GHE 2019-nCoV Corona Virus Outbreak

As the prior thread is getting slow to load, I’m adding this new thread. There’s s lot of good information in the prior threads, so folks new to the topic, or looking at it historically at some future date, may wish to start there.

At the time of this posting, W.H.O. has declared a Global Health Emergency and the USA has announced foreign nationals from China will be excluded as of 5 P.M. Eastern time, Sunday. Russia has closed their Chinese border, as have some others.

Contagion to North America and Europe has happened (so far in small numbers) and elsewhere in Asia in larger numbers. It has probably started showing up in South America:

4 Suspected patients in Peru.

And some suspected in Africa:

As of 2020-01-30 09:00 AM there are no confirmed cases of this virus. Updates are posted to the National Institute for Communicable Diseases’ Twitter

The closest suspected cases are four patients in Ethiopia. The initial test on them came back negative, but Ethiopian authorities have sent blood samples to us for confirmation.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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217 Responses to GHE 2019-nCoV Corona Virus Outbreak

  1. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like the US is now at 8 confirmed cases (new one identified in Boston)

  2. Larry Ledwick says:

    China may be getting a double whammy here:

  3. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like the zerohedge twitter account has been permanently suspended.

  4. Larry Ledwick says:

    Also nearly lost in the noise China has a third issue to deal with. This is going to be a long year in China (interesting times)

    China reports new H5N6 bird flu case in Xinjiang region

    (Reuters) – China’s agriculture ministry said on Monday it had detected the highly pathogenic H5N6 strain of avian flu in swans in its western Xinjiang region.

    The case is the third this month of the strain in swans in Xinjiang.

    The ministry said 13 swans had died in the Manas county wetlands near Changji city that were inhabited by around 800 birds.

  5. Larry Ledwick says:

    How to properly wear a mask- short video in link (assuming you are not wired for a TV interview ;) )

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    The blockade of Wuhan has also blocked the 1800 tons? / day of chicken feed to a 3 million? bird chicken operation and the birds are nearing starvation (per an Ice Age Farmer youtube sort-of remembered…). Starving birds are prone to easier infection…

    Oh, and Doxing is universally evil. So do evil, get slammed. Oh Well.

  7. Pingback: W.O.O.D. – 1 February 2020 | Musings from the Chiefio

  8. Larry Ledwick says:

    Time to post an archival image of US known infections

    And Europe

    And Australia

    None of the other maps have much activity on them yet.

  9. Larry Ledwick says:

    The blockade of Wuhan has also blocked the 1800 tons? / day of chicken feed to a 3 million?

    That is going to be the next hurdle how to feed those cut off cities. Airdrops, rail deliveries with special trains or road trains of approved trucks are the only option unless they want to allow Medieval Siege conditions to develop.

    Every day they delay a solution they burn up food reserves in the city. A city of 11 million people need about 16 million pounds of food a day for maintenance diet. (approx 400 semi loads of food)

  10. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like the virus is also present in stools of patients with Diarrhea. Oral Fecal contamination route may be getting over looked as people try to control spread of the virus.

  11. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting to note that by definition, you cannot be an asymptomatic carrier of 2019-nCoV under current guide lines. That strongly suggests asymptomatic carriers are being selected out of case data even though we have multiple case descriptions that support the assumption that it can be carried by asymptomatic individual.

  12. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    Also the “flush” aerosolizes the virus in the tidy bowl and the stuff stays suspended for about 20 minutes. i.e. Public Toilets are also the Virus Exchange…

    So “hold it ’till you get home” for a while…

    And yeah, that whole “ignore unless with fever” is something I’ve been flogging as a mistake for a while now.

    So I wonder if anyone is doing air sample testing in airport restrooms?

  13. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    1 February 2020 at 9:23 pm

    Suppose you just have a very mild cough? Is that a symptom? A runny nose with the occasional sneeze?

    Asymptomatic doesn’t mean without symptoms. It means the symptoms are not very severe or noticeable. At least that is the message I’m getting.

  14. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    1 February 2020 at 8:39 pm

    For the most part people do not think about logistics until they don’t have any.

    Amateurs study battles. Professionals study logistics.

  15. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well my Pizza just arrived so I am good for the reasonable future.

    Saw an interesting post a bit ago they person said they were going to gradually escalate protective procedures. About every week they wil re-evaluate the situation and upgrade as necessary.

    Since it has been about 35 years since it did training on contamination control I am trying out some things to refresh skills and the thought process.

    For example you realize how hard it is to get car keys out of a front pants pocket with gloves on?
    Like food service workers for some tasks it is useful to have one gloved hand and one free hand to solve some of those problems.

    If you are wearing gloves do you know how to get them off without cross contaminating your hands? Like that video how to take a surgical mask off without touching the outer contaminated service?

    I tried some thin mechanics type gloves – they work for most things but are bulky and mask you sense of touch enough that it is really difficult to get things out of pockets.
    I found some thin fabric compression gloves that are actually touch screen friendly that with a bit of effort I can still work my cell phone touch screen controls with them on.

    They fit tight so will be difficult to get off without some pre-planning, they do have some lines of grippy stuff on them so you can pick up slick plastic or cardboard containers, which was a real challenge with the mechanics gloves.

    I think the solution is to use nitrile inner gloves for the actual contamination control and these thin compression gloves on the outside to help protect the nitrile gloves.

    That is an experiment for this evening when I have nothing better to do. Sort out these minor procedural issues now when it is no big deal so you don’t have to learn on the fly when it really matters. I figure most people in the US have 3 – 4 weeks to work out kinks before we get to confirmed cases greater than 3000 and public concern forces people to change behavior.

    Then no one will think twice about someone wearing gloves or masks etc.

  16. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well here it is first post I’ve seen trying to tie the outbreak to global warming. This cargo cult science is getting really old!

    Miguel Angel
    3 minutes ago
    Los combustibles fósiles han liberado cantidades de dióxido de carbono y otros gases de efecto invernadero suficientes como para afectar al clima mundial. El aumento de la mortalidad por altas temperaturas y el cambio de la distribución de enfermedades infecciosas. ARD 2019-nCoV

    Translated from Spanish by Microsoft
    Fossil fuels have released enough carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to affect the global climate. Increased mortality from high temperatures and changing the distribution of infectious diseases. ARD 2019-nCoV

  17. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    1 February 2020 at 10:40 pm

    Hilarious isn’t it – if you think about it.

    Corona viruses are “cold” viruses. They don’t do well in warm weather. “Flu” is the name of a SEASON.

    So global warming will reduce the number of “colds”. Heh.

  18. Larry Ledwick says:

    Keeping in mind this could also be misdirection as well as well-intentioned analysis – food for thought.

  19. E.M.Smith says:

    In the German cases, a woman from China had asymptomatic transmission to 2 men, one of which transmitted it to 2 other men. She returned to China, then got sick. The men, so far, have had mild illness.

    I wonder if the much lower level of ACE2 in Europeans, will be enough to avoid dramatic illness and death?

    Do we now have an existance proof?

    So far it looks like the deaths are worse in Asia. FWIW, one of the Toronto cases has been released (recovered) and sent home for self quaratine convalescence.

    Oh, and R0 now at 4.08

  20. Larry Ledwick says:

    The afternoon update has occurred total cases 13,968, total deaths 304 and total recovered now at 331.

  21. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting site that is trying to post authoritative information on the 2019-nCoV virus. They say they will be doing updates as they find new information.

  22. Compu Gator says:

    KRON-TV (S.F.) had reported
    Santa Clara County confirms first case of coronavirus
    by: Kayla Galloway, Rob Fladeboe
    Posted: Jan 31, 2020 / 01:25 PM PST / Updated: Jan 31, 2020 / 05:56 PM PST

    The patient is a resident in Santa Clara County, the health department said. The patient had traveled to Wuhan, China and traveled home on Jan. 24. He arrived home to the San Jose airport. He has not left his home and has had very few contacts since his return, a county official said. The county said he came into contact with “very few” people since returning to the U.S. from China and has been “self-isolating.”

    The county assured the case does not heighten the risk of coronavirus to the general public in Santa Clara County.


    Riiighhht! The Santa Clara County Health Department can issue that assurance, because the county knows that the patient completed his journey home by using an experimental transporter, beaming him from SJC to his own front door. So thanks to the latest “insanely great” technology in Silicon Valley, no future patient kindly picked him up at the airport, he wouldn’t have ridden back to his parked car on an airport shuttle, nor ridden all the way home in a taxi, Uber, Lyft, &c. vehicle. So he wouldn’t have stopped on his way home at a convenience store, where their refrigerator cases have shiny virus-preserving metal handles. Uh, huh.

    Maybe it’s just my cynical streak, but if I still lived in Santa Clara Co., I would not feel “assured”. I wonder how quickly grocery shelvesshelves in that county will empty?

  23. Compu Gator says:

    Ooops! Oooh E.M.! E.M.! Please zap my own log line, unintentionally revealing my e-mail address, ASAP. I failed to remove from the top of my post. Thanks!

    [Reply: Like that? -EMS. ]

  24. Octave Fidder says:

    I’ve seen references to ACE2 and AEC2. Who’s on first?
    Also, the ACE2 study had N=1 Asian guy.
    Much better than N=0, but otherwise thin.
    I assume that is still the case, one paper with one volunteer sampled.
    One wonders if those were young medical students…

  25. Larry Ledwick says:

    A look at Wuhan under quarantine.

  26. andysaurus says:

    So all the chickens are being culled or starved to death and all the pigs have already been killed to control African Swine Fever. Sounds like protein is going to be at a premium.

  27. E.M.Smith says:

    @Octave Fiddler:

    I’m pretty sure it’s ACE2

    This is per SARS, but names the enzyme.

    SARS-Coronavirus follows the replication strategy typical of the Coronavirus genus.

    The primary human receptor of the virus is angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), first identified in 2003.



    Not only that, but they are burning up the Soylent Green!

  28. E.M.Smith says:


    The local Walmart is sold out of all rubbing alcohol… I’ve not checked other places.

