Sun & Temperatures – Valentina Zharkova

Has an obligatory genuflect to “carbon” in the last minute (we do our thing they do there’s) to avoid being burned for heresy but otherwise good.

Says cold minimum will be in solor cycle 26, and a bit warmer than Maunder Minimum at 0.8 C down average. Also at the end references some cold weather events that happened recently, so worth followup.

Bottom line is cold happening now and will get worse for about 20 to 30 years.

23 minutes:

Subscribe to feed

About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Global Cooling and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

39 Responses to Sun & Temperatures – Valentina Zharkova

  1. jdseanjd says:

    She did not discuss the likely time lag for temperatures to drop as the oceans give up their heat.
    I read somewhere ~ 85 years? & that the oceans absorb & transport around our globe about 22 times the heat the atmosphere does?
    That will be interesting.
    John Doran.

  2. Larry Ledwick says:

    I think it is a mistake to directly correlate a quiet sun to cooling. The earth (or any object) when exposed to an input of energy acts as an integrator of that energy input, like a capacitor charging with electricity, it lags behind the input and the total energy stored is not dependant on just the intensity of the input (voltage) but also the pulse duration (wave form of the pulses)

    I think a trailing average of the area under the sun spot curves is likely a better fit (with a lag included) for thermal inertia.

    https://earthsky.org/space/solar-cycle-24-25-sunspot-predictions

    With that in mind (area under the curve for last few cycles) our current cycle most closely matches the cycle that ended about 1850 which was preceded by a few strong sun spot cycles.
    The late 1800’s had some impressive cold events

    http://www.sidc.be/silso/yearlyssnplot

    https://www.weather.gov/arx/cold_feb1899
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1899

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1888
    http://myinwood.net/a-buried-city-the-blizzard-of-1888/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schoolhouse_Blizzard
    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/1887-blizzard-changed-american-frontier-forever-1-180953852/
    http://plainshumanities.unl.edu/encyclopedia/doc/egp.fol.004

    blizzard of 1888

  3. Larry Ledwick says:

    Note there were two major blizzards in 1888, the New York blizzard happened in March of 1888
    The childrens blizzard hit in January. Because storm names are localized there are several names for these storms in some regions.

    childrens blizzard 1888

    another childrens blizzard 1888 video

  4. Larry Ledwick says:

    Crap miscounted exceeded max links in the first post above.

    [Reply: I fished it out. -E.M.S.]

  5. cdquarles says:

    The only blizzard, in my lifetime, occurred in March, 1993. We even had thundersnow! NB mid March! At my house we got 6 inches of snow. Parts in the jet streak northeast of me (Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Atlanta) got a foot or more and parts in the Carolinas got up to 2 feet. Among the lowest overnight temperatures I’ve seen happen the next two nights, dropping to temperatures near 0F to the low single digits F. If I am remembering correctly, the coldest ever were the single digits below 0F that I saw in January, 1980.

  6. agimarc says:

    Thermal lag in most parts of the US is around 6 weeks, which is why it is coldest on average in late Jan – early Feb than on Dec 21. Likewise, warmest in late July – early Aug rather than June 21. Even seems to work in AK. Cheers –

  7. Larry Ledwick says:

    The historical coldest day of the year here in Colorado Denver metro area is January 24 so for minor solar isolation changes (ie seasonal change) the delay is about 34 days here.

    I suspect that for very large changes (ie onset of glaciation,and massive changes in sea level and albido) there is also a long period world wide lag of several years/centuries as you would be cooling massive amounts of ocean water and exposed sea floor that normally hovers at nearly uniform temperatures under the thermocline

  8. John Andrews says:

    She talked about the result of the minimum on historical temperature, but not about why that occurs. I am convinced that the reduction in the solar partical radiation affects the cosmic particle incidence on the earth which in turn causes increased cloudiness. (Svensmark & Friis-Christensen). This cloudiness change can have an effect up to 10 times that of CO2. The debate will continue.

  9. A C Osborn says:

    John Andrews says: 22 November 2019 at 4:22 am
    If they are right and the CERN cloud expriment says they are it could get cold very fast with both a quiet Sun and more cloud cover.
    Plus the wavy Jet Stream bringing cold further South.

