Global 2019-nCoV Corona Virus Outbreak

As the prior thread is getting slow to load, I’m adding this new thread. There’s s lot of good information in the prior thread, so folks new to the topic, or looking at it historically at some future date, may wish to start there.

At the time of this posting, 18 countries are involved, most with single digit cases in folks arriving from China. Germany has had contagion from a carrier to others, and Thailand has 14 cases, mostly Chinese visitors. The USA has 5 cases, and no onward contagion yet. Canada has 3, Toronto and B.C. It looks like, so far, South America and Africa are not involved (or their detection and reporting are poor). U.A.E. has the first case in the Middle East. Might make Friday prayers problematic if contagion takes hold in the Muslim World. It has already got us planning to skip the Catholic Mass for a while.

The WHO briefing this morning (one hour ago) praised the efforts and cooperation of China; hardest hit and with vastly more cases than anyone else. Globally, lots of countries and the U.N. are pitching in to help China. Nice to see the good side of humanity.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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249 Responses to Global 2019-nCoV Corona Virus Outbreak

  1. Larry Ledwick says:

    Britain is also going to be flying out British citizens for Wuhan and holding them in quarantine for 2 weeks.They are estimating 44,000 cases in the city based on known stats.

    WHO status update

    Click to access 20200129-sitrep-9-ncov.pdf

    Lancet update on patient break down

  2. Larry Ledwick says:

    Good patient breakdown graphic here, again reinforces 2:1 bias of male vs female patients (sex specific or occupational specific???) Also infection frequency by age

    Click to access S0140673620302117.pdf

  3. Larry Ledwick says:

  4. Larry Ledwick says:

  5. S.T. Taylor says:

    @ Larry Ledwick

    That’s the good news – keep that number at 5.

  6. Canadian Friend says:

    please take a look at this,

    – the SARS epidemic of 2003 was a CORONA virus

    – the MERS epidemic of 2019 was also a CORONA virus

    – the present CORONA VIRUS epidemic is called by the WHO ( World Health Organization) ::: 2019 NOVEL CORONAVIRUS

    all 3 epidemics are CORONA VIRUS

    MERS means ; Middle East Respiratory Syndrome

    SARS means ; Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome

    NOVEL obviously means ; new

    but it is unclear why they don t use the acronym SARS since the WHO says it causes SEVERE RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS such as pneumonia and people are dying from it

    the present epidemic is a SARS but they are no longer calling it a SARS

    how bizare…

    that is like saying the new Toyota Camry is not a car but a NOVEL thing when it is clearly a car

  7. Larry Ledwick says:

    Mostly because there is only about 80% similarity between the SARS virus and the 2019-nCoV, so they are very different viruses even though they belong to the same generic family group (ie look the similar under an electron microscope with the crown like structure appearance that gives that type of virus its name.

    Saying a virus is a Corona virus is like saying a car is made by Honda – does not really tell you a lot about the specific capabilities of a specific car.

    The 2019-nCoV appears to have a lot in common with the 1918 Spanish Flu as far as how it acts on patients, it seems to trigger a cytokine storm reaction on about 15% – 20% ? of the patients (basically an over reaction of the immune system that floods the lungs with fluid). So the specific mode of death is a bit different than the SARS as I understand it.

  8. E.M.Smith says:

    @Canadian Friend:

    Yeah… But…. it has different genetics so must get a new distinguishing name. Admittedly, Novel isn’t very novel nor descriptive of observable properties.

    Basically they chose a bad naming system to start with, since symptoms are very similar for many bugs, now they have to change the system. Then the best they could think of was “well, it’s a new one of those kind”… Better is 2019-nCoV but that doesn’t roll off the tongue well.

  9. Larry Ledwick says:

    While I was headed into work the morning minor update on the 2019-nCoV stats from cases in Europe and America has come out.

    The wiki mostly agrees, just a tad higher on its tally.

  10. Larry Ledwick says:

    That is supposed to be a temporary naming to be used until they settle on a formal new name.
    The might come up with something like SARS II or Wuhan SARS or SARS-W or who knows what as a final formal name but for the moment they are using the 2019-nCoV because it is an objectively different virus of a different origin, not a mutation variant of the SAES.

  11. Larry Ledwick says:

    At least folks are maintaining their sense of humor.

  12. Larry Ledwick says:

    Daryl Jones

    6 minutes ago
    It took SARS roughly 36 days to go from 1000 to 6000 cases. It’s taken 2019-nCov (the “corona” virus) roughly 5 days.

    Queen’s Park Media
    15 minutes ago
    More Queen’s Park Media Retweeted WSJ Editorial Page
    “Three waves of Spanish flu tore across the planet, facilitated by censorship and secrecy. The results were catastrophic: 50 million people were killed worldwide including nearly 700,000 Americans.”

    Ru free
    The new virus, known as Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV), is also more dangerous. So far, around 15 to 20 per cent of hospital cases have been classed as “severe” and the current death rate stands at about two per cent.

    4 minutes ago
    More Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Retweeted BreakingNAgency
    The exponential trend of confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) continues its course in the province of Jiangxi. We see a +49% daily increase in new cases.

    24 hours ago: 109 cases
    Now: 53 new cases, total of 162 cases

  13. Larry Ledwick says:

    More on the use of existing drugs to suppress 2019-nCoV infections.

    Chinese researchers have found three existing drugs with fairly good inhibitory effects on the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) at the cellular level, a local newspaper has reported.

    The three drugs are Remdesivir, Chloroquine and Ritonavir. They are now under relevant procedures to gain approval for clinical use, said Hubei Daily on Wednesday.

  14. Larry Ledwick says:
  15. S.T. Taylor says:

    @ Larry Ledwick

    I travel (well now used to) to China several times a year. I always have taken high doses of Vitamin C before an while there to fight any bugs in the plane, hotel, or during my travel. In the last 10 years I only got sick once and that was due to too much Moutai and not too good Chinese food…

    But I agree – I think high dose Vitamin C will be very effective…

  16. Larry Ledwick says:

    Drat posted last one in the wrong thread, let’s try over here.
    Mortality by age comparison between MERS, SARS and 2019-nCoV

    [ No problem. I’ve deleted the other one for you. -E.M.S. ]

  17. Larry Ledwick says:

    Outbreak time line of developments

  18. S.T. Taylor says:

    The Sriram Chandra data is very interesting –
    We are projected to be over 10,000 cases by Friday and over 100,000 by the middle of next week. If those numbers come to pass then I think it is time to take this seriously no matter if it has a foothold in the US our your country yet or not. At 100,000 cases it is going to have long legs. (my opinion)

    Re-posting the data/link below from first thread…

  19. Larry Ledwick says:

    WHO doc on
    Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia

    Link below will attempt to download the PDF of this document.

  20. Larry Ledwick says:

    Not your typical behavior –
    Bodies are being cremated directly from the hospital without being identified.
    Death count likely way too low.

    Very aggressive quarantines (people being locked in their apartment with physical bars making it impossible to exit the apartment.

  21. Larry Ledwick says:

    This was the age vs mortality profile of the 1918 spanish flu


  22. Larry Ledwick says:

    Age distribution for SARS cases

  23. Larry Ledwick says:

    Pre-print of a study
    “Estimating the effective reproduction number of the 2019-nCoV in China”

    59 Using the data described above, is estimated to be 4.08, indicating that an infected 𝑅
    60 patient infects more than four susceptible people during the outbreak.
    This value substantially
    61 exceeds WHO’s estimate of (supposed to be smaller than ) between 1.4 and 2.5, and is 𝑅0 𝑅
    62 also higher than a recent estimate between 3.6 and 4.0 ( 𝑅 8). Compared against the 2003 0
    63 SARS epidemic, of 2019-nCoV is higher than that of SARS in both Beijing (2.76) and 𝑅
    64 Guangzhou (3.01) (calculated using the same method).

    Click to access 2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf

  24. Larry Ledwick says:

    Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia
    (second source for document)

  25. Larry Ledwick says:

    Quarantine road block

  26. Larry Ledwick says:

    dr muge cevik
    5 minutes ago

    Based on the data on exposures among 10 confirmed #2019nCoV cases, the mean incubation period was 5.2d, the 95th percentile of the distribution was 12.5 days (9.2 to 18), supporting 14d medical observation recommendation for exposed persons. #IDTwitter

  27. Larry Ledwick says:

  28. Larry Ledwick says:

    Using AI to rapidly search for drugs that might be helpful to treat 2019-nCoV

  29. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L.:

    The other graph was a bar chart, but the same date. So thanks!

  30. Ossqss says:

    @Larry, the dump truck roadblock pick is not sourced and is grafted. It would be best to place things with sources to convey and legitimize things better in todays world. Just sayin, there is a bunch of homegrown creative imagery out there all over the place. JMHO

  31. Larry Ledwick says:

    Mortality of 14% of “reported cases” this analysis presumes there are not thousands of unreported cases or deaths attributed to routine causes and never tested to see if the deceased tested positive for 2019-nCoV. That said it is an interesting look at a fairly large sample of cases.

  32. Ossqss says:

    I see so many statistics that are being used that do not connect with origination dates that go back into last year when this actually started. This did not start a week ago folks, only the statistics being used did. Just sayin.

  33. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ossqss says:
    30 January 2020 at 12:41 am

    Well if you can find the source go for it.

  34. Larry Ledwick says:

    Here’s the original post that image came from.

    The queue moves so fast I am only catching about 25% of what gets posted as it is, if I tried to validate every single post, I would get near 0%

  35. LG says:

    In Case Anyone had not yet seen these.

    Chris Martenson reports he has not seen any private Chinese citizen, non-government reports out of China in the last 48 hours.


    ZEROHEDGE’s this evening’s headline:

    Reporters Claim To Have Proof China Lying About Virus Death Toll As Total Cases Near 8,000; 12,000 More Suspected

    Several epidemiologists have suggested that many of the deaths caused by the coronavirus that surfaced in Wuhan last month have probably ‘slipped through the cracks’ – either having been misdiagnosed or deliberately attributed to something else. Many suspect that Beijing is concealing the true extent of the outbreak. And now, one reporter claims that a Chinese media organization has found proof.

    The East Asia Correspondent for DW cited reports in a tweet claiming that health officials have been secretly moving some bodies directly from the hospital to the crematorium.

    Also, one thing that #China is hiding is the number of death caused by the virus. Credible Chinese media outlet @initiumnews interviewed people working at local cremation centers, confirming that many dead bodies were sent directly from the hospitals to the cremation centers…

    — William Yang (@WilliamYang120) January 29, 2020

    … without properly identifying these patients, which means there are patients who died from the virus but not adding to the official record. That shows the current death toll of 133 that we are seeing is way too low.
    — William Yang (@WilliamYang120) January 29, 2020

    So there are reasons to remain skeptical about what #Chins has been sharing with the world because while they have been more transparent about certain things related to the virus, they continue to be sketchy and unreliable in other aspects.

    — William Yang (@WilliamYang120) January 29, 2020

    Meanwhile, research published in the Lancet, a medical journal, claimed the true mortality rate is closer to 11% (the official rate is 2%-3%).

    The latest clinical report on 2019-nCoV: 99 patients from Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital. Important: a key group of patients progress rapidly to ARDS, septic shock, and multiple organ failure. 23% ITU admission, 17% ARDS, 11% mortality.
    — richard horton (@richardhorton1) January 29, 2020

    If they’re lying about the death toll, then it’s likely they also know the true number of infections is much higher than the ‘official’ number. .


    Click to access S0140673620302117.pdf

  36. Ossqss says:

    I hear ya Larry, but I don’t have confidence in the undergrad Finance student who is in Germany or his unsourced and grafted pic either.