  29. andysaurus says:

    @E.M. Haha. Hard to find something that falls into my plan B list of jokes. In fact I have a reputation to live down to.

  30. Larry Ledwick says:

    New update now 14,174 confirmed cases world wide.

    I think the proper usage is AEC2 (ie alveolar epithelial cell)

    Gas exchange in the lung occurs within alveoli, air-filled sacs composed of type 2 and type 1 epithelial cells (AEC2s and AEC1s), capillaries, and various resident mesenchymal cells.

  31. E.M.Smith says:

    From the “Too Close For Comfort” department…

    Looking into the Santa Clara case, it was a flight in to San Jose Airport.

    My wife returned from Chicago to San Jose Airport.

    Both on the 24th….

    Oh Dear…

    But spouse was on Southwest, , domestic terminal. China flights are to International terminal, and mostly United or American Airlines I think…

    So within a few hundred meters of each other, but in different buildings and hopefully very different hours…

  32. philjourdan says:

    The hysteria is overtaking the hype. I guess in the age on twitter and twits that is to be expected. But it really is overblown. Every sniffle sneeze or cough is going to be the existential proof of global warming.

  33. E.M.Smith says:

    So might it be the ACE2 receptor in the AEC2 cell?

  34. Octave says:

    I wore my 3m respirator on my flite home to SJC, and throughout the airport. The one I bought for ~$40 was for painters and had vapor sorbents as well as P100 rating, like HEPA but also for oils and solvents. Significant inspiratory effort, especially when hiking out to the back of lot 6. I took it off at the end of lot 4. But hearing that SC County pt #1 went through 4 days prior, I’m glad I did.
    I seemed to be more sniffly than usual; I think the effort to enhale was causing excess ingestion from my tear ducts, which is suboptimal, even with close-fitting glasses.
    I subsequently noticed that 3m has p100 filters with no sorbents, such as #2091, and then I saw ‘improved’ version #2291 I think. The 2091 are bright fuscia. I think I’ve seen people ambulating near Stanford hospital sporting these as facial fashion. Much easier to breath, and very comfortable with the 7502 ‘faceplate’. I had no sense of ‘rebreathing’ or claustro.
    My face got sweaty in the seal areas, upon exertion.

    So, if you have to be out among the G.U.M., maybe this helps.
    I need to figure out a handling/decontamination routine.
    My fine mesh brass wire cloth is not arrived, maybe will make outer envelope to make donning/removal more idiot-proof.
    Other lessons; ‘how to get a drink’ ?
    Glasses vs. mask for nasal ‘real estate’ and encroachment…
    Verbal Muffler effect on consonants.
    TSA made me take it off, but gave a paper towel for the bowl-ride through xray.
    Asked if I was going overseas. Laughed when I said ‘I promised my wife to bring nothing home’.

    No one else mentioned it.
    If I could read faces, it was ‘Hmmm, what does Prof. Poindexter know that I don’t?’

    Employer started restricting purchase of N95 and bunny suits on the global purchase tool as of Jan 25. Written permission needed.
    Own Opinions Only

  35. E.M.Smith says:

    Single-cell RNA expression profiling of ACE2, the putative …
    Search domain
    2019-nCov and ACE2 is weaker than that between SARS-Cov and ACE2, it is still much higher than the threshold required for virus infection. Zhou et. al. conducted virus infectivity studies and showed that ACE2 is essential for 2019-nCov to enter HeLa cells. 7. These data indicated that ACE2 is likely to be the receptor for 2019-nCov. The
    Single-cell RNA expression profiling of ACE2, the putative …
    Search domain
    A novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December of 2019. This new coronavirus has resulted in thousands of cases of lethal disease in China, with additional patients being identified in a rapidly growing number internationally. 2019-nCov was reported to share the same receptor, Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), with SARS-Cov. Here based on the …
    Single-cell RNA expression profiling of ACE2, the putative …
    Search domain…/comments/ew9653/singlecell_rna_expression_profiling_of_ace2_the…/comments/ew9653/singlecell_rna_expression_profiling_of_ace2_the
    Single-cell RNA expression profiling of ACE2, the putative receptor of Wuhan 2019-nCov | bioRxiv.… comment. share. save hide report. 100% Upvoted. Log in or sign up to leave a comment log in sign up. Sort by. best. no comments yet. Be the first to share what you think!
    Expression of ACE2, the putative receptor for Wuhan 2019 …
    Search domain
    Expression of ACE2, the putative receptor for Wuhan 2019-nCov, is expressed several fold higher in asian populations. … (2019-nCoV / NCVIP). We believe that the uncensored information provides a better monitoring system of the spread of the illness and provides us with the ability to come to our own conclusion about the event.

    Doesn’t find much relevant.

  36. Compu Gator says:

    E.M.Smith [said] 2 February 2020 at 1:12 am [GMT]
    The local Walmart is sold out of all rubbing alcohol … I’ve not checked other places.

    Thanks for the heads up, but I’m now in Central Florida.
    And practically grounded by a 3rd day of influenza symptoms, delaying me from prep-shopping adventures. Maybe I’ll feel up to that tomorrow. Great timing, huh? And no, i have never travelled to China’s side of the Pacific.

    But thanks especially for your pleasingly prompt edit for which I pled in my hasty previous post.

  37. E.M.Smith says:

    You’re welcome.

    I suspect here in Santa Clara county, the actual presence of an active case has caused more stocking up than elsewhere. I expect Florida will be laid back about it until someone gets infected.

  38. Larry Ledwick says:

    The classic problem with preparedness for any emergency, is better to prep 2 days early than 10 minutes late.

    Once a problem becomes obvious to the public, retail stocks of what ever they deem useful do not last long.

    If you really need to come up with some sort of a mask you can make expedient masks which are better than nothing out of readily available materials.

    We investigated things you could use as fallout masks, in the Civil defense program these won’t be N95 masks but much better than no mask at all to stop large particulates, dust and droplets.

    This design was a variant of an expedient mask devised by the Soviets

    You can take a standard mans tee shirt and fold it into a multi layered pad ( remember that antifa Tee shirt face mask?)

    Ninja mask from a Tee shirt

    Take what ever you can find and you can fashion into a particulate mask. Again it won’t be N95 class but it will stop droplets and keep you from touching your face.

    Multiple layers are far more effective than their number of layers – ie 2 layers is much better than 2x the protection of a single layer, 3 layers much better than 3x. I have heard that 4 layers of tee shirt approaches a proper particulate mask, but can’t find a reference right now.

    Paper disposable coffee filters can be breathed through!

    Look for the fold flat truncated cone paper style. You would have to fashion a way to hold them tight to your face but you can comfortably breath through one of them. (again better than nothing for short term use – ie have to run into the drug store to pick up medicine)

    You would probably want to use more than one layer but make do with what you have and can fabricate. Maybe make a cloth carrier to hold them tight to your face.

    For me (I have no breathing issues like asthma) One coffee filter is easy to breath through, two have noticeable resistance and three would get uncomfortable for any long duration use.
    They would get wet over time from condensation which raises the issue of absorption of surface droplets, but again better than holding your breath.

    A bit of home fabrication and you can work out something that would work in an emergency.
    Remember the key weakness of particle masks is how they seal to the face (facial hair makes it nearly impossible to get a good seal so for me if it comes to that, I would have to do some shaving of my beard.)

  39. E.M.Smith says:

    OTOH, while not virus proof, I have curled my upper lip to stuff a wet mustache against my nostrils and it reduced smoke smell significantly.

  40. Larry Ledwick says:

    So sad to see these video clips – nothing we can do from here, but try and be prepared when it gets here in force, but this is what the Chinese people are dealing with right now.

  41. Larry Ledwick says:

    Quicky guide to mask types.

  42. jim2 says:

    Defense Secretary Mark Esper on Saturday approved Department of Defense (DoD) housing at four military bases for 1,000 people who may have to be quarantined as a result of the coronavirus, following the appearance of the eighth confirmed case of the disease in the U.S.

  43. Larry Ledwick says:

    They continue to update the charts, almost hourly now, instead of a couple times a day.

    Confirmed cases now at 14,549 deaths at 305 and recovered at 340
    Current time in Wuhan is 12:26 pm (just after noon)

    US now has 8 confirmed cases, and the Philippines has recorded the first death outside of China.

    This generation of the slope map for the confirmed cases, has a noticeable increase in the slope with these recent updates. That either means the contagion is spreading faster or authorities are catching up with back log.

  44. Larry Ledwick says:

    In the time it took me to prepare the images for the prior posts they have increased count by 7 new cases. Now at 14,556.
    We have finally reached the point where updates are going to be nearly continuous now so I will make two archival posts a day one in the morning US time and one near noon in China (about 9:00 pm MDT in the US)

  45. ossqss says:

    What to watch.

    The deaths have been below the recoveries the last few days. How does that get calculated?

    Who is considered recovered?

    If this thing was related to a Bio weapon, it isn’t doing too well.

  46. p.g.sharrow says:

    @ossqss; the object of Biological and chemical weapons is to cause causalities that require treatment, use up resources, not deaths. It takes the services of 10 people to care for 1 incapacitated person. This thing seems to make people very sick but not all that deadly to people in reasonable health. Disruption of society and overloading the health system looks to be the main outcome. A bad influenza to be sure. Whether an escaped bio-weapon or just bad luck, the result is the same. We don’t even know if a recovered infection will confer immunity…pg

  47. Larry Ledwick says:

    As has been commented on twitter also, we don’t know if this bug will cause any long term problems for those infected. It could also set them up for other medical issues like COPD later in life, even though they survive or chronic organ problems (heart lung kidney), we know it can cause kidney damage – lots of other unanswered questions.

    I think recovered just means they are healthy enough to leave the hospital and do without active medical support like no fever clear lungs on xray, and more or less normal appetite and serious cough or fever etc.

    Some diseases can relapse, as recovery is only temporary so we also have to see if there are those kinds of complications.

  48. Larry Ledwick says:

  49. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    1 February 2020 at 10:51 pm

    The technical analysis guy also went after the WOD

    He is scathing.

