biological males) , cis-gender men (real men) , and trans-gender men (but biological females). Four categories!

    Well, I’m not sure I’ve got the definitions right, but the four categories should work nonetheless.

  90. H.R. says:

    @jim2 – Yah, but… what about the old East German “Women’s” teams? Where do they fit in? ;o)

    Maybe there should be a cyborg category, too [grin].

  91. Larry Ledwick says:

    Do it like they do in racing – drug enhanced (compare supercharged in racing)
    Also in racing the separate categories based on engine type displacement, so ffor athletes there should be muscle mass classes.

    I am sure you could narrow it down to only 30 – 40 classes with a little effort.

  92. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well they are losing in the fund raising battle so this may not be humor.

    https://babylonbee.com/news/democratic-party-now-selling-official-riot-supplies

  93. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like Tulsi Gabbard is being a bit casual with Military regulations regarding using images of herself in uniform in campaign materials.

    View at Medium.com

  94. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    I suspect it is campaign staff more than Tulsi herself; BUT she is responsible for her staff.

    That said, the linked article is promoting a competitor AND smearing in character. That all leads me to class it as “Dirty Tricks Smearing” . I strongly down rank any dirty tricks crap…. it may well have some kernel of truth in it, but the packaging makes it too slimy to swallow…

    So is Tulsi pushing her military background? Certainly. Is there any real chance folks think the lack of a standard disclaimer will say “Military Endorced!”? Nope. Is there a pattern of this rule being asymmetrically applied to folks the DNC wants to harm? Looks that way…..

    So I’m not going to lose sleep over it.

    Tulsi has near zero odds of becomming the nominee anyway.

  95. Larry Ledwick says:

    An interesting observation on Tulsi G from Sarah Hucklebee

  96. p.g.sharrow says:

    @larry; Hillary bragged that she always tailored her message to suit the wants of that particular audience. Always the manipulative Lawyer arguing her case, making or hiding the evidence as needed…pg

  97. jim2 says:

    HRC on control:

    Back in Nixon days there were just three commercial broadcast television networks, plus dominant newspapers. Now, she says, “I think it’s a lot harder for Americans to know what they’re supposed to believe.”

    She tells the story of dealing with questions from reporter Sam Donaldson in the 1970s, rather than today’s myriad online media competitors. “It was a much more controllable environment,” she laments.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/hillary-clinton-finds-more-to-deplore/ar-AAIZHxX

  98. philjourdan says:

    @Larry – in deference to Sarah Hucklebee, I do not buy it. What this is doing is showing Hillary as loony tunes. And the one thing that the clintons have NEVER done is sacrifice for anyone or thing but themselves.

  99. Larry Ledwick says:

    It makes a bit of sense to me if they know they are going to get blown out, save face while losing.

    Split off the establishment / never trump republicans and maybe the combined draw of the hard left and Tulsi could keep Trump from winning so big or at least be a good excuse to avoid losing too much credibility.

    I am sure that in Washington DC there is a lot of back room chatter she has access to that gives her a clue about the real agenda ( she also probably has access to the real in house election polling showing how such a split would shake out.

    That said like you, I have reached the point I don’t take any political statement at face value because both for strategic reasons and just the nature of the beast they can never say what they really believe to the public, we are just a herd of sheep trying to decide which sheep dog to pay attention too in their view.

  100. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting item on wild fires ignited by bullet impacts and hot fragments going into sun baked vegetation.

    (also a spectacular extreme ultra high speed video footage of bullet impacts.
    Special note of how the shock wave from the nose impact travels through the body of the bullet and blows the back of the bullet apart when it reaches the bullet base. )

    https://wildfiretoday.com/2013/12/05/researchers-study-ignition-of-wildfires-by-rifle-bullets/

  101. E.M.Smith says:

    One of those stray thoughts…..

    You may know that some time ago Grumpy Cat expired. His ugly and grumpy expression now sorely missed.

    But… Perhaps…

    Might Grumpy Cat be replaced in those iconic unhappy images with…

    Grumpy Gretta? Just wondering at the similarities…

  102. Another Ian says:

    From “the internet never forgets department”

    “1998 Remarks From Biden Surface After He Attacks Trump’s ‘Lynching’ Remarks”

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/1998-remarks-from-biden-surface-after-he-attacks-trumps-lynching-remarks

  103. A C Osborn says:

    E M, I posted a Video about a project called Safire the other day, I am not sure if you looked at it.
    I have since found other videos, the latest one is September this year.
    The science is fascinating and strongly suggests that solar scientists have it wrong and they are confirming the Electric Universe theory.
    The latest tests with an added catalyst are showing some amazing transmutation of elements and now they have achieved getting more energy out than they put in.
    Here is their latest presentation.

  104. E.M.Smith says:

    @A.C. Osborn:

    Yup, I saw it. Very interesting stuff. Right now my mind-share is on Slackware / Gentoo, but I do want to do a “dive” into it shortly.

    I’m pretty sure our ideas about the sun are quite wrong and those about transmutation of light elements very wrong… We’ve seen it happen in way too many places that it ought not happen.

  105. llanfar says:

    Related to that…

  106. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting how rabbit holes sometimes lead to interesting results.

    On twitter I saw this quote:
    “Do not quote laws to men with swords.” -Pompey Magnus

    So I naturally jumped down the rabbit hole to read a bit of background on Pompey.
    That led me to this page – As I read through it, it struck me how the political intrigue of the late Republic of Rome is remarkably similar to what we are seeing today.

    https://www.britannica.com/biography/Pompey-the-Great/The-First-Triumvirate

  107. Larry Ledwick says:

    Are they training the next generation of unpaid Uber drivers?

    https://twitter.com/i/events/1187013564491452416

  108. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting quote in this article

    The United States is in no position to mediate when their own government is in the middle of overthrowing their president.

    Mullah Agha Jan Mutasim, Spokesperson for Taliban Party

    https://lauraloomer.us/2019/10/23/afghanistan-pelosi-impairs-u-s-foreign-policy-in-a-clear-act-of-mutiny/

  109. E.M.Smith says:

    @per 9 hour detour in Sydney:

    Here, there’s a boutique coastal community named Santa Cruz. It is normally obout 1/2 hour to get over the coastal mountains, 23 miles worth, to the ocean, or to silicon vally from there. (Then they have a 1/2 hour to an hour of normal commute added.) So some folks pay up and take the 1.5 hour (3 both ways) commute for the “special” ambiance…

    Well, every year a storm or two puts a tree or landslide on the one road.