    No matter, I am just raising my concern about all things social media.

  37. Larry Ledwick says:

    The RNA sequences of the #coronavirus isolated from 6 patients from the same household are different from each other this implies the virus is adapting quickly, which will make it more difficult to get ahead of this outbreak.

  38. Larry Ledwick says:

    Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding
    Jan 27

    5. (Continued from above)… “A BLAST search of 2019-nCoV middle fragment revealed no considerable similarity with any of the previously characterized corona viruses (figure 2)” —> it’s a sequence entirely new to any known #coronavirus. What does this mean? We don’t know yet.

    Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding
    Jan 27

    6. “Notably, the new coronavirus provides a new lineage for almost half of its genome, with no close genetic relationships to other viruses within the subgenus of sarbecovirus.” —> basically it’s saying it’s completely brand new to #coronavirus subgenus.

    Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding
    Jan 27

    7. Very strange: So what is in this new mystery middle segment that has no #coronavirus history? The study authors continue: “This genomic part comprises also half of the spike region encoding a multifunctional protein responsible also for virus entry into host cells[30,31]”.🤔

    Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding
    Jan 27

    9. BOTTOMLINE: 1) Seafood market not the source. 2) This RNA #coronavirus mutates really fast. 3) 🧬 has unusual middle segment never seen before in any coronavirus. 4) Not from recent mixing. 5) That mystery middle segment encodes protein responsible for entry into host cells.

    Source thread on twitter []

  39. Larry Ledwick says:

    First major update for today (11:00 am local time in Wuhan)
    7,783 cases 170 deaths plot for growth still climbing at the same exponential slope.

  40. Larry Ledwick says:

    This is a very slight down turn on the slope previous days were flirting with 30% – 35% growth, of course we have no way of knowing if they are actively skewing the reporting numbers or if that trivial change in growth rate is due to quarantine, changes in public behavior or medical care improvements.

    This small change means doubling time has slowed down from 2 – 2.3 days to about 2.52 days to double the number of deaths.

    Deaths grew by 27.8% at 170/133
    Total cases grew at 26.2% 7783/ 6165

  41. Larry Ledwick says:

    Now seeing impacts in the logistics chain.
    (russian language will have to translate)

    English translation via google translate

    People are afraid to go to the streets, and supermarkets only have a small supply of food (sold out every day).

  42. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    Daniel Henninger, deputy editor of The Wall Street Journal, has as his weekly column “Wonder Land” and opinion piece called “A Communist Coronavirus.”

    This is about the nature and future of China, not so much about medial issues.
    Namely, China itself is the virus.
    Worth finding and reading. ($$)

  43. Foyle says:

    The chinese data are obviously seriously lagging or made up.

    Patient zero was start of december. There were at least 40 cases in hospital at end of december, and there is approximate doubling every 2 days. Bit extrapolate the above cases graph back and you get to patient zero at start of January. No reason why infection rate would have stayed low – near zero for a month and then suddenly started to rise. Conclusion has to be that there are likely 100s of times more cases than officially acknowledges (unless recent quarantine measures instituted only in last week or so have started to help.)

  44. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like Finland has a case from a Chinese tourist.

    Wonder how many people he interacted with before showing enough symptoms to be hospitalized

  45. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting consideration everyone has pretty much ignored, humans are not the only animal who can carry this disease (2019-nCoV) so even if you have an aggressive human quarantine, if the other animals in the affected area are not controlled you still have a vector to spread the infection.

  46. Larry Ledwick says:

    Oh goody!

    Breaking news.
    6000 passengers stranded on an ocean liner off the coast of Italy, following the discovery of coronavirus 2019-nCov on two Asian passengers. to follow!!

    In the Italian port of Civitavecchia blocked the cruise liner Costa Crociere, on board which are almost 6,000. Passengers. This was done after two tourists were diagnosed with symptoms of a new coronavirus 2019-nCoV×314

  47. Larry Ledwick says:

    The Philippines records its first confirmed case of 2019-nCoV

    A 38 year old woman from Wuhan China arrived Jan 21 via a flight from Hong Kong.
    She then visited Cebu, Dumaguete and public places in Metro Manila
    She went to a public hospital on Jan 25 for checkup, and was confirmed on Jan 30

    This gives a time line of approximately 10 days from infection to confirmation of her condition.

    Looks like we have a test case here of the disease entering a new environment.
    In about 6-8 days we will be seeing who / how many she may have exposed (control for estimates of the real R0 value).

    No one would intentionally conduct this experiment but circumstances has produced an ideal test case for study, of course they now need to do back tracing of all the passengers on the plane where they sat next to her, all the people who waited to board the plane (ie family of other passengers) etc.

    Huge huge problem.

  48. Larry Ledwick says:

    Russia closes border with China due to 2019-nCoV

    Lots of data about the virus accumulated in one thread.

  49. S.T. Taylor says:

    @ Larry Ledwick –

    These cases of Chinese Nationals infecting people abroad will unfortunately have the effect of causing some level of xenophobia. Until this burns out people will be weary of travelers from China and to some extent I understand. China is a hot zone right now for a new bug that has unknown lethality and communicability due to most likely massively incomplete data out of China so people all over the world are concerned.
    As someone who has traveled to China quite often over the last 10 years I can attest that their cultural mores are different from the west – not better or worse – just different. I can understand wanting to leave Wuhan to get out of the hot zone to safety as long as you take personal precautions – but I think it’s something else entirely to just hop on a jet and go on vacation. I’m not sure, however, that they have the full story and maybe it’s not their fault. But people infected by Chinese tourists right now are not going to be very forgiving, either way.

    I am a little disappointed in our US national news – not much focus on this virus – just the stupid impeachment. I’d like to see some serious reporting on if the numbers out of China are legit. i just don’t see it based upon some of the leaked info (that may or may not be fake) and also the massive response over the last week to the crisis in Wuhan.

  50. H.R. says:

    I’ve just been absorbing the info that has been posted here over the past few days. Thanks, Larry, for lots of digging, and thanks to all for lots of other contributions.

    The one thing I see that hasn’t been adequately answered by the stats coming from China is at what age the virus becomes a real risk of being lethal.

    There are enough reports in now that point to the virus as being highly, highly virulent, but not particularly lethal at all to the young and healthy. It looks like a lot of people are going to get hit in this outbreak, but it’s only going to inconvenience younger people, not kill them.

    My concern now is with determining the age cutoff where the virus starts showing its lethality. It seems to me that if you put a dividing line through the age statistics, below the line it is going to be no biggie. Above the line the mortality rate is going to be far worse than the usual viral outbreak.

    So, where is that dividing line? Is it 45 or 50 or 60?

    A goodly number of commenters here are 60+, and of course I have no clue about the ages of lurkers and the regular, but infrequent commenters. Anyhow, I don’t think the younger denizens should be in any way panicking, although they should be planning to isolate themselves from older friends and family (thanks in advance!).

    I turned 66 last year and I am wondering if I am above, below, or on the line? I’m going for strong precautions, because it seems likely that 66 is on or above the dividing line.

  51. S.T. Taylor says:

    @ H.R.

    I’m also wondering if the lethality is as much due to poor air quality and smoking being an exacerbating factor in causing pneumonia for the elderly in China that may not really be a factor in the US.

    As I’ve said, I travel to China quite a bit and the air quality in the industrial areas can be down right nasty. Couple that with the smoking that is so prevalent in China and maybe that has caused enough damage to the lungs that the virus is especially deadly to the over 50/60 crowd in China but may not be nearly so bad for us in the US??

  52. E.M.Smith says:

    Larry posted the mortality graph here:

    Looks like 40 is the start of the mortality rise. Bottom yellow line.

    IIRC, one video about it stated most (maybe all) had some significant co-morbidity. Lending credence to the idea smoking and pollution damage matter.

  53. E.M.Smith says:

    Canada gave an update. They still have the 3 but now confirmed. USA still at 5 so that either means North America is doing a great job, or that it hasn’t been long enough since those 8 arrived and infected folks for it to show… Especially now that we know younger folks may not have bad symptoms…

    Middle East has gone from one to 4 so M.E. is in play.

    China doing more tests, having increased their infrastructure and ability. Expect more cases to be reported and likely a jump in cases.

    Talked about elderly deaths with comorbidity being hard to say if they are dead from nCoV or just “With” nCoV. Again implying preexisting lung problems matter to morbidity.

    They continue to say that transmission only happens after symptoms show and only with close contact (IMHO facts not in evidence..). I expect it will take a case or two popping up in the wild for them to change their view. While most transmission will be that way, even one kid going to preschool with it, could take down a small village.

  54. Larry Ledwick says:

    Here is the morning minor update.

    Important milestone. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak. Of these, 774 died. As of today the total case count for 2019-nCoV virus has exceeded the SARS outbreak in only about 2 months of active growth, at 8,235 this morning, death count is still lower but we know that SARS was unusually lethal. 2019-nCoV also likely has thousands of unattributed cases because of the way China has handled this epidemic.

    Don’t make much of the slight down turn in the slope graph, this happens every morning and the major update at about noon China time irons it out to meet the slope of the preceding few days.

  55. cdquarles says:

    Seconded, EM. That’s not the case for any infectious disease that I know of; and particularly true of viral illnesses. You start shedding viruses before you are aware of it. Most symptoms are from immune system activation, which will be delayed unless you’ve been previously exposed (by whatever means) to it or a similar enough to it agent.

    These are the medical facts: There is a dose-response curve for infectious diseases. Many have known minimum effective doses (Shigella, for instance, is known to cause infection with exposure to as few as 100 cells per gram). The lower the dose, the longer the incubation period, particularly for an immune naïve host. There will be a fraction naturally immune because they lack the necessary receptor. There will be a fraction that are naturally immune due to previous exposure to a similar enough agent. There will some who catch and spread it without symptoms. There are some who will have a mild illness. There will be some who get a severe illness, yet not fatal. There are some who will get a fatal illness. There are multiple factors, often individual and not known, that result in which category people get placed (after the fact). The most successful infections are able to spread either asymptomatically or with a large fraction of mild illnesses. Parasites that kill too many of the hosts limit their own viability.

  56. Larry Ledwick says:

    Another interesting source I have found via all the postings on twitter

    Too much here to clip stuff so cruise their posts as you have the time.

    Gui Xi’en: It is expected that the epidemic situation in Wuhan may reach the ‘inflection point’ before the 15th of the first month
    ,Published: 2020-01-26 14:21:46 | Source: People’s Daily Client | Author: Lee Han Cheng Yuan State
    More News Enter News Center

    During the Spring Festival holiday raged by a new coronavirus, Professor Gui Xi’an, who was over 80, still insisted on working in the office every day. The reporter interviewed Professor Gui Xien on issues related to the new coronavirus.

    Reporter: As a well-known infectious disease expert, how do you view the epidemic situation of the new coronavirus?

    Gui Xi’en: The situation facing today is very serious, but now governments at all levels attach great importance to it. The prevention and control measures taken are unprecedented in China (more than the measures adopted during the SARS epidemic in 2003). The current inspection and treatment methods are more than before. It is believed that the outbreak can be brought under control.

    Medical staff must protect themselves. The disease is mainly transmitted through close-up droplets.

    Our hospital infectious disease medical staff are on the front line, and they are in contact with patients with new coronavirus every day, including those with high contagion. Although infectious disease medical staff are more likely to be infected than ordinary medical staff, none of them is infected, indicating that as long as the precautionary measures are taken properly, the disease can be completely prevented.