    I have added a comment to his screed. Note that he claims to be NSA. So, why don’t his concerns bubble to the top? HRC nailed it “There is too much money in it.” Persecuting abused children for profit. How low can you go?

    In many ways our elites are the moral equivalents of Soviets or Maoists or that little German thing. There is no difference in kind. Just degree.

  50. M Simon says:

    From a Google search on “flu season”

    What month is flu season?

    This time of year is called “flu season.” In the United States, flu viruses are most common during the fall and winter months. Influenza activity often begins to increase in October and November. Most of the time flu activity peaks between December and February, and it can last as late as May.

  51. M Simon says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    2 February 2020 at 1:29 am

    Which brings up the question. Decontamination of aircraft.

  52. M Simon says:

    Corona infecting aircraft travelers (prevention)

    Their advice? Get a window seat. It will help.

    illnesses are most likely to be transmitted only to passengers within one row of the infected person.

  53. A C Osborn says:

    M Simon says: 2 February 2020 at 8:40 am
    “illnesses are most likely to be transmitted only to passengers within one row of the infected person.”

    Don’t they know Aircraft have Pressurised aircon and circulation?
    Perhaps the passengers should wear Oxygen air masks for the whole journey?

    Planes, Trains, Buses, Taxis, Toilets and just about every door handle need decon.
    If this was Ebola there would 1000s dead by now with the current levels of isolation and decon in most of the world.
    One idiot said face masks weren’t necessary, just wash your hands as if that is the only method of contamination.

  54. llanfar says:

    Time 12:22
    “Do you know what fear’s R0 factor is? It’s in the thousands.”

  55. Richard Bellew says:

    @A C Osborn: On Friday you posted a comment to the effect that the U.K. government was only playing at isolation. I had watched the TV coverage of the 747 arriving at Brize and come to much the same conclusion. But on reflection I started to wonder how the authorities could have been so amazingly casual. Then today I saw a TV interview (Sky News) with one of the people on that 747 in her isolation apartment (a Dr Yvonne Griffiths). She said she was sharing a four bedroom flat with three other people (clearly not her family), their own bathroomS (I think) but a shared kitchen. It seems to me the only possible conclusions: Gross incompetence or deliberate, for research purposes. Consider this scenario: you are responsible for protecting the health of the entire nation; you are faced with an outbreak of a hitherto unknown virus which seems to be very infectious and to have a high mortality rate; and there’s no known treatment, cure or vaccine; but that’s all you know. Then you are under pressure to repatriate those of your citizens who are trapped in China. The obvious solution is to fly them back, give them the best possible supportive care, let them mingle, measure everything you can, debrief them on what happened to them in China, and watch and see what happens over the next fortnight. This way you get brownie points for compassion and humanitarianism and you get a trove of invaluable data on which to plan your response to the virus in U.K. Oh, and one more thing, you call President Trump and ask him if he can get CDC to do the same thing with the repatriated US citizens (who re reported to be at Travis AFB in California). Anyway, that’s what I’d have done. What do you think of this scenario? Best regards. RGB

  56. E.M.Smith says:


    “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”

    Your scenario requires a malicious intelligence, both properties not in evidence. (Though possibly being hidden)


    End stage mortality is caused by ARDS. Seems high dose Vit. C cuts ARDS mortality rates a lot, but folks don’t know why. I’m OK with not knowing why in a pandemic…

    In the NIH funded study in the 2nd part of this video, they used 50mg/ kg every 6 hours. That’s like 3.5 grams per round. I’ve pointed out before that 10 grams / day is effectively an upper bound, or near it. In the first trial much lower dose was used but still with good effect.

    So, IMHO, this adds credence to the idea that Vit. C intake can help improve your odds of avoiding ARDS and mortality from nCoV.

  57. ossqss says:

    To piggyback on the recovered question. How do they determine when you are recovered and not still contagious as there is still debate on if you are contagious without symptoms to begin with? Considering the lack of definitively proven facts associated with this whole thing, I cannot imagine people who are deemed recovered being released back into the wild very quickly. But, hey WHO knows :-)

  58. Larry Ledwick says:

    I would submit the pathway that Vitamin C uses to improve survival is it’s action on damage due to Hypoxia.

    It is well known that under high dosage vitamin C subjects tolerate low blood oxygen levels.

  59. A C Osborn says:

    Richard Bellew says: 2 February 2020 at 3:11 pm
    It is possible, but they let those unmasked Coach drivers leave and told them to self isolate.
    Yet the medic in the caoch appears to have been in a full Hazmat suit.
    They are now looking for 380 “lost” people possibly infected.
    Doesn’t sound very professional to me, more like incompetence.

  60. Larry Ledwick says:

    One thing that is clear from years of teaching radiation contamination control (very similar to biohazard control), most people really don’t comprehend well all the pathways to secondary transfer of contamination.

    Best illustration I found used for that, is to before class, sprinkle some of that party chalk that glows under UV light someplace in the class, then after a while turn out the lights and use a UV lamp to show people where it moved to during their normal interactions.

    Sound contamination control is not easy or trivial lots of people have to do everything right, only one person getting careless can screw the entire control process by providing a back door exit.

  61. M Simon says:

    llanfar says:
    2 February 2020 at 2:09 pm

    She has issues with bathrooms next to food prep areas. This is a natural result of engineers limiting the plumbing costs in building designs. You would have to change building codes to change that.

    And then wait a hundred years for most of the building stock to be replaced.

    Wash your hands – 3 minute video and more.

  62. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    2 February 2020 at 5:01 pm

    Radioactive is easy. We have portable radios for that (Geiger counters).

    A new virus is tough. No radios.


    We had to clean up the living space for my recovery after surgery some months back. It was a revelation getting my wife to think about contamination issues. And then she came to the conclusion after a few minutes thought that perfection was impossible. “Much improved” was possible. And that is usually good enough. The body tends towards homeostatic.

  63. E.M.Smith says:

    I think it may have been my early indoctrination in disease vector control both on the “farm” (in Dads toy farm …) and the restaurant that got me started on good practices. Then working in a couple of hospitals (after chemistry and bacteriology classes) got me well along the way.

    But even then, there are times you think you are on top of things and find you are scratching your nose… Come to think of it, a big part of my training was working with electricity. I first “wired hot” ( electricity on…) at 7 years old. Over the years, I think I’ve been “bit” a half dozen times (mostly working with tube radio gear…). Nothing like a few hundred volts to tell you to do better. I think now I rarely fail… but only rarely, not “never”…

  64. M Simon says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    2 February 2020 at 3:40 pm

    I have found that when fighting infections a gram of Vit. C an hour works pretty well. You are overdosed when you stat emitting significant methane.

    Pre-infection watch your urine color. Yellow is good. Clear = more Vit.C required.

  65. cdquarles says:

    Hmm, if that’s the case, why would glutathione not help. Normal tissue oxygenation pressure is about 40mm Hg (normal atmosphere is some 4x higher, at sea level). I tried to look at both studies you cited. One was behind a paywall. The other uses bad statistical methods, so I wouldn’t be surprised if another (also using bad statistical methods) comes along and contradicts it. I also didn’t see a proper error analysis and propagation, either; so I’m going to take it with a grain of sodium ascorbate ;p. Flip side … glutathione, ascorbate and other anti-oxidants work by scavenging activated oxygen species, such at superoxide radicals, hydroxyl radicals, sodium hypochlorite and peroxides.

    About contamination control, damn straight, your example is excellent Still, dose-response curves, if known, should be applied.

  66. M Simon says:

    Richard Bellew says:
    2 February 2020 at 3:11 pm

    Morally what you suggest is doing experiments on people who have not given their consent.

    That is usually considered bad form these days. (That Hitler guy ruined so much)- /sarc

  67. Larry Ledwick says:

    This implies that all those summary cremations in China were suspected 2019-nCoV cases.

  68. Larry Ledwick says:

    File this under “well Duh!”

    I am astonished at the inability of people to grasp the obvious and need an article like this to explain it to them – of course I assume people should at least have a clue about how the world works but I am repeatedly reminded that most people simply have no clue.

  69. Larry Ledwick says:

    Wondering what the real construction time for this hospital was – I would bet much of it was pre-fab design that was already available when they began clearing ground. Likely started designing and fabricating elements of it back in early January when it was obvious to the insiders what was going on.

    Maybe they have been building that design for months or years and just ramped up construction of the pieces. Just delivery time of key components like ventilation systems should have taken longer than 10 days.

  70. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interior views look more like a prison module than a hospital ( Hmmmmm)

  71. M Simon says:

    Reports I have seen indicates that the hospital design dates back to the SARS problem.

  72. Larry Ledwick says:

    More on the “hospital” design.

  73. Another Ian says:

    “Stinks: Slow WMO let CoronaVirus run. But Ethiopian WMO chief was part of China’s debt trap diplomacyStinks: Slow WMO let CoronaVirus run. But Ethiopian WMO chief was part of China’s debt trap diplomacy”

  74. Ossqss says:

    @Larry, so upon reading that USAtoday article, we should go and buy a pallet of large rubber bands and a pallet of Lysol wipes, integrate, and sell them as 99.9% virus proof facemasks. We could make millions! /Sarc

  75. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like CA has another confirmed case.

    BANDIT XRAY 🇺🇸 ⚔
    17 minutes ago

    NEW: California reports another case of coronavirus, 9th in the U.S. Santa Clara County’s second case – Woman recently traveled to Wuhan, China – She has stayed home since she arrived, except for twice to seek medical care.


    BREAKING: 9th case of coronavirus confirmed in the U.S. — an adult female in Santa Clara County, California – KABC

  76. Larry Ledwick says:

    A snippet from the spread sheet I was working on the other day presuming a growth rate of 24% per day and starting calculations at 7 initial cases.

  77. M Simon says:

    1,000 beds means a lot of equipment to calibrate these days. Just a power up test is going to take time.

  78. E.M.Smith says:

    Equipment? Test?

    I think equipment will be ramen bowls and test will be patient one…

  79. S.T. Taylor says:

    As a vet I have to say I loved the Johnny Cash commercial just now before the SB. I’m pretty proud of that ragged ol flag too!