    At that point most folks stay home… but the workaround is to go via Gilroy and add about 2 or 3 hours one way. Now add it up… that’s about 6 to 9 hours IF you go to work… but only 4 or so to get home if the slide happens when you are at work…

    I don’t and won’t live there, special or not…

  110. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ref the Kurds and Turks

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/military-leader-of-syrian-kurds-thanks-trump-after-permanent-cease-fire-announced_3125365.html

    Sometimes you just have to get people’s attention before you can negotiate a solution to a problem.

  111. Larry Ledwick says:

    The times they are a changing:

    https://madworldnews.com/gop-congresswoman-schiff/

  112. jim2 says:

    Austin, Texas is looking up to its idol of the West, SF, and seeks to emulate it. However, there have been a couple of little glitches …

    Following reports of violence, used needles, and feces littering the streets of Austin and endangering Texas residents, Governor Greg Abbott today sent a letter to Mayor Steve Adler demanding he and the Austin City Council address the growing homelessness crisis by November 1, 2019. If meaningful reforms are not implemented by then, the Governor will direct every applicable state agency to act to fulfill his responsibility to protect the health and safety of Texans in Austin’s jurisdiction.

    https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-sends-letter-to-mayor-adler-regarding-homelessness-crisis-in-austin

    And then there’s this …

    AUSTIN, Texas – A new Political Action Committee, or PAC, has formed aiming to force recall elections for Austin Mayor Steve Adler and several of the more recently-elected Council Members.

    The Austinite who started the petition says it was recent discussions over homeless ordinances that pushed her over the edge.

    “We just don’t feel like they’re listening to the people that pay the taxes,” said Sharon Blythe.

    https://www.fox7austin.com/news/pac-formed-to-recall-mayor-adler-five-council-members

  113. Larry Ledwick says:

    No big surprise here – like Capone some obscure regulation will be what burns these folks.

    https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2019/10/23/new-report-reveals-climate-change-protesters-are-being-paid-may-be-in-trouble-because-of-it/

  114. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well this adds a new dimension to what is going on in the middle east if the situation is actually as stated.

    https://truepundit.com/deep-state-vows-payback-after-trump-disrupts-millions-in-illegal-drug-trafficking-cash-kickbacks-from-syria/

  115. Larry Ledwick says:

    Fires in Sonoma county tonight. Recommending mandatory evacuations for those at risk.

    https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&vertical=default&q=fire%20healdsburg&src=tyah

  116. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    I’d heard speculation of CIA Drug running and there was evidence that the CIA & Co. were overthrowing governments, but only lately has the depth and reach of the pattern become clear.

    What Occam says is happening is that there IS a USA Deep State, but it coordinates with (and may be controlled by) a Globalist Cabal. Un-elected and amoral. (Being kind…). That group is massively running illegal momeymaking schemes (including at least drugs AND shakedowns ala Biden) in the $ Billions (where the UN $200 Billion /year Climate Grift was to be exemplar). In support of this, they were deploying US Forces (and “coalitions”) to overthrow non-compliant governments and install cooperative corrupt ones.

    This also fits the Russia Narrative. Why Russia? An interesting question… Post USSR collapse, they flooded “advisors” in to take over the businesses there. Then Putin started to take down the “Oligarchs” and threw out Soros rand his ilk, pissing in their beer. Putin is “evil” because he is working for the Russian People and against the Globalist Corruption. Then Trump threatens to clean up the USA too… so he gets smeared via shouting he is in cahoots with the guy they’ve spent decades painting as the embodyment of evil.

    Classic damning by association coupled with their effective demonization of Putin (where most Americans had no reason to question).

    It also resolves why The Russian People so love Putin. As a sidebar: I’ve watched a fair amount of Putin, including his life history, and speeches only in Russian (but subtitled). My overall impression of him is a moral leader truly working for his people, but willing to use KGB dirty tricks to hold power and keep the rot out.

  117. Another Ian says:

    “Too far” must be a lot further than we thought

    “Seattle School says Maths is racist, used to oppress people of color”

    http://joannenova.com.au/2019/10/seattle-school-says-maths-is-racist-used-to-oppress-people-of-color/#comment-2210147

  118. H.R. says:

    As if their subscriptions weren’t already plummeting enough…

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/white-house-wapo-nyt-subscriptions

    President Trump has ordered government subscriptions to the NYT and WaPo to be cancelled.

    It never occurred to me that the Federal Government is probably the main source of their remaining subscribers. I’d be curious to see what their circulation is after the order takes effect.

  119. E.M.Smith says:

    There’s a huge number of subscriptions for all sorts of lobbies and waiting rooms and “officials” in all sorts of departments and… I wonder if the Library Of Congress will be exempt?

  120. Another Ian says:

    A rush on popcorn?

    “When The FBI Does It, That Means That It’s Not Illegal”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2019/10/24/when-the-fbi-does-it-that-means-that-its-not-illegal-112/

  121. Larry Ledwick says:

    Related to above, the investigation is now a criminal investigation.

  122. jim2 says:

    Dimowit Congresswomen Katie Hill now has some pix on the internet of her naked holding a bong. She had an affair with a female aid along with her husband – occasionally a threesome. I don’t care what other people do in this regard, but after all the careless sexual charges aimed at Trump, it’s nice to see the Dimowits get their comeuppance.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7609835/Katie-Hill-seen-showing-Nazi-era-tattoo-smoking-BONG-NAKED.html

  123. H.R. says:

    @jim2 re Katie Hill – The problem is that it was an aid/staffer and after a bunch of scandals in the ’80s and ’90s, Congress made it a no-no to ‘get happy’ with anyone under you (double entendre unavoidable, but fun anyhow).

    Hill is in deep doo-doo over that. I don’t know off the top of my head what the penalty is, but I believe it is sufficiently unpleasant.

