6 Feb 2019-nCoV Corona Virus Outbreak

I’m likely to be away from keyboard for a day or two at a time for a little while, so, I’m adding this new thread. There’s s lot of good information in the prior threads, so folks new to the topic, or looking at it historically at some future date, may wish to start there. In chronological order:





I’m leaving comments open on that last one, 4 Feb, as it isn’t entirely dead slow yet ;-)

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Biology Biochem, Covid, Emergency Preparation and Risks, News Related, Science Bits and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

322 Responses to 6 Feb 2019-nCoV Corona Virus Outbreak

  1. S.T. Taylor says:

    @ Larry –

    IF China is rounding up infected patients – even those with minimal symptoms – that is not a good sign. They either feel that they patient is too contagious or won’t be able to recover – but rounding them up and putting them in facilities with minimal care makes we think that they are writing off a big portion of that population.

    If they really had control of the situation they would let people weather the storm at home.

    None of the actions taken at this time reflect a country that has been truthful about the extent of the outbreak – numbers of infected and mortality.

  2. Bill In Oz says:

    Dr Li who first reported Novel Corona virus is dead. And now being labelled a hero. in Chinese media. BTW I am not happy with this ABC report. It demonstrates how willing the ABC is to suck up tot he regime in China !


  3. Larry Ledwick says:

    Analysis of doubling time of 2019-nCoV pandemic in China suggests strong efforts to restrict social contact has helped, but the early doubling time before actions were taken does not bode well for countries which only have a few cases and the public have not embraced protective actions yet.


  4. Larry Ledwick says:

    Full pdf pf above pre-print can be down loaded from the download link

    Click to access 2020.02.05.20020750v1.full.pdf

  5. Bill In Oz says:

    Larry & Em, I am so grateful to be able to stay up to date on this huge problem.

    Larry thanks for your efforts ! It seems like you don’t sleep – unlike me !

    Sorry for the double up post about Dr Li’s death in Wuhan. But then it does illustrate how ‘sympathetic’ the ABC is to China.

  6. Larry Ledwick says:

    No problem – as I mentioned I worked in Emergency Management at the state level for 14 years, and it is my passion to do what good I can by finding the best info I can, might as well share it with those of like mind.

    Interesting post the other day from a Chinese gal that caught my eye.

    Zhi Yin ( you folks understand the melody)

  7. Larry Ledwick says:

    Significant decon activities continue in China as they try to slow the pandemic down.

    Those sprayers are typical of the designs developed to decontaminate chemical and biological agents by the military.

  8. Larry Ledwick says:

    Secondary infection not from China in UK

  9. Octave Fiddler says:

    Jefe, my F-R-A brother;

    Big thanks for the new thread and all of the moderation of threads.
    Still curious what to do about assets.
    I bailed out of the market, just to avoid trying to decide when the news is bad enough.
    Have sat out a more than a few up days here lately.
    I never could ‘grok’ the chart watching you’ve tried so patiently to teach us.
    I, for one, would enjoy any racing insights that occur.
    Only In Your Abundant Free Time

  10. Larry Ledwick says:

    This paper looks at the potential for the outbreak to become unstoppable out side of China and suggests that it still might be possible to stop it but it might require aggressive and immediate mitigation actions to do so.


  11. Octave Fiddler says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    6 February 2020 at 11:39 pm

    That British doc said it; we (the Brits) don’t have enough oxygen delivery capacity to get everyone through their oxygenation crises.
    He worried that less developed countries will be in big trouble.
    Also said he couldn’t understand the WHO moving so timidly.

  12. Octave Fiddler says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    6 February 2020 at 11:57 pm

    From that Lancet paper summary;
    ” ). We estimated that in the baseline scenario,
    Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had imported
    461 (95% CrI 227–805), 113 (57–193), 98 (49–168), 111 (56–191), and 80 (40–139)
    infections from Wuhan, respectively.
    If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.

    Interpretation Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks.
    Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately.
    Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of
    substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions.
    Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally. ”

    With the regional data on the wuflu.live site, it might be possible to plot those outbreaks over time.

  13. David A says:

    For days we have heard that countless people were turned away from hospitals, and never actually checked for the virus.

    Now we hear authorities are going door to door and checking people for fever, and sending them to the make-shift facilities by the thousands.

    Does this strike anyone else as insane.
    How many in a city of millions have a fever not associated with this virus?
    It sounds like they are being condemned to the most infectious environment possible. Already hearing rumors of inadequate heat, electric blankets blowing fuses. So a non 8nfected person is sent to sleep next to a known infected person in a chilly environment with poor medical care.

  14. Bill In Oz says:

    This new disease is causing fear among many of us
    Here in Australia, the USA and across the world.
    Many thousands of people in China are infected and many many deaths have happened.
    We fear being infected as well.We fear death.
    So we need to quarantine ourselves asa country from possible infection.
    But……the people suffering & dying from this new disease are also humans like us…It’s important to stay open to the people of China at the heart level..
    I’ve been reading the Twitter posts of Yuli Yang the Wuhan Chinese woman living in Hong Kong. Larry posted . a link above. She has parents there in lockdown. And talks of them plight of of her home city.


  15. Larry Ledwick says:

    Hmmm maybe they have found the intermediate host for the 2019-nCoV

    Qin Hui
    50 seconds ago
    Replying to @nextstrain @trvrb @Sydney_Uni
    Chinese researchers in Guangdong say they found beta corona virus in Pangolins which has 99% identity with 2019-nCoV. They believe Pangolins is the intermediate host. It’s not clear where did they get the Pangolins samples.

    3 minutes ago
    @lookner This odd-looking animal may be the vector for 2019nCoV according to the S. China Agricultural University. Trafficked in China for scales & meat.

  16. Octave Fiddler says:

    Looks like a distant cousin of an armadilla…
    Yet another fine catch by LL.

  17. Ossqss says:

    A friggin anteater eating issue? I am wondering now what is not on the menu in some areas of our vast globe? American Samoa was the only place to successfully hide in 1908, and I bet they didn’t eat bats or anteaters.

    HR, I hope you survived tonights FROPA (frontal passage) in West Florida without incident. Seeing some rough stuff happened up near you. Still no power here and many nader signatures around. Sorry I did not give you a heads up this time as I was not in a position to do so.

    UPS, system now getting a test tonight for net connectivity.

  18. Bill In Oz says:

    Pangolins are considered a rare & expensive delicacy in China. And this practice is why they are almost extinct in many parts of their natural range in Southern China & South East Asia.

  19. Larry Ledwick says:

    Evening all, just got home snow squall here with about 6″ on the ground and a lot of idiots who think they have to go 20 mph.

    Latest updates are about done for the evening now over 30K cases with 31,477 confirmed cases, 638 dead, and 1588 recovered.

    Plot of total cases continues the same general change with little change in slope from last night.

  20. Larry Ledwick says:

    The public in China is beginning to catch on.

    Prov 17:15 & 25:26

    44 minutes ago
    MoreProv 17:15 & 25:26 Retweeted Mugi(むぎほっちゃ)
    #nCoV #coronavirus #coronavirusPh #2019_nCoV

    Hong Kong society making run on grocery stores and supplies in expectation of a manufacturing collapse from China. Normal everyday people are now expecting China’s collapse in supplying certain goods like tissue & toilet paper.


    Panic spread through the #HongKong🇭🇰society as the #coronavirus has already impacted the living environment.

    Since there is a rumor about the shortage of supplies, people are now massively buying daily essentials, such as tissue, canned food, and…condom.

  21. Larry Ledwick says:

    Direct flight (non-stop) connections to Wuhan and the rest of the world.

  22. Larry Ledwick says:

    This is also filed under the “Well Duh!” catagory of emergency preparedness.

    Example is a wild fire but pandemic disease would be just as effective as burning trees at taking out critical systems.


  23. Graeme No.3 says:

    My thoughts are
    1. I know nothing about the virus.
    2. the reaction in China is typical bureaucracy in that first you ignore (or cover up) any bad news.
    3. When the news gets worse/the public start complaining, you over-react when finaly doing something.
    4. The ‘western’ MSM go into overdrive about the “coming end of the world” (as previously).
    5. Wuhan has been known as having poor living conditions (aerial pollution, nutrition, and hygiene) hence greater problems with infections and worse outcomes.
    6. On LIMITED SAMPLING those Chinese travelling overseas (hence probably with better nutrition and better medical attention) have had much lower death rates than forecast.
    7. The disease is at its worse during the current winter, and will mutate to a less virulent over the next few months (as previous diseases have).
    8. So quarantine (and delaying the spread) would benefit the southern hemisphere (where less people live) but could face a less dangerous form of the virus when their winter comes.
    9. Suggestions that the virus is a result of accidental or planned reselease of a genetically modified laboratory type are less than believable.