  80. S.T. Taylor says:

    @ EM Smith

    It’s pretty easy to throw up a pre fab building but u are correct – not a true hospital. More like triage or hospice center. All for show.

  81. David A says:

    Look at Larry’s photo of the new hospital here…

    Blow up the upper left hallway photo. There appears to be something like plexiglass walls periodically across the hallway??

  82. Larry Ledwick says:

    I think those are cable trays on the ceiling and joints between prefab modules on the floor, note that there are extension cords and cables that cross over those boundaries so nothing physical there now.

  83. E.M.Smith says:

    Were I making a prefab hospital, I’d have electricity, water, air, plumbing all built in, but all equipment in self contained carts. Just roll in a bed and equipment rack and plug in.

  84. Larry Ledwick says:

    I was pondering this idea the other day, and especially for casual use in open air environments it seems like a reasonable solution. Especially for cloth type masks.

    An hour in an oven at 200 degrees would seem to also be an options after treatment for gross contamination with an alcohol soak for example.
    Dry heat is not as effective as moist heat so a small pressure cooker would also be an option.

    I happen to have a UV-C sterilizing light also so could easily put together a UV sterilizing box with some mirrors or aluminum foil lining to bounce the UV around a bit to increase the incident exposure.

  85. Larry Ledwick says:

    Pressure cooker (seems like a workable solution to me)
    place an inch or so of water in the bottom.
    Add some aluminum foil balls to form a grate (if it does not have a steaming rack)
    place the masks to be sterilized on top and fire it up at maximum pressure and cook until the rocker stops moving.

  86. Larry Ledwick says:

    Oil demand in China has dropped 20% due to quarantine and lack of use as a result of the outbreak of 2019-nCoV virus.

  87. Larry Ledwick says:

    Other secondary effects and supply chain disruptions are also likely.
    Manos de Pietras
    2 minutes ago
    “In all, 80 percent of the U.S. supply of antibiotics are made in China”. Planning for Supply chain issues with 2019 nCoV should be a top priority.

  88. E.M.Smith says:

    A regular vegetable steamer basket works nicely in a pressure cooker…

    5 min at 15 psi ought to be fine as the fabric rapidly comes to full temperature. 240 F.

  89. Larry Ledwick says:

    First update just came out, given it updated several times yesterday before the number stabilized I will hold off for a bit before I screen cap it. (They have not tallied the new US case yet)

    Current confirmed cases = 16,798
    Deaths = 362
    Recovered = 472

  90. Gail Combs says:

    To answer Larry’s
    How to question. This is what I did to prevent getting poison ivy. (The stuff will put me in the hospital.)
    Rubber boots get hosed off outside or in this case walk through a Chorox & water pan to prevent tracking stuff inside. Swab down with Chorox solution
    Remove boots with boot jack.
    Wear two sets of gloves. the cotton outer set goes straight into the washing machine. The inner rubbermaid glove gets scrubbed with soap and hot water, then dried on a paper towel.
    Strip outer layer of clothes off using rubber gloves. Drop in washing machine. Wash on HOT with Chlorox.
    Wash gloves in hot water and soap.
    Strip off gloves.
    Remove silk long underwear & inner layer of socks. (They go into a separate laundry load.)

    You can limit the risk by shopping at odd hours if you have to shop.

  91. Larry Ledwick says:

    The size of the contact tracing is staggering, especially given that many highly probable cases have never even been treated or diagnosed as being 2019-nCoV.

    J Cole Knight
    2 minutes ago

    #coronavirus At present, 1,895,830 close contacts have been traced. Of the 1,055 medical observations released on the day, a total of 152,700 people are receiving medical observations. #CoronavirusUpdate #coronavirususa #WuhanVirus #coronavirus #2019nCoV

  92. Larry Ledwick says:

  93. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting post on twitter from Tom Inglesby Director, Johns Hopkins SPH Center for Health Security

  94. Larry Ledwick says:

    Here is the thread rollup so folks so inclined do not have to go to twitter to see the content.

  95. Compu Gator says:

    Central Florida may still be mostly blissfully ignorant of Wuhan Coronavirus, if readers can judge from today’s (Sunday) Orlando Sentinel front page: It presents only 1 Coronavirus story; it’s the least prominent of those above-the-fold, occupying 8 in. of the rightmost column, but only 3 in. of that above-the-fold. It has a Hong Kong dateline via the N.Y. Times. The article is continued for 27 more col.-in. on a page inside the front section, but it never mentions cases discovered in the U.S.A.!

    Better placement is given to other front-page stories:
    • “5 join donation boycott” (largest headline): corporations’ newly woke responses to the Sentinel‘s recent advocacy-polling [*] for its eventual expose about corporate contributions to state-authorized charter schools;
    • “Disney lobbies to cut tax on [video] streaming”: It’s a state tax, as on cable and telephone service;
    • “A good day for football”: Reminder of Super Bowl later today at Hard Rock Stadium, Metro Miami, by 1 photo of the statue of Dan Marino statue at the stadium.

    Fully below the fold:
    • “Death penalty cases in limbo after ruling reversal”. Florida Supreme-Ct. issue.

    It should come as no surprise that in the age of widespread air transportation, California, a state on the Pacific Rim, feels a much greater proximity to China, also on the Pacific Rim, than does Florida, a state uniquely near the Caribbean (for good or ill).

    So it seems quite likely that when I’m over my influenza symptoms, the things I’d want to buy will still be available. As were, e.g., the quarts of 91% isopropyl alcohol at Dollar General (I bought 2 for starters).

    Note *: Off-topic, but I’ve forgotten the newish term for advocacy disguised as polling, as performed decades ago by Greenpeace, and not until later (I think) adopted by U.S. political campaigns. Anyone recall that term?

  96. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting assertion here that they are detecting lots of fires in China from space sensors.
    (possible I know satellites can detect fires the size of barn fires) but will wait for second opinions from a more authoritative analysis about how unusual this is. Could also be routine crop burning or other seasonal activities.

  97. Larry Ledwick says:

    Anyone recall that term?

    Push polling, you create a poll with leading questions that plant seeds of ideas in the subjects mind.
    Also publishing the poll results as fact rather than a skewed poll tends to shift perceptions as people want to be with the “smart crowd”.

  98. Larry Ledwick says:

    They are now saying the US has 11 cases.

    BNO Newsroom
    ‏Verified account
    NEW: California reports 2 more cases of coronavirus, raising U.S. total to 11

  99. Larry Ledwick says:

    San Benito county CA

  100. E.M.Smith says:

    Oh Joy /sarc;

    Cases both north and south of me. I’m surrounded.

    Yeah, it’s only 3 cases (for now…) but with 3 showing, how many more are here but not visible? 6? 12? More?

  101. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yep I almost commented that they had you bracketed ;)

    Makes you wonder what is going on in China Town district of San Francisco ?

    If they have a couple or asymptomatic carriers it will turn into a huge mess in a week or two.
    Then when it gets into the homeless crowd that poops in the street, you are talking plague like development of infections in that cohort.

  102. philjourdan says:

    @Larry Ledwick says:
    2 February 2020 at 6:33 pm

    Age. The older you get the more you find things repeated for the younger generation whose parents were too busy trying to figure out pronouns to teach basic sense,

    It is part of the left’s attempt to break the family. Those with strong parental bonds who passed down knowledge are saying DUH. THose that follow the dictates of the snowflakes are saying “HUH”

  103. ossqss says:

    So,,,,,, time to do some baseline comparisons. How many people get the basic flu each year. Who does that impact worst and such. Is this any different than what we see there? If so, how and why?

    Globally, how many people died in 2019 from flu? Is that answer going to be surprising?

  104. Larry Ledwick says:

    The major update has come in as bits and pieces for the last couple hours, it is now noon in Wuhan China 9:00 pm MDT so I am going to capture this display for archive.

    They have made the update for the US at 11 cases to include the two new cases in Ca, but I am also seeing mention that New York may be about to announce a confirmed case.

    The slope of the case graph is continuing at its prior trend with no significant change in slope over the last few days.

    Current cases with this post are 17,370
    deaths 362
    recovered 486

    13968 cases last night at 23:48 pm
    17370 tonight at 21:00

    This is still a growth rate of about 24% per day (24.355% in 21.25 hours)
    If you correct for the time interval this is about 27.51% per 24 hours over this last increment.

  105. Larry Ledwick says:

    Slope graph is:

  106. E.M.Smith says:


    I think with an exponential of 24% / day compounding and early in the logistics curve for nCoV, there’s not much we can compare with about the flu, where most of the world already has some immunity / exposure.

  107. Larry Ledwick says:

    US map for tonight, will start to get interesting as the counts get higher, right now the dots are so small they are hard to see.

  108. Larry Ledwick says:

    It is a completely apples to water melon comparison to compare seasonal flu which affects 1/4 of the planet each year at a fatality rate of about 0.01% with a brand new infectious agent in only the first few weeks of its spread where almost the entire plant is susceptible (ie no immunity because it is new) exponential growth which has just started, and a demonstrated lethality of around 2% (ie 20x more lethal per case than seasonal influenza)

    Give it a few months and see what he numbers look like, then see what happens as it moves into the southern hemisphere as their winter season starts during our summer.

  109. Larry Ledwick says:

    Surface disinfectant reference for 2019-nCoV

    Click to access 2019nCoV-Surface-Disinfection-Methods.pdf

  110. E.M.Smith says:

    Watching an Asian guy reporting from both official and unofficial sources.

    He says “friends” in Cambodia say they have cases, but the government is not reporting them… and if this continues it will be the next Wuhan. I hope he is wrong…

    Also says in China, of 100 going to hospital, 80 will have pneumonia symptoms. Of them, 5 will be tested, the rest will be sent home due to no kits or beds.

    Estimates 10x to 20x multiplier needed for government figure uplift.

  111. Larry Ledwick says:

    Seen some mentions of this if true this could be the real hidden disaster as they try to clear hospital beds.