  124. llanfar says:

  125. Another Ian says:

    “Stunning, Potentially Game-Changing, Court Filing by Flynn Defense Lawyer Sidney Powell…”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/10/25/stunning-potentially-game-changing-court-filing-by-flynn-defense-lawyer-sidney-powell/#more-174548

  126. Larry Ledwick says:

    Would be even funnier if this was not out of the realm of possibility.

    https://babylonbee.com/news/motorcycle-that-identifies-as-bicycle-sets-world-cycling-record

  127. Larry Ledwick says:

    If this poll is anywhere close to accurate the Dems are toast for years.
    They have taken the black vote for granted too long and done too little for them and a lot of them took President Trumps comment “what have you got to lose” to heart and gave him a chance. They are now getting the pay off of the best economy in a life time.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/10/boom-trump-approval-up-to-42-with-black-males-makes-2020-election-impossible-for-democrats/

  128. H.R. says:

    @Larry L – wOw! Last poll results I saw was 30%-32% (from memory).

    I’m thinking it’s higher, though. Just about any poll regarding President Trump probably needs 10% added if the stat is for something favorable to President Trump.

    The lesson the Democrats learned from the 2016 election is that they underestimated Trump and didn’t cheat enough.

    I think they still underestimate President Trump, and the fact that the YSM lies and gaslighting isn’t playing in Peoria anymore, they will under-cheat again in 2020.

  129. Another Ian says:

    FWIW

    “McCabe wrongful dismissal case.

    Andy McCabe just imploded and dropped his lawsuit against the DOJ/Barr with the stipulation that he doesn’t have to pay attorney’s fees.

    https://twitter.com/RoscoeBDavis1/status/1187894463944888321

    Via https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2019/10/general-michael-flynns-lawyer-sidney-powell-has-done-the-world-an-incredible-service.html

  130. YMMV says:

    “Anyone remember Venezuela? Argentina?”

    Gone, but not forgotten.

    From Fox News today:
    The U.S. government has said around 20,000 Cuban troops and agents have been working in Venezuela to protect Maduro’s government.

    Do they still have troops in the Congo too?

    And Argentina is holding an election.
    Macri took office in 2015 promising to root out corruption and eliminate poverty but is now seeking a second term amid increasing poverty, a sharp depreciation of Argentina’s peso and one of the world’s worst inflation rates.

    He is shouldering most of the blame from voters for the economic woes and they made their frustration clear in primaries in August, when Macri’s share of the votes cast trailed Fernández by a nearly 16-percentage point margin.
    https://www.france24.com/en/20191025-argentina-s-centre-left-eyes-return-to-power-in-weekend-presidential-election

    The Peronists before him ran the country down and the debts up. How do you fix that without pain? The voters are expected to say forget the pain, give us the easy money. More Peronists.
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/24/macri-fernandez-kirchner-argentina-president-elections-economy-imf-debt/

    Bringing this back home, as leftist candidates promise free everything and fiscal conservatives hide somewhere, almost everybody assumes that the promises will be paid for by taxing the rich. Aside from the fact that the rich don’t have that much money, that’s not how it works. We borrow money to pay for the things we can’t afford. On the theory that we (future generations) will have the money to pay off those debts. The debts just keep building up. Eventually, the debtors default. Then, welcome to Argentina.

    So that’s my key take away for those who don’t want to study political science and economics.
    Socialism is where you can still convince enough capitalists to lend you money. Communism is where you run out of Capitalist money.

  131. jim2 says:

    Didn’t Obama in essence remove sanctions from Cuba? Can’t we bring some pain to bear on them until they remove the troop from Venezuela (if the troops are actually there)?

  132. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well I take it this is our hint regarding who Soros is going to back hard and who is going to get taken out by scandals in the coming months.

    Soros says Elizabeth Warren is the most qualified Democratic candidate for president (which is setting a really low bar for all the other candidates to fail to clear.

  133. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jim2:

    Just saw on the news that we’ve announced no more flights to airports in Cuba other than Havana after (some date, maybe Dec.) so folks ARE starting to tighten things again.

    @Larry L.:

    OK, now we can use that to gauge what it is Soros desires to achieve. He WANTS a fool and rabid Socialist to take over. He knows that will ruin the economy and currency, so we know he wants to do his usual game of shorting then destroying.

    This also, using the negative space property, tells us EXACTLY who is WORST for America. Lizzy Warren (… took a tax and gave the voters 40 whacks, when she saw what she had done, gave the country 41…)

    Nice to know who to NOT let near the White House…

  134. Larry Ledwick says:

    Speaking of destroying the economy – object lesson
    One US Dollar would buy 3 million liters of gasoline in Venezuela.

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/08/05/world/politics-diplomacy-world/3-million-liters-1-far-can-venezuela-go-raising-price-worlds-cheapest-gas/

  135. jim2 says:

    The unintended consequences of socialism? … capitalism!!!

    The bottom line for Generac: $100 million to $200 million of annual revenue, perhaps as soon as 2022, Jagdfeld said in an interview in New York on Friday, a day that saw his shares hit an all-time high. California, with its generally mild climate, wasn’t a big market for Generac until the blackouts began. While an expansion in the state will take time, Generac is gearing up a sales force and a marketing push to make it work.

    “It is a situation where we see a long-term upside for building awareness for our products,” Jagdfeld said. Generac expects California will get about $1 million of the $10 million spent this year on infomercials, he said, and will open an office in Sacramento for training, inventory and retail next year.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/decade-darkness-california-spurring-generator-222156000.html

  136. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    Saw a video by a undercover tourist in Venezuela where he was at a gas station. As the attendants had not been paid in months, they didn’t bother charging for the gasoline. Folks just drove up and filled up… WHEN the gas arrived… that wasn’t always or often…

    @Jim2:

    Yup. Lots of folks will take matters in to their own hands. The contents of ONE big freezer can cost as much as a generator. Lose it once, find out it can and will happen again, you go buy a generator. You WILL be out that money, might as well have it be only once and without the inconvenience…

    I’ve had one continuously since Gov. Grey “Out” Davis was in charge… Used it a dozen times, at least… People adapt.

  137. Larry Ledwick says:

    Not only Generac, but electricians will be installing transfer switches and battery packs in a lot of homes with grid tied solar. Might even create some market value for over age EV car batteries, not good enough for daily use on the highway, but good enough to hold a float charge off the grid / and solar, and carry the load for a home for 4 – 5 hours a day during black outs and to cover the start up delay of the gen set when the grid drops.

  138. Larry Ledwick says:

    This just popped up on twitter – file it away for future reference, details have not been released yet – Sunday morning shows?