  24. Bill In Oz says:

    (Apologies for being off topic EM.)
    Larry the Conversation is well known leftwing progressive propaganda outlet that censors and deletes any views not on it’s leftish script. in this case the ideas promoted make some sense. However on East Gippsland it is woefully ignorant. This was for about 20 years my home turf. So I can make some additional remarks from a local perspective :
    1: Please look again at the photo of the road to Mallacoota being ‘cleared’. The bush is thick and has been allowed to grow right up to the road. If a tree goes over the road is blocked and maybe power lines down. (Landline phone lines are usually underground ) This bush up to the road is due to local government & state government policies to ‘protect’ the environment. The failure to mention demonstrates the source’s bias !

    2 : Also there is no mention in the article of cool burning to reduce fuel loads. That photo shows the huge fuel load ! This lack of cool burning is the ultimate reason why the bush fires happened here in Australia. Our bush was a bomb waiting for ignition !

    3: Since the fires, the bush along the Princess Highway, has been cleared back 25 meters on each side of the road..This there is now a new break of about 70 meters..To ensure the highway is not blocked in future. The government dumbnuts having bene burned changed their policy.

    I’m sure that readers in the Forests of California will understand this instinctively.

  25. Bill In Oz says:

    Back on topic !
    Graeme, a response to your comment :
    1. I know nothing about the virus.
    Indeed this is true ! hardly anybody knows anything about this virus. And we are all on a steep learning curve – like the chart of infections put out each day.

    2. the reaction in China is typical bureaucracy in that first you ignore (or cover up) any bad news.
    Ummmm ? Not quite accurate. The Chinese government attempted to suppress knowledge of the virus and only when it was obvious that social media had already told the world what was happening, did it take any action. The action taken was to soothe the public by saying that it did not spread human to human…

    3. When the news gets worse/the public start complaining, you over-react when finally doing something.
    Ummmmm ? I suggest that when the bleeding obvious was ‘obvious’ and it realised it could not get away with it’s lies, the Chinese government decided it had to make up time. hence the lock down.

    4. The ‘western’ MSM go into overdrive about the “coming end of the world” (as previously).
    Actually here the MSM was caught flatfooted.It was PM Morrson’s decision last Saturday to impose quarantine restrictions on the entry of people from China, which brought the media up to speed here in Oz.
    5. Wuhan has been known as having poor living conditions (aerial pollution, nutrition, and hygiene) hence greater problems with infections and worse outcomes.
    Check out the Twitter feed of Yuli Yang the Wuhan woman living in Hong Kong. She has lots to say about Wuhan. ( link via Larry’s comment above ) I did. It is a profoundly moving plea for help…Even material help is not possible at this stage.

    6. On LIMITED SAMPLING those Chinese travelling overseas (hence probably with better nutrition and better medical attention) have had much lower death rates than forecast.

    This probably reflects the simple fact that the numbers are far lower and thus the stress on medical staff & hospitals is far lower.

    7. The disease is at its worse during the current winter, and will mutate to a less virulent over the next few months (as previous diseases have).
    I hope you are right about this one !
    9. Suggestions that the virus is a result of accidental or planned release of a genetically modified laboratory type are less than believable.

    After reading EM’s remarks the other day about a deliberate release, I tend to agree. But an accidental release from the nearby Level 4 Bio-security facility, is still a real possibility.


  26. Bill In Oz says:

    Something weird is happening on the Australian Brainwashing Corporation
    They have been advertising that they will screen a panel discussion at 7.30 on Channel 24 this evening about Novel Corona virus disease. .
    I switched on only to discover it had been shifted to 10.03 pm
    And now I find it is due to be screened at 10.00 pm on ABC Channel 24.
    Are the ABC trying to play down this issue now ?
    Certainly there will be fewer viewers at 11.00 pm !

  27. H.R. says:

    @OssQss – I was ready for the storm. After last year, I check for severe weather in the 10-day forecast, so this wasn’t unexpected to me. Learned that from you last year.

    I got everything lashed to the deck. Our trailer was aligned better this year compared to a couple of strong storms last year that hit us straight from the side. This time the wind was coming in at the front of the trailer, so we hardly moved at all. No loss of electricity here.

    Last year was scary. 15-20 mph more wind and we might have rolled over, so I do watch the weather closely now. Oh, I have the trailer braced differently this year. I have outrigger supports on the slide-out so the extension no longer adds leverage that would make the trailer easier to roll.

  28. H.R. says:

    Well, my daughter-in-law hit a Trifecta of cities that have the highest numbers. She was in Wuhan, Shenzhen, and Shanghai. She made it out of China one day ahead of the flight ban and is now at home.

    She was not impressed with the passenger screening upon arrival in New York. She filled out a rather longish form before landing, which was gone over as passengers went through customs. By all rights, she should have been yanked aside for closer scrutiny given the cities she visited. Nope. Didn’t happen.

    If she arrived a day later, I think she would have been given a 14-day all-expenses-paid vacation at some military base. I’m not sure when the quarantine action went into effect, though.

    I mentioned before that she self-quarantines after a trip to China, just out of exhaustion and to clear out the pollution from her lungs and sinuses. She has been home 5 days now and still has no symptoms. If she makes it to 14 days, she should be golden and lucky to have escaped exposure.

    My son has the option to work from home, but I don’t know if he is doing that. He just jumped ship from a corporate position to a startup company last year, so even if he goes in to work, he will only be exposing one other person. We’ll be hearing from him soon, so I’ll try to find out if they are doing anything to reduce the odds of transmitting the virus – if they even have it – to others.

  29. Scott Taylor says:


    The WuFlu site has a nice graph that shows the number of new infections / day. According the the official data out of China we have seen two consecutive days of decreasing infections – which is what you would see once the disease has peaked and is burning out.

    What concerns me about this is that much of China is returning back to work next week or the week after – and the official data supports this (I guess??). The issue is that we believe that there are many asymptomatic carriers of this virus or people w/ very minimal systems. What happens when these people head out into the workforce again? Do we see a large spike of infections again in China?

    Finally – is the reason we have not yet seen any infections in Africa is that this disease receptor binding properties are such that they really don’t have a significant impact on the non-Asian population?

  30. David A says:

    Reports of more major cities on lock down, up to 400 million!

  31. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yep seeing that too – imagine the entire population of the US and Canada on lock down? Wow if true? some of the comments in this thread imply it might be a misinterpretation of various travel controls and restrictions and not a “lock down” as commonly perceived.

    This announcement by the US government on proposed quarantine rules, states that there are:

    Currently, there are at least 16 cities in China that are under travel restrictions and 26 of
    China’s provincial-level jurisdictions are on high health alert. Beijing city government has
    suspended all inter-province bus service.

    Click to access 2020-02731.pdf

    Very interesting breakdown – even more interesting that the number of cases quoted constitute about 1/2 the known confirmed cases.

    Helen Branswell
    ‏Verified account
    32 minutes ago
    #2019nCoV: Very important data released by @WHO’s @mvankerkhove just now: Based on data from 17,000 cases, 82% of cases are mild, 15% are severe and 3% are critical.
    First time I’ve seen that estimate of mild cases.

  32. Larry Ledwick says:

    Case count this morning in the US is now:
    31526 confirmed cases
    638 dead
    1764 recovered
    (source) https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    Another cruise ship being checked for suspected cases


    This event is going to wreck cruise ship companies all over the world, they already have a reputation of being peti dishes for diseases collected from their port calls, but this is going to have a huge impact on them.

  33. akell2013 says:

    Thanks to everyone who posts here.

    Anonymous Conservative also has some interesting posts: https://www.anonymousconservative.com/blog/30962-2/

    Scroll past the political stuff if that doesn’t interest you.

  34. ossqss says:

    Return trip with unexpected stop. First time I heard “Person of Interest” used?


  35. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    E. M.. and others here, over the last few years, have described the need of storage of food, water, and essentials. Emergency food, meds, and water for at least 3 days is desirable. Then think of the needs for a month – for each person. Quite a few families in the USA and some elsewhere think in even longer periods.
    Past stories of daily shopping for fresh food suggests such preparations and uncommon in China. Comments appreciated.

    Up thread, someone offered that if transport and manufacturing is severely shut down in China there will be serious issues. Doesn’t seem that this will end well, regardless of the actual illness and deaths.

  36. Larry Ledwick says:

    Eleven military bases near major airports in the United States are setting up quarantine centers for possible coronavirus patients, the Department of Defense said.


    The new quarantine centers are:

    JB Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii (HNL)
    Great Lakes Training Center Navy Base, Illinois (ORD)
    Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base, Texas (DFW)
    March ARB, California (LAX)
    Travis AFB, California (SFO)

    Dobbins ARB, Georgia (ATL)
    Fort Hamilton, New York (JFK)
    Naval Base Kitsap, Washington (SEA)
    Joint Base Anacostia, Washington DC (IAD)
    Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, New Jersey (EWR)
    Fort Custer Training Center, Michigan (DTW)

    The Department of Defense already has quarantine centers at:
    Fort Carson in Colorado
    Travis Air Force Base
    Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in California
    Lackland Air Force Base in Texas.

  37. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    Ytje @7:25 mentions “This event is going to wreck cruise ship companies …”

    I don’t own individual stocks. The first reports of this event will have triggered the automatic trading platforms. Check just now shows sharp drops beginning on January 17th. Another week or 2 of this and the signal will switch to “buy.”