  10. Larry Ledwick says:

    There is also as pointed out by EM on several occasions a shift in the spectrum of radiant energy reaching the earth. Absence of sun spots significantly reduces UV radiation, so although the total solar isolation does not change a lot it does change what frequency bands the energy is distributed in.

    Reducing the UV cuts down on heating of the ionosphere, and energy absorption by the ocean, and the poorly understood input of energy to the earth is secondary processes like ohmic heating due to electrical and magnetic fluctuations, more cosmic ray energy absorbed at high altitude etc.

    This will be the first time (we know of) that a technologically advanced culture can observe these changes with adequate instrumentation to even be aware of all the changes which happen.

  11. E.M.Smith says:

    IMHO there’s the few month lag on seasons, but also a ‘couple of years’ lag on ocean surface temps. A “guest presentation” of work in progress at the Chicago meeting years ago tracked ocean surface temps in the Pacific as they moved from the equator to the north pole. An 18 year process. So figure 18 years for the surface to change of the largest ocean (smaller ones faster?).

    Then you have about an 800 year lag for the entire ocean contents to “overturn”. We are still dealing with the very cold water sent to the depths in 1200 AD.

    Per UV: Remember it is UV and Blue. Those penetrate to some depth in the oceans (about 200 feet). So likely about an 18 year process for their changes to show up as lower ocean temperatures in the “top layer”.

    AND IR: The IR / Red increases at the same time (keeping TSI the same) BUT red / IR cause prompt surface evaporation and do NOT heat the oceans. So we get PROMPT increase in evaporation / precipitation and that energizes the “Heat Pipe Earth” to dump more heat to space along with LOTS of precipitation. I.e. the air gets cold and the rains / snow / floods jump up very promptly.

    So those are the lags (and non-lags) that I know of. Now season with UV not causing as much stratospheric / ionospheric heating, lower O3 formation at some levels or breakdown at other, increased cosmic rays (from lower solar wind) all modulating clouds even more; AND a lower total atmospheric height squashing air flows into a thinner band (loopy jet stream anyone?) and you get your shift of climate.

    We went “the other way” in about 1976 in The Great Pacific Climate Shift (now universally ignored by the “climate scientists” pushing the crap warmista agenda) and it is substantially all the real modern “warming”:

    https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI3532.1

    The Significance of the 1976 Pacific Climate Shift in the Climatology of Alaska
    Brian Hartmann and Gerd Wendler
    Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska
    Add to Favorites Track Citation Download Citation Email
    https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3532.1
    Received: 20 April 2004
    Final Form: 25 February 2005
    Published Online: 15 November 2005

    Abstract
    The 1976 Pacific climate shift is examined, and its manifestations and significance in Alaskan climatology during the last half-century are demonstrated. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation index shifted in 1976 from dominantly negative values for the 25-yr time period 1951–75 to dominantly positive values for the period 1977–2001.

    Mean annual and seasonal temperatures for the positive phase were up to 3.1°C higher than for the negative phase. Likewise, mean cloudiness, wind speeds, and precipitation amounts increased, while mean sea level pressure and geopotential heights decreased. The pressure decrease resulted in a deepening of the Aleutian low in winter and spring. The intensification of the Aleutian low increased the advection of relatively warm and moist air to Alaska and storminess over the state during winter and spring.

    The regime shift is also examined for its effect on the long-term temperature trends throughout the state. The trends that have shown climatic warming are strongly biased by the sudden shift in 1976 from the cooler regime to a warmer regime. When analyzing the total time period from 1951 to 2001, warming is observed; however, the 25-yr period trend analyses before 1976 (1951–75) and thereafter (1977–2001) both display cooling, with a few exceptions. In this paper, emphasis is placed on the importance of taking into account the sudden changes that result from abrupt climatic shifts, persistent regimes, and the possibility of cyclic oscillations, such as the PDO, in the analysis of long-term climate change in Alaska.