    Niyi Aguaze
    4 minutes ago

    There are reports of 2019-nCoV having post-symptomatic viral loads in the patients that recover from the virus. The viral load consists of ten by the eighth pathogens of 2019-nCoV (100,000,000 pathogens). Sending the recovered home might result in spreading it to others.

  112. E.M.Smith says:

    Same guy. Claims Thailand has a drug cocktail with 48 hour big improvement..

    Here’s the video:

    I find it interesting that he normally does crypto mining and I’m more climate follies, but when a crisis pops up, it is all hands on deck… no matter your usual topics.

  113. Compu Gator says:

    E.M.Smith [said] 2 February 2020 at 5:26 pm [GMT]:
    I think it may have been [….] working in a couple of hospitals [….]

    E.M.Smith [said] 2 February 2020 at 11:22 pm [GMT]:
    Were I making a prefab hospital, I’d have [….] all equipment in self contained carts. Just roll in a bed and equipment rack and plug in.

    In the light of your earlier statement, I’m concerned that I’m missing your point, so I’ve edited away most of the “perfectly good words” that I’d drafted for posting. Aren’t at least the newer permanent hospital buildings in the U.S.A. already equipped on the principle that you recommended: mobile furnishings?

  114. Ossqss says:

    So we have 350 out of 362 deaths in Hubei out of 17k confirmed cases globally. Why?

  115. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like the military bases they plan to use to quarnine 2019-nCoV cases include Colorado and California and Texas.

    (yes they are trying to surround you EM)
    The bases selected were: Travis Air Force Base in Solano County, Calif.; Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego County, Calif.; Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, Texas; and the 168th Regiment Regional Training Institute at Fort Carson in Colorado Springs, Colo.

  116. E.M.Smith says:

    @Compu Gator:

    Yes, alot of our gear is, other than the gas / power / coms manifold on the wall and curtain on rails.

    I was not drawing a contrast. I was only saying “if assigned the task, this is what I would do”.

    So modular boxes and all medical on a “assemble elsewhere and roll in” basis. Plumbing in a bath cubby, all other (power, oxygen, vacuum, etc.) on one wall manifold. Everything else mobile on wheels. That way you can be building manifolds and harnesses in an offsite location, beds and other equipmenf kits being built in units and delivered as made to a loading dock and put in the room as the patients arrive. All your plumbed “stuff” in one wall / cable carrier so most of the structure is just flat simple wall / floor / ceiling. So you make your ward of boxes, plumb the standard manifolds, hook up the plumbing, and on to the next one. Behind you, a patient in bed and medical cart roll in and plug up.

    Differences from our hospitals:

    No TV on the wall. No built in phone (plug available maybe). No curtain on cieling (portable folder at first). No wall plugs around the perimeter. No hand station near the entry door (entry sink… use a portable saintation cart) No visitor chairs. (Add later if needed). No built in cabinets (not like an examination room with cabinets and counter top, more like emergency room ward)


  117. Larry Ledwick says:

    If I understand your question it is perfectly logical. The first fatality attributed to the virus was only on Jan 9 2020 so about 3 weeks ago. The lag between when a case becomes symptomatic and death occurs can be 8 – 12 days or so. The exponential growth is so rapid that most of those confirmed cases have not been sick long enough to complete the process of overwhelming their system.

    The death numbers will lag behind cases due to that time lag. Later in the year it will be much less apparent but for all practical purposes everyone in the world who is infected lives in China and they have only been sick a week or two.

    Trust me the numbers will climb (never mind all the deaths attributed to something else for political purposes.)

  118. Larry Ledwick says:

    The Johns Hopkins tracker application is a very unhappy camper right now and is not loading.

    May have to give it a rest for a while. Would not surprise me if they were making some changes to increase capacity, I suspect they are getting pounded by visitors world wide constantly reloading the app.

  119. Larry Ledwick says:

    They have isolated the 2019-nCoV virus off of an environmental surface (door knob).

    It looks like surface hand transfer is an issue people will need to take seriously, and this also raises interesting questions for things like taxi cabs, uber lyft operators, airplanes, products in stores that get handled, high touch surface like elevator control buttons, pull handles and push plates on commercial building doors etc.

    @Dystopia – #HongKong is NOT China

    6 seconds ago
    #BREAKING ⚠️
    The deadly #coronavirus is FIRST found in an “external environment”
    — DOOR HANDLE of one confirmed #ChinaPneumonia patient’s home in Guangzhou, #China.

  120. David A says:

    Below is a link to an interesting article diving deeper into the nature of the Wuton lab and their specific work with Coronavirus and bats and the characteristics of the new virus.


  121. E.M.Smith says:

    One case is an anecdotal “cure”; but it provides a regimin to test:

    Duque explained that it was possible that the Chinese woman who recovered from the disease was among the 20 percent mild cases.

    “There is no hard science to prove this anecdote or theory. It’s a theory,” he added. “There is no science to prove it as of this point.”

    Thailand’s health ministry on Sunday reported that the Chinese woman infected with nCoV showed improvement in her medical condition after being treated with a cocktail of anti-virals.

    Specifically, the doctors combined the oseltamivir, an anti-flu drug, with lopinavir and ritonavir, which are anti-virals used to treat HIV. The patient reportedly tested negative for the virus 48 hours after receiving the treatment.

  122. Larry Ledwick says:

    Given recent history you also have to consider that someone with his hands in the pockets of the producers of those drugs is pushing the drug cocktail for purely financial / marketing reasons.

    Hate to say it but Pharmaceutical companies do not have the best reputations regarding having the best interests of the community in mind. Just the rumor this might be true could sell billions of dollars of their drugs.

  123. Larry Ledwick says:

    The Johns Hopkins tracker application is still only partially functional, the map overlays do not display as well as some of the windows. They may have clobbered a data base or something similar for the outage to last this long.

  124. Larry Ledwick says:

    Okay looks like Johns Hopkins did something that broke their tracker on Dissenter browser still works properly on Fire Fox, chrome and Brave

  125. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    I had a similar “failure to load” issue with the wuflu site last night, but this morning it loaded quickly. I think it is just a massive load growth issue.

    Per pharma pushers:

    Yes, it is a risk, but given this was not easy to discover, in my opinion it is likely legit. From an Asian Crypto blogger to a Thai health ministry posting is not exactly front page. I’d be more sceptical if it were coming from the West and endorsed by some guys with new cars…. it also ought to be quick to test. Pick 2 dozen cases and treat them. 48 hours later you ought to have either 5 cases that naturally were mild, or 20+ dramatically better. Then that quashes any fraud, or promotes a working treatment.

  126. S.T. Taylor says:

    @ Larry –

    At current trend there will be over 250k cases in China by next week.

    If this continues – I have to think China will go back to telling people to stay at home and the supply chain from China will take a huge hit. We are putting into effect contingency plans if China goes into an extended lock down – will cost us capital and increase material costs…

    Also – the reporting has become so political that I don’t believe that the data is accurate at all. China is mad at the US for restricting travel and the WHO still says that travel is still okay. There is no legitimate reason to make those statements other than political as travel from the US and Europe to SE Asia and China brings money and China does not want to be seen as the cause of this. Can’t wait to see their spin down the road on this.

    This is the kind of crap that will cause something like the Coronovirus to explode – ignorance and politics.

  127. Larry Ledwick says:

    Reminder this is the disease progression history time line of the first US patient.
    Marc Gozlan
    3 minutes ago
    First case of #2019nCoV infection in the US. Symptoms & Maximum Body Temperatures According to Day of Illness and Day of Hospitalization. The stool & both respiratory specimens later tested positive by rRT-PCR, whereas the serum remained negative

  128. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like 3 potential cases being checked in New York

    5 minutes ago

    3 potential cases of #2019nCoV #coronavirus being tested now in NYC: at NYP-Queens, Flushing & Bellevue. See NYSNA’s #HealthAndSafety update for the latest info for #healthcare workers:
    The CDC recommends that healthcare workers coming within 6 ft. of patients who may have 2019-nCoV take the following precautions:

    1. Immediately place a surgical mask on the patient and remove to an isolation room
    2. Wear PPE including:
          face protection (either face shield for goggles)
          N95 respirator
    3. Wash hands with warm water and soap frequently
    4. Avoid touching mouth, nose and eyes with unwashed hands

  129. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ahhhh Pakistan to the rescue. Pakistan resumes flights to China.

  130. S.T. Taylor says:

    If you are not a fan of China Uncensored – you should be.

    I have followed him for years since I travel to China so often.

    He has some great reporting about all things China and now the Coronavirus.

  131. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well this is very interesting!
    Some folks have speculated if this virus might be an escaped bio weapon or even an experimental vaccine virus.

  132. Larry Ledwick says:

    By the way on previous discussion of the proper name of the receptor for the virus, the answer is in David A’s link above.

    David A says:
    3 February 2020 at 11:03 am

    “Angiotensin-I converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) is the receptor for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus (SARS-CoV).

    Looks like an unfortunate coincidence that alveolar epithelial cells have a very similar short hand name.of AECII.

  133. Larry Ledwick says:

    Chinese military PLA take over distribution of medical supplies

  134. Larry Ledwick says:

    Best guess on incubation period is 6.4 days.

    6.4 (5.6 – 7.7, 95% CI) days, ranging from 2.1 to 11.1 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentile).

  135. M Simon says:

    Gail Combs says:
    3 February 2020 at 12:51 am

    i used to have trouble with poison ivy. And then one day I came across some and rubbed it all over my hands. In front of my friends. No problem.

  136. David A says:

    I really recommend reading the article I linked to earlier as IMV, it greatly elevates the chance that this was an accidental leak… Excerpts followed by link below…

    : background of activity conducted at Wuhan Institute of Virology, as well as look into the specifics of the new coronavirus in comparison with viruses already isolated, identified, stored, studied, and/or engineered at the Institute’s Biosafety Laboratory, in an effort to glean the truth.