  38. Larry Ledwick says:

    comments from an ICU doctor in Wuhan.

  39. Larry Ledwick says:

    The comments above raise some interesting questions, if incubation time is about 6.4 days more or less then patients show symptoms and become sick a few days later. As the Doctor noted above patients either die or recover after about 3 weeks of hospitalization than the full cycle from infection to death can take a month or a bit longer. That means we are only just now seeing the consequences of infections that happened in the first week of January when the outbreak was just being recognized as significant.

    The 30,000+ cases now confirmed will load down the system for another 3-5 weeks before they all recover or die. The drain on both people and resources is going to be catastrophic in areas that have limited ability to rotate in fresh staff and keep them supplied with proper protective gear.

    Stress of round the clock efforts will also increase the losses of first line medical staff as they get fatigued and exhausted, make mistakes or simply the numbers of close contacts eventually break through their defenses.

  40. jim2 says:

    One set of numbers that may be solid is recoveries vs deaths. Currently there are 638 deaths and 1764 recoveries. We know all these people were infected, so that would be a 26% death rate.

  41. Larry Ledwick says:

    That may be a bit high since some of the same cohort of patients may still be under care but not fully recovered, as that sample gets larger it will get more reliable the recoveries are slowly growing relative to the deaths when that ratio stabilizes then I think your observation will be useful.

  42. Larry Ledwick says:

    Related to your observation.

  43. Larry Ledwick says:

    Documents the case developments of several cases, (symptoms history etc.)


    Click to access 2020.02.03.20019141v2.full.pdf

  44. jim2 says:

    It should be restated, that of those with confirmed case of 2019-nCoV (mostly in China), 26% died. Agreed, the number will get more accurate as time goes on, and it begs the question of how many were infected, but had less onerous symptoms. Also, these are still mostly Asian and in a still in many ways a third world country, so OMMV.

  45. Larry Ledwick says:

    Persons Evaluated for 2019 Novel Coronavirus — United States, January 2020
    Early Release / February 7, 2020 / 69


    All 210 persons who were tested were symptomatic:
    143 (68%) had subjective fever or a measured temperature ≥100.4°F (≥38°C), and 189 (90%) had cough or shortness of breath. Upper respiratory tract symptoms (i.e., sore throat, rhinorrhea, or congestion) were common and were present in nine persons who did not have cough or shortness of breath.

    [ 30 ] Thirty persons were reported to test positive for another respiratory viral pathogen, including influenza or respiratory syncytial virus.

    [ 42 ] Forty-two (20%) patients were hospitalized, and
    [ 4 ] four (2%) were admitted to an intensive care unit.
    [ 1 ] One patient was deceased at the time of notification; testing for this person was negative, and an alternative cause of death was established.

    Travel-related risk was identified for 148 (70%) persons, 42 (20%) had close contact with ill patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection or PUIs, 18 (9%) had both travel- and contact-related risks, and two (<1%) had possible contact with a laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV patient and were therefore tested.

    Among the 210 persons tested, 11 (5%) were found to have 2019-nCoV infection.

    Nine of these persons had traveled to Wuhan City; two persons had not traveled but had been in close contact with patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV in the United States. All were symptomatic with fever (subjective or measured) or cough.

  46. ossqss says:

    JIm2, there are almost 32,000 confirmed cases as of the last update. It will probably be over 34,000 by the end of the day. 2% or less died would be more accurate.

  47. Larry Ledwick says:

    Very good summary of the problems with calculating death rate etc. from rapidly changing early pandemic data.

    ,b>(cliff’s notes – current estimates of 2% case fatality rate are meaningless they are calculated in an inherently flawed manner due to how the daily stats do not reflect actual long term outcomes.It is entirely possible the real CFR {case fatality rate} is several times larger than 2%)


  48. Larry Ledwick says:

    Nice time line summary of the development of the 2019-nCoV pandemic outbreak and how the news developed.


  49. Octave Fiddler says:

    jim2 says:
    7 February 2020 at 5:30 pm
    Remember to check the regional results from wuflu.live .
    All provinces but Hubei have dozens of recoveries and low-single-digit deaths.
    As Larry said, this is all early in the game.
    I doubt that Hubei can recover from the overwhelm,
    unless there is efficacy for chloroquinone administered en masse.
    I think that extrapolating from Hubei experience is without merit at this time.

    Province Confirmed Deaths Recovered
    Hubei 22112 618 817
    Guangdong 1034 1 88
    Zhejiang 1006 0 122
    Henan 914 3 84
    Hunan 772 0 118
    Anhui 665 0 47
    Jiangxi 661 0 45

  50. Octave Fiddler says:

    After hearing that British doc worry about mass oxygen delivery at 5 liters per minute.,
    I thought I should take a look at low-tech DIY Oxygen generation from water.
    Something to do besides hand-wringing…

    I’m hoping there is something wrong with my numbers.
    One ‘mole’ of gas (room temp, sea level pressure) is about 24 liters.
    So, would need to generate 5/24 moles of gas per minute.
    Generating a mole of O2 requires two moles of electrons, a.k.a. Faradays.
    In useful units, 96500 Coulombs of electrons in a Faraday,
    and 1 amp for 1 second conveys a Coulomb of electrons.

    So, 1 liter per minute would require at least (at 100% efficiency) ;
    1/24 times 96500 times 2 times 1/60 = 134 Amps per LiterPerMinute, if I am not mistaken.

    In theory that current only needs to take ~1.4 volts, but not much happens at that voltage.
    I seem to need 5 or 12 volts to get some satisfactory bubbling, in my limited tests.

    That kind of power is not commonly available, maybe a bunch of old PC power supplies.
    I think I might have one heroic power supply in the multi=hundred amp range, but it is not a useful solution for the low-resource people of the world. Maybe a DC welder, but they are typically only good for low duty cycle, 1 on 4 off, etc.

    So, I would be happy to have someone tell me this is wrong.
    I was going to go give it a shot, but it looks as hopeless as powering the world with windmills.
    Any Smart Fellers out there can correct my errors?

  51. jim2 says:

    ossqss – while there are 32,000 so far, the disposition of most of those cases is unknown. But the sum of known recoveries and deaths is a solid statistic.

  52. jim2 says:

    Octave F. – if you can find a source for this particular zeolite (amazing substances!!!) you might be able to roll your own.

    How an Oxygen Concentrator Works – Turning Air into Oxygen


  53. Larry Ledwick says:

    I’ve been told that thrift stores sometimes have those oxygen concentrators for sale that come in from estate sales of folks who had to use them to be ambulatory.

    There are several videos on line of folks collapsing this is the clearest one I have seen. This is very very similar to what happens to an asthma patient who is in crisis and due to low blood oxygen just has the lights go out.

  54. Larry Ledwick says:

    Li likely died as a legitimate consequence of contracting 2019-nCoV. Every tracked cohort I’ve read a study upon gives an observed CFR of 15%. 3/4ths of carriers that develop the severe respiratory form of the disease do not recover.

  55. Octave Fiddler says:

    Octave Fiddler says:
    7 February 2020 at 7:49 pm
    Oops, For Generation from H2O by hydrolysis , 1 mole of 02 takes 4 moles of electrons, not 2.

    So my calculation was low, I would need at least 268 amps to get 1 liter per minute.
    Wow, that is beyond the pale.
    Even with separate supplies for a bunch of electrodes, very few low-resource people could get that many old PC supplies, even though we are sending them back over to China by the ton for ‘recycling.’

    Thanks for the links about concentrators.
    Not a solution for the ROW, due to compressors, pressure vessels, and solenoids,
    but I might get another.
    I previously bought one on ebay, which arrived broken. Ugh.
    Whoever wrote that explanation of mechanism by zeolite didn’t really understand, i think.
    OK, there must be differential absorption of N2 vs. O2,.
    Absorb one when pressurized, remainder is the mostly other.
    Google says “nitrogen molecule measures roughly 300 picometers while an oxygen molecule measures 292 picometers. That’s only a 2.6% difference in size.”
    Amazing that I can buy ‘molecular sieve’ by the pound…

    I guess this is why people sell concentrators instead of hydrolysis oxygen generators.


  56. Octave Fiddler says:

    One other point; I think the reason for high flow oxygen is to establish high% O2 air intake.
    But the reason they need high% O2 is impaired uptake into blood.
    Thus, exhaled air would still have relatively high O2.
    This might represent opportunity to service more patients with limited supplies,
    if controlled rebreathing could be done in a low tech way.
    Problem with rebreathing would be CO2 build up, so there would need to be some level of continuous exhaust and O2 resupply.
    This is all related to the topic of mass care in limited resource situations.