    Medical personnel from many places across the country have given up the Spring Festival break to Wuhan to support prevention and control work. Our local medical staff should continue to contribute to the prevention and control of ‘new coronavirus pneumonia’!

    Reporter: What do you suggest the public should pay attention to?

    Gui Xien: The source of the disease has not been determined, but it is most likely to come from animals. Therefore, contact with animals, especially wild animals, should be avoided as much as possible. Direct contact with an infected person can cause infection, so wash your hands frequently. Do not attend parties (including family gatherings) at this time to reduce the chance of infection. Anyone suffering from this disease should be treated in isolation. Wearing masks but not littering them and not spitting everywhere is a personal hygiene practice that everyone should follow.

    Reporter: Now there is a saying that anti-HIV drugs can treat new pneumonia?

    Gui Xien: As a new type of coronavirus infection, there is currently no approved specific treatment method, and the treatment is mainly based on comprehensive treatment. However, it is speculated that drugs that are effective against other RNA viruses may be effective against this disease. For example, Abidol for the treatment of influenza, Cleeve (protease inhibitor) for the treatment of AIDS, etc. But its effectiveness and safety, suitable dosage, course of treatment and possible mechanism of action have yet to be explored. On the basis of scientific design, corresponding conclusions should be reached through work.

    Reporter: How do you predict the development of this new type of pneumonia?

    Gui Xi’en: The SARS mortality rate is about 10%. The mortality rate of new coronavirus is lower than that of SARS, and the infection rate of medical staff is lower. We could control SARS more than 10 years ago, and today we can also control new coronavirus. We must be vigilant and not paralyzed, but we must not be overly fearful. The majority of patients with new pneumonia are mild and curable. We should be confident.

    It took us 6 months to control the SARS virus, and I expect that the new coronavirus will be completely controllable and faster than SARS! At present, the number of newly diagnosed patients is more and more each day, but it should not take too long from the peak to the decline. The ‘turn’ in incidence can be calculated in weeks. It is expected that the epidemic situation in Wuhan may decline before the 15th of the first month.

    Reporter: Will there be similar infectious diseases in the future?

    Gui Xi’en: For thousands of years, there has been only one disease that was truly eliminated by humans—smallpox. New infectious diseases such as AIDS, Legionnaires’ Disease, and SARS continue to occur. New coronaviruses are also among the new infectious diseases. Even if we succeed in controlling this virus, there will definitely be new infectious diseases in the future. The human race against infectious diseases will never stop. As a medical staff, we should not be afraid of the disease and fight back from the disease! There should be ideological preparations to fight disease for life.

    (Gui Xi’en, People’s Medical Physician, Professor of Infectious Diseases, Central South Hospital of Wuhan University, well-known AIDS prevention expert, director of Hubei Provincial AIDS Clinical Training Center. One of the ten ‘moving China’ figures in 2004.)…t_75650018.htm

  57. Larry Ledwick says:

    I tried to bold the date published in the above post but cobbled the code tags
    It was published on 1/26/2020 so 4 days old.

    [Reply: Fixed the tags for you. -EMS ]

    Good summary of recent infectious epidemics and their dynamics

  58. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like the US is about to announce a 6th confirmed case (person to person transmission), so this gives us some info on how long the generation time is for subsequent infections.

    Dan Vergano

    CDC announcing with Illinois Dept. Public Health first US case of person-to-person 2019-nCov infection in US, in the husband of the first travel-related case in Chicago, In hospital isolation. Close contact transmission.

    10:45 AM – 30 Jan 2020
    Dan Vergano
    5 minutes ago
    Now 6 cases in the US. Still low risk to US public of spread of disease

    On January 24, 2020, the Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH) reported the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) in Chicago.
    So this places the generation time at around 6 days for subsequent cases to begin appearing from prior cases.

  59. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like the case fatality rate (with adequate hospital treatment is around 5%-6%, would be much higher without modern medical technology (approximately 15% of those who end up in ICU die).

    Our Foreign Masters Hate Us

    12 minutes ago
    Our Foreign Masters Hate Us

    Retweeted To The Republic
    No reason to average in a month ago before it mutated.

    And with 98.5% dead and still in the hospital, despite the dire shortage, death rate would be 90% with no hospital care.

    Death rates
    Wuhan 5.7%
    Hubei 3.5%
    China other 0.35%
    Elsewhere 0%
    Takes time to die.

  60. Larry Ledwick says:

    New Lancet summary published Jan 20 2020

    The 2019-nCoV infection was of clustering onset,is more likely to affect older males with comorbidities, and can result in severe and even fatal respiratory diseases such as acute respiratory distress syndrome. In general, characteristics of patients who died were in line with the MuLBSTA score, an early warning model for predicting mortality in viral pneumonia. Further investigation is needed to explore the applicability of the MuLBSTA score in predicting the risk of mortality in 2019-nCoV infection.

    My take on this – – –
    So based on prior information males over 40 who have compromised lungs or other high risk secondary medical conditions are at highest risk. Young healthy under 15 very seldom have any significant symptoms. Looks like speculation that high pollution and poor work health policies in China over the preceding decades may be part of the lethality for older male patients, as there is a 2:1 bias for death favoring males over females in the Chinese data.

    Since this is a new virus almost everyone will susceptible and this selective culling of high risk patients may in time extend world wide. If you accept the generation time for subsequent infections is about 6 days, and the first cases likely appeared very early in December or perhaps into late November and not recognized as a new illness, we are around 15 generations into the growth cycle in China.If R0 reinfection rate is about 2.6 then true number of cases would be near 85,000 to 100,000 depending on how precise those values are.

    If you work backwards from today’s total of 8235 known cases, and a presumed case fatality rate of 5.7% that means true cases should be near (8235/5.7)*100 or about 144,474 cases.

  61. E.M.Smith says:


    Thanks for that cnbc link. From it:

    World health officials say the respiratory disease spreads through human-to-human contact, droplets carried through sneezing and coughing and germs left on inanimate objects.

    Someone needs to remind the Canadian medical managers that W.H.O. says it can transmit via fomites and surface touches do not require close contact.

    It looks to me like the present strategy for containment is to only contact trace the close contacts and let the other (more distant or surface contact) cases develop disease and present for treatment as a way of discovery. This will fail catastrophically with the first case in a child, with modest symptoms, who gives it to his school. We are left to HOPE that does not happen.

    “But hope is not a strategy. -E.M.Smith”

  62. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    I don’t understand why you divide current total cases by the death rate. Ought it not be #dead/% rate to give total% then x 100?

  63. ossqss says:

    WHO just dunnit. We now have a declared GHE. Global Health Emergency.

  64. Larry Ledwick says:

    @Larry L:

    I don’t understand why you divide current total cases by the death rate. Ought it not be #dead/% rate to give total% then x 100?

    Hmmm too early in the morning for me – it made sense when I posted it let, me think about it.

    I was trying to side step a couple problems.
    1) We know early on in the epidemic, the Chinese were unable to test all cases and were actively and intentionally mis-attributing cases to other routine causes like Pneumonia.
    2) We know that many healthy young will just write it off as a cold or seasonal flu, so will never enter the official record tally.
    3) The record keeping on those severe cases they are now tracking is presumed to be fairly accurate so total deaths should be about 5.7% of all cases (known or unknown).
    4) Current official cases / 5.7 should equal about 1% of all cases, if that is true than
    (8235/5.7)*100 should represent all cases including those not reported as a lower limit, (the true count could be much higher)

    That was my reasoning.

    Best info won’t be available until we have detection treatment, outcome records from a few hundred countries/cases who have no political reason to skew the numbers. That won’t be for weeks, and that also assumes the virus does not continue to mutate so that it is more effective at transmission, and becomes significantly more or less lethal. Never mind that current treatments may be far more effective than initial treatments especially in industrialized countries which do not have overwhelmed medical systems and can throw effectively unlimited resources at a handful of cases.

    Professional virologists have been speculating for several days that the true case count is in the 100K range so that computation fit expectations (not that that proves much other than I had no reason to doubt it was at least a reasonable lower limit to true cases.

    If you take it at face value that the genetic spill over was to a single patient (patient 0) than to get to 8235 cases we must have had at least X generations of increase at the R0 value which is presumed to be about 2.6. Therefore X has to be about 9 generations of increase.

    If you have 9 generations with an average duration of about 6 days like the current patient in Chicago, you have a time span of about 54 days for the existence of this bug. First attributed case is estimated by genetic drift to have been about Dec 1-7 or 60 some days which fits nicely with that estimate.

    The question is what fraction of real cases is that 8235 tally for today? We know it is not 100%.
    There is apocryphal info that the Chinese suspected something was going on as early as mid October. That would imply another 60 or so days of growth unaccounted for.

    If we figure total of 120 days then we have 20 generations of growth, which 2.6^20 which gives an implied total case count of 199,281,488 if that 2.6 R0 is correct. So in my mind that puts an upper reasonable limit on total cases.

    Someone is going to make a carrier out of figuring this out, dozens of Phd’s will be awarded based on this outbreak.

    I am just trying to spit ball some limits.
    The last few days the daily growth rate was from 35% to 24% per day giving a doubling time of 2 days to 4 days. Using those numbers at 35% per day and 2 day doubling time with total elapsed time of 120 days you have 60 doubling s = 2^60 which is way more than the world population.
    At 24% per day growth you have doubling time of 4 days or 30 doubling s which gives total possible cases of 1,073,741,824 still a bit too high to be believable.

  65. Larry Ledwick says:

  66. Larry Ledwick says:

    WHO officially declares a Public Health Emergency

  67. Larry Ledwick says:

  68. S.T. Taylor says:

    @ Larry Ledwick –

    Might want to wait until tonights’ update (noon China time) – but that big a deviation from the trend tells me that China is not being truthful on their data reporting.

  69. Larry Ledwick says:

    Nice semi log plot of cases vs time

  70. Larry Ledwick says:

    They always have a false dip in the morning update the straight trend line reimposes itself in the noon local update from China since is has so much more data.

    The semi-log plot of cases can be extended to extract likely time 0 for cases

  71. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    30 January 2020 at 5:52 pm

    The “Slate” link says:

    The discovery underlined the fact that consumption of bush meat—often used by racists as a reason to blame Africans for their own suffering—isn’t the only way outbreaks begin.

    Except the Chinese have a similar problem. Is it racist to notice?

  72. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    30 January 2020 at 9:26 pm

    Knowing R0 doesn’t do you much good for predicting the future course of events. You also need a time between generations.

  73. E.M.Smith says:

    Those too stupid to know “bush meat” comes with risks are also the ones too stupid to know that pointing it out is not related to race in any way whatsoever.

    At about age 7 my Dad taught me that skinning our own raised rabbits bare handed was fine, but any wild rabbits had to be skinned with very good gloves on. Then you inspect for any “blisters” under the skin. Rabbit Fever is not nice… Tularemia. Also a risk hunting other mammals. I’d carry a spray can of bug killer if hunting and spray down the critter from a distance. Also, our local rodents like squirrels have endemic Plague. Yeah, real Plague. So was my Dad “racist” for telling ME about the risks of “bush meat”? (Which we did eat… just very carefully and always completely cooked.

    Frequency ~200 cases per year (US)
    Tularemia, also known as rabbit fever, is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis. Symptoms may include fever, skin ulcers, and enlarged lymph nodes. Occasionally, a form that results in pneumonia or a throat infection may occur.

    The bacterium is typically spread by ticks, deer flies, or contact with infected animals. It may also be spread by drinking contaminated water or breathing in contaminated dust. It does not spread directly between people. Diagnosis is by blood tests or cultures of the infected site.