    Donald J. Trump
    ‏Verified account
    @realDonaldTrump
    7:23 PM – 26 Oct 2019 (MDT)
    Something very big has just happened!

  139. H.R. says:

    PDJT – “Something very big has just happened!”

    Ooooo… cliffhanger! I’m on tenterhooks.

  140. Larry Ledwick says:

    Still not confirmed but the chatters is all pointing this way:

  141. Larry Ledwick says:

  142. Larry Ledwick says:

    (sigh! – the stupid is strong in this one – or his buddies have a lock on electric car sales or related stocks)

    https://dailycaller.com/2019/10/25/schumer-gas-cars-plan/

  143. Larry Ledwick says:

    Meanwhile from news sources out side the US

    جريدة النهارالكويتية
    ‏Verified account
    @naharkw
    Follow @naharkw
    More
    #عاجل- الولايات المتحدة : غارة استهدفت زعيم داعش ابو بكر البغدادي و ادت الى مقتله
    Translated from Arabic by Microsoft
    #عاجل- United States: A raid targeting ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and killing him

  144. Another Ian says:

    E.M. Are you included in the latest Californian “practicing darkness”?

  145. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well looks like the rumor is confirmed at least in general – the specifics will probably be revealed in the morning.

    POTUS Press ✩
    ‏@POTUSPress
    3 minutes ago
    More
    Early report that President Trump approved a Special Operations Raid targeting ISIS Leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Military sources say he’s Dead.

    POTUS Press ✩

    @POTUSPress
    8 minutes ago
    More
    Confirmed: President Trump will address the nation at 9AM Sunday morning with a major announcement

  146. Larry Ledwick says:

    Just a thought – what if the Turkey Kurd and US troop movements were all a setup for this raid?

    Will have to take a close look at how the location of the raid matches up with the recent troop movements.

    The Turkish advance could have forced Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to move or at least reveal his location by disposition of forces etc.

  147. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    It looks like PG&E is turning off power in the hilly areas and not in the major city valley flats of Silicon Valley, so no, I’m not affected (so far…).

    Being near the airport likely also helps ;-) It would cost $Millions to chop power to the Santa Clara County / Silicon Valley center area…

  148. H.R. says:

    The Iowahawk is at it again. Quite topical and should be read before the 9:00 am Whitehouse address. It’s a firsthand report from Paradise.

    Language warning! Still… too funny!
    https://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2006/06/paradise_blows.html

  149. jim2 says:

    I think the timing of the raid was politically motivated, and I approve fully!

    Trump’s announcement took up almost the entirety of Fox News Sunday which has become a Dimowit linchpin of late. So this alone cut out a huge swath of impeachment discussion.

    And otherwise, he will dominate the news cycle today. Lindsey Graham held a press conference in which he brooked no negative leaning questions about Trump. He doggedly pushed the tone of the conference into Trump-positive territory and his parting words were “This is a moment where President Trump’s worst critics should say, ‘Well done, Mr. President.” Then he walked out.

    And to state the obvious, it is a great day for the USA, Republicans, Trump, and most of all us in flyover territory (and CIO :) )

  150. Larry Ledwick says:

    An interesting item on how the left is using data mining of social media to build lists of folks that “they” identify as right wing.

    https://www.wired.com/story/free-speech-issue-antifa-data-mining/

  151. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like cleanup operations are underway as well.

    ELINT News
    ‏@ELINTNews

    MoreELINT News Retweeted Mazloum Abdî مظلوم عبدي
    #BREAKING: SDF commander confirms Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir, ISIS Spokesman & right-hand man of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has been targeted and killed in the village of Ain al-Baydah, near Jarablus, in a joint operation between the US military and SDF

  152. Larry Ledwick says:

    Why gun control will never work episode 568

    https://americangg.net/tb-recycled-soda-can-ar15/

    video that works
    [https://www.full30.com/channels/guncraft101]

    Nothing he does in that video you can’t do with hand tools like files etc. (it would just take longer and not be quite as pretty.)

  153. Larry Ledwick says:

    Real time fire map web page (turning off all tracking will break it and prevent display of the fire areas)

    https://ucanr.edu/sites/fire/Wildfire_Health_-_Safety/Current/

  154. Another Ian says:

    Larry

    Re “Why gun control will never work episode 568”

    When the Khyber Pass area can do a fair approximation of a Lee Enfield with a lathe with a wagon wheel flywheel – –

  155. Another Ian says:

    I doubt this will get the “Greta seal of Approval”

    “Pyrmonter: More from less”

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2019/10/28/pyrmonter-more-from-less/

  156. Larry Ledwick says:

    Just a normal week as our earth cools due to a quiet sun and cold outbreaks become more common and long lasting. Currently 17.6 deg F here this morning – all day yesterday was in the low to mid 20’s

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EH9s-RgU8AAjRYH.jpg.

    https://denver.cbslocal.com/2019/10/27/record-cold-likely-in-denver/

    This year feels like 1962-63 which dropped to -30 here in Denver metro area in January.
    We will see if the winter is similar this year. That winter also had some snow falls in the metro area measured in feet. (we were building snow tunnels in the front yard and diving into drifts as we walked to and from school)

  157. Larry Ledwick says:

    Grrr stray period broke that link.

  158. jim2 says:

    If we are entering a cold period, the sat global temp isn’t reflecting it …

  159. H.R. says:

    @Larry L re cooling and hard Winter.

    We’re having a dead normal Fall here in the Eastern Mid-west. cdquarles and I were comparing notes over the summer and it seems we were both in the no-man’s land between the rain and cold. We did dry out and got some heat, though we never hit any 100-degree (F) temperatures.

    So far, it’s been a nice step-down from 80s to 70s to 60s and it looks like the 50s and 40s will be right on schedule for November. Who knows if such a ‘normal’ pattern will hold?

    Contrast that with 18 years ago, the second year we were in this house, and I was amazed that I had to mow the lawn the first week of December. Of course it all averaged out because January, February, March were below averages :o)

    I’m hoping Ma Nature holds that trough in place so I can escape through the mountains to Florida without encountering snow. Last year, we got lucky and our travel days were between snows. Oh, I forgot… didn’t E.M. hit snow on his way to Florida to check on his friend last year?

    Anyhow, I’m just glad heading “out West” isn’t on the schedule this Winter. It’s not looking very promising unless you’re a ski buff.