  57. Compu Gator says:

    Here in the U.S.A., hospitals and private medical care seem to this layman to rely quite heavily on disposability of equipment; the faithful autoclaves and sanitizing machines of old feel callously neglected. That’s arguably an expensive way to run a hospital or practice medicine, and China straddles the First and Third Worlds, so I wonder:
    • Is a comparable proportion of disposable equipment used in China, and how much of their production might be made unavailable to the U.S.A. &c. by diversion to Chinese domestic use?
    • Or might disposability be contrary to some principle in the Chinese economy or culture (e.g., as recently as a few decades ago, I read that in restaurants off the tourist paths, wooden chopsticks were customarily reused without cleaning before or after; diners more-or-less randomly withdrew them from a common container, then returned them to that container afterwards; can you say eeewww?).
    • Might the various medical equipment shortages cause medical staff to improvise cleaning procedures for equipment never intended to be reused? If so, might flaws be increasing the rate or severity of infection (I’m thinking of blood-draws for testing, altho’ maybe they’re done with saliva swabs)?
    • What proportion of disposable medical equipment used in the U.S.A. is made in China (and generally, in any other overseas countries whose workforces might be disabled or quarantined by the Coronavirus into production interruptions)?
    • How long would prospective replacement suppliers require to tool up for production to replace shortages caused by interruptions of Chinese production?
    • If shortages are remedied by presumably more expensive production, e.g., in the U.S.A., Germany, or Netherlands, what impacts might that have on medical coverage in the U.S.A., notably for insurers to recover increased costs?

  58. Larry Ledwick says:

    Population density map and cases overlaid

    Interactive world population density map

  59. Larry Ledwick says:

    That is sort of like the disposable diaper vs washable cotton pad diaper, the washable diaper is actually the more sustainable option but most people are willing to pay extra not to have to wash poopy diapers.

    As we mentioned the other day some single use items can be sterilized and re-used if you must, and you can make expedient face masks out of other common materials like cotton T shirts.

    since 90% of the function of face masks is actually to control incidental small dropplet contact with the face, you probably really don’t “need” n-95 masks unless you are a health care provider in constant close contact with highly infectious patients.

    It is a case of different horses for different courses. For casual go to the grocery store type usage, a washable cotton pad face mask is probably more than sufficient. When you get home dip it in alcohol, squeeze it dry and let it air dry, then maybe toss it in a small pressure cooker and run it through a sterilization cycle and you could probably re-use it.

    At the nuclear test site in Nevada we dressed up in double layers of cotton overalls not fancy tyvek bunny suits. A bit of masking tape to seal the openings and we were good to go in areas highly contaminated with plutonium. The washed and reused them until the fixed contamination exceeded allowable limits then they tossed them as low level waste.

    Same sort of strategy could be used for long term provision of basic face mask protection and save the high end n-95 and above for the folks that really need them.

    People also forget the eyes are a pathway for protection if you are wearing a mask for droplet control you also need some sort of face shield or wrap around glasses to limit the ability of a sneeze droplet getting to your eyes.

    There are lots of reasonably fashionable wrap around glasses available ranging from water clear safety glasses, amber shooting glasses to the various fashionable colored glasses.

    If you don’t need glasses for eye sight issues, might want to poke around and find a wrap around glass design you are comfortable wearing in public, even aviator style sun glasses would provide significant eye protection against droplets.

    I have a couple pairs of these for working on cars, grinding and sanding and such where you need some eye protection. Really cheap and crystal clear lenses.


  60. Larry Ledwick says:

    This has some good basic technical info on 2019-nCoV for anethesiologists.


    It is generally assumed that the SARS virus is very similar to the 2019-nCoV virus – this gives info on the SARS including its size (100-140 nanometers = 0.1 – 0.16 microns) so even an N-95 mask will not reliably capture single airborne virons but will capture larger micro droplets.


  61. Larry Ledwick says:

    Characterization of typical airborne droplets generated by sneezing, coughing speech etc.
    Almost all are much larger than 0.3 microns so even expedient masks would catch the majority of such droplets.


  62. Octave Fiddler says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    7 February 2020 at 10:08 pm
    Once again, thank you, Very Nice reference on sneezed stuff. (!)
    There must be a ‘fat tail’ to explain those loogies that seem to coat my laptop screen.
    Let alone when I’m eating oatmeal…

    I’ve always wondered what happens with HEPA filters for smaller particles than those specified for the 99.97 % arrestance, I think that is for 0.3 micron particules?

    Wow, double coveralls and tape. There’s a trust exercise…

    regarding that map of cases vs. density,
    the boring graph would be deaths by region. , at least for now,
    One giant dot, and a bunch of flyspecs.
    We’ll just have to wait and see what happens.

  63. Larry Ledwick says:

    White house asks for investigation regarding the possibility that the 2019-nCoV is an intentionally engineered virus (perhaps bio weapon) that got loose or was intentionally released rather than the result of a natural process.


  64. S.T.Taylor says:

    WuFlu has first update of the evening. 34444 – 721 deaths

  65. Newscaoer says:

    Not an O2 concentrator, but would my CPAP be better than nothing with its increased air pressure?

  66. M Simon says:

    At 4V and 80% conversion efficiency And 100% electrons to O – that equals 1200 watts – the limit of a regular US circuit. Since high or even moderate purity is not required – separation is the way to go.

  67. David A says:

    Jim says ” . But the sum of known recoveries and deaths is a solid statistic.” ( If one puts any faith in those numbers)

    Clearly there are lots of reasons to doubt the official numbers.
    All of them are good reasons.

  68. Larry Ledwick says:

    Okay a little emergency preparedness rant here.

    Every certified hospital in the civilized world and every legitimate emergency management organization conducts mass casualty exercises regularly. For hospitals they are usually one of 3 common forms, mass casualty trauma (ie explosion car accident etc., mass casualty hazardous materials, or mass casualty epidemic).

    In every one I have had occasion to participate in, they always run into logistics issues with personal protection equipment and essential supplies for medical problems (ie IV solutions, surgical gloves, masks etc.)

    Same happens in real world emergencies. When World Youth Day and the Pope came to Colorado we had so many folks dehydrated that the national guard was transporting pickup truck loads of IV solutions to the venue so the EMT teams could re-hydrate the participants who were not drinking enough.

    This is not a new and unusual situation! A month ago you if you had walked up to some random Nurse or EMT and asked them if they would have enough personal protective equipment (PPE) in their ambulance or hospital to take care of a prolonged (weeks plus) campaign to treat thousands of patients, every single one of them would have said it would be a huge challenge.

    Add in the totally predictable public effort to “stock up” on what ever emergency supplies they feel are necessary there is really zero excuse for anyone in the public health field to act surprised by a shortage of PPE and also absolutely zero excuse for those in a position to do something about it to have not long ago investigated local supply inventories and worked out ways to augment supplies.

    Right now, probably the best option is to put together some adhoc mass production campaign for things like masks, eye wear, gloves and gowns. (prison manufacturing? home manufacture plans for home made cloth masks (FEMA)?, shifting of commercial production of similar products to mask production etc.)

    Exponential growth is not your friend when you are on the wrong side of the curve!

    Somebody in CDC, Health and Human services, Military medical branches, FEMA etc should have been on the phone with manufactures a week ago working out how to ramp up supplies.

    This “shortage” is as obvious as Walmart expecting a run on snow shovels and snow brushes just before the first snow storm of the season.

    /endrant Okay I feel better now.

  69. p.g.sharrow says:

    Maybe I should go out into the shop and find our therapeutic oxygen concentrator and make sure that it still works. This thing is nearly 20 years old, professional grade and as heavy as a boat anchor but if we need it, far better then nothing. Likely be 2-3 weeks before we have a good Idea of the risks here in America but the west coast seems to be at first risk.

    A HEPA filter can trap very small particles because it depends on the trapped dust to increase it’s ability to sieve by “making” a blanket of fine dust, BUT ! , if you shut it off it is ruined and will puff everything out when you turn it back on. So once energized, do not turn it off.

  70. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like the typical disease cycle runs about 3 weeks from infection to final stages where you either die or begin recovery.

  71. Octave Fiddler says:

    Octave Fiddler says:
    7 February 2020 at 8:57 pm

    Topic; Maximizing available Oxygen , when need exceeds supply.
    (a standard compressed gas T cylinder holds maybe 330 cubic feet , 9300 liters.
    at 5 Liters per minute, thats only 31 hours. (and those T bottles are heavy!)
    If resting ‘minute ventilation’ volume is 5 to 8 liters each minute,
    that would be roughly 100% oxygen inhalation. (ignoring losses due to intermittant inhalation).

    What about breathing into/from a plastic bag with 1 liter/minute supply?

    Exhaled breath is maybe 5% CO2, so that would be 0.25 liters of CO2 per minute at the 5 l minute rate.
    Assuming well-mixed gas in the rebreather,, 1 liter per minute passive venting of the mixed gas, and 1 liter per minute fresh supply of 100% O2, , I think that says the CO2 would build up to 25% in the rebreather.
    Pretty sure this would be a genuine Problem , not just an ‘issue’,

    Scrub the CO2?
    For low resource settting, lye solution (hydroxide) might be accessible, so bubble the gas in the bag through it. Ok, this might remove CO2, but The chances of aerosolized or simply spilled hydroxide seem too big to attempt ‘at scale’ in overwhelm situations.