    So that’s what is most likely to happen, in reverse, just from the PDO shift. Now increase it for the GSM… and Frozen Alaska…

    So my best GUESS on timing of lags would be:

    Immediate: The big increase in precipitation in many places along with the movement of the “rain bands” back to pre-1975 locations (so drought in places that had it then). That is, more drought in some places and more flooded / rains in others. Increased cold by about 3 C at higher elevations (and in places like New Zealand South Island). A stormier time in places like the North Atlantic and a return of the hurricane pattern of the ’60s.

    18 Years: Of slowly cooling upper few hundred feet of the oceans as they work their way up to the North Poll and radiate away their heat. As this started about 2001, we’re about at the end of that process. The Arctic ought to start freezing up hard and early in the next year or two. Eventually this will cool enough to reduce some of the precipitation events, but it will take a while due to the ongoing IR / UV changes.

    Hundreds Of Years: The oceans will slowly overturn the bulk of the water. As we’re now at about the 1200 AD point, and it was colder from 1300 to about 1800, we’re looking at a lot of very cold water coming to the surface. I don’t see the deep water “saving us” from a cold plunge. The only good news is that this water will be high in CO2 as it was very cold when it stripped CO2 from the air during the Little Ice Age, so as the present / new cold precipitation does CO2 stripping, this will be replacing some of it. It’s a race condition though…

    Hope that’s helpful…

  12. Larry Ledwick says:

    Unfortunately people tend to think of global temperature as being a process modulated by a single input (like pressing the accelerator peddle makes a car go faster), in the process they unconsciously discount (or in many cases simply do not know) all the other things which are changing.

    The climate is like a huge factory where the total product out the door is modulated by dozens of factors, like speed of conveyor belts, adequate supply of parts, are the workers on lunch break, do you have to wait for the paint to dry before you box the product, is there a truckers strike limiting shipping or arrival of stock etc.

    Same goes for the climate. You have dozens of processes each of which modulate some part of the process. How thick is the atmosphere changes the height of the tropopause and height of thunder cells in the tropics, which changes heat flow to high altitudes and the energy input to the Hadley cell circulation that moves heat to the arctic.

    The winds in turn, created by the earth’s rotation and the Hadley cell circulation drive currents in the ocean (along with changes in salinity driven by surface evaporation and density changes due to heating/cooling)

    As a result you have a system that is like a car with 50 throttles, 100 drivers and 70 people shifting gears, net direction and speed and direction of travel influenced by all of those inputs some of which add some of which detract and some are nearly irrelevant (like CO2 concentration).

    Then just to make it interesting those 50 throttles all have different delay times between when the peddle gets pushed and the effect is seen. Same with the 70 folks shifting gears some shift right away and others when the engine management system sees a certain engine rpm or engine load.

    If you tried to put all those inputs and loops into a process flow chart it would cover acres of wall space and be completely incomprehensible as a whole, even if you had perfect input data the interrelationships are too complex for humans to process, so we simplify it to understand little snippets of it. In the process we break our understanding because we must over simplify just to make parts of it comprehensible. Throw in a few non-linear exponential processes we poorly understand or in most likelihood don’t even know about yet and you get a garbage in garbage out problem.

    The good news is the physical world can handle all that complexity and it will do what it does regardless of our understanding so crack open a cool beverage, pop some popcorn and enjoy the show as we witness a major climate shift with sufficient knowledge, instrumentation and understanding to appreciate at least a few of the interactions going on.

  13. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    Exactly why I’ve made so little progress on a DIY climate model. The ones I’ve downloaded and examined are crap, and pondering how to “Roll My Own” has generally resulted in anything that looked like a promising direction suffering the same kind of complexity and missing steps / data crap issues.

    I’m not giving up on it, but it has made me painfully aware of just how useless are the existing set of “climate models”.