  160. cdquarles says:

    Satellite methods infer a physical temperature (internal kinetic energy) from the measured light fluxes or intensities. Take that graph with a grain of salt. Take the other folk’s graphs with a salt lick.

  161. cdquarles says:

    And yes, the cold did get to me. It has been relatively cool, with lows in the upper 30s a couple of days ago. What’s been a bit unusual is the relatively large diurnal variation. Strong southerly fetches warm it up (yay). Northerly ones cool it down (boo). October, most years, is pleasantly mild (no need for heat nor A/C). Not quite so this year. Also a bit unusual this year is that September has been our driest month and not October. Big semi-permanent High over us kept it dry and no tropical systems to break it happened in September. We did have a small tropical system come through this month, though it had merged with a cold front before coming through.

    That said, and on the upside, is that we didn’t get a killing frost in October (known to happen and not liked by many). The average first killing frost here is mid-November. We shall see what next week brings. This week is on the roller coaster … cold then warm. Expecting it to be cold at the end of the week.

  162. E.M.Smith says:

    @H.R.:

    Yes. In the Arizona desert no less
    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/01/07/cactus-knowing-what-snow-is/

    This year we will have a quasi planned run to the Chicago area in November …. I think the spouse will flg and I’ll drive the 4×4 with big tires…. and even though is is several hundred miles longer, likely do I-10 to Mississippi then north. It will depend on weather, but crossing at 7000 ft on I-40 or closer to 10, 000 in Colorado seem ill advised…

    If the weather is dodgy enough we’ll just fly & Uber it…

  163. Larry Ledwick says:

    If we are entering a cold period, the sat global temp isn’t reflecting it …

    I trust growing glaciers as a representation of the true climate more than I do satellite measurements.
    The satellite measurements although better than our horrible ground station network, still has huge delays in showing changes. It acts like a moving average and the periodic variation is right now much larger than the world wide shift in true thermal energy.

    The northern glaciers like greenland will be the first to respond to cooling and they have been growing for 3 years now.
    https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145185/major-greenland-glacier-is-growing

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/07/glacier-national-park-quietly-removes-its-gone-by-2020-signs/

    https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming-it-is-cooling-and-it-may-have-already-started/

    With lots of 2 meter thick ice in the Arctic at the low point of northern ice accumulation I am comfortable with the ice gain in Antarctica not being at the expense of the Arctic. We are currently at the seasonal low point for Arctic ice accumulation so it will be 6 – 9 months before we can see how the northern ice mass is changing.

    http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html

  164. jim2 says:

    I trust growing glaciers as a representation of the true climate more than I do satellite measurements.

    The sats measure air temperature, not total heat, so there’s that. But also there are thousands of glaciers in the world. I have no idea how many are shrinking, growing, or staying the same. But as long as the air temperature is increasing as it has been, you will have a lot of trouble convincing people the World is cooling.

  165. jim2 says:

    I found a handy glacier query tool. You can select for advancing or retreating – much more data than I care to deal with donchaknow.

    http://nsidc.org/data/glacier_inventory/query.html

  166. philjourdan says:

    This is both amusing and well anticipated. Most of us knew this to be the case with most of the green companies that scammed our dollars from a willing Obama.

    https://www.foxnews.com/auto/seized-car-collection-nets-8-2-million-at-u-s-marshals-auction

    But this is the first one that is actually getting prosecuted. Perhaps a new sheriff that is in town?

  167. cdquarles says:

    @ Jim2,
    Actually the satellites don’t measure temperature. They measure light flux (that there is light) or intensity (how much light); but not temperature. Temperatures are inferred. Actually LIG instruments, thermocouples, & etc.don’t measure temperature either. They measure a proxy for it. That these proxies may be quite complex is usually elided.

  168. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like Europe is in for a cold outbreak too!

    Meanwhile here in Colorado almost the entire state is under advisories / warnings

    ===================
    Next couple days going to be a little brisk.

    Winter Storm Warning
    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Denver CO
    834 PM MDT Mon Oct 28 2019

    ...SNOW AND COLD FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

    .A storm system will drop south out of the Northern Rockies
    tonight and Tuesday and will be centered over the Four Corners
    Tuesday night. The storm system will then track east across
    Colorado late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Snow will form ahead
    of the storm system this evening over the north central Colorado
    mountains. The snow will spread southeast early Tuesday morning
    with snow expected to begin in Denver during the morning rush
    hour.

    Snow and cold will push southeast Tuesday and Tuesday night.
    Roads are expected to be snow covered and slippery for the
    Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commute. Because this will
    be cold system, snow will be able to easily accumulate on
    roadways. Tuesday morning commute may not be difficult, but the
    roads will be snow covered for return trip home. If traveling
    Tuesday or Wednesday morning consider adjusting you travel plans.

    COZ039>041-043>046-049-291200-
    /O.CON.KBOU.WS.W.0016.191029T1200Z-191030T1800Z/
    Boulder and the western suburbs of Denver-Denver-Castle Rock-
    Greeley-Fort Morgan-Byers-Limon-Akron-
    Including the cities of Arvada, Boulder, Golden, Lakewood,
    Longmont, Aurora, Brighton, City of Denver,
    Denver International Airport, Highlands Ranch, Littleton, Parker,
    Castle Rock, Elbert, Fondis, Kiowa, Larkspur, Eaton, Fort Lupton,
    Greeley, Roggen, Brush, Fort Morgan, Goodrich, Wiggins, Bennett,
    Byers, Deer Trail, Leader, Agate, Hugo, Limon, Matheson, Akron,
    Cope, Last Chance, and Otis
    834 PM MDT Mon Oct 28 2019

    ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO
    NOON MDT WEDNESDAY...

    * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to
    12 inches.

    * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Colorado.

    * WHEN...From 6 AM Tuesday to noon MDT Wednesday.

    * IMPACTS...Travel is expected to be very difficult. The
    hazardous conditions are expected to impact the Tuesday
    evening and Wednesday morning commute. The cold wind chills as
    low as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia if
    precautions are not taken.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
    your vehicle in case of an emergency.

    The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
    be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

    &&

    $$

  169. A C Osborn says:

    The satellite temps have never reflected what is going on at the Surface ie what we actually experience.
    i am sure that is because they measure the Heat leaving the Earth for space.