    However, Prof. Zhengli and her co-authors published a study early last year on March 2, 2019 entitled Bat Coronaviruses in China which explicitly warned,

    “During the past two decades, three zoonotic coronaviruses have been identified as the cause of large-scale disease outbreaks⁻Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and Swine Acute Diarrhea Syndrome (SADS). SARS and MERS emerged in 2003 and 2012, respectively, and caused a worldwide pandemic that claimed thousands of human lives, while SADS struck the swine industry in 2017. They have common characteristics, such as they are all highly pathogenic to humans or livestock, their agents originated from bats, and two of them originated in China. Thus, it is highly likely that future SARS- or MERS-like coronavirus outbreaks will originate from bats, and there is an increased probability that this will occur in China. Therefore, the investigation of bat coronaviruses becomes an urgent issue for the detection of early warning signs, which in turn minimizes the impact of such future outbreaks in China” (emphasis added).

    It’s just as Prof. Zhengli predicated a decade ago: “…the fact that an ACE2 protein from a megabat, the fruit bat Rousettus leschenaultia, can function as a receptor for SARS-CoV would suggest that the host range for SARS-CoV or SL-CoVs may be much wider than originally thought.”

    And ahead of the lab’s second opening in January 2018, biosafety experts and scientists from the United States expressly warned “that a SARS-like virus could escape,” much in the same way the SARS virus had escaped multiple times from a lab in Beijing.”

    Much more in the link, detailed and informative…

  137. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    3 February 2020 at 1:58 pm

    Healthcare workers at hospitals? What about people going in for “routine” medical work? I’m going in today for cardio tests. What should I be doing. And it is flu season. There are restrictions on who can come to the hospitals. No visitors under 12. Two visitors per patient max. etc. Lots of wipes handed out.

  138. M Simon says:

    David A says:
    3 February 2020 at 6:09 pm

    When referring to a comment do it this way:

    David A says:
    3 February 2020 at 6:09 pm

    The “links” to comments often send you to who knows where in a thread.

  139. M Simon says:

    David A says:
    3 February 2020 at 6:09 pm

    Your post was:

    David A says:
    3 February 2020 at 11:03 am

    The article you linked was

  140. M Simon says:

    And the bare link is:

  141. M Simon says:

    The times will not be correct because the site displays the times in your zone not its. – the last two digits will narrow things down.

    [Reply: I run the blog on GMT and I think it always displays GMT time stamps. At least in California it displays as GMT. -EMS ]

  142. M Simon says:

    S.T. Taylor says:
    3 February 2020 at 1:46 pm

    They have exchanged Truth for Harmony. In the end they will have neither.

    The Communists may be losing the Mandate of Heaven. It scares them to deatht.

  143. M Simon says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    3 February 2020 at 5:40 am

    There is only one problem with plumbing.

    Joints leak. And if the modules are single person there will be lots of field joints. There will be lots of field joints in any case. American field QC has its problems. My guess is that the Chinese border on criminal – from anecdotes.

  144. Compu Gator says:

    And nowww, a digression back to building-construction:

    E.M.Smith [said] 3 February 2020 at 5:40 am [GMT]:

    It was useful for you to have elaborated as you did.

    As for me, various of my family members have recently had the, um, mixed, opportunities to learn about modern hospitals, by spending time at Central Florida’s premier trauma facility, either as patients or as rotating de facto power-of-attorney visitors. What you describe as “our hospitals” is consistent with what that institution has already done in their shiny newish tower (i.e., Nawth). I’ve learned about facilities for cardiology and pulmonology patients, altho’ I had no access to the likely more interesting ICUs or labs.

    Could there be any of your readers who would expect patients in mainland China to get wide-screen cable t.v. and conveniences for medical staff or visitors? Despite the economic benefits it’s received from globalization, mainland “Red” China remains a communist dictatorship.

    I once lived in an apartment where the shower-tub combination seemed to be assembled from prefab fiberglass (1 tub and 3 partial-wall sections), altho’ other fixtures were the conventional separate porcelain structures. Now, 1/2 century later, with continual developments in materials-molding for the interiors of emergency vehicles, custom “coaches” (incl. RVs), and tornado-attracting “mobile homes”, I’d expect that technology to be a major contributor to Chinese hospital construction. I suppose that your concept of a “bath cubby” is a 1-or-2-piece molding, whose floor section includes a (built-in) toilet. When building for the Chinese crisis, in which diarrhea is an issue (but apparently only a short-term feature), designs would probably be required to accomodate hosing down the entire room with disinfectant; I imagine a molded prefab floor with appropriate drains. That idea assumes use of a material that’s resistant enough to abrasion by wheels and by repeated cleaning that it wouldn’t become disposable construction. Altho’ maybe designs using cheap moldings intended to be replaced periodically would be practical in their circumstances.

    Ah, well. Just some speculation from someone with an engineering mind-set but no experience with building construction nor medical training beyond 1st aid. I now yield to your normal programming.

  145. David A says:

    Simon, every time I copy a link to any specific comment, touching the date and time, hitting copy, then pasting the link; the link takes me directly to the comment where the link was posted and had a link to the article.

    For instance this
    takes me directly to my initial link where the article was. It does not take me ” who knows where in the thread?

    At any rate I hope you found the link informative, as it does dive deeper then anything I have read on what the Wuhan lab was working on, cogent to the new virus.

  146. S.T. Taylor says:

    Latest from China Uncensored

    China is arresting doctors

  147. David A says:

    I would have copied the direct link if I was not lazy. Actually I have a flu bug, not fun. ( Since last Monday) Five days before that I worked at a bio- tech show in San Diego. ( Many Asians)
    Yikes. I wonder how many from China were there.

  148. David A says:

    A few more excerpts from the article discussed…

    they also ignored Zhengli’s incredibly pertinent report published ten years ago in July, 2010, Identification of key amino acid residues required for horseshoe bat angiotensin-I converting enzyme 2 to function as a receptor for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus. The study’s abstract can’t be clearer on the immunological risks associated with protein ACE2, with its obvious liability for usurpation by viral agents with a little modified genome sequencing:””

    And here it sounds like the Wuhon Lab created this —

    Here, we demonstrate that a 3 aa change from SHE (aa 40–42) to FYQ was sufficient to convert the bat ACE2 into a fully functional receptor for SARS-CoV. We further demonstrate that an ACE2 molecule from a fruit bat, which contains the FYQ motif, was able to support SARS-CoV infection, indicating a potentially much wider host range for SARS-CoV-related viruses among different bat populations.”

    So it sounds like they created or
    ( “demonstrated”) in the lab exactly what this new virus does.

    The South China Morning Post article cited above summarizes two primary known facts about the new coronavirus: first, that a “virus found in fruit bats is [the] common ancestor of the two strains [Coronavirus 2019-nCoV and SARS],” and that this “new strain has [an] unusually high ability to bind to a human protein…


    ” And the new study on Coronavirus 2019-nCoV by the joint research team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the People’s Liberation Army, and Institut Pasteur of Shanghai indeed found that, like SARS, the virus targeted the ACE2 protein. It’s just as Prof. Zhengli predicated a decade ago: “

    Yes it could have happened naturally, but it sounds possible that in their concern for such a virus to likely originate in China, they may have a created it in the laboratory to study it, and oops, it got out.

    The claims about China being surprised by this are done, that dog cannot hunt.
    This is exactly what was feared almost a decade ago. This may well be the biggest industrial accident ever. China was the world’s sole expert in exactly this scenario.

    The fact that the Wuhon Lab is only 8.5 miles from the market, and Apparently only trees are visible at the location 20 miles away adds more suspicion.

    Too many coincidences IMV. No conclusions, but leaning towards an all time screw up. Convince me otherwise, it is how I learn.

  149. M Simon says:

    M Simon says:
    3 February 2020 at 6:13 pm

    I said that hospitals restricted visitors to age 12 or over. That was last week.

    This week it is age 18 or over.

  150. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ref building construction, yes that sort of external assembly of modules is the only way you can build structures like that so quickly.

    There is a time lapse video of them setting prefabricated truss like ring structures that defined the shape of the structure, I am sure that they then simply bolted or welded on external wall and roof panels.

    The wuhan hospital was obviously a pre-engineered structure.

  151. David A says:

    Cue to 33.40 in the video, one of Jeremy Brett’s finest Sherlock Holmes The dying detective. Hope this link works…

  152. David A says:

    M Simon
    Wow, 18 or older. Another factor in the ever wider error bars from China.

  153. cdquarles says:

    As for me, the current influenza is going around here. Just the usual precautions are being taken. Last week, I had work done on my left eye. Today, it was the right eye. So far, so good.

    Though it increases the costs, recently built US hospitals are mostly private or semi-private rooms that share toilets. The old open wards are mostly gone. ERs may have them, but with solid walls between them and curtains on the outside. Med carts stay in the halls. Meds are typically dispensed in blister packs; though a central pharmacy may be used to fill carts. There is generally a lot less handling this way. Again, those sterilized packs are not cheap. Lots of wastage, too, with respect to eye drops. Small sealed vials where a patient gets one or two drops from each vial. Single use only. I am not sure how cost effective it would be to make those vials smaller. A relatively large vial with little liquid in it will probably have other kinds of problems.

  154. M Simon says:

    S.T. Taylor says:
    3 February 2020 at 1:46 pm

    Plastics News says the supply chain is already taking a hit with force majure being announced by several companies with more sure to follow.

  155. M Simon says:

    David A says:
    3 February 2020 at 10:47 pm

    Last week’s signs were rather crude – turned out in some cheap “print shop’ in bold print and that was it. No color B&W no graphics. Just the print. The 18 and over poster was professionally produced with color printing and graphics. And in Spanish. Obviously something is getting organized.

  156. Larry Ledwick says:

    Current numbers we will probably break 20 K later today

    BNO Newsroom
    ‏Verified account
    59 minutes ago
    Coronavirus update:
    – 19,843 confirmed cases worldwide
    – 21,558 suspected cases
    – 426 fatalities
    – 2,654 in serious/critical condition
    – 576 recovered in China
    – Vast majority of cases in China
    – 24 countries reporting cases

    BNO Newsroom
    ‏Verified account
    32 minutes ago
    Because we keep getting asked about this, the daily updates from China are at:
    – Hubei province: 6 a.m. (5 p.m. ET)
    – National: 8 a.m. (7 p.m. ET)

  157. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like the update is definitely going to be over 20K

    Jared C Harris 松飞鹰

    2 minutes ago
    Feb. 4 #2019nCoV 🦠 update. China’s #CoronaVirus totals, per CCP.