    They do not include ANY changes in the Sun at all.
    The atmosphere does not change height / density at altitudes.
    Solar spectrum and amount are constants (IF they look at spectrum at all).
    CO2 is coded to have an effect. (i.e. designed to be causal).
    Ozone modulation ignored.
    No Cosmic rays
    Clouds cumbersome and wrong at best, a plug number average at worst.
    At best, volcanic aerosols are plug numbers from historical records or just made up.
    No allowance for changed particulates / aerosols from Smog Control.
    PDO / AMO etc. are not present or are expected to emerge, but don’t. Forget the other “teleconnections” entirely.
    Ocean treated as a single digit number of ‘layers’. Just how do you get things like Gulf Stream with eddies and all from that? What about continental shelves?
    Mountains? What mountains?…
    Resolution of about 8K to 16K cells in some of them. Forget about Lake Erie and Rhode Island, they are too small to show up. Lake Effect snow without the lake?
    Millankovitch inputs ignored. (Not seen one yet with precession, obliquity, eccentricity)
    and more.

    Maybe I ought to do an article…

  14. Another Ian says:

    “Maybe I ought to do an article…”

    I’ll vote “yes”

  15. Larry Ledwick says:

    I agree one of your concise lists of all the missing inputs in the models and how they mishandle or just plain make up things they cannot model would be highly useful giving the recent Greta / Green push.

    Now that Ned Nikolov’s theory about the cause of atmospheric heating and lapse rate on a planet with an atmosphere appears to slowly be gaining traction, it should take a higher profile in outlining the limitations of current models.

  16. E.M.Smith says:

    One of the significant problems is that you can’t just download and look at many of the models. Those you can get are fairly limited. So I can’t, with authority, make statements about all, or even most of the models.

    OTOH, just dissecting the issues in one of them would give a good starting point for asking questions about the others.

    So, OK, I’ll put it on the ToDo list. I’m about done with the “Infrastructure Cycle” and will cycle back around to the climate stuff soon enough… Wheel Of Fate and all that ;-)

  17. Another Ian says:

    E.M. For your climate model file

    “How Much Sun Could A Sunshine Shine?”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/23/how-much-sun-could-a-sunshine-shine/

    “I leave it to the reader to consider and discuss the implications of all of that. One thing is obvious. Since they can all hindcast quite well, this means that they must have counteracting errors that are canceling each other out.

    And on my planet, getting the right answer for the wrong reasons is … well … scary.”

  18. Larry Ledwick says:

    Not quite directly on topic but worthwhile to consider. Our “worst ever” is really pretty damn good.

    https://www.cfact.org/2019/11/23/second-warmest-hype/

  19. Larry Ledwick says:

    In other news – looks like I will get some pretty good snow here in the next couple days.
    Currently 57 degrees F at 10:20 am Sunday with some down slope wind (warm before the storm)
    Going to cool off a lot and dump some snow.

    Good news is I am on vacation this next week so no worries.

  20. p.g.sharrow says:

    Looks like I will be able to enjoy a bit of snow, here above Chico, for Thanksgiving. Forecast is for.12 inches by Wednesday morning plus more to come. After that storm finishes with us it will be heading in Larry’s direction. Glad to share Larry 8-) Looks like this will be a long winter, White man has a Big wood pile. Better get my winterizing done…pg

  21. Larry Ledwick says:

    Here is the storm warning for my area of Colorado:

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Denver CO
    438 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2019

    …HEAVY SNOW LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY…

    .A winter storm will strengthen as it moves over the mountains and
    across northeastern Colorado and neighboring states Monday night
    into Tuesday. A large area of heavy snow is likely from the
    northern Colorado and southern Wyoming mountains eastward into
    western Nebraska and northwest Kansas. The heaviest snow will
    begin in the mountains and late Monday afternoon and spread
    southeast to the Denver area during the evening, and across the
    rest of northeast Colorado by about midnight. The snow will end
    from west to east during the day Tuesday.

    This storm will likely cause significant travel difficulties due
    to the amount of snowfall. A widespread area with a foot of snow
    from about Interstate 70 northward is possible. Conditions will
    deteriorate Monday evening and will be worst on Tuesday morning.
    While blizzard conditions are not expected, north winds at 15 to
    30 mph will produce some blowing and drifting snow on the plains
    during the day Tuesday, which may hamper plowing of roads.
    Conditions will improve Tuesday afternoon as the snow moves
    eastward and winds decrease.