    Prevention is by using insect repellent, wearing long pants, rapidly removing ticks, and not disturbing dead animals. Treatment is typically with the antibiotic streptomycin. Gentamicin, doxycycline, or ciprofloxacin may also be used.

    Between the 1970s and 2015, around 200 cases are reported in the United States a year. Males are affected more often than females. It occurs most frequently in the young and the middle aged. In the United States, most cases occur in the summer. The disease is named after Tulare County, California, where the disease was discovered in 1911. A number of other animals, such as rabbits, may also be infected.

    Prior to widespred antibiotic use, the associated pneumonia could be lethal.

    So not just yeah, but Hell Yeah I’m going to tell folks “bush meat” is a source of diseases and it is their own damn fault. Regardless of race, and regardless of the continent where the “bush” is located.

    Anyone calling me a “racist” for doing that is invited to go rabbit hunting in California.

  74. Larry Ledwick says:

    Okay I had to re-learn some math I have not used in about 50 years
    Using the WHO sitrep numbers for total confirmed cases (see below)
    (Note it appears WHO data is a day behind the dash board, perhaps due to time zone issues, but they are self consistent numbers) used to derive the exponential function.

    7818 @ 1/30
    6065 @ 1/29
    4593 @ 1/28
    2798 @ 1/27
    2,744 @ 1/26
    1320 @ 1/25
    846 @ 1/24
    581 @ 1/23
    NA @ 1/22
    314 @ 1/21

    The general equation should be:
    Growth of cases

    cases@time T2 = T1(percent growth)^t
    Which gives us this:

    314(1.4293)^9 = 7818

    If this is correct, tomorrow’s WHO sitrep should list about 11,173 total cases.
    Total cases should follow the same growth rate in the US unless the Chinese medical system is losing patients we can save so the US cases should do this if the relationship is correct.

    6 cases as of 1/30
    +10 days 6(1.4293)^10 = 214
    +20 days 6(1.4293)^20=7597
    +30 days 6( 1.4293)^30= 45,051

    This of course assumes no significant change in probability of infection (ie R0) of the organism.
    Our medical capabilities are comparable to China’s

    There are several things that could change the effective R0 in the US
    Head start in getting prepared
    Better medicine
    Lower population density
    Lower incidence of risk factors ( fewer smokers, lower pollution etc.)
    Different public behavior due to news coverage and warnings.

  75. Another Ian says:

    “Word Health Organisation declares public health emergency over 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease”

  76. M Simon says:

    “The virus is highly contagious , with a reproduction number [the average number of cases each case generates during the infectious period] of between two and three. There is no reliable evidence that the disease is contagious during the incubation period,” the report said, adding that the incubation period was between one and 14 days.

  77. Larry Ledwick says:

    There are numerous reports of cases where infection occurred during the asymptomatic incubation period of the only likely source.

    I think they just don’t want to admit is as it makes the numbers very scary.

  78. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well this looks promising – who is going to pay the tab for people trying to protect their family?
    Now we get to find out if the Insurance companies are going to be reasonable about paying these diagnostic tests.

  79. E.M.Smith says:

    Anyone who takes their kid to the E.R. / Clinic for a kid w/ a temp is already out of touch w/ reality. More so when you know there is no need for treatment (nor many options for treatment) until you are well into significant difficulties.

    That said: $4,000 for a lab test REALLY does need to be advised up front and is more than a bit outrageous.

  80. Larry Ledwick says:

    Tonight’s major update will probably about 9,200 cases based on chatter I am seeing about current case loads.

  81. E.M.Smith says:

    At the Trump Rally they are advertising prepper food kits a 50% discount from list. While, IMHO, cheaper to “roll your own”, if short of time and long on money, easy way to get a Quaranteen Food Supply:

    For the next 7 hours, one week of food for $39, 4 weeks for $197

    Guess that really isn’t that expensive, and the week size comes in an “ammo can”.

  82. Ossqss says:

    Any California medical bill obviously includes a mandated payment for supporting an illegal family of 4 ;-)

  83. Larry Ledwick says:

    Highest risk airports for flights carrying 2019-nCoV positive patients.

  84. E.M.Smith says:

    I note that San Francisco is #16 on that list. Oh lucky me…

  85. Ossqss says:

    Update (1900): The NHC is reporting a total of 9,692 cases across China, and a total of 213 deaths in another early morning dump.

  86. Larry Ledwick says:

    Just to give you warm fuzzies
    28 minutes ago

    China – National Government 2019-nCov Report dated January 30: 1,982 new cases and 43 new deaths for a total of 9,692 confirmed cases and 213 deaths. 102,427 people were receiving medical observation. … @RonanKelly13

  87. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting look at time line for infection – to – confirmation in multiple patients.

    I have seen one note that the receptors that the virus attacks is the same as the SARS virus (ACE2) which I believe is only present deep in the lungs so shallow breathing or heavy breathing in a contaminated environment might also make a difference in likelihood of getting a sufficient dose to become infected. I don’t know enough about the subtle biology involved but perhaps someone else here can comment.

  88. Larry Ledwick says:

    Another image showing case numbers going back much farther than data I was using from the WHO sitrep reports.

  89. Larry Ledwick says:

    This is troubling it implies that China is giving good care and not much different outcome for cases than western nations which do not have over loaded medical systems.

    Sam R
    3 minutes ago
    Replying to @coldair
    I’ve done a scaled comparison of #2019nCoV cases since Jan 20th, inside and outside of #China, and it’s scary – they are tracking very closely together…

  90. Larry Ledwick says:

    Patient treatment and evaluation flow chart

  91. Larry Ledwick says:

    Out side donations are starting to flow into Wuhan

  92. Ossqss says:

    @Larry, it appears, on the surface from what has been conveyed to date, those with a pulmonary issues are at most risk. I would associate that with things like COPD, Asthma etc.. Shallow breathing for the healthy may be different, but I would be guessing. I would think it would take very little of the viral element to be inhaled to close the infection loop. Reanalysis will certainly clear that up down the road. Interesting angle none the less.

  93. Larry Ledwick says:

    Case growth rate comparison several different out breaks

  94. E.M.Smith says:

    India has announced their first case. If this gets loose in India, it’s over. With 2 billion folks, between India and China, that’s a huge reservoir.

  95. Larry Ledwick says:

    If this gets loose in India, it’s over.

    Looks like the Agenda 21, and mega city booster globalists are about to get a lesson on why high density living is a bad idea.

    Talk about a genetic stew pot to breed the perfect pathological virus, would be hard to beat a pool of about 2 billion susceptible subjects to find that one in 100,000 million perfect mutation.

  96. Larry Ledwick says:

    We finally got our major update. 9776 cases vs 7783 last night ( 25.6% change)
    If growth is the same tomorrow, cases will climb to 12,278 tomorrow.

    Deaths are at 213 vs 170 last night (25.3%)
    If the fatality rate remains the same, tomorrows number will be 267

  97. Larry Ledwick says:

    As you can see by this plot the trend is very slowly accelerating over the last 24 hours. This thing is getting better at infecting people or the Chinese are getting better at identifying cases.

  98. E.M.Smith says:

    A death outside China, in Malaysia. France up to 6 now.

    Heard on Canadian news that the plane load now in California going into quarantine , were ASKED to VOLUNTARILY self quaratine at the facility for 3 DAYS.

  99. Ossqss says:

    There are about, maybe, a billion people who still don’t have electricity?

    Probably up to 1.5 billion or more who use wood or dung as their primary energy source for cooking and heating. I would think they may have some predisposition to this virus just due to exposure.
    Kinda like smoking in a way. These folks don’t have 5 stage HEPA filters on AC unit returns. Think about their standard of living in general for a minute, then enjoy streaming Netflix. Just sayin

    Hopefully, containment is possible before it gets to those who are least prepared to handle things.

  100. Larry Ledwick says:

    I really hope birds cannot carry this bug, if they do, containment is a lost cause.

    Like you say they have found smoke inhalation problems in central Africa and other places who cook over indoor fires all the time, not to mention none too good nutrition etc.

  101. E.M.Smith says:

    Agenda 21 Globalist wake up? This is their wet dream! A virus that can’t be stopped, infects the entire world, and mostly kills off the older “useless eaters” with memories of freedom…

  102. E.M.Smith says:


    IFF this takes, say, 4 or 5 months to get really heavy in the USA, call it May or June:

    Isn’t that prime presidential campaigning time?

    Could put a big crimp in campaign events, rallys, etc.

  103. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well apparently they are settling on a formal medical name for the disease caused by this virus.

    Janella Paris
    4 minutes ago

    The disease now has a name: 2019-nCoV acute respiratory syndrome or 2019-nCoV ARD. @rapplerdotcom

  104. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting observation:

    7 minutes ago
    Trust me, it’s not Wuhan nor China that we should be closely monitoring. It should be Thailand. They’re the most traveled country so the risk of effectively spreading the virus is high. And they have 14 confirmed cases already. #WuhanCoronovirus #NovelCoronavirus #2019nCoV

    It is a tropical get away that draws people from all over the world, could seed lots of contagious people as they return home from vacations.

  105. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yes it could – would also put a big crimp on in person voting if it runs into the convention, election and primary cycle.

    I see a lot of virtual rally’s in our future.

  106. M Simon says:

    Slightly OT

    South China Morning Post. – which is why it is going in this thread.

    Psychedelic medicine attracts investors with legalisation of banned drugs in prospect in the United States

  107. Larry Ledwick says:

    Confirmation of infection from persons showing little or no signs of disease themselves, including patients who had brief onset of upset and then apparently recovered but continued to be infectious to others.

    How many of these typhoid marys are there out of 1000 patients?

  108. Larry Ledwick says:

    Another case of asymptomatic carriers

  109. Larry Ledwick says:

    Confirmed case of the novel coronavirus in Kerala, India.
    India has 806 people under observation for possible infection.

  110. Larry Ledwick says:

    The EU appears to have at least 12 cases already. France 5, Germany 4, Italy 2, Finland 1,

    Translated from Portuguese by Microsoft
    Via @larepublica_pe

    2 first confirmed cases of #coronavirus in Rome, Italy, are of two Chinese tourists.
    The government has ordered the suspension of all air traffic with China.

  111. Larry Ledwick says:

    Another case of asymptomatic but infectious patient. If just one or two patients like this go to crowded areas with high contact (McDonalds play pit, birthday party, dancing with friends etc.) it could kick off a massive outbreak a week or two later.

  112. Larry Ledwick says:

    Some very useful tips for controlling contamination with 2019-nCoV

    CoronaVirus will die in 56’C (133 deg) environment for 30mins.
    Utensils should be regularly sterilised /disinfected or boiled in 100’C water to totally eliminate all viruses.
    Normal cooking temperatures will kill the virus
    New coronavirus is easily eradicated by medical grade alcohol.
    – 75%alcohol or Chlorine disinfectant can effectively eliminate the coronavirus.
    keep the indoor temperature above 20’C. -Coronavirus can’t survive long in a warm environment.
    (this might be over optimistic)
    Two surrogate animal coronaviruses, transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV) and mouse hepatitis virus (MHV), were studied at various temperature and humidity levels to determine their survival rate on stainless steel. Inactivation of the virus occurred most rapidly at extremely hot temperatures and high humidity levels. When exposed to temperature and humidity levels more typical of indoor environments, the viruses could persist on surfaces for up to 28 days.

    [Given this long survival times at common room temperatures and humidity levels periodic wiping of key surfaces would greatly limit this risk (ie wiping door knobs, stair rails, elevator touch buttons, push plates and grab bars on doors etc.]