    Low Continous Flow, with no rebreathing;
    If 4 of the 5 liters per minute of ambient air we inhale are at 20% O2, and 1/5 are 100% O2,
    that would boost the inhaled air to 36% O2 from the 20% if all the gas from the cannula was inhaled.
    As it is intermittent, at least half of it is lost .
    This suggests that a small bag that holds the supplied O2 during non-inhalation, would have merit in minimizing wastage.
    (The Inogen concentrator does this by sensing inhalations and delivering a pulse of gas into each breath. They seem to attempt to synchronize the compress/release cycles, such that the pressure vessels are the ‘bag’.)

    Pulsed flow O2 for hospitals;
    The ‘supplied gas’ situation would involve sensing the inhalation at the proximal end of the nasal cannula, and operating a solenoid valve to release the shot of gas.
    Yet again, not relevant to a low resource, overwhelm situation.
    As O2 is relatively cheap, no justification for these in routine practice.

    Seems like effective medications or ‘remedies’ are really the thing to concentrate on.
    Any ideas on mail order chloroquinone?


  72. Larry Ledwick says:

    Effects of weather (temperature and humidity) on infection rate of viruses

  73. Octave Fiddler says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    7 February 2020 at 11:55 pm

    At some point, it seems like the sum of deaths + Recoveries should track the Confirmed Case count from N days prior. While ignoring the problems with the assumptions, what is N ?

  74. Larry Ledwick says:

    BANDIT XRAY 🇺🇸 ⚔
    7 minutes ago
    CDC reportedly says five people evacuated from Wuhan, China, and who were being quarantined at Travis Air Force Base in Fairfield, CA, now show symptoms of #Coronavirus #2019nCoV

    President’s Coronavirus Task Force provided an update to the public on current outbreak efforts.

  75. Larry Ledwick says:

    BNO Newsroom
    ‏Verified account

    BREAKING: 3 more people diagnosed with coronavirus on cruise ship near Tokyo, raising ship’s total to 64

    Fatalities are closely tracking confirmed cases, so proportionally the two stats agree with each other.

  76. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    7 February 2020 at 11:37 pm

    Emergency tool up would take six to twelve months. And once you are done and the current panic is over you are stuck with all that excess machinery. Which you trained people to run.

    Emergency stocks are good – who pays for the inventory? You then get a stock rotation problem.

  77. jim2 says:

    LL said
    “Fatalities are closely tracking confirmed cases, so proportionally the two stats agree with each other.”

    Hypothetically, if all infection ceased, some portion of the infected will die, thus increasing fatalities vs infections. Just a thought, but it means the death rate is higher than it appears.

  78. Larry Ledwick says:

    Putu Liza Mustika 😷
    6 minutes ago
    Friday: Another 41 people on #DiamondPrincess quarantined in Yokohama have tested positive for #coronavirus. Total number of ppl from the vessel infected with the #2019nCoV virus is now 61.


    BNO Newsroom
    ‏Verified account
    BREAKING: 3 more people diagnosed with coronavirus on cruise ship near Tokyo, raising ship’s total to 64

    The cruise ships are big live animal test labs for humans at this point.

  79. Larry Ledwick says:




    Click to access corbion_a_safe_antimicrobial_for_hpc_applications_eng.pdf

    Lactic Acid also has antiviral properties. Assessment of antiviral properties was made using studies carried out according to the EN 14476 European Standard for evaluation of virucidal efficacy of disinfecting liquids. Particularly
    enveloped viruses are sensitive to deactivation by Lactic
    Acid exposure. This is not due to oxidative stress as it is in
    bacteria, but does involve a biological membrane. In the
    case of enveloped virus particles, the membrane can also
    be disrupted and the proteins inside disabled, or denatured
    by the Lactic Acid.

  80. Larry Ledwick says:

    On various compounds to sterilize (ie alcohols, chlorine compounds etc.)

  81. Larry Ledwick says:

    Based on this article we should be looking at comparing death rate with the known cases 2 -3 weeks earlier, and accounting for the cases which were so mild they were never tested.

    That would be the true case fatality ratio ( CFR )


    The other option would be to randomly pick a sample of 1000 people and follow all to the end outcome of dead, or cured with antibodies to the disease vs those apparently never affected and no antibody evidence of being infected.

    That is obviously a few months down the road.

  82. Larry Ledwick says:

  83. David A says:

    Has anyone found information on how many hospitals there are in Wuhon? The exhibition hall they set up is 1.5 million sq’.
    Yet I found nada on the number of hospitals.

    The goal here is to make a WAG at how many total hospital beds there are, vs how many hospital beds would typically be occupied??

    I would go on the very low side of any typical number of occupied for three primary reasons. First of all we know about 4 million people, at least, got out of there just before the lock down. Secondly would you risk going to a hospital full of people dying from this virus. ( There is very little chance a sane person would voluntarily go near that environment) And finally, with all but necessary services shut down, one would expect fewer accidents or injuries. Regular construction on hold, regular sports, or hold, people avoiding the hospital like the, well like the plague. So how many hospital type beds does Wuhon have, and does that number make sense to their claimed number of people with the virus??

  84. ossqss says:

    David A, if your sick, where would you go aside from a hospital in this city or any other near by? I believe there were posts above with Dr.’s attesting to turning away those in need due to lack of space.

    Where did the millions people that left the city go back to if they did, after a week?

    Perplexing, no matter, in the end.

  85. Larry Ledwick says:

    Which brings up another question for brain storming – if people fail to show up for work (especially in businesses that have lots of customer contact. What industries and critical services would fail to function. Some things like utilities can work for a while on skeleton crews of supervisors (like they do during big labor shut downs) but eventually you wear out your skeleton crew and missed upkeep bites you.

  86. Larry Ledwick says:

    If you rank utilitie type services by critical need you get something like this.
    ( I am assuming the govt would put medical right at the top) and would man with military if all else fails.

    Potable water
    electric power
    trash pickup (no one is going to want to pick up trash!)
    fuel for transportation and heat.

    Consumer centered business would be at the very bottom (jewelry stores, shoe stores, small shops, department stores that only sell high fashion cloths etc. sporting goods)

    General purpose outlets like super store markets (equivalent to our K mart and Walmart where you can get most anything)

  87. Larry Ledwick says:

    The eye exposure pathway for 2019-nCoV


    If things get to where it is appropriate to wear a face mask you also need some sort of eye protection.

  88. Power Grab says:

    What about the possibility of exposure via Mexico?

    My piano student went to Mexico last week because his grandmother was seriously ill and they thought she might pass. Now he’s back.

    We ended up not meeting this week due to schedule changes, but I got to wondering how likely that trip would have exposed him and his family to travelers who had recently been to China.

    Any thoughts?

  89. Power Grab says:

    Speaking of sewer systems… I have a sibling who works for the water treatment plant (discharge side) in a town a couple of counties away. When floods happened earlier this year, they had to just let the effluent go “over the wall” (as it were). I know hope is not a strategy, but I’m hoping we don’t get that kind of flooding for another decade or so…especially if we get any significant amount of this coronavirus.

    One time they shared their normal routine for disinfecting after work. I need to get a refresher on that….

  90. Octave Fiddler says:

    Regional analysis 2/7;
    71 % of ‘confirmed’ cases in Hubei, where 96% (699) of official deaths occurred, and 52% of the ‘recoveries.
    All other provinces together have 29% of cases 4% (26) of the deaths, and 47% of the recoveries.

    In second place behind Hubei is Helongjiang with 5 deaths among 299 cases.
    Helongjiang seems to be the northeast corner of china, perhaps like Maine as far as remoteness to the centroid of Chinese population.

    Henan is adjacent to Hubei, further inland, has 4 deaths of 981 cases.
    My point is that the top eleven provinces with highest case count (omitting Hubei),
    have very low death rates,
    7288 cases, 10 deaths, 756 recoveries.
    I think they are figuring out how to manage the cases, outside Hubei.
    Larry has pointed out these are probably early in the cycle, but worth watching.

  91. Larry Ledwick says:

    We ended up not meeting this week due to schedule changes, but I got to wondering how likely that trip would have exposed him and his family to travelers who had recently been to China.

    Well there are two sides to the cruise ship business, the ship and the ports they make port calls in, so yes if he spent any time at the major cruise ship ports of call or the major tourist attractions (Aztec/Mayan pyramids etc) it fould not surprise me at all if we start seeing port of call infections in a week or so.

  92. Bill In Oz says:

    Family of 5 locked in quarantine discovered all dead ! I wonder if these people will ever be included in the death count !

  93. M Simon says:

    Bill In Oz says:
    8 February 2020 at 8:18 am

    I don’t know how much I’d trust that source. Here is something else they published.

  94. Octave Fiddler says:

    Time Series Data for global (by region) Cumulative Cases, Deaths, Recoveries on three tabs,, is all here;
    TIme starts on Jan 21, ‘first confirmed cases Jan 3’,
    Hubei already had 270 cases and 25 recoveries on Jan 21 , no deaths until Jan 24 where they had 24.
    Probably Larry or ? posted this previously.