    People planning travel in northeastern Colorado Monday night or
    Tuesday should monitor future forecasts and begin to consider
    alternatives. There is some uncertainty about this storm`s impact
    on the Denver area as it may be on the edge of this storm. There
    is a chance that travel could become impossible in the Denver area
    Tuesday morning, so residents should be prepared for that
    possibility. Closed or impassible roads due to very heavy snow are
    more likely in the cities north of Denver and on the plains along
    and north of Interstate 76.

    COZ031-033>036-242345-
    /O.NEW.KBOU.WS.A.0014.191126T0100Z-191126T1900Z/
    Rabbit Ears Pass-
    Rocky Mountain National Park and the Medicine Bow Range-
    The Mountains of Summit County, the Mosquito Range, and the
    Indian Peaks-The Northern Front Range Foothills-
    The Southern Front Range Foothills-
    Including the cities of East Slopes Park and Northern Gore
    Ranges, Gore Pass, Rabbit Ears Pass, Cameron Pass,
    Laramie and Medicine Bow Mountains, Rabbit Ears Range,
    Rocky Mountain National Park, Willow Creek Pass, Berthoud Pass,
    Breckenridge, East Slopes Mosquito Range,
    East Slopes Southern Gore Range, Eisenhower Tunnel, Indian Peaks,
    Kenosha Mountains, Mount Evans, Williams Fork Mountains,
    Winter Park, Estes Park, Glendevey, Nederland, Red Feather Lakes,
    Bailey, Central City, Evergreen, Georgetown, Idaho Springs,
    and Westcreek
    438 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2019

    …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
    TUESDAY MORNING…

    * WHAT…Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14
    inches possible.

    * WHERE…The higher mountains of northern Colorado and the Front
    Range foothills.

    * WHEN…Snow will spread from the northern mountains early Monday
    evening to the Interstate 70 corridor and the foothills
    southwest of Denver by late evening. The heaviest snow will be
    Monday night in the northern mountains, and Tuesday morning in
    areas west and southwest of Denver. The snow will decrease from
    north to south during the day Tuesday.

    * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible,
    especially Tuesday morning.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
    Consider possible alternatives to travel, especially in the
    foothills Tuesday morning.

    &&

    $$

  22. Larry Ledwick says:

    They just updated the storm warning for the Colorado front range area at 1:40 pm this afternoon.

    Boulder and the western suburbs of Denver-Denver-Castle Rock-
    Briggsdale-Greeley-Fort Morgan-Byers-Limon-Sterling-Akron-
    Julesburg-Holyoke-
    Including the cities of Arvada, Boulder, Golden, Lakewood,
    Longmont, Aurora, Brighton, City of Denver,
    Denver International Airport, Highlands Ranch, Littleton, Parker,
    Castle Rock, Elbert, Fondis, Kiowa, Larkspur, Briggsdale, Grover,
    Pawnee Buttes, Raymer, Stoneham, Eaton, Fort Lupton, Greeley,
    Roggen, Brush, Fort Morgan, Goodrich, Wiggins, Bennett, Byers,
    Deer Trail, Leader, Agate, Hugo, Limon, Matheson, Crook, Merino,
    Sterling, Peetz, Akron, Cope, Last Chance, Otis, Julesburg, Ovid,
    Sedgwick, Amherst, Haxtun, and Holyoke
    140 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2019

    …WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 5 PM MST
    TUESDAY…

    * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
    inches with higher amounts possible under the heaviest snow
    bands. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

    * WHERE…Portions of east central and northeast Colorado.

    * WHEN…From 8 PM Monday to 5 PM MST Tuesday.

    * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to nearly impossible
    across the area, especially by Tuesday morning.
    The hazardous
    conditions will impact the Tuesday morning commute.

    This is going to be an interesting storm for the Denver Metro area, lots of folks still have not put on proper snow tires, and full on blizzard conditions during rush hour Tuesday morning will bring the area to a grinding halt for about 5-6 hours I would guess.