    “When high numbers of viruses are deposited, TGEV and MHV may survive for days on surfaces at air temperatures and relative humidity typical of indoor environments

  113. Larry Ledwick says:

    The virus uses AEC2 to bind to cells, there are genetic differences in expression of this receptor.
    Men have more than women, and asians have 5 x the number as africans and europeans.

    If this is true we might see a genetically based regional bias in how this virus attacks various populations.

    I wonder if age also changes how many AEC2 receptors a person has?

    Of course this could all change over night if the virus learns to bind using a different receptor to gain access to the cell.

  114. M Simon says:

    Evidently a mild cough is not counted as a symptom.

    About a woman from China Visiting various places in the Philippines for 4 days before checking in to a hospital.

  115. M Simon says:

    The relevant passage.

    She sought consultation and was admitted in one of the country’s government hospitals on January 25 after experiencing a mild cough.

    According to Duque, she is currently asymptomatic, which means she had no fever and no other symptoms suggesting illness.

  116. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    31 January 2020 at 7:47 am

    Asians have 5 times as much as Africans/Europeans.

    So Asians would have more sender cells in an infection and more receptor cells in the uninfected. This may be good news for most of the planet, If we are lucky R0 will be near or below 1 for most of us. If we are lucky.

  117. A C Osborn says:

    2 Cases in the UK.

  118. S.T. Taylor says:

    So my guess is that the 102k people under observation probably have not been tested due to lack of kits and are likely to have the virus. Also, I would assume that any deaths that come from that “observed” population are not included in the official death tally at this time. It’s as bad as we feared.

    I agree with the above comments regarding India and Thailand – if it gets out there we will see a significant bloom throughout Asia in mid-February.

    We can hope that the Ro for Europe, Africa, and the Americas is below 1…

    Below from Larry Ledwick:
    China – National Government 2019-nCov Report dated January 30: 1,982 new cases and 43 new deaths for a total of 9,692 confirmed cases and 213 deaths. 102,427 people were receiving medical observation. … @RonanKelly13

  119. S.T. Taylor says:

    I mean – what can I say – I’d probably do the same thing…

    Travellers beat China virus lockdown via bridge over the Yangtze

    JIUJIANG — People are leaving and entering China’s Hubei province by foot over a bridge spanning the Yangtze river, despite a virtual lockdown on vehicle traffic due to a coronavirus epidemic that has killed more than 200 people.

    The Yangtze divides Jiujiang in Jiangxi province and Huanggang in neighboring Hubei, one of the cities hardest hit by the coronavirus outbreak and now sealed off from the rest of China to try to contain it.


  120. E.M.Smith says:

    Ok, so what is the prognosis given what we know and what the officials are not doing?

    The WHO has said keep flying to and from China. Virus will continue to get a global ride.

    There are superspreaders galore. Not just kids, but others too. Virus will show up in large amounts. The infection curve will continue exponential.

    Several nations, including at least Canada and the USA, have a protocol that is ineffective at detecting / containing superspreaders. The spread in those countries will accelerate exponentially.

    The virus is showing up in countries all over the globe. Global infection can not be stopped.

    The virus is in countries with poor medical facilities, crowded populations, and international travel. The virus will blow up exponentially and run to completion there. To stop it would require detecting the superspreaders and detecting those with infection that will manifest in a week. But no effort goes into that. They will be new sources of global seeding. There is no effective treatment in such places.

    The likely conclusion is that the global pandemic is a given.


    It is moving so fast it will burn through the population quickly and reach herd immunity. Is it fast enough you can ride it out in isolation? Will it be under 2 or 3 months?

    Asians and men have significantly more receptors for this virus. MAYBE infection severity and deaths will be less in the non-Asian regions of the world. This MIGHT let The West get ahead of this. It also might let us have more superspreaders and asymptomatic cases…

    So far, we are still in single digits in The West. VERY aggressive testing and quarantine still has a chance.

    The retroviral drugs have some benefit. We ought to have helpful treatements in quantity soon.

    Anything else?

    Best Guess:

    My best guess is that there is no stopping this. We might slow it, but that’s it. The West will do OK with it, confining deaths to old folks with comorbidities. Asia (writ large including India) will do poorly all around. Cases will swamp their medical facilities with excess demand for ICU Care due to higher infection rates and severity. It will likely take 4 to 6 months to end, as a bald guess.

  121. S.T. Taylor says:

    @ E.M. Smith

    I agree with what you are saying – a high likelyhood that your projects come to pass.

    If so – global supply chain crashes this spring and takes 6-12 months to return.
    The causes massive scarcity of consumer goods in the west which are not important – but don’t impact our food supply in the US due to our ability to keep this under control (hopefully).

    Economy takes a beating this year and hopefully rebounds in 2021.

    Will be very interesting to see how this plays in the election if your scenario comes to fruition.

  122. ossqss says:

    I would wonder if the vaccination history of Western societies will prove to play a role in inhibiting infection rates as their bodies have been exposed to other types of toxins and could have built up more of a resistance/strength against new iterations of such.

  123. Larry Ledwick says:

    The one other note to this all is that the industrial west has a bit more time to work out treatment protocols (effective anti-viral drugs), smoking in the industrial west is much less socially acceptable than in the heart of Asia and the same goes for severe air pollution, so as a percent of population at risk groups (COPA, severe asthma, Emphysema etc. “might” be lower, diabetes how ever is probably higher in the west). It is not clear if obesity is a clear risk factor, if so that also would affect the industrial west more.

    Likewise social organization will be a factor, prevailing cultural concepts of interpersonal distance could play a factor. In Asia social interpersonal distance is much shorter than it it is in Europe which is shorter than it is in the US, and the Western US is much larger than in the mega cities of the east.

    The other unknown here is how effective the virus adapts to humans as it enters basically an unlimited pool of candidates for infection.

  124. E.M.Smith says:

    An interesting video by two guys who normally do other topics. So don’t be surprised when their stock leadin is two guys on a country motorcycle ride.

    It sounds like they both have Chinese wives and inlaws. It is 1.5 hours long, but includes video from inside China along with cultural insights on the Chinese government and people.

    They also have some decent advice about blowing off PC Crap when it is thrown at you. Pointing out cries of “racist” ard largely just an attempt at deflection. Another point made is that older Chinese often do not use soap in hand washing, a clear contributor to contagion and a plus point for Ths West in perhaps having lower speed of spread.

    Does contain strong language at times, including F-bombs.

  125. Larry Ledwick says:

    I finally relocated that post I saw yesterday that discussed mode of infection and needing to breath deeply to transport droplets deep into the lungs for effective transmission of the virus.

  126. Larry Ledwick says:

    Good primier for the general public from the New York times (Yes S we do read articles from it)

  127. E.M.Smith says:

    Russia has closed their border with China before getting any cases, so at least Russia has clue.

  128. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting items on survival times for various bugs on different surfaces and conditions.

    Effect of copper on survival

    Looks like a pocket full of pennies might be a useful dry antiseptic for daily situations, by simply handling them periodically to transfer small amounts of copper to the skin.

  129. Larry Ledwick says:

    Are other major cities in the world just a few weeks behind Wuhan on the infection progression process and the seeds for those infections are already germinating in the population pool?

    I would submit that with a new virus which has virtually universal susceptibility in the population pool the answer to that question is probably yes.

  130. M Simon says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    31 January 2020 at 3:54 pm

    The video doesn’t show up. I just get a Google “G’. Sounds like the same two guys who I posed a different video of earlier. I like their stuff and have watched others on occasion.

    So maybe just post the link?

  131. M Simon says:

    The video just showed up.

  132. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting read from Nassim Nicholas Taleb author of Black Swan and Anti Fragile

    Spreading rate:
    Historically based estimates of spreading rates for pandemics in general, and for the current one in particular, underestimate the rate of spread because of the rapid increases in transportation connectivity over recent years.This means that expectations of the extent of harm are under-estimates both because events are inherently fat tailed, and because the tail is becoming fatter as connectivity increases.

    reducing connectivity temporarily to slow flows of potentially contagious individuals is the only approach that is robust against misestimations in the properties of a virus or other pathogen.

    It will cost something to reduce mobility in the short term,but to fail do so will eventually cost everything—if not from this event, then one in the future. Outbreaks are inevitable, but an appropriately precautionary response can mitigate systemic risk to the globe at large. But policy- and decision-makers must act swiftly and avoid the fallacy that to have an appropriate respect for uncertainty in the face of possible irreversible catastrophe amounts to “paranoia,” or the converse a belief that nothing can be done

  133. M Simon says:

    Oh. yeah. The link


  134. M Simon says:

    Link to the previous video I posted of those guys.


  135. p.g.sharrow says:

    @E.M.Smith says:
    31 January 2020 at 3:13 pm
    I would concur with your prognosis. Chinese – Asian – men are most at risk as are the old and poor in health. Too little, too late, for much else except to care with your own health. Just like everything else in life, living has risks. Enjoy it. For most people this will be just a bad head cold.
    Whether the Disease it’s self or the political steps taken to deal with it, there will be economic ramifications from the disruptions caused. Serious economic retraction I would guess, even in the U.S. . The rest of the world is already in an economic retraction, this is another major nail in that box…pg

  136. E.M.Smith says:


    Not a head cold. As pointed out above, it binds to a lung receptor to infect. It will be a lower resipratory infection (“chest cold”) turning to viral pneumonia (with bacterial pneumonia sequelae risk) in at risk persons (more in old men and Asians).

    You are well positioned to lock down for a month or two once it hits Chico. Plus it will whack here first so I can be your canary :-)

  137. ossqss says:

    Seems the market caught a bad case of the virus today.

  138. E.M.Smith says:

    I’m still trying to project the economic impact. It will be bad.

    Just in time inventory from China is toast for a while. Months? I know I’m not going to touch any package from China.

    Retail? Not going out unless forced, not ordering packages from Amazon with unknown handlers.

    Travel? Presently on hold pending pandemic information quality.

    Food? Not going to restaurants at all and living off stored foods for a month or rwo.

    Gas? Tanks already full and not driving. It will be a quarter before I need gas again.


    So how many like me? vs. How many “fat dumb & happy”?

    Medical expenditures globally will rocket up, for a while…. as will crematoriums; but will the whole extended family want to gather for a germ sharing funeral? Limos & tux rental not so much.

  139. jim2 says:

    Taleb seems to be off the mark. There is no reason mankind can’t survive multiple pandemics.

    On a different topic, if lung tissue is the target, be sure to breathe through your nose. It will filter out some particulates.

  140. Larry Ledwick says:

    I have been fiddling with a spread sheet to try to project near term growth vs initial cases and an assumed growth rate.

    In the US it looks like this. We are early enough in the exponential growth curve that assuming no new initial cases outside of simple reinfections we get something like this here in the US

    growth rate = 1.24
    Initial number = 6
    day additional number of cases
    [Some Drunken Sott blew away the rest ’cause some other guy sayed so,,, n BREXIT happn’d… yeah blame it on BREXIT…]

  141. A C Osborn says:

    E.M.Smith says: 31 January 2020 at 4:38 pm
    Russia has closed their border with China before getting any cases, so at least Russia has clue.

    Too late Rusia has 2 cases like the UK.
    Conflicting stories coming out of the UK press, the 2 cases here are both Chinese visitors in the same family.
    The hotel they stayed at is still open??????
    The Government are saying they are trying to trace contacts in one breath and not giving out information about the patients due to “patient confidentiality in the other.

    The British people for Huwan have arrived here, the bus drivers are not wearing masks and neither were the people getting them off the plane.
    We are just “playing” and precautions & quarantine at the moment.

  142. Larry Ledwick says:

    Taleb is a specialist in this sort of calculation, he is right on, but he is looking at very large numbers and long time periods. (which by the way we have no way to know where we are on that time line).