    Confirmed: 20,471 (+3,266)
    Suspected: 23,214 (+1,656)
    Recovered: 632 (+157)
    Deaths: 425 (+64)


  158. David A says:

    E.M mentioned something about children not being as suceptible. Anyone have information on that.

  159. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yes the mortality charts we posted much earlier in the thread showed no mortality below age 15 and very low mortality until you got up to 40-50 years old then turns up for those over 60 or so.

    It will take me a minute to find it though.

  160. Larry Ledwick says:

    Some of the age breakdown is in this paper. I have seen a chart of it but right now cannot find it.

  161. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting read on the limitations of statistics for things like pandemic death totals as the disease spreads. By the very nature of these numbers and where they come from they will always be low ball values of the true values. You cannot even call them estimates.

  162. Larry Ledwick says:

    Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study

  163. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A:

    It is also the case that there was a female blogger who made it a fad to eat bats. Huge numbers were slaughtered and “prepared”. HUGE opportunities in the live capture, feces exposure, slaughter, and wet meat handling in the preparation; for the virus to jump to people all on its own.

    There’s some evidence AIDS came from eating bats too. By implication, recombination in them is likely too.

    So “proof by proximity” or “proof by coincidence” is just not possible.

    By definition, the lab is in the same place as the bats and bat dieases it studies. You can not separate the two via any logic nor chain of custody.

    Until and unless their is an absolutely artificial genetic marker, all you can do us say “hmmmm.” Even if there were one, it could still be a lab guy picked it up at work from something benign, and got a wild corona virus from butchering a bat at home for dinner, and the recombination happened in him (or he gave the benign bit to a cab driver who prepared bats at home…)

    So you can drive yourself nuts fixating on the possibles, or just accept you can never know and move on.


    Kids were historically banned from hospitals here. They are walking germ factories. ALL visitors suck down some staff time. When pressed, vistors get reduced (I’ve seen “one only no kids” here).

    It is also possible they figured out “kid with no symptoms” can be spreading virus in the common areas. But I doubt it. Hospitals just don’t like grabby germ bags running aroud…

  164. Larry Ledwick says:

    The hidden victims of a disaster is always the pets and live stock.

    China has agreed to allow US health experts into the country to assess the situation.

  165. Larry Ledwick says:

    Africa and 2019-nCoV

    Chinese trying to disinfect money.

  166. E.M.Smith says:

    We know China has folks all over Africa.
    We know China has folks at both ends of the Panama Canal and elsewhere in S.A.

    It really bothers me they have zero cases reported.

    So were Chinese rushing to North America and Europe, but avoiding return to S.A. & Africa?

    Perhaps choosing based on best medical care prospects?

    I hope so, as the alternative is a blind exponential growth underway in the 3rd world.

  167. Larry Ledwick says:

    You know as I have been watching this pandemic develop I keep coming back to the practical problems of keeping businesses open and the economy functioning as the requirements of large scale infection control become dominant in people’s mind.

    For some high tech companies it will be relatively painless for a segment of their staff which can work from home all or most of the time. There are those how ever that need to physically be present.

    Folks like desk top support who have to have face to face contact with users and handle their computer equipment.
    Those who deal with high touch items in the office.
    Phones (receivers and touch pads)
    Copiers (keypad, loading more paper etc.)
    Reception staff that have to be present at the front desk to greet visitors.
    All employees as they enter and leave buildings (high touch surfaces like door push plates and pull handles, key pads for access control, facilities who have to restock things like coffee machines, or soda pop refrigerators, pickup and break down shipments of office supplies.
    Sales staff that have to meet and greet clients, on site or at the customers business location.
    Air travel, cab travel, Lyft or Uber (how sure are you that they take measures to keep their rides safe for passengers?
    staying in strange hotels, eating in unfamiliar restaurants or cafes etc.

    Warehouse staff that have to pick and load materials, shipping and receiveing that have to handle all sorts of items or packages with little knowledge of their travel / exposure history.

    At what point do you enforce extra exposure control measures on the staff.
    Do you wait until they demand it?
    Do you quietly do stuff off hours like having janitorial staff do extra surface disinfection?
    Do you send out a notice to workers to remind them of good practice and let them take care of their own work stations and exposures?

    It is a interesting problem for sure I presume lots of folks will be talking about some of these issues over the coming months and weeks as the scope of the problem defines itself.

  168. David A says:

    Thanks for the information all. Great to come to a site where discussion is the rule.

    E.M. in the Jeremy Brett S.H. I linked above, Sherlock is lecturing Watson, “:you can’t convict a man for coincidence”.
    He knows who is guilty but has no proof, so in the scene when he berates the man, he also says he will destroy his reputation.
    Holmes goal was to goad the man into attempting to murder him, and elicit a bragging confession on Holmes faux death bed; overheard by the local law enforcement.

    I am certainly not ” driving my self nuts” to figure out the source, and I was, perhaps still am ” leaning” towards an accidental release. I think an expert doing a granular breakdown of the four short sequences, their possible sources, and the known history of the lab could arrive at a much greater confidence interval. As mentioned, China has a history of shortcuts interwoven into their culture, and of mistakes in this specific field. In addition they are being very disengenuis by saying they are surprised by this mutation, when they had studied it and demonstrated it years ago.
    Knowing how it happened is very cogent to prevention in the future.

  169. Larry Ledwick says:

    Keep in mind that this source (Epoch times) is a Free Chinese opponent of the mainland Communist China regime. (

    That said, I have little reason to doubt the content of the following article.

  170. ossqss says:

    Much of our manufacturing comes from China and other areas affected/effected. The business impact will be significant in a direct and indirect way moving forward.

    Am I gonna open a package, pallet, 40′ shipping container (no matter it’s content) from China the same way always did?

    Short answer, no.

  171. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    We have sushi once a week. Take out from a counter in a local grocer, made on the spot.

    One of our decision moments will be when to stop going to that counter, mingle, and pick up food just assembled in the open air… then go through the checkout line…

    At this point, likely 2 weeks out.

    Buy new tires and wait in the lobby? Maybe next year.

    Go to the movies? Nope.

    Visit the Social Security office? It can wait.


    I expect business will ramp down and contacts thin step by step… And cleaning will go up while protective gear use increases.

    Per the bioweapon idea:

    Couple of problems.

    1) if you want a MERS sample, you don’t need to infiltrate a Canadian lab. Just go to the middle east and swab some camels. They are a biological reservoir of it.

    2) They are not so dumb as to make a weapon that preferentially damages the lungs of Asian Men.

  172. Larry Ledwick says:

    Nightly update is done.
    At 21:58 MDT 20,606 confirmed cases, 427 dead, 657 recovered.

  173. p.g.sharrow says:

    @Larry; It may be that several things will conspire to solve China’s problem of needing to compete with America for living space. This accidental self inflicted wound of epidemic may be their undoing. It may even had help from “insiders”., If I were designing a Bio-weapon to damage China, this thing would be made to order and was unleashed in the center of China.
    For the civilized world this will be an inconvenience and not a Grand Pandemic.
    A major economic restructuring will no doubt take place as things readjust due to the damage to the Chinese Communist Government system caused.
    Kind of poetic really, The Soviet Union planed to beat America through Economic and Atomic Power and is was those things that destroyed it. Chinese Communist Party planned on Economic power and Bio-weapons as their tools and those will bring them down…pg

  174. Larry Ledwick says:

    2) They are not so dumb as to make a weapon that preferentially damages the lungs of Asian Men.

    who have the Chinese locked up in concentration camps and been using for organ harvests?
    What group in the list I posted earlier have the lowest count of ACE2 cells?×900

    Maybe it wasn’t the Chinese that made the virus? What if they were the target?

  175. H.R. says:

    That last map you posted, Larry, gives new meaning to the term “Red China”.

    Give it a few more days and all of China will be red on that map.

  176. M Simon says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    4 February 2020 at 1:18 am

    Yes. My point was not – “the rules” it was “print run”. They are making enough signs that it is worthwhile hiring a graphic artist for layout. I’ll take a better look on my next visit. Wed.

  177. E.M.Smith says:

    Were I willing to embrace malice over stupidity, I’d go with the M.E. using their genetic advantage vs ACE2. And yes, I’d noticed their numbers. Made me wonder if long duration exposure to camels / MERS had shifted their mix…

  178. E.M.Smith says:

    Hong Kong has their first death. Man, 39.

    The paper from India claiming unusual genetics so manufactured has been withdrawn. Not a peer review journal and post pub found issues…

  179. Larry Ledwick says:

    That does still leave the notion that the Chinese were trying to make a prototype vaccination strain for future customization that would be especially effective to Asians and it got away from them.

    As always, this is just speculation at this point, I am sure the TLA’s are way ahead of us in the twitter sphere on this sort of thing.

  180. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    4 February 2020 at 5:16 am

    Maybe it wasn’t the Chinese that made the virus? What if they were the target?

    Very perceptive.

    The theft from Canada gets more interesting. Suppose what China unleashed was a Canadian made virus. Spy vs. spy. They knew China was sloppy. Let them steal the good stuff to try and counter it.

    Then the Western agencies are not guilty of releasing bio-warfare and China can’t talk or it will lose face.

    True? Who knows. But as a spy novel I like it.

  181. Larry Ledwick says:

    There have been some recent video clips on twitter showing Chinese police walking with automatic weapons in the streets and some others of people being forcibly arrested to be quarantined (at least that was the alleged cause of the arrest).

    A common situation in disasters is that people are mostly cooperative in the first couple days but from about day 4 on they start getting cranky and short tempered due to loss of sleep, frustration, angle and a feeling of being out of control.

    China is now entering that window where things have a tendency to go sideways for all sorts of reasons.

  182. M Simon says:

    Just for fun. Jan 26 = 5 cases 3 Feb = 11 cases. 9 days.