    I need to get some new wiper blades this afternoon. ;)

  23. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry & PG:

    Best of luck with that white stuff ;-)

  24. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well mission accomplished, new wiper blades installed, and made a quick run for milk etc.
    windy.com North American Model shows the snow starting here about 2:00 – 2:30 pm tomorrow.
    Looks like winds will peak in the Metro area from about 2:00 am Tues to mid day Tuesday around 12-15 mph or so, which in heavy snow could be a problem but not as bad as out on the plains.

    Highest winds will be out east and south east. Oklahoma panhandle and Texas panhandle and eastern New Mexico will be seeing winds in the mid 30 mph range tuesday evening as the storm winds up and moves east.

    Near 5 – 6 AM Tuesday morning the low pressure center will be near La Junta – Lamar Colorado, if strong enough storms in that area can pump a lot of moisture up into Denver basin so I would not be surprised to see heavy snow Tuesday morning and through the day.

    Temps will be just below freezing so no brutal cold until after the snow pretty much ends Tuesday night.

    Now I need to decide if I want to go out and get pictures since I have the day off.

  25. E.M.Smith says:

    FWIW, 2nd Grandchild is due “any day now”. I’ve been pondering a drive to Chicago… But the weather is looking pretty grim. I’d have to go I-10 (and even that may be trouble) and then run up the Mississippi corridor.

    We may just have to wait for spring and see the kids then…

    Yes, I’m pretty sure the Subaru Forester would be fine with the run, even with the snow. It is more the issue of everyone else on the road and perhaps being stuck in a stalled freeway full of sideways cars. I spent one night in the car “side of the road” in a blizzard once (near Weed in N. Cal. about 1970) and don’t want to repeat the experience…

    Oh Well, we’ll see what happens.

    Oh, and yes, you DO want to get pictures ;-)

  26. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well snow hit right when forecast started light snow here at 14:30 pm – still just light snow and 28 degrees but they have updated the forecast. Snow should pickup substantially around 10:00 pm tonight and over night into drive time in the morning with snow fall amounts around 1 inch of snow per hour and winds of 12 – 14 mph in the area north west of the Denver metro area.

    Forecast is now for 12 – 18 inches of snow which will rank this as one of the heaviest November snow storms on record if it develops that way.

    https://www.denverpost.com/2019/11/25/denver-weather-major-november-snowstorm/

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EKQaaSLU0AEAwqs?format=jpg&name=900×900

    Depending on my motivation I might go out for a walk in the storm with camera around midnight and see what I can see.

  27. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like have our own high country version of Hurricane fever

    Likewise at the tire stores for all the folks who put off buying proper winter tires.

    Snow fall is supposed to pickup around 10:00 pm and accumulate at about 1 inch per hour until mid morning tomorrow.

  28. H.R. says:

    I’ve been keeping a sharp weather eye out for that system as it crosses the U.S.

    We head out to Florida on Friday morning and according to the forecasts, we are getting the heck out of Dodge about 24 hours or less before this system hits us. We will probably hit some rain as the cold pushes against the Southern air mass, but the snow and frozen mix looks like it will be 12-24 hours behind us at each stop and will be rain only when we hit Georgia.

    We’ll probably still get a little misery out of it since the wind will pick up as it moves in. We’re traveling North/South and the winds will be pushing on the side of the trailer from the West. Passing and being passed is a bit of white knuckle time as the trailer has a tendency to jump a couple of feet over in a good gust or jump back when a semi provides a sudden break from the wind. Fun times.

    The forecasts have it affecting Central Florida on Monday, the day after our scheduled arrival. Mid-60s (F) is the forecast. Darn! We’ll be missing snow and the upper 20s (F) at home (did anyone fall for that faked disappointment? ;o)

  29. E.M.Smith says:

    @H.R.: Well, I suppose you could run east a bit and then take the interstate South… get a few more hours ahead of the storm before making the turn…

    Personally, I’d probably just veg out after Thanksgiving, and then head out late Thursday… (i.e. sleep from about 2 pm to 9 pm, then turn the key and go…) but I’m fond of night driving on empty roads – and lets face it, after Turkey Dinner very few people are making the big drive…

    But whatever. You know your route, rig, and environment best.