    The Northern Hemisphere is not alone in being cold, there are cold records being broken in Australia as well.
    https://www.iceagenow.info/100year-cold-records-broken-in-australia/

  170. Larry Ledwick says:

    A little bit brisk this morning, and snowing, currently 16 deg F here in the western suburbs of Denver Metro area.
    Per monthly climate data so far we are 4.8 deg F below normal for the month.

    Explanation of the Preliminary Monthly Climate Data (F6) Product
    These data are preliminary and have not undergone final quality control by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Therefore, these data are subject to revision. Final and certified climate data can be accessed at the NCDC - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov.

    WFO Monthly/Daily Climate Data

    000
    CXUS55 KBOU 291008
    CF6DEN
    PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

    STATION: DENVER CO
    MONTH: OCTOBER
    YEAR: 2019
    LATITUDE: 39 52 N
    LONGITUDE: 104 40 W

    TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND
    ================================================================================
    1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
    12Z AVG MX 2MIN
    DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
    ================================================================================

    1 53 42 48 -9 17 0 0.05 0.0 0 11.0 17 20 M M 10 12 20 80
    2 65 40 53 -3 12 0 0.04 0.0 0 8.5 17 130 M M 6 1 21 50
    3 70 44 57 1 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.2 21 120 M M 5 29 160
    4 81 40 61 5 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.8 23 50 M M 2 28 50
    5 67 37 52 -3 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.8 24 120 M M 4 30 120
    6 62 40 51 -4 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.8 16 220 M M 3 21 280
    7 78 39 59 5 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.4 18 220 M M 1 23 210
    8 80 46 63 9 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.0 16 200 M M 3 20 210
    9 83 28 56 2 9 0 0.01 T 0 15.2 46 40 M M 6 167 57 30
    10 29 13 21 -32 44 0 0.19 1.0 0 11.8 26 20 M M 8 1268 36 10
    11 50 9 30 -23 35 0 0.00 0.0 T 9.2 16 220 M M 1 21 220
    12 67 27 47 -5 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.1 17 210 M M 2 22 200
    13 73 35 54 2 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.2 18 170 M M 1 22 180
    14 75 39 57 5 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.8 16 220 M M 2 19 250
    15 59 32 46 -5 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.6 25 40 M M 1 30 40
    16 80 37 59 8 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.6 20 210 M M 5 27 210
    17 81 51 66 16 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 11.1 18 220 M M 6 23 210
    18 63 30 47 -3 18 0 T 0.0 0 10.6 23 30 M M 4 3 29 50
    19 63 27 45 -5 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.3 15 200 M M 3 19 190
    20 53 33 43 -6 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 19.8 38 260 M M 6 49 270
    21 53 28 41 -8 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.1 20 10 M M 5 31 10
    22 64 23 44 -5 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 12.7 29 290 M M 3 38 300
    23 53 31 42 -6 23 0 0.01 T 0 12.3 36 350 M M 6 1 46 350
    24 42 25 34 -14 31 0 T T T 7.0 14 220 M M 4 18 210
    25 64 28 46 -2 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 10.8 18 210 M M 0 25 210
    26 76 29 53 6 12 0 T T 0 13.4 33 30 M M 4 16 45 20
    27 29 17 23 -24 42 0 0.13 1.8 0 11.8 22 20 M M 9 16 28 20
    28 21 10 16 -30 49 0 0.22 2.0 4 5.3 12 130 M M 8 1 13 150
    ================================================================================
    SM 1734 880 507 1 0.65 4.8 282.2 M 118
    ================================================================================
    AV 61.9 31.4 10.1 FASTST M M 4 MAX(MPH)
    MISC ----> # 46 40 # 57 30
    ================================================================================
    NOTES:
    # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES

    COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.

    PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2

    STATION: DENVER CO
    MONTH: OCTOBER
    YEAR: 2019
    LATITUDE: 39 52 N
    LONGITUDE: 104 40 W

    [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16

    AVERAGE MONTHLY: 46.7 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 0.65 1 = FOG OR MIST
    DPTR FM NORMAL: -4.8 DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.30 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
    HIGHEST: 83 ON 9 GRTST 24HR 0.22 ON 28-28 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
    LOWEST: 9 ON 11 3 = THUNDER
    SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS
    TOTAL MONTH: 4.8 INCHES 5 = HAIL
    GRTST 24HR 2.0 ON 28-28 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
    GRTST DEPTH: 4 ON 28 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:
    VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS
    8 = SMOKE OR HAZE
    [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW
    X = TORNADO
    MAX 32 OR BELOW: 3 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 7
    MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 3
    MIN 32 OR BELOW: 15 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 0
    MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 0

    [HDD (BASE 65) ]
    TOTAL THIS MO. 507 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 11
    DPTR FM NORMAL 124 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 14
    TOTAL FM JUL 1 529 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 3
    DPTR FM NORMAL 5

    [CDD (BASE 65) ]
    TOTAL THIS MO. 1
    DPTR FM NORMAL 0 [PRESSURE DATA]
    TOTAL FM JAN 1 916 HIGHEST SLP M ON M
    DPTR FM NORMAL 151 LOWEST SLP 29.33 ON 9

    [REMARKS]

  171. cdquarles says:

    @AC,
    No, they don’t and can’t (admitted in one of the standard textbooks). What they measure is the light they can detect leaving the Earth. Energy is energy and one form can be ‘mutated’ ;p to another; but heat is internal kinetic energy and we don’t have a direct way to measure it. We can infer it from emitted light or other proxies for it, but that’s all we can do. When the assumptions made to enable a calculation fail, the result is meaningless.

  172. Larry Ledwick says:

    Major scandal revealed (hero dog has unsavory past)

    https://babylonbee.com/news/cnn-uncovers-evidence-hero-dog-sniffed-butts

  173. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    Thanks for the Morning Chuckle! As I have a dog that also likes to sniff butts, it was a parody hoot with a bit of reality bite ;-)

    For anyone who doesn’t know: Dogs have a scent gland in their butt that says who they are, their level of health, and are they interested at the moment in a bit of puppy making. That’s why dogs “sniff butts”. It is their “greeting card” and their proposition for puppy making all in one.