    The statistics of large numbers and fat tailed curves guarantee that eventually a pandemic will wipe out all human life (if you go long enough).

    (good reason to get off the planet and create ark civilizations)

    The only question is – is that in 100 years or 500,000 years or 5 billion years.
    You only have to be unlucky once for ruin to occur, but have to be lucky many times to avoid ruin.

  143. Simon Derricutt says:

    Larry – that doesn’t look exponential to me. I think there’s a bug in the calculations.

  144. jim2 says:

    But past pandemics did not wipe out humanity in spite of the fact technology was more primitive. I think Taleb is off the mark.

  145. S.T. Taylor says:

    Latest update – 9925 total cases / 222 deaths

    Thailand and Singapore are starting to climb – could be in the low hundreds in both by middle of next week – if so that will probably be the next bloom. Both are bad due to the excessive traveling that occurs in those two nations – lots more potential carriers flowing through those two nations.
    Japan and S. Korea should be able to contain their cases???
    India will be the next big worry, however – if they can escape I’ll be shocked.

  146. Larry Ledwick says:

    “But past pandemics did not wipe out humanity in spite of the fact technology was more primitive. I think Taleb is off the mark.”

    Tell that to the Eskimo villages who were wiped out by the 1918 Spanish flu, and the American Indian tribes which were wiped out on the east coast when Europeans arrived.

    It only matters if it is your civilization that is wiped out??

  147. Larry Ledwick says:

    It is by definition exponential (it is basically compound interest, your savings account does not look like it is growing exponentially when you have a balance of $6.00, put 600,000 in the bank and the gain is a bit more impressive.

    Initial cases at time 1 (percentgain_per_day)^days = cases on day N
    In that calculation = 6 (1.24)^days
    Yes it is it does not “look” exponential until you get into larger numbers then you get the expected sharp turn up that we see in China right now.

  148. S.T. Taylor says:

    @ Larry Ledwick

    I think we will quickly see the exponential growth in Thailand and Singapore over the next 1-2 weeks….

  149. Larry Ledwick says:

    We just got the morning minor update total cases is 9,925, not going to bother with the screen capture since it does not mean much until the major update this evening.

  150. Larry Ledwick says:

    Breaking the News 24/7
    14 seconds ago

    Hong Kong researchers estimate there are more than 75,000 people who contracted #2019nCoV in Wuhan only, say epidemics ‘growing exponentially’

    This is starting to get traction on twitter, – the conclusion does not necessarily follow from the assertion, the presumption we know every possible way those changes could have occurred is a bit arrogant.

    Clan MacLeod
    11 minutes ago
    Replying to @wewantsarko
    #2019nCoV artificially modified w/ 4 HIV-1 RNA geomes; virus binds to glycoproteins in CD4 blood cells, just like AIDS. This is an inserted viral RNA, not naturally possible to mutate in this manner
    Hence, bio/ terrorism virus.

    Random chance is powerful if given enough throws of the dice – perhaps one of the precursors passed through a human which was HIV positive???

  151. Larry Ledwick says:

    3 minutes ago
    US – 2019-nCov declared as a public health emergency. Mandatory 14 day quarantine for US citizens who have traveled thru Hebei. Foreign nationals (except family) who have traveled inside China in the last 14 day will be denied entry to the US. from White House news conf. now.

  152. Another Ian says:

    “Corona virus and those exponential curves we don’t want”

  153. E.M.Smith says:

    Watching the US Gov live briefing, one bit caught my ear. One speaker obliquely referenced our dependence on a ‘medical supply chain from China’…. So how much of the medical supplies we need here will have a Chinese first claim on production and a quarantine cut off ?

  154. S.T. Taylor says:

    @ E.M. Smith

    That does not sound good but I know that most of our generics come from overseas in China, ect… However, most of the big Pharma companies have mfg capacity in Europe and the US for their front line drugs… so I don’t know how big a deal that really would be…

  155. E.M.Smith says:

    I’ve got Canada’s Global News up, the story title is that Trump temporarily suspends entry to US of foreign nationals. Waiting for the content to be something, but really? Have we stopped foreign nationals entering?

  156. Larry Ledwick says:

    Hmmm I got a mention on Joannenova – Cool!

    Thailand has now 19 confirmed.

  157. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like Trump has bsnned foreign nationals who have been in China, but not all. 5 PM EST Sunday.

    @Larry L:

    Oh lucky me… We are ready for lock down today so guess it is about that time…

  158. S.T. Taylor says:

    With so many Chinese who live and travel to the US – it was inevitable that we would see a climb in numbers eventually.

    @ E.M. Smith – stay safe!

  159. S.T. Taylor says:

    Johns Hopkins Dashboard updated to show 7 in the US –
    19 in Thailand and 13 in Singapore – 15 in Japan

  160. cdquarles says:

    In my opinion, *no* DNA/RNA sequence is *ever* lost to the system. Individuals/groups? Yes. The whole system? No. A purpose of viruses is to exchange DNA/RNA across species. Successful living things just have to be successful enough. The system is designed to maximize life as a whole and minimize loss, even if/when individuals and groups come and go.

  161. E.M.Smith says:


    There is a very large Chinese and Chinese derived community about 15 miles from me in Cupertino, with scatter through the whole area. I’d figured on today being the last day of being out and about. I suppose I ought to be gratified my estimates were confirmed, but I’d rather have been a paranoid git…

    So mass tomorrow will be 50 miles south in a strongly Hispanic community, then we close the doors… full protective protocol in place while we find out how big this “bloom” becomes.

    I’m prepped for between 60 and 90 days of lock down with only mild discomfort. IF things stay low we can resupply (from “away”) and if they go log up, we come out when it is over…

    As we’re in the last half hour to BREXIT, and I have Parliament Square live on the Roku, I’m off to that ’till it’s over. Cabernet Blanc and all :-) (did I mention I was prepared? ;-)

  162. M Simon says:

    Secret cremations in China

    A proper estimation of the death toll is #dead/#infected when the
    (soon to be) dead were infected.

    What is the real death toll? Depends on the number of days from infection to death.

  163. H.R. says:

    e.m.: ” Cabernet Blanc and all :-) (did I mention I was prepared? ;-)”

    You mentioned a run to Trader Joe’s last week and that 2 Buck Chuck was indeed… 2 bucks.

    We should expect you to be prepared to weather a year or so of isolation at that price. Come to think of it, you could buy out a measurable percentage of Napa Valley at that price point and still have a good bit of your “Sosh Scurity” check left over.


    (I’m swilling a Florida version of a Belgian Abbey-style Trippel Ale tonight. Not hoppy in the least. Fruity, with a kick like a mule, but little in the way of hangover. Easy on the stomach, too. Good stuff.)

  164. M Simon says:

    Simon Derricutt says:
    31 January 2020 at 7:25 pm

    simple check 1.24^90= 255830114. roughly – 255 million.

  165. Larry Ledwick says:

    Simon Derricutt says:
    31 January 2020 at 7:25 pm

    Hmmmm you are right – – – I must have something wrong with that spread sheet at home, can’t check it until I get off work.
    I was thinking you were commenting on the form of the equation, not the results, my error!

    Busy day here, things were a smoking heap when I got into work and when I first saw that comment so only now got the chance to really look at comments.

    EM can you blow away that list of numbers in that post, it is just way wrong, I will repost later.

  166. jim2 says:

    Already, some are tying to leverage “climate change” to form a world totalitarian government. The last thing we need is someone like Taleb saying this pandemic will wipe out humanity. Some things are worse than being dead.

  167. Larry Ledwick says:

    They put out the major update early tonight.

    —————————— from last night my guess on today’s numbers
    Since they released so early might have another update later this is at 8:43 local time in China the big update usually happens near noon local time in china.
    Larry Ledwick says:
    31 January 2020 at 3:23 am
    We finally got our major update. 9776 cases vs 7783 last night ( 25.6% change)
    If growth is the same tomorrow, cases will climb to 12,278 tomorrow.

    Deaths are at 213 vs 170 last night (25.3%)
    If the fatality rate remains the same, tomorrows number will be 267
    Early update is at 11374 vs my guess of 12,278 yesterday evening, will have to wait another 4 hours or so to see if the add to this total later.

  168. Larry Ledwick says:

    “The last thing we need is someone like Taleb saying this pandemic will wipe out humanity. ”

    Taleb is a mathematician who specializes in analyzing risk.
    He is not saying “this pandemic” will wipe out humanity, that is an invalid logical leap.
    He is saying they are doing their calculations wrong and fat tailed distributions allow extreme events far more often than naive mathematicians presume. As a result those naive calculations lead to poor decisions which do not anticipate extreme outcomes and are dangerous.

    He is saying that sooner or later “some” pandemic “could” wipe out humanity (at least locally) and we should decide on our protective actions with that that possibility in mind and take action early with that risk in mind because exponential growth is unforgiving if you get behind the curve responding to it – you can never catch up and will pay an awful price.

    I have seen this happen often in emergency management, managers make stupid conservative decisions because most of the time they get away with them. Sooner or later they always lose those gambles and it is innocent people that pay the price for their lack of courage, or understanding of the problems they are paid to mitigate.

    Since Mother Nature is almost never Gaussian , statistical analysis based on Gaussian assumptions is inherently flawed and leads to inherently flawed responses. It is like the officials who approve the building of a critically important building in a flood plane 2 ft above the 100 year flood zone boundary. (we have a county justice center here in Colorado which is built in such a location, when we have a 100+ year flood in that canyon if it does not get washed away outright the ground floor will be flooded 6 ft deep, and the government offices in that building will be destroyed.

    It should be a soccer field, or a park.

  169. Octave Fiddler says:

    AEC2 vs. ACE2 ?
    Also, That ACE2 paper has one asian male sample.
    Early days

  170. David A says:

    The above link is to an Indian research paper showing HIV genetic similarities in the Coronaviruse. Speculation that it is not a natural mutation.
    Informed comments by readers defend a possible natural path.
    However one of the 4 suspect sequences was found in bats, and as I recall that was a speciality if the Chinese virologist suspected if being involved in the Canadian bio theft.

  171. Larry Ledwick says:

    Selina Wang
    ‏Verified account

    Doctor in Wuhan on the front lines says accurately spotting the virus isn’t easy: “A patient may be found as negative for the first or second test, and then found to be positive the third time.” #CoronavirusOutbreak … @business @QuickTake

    Subsequent posts suggest that might be a problem with the method used to collect the test samples

  172. Larry Ledwick says:

    Breakthrough achievements in the treatment of new types of pneumonia! This is undoubtedly great news! On January 31, 2020, the New England Journal of Medicine reported that the first 2019-nCoV patient in the United States, on the seventh day of hospitalization, began to use the drug Remdesivir (Redsiewe, Gilead in the study of Ebola and MERS drugs), the next day to a fever, symptoms alleviated!

  173. Larry Ledwick says:

    Item on evacuation flight of Indian citizens from China

  174. E.M.Smith says:


    I’ll expect an introduction, when the time comes…

  175. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well if this proves to be true we have a problem Houston.

    6 minutes ago

    The New England Journal of Medicine says that 2019 novel corona virus stays with you and you remain a carrier even after you are recovered and no longer showing symptoms.

  176. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    1 February 2020 at 1:12 am

    Mother Nature is frequently Gaussian. And then there are the tails. So completely Gaussian? No.

  177. E.M.Smith says:

    An M.D. in the CDC briefing stated the test can yield a positive, then negative, then positive again; and we don’t know why. Test may be flaky. Or virus variable, or whatever.