    Oh, and no, I didn’t fall for it ;-)

    Oh, and avoid that back woods grade you did last time ;-)

  30. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well it is starting to snow fairly good here where I live, north of me it has been snowing at a good clip for about 5 hours now. So far winds about 10 mph so drifting not too bad but temperature is now about 25 deg F so the streets have started to freeze and ice up, morning rush hour is going to be interesting. A friend of mine will be working from home tomorrow she was told the campus where she works will be closed (it is in walking distance from my place so just down the road)

    We just started getting 1 inch per hour snow fall about 30 minutes ago so by morning they will have 8 -10 inches on the ground in this part of town.

  31. Larry Ledwick says:

    Matt (post linked above) is forecasting I will get between 12 – 16 inches by the time this is all done.

  32. Larry Ledwick says:

    Morning all! 23 deg F and about 12 inches of snow on the ground here on the north west side of the Denver metro area. Not as much wind as expected so drifting is not extreme. This was a good snow but nothing all that extreme based on my personal experience in this area over the last half century plus.

    Kind of funny – really quiet – looks like most businesses shut down and many folks are working from home or just not going in. Only one guy trying to clean off his car and saw two cars leave the apartment complex when I went out for a walk around. Normally this time of the morning the parking lots would be mostly empty.

    Part of that is likely the proximity of Thanks Giving too.

  33. E.M.Smith says:

    Yeah, a whole lot of folks will just be saying “It’s the holiday, just bag it”. IF (as was likely) a lot of folks stuck a Wed in front of their Thu / Fri long weekend, it would be REALLY tempting to call in for a “snow day”…

    Well, enjoy your start of the New Little Ice Age ;-)

  34. Larry Ledwick says:

    Just put this here.

    spaceweather.com

    Solar wind
    speed: 362.9 km/sec
    density: 7.5 protons/cm3
    Updated: Today at 0806 UT

    X-ray Solar Flares
    6-hr max: A8 0205 UT Dec01
    24-hr: A8 0205 UT Dec01
    explanation | more data
    Updated: Today at: 0759 UT

    Sunspot number: 0
    What is the sunspot number?
    Updated 30 Nov 2019

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 17 days
    2019 total: 253 days (76%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)
    Updated 30 Nov 2019

    Thermosphere Climate Index
    today: 3.52×1010 W Cold
    Max: 49.4×1010 W Hot (10/1957)
    Min: 2.05×1010 W Cold (02/2009)
    explanation | more data: gfx, txt
    Updated 30 Nov 2019

    The Radio Sun
    10.7 cm flux: 70 sfu
    explanation | more data
    Updated 30 Nov 2019

    Looks like by the end of December we will have exceeded the modern high of no sunspot days tallied in 2008 – 2009. At the current ratio of 76% spotless days we would have 23 – 24 more days that are spotless this year for a total of 276 – 277 spotless by the end of the year.

  35. E.M.Smith says:

    Wind and cold here in Silicon Vally is exceptional even for middle winter. The worm has turned.

    By February the notion of Global Warming ought to look damn stupid to anyone who goes outside.

  36. tom0mason says:

    And maybe there are many other climate parameters that the sun varies here on Earth but all the usual suspect wish to keep hidden as they complicate their ideas of what may be really happening …

    Solar magnetic, electric, and particles, and cosmic rays variations appear to majorly influence our weather and our climate.

  37. Larry Ledwick says:

    Very nice video – although the very low level music in the background drove me nuts. It was right at my threshold of hearing and I was wondering if my head phones were picking up a local radio station.

    He confirmed theories I have had for a long time that things like Ohmic heating of the atmosphere and planet by earth currents driven by the sun have been totally ignored, along with electromagnetic influences other than visible, IR and UV radiation.

  38. tom0mason says:

    Also of note is how and why is this planet’s Thermosphere shrinking as the Solar Minimum approaches?
    https://www.space.com/7685-earth-upper-atmosphere-cooling-dramatically.html
    and why is ‘Increasing water vapor in the stratosphere and mesosphere after 2002’ as shown in …
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337058595_Increasing_water_vapor_in_the_stratosphere_and_mesosphere_after_2002

Anything to say?

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.