    Which really does make me wonder why my dachshund keeps wanting to sniff me… it’s not like we’re on the same level… geographically or evolution wise…

  174. Another Ian says:

    There is a ribald song as to how that behaviour started which starts

    “All the doggies had a meeting and they came from near and far
    And some arrived by aeroplane and some by motor car”

    https://mudcat.org/thread.cfm?threadid=11992

  175. E.M.Smith says:

    @Another Ian:

    Oh that’s a good one!

    I’ve had this idea for a cartoon (but not the skill to draw it) of a queue of dogs entering heaven, collecting their “boom boom boom” as they enter, with this small terrier pointing at the Great Dane set on the hook labeled Great Dane on the wall and the “curator” looking like “No way dude”….

  176. Larry Ledwick says:

    More breaking news from the Babylon Bee
    Texas engages in conspiracy to entice people to move out of California.

    https://babylonbee.com/news/texas-luring-jobs-away-from-california-with-promises-of-electricity

  177. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting link buried in the post above by Another Ian on Chart of the Century

    Free down loadable on line text books

    https://open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/

  178. Another Ian says:

    “We are in the grip of a mass psychosis, a collective delusion, an infantile fantasy that we can control global weather, temperature and so on.”

    “Treating Atmospheric Apocalyptic Anxiety”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/29/treating-atmospheric-apocalyptic-anxiety/

  179. jim2 says:

    Actually the satellites don’t measure temperature. They measure light flux (that there is light) or intensity (how much light); but not temperature.

    Actually liquid-in-tube thermometers don’t measure temperature. They measure the level of liquid in the tube; but not temperature.

  180. philjourdan says:

    @Larry Ledwick – re: Babylon Bee dog story – so when does Snopes fact check it?

  181. Larry Ledwick says:

    Somebody fact checked Babylon Bee the other day but I can’t remember who it was – CNN or one of the networks I think.

    Looks like Utah set a new national cold temp record for October of -35 besting the old record of -33 set in montana in 1917
    https://www.wsls.com/weather/coldest-october-temperature-on-record-observed-in-utah

  182. Another Ian says:

    Larry

    “Looks like Utah set a new national cold temp record for October of -35 besting the old record of -33 set in montana in 1917”

    Only cold so it is weather and no climate catastrophy

  183. Larry Ledwick says:

    The FED cuts interest rates by 1/4 percent

  184. Another Ian says:

    “The Real Reasons Why Legacy Media Are Freaking Out Over Trump’s Successful Baghdadi Mission”

    https://thefederalist.com/2019/10/28/the-real-reasons-why-legacy-media-are-freaking-out-over-trumps-successful-baghdadi-mission/

  185. p.g.sharrow says:

    Other Good News, The electric power is back on up here in the hills above Chico. Finally I can end the generator shuffle that began last Friday. trying to keep the electronics backup charged, refers cold and water pumped. Hurrah!…pg

  186. E.M.Smith says:

    Congratulations P.G.!

    Down here in Silly Con Valley we never lost power… I guess they figured out that it would be a bad idea to shut down the core of the internet… and encourage all the tech companies to leave town…

    I suppose now you will get to add “Wind Weather Watch” to your daily schedule in prep for the next one… Were I you, I’d have a nice 55 Gal Drum with hand crank gas pump in it and keep it topped up. They were very common in pickups in farm country not that long ago… Or just get one of those aluminum waffle surface fuel bunkers in the back of the truck… Might be interesting to knock together some battery backup and inverter too. For immobile use there’s some heavy and cheap chemistries that work, like iron / KOH… Edison Cells.

  187. ossqss says:

    So a simple question for the group on the Cali fires we see on the news. All I have been able to find, in my limited exposure to news on such, is its all climate change induced BS. Soooo, the question is, how did these start? Power lines shut down, and I don’t see much lightning at all, so, who did it?

    Is this activists taking advantage of the situation for an agenda or what?

    I smell smoke

  188. H.R. says:

    @p.g. – Start looking harder at that steam engine to power a generator. You have plenty of fuel without having to run to town for the liquid stuff.

  189. Pingback: W.O.O.D. 30 October 2019 | Musings from the Chiefio

  190. E.M.Smith says:

    @H.R.:

    Folks have converted Briggs & Stratton engines to steam… there’s a lot of them around. Heck, I’ll give one (rototiller attached) to P.G. if he wants to convert it!

    @Ossqss:

    There are various species in California that only sprout after a fire. It takes millions of years to evolve a mechanism like that. California has been burning for that long.

    As to cause:

    That varies all over the place. Most common is lightning in storm weather and cigarettes the rest of the year. You can tell the cigarette tossing as it tends to be more in spring (windows down in nice weather) and we get a LOT of small grass fires next to the various freeways / highways.

    Then there’s cat converters starting taller grass where folks go off road and don’t think.

    Some get started by bullet sparks (but far far less than reputed) and then in summer we get a batch of “city wanna be campers” who can’t handle matches and stoves right.

    RARELY, it is a downed power line that causes a fire.

    Now for all my life we have fires in exactly the places we had them this year. The Canyons of So. Cal burning was more or less an annual thing, then someone decided to plant houses in rows in the burn chimney zones…. Sierra Nevada fires are also common. Less now than in the ’60s and ’70s but they happen. Then there’s the hills around Wine Country. Where it wasn’t interesting that a fire happened ’cause nobody lived there, it’s now full of people.

    In 1971 or so I worked the “Clear Lake Fire” for a while. It was such a bad burn year they were recruiting anyone who could walk no skilz required. I was given a Pulaski
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pulaski_(tool)
    and told to stomp, rake, or piss on any embers that got past me while chopping down any brush that looked at risk along the fire line Clear Lake is just inland from Wine Country…

    So all this has happened before. Not one bit of it is unusual. We do have a lot more people parking houses in notorious burn areas and then complaining that it isn’t like downtown San Francisco (all concrete). Fire season was far far worse in ’71 than now, but news coverage is far greater now.

    Basically, it’s a scam story being run for click bait. I suspect Gov. Nuisance is also not doing the greatest job of stopping fires early… after all, no power and fires is a great way to meet your UN Agenda goals of moving everyone into high rises in cities…

  191. ossqss says:

    @EM, my question still stands. They have always been quick to determine cause, not so much this time. In fact, I have heard of none so far. Just sayin…

  192. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    There ARE some that are arson, but usually they show up in mid-summer when the PSAs are all talking about fire danger. In fall, much less.

    Now, could this be some CDS (Climate Derangement Syndrome) person setting things alight? Yeah. Would it matter? IMHO, no. Why?