  178. E.M.Smith says:

    While I remain in the “Nature screws with you” camp; there are so many things about this virus that are Just Right for a manufactured pathogen that I’m starting to wonder about those labs.

    Leaves kids alone.
    Variable virus load in tests.
    Prefers men.
    Latent virus in “recovered” patients.

    It reads like a virus weapon laundry list.

    No, I’m not convinced… but the point count is rising.

  179. Larry Ledwick says:

    Chinese doctors are also reporting they sometimes have to test several times to confirm if a patient is positive.

    Given their over load conditions I suspect their testing conditions are not ideal either which would add to the difficulty of getting reliable tests. The Chinese also report they are approving new test kits one which gives much quicker results.

    They may have to work out procedural issues to get consistent tests as well, things like minimum quantity of test sample, waiting time etc.

  180. Larry Ledwick says:

    Local communities are cutting themselves off to prevent travel

  181. ossqss says:

    I read some items earlier today with respect to the natural or not question. Many of the write up’s were looking at cellular level binding that was not an ordinary or expected thing. Being still in the early days of this from an actual usable data standpoint, I would expect reports to cover the board on anticipation and expectation. REM video redacted >>

  182. David A says:

    …regarding possible manufacturing if this virus.

  183. M Simon says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    1 February 2020 at 3:50 am

    Contraindication. Prefers Asian Men. Would China want a sick Army? Navy? Air Force?

  184. Larry Ledwick says:

    Symptom history of first US patient

  185. E.M.Smith says:


    The problem is that nature is messy . What we expect at it is not relevant. So a person with HIV could get some random corona virus (like a regular cold or some random bat virus) and it can recombine all on its own into a superbug.

    What people do is try to play with those natural processes and claim we are controlling it. We don’t.

  186. M Simon says:

    M Simon says:
    1 February 2020 at 4:18 am

    My point there was that this was not likely intentionally introduced. It could still be one that got away.

  187. E.M.Smith says:


    They could easily have seen that men have more of the receptor and not seen the racial distribution. People miss things more than they are perfect. It also could be a first step, figuring to add a race selector, or a drug blocker later, and it escaped. People screw up.

  188. ossqss says:

    @Larry, interesting graph on the 1st patient. Fever went away at day 8 based on their tracking data, but the cough still continues. May give some credence to some of the continued contagious factors. Unfortunately, we don’t really have a start date, only a came home date to start the clock.

  189. jim2 says:

    Worst case, the virus was mangineered and an effective vaccine created. Military, high government officials, and people liked by the totalitarians get vaccination, the virus released into the wild.

  190. David A says:

    True nature us messy. The skeptical comments on the HIV article, actually a paper, were informed comments asserting just that. ( I referenced those specific comments) Your background would clearly allow understanding them better then I.

    Yet my point was that creating such mutations would also use such messy sequences, and the fact that the bat derived sequence was an area that a Chinese researcher at the Wuton
    Lab was an expert in, and there was an apparent China theft of bio research from Canada is evidence if planned messyness!

  191. E.M.Smith says:


    To the best of my knowledge, no one has ever made an effective vaccine against a corona virus, aka “common chest cold”…

    Just sayin’…

    It would be worth $billions….

  192. M Simon says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    1 February 2020 at 4:25 am

    I guess what we should be looking for is infections in the PLA. That would show intent.

  193. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    It’s been 12 days since the Snohomish County man in his 30s was confirmed to have coronavirus.
    Dr. Jay Cook with Providence Medical Center says . . . message for the public is that doctors are successfully treating the first confirmed case of coronavirus in the United States.
    Link to KOMO News

  194. M Simon says:

    Here is the linkage desired, David.

    David A says:
    1 February 2020 at 2:18 am

    Indian paper on virus origins.

  195. M Simon says:

    Nancy & John Hultquist says:
    1 February 2020 at 5:54 am

    12 days in the hospital so far. And he is not discharged yet.

    I had a heart valve replaced last fall. I was in and out overnight.

    If we get ~100K current cases needing hospitalization we are going to need temporary hospitals.

  196. Larry Ledwick says:

    Okay let’s try this again, I made a stupid transposition error (wrong thing was getting raised to the exponent) in my first borked list.

    This is using a growth rate of 1.24 / day
    first column is days after 0 day when the first infection occurs to a single patient.
    Since you cannot have fractional people I am rounding to integers.

    growth rate = 	1.24
    Formula used is    initial patients (rate)^days
    day number	
    1	1
    2	2
    3	2
    4	2
    5	3
    6	4
    7	5
    8	6
    9	7
    10	9
    11	11
    12	13
    13	16
    14	20
    15	25
    16	31
    17	39
    18	48
    19	60
    20	74
    21	92
    22	114
    23	141
    24	175
    25	217
    26	269
    27	333
    28	413
    29	512
    30	635
    31	787
    32	976
    33	1210
    34	1501
    35	1861
    36	2308
    37	2862
    38	3548
    39	4400
    40	5456
    41	6765
    42	8389
    43	10402
    44	12899
    45	15995
    46	19833
    47	24593
    48	30496
    49	37815
    50	46890
    51	58144
    52	72099
    53	89402
    54	110859
    55	137465
    56	170457
    57	211366
    58	262094
    59	324997
    60	402996
  197. David A says:

    M.Simon, yep, and the comments skeptical of the paper were informed and enlightening. As E.M.said, nature is messy.

    However, there was apparently a theft of bio research from Canada by China. The stolen materials likely went to the laboratory in Wuton. At least one of the four suspicious sequences was in an area of genetic bio-research that a lead Chinese virologist, who also did work in Canada where the missing materials were taken, was an expert in. It would be prudent to know the likely natural sources of the other variant sequences and know if China has done extensive research on those as well.

    There are indications that this virus has a long asymptomatic time where it is still contagious.
    Easily mutates.
    Possibly allows animal or bird to human transmission.
    Is possibly carried in contagious form by cured individual’s.
    Strikes men most readily.
    Possibly requires long term care by survivor’s.

    Something has spooked the Chinese Government big time.

    Time will tell.

  198. Larry Ledwick says:

    The above implies that the Chinese are on about day 44 of the infection progression (assuming their numbers are accurate (which we know that they are not)

    If you assume true cases are around 78k – 110K they are on day 52 – 54 of the infection progression.

    (assuming the infection process started with a single patient.

    US progression from todays patient count of 7 known cases.
     (assuming we have no other contagious carriers in the country)
    Initial number = 	7
    day number	
    1	9
    2	11
    3	13
    4	17
    5	21
    6	25
    7	32
    8	39
    9	49
    10	60
    11	75
    12	93
    13	115
    14	142
    15	176
    16	219
    17	271
    18	336
    19	417
    20	517
    21	641
    22	795
    23	986
    24	1222
    25	1516
    26	1880
    27	2331
    28	2890
    29	3584
    30	4444
    31	5510
    32	6833
    33	8473
    34	10506
    35	13027
    36	16154
    37	20031
    38	24838
    39	30800
    40	38191
    41	47357
    42	58723
    43	72817
    44	90293
    45	111963
    46	138834
    47	172154
    48	213471
    49	264704
    50	328233
    51	407009
    52	504691
    53	625817
    54	776013
    55	962256
    56	1193198
    57	1479565
    58	1834661
    59	2274979
    60	2820974
  199. David A says:

    @Larry, 44 days does put it in the middle of December, although some claim earlier.

  200. Another Ian says:

    Moreon Indian paper

    Some serious disinformation and conspiracy theories about the 2019 Novel Coronavirus. ”


    “Chinese Censorship Goes Global: Facebook Agrees to Delete Corona Virus Posts Flagged by China”

  201. David A says:

    Was China capable of manufacturing the 4 main changes in the current coronavirus outbreak? Apparently they have been up to no good…

    There are apparently four genetic sequences – mutations.
    ? Did China have interest, expertise, and possession of these 4 sequences?
    ? If yes to the above, was that research and expertise active at and in possession of China’s Wuton labratory?
    ? Did or could these 4 changes account for the known or suspected alarming characteristics of the current Coronavirus?
    ? What are the chances all 4 mutations could naturally manifest in one virus?
    ? What are the chances all 4 mutations could naturally manifest in one virus 20 miles from the Level 4 lab capable of engineering those same changes?
    Do all mutations necessarily make a virus more effective in destructive ability?

    Reminds me of Jeremy Brett in ” The Dying Detective” where the bad guy attempts to kill Holmes with the one virus of which he is an expert.

  202. David A says:

    This study looked for binary mutations and classified positive or negative mutations…

    the binary classification setting, learning to discriminate between positive and negative instances. This setting is appropriate for Dataset 2: positive examples are in our experiments mutants labeled as highly susceptible to the drug class, negative examples are those with medium or low susceptibility.”

  203. M Simon says:

    David A says:
    1 February 2020 at 7:07 am

    Early reporting had the increase rate at 1.5X a day. Evidently the public health measures put in place have slowed things down. Some.

    Or the early numbers were just made up. Possibly the current numbers as well.

    1.24X a day is not “under control”.

  204. Larry Ledwick says:

    This early in the morning you see stuff right out of china showing up on twitter due to time difference
    it is now 8:00 – 9:00 pm in Wuhan so end of day for them.
    Found this thread almost all in Chinese so extracted translation of parts of it, you can feel the stress in the dialog. Not sure if everything is in proper order what with poor translation and twitter makes it hard to work through this stuff, one mistake and you get blown out of where you were and have to spend 15 minutes finding the post again.

    13 hours ago
    Today things getting worse,My father had a high fever and convulsions yesterday,My mother sweats a lot.we will go to the no.6 hospital,Go and see if we can arrange a bed,My dad is desperate now,saying He will not be save. I have comforted him,But i AM also fell helpless.#wuhan

    My parents are infected,Only one doctor , blood test 1-3 hour can have result ,CT test 2 hours,hospital dont give us RNA test. hospital dont have room.All infect patients in one room ,no food no drink ,this is Humanitarian disaster, this is Why Evacuation of all countries.

    February 1, today ready to go to the six hospital to see because from the house rented by parents is relatively close, convenient to eat life, yesterday we three people went to Tongji Caidian hospital area hungry for a day, no food, with dry food also no location heat, has been in line also did not have time to eat, saw a patient in the clinic needle oxygen, suddenly went away, funeral home car to pull away, Estimated to death did not give a diagnosis, too absurd, can not be reimbursed, no registration.

    Now they live together, I live alone Yesterday with the eight-year-old child video told him i may take a long time to go home He can’t give me a birthday [he mentioned in another post his birthday was coming up ] He cried I stopped crying My wife also put up at 6 a.m., called their parents, they didn’t sleep much, dad fever, lying down coughing cold, convulsions, saying sad words, my mother has been taking care of her, Also dare not call me at night, mother has been sweating at night, also did not sleep much.

    Hospitals have no beds for treatment, nor confirmed, patients also want to see a needle queue, but also to maintain normal living, to run the pharmacy, run the supermarket, these contacts will cause the spread of the virus, community notice said the suspect case and close contacts concentrated in the hotel, but can not take injections, may also be enforced, Presumably it is to put down the mobile phone, to prevent the family from spreading the truth, so I dare not send AChat Weibo for help.

    January 31 stiletto today continue to drive 20 kilometers to take parents to get injections Yesterday night did not sleep Today to find all kinds of relationships to sample the pharynx test child sampled see tomorrow can produce results my mother or do not want to row ct estimated fear of queuing cross-infection take pharynx 4 level protection huge aerosol sit in the court under the public exposure is simply not open today too tired body and mind Tired first sleep English really no strength to write bring your own translation will be to see it

    If I haven’t been caught vpn can also use but I made my own free google server is about to expire No accident I will continue to update if no update estimate is caught or isolated to receive mobile phone February 7th my birthday Hope I can update to that day Thank you everyone pay attention to protect themselves I estimate the situation has been out of control

    Thank you for your attention. I will have to drive 20 kilometers to take my parents to the clinic for an injection at 7 am tomorrow. I have to sleep. Thank you for retweet. God bless you.