    X = 1.0916 or a growth of 9.16% a day. Except we are way too early in the American curve to say anything useful. You need about 30 samples to get the statistical fluctuations to a reasonable level.

  183. E.M.Smith says:

    New coronavirus may spread through digestive system: Experts
    The new strain of coronavirus in China may be spreading from person to person via the digestive system, Xinhua news agency reported, citing medical experts.

    Researchers from the Renminbi Hospital of Wuhan University and the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Science reported their findings after studying patient stool samples and rectal swabs, the news agency said.

    Xinhua reported that many coronavirus patients suffered only from diarrhoea instead of from classic viral symptoms like fever.

    Well that’s gonna be a problem… not surpring, though, as corona viruses in animals are usually digestive not respiratory…

    But if every case of trots needs testing too…

    No wonder the hospital went up so quick. It’s a MASH like system. Also explains the design elements.

    Wuhan field hospital delivered to medics
    A 1,000-bed field hospital under construction by the military in Wuhan has been completed and handed to health workers, according to the China Daily.

    The Huoshenshan Hospital will be staffed by 1,400 military medics.

    Prefab military hospital so set up for CBW and handling both your own and opponent casualties.

  184. Larry Ledwick says:

    On the topic of who did what to whom you need to look at who are China’s traditional enemys. India of course has been a natural enemy of China for a 1000 years or so, same with Vietnam. The list goes on and a good novelist like Tom Clancy could come up with a dozen scenarios ranging from some crazy green freak taking direct action against the worlds largest polluter to internal factions inside china trying to take down the ruling party. To a disgruntled employee in the P4 lab striking back at the government for some personal motive – the alternatives are literally endless. Some intelligence agency – could even be north Korea or someone from North Korea.

    I am far more likely to believe a very unfortunate accident that intentional action but history tells us no one thought the world would go to war over the Arch Duke’s assassination either, strange twists happen in the real world for all sorts of obscure reasons.

  185. Larry Ledwick says:

    Except we are way too early in the American curve to say anything useful. You need about 30 samples to get the statistical fluctuations to a reasonable level.

    We also need a string of data that is several times longer than the longest incubation time plus the typical time to death once symptoms appear so maybe 4 – 6 weeks for that to happen.

    Mean incubation duration is 6.4 days but it can range from 2 – 14 days
    time in hospital prior to death 10+ days I think for most of them.

  186. Simon Derricutt says:

    Since it looks like hand-sanitiser is in short supply, maybe it’s worth pointing out that Eau de Cologne (at least the halfway decent ones) is around 70% alcohol with the citrus oils (oil of Bergamot) also being a disinfectant. If you can’t get the rubbing alcohol, then the Eau de Cologne would be safer than methylated spirits and smell somewhat nicer. Might be useful to add a bit of Copper salt if you’re using it for hand-sanitiser (I haven’t tried to see how much dissolves in EdC), given that Copper kills the virus pretty quickly. CuSO4 should be available in the builder’s merchants as Blue Crystal for wood-preservation.

    In my last house in the UK I installed brass door-handles throughout to reduce the problem of disease transmission (lots of kids around), but haven’t found a supply in France yet. They’re nearly all Zinc alloy, stainless or plastic. So far, it hasn’t been urgent to change the handles, since normally no kids around here.

    Thanks again to Larry for all the information. It looks like China has under-reported infection rates and possibly death-rates too, even though the graphs seem to follow the right trajectories. It does however look like the authorities in China are really scared of the problem, and it’s got away from them anyway. Since the virus is transmissible before the patient shows any signs of infection, I expect we’ll be seeing infections in a lot of countries pretty soon.

    M. Simon – the links to a specific comment do indeed find the specific comment, but since the browser then fills in all the Twitter links and doesn’t know how big they will be until they are loaded, the place you end up is some way above the comment you’ve linked to. If you find a string that hasn’t any Twitter (or similar undefined-size) links in it, then your browser will show the correct linked comment with one click. For others, if you wait until all the Twitter and other stuff has been loaded, and then click on the link a second time, you’ll get to the correct place in the string because the browser now knows how big all the Twitter links are (doesn’t work if you do a refresh, because again the outside links are indeterminate size).

  187. Larry Ledwick says:

    Thanks again to Larry for all the information. It looks like China has under-reported infection rates and possibly death-rates too, even though the graphs seem to follow the right trajectories. It does however look like the authorities in China are really scared of the problem, and it’s got away from them anyway.

    No problem and thanks for catching my goof on the calcs the other day, bit of information over load on this end too.

    Numbers have not changed much over night 20,679 on the cases “reported” but as you note I am pretty sure the Chinese are intentionally under reporting – at least procedurally. They are only testing a handful of people who show up for medical attention, and they do not attribute a case to 2019-nCoV unless the patient has tested positive (sometimes this takes several tests) other cases just get sent home with symptomatic relief. Lots of reports of people that went to the hospital several times never tested and admitted then died at home, and the doctors ordered immediate cremation, with death certificate stating cause of death as pneumonia or flu etc, and not the new virus. Not sure if this is just typical bureaucratic short sighted thinking or an intentional plan to under report the situation to keep the people from panicking.

    A panicked exit from the locked down cities would be the worst possible outcome so they may have no choice but try to keep things under control until they complete containment efforts or gradually tighten the screws so the people are terrified of the consequences of leaving the cities and running into armed patrols.

  188. Larry Ledwick says:

    Reposting the charts of symptomatic development from lancet

    On this second image note that onset of symptoms (depending on how you define that) is 4+ days for most patients, but some of the early symptoms could be benign enough that the patient could easily ignore them or think they are not significant for a day or so. That might explain the debate about asymptomatic carriers. Are the truely asymptomatic or just that the symptoms are so mild that their work associates do not see them as obviously sick, but the patient is trying to keep a stiff upper lip and wrap some things up before they call in sick. Or simply is afraid to admit to themselves that they are coming down with something.

    How many of us put off calling in sick went to work and around mid day started to get that persistent tickle in the throat and the runny nose and said to yourself “I should have stayed home today”.

  189. Larry Ledwick says:

    Slowly other countries are getting added to the list and China clearly is anticipating accelerating case loads. This series of pictures in the link below is so reminiscent of pictures of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic it is scary.

    Corona virus (2019-nCoV-) watcher
    6 hours ago
    BREAKING: first confirmed case of #coronavirus in Belgium.

    (can be slow to load right now)

    NEW: Singapore reports 6 new cases of #coranavirus. Singapore total: 24
    BREAKING: Thailand reports 6 new cases of #coronavirus, raising the total of Thailand to 25 cases.
    JUST IN: Vietnam reported a new case of #coronavirus, raising the total in Vietnam to 10 cases.
    BREAKING: Australia reports one new case of #coronavirus. Australian total: 13
    BREAKING: Two new cases of #coronavirus in Malaysia. Total Malaysia: 10

    Clearly the symptomatic cycle is getting old enough that the smattering of earlier reports are starting to turn into a steady drum beat of upgraded numbers all over the world. I expect to see first reported cases showing up in Africa and South America / Latin America in the next few days.They may already have cases but have just not gotten into the reporting system yet.

    AFRICA UPDATE🌍: no infections reported to date, while more than 80 tests in Africa were negative.

    Suspected cases: Zimbabwe, Botswana, Algeria, Ethiopia and Sudan.

  190. Larry Ledwick says:

    To minimize the spread of viruses, a number of hospitals, markets, environmental and sanitation facilities are the main focus in sterilization operations (Indonesia)

    Need to translate

  191. Larry Ledwick says:

    This is bigger than the reports indicate I suspect

  192. Larry Ledwick says:

    And this my friend is the problem with just in time supply chain – no warehouse stocks = you snooze you lose. Hospitals should have arrangements for surge situations like this built into their systems.

    Your hording is my being prepared for an outcome that any 9th grade algebra student could calculate, if they were aware of the numbers currently developing.

    What about all the folks who have high risk factors, are they some how less important than the folks that work in the medical industry and assume their supply chain is adequate for surge demand but in fact is way behind the power curve due to bureaucracy? What about all the Chinese expats who have bought up all available masks in their local community and shipped them to friends in Hong Kong or mainland China and the feel good donation campaigns touting that their 40 ton shipment of medical supplies just arrived in country?

    Does any country maintain adequate strategic stocks of things like face masks besides Taiwan and a handful of western countries?

    This is a surge demand that any logistic specialist could have predicted 30 years ago why have the medical supply companies and hospitals built in a reserve stock for the medical first responders in that time? This is the sort of thing we talked about in emergency management training and planning sessions 40+ years ago.

  193. S.T. Taylor says:

    Good overview of what is going on…
    She is forecasting 100K by end of weekend…

  194. S.T. Taylor says:

    @ Larry

    The problem is that most large companies don’t want to carry the inventory that is needed to handle surge situations – the taxes, negative cash flow numbers, ect. all lead to companies attempting to drive down inventory to be more profitable. It’s a curse of the information age where we attempt to maximize profits on a second to second basis.

    My company had evaluated several times over the last 10 years how to divest themselves from China and every time the answer is it costs too much and the prices are too good in China – despite the risk. Now we are seriously considering biting the bullet since I think that China is not going to be able to “open back up for business” full time come next week. I believe that some areas will stay closed long term or may open and close based upon infected load.

    But the bottom line is that companies all make decisions based upon short term profits and never (almost never) focus on long term risk issues if those get into the way of the short term profit goal.

  195. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    4 February 2020 at 1:31 pm

    Strategic reserves? Only government can afford the capital “waste”.

  196. M Simon says:

    S.T. Taylor says:
    4 February 2020 at 1:43 pm

    She discusses inflammation. She also discusses “don’t panic” and “this shite is way worse than i thought”. Also America’s nurses are the best in the world. True. Excellent vid.

    . Why Cannabis Stems Inflammation – 2008

  197. M Simon says:

    Her rant about liberty starting at 11:00 in is excellent.

    I have checked and nursing schools for the last 10 years have been teaching “addiction is a symptom of PTSD” The young nurses all know this. Which might explain some of the libertarian attitude.

  198. M Simon says:

    A direct link?

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