    Because proper fuel management and fire control policies and facilities ought to have kept these fires small in the first place and put them out quickly. Regardless of ignition source. We have a LOT of ignition sources and a LOT of dry land…

    Oh, and arson is usually in the “Me Too!” fire that starts in the days after another one makes the news…

    So for the Paradise Fire, as an example, there was no reason that fire ought to have been allowed to burn as long as it did before major effort was put into extinguishing it. Ditto the one currently around Wine Country. We’re talking $Billions of money in wine country. They can afford to have smoke jumpers on standby 24 x 7 AND a few $Millions of water tankers. It DOES burn. it WILL burn. All you can do it put it out quick. Regardless of ignition source. They either know that, or are deliberately ignorant…

    So yeah, some nutbars might be lighting things off. It has always been that way. The excuse changes decade to decade… but the reality stays the same. Clear brush. Don’t have trees with a fall line that reach your structure. Have a large water tank. Keep what is growing near the house wet. Don’t have shake roofs (concrete tile best) and have metal shutters for the windows. Etc. etc… But almost none of the new arrivals do any of that and the folks buying homes in Arroyo Smokeo are clueless noobs…

    Every Single Year for over 1/2 century I’ve seen a fire somewhere in a SoCal arroyo. Worst when there’s a Santa Anna wind. But just like the fools who build houses with a great ocean view on a cliff over the ocean (that has eroded back every single year…) folks like their house on the hillside in the arroyo…

  193. Terry Jackson says:

    Back in the day Dad worked for the Flood Control District in Los Angeles. The big concern for floods was a storm in the San Gabriel Mountains where water spewed out of a canyon and caused the flood. The accepted fire frequency was 35 years on average. Most of the hillsides are steeper than the angle of repose. The San Gabriels held a number of records for rainfall intensity. So, Frequent fires, High intensity rainfall, very steep slopes, high stream bed gradient, and you have a monster flood potential. But consider what it takes to have an average of 35 years between fires, and then , knowing that, continue building while doing nothing about vegetation management or kindling wood roofing.

    October and November have always had high winds along the West Coast. See the Columbus Day Storm.

  194. llanfar says:

    From Endchan:

    “The whole world changed in the last few hours.”

    Evidence from the Al-Baghdadi compound connects players in DC to ISIS operatives, and the origins of ISIS.

    This is why Trump tweeted “Something big just happened.”

    Must-listen, starting at 2:30:

    “Special forces is going through documents seized in that raid the other night, and they have found state department cables TO these people FROM our state department.

    Cables from our state department to these ISIS bastards. And I’m being told that BHO, HRC, Rice, Cl@pper, Brenn@n, and C0mey are in deeper shit than we thought.

    There is incriminating evidence and MI is going through it and they’re going to get it over to the DOJ. We found evidence as to the origins of ISIS. And it goes back to Bengazi.

    We are specifically directly saying, that we are being told, that when our military took over that compound they found boxes and boxes of documents, not to mention the laptops, and our MI is currently processing all the evidence from that compound, and DOJ people are already looking at this. Durham is working his ass off and has eyeballs on this right now.”

  195. ossqss says:

    I get it EM, but there has bee NO mention of ignition source for quite a few days. That always comes fast.

    It is quite apparent the poor forestry management policies followed over several decades of “Don’t touch that natural state” has absolutely created the tinderbox that has been around for a while in Cali. Self inflicted to a great degree IMHO.

    Add non-nature ignition sources and we have disaster.

    IIRC, 5% of forest fires were caused by nature from the last study I read.

  196. Another Ian says:

    E.M.

    Re that drum of petrol. If what you get as petrol now is like ours don’t leave the pump in the drum – put the bung back. The stuff here goes stale pretty quickly if left open.

  197. Another Ian says:

    “Famed pathologist Michael Baden says Jeffrey Epstein’s death was homicide ”

    https://nypost.com/2019/10/30/famed-pathologist-michael-baden-says-jeffrey-epsteins-death-was-homicide/

  198. Larry Ledwick says:

    Twitter had a video from dash cam showing the moment a tree blew into a power line and ignited the Getty fire. In high wind conditions accidental ignition due to power lines is very common, usually one of a couple types of incidents. High winds can get the power lines whipping violently if their natural oscillation rate is just right. This can cause the lines to break or strike each other producing a shower of sparks. Also trees blow down or branches can break off and take down live power lines or drop across the hot lines and short them causing transformers to explode,or arching ignites the branch and it drops embers on the ground.

  199. Larry Ledwick says:

    This clip not only shows the power hit, but also the initial ignition points beside the highway as the car drives past the are where the arching occurred.

  200. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    Thinking back on all the big fire stories, many (most?) of them have no known cause. Frankly, of the ones where there is a stated cause, IMHO, it is often just made up. Someone says “looks like a camp fire” or “cigarette” and the news runs with that. They don’t have full on arson squads working these things. It’s mostly a bunch of guy with shovels and axes on a bus…

    When it is shown to be arson, it is usually because someone accidentally saw the fire being set, or the perp was caught driving out just as the fire started growing.

    We used to have a lot of fire spotter stations, but it looks like they are mostly gone now. So “some guy” tosses a cigarette from the car doing 60 in the hills and 20 minutes later a fire report comes in. How can anyone say it was started that way? Just look at the start near a road and assume it.

    So I’m not saying these are all just the regular, nor am I saying they can’t be arson. I’m just saying there isn’t much you can know about the start and what is put out is often just some guy’s guess. So it just isn’t a very productive place to put brain time…

  201. Ossqdz says:

    For the record, I never mentioned arson. Just sayin

    On to Halloween!

    What is that anyhow? ;-)

  202. p.g.sharrow says:

    I once started a wild fire in dry grass by nearly stepping on a rooster pheasant. He exploded into flight and up into the overhead high voltage lines, shorting between them, and came down in flames into the dry grass and weeds setting them on fire!. Looked like a WWI plane being shot down in flames!
    The fire department showed up to help extinguish the flames. They asked this 9 year old how the fire started in that field, I told them and they said, OH sure! right, we are supposed to believe that a pheasant started this fire. So I took them over to the point where the fire started and pointed to the toasted bird. They left shaking their heads…pg

  203. H.R. says:

    @p.g. – What was for dinner that night? ;o)

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