    Looks like there is enough granular detail to track down time lapse between ‘confirmation’ and ‘Outcome’, which would be deaths plus recoveries.
    i.e. add 699 deaths and 1115 recoveries as of Feb7 in Huwei. Look back in time to find that number of cumulative confirmations (1814) in Huwei, sometime on Jan 27.
    Voila, duration of detected manifestation of illness., ~11 days.
    Recheck other dates and regions for consistency.
    I’m too bleary-eyed to try this tonight, and I make errors even when I’m not.
    Some chance this would ‘validate’ observations of regional differences in death rate and recovery rates.
    i.e., is Hubei different or just further ahead?

    Maybe Jefe will bless us with some of his fine graphs when he is back.

    Hubei is probably going to lose a lot of their citizens, unless a medicinal intervention is found and administered quickly.

  95. David A says:

    Thanks Larry. When I look at hospital list vs a map far more come up. About 30 with just hospital, plus many speciality hospitals, orthopedic, children’s, traditional Chinese medicine, etc, so that plus no list on bed numbers makes any WAG a true WAG. Has the government converted speciality facilities to virus beds?

    As to where would I go in Wuhan if I needed a hospital? It very much would depend on the need. Many things I would try to self treat. Concerns, feeling very weak while exercising, almost passing out, headaches, cut – stitches, possible hairline fracture, etc… I would postpone or self treat. I would think most other blood tests etc are on hold as the labs are overwhelmed.

    If reports from the one hospital were true, 30 percent of medical staff sick, and ? percentage sick without symptoms, hallways full of sick people, maybe even dead bodies on the floor, I would do all possible to avoid.

    There is no way that China would collapse their economy over 700 deaths, there is no way they would dispatch the military, quarantine several hundred million, lock people in apartment complexes and homes, and cremate upon death, no services no funerals, over 700 deaths! ( How many cremation facilities are there in Wuhan, and how many can they cremate per day)

    Yes, it would be good to know the average number of days from infection to death. There is certainly no easy way to know the true death percentage at this time. ( Not in China anyway.).

    Watching the collapse of China’s economic output, are other nations going to report accurate numbers to the world?

  96. llanfar says:

    Dr. Judy Mikovits has been a researcher since the 80’s.

  97. jim2 says:

    So today on the Johns Hopkins dashboard, there are 34954 cases, 725 deaths, and 2391 recoveries. Based on the death to (death + recoveries) number, the death rate is 23%.

    So, the number of unknown outcomes is 34954 – 725 – 2391 = 31838. If infections froze at this level, then based on the current death rate (mainly for conditions in China), an additional .23 * 31838 = 7322.74 would die.

    Larry may have some better numbers, but IIRC the initial known outcomes indicated about half and half, or a 50% death rate, so the death rate based on known outcomes does appear to be going down, but is still much higher than 2%.

    Larry, do you have some screen shots of previous dashboard numbers? Maybe we can ascertain a trend. Cases in the developed world probably won’t die at the Chinese rate – I hope – so those cases will bias the death rate lower.

  98. Larry Ledwick says:

    Larry, do you have some screen shots of previous dashboard numbers?

    Yes that is why I was posting screen shots over the last few days, major daily screen shots were mostly posted at about 9:00 -11:00 pm MDT every day in previous posts, just scroll through the posts in this series and you can grab all of them or if you have a specific date in mind I can pull them up.

    This morning’s numbers (I forgot to screen grab last nights)

    Probably better though would be to look at the raw data.

    At bottom center of that johns Hopkins page there are some links for tabular data.

    “Google Sheet: Here. Time series table: Here. Feature layer: Here.


  99. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well this is encouraging, secondary infections with 2019-nCoV by people staying in a vacation ski lodge occupied earlier by someone who tested positive for the virus.
    (in other words hotel rooms can carry infection to subsequent occupants if not fully decontaminated between visitors [which is never going to happen before secondary infections are discovered]


  100. Octave Fiddler says:

    jim2 says:
    8 February 2020 at 2:46 pm

    The global time series of confirmed cases, deaths, recoveries (three tabs at the top right),
    used for the Hopkins summary plots is here;


    The data from China is in rows according to region, 23 regions.(like states without the state’s-rights)
    . All numbers are cumulative (running totals).
    As I mentioned upthread, the data from the dominant state Hubei easily dominates summary calculations. We can’t get true ‘fatality rates’ because (1) mild cases don’t show up to be tested, and (2) apparently not a few severe cases don’t make it into the pool of tested cases before they die.

    We can, however, look (on any given day) at death/recovery fraction, ‘knowing’ that those people became ‘confirmed cases’ in the database about 10-12 days prior. The data seems to begin around Jan 21, so we have 18 days of confirmations and death/recoveries.
    I think it is true that confirmed cases are all eventually accounted as recoveries or deaths.
    I haven’t done that consistency check across the data set, but it is readily possible to do.

    The one thing I think I see, is that Hubei (containing Wuhan) has much higher death/recovery fraction, compared to all other Chinese regions, either individually or as a group.

    Thus, I think your numeric conclusions are significantly overstated, i.e. misleading and wrong.
    I would go so far as to say inappropriate.
    The other regions have much lower ‘death rates’ among confirmed cases.
    The degree of under-reporting due to mild cases and sudden pre-test pulmonary deaths is not knowable at this time.
    For that we will have the cruise ship data, with stewards shuttling back/forth delivering meals to staterooms..
    It is Row 73 of that data base, now showing 61 cases, no deaths or recoveries.
    We’ll know more in 12 days.

  101. Octave Fiddler says:

    How do I copy/paste a screen shot? Data City, baby..

    Anhui Mainland China 1/3/2020 31.82571 117.2264 1 9 15 15 39 39 60 60 70 70 70 106 106 106 152 152 152 200 200 237 237 297 408 480 480 530 530 591 591 591 665 733
    Beijing Mainland China 1/3/2020 40.18238 116.4142 10 14 22 26 36 36 41 51 68 68 72 80 80 91 91 91 111 111 111 114 139 139 168 191 212 212 228 253 274 274 274 297 315
    Chongqing Mainland China 1/3/2020 30.05718 107.874 5 6 9 27 27 57 57 75 75 110 110 110 132 132 132 147 147 147 165 182 211 238 247 300 337 337 366 376 389 400 400 415 426
    Fujian Mainland China 1/3/2020 26.07783 117.9895 1 5 5 10 10 18 18 35 35 56 59 59 80 80 82 84 84 101 101 120 120 144 159 179 179 194 205 215 215 215 224 239
    Gansu Mainland China 1/3/2020 36.0611 103.8343 2 2 2 4 4 7 7 14 14 14 19 19 19 24 24 24 26 26 29 35 35 51 55 55 57 57 62 62 62 67 71
    Guangdong Mainland China 1/3/2020 23.33841 113.422 17 26 32 53 53 78 78 98 111 146 151 151 151 207 207 241 277 277 311 354 436 436 535 683 725 797 870 895 944 970 970 1034 1075
    Guangxi Mainland China 1/3/2020 23.82908 108.7881 2 5 13 23 23 23 33 36 46 46 46 51 51 51 58 58 58 78 78 87 88 100 127 139 139 150 150 168 168 168 172 183
    Guizhou Mainland China 1/3/2020 26.81536 106.8748 1 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 29 29 29 46 56 56 64 64 69 71 71 81 89
    Hainan Mainland China 1/3/2020 19.19673 109.7455 4 5 8 8 17 19 19 22 22 33 33 33 40 40 43 43 43 43 46 52 58 62 71 79 79 91 91 100 106 106 117 124
    Hebei Mainland China 1/3/2020 38.0428 114.5149 1 1 2 2 8 8 13 13 18 18 18 33 33 33 48 48 48 65 65 82 96 96 113 126 126 135 135 157 157 157 172 195
    Heilongjiang Mainland China 1/3/2020 47.862 127.7622 2 4 4 9 9 15 15 21 21 21 30 33 33 37 38 38 43 44 59 59 80 95 155 155 190 190 227 227 227 277 295
    Henan Mainland China 1/3/2020 33.88202 113.614 5 5 9 9 32 32 83 83 128 128 128 168 168 168 206 206 206 278 278 352 352 422 566 675 675 764 764 851 851 851 914 981
    Hubei Mainland China 1/3/2020 30.97564 112.2707 270 444 444 549 549 729 761 1052 1058 1423 1423 1423 2714 2714 3554 3554 3554 3554 4586 4903 5806 7153 7153 11177 13522 13522 16678 16678 19665 19665 19665 22112 24953
    Hunan Mainland China 1/3/2020 27.61041 111.7088 1 4 9 24 24 43 43 69 69 100 100 100 100 143 143 221 221 221 277 277 332 332 389 521 521 593 661 661 711 711 711 772 803
    Inner Mongolia
    Mainland China 1/3/2020 44.09448 113.9456 1 1 2 7 7 7 11 11 11 11 15 15 16 16 16 16 19 20 20 23 27 34 34 42 42 46 46 46 50 52
    Jiangsu Mainland China 1/3/2020 32.97027 119.464 1 5 9 9 18 18 31 33 47 47 47 70 70 70 99 99 99 129 129 168 168 202 271 308 308 341 341 373 373 373 408 439
    Jiangxi Mainland China 1/3/2020 27.61401 115.7221 2 2 7 7 18 18 18 36 36 48 48 72 72 72 109 109 109 109 162 162 240 240 286 391 391 476 548 548 600 600 600 661 698
    Jilin Mainland China 1/3/2020 43.66657 126.1917 1 3 3 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 9 14 14 14 14 17 31 42 42 54 54 59 59 59 65 69
    Liaoning Mainland China 1/3/2020 41.29284 122.6086 2 3 4 4 15 17 19 21 23 27 27 27 34 34 36 39 39 39 41 48 60 63 70 74 74 81 88 89 91 94 99 99
    Ningxia Mainland China 1/3/2020 37.26923 106.1655 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 7 7 7 11 11 12 12 12 12 17 21 21 26 28 31 34 34 34 40 40 40 43 45
    Qinghai Mainland China 1/3/2020 35.65945 96.02564 1 1 1 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

  102. Larry Ledwick says:

    So that raises the question of cleaning to remove virus load from possibly infected persons. In public areas what areas are high touch surfaces you should avoid touching with your hands if you can? What should you disinfect if you can?