    Jan 30
    Gov do nothing,just let people run for thier life,just wait them die or Self-healing.
    CCP Out of control this #CoronaOutbreak God save me God save #Wuhan.


    Just a quick snip of a personal post to give everyone a feel of what these poor souls are going through inside Wuhan. I wish them well but nothing much you can do but pass on their words so others know their experience.

    It is clear that inside the city they are overwhelmed.

  205. Larry Ledwick says:

    The Paper 澎湃新闻

    Verified account

    2m2 minutes ago
    Residents in Wuhan, #China queue up in front of drug stores to buy Shuanghuanglian oral liquid, which was alleged to restrain 2019-nCoV. Each is limited to buy five boxes of this drug at the price of RMB 35, a bit more expensive than the day before.

    Global Times
    ‏Verified account

    Patients cured of the #nCoV2019 are not totally immune from being affected for a second time. They are urged to rest fully to recuperate, a medical expert said at a press conference on Friday in Beijing.

    Deborah Verran

    Jan 31
    Replying to @globaltimesnews
    Can you clarify this point? Do the patients sustain a secondary infection from another organism or can they be reinfected with #nCOV2019 ?

    Jan 31

    Replying to @globaltimesnews

    Yohana| 💚Yibo 无感 |LEO mtjj 🦁 🦄
    Jan 31

    Replying to @globaltimesnews
    I thought the same because it’s basically a pneumonia. It will relapse again especially if your immune weak 😭

  206. M Simon says:

    One other confounding factor. Suppose we could get transmission to zero today. It might take as long as two weeks for that to show up in the statistics.

    When there are lags there are associated limits to how fast a process can be controlled. Measurement/process noise affects that as well. Was it a real change or just noise?

    Control theory. It is a fact of nature.

  207. cdquarles says:

    Please, folk. Common cold is a rhinovirus (prefers the upper respiratory tract). This is a coronavirus (prefers the lower respiratory tract). A coronavirus is also zoonotic (can pass across species), akin to the influenza virus. A function of viruses is to exchange DNA/RNA across species. It is not unusual for viral DNA/RNA sequences to remain with you for the rest of your life (herpes viruses, chickenpox viruses).

    All of that said, people do stupid stuff regularly, especially when viewed in hind sight. Could this be an experiment gone badly? Sure. Would governments, especially totalitarian ones, cover it up? You bet they would. Should governments study these things? You bet they should, particularly for defensive purposes. Would some GEB want one for offensive reasons? Naturally.

  208. David A says:

    @ Another Ian. I read the debunking article. Mostly it talked about how , as EM put it, nature is messy. The Indian release of the paper addressed those very defencies in the comments section of the link I provided and high lighted.

    Unfortunately it did not address the many circumstantial factors in the “greatgameIndia” publications- The recent theft of genetic material, the expertise of one suspected viraloligist who specialty happens to be bats, and his work in Canada and Wuton.
    The bio_research lab in Wuton and those connections to the Chinese virologist. Nor did it address claims that patient one ( early internet rumors) had been found and had nothing to do with the market in question. Nor did it address the possible affects those 4 ” in question” sequences had. ( It indicated that one of the changes did not affect contagion susceptibility.) But nothing conclusive about other possible affects of the changes.

    Nor did it attempt to explain any of the genetic anomalies responsible for the observed disparities in the pathology of this virus. In other words, what changes caused possible lack of susceptibility in children, increased contagion in males, a long variable asymptomatic period while still contagious, possible contagiousness after survival, and pissible animal to human contagion. Not did it address the odds of all the mutations being negative with regard to disease control.

    Nor did it address Chinese expertise in these very same viral genetic research fields, and the odds of all these coming together in Wuton, China’s top labratory doing research in this very area.
    Finally it did not address the possibility and feasibility that if one engineered a virus, and wanted to hide the creation, they would insert things that nature could have done as well.

    Yes, perfect storms are possible, and nature could be 100 percent responsible here. I would like to see the many postulated questions answered. Also China is clearly responding with extreme measures, while sending updates that in some respects appear less dangerous then the flu in the US right now.

  209. jim2 says:

    Creative Biolabs is a world leader in the field of viral vaccine development. With our strong expertise and advanced platform in vaccine field, we are therefore confident in offering the best vaccine development services for different types of diseases caused by virus from coronaviridae family, including coronaviruses and canine coronavirus, bovine coronavirus, SARS, and MERS coronavirus. We guarantee the finest results for our customers all over the world.

    Coronaviridae is a family of single-stranded, enveloped, positive RNA viruses. Coronaviridae family is comprised of two genera which are coronavirus and torovirus. Coronaviruses are well-established pathogens of humans, mammals, and birds while the toroviruses are recognized as causes of animal diarrhoea. Both are capable of causing a mild respiratory and enteric infection in humans and other vertebrate animals. Vaccines targeting several coronaviruses have been developed, and some have been demonstrated to be efficacious in preventing viral infection. Coronaviruses are also known to cause severe infections such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS).

  210. jim2 says:

    The need for human coronavirus vaccines was first identified in the mid-1960s. The best-known coronaviruses without a preventive vaccine are Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV), and a new virus, named 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

    As of February 1, 2020, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has not approved any preventive or therapeutic vaccine for SARS, MERS or 2019-nCoV for use in the USA.
    Coronavirus Vaccine Candidates

    The following list contains coronavirus vaccine candidates currently in human clinical trials:

    * INO-4700 is a DNA plasmid vaccine that expresses the MERS CoV spike (S) glycoprotein.
    * GLS-5300 MERS-CoV Vaccine – The GLS-5300 MERS-CoV product is a DNA vaccine candidate, which allows for rapid design and production in response to emerging infectious diseases.
    * ChAdOx1 MERS-CoV Vaccine – ChAdOx1 MERS is a vaccine candidate to treat Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV).

  211. jim2 says:

    There is also a summary of news releases concerning 2019-nCoV vaccine development plans.

  212. jim2 says:

    Precision Vaccinations home page is like a Drudge Report for vaccines:

  213. M Simon says:

    David A says:
    1 February 2020 at 2:34 pm

    The matching sequences were 6 to 8 bases long. And are found in lots of places.

    Unless someone “squeals” it will be difficult to PROVE man made.

    If it was man made I think the release was an accident. Why start it in the same city as the biolab? 3 or 5 cities over would be better. Reduce the strength of the connection.

  214. H.R. says:

    The D-I-L is due home tomorrow. She was going to stay another week or so to continue to protect her parents, but her options for getting the heck out of China narrowed considerably so she had to take the opportunity to leave while she could.

    I’m guessing she went out on a stock-up run before leaving so her folks will have a few more weeks before they have to go out and risk exposure.

    All passengers on the flight are required to wear n95 masks at all times except when eating. I’d imagine that hand sanitizer gels will be handed out liberally. That’s about the best the airlines can do, I suppose.

    I have no idea if she will undergo some sort of quarantine now that WHO and CDC are involved. I mentioned in an earlier comment that she naturally self-quarantines at home after one of her trips to China, but she may be isolated in a place not of her choosing. We shall see.

  215. David A says:

    I completely agree about any potential release being accidental. As the questions I ask are WAY beyond my knowledge, I make zero assertions, just questions.

  216. David A says:

    Regarding patient one this is what I found…
    According to Dr Paweł Grzesiowski from the Medical Centre of Postgraduate Education in Warsaw, Poland, the first person infected with the new coronavirus strain appears to have caught it elsewhere.

    He said: “What is interesting, is that Patient X, that is, the first – as it is suspected – to be infected with this microorganism at the beginning of December 2019, did not have any contact with the fish market where the infection could have occurred.”….

    …Now according to a paper published by a team of Chinese scientists, a study of 41 coronavirus patients has failed to found concrete links to Wuhan’s seafood market.

    The first known person to contract the coronavirus fell ill on December 1, 2019, and has no known ties to the market.

    The researchers further found “no epidemiological links” between Patient Zero and later infections.

    Of the 41 patients, only 27 were found to have had direct exposure to the Wuhan market.

    The study, published in The Lancet, reads: “The symptom onset date of the first patient identified was December 1, 2019….”

  217. E.M.Smith says:

    Per the bioweapon idea:

    HIGHLY unlikely.

    Why? Because RNA viruses mutate rapidly and have poor vaccine effectiveness. They tend to spread everywhere even to your own troops and population.

    Bioweapons are best when you can make a 100% effective vaccine, the agent only affects those exposed on the battlefield, and it stays stable after application. It also must be stable in long term storage and servive transport and deployment conditions. (Hot, cold, wet, dry…)

    This is why anthrax was a big focus for so long. It has the desired traits.

    IFF this was artificially created, it is almost certainly because someone was doing some general R&D, probably aimed at defending against viruses, and a screwup escape happened. IMHO, far more likely is that an HIV patient with suppressed immunuty, had a high viral load of some SARS like virus, and natural recombination happened somewhere in the billions of copy events.

  218. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A:

    The person BELIEVED to be patient zero….

    Here’s a reasonable hypothetical for you:

    A guy “patient zero” interacts with (say a shared taxi ride) has HIV and ate some exotic food animals from the “wet market” thinking it will give him energy. The recombination happens in him, and spreads to “patient zero”. The HIV patient then gets run over by a truck, or just dies of some other cause (or dies of the new bug, but given his medical history is expected to die of pneumonia so nobody thinks it important, and being HIV Positive, is handled with full PPE so no medical staff gets the infection )

    Now someone “patient zero” infected spreads it back to the market where everyone goes for shopping…

    THE basic problem is that information is faulty, sometimes speculative, and always incomplete, in contact tracing to a patient zero.

  219. Larry Ledwick says:

    Something to consider as cases increase

    February 01, 2020
    New study: Fecal-oral transmission of new coronavirus
    Via Sina News, a China News Network report: New study: fecal-oral transmission of new crown virus. The Google translation:

    A joint study by the People’s Hospital of Wuhan University and the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences found that viral nucleic acids were also found in stool and anal swabs of patients with new pneumonia.
    Based on this, the research team proposed that on the basis of droplet transmission and contact transmission proposed in the previous national authoritative guidelines, there is still a certain faecal-oral transmission of the new crown virus.
    Clinicians, especially gastroenterologists, should pay close attention to the atypical symptoms of new coronary pneumonia, and take personal protection against vomitus and feces. When the mildly ill patients are separated from their homes, special attention should be paid to the hand hygiene of individuals and family members, while avoiding sharing bathrooms with family members as much as possible.
    February 01, 2020 at 08:54 AM in Coronavirus, Hygiene, Occupational health & safety |

  220. Larry Ledwick says:

    Minor update has come out, looks like they dropped the big red dots on the map because it was just turning into a massive red blob.

    New numbers for today 12,024 confirmed cases
    259 total deaths
    287 total recovered (first time this has exceeded official deaths0

  221. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well on second thought it just took a long time for that layer to down load.

  222. David A says:

    E.M, that is a good argument against a bio weapon. Also yes, patient zero was not necessarily patient zero.

    So likely natural, but if not, likely accidental release. Our intelligence likely knows more then us, maybe. A good professional analysis of the entire genetic sequence and the likelihood of the changes and their specific affect. Human hubris is not wisely underestimated, so it is possible bad men could have thought they were developing something with a pathway to controlled containment, and it escaped internal security.

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