    Elevator buttons, door push plates and handles, hand rails for stairs, public phones, carrying handles for luggage if traveling, push bars on shopping carts, arm rests on chairs in waiting rooms, light switches, faucet handles, restroom doors, flush handles on public toilets, key boards and mice on work stations, the desk near the key board where hands would naturally rest, computer screens if the used likes to point at things on the screen, remote controls in conference rooms, conference room tables and chairs, break area equipment (ice machine controls, hot water dispenser buttons, refrigerator doors and microwave doors, trash can lids/push open tops, security pads (if people have to punch in a key code for access) in break or work areas etc.)

    During pandemic spread conditions, since many viruses can survive for days on stainless steel and other common hard surfaces like counter tops, perhaps a daily wipe down routine of such surfaces with disinfectant wipes would help.

    Materials you should have on hand.
    disposable gloves and face masks and eye protection.
    If involved in a major clean up disposable overalls (painters tyvek suits etc.)
    chlorox unscented bleach plastic bucket lots of disposable wipes / paper towels
    trash bags for refuse of cleaning.
    generic spray bottles you can mix cleaning solutions in.

    Don’t vacuum area before cleaning as this will cause pathogens to become airborne and spread.

    If you can open windows and ventilate to reduce airborne contamination. The old fashioned idea of “airing out the house” really works to cut down suspended infectious particles in a room. You are trying to achieve greater than 12 air changes per hour in the structure to lower counts significantly.


    Interesting paper on using indoor CO2 levels as an index of how good the ventilation is (study was related to TB control).


    Note that simple cleaning with sponges and detergent water actually spread virus to other surfaces, use disposable wipes for cleaning.


    Related – cleaning up hanta virus contamination gives some good advice for cleaning up known contaminated areas with high viral loads – probably useful guidelines for 2019-nCoV.

    Click to access hps_brochure.pdf


    Guide lines for cleaning up after strep which is bacterial but useful guide for the basic principles.


  103. jim2 says:

    The death rate isn’t a “natural” death rate, i.e. one without any medical intervention. The known outcome death rate will reflect a number of factors: availability of medical supplies, hospital beds, sanitation, how far the infection has spread, genetic predisposition to infection, etc. So, the Chinese death rate will be worse than that here in the US, I’m thinking, especially if the current infected US patients are kept isolated until they no longer shed virus.

  104. Larry Ledwick says:

    How do I copy/paste a screen shot? Data City, baby..

    Use the print screen function button (that puts what you see on the screen in your clip board buffer)

    Then paste that data into a photo editing software of some sort. I use the freeware software called:
    irfanview (simple down load use (control Y) to crop to an area you have selected)

    I think windows 10 has a built in screen shot package but I never use it as I have been using irfanview for over a decade.

    Then save that image. To post it here you have to use some sort of an image hosting service to get a URL link that will display the image.

  105. Octave Fiddler says:

    here’s a calculation for Hubei from Jan 24 to date, Deaths/ (recoveries plus deaths)
    THis is cumulative rate, which is now improving.
    Incremental rate probably improving faster.
    death/ recov+death 0.436363636 0.436363636 0.5 0.555555556 0.553191489 0.553191489 0.633333333 0.628099174 0.628099174 0.680272109 0.657894737 0.609756098 0.609756098 0.609756098 0.58685446 0.642857143 0.642857143 0.591304348 0.597122302 0.457720588 0.475543478 0.511111111 0.442307692 0.471456693 0.423893805 0.435368755 0.435368755 0.387711864 0.35660704

    Early data will be noiser due to small N.
    Other regions much lower fraction of death.
    I gotta go.

  106. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting item on how flu spreads and how much virus shedding takes place unknown (ie people who show no symptoms) Interesting also to note that you continue to shed virus even after you feel well enough to go back to work so businesses what force people to get back to work quickly after they have clearly been sick are just spreading the sickness to other workers as those “recovered” employees return too soon and proceed to crop dust the work place with live virus.


  107. Larry Ledwick says:

    Alternate mask production is growing to fill the demand (and grab some market share)
    These are probably simple cloth masks suitable for providing limited protection against large droplet contamination and to reduce likelihood of self inoculation by touching your face but not n-95 or better for use in medial treatment or quarantine facility.

  108. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting study on multi layer filter efficiency. It suggests that for a given weight of filter material it is more effective if the filter media are arraigned in multiple layers than if used in a single layer filter of the same weight.


    my perception is that Multi layer structure forces the particles to find and pass through independent passages which increases the likelihood that although the average pore size suggests it should pass all the filter layers, it is much more likely to encounter a pore configuration which will stop its passage or will adhere to fibers and quit moving through the filter as it negotiates multiple layers of filtration.

    This implies that if someone must fashion an expedient mask they should use as many layers of the available filter material as they can without excessive flow resistance. Since filtering is basically a statistical process, (ie a layer of X removes 50% of particle size Y) if you make a filter of 4 layers of that material you will have a filter efficiency of about 93.75% for that particle size.

  109. Compu Gator says:

    Might there be an advantage to rotating the axes of the example 4 layers of fabric, e.g., 0°, 30°, 60°, 90° (or prime numbers of degrees, chosen by the crypto folks)?

    I assume that industrial engineers have long since tested the effectiveness of layer combinations, some likely devised by mathematicians. If the necessary filtering material is expensive enough, e.g., platinum or gold, there are people who will care quite a lot about being able to omit a layer of expensive filtration to make or buy a product that can be just as effective as simple (-minded) but more expensive construction with additional layers. Even if the filtering material is inexpensive, the compelling issue might not be the cost of filters per se, but the recurring costs of replacement, including labor.

    If this seems too esoteric, consider consulting your local commercial brewer (about filtration principles, of course; what else could I have meant?).

  110. Octave Fiddler says:

    Will add ‘get an image hosting website’ to my personal to-do list.
    It is down below ‘get some non-virtual friends’, so don’t hold your breath.

    I took another look at the Hubei (Wuhan) data from the link on the johnshopkins page ‘Data Here’.
    I wanted to figure out the ‘incremental recovery rate;
    essentially % recoveries on an ongoing basis.

    The first problem is that data base has variable data rate, where some days have multiple entries , where either recoveries or deaths doesn’t change. That makes it too noisy to take the derivative to see the slope of the curve.
    Lazy way, I took differences between Sample N and sample N-5, to be sure to have changes in each parameter. (otherwise there are annoying zeros which are artifact. other approach would be to only look at one sample per day, but the dates were too wide to fit the columns…

    HERE is the ‘incremental fraction
    Recovered within the last 5 samples/ sum of deaths and recoveries in that timeframe.
    Incremental recov/Recov+ Death 0.23 0.27 0.09 0.17 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.62 0.38 0.21 0.44 0.42 0.63 0.61 0.55 0.64 0.62 0.61 0.62 0.70 0.72 0.81

    They are getting better and better at getting people though the crisis, it seems.
    The sum of other regions will be my next calculation.
    I haven’t heard any of this kind of reporting.


  111. o says:

    and the ‘incremental’ recovery rate for all of the Non-Hubei regions is very good.
    I chopped off the noisy first few points.
    Non-Hubei Incremental recov/(recov+death) 0.83 0.95 0.95 0.97 0.98 0.97 0.83 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99

    Here’s hoping the Hubei folks maintain their upward trajectory of % recovery, as they have a lot of cases which are less than 10 days old. Can they even maintain 80% as the case load increases exponentially?

    Again, these are ‘confirmed cases’ that were followed,
    and does not include ‘found dead outside the hospital’
    nor does not include ‘mild case unconfirmed.

    I make frequent mistakes, especially on spreadsheets.
    Do your own calculations and let me know if I’m Muy El Wrongo.

  112. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting look at the death toll from indirect evidence of work load at funeral homes and crematoriums.
    Beginning around Jan. 22, the number of dead bodies received by the government-operated funeral home has drastically increased—peaking at 127 bodies on Feb. 3, the official said. This is about four to five times the usual workload, he added.

    So what is 5x the normal death rate in Wuhan?
    In 2019, death rate for China was 7.3 per 1,000 people.
    ( https://knoema.com/atlas/China/Death-rate )
    Wuhan Population 2020 = 8,364,977
    ( http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/wuhan-population/ )

    That calculates out to a death rate for 2019 of about 61,000 per year
    5x that would be 305,000 per year or about 835 deaths per day.
    Jan 22 – Feb 8 = 9 days @ 835/day = 7515 to date (current death toll world wide is 806)
    So in Wuhan alone deaths are about 9.3x the official death toll if all those assumptions are valid.

    Since almost all those numbers come out of China right now I think a good estimate is that real death toll is greater than 10x the official death toll.


  113. Larry Ledwick says:

    That also implies that the official death rate of 0.021 is actually about 20%
    That is a scary number if true and the current rate of spread.

  114. Compu Gator says:

    I hope extending the discussion on improvising aerosol-filtration masks doesn’t contribute to losses of domestic tranquility, e.g.:

    “Whaddya mean, you cut your prototype improvised filtration mask out of my ‘ratty old T-shirt’!? ‘Ratty’!? That was my shirt from my dorm-floor’s uniform when we won the all-campus intramural football [*] championship back in my freshman year! Whassa matta with you, woman!?

    Note *: Which the Germans quite logically distinguish as “gridiron”. Or otherwise, whatever Chiefio’s international participants wish to construe as “football”. And altho’ my college club-team playing experience was quite limited, I would certainly include the Manly Sport of Rugby.

  115. p.g.sharrow says:

    If I were to consider making face masks I would use textured paper towels. I tried them and even 8 plies was breathable, disposable, and ready available. They have enough wet strength to be dependable as the moisture of your breath wets them. The texture gives the layering depth to trap things and magnify their surface area.

  116. Octave Fiddler says:

    and the ‘incremental’ recovery rate for all of the Non-Hubei regions is very good.
    I chopped off the noisy first few points.
    Non-Hubei Incremental recov/(recov+death) 0.83 0.95 0.95 0.97 0.98 0.97 0.83 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99

    So, the incremental ‘death rate’ for confirmed cases is a ‘bimodal distribution’ ; Hubei now at 20% and The Rest Of China at ~1%. Hubei domimates the data when they are combined as one, but they don’t seem to be the same.

    Here’s hoping the Hubei folks maintain their upward trajectory of incremental % recovery, as they have a lot of confirmed cases, (~20,000) which are less than 10 days old. Can they even maintain 80% as the case load increases exponentially? I guess no restrictions due to ‘informed consent’ or delays for ‘Investigational Device Exemptions’ approvals…

    Again, these are ‘confirmed cases’ that were followed,
    and does not include ‘found dead outside the hospital’
    nor does not include ‘mild case unconfirmed.

    I make frequent mistakes, especially on spreadsheets.
    Do your own calculations and let me know if I’m Muy El Wrongo.
    This is retry of a blown post stuck in moderation, please remove that other one.

  117. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well this might explain a few things.

    In current severe global emergency situation of 2019-nCov outbreak, it is imperative to identify vulnerable and susceptible groups for effective protection and care. Recently, studies found that 2019-nCov and SARS-nCov share the same receptor, ACE2. In this study, we analyzed four large-scale datasets of normal lung tissue to investigate the disparities related to race, age, gender and smoking status in ACE2 gene expression. No significant disparities in ACE2 gene expression were found between racial groups (Asian vs Caucasian), age groups (>60 vs <60) or gender groups (male vs female). However, we observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to non-smoker samples. This indicates the smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and thus smoking history should be considered in identifying susceptible population and standardizing treatment regimen.

  118. Larry Ledwick says:

    Re-post of this in view of the above data about work load in funeral homes in Wuhan


  119. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    9 February 2020 at 12:22 am

    Does ACE2 cause smoking? Does smoking cause ACE2?

    A researcher states: “We currently have no clue on the causality. We are looking at the ACE2 expression in populations with different smoking histories and will publish the results soon. -Guoshuai”

  120. Compu Gator says:

    Considering the country of this Coronavirus outbreak being infamously Godless Red China, might we fairly combine these possibilities?

    • Deaths that are highly plausibly from Coronavirus are not being counted because of various convenient exclusions from recording in gov’t official statistics, e.g.: Wuhan residents who are turned away from hospitals; or residents who are forcibly-quarantined within unrecorded buildings; or residents who manifested pneumonia early, and are thus not recorded as Coronavirus?
    • Horrendous air-pollution in Hubei (hypothetically) includes output of industrial garbage incinerators; and
    • Chinese gov’t has decreed and arranged transport for the pandemic’s dead to those incinerators under don’t-ask-don’t-tell (or else!)?

  121. Larry Ledwick says:

    Kelley Lee
    4 minutes ago
    Research by Guoshuai Cai (@UofSC) found “higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples” for SARS-nCOV outbreak which suggests “smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov.” Around 2/3 deaths from @coronavirus are male. 74% males and 8% females in China smoke.

  122. Larry Ledwick says:

    A famous Japanese quantity policy scholar told.
    “Estimated from the number of infected people on Japan charter aircraft, the number of infected people will be 70,000 ~ 290,000 in Wuhan alone.

    Even at the current pace (examination range), the number of infected people will increase for a while about 30 days, increment speed(acceleration) is unlikely to slow down.”

  123. Meglort says:

    Interesting and states what would appear to be possible.

  124. Larry Ledwick says:

    Business impacts due to 2019-nCoV are beginning to be identified.

    An item on face masks.


    One note here about mask, many of these posts about masks imply perfect protection or none – infection requires a certain minimum exposure that the immune system and the natural filtering abilities of your nose and airways cannot safely deal with. You don’t have to have 100% success at stopping all contamination. Good is better than none.

    I saw a post the other day that said face masks can reduce likelihood of infection by about 80%, so even less than ideal masks help and even if you do get an infection it will be less severe because your initial inoculation was smaller giving the body more time to deal with the onslaught of the replicating virus.

  125. Larry Ledwick says:

    Outline of personal protective equipment needs for health care workers.

    Totals outlined given the likely case load would have exhausted any reasonable plan for reserve stocks. The only practical solution right now is ramping up production and making do with what is currently available.

    Click to access novel-coronavirus-personal-protective-equipment-needs-healthcare-settings.pdf

  126. Larry Ledwick says:

    More on crematorium work load

  127. David A says:

    Compu gator, I consider all official nimbers, death rates, etc… to be misleading and not meaningful – FUBAR.

    We do not know. Considering how bad China’s economy is getting wacked by this, can we trust any nation to give bad news?

  128. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting use of modern online technology.

  129. Larry Ledwick says:

    This item suggests that China has nationalized all protective mask production their own government response to the 2019-nCoV outbreak.
    That is going to put a big crimp on mask supplies for other countries since China has a huge share of the market for this sort of product.

  130. Larry Ledwick says:
  131. Larry Ledwick says:

    Nigerian mystery disease kills in 48 hours and has killed 15 out of 104 known infections.



    I was just pondering the confluence of these sudden outbreaks and the quiet sun (ie low UV output), There have been some theories tossed about regarding “viruses from space” during quiet sun periods – no magic conspiracy or concern about ET bugs here, just connecting dots from things I have seen recently.

    Solar UV might be a significant factor in germ mortality and serve as a partial check on pandemic bugs.

  132. Larry Ledwick says:

    The FED comments on economic risk associated with 2019-nCoV to the world and US economy.


  133. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well it will be interesting if this Chinese naming convention sticks for 2019-nCov

    Q Research Notables
    2 minutes ago

    Chinese officials have given the novel strain of coronavirus (2019-nCov) a temporary name:
    Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP).

  134. Larry Ledwick says:

    Infection (official) rate of growth is declining but we don’t know if this is due to changes in population behavior (masks social distancing, quarantines etc.),better treatment protocols, or bad numbers from the government.

    Major updates looks like they are probably done for the evening.

    They have changed the way they plot the slope graph now, they split out main land China and other locations. Looking at the graphs the “not China” plot looks about like the “Mainland China” plot did about Jan 25 about 14 days ago.
    It will be interesting to see how that other plot develops.

  135. Larry Ledwick says:

    Then there is the crematorium data which implies a far bigger body count estimated at about 49,980 dead.

  136. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    9 February 2020 at 5:45 am

    If you don’t keep your regular customers supplied – they look for new vendors.

  137. M Simon says:


    We are sure this is all just a coincidence – Wuhan epicenter… Only P4 facility in China… A lab investigating bats infected with genetically engineered Coronavirus… Coronavirus infected Bats… Chimeric bio-engineered viruses…. and that is probably why The White House is now asking authorities to investigate the source of the disease.

    Of course, when Zero Hedge suggested the same thing, highlighting key personnel in the Wuhan lab that were publicly acknowledged as responsible for that research, we were immediately banned by Twitter. We look forward to reading Buzzfeed’s article decrying The White House for daring to ask questions about the origin of this deadly pandemic.

  138. Foyle says:

    Larry; 49000 dead from crematoriums over 17 days, when natural death rate would be something like 400/day or 7000 in same period for a population of 11million (though we know millions fled Wuhan as warning was given of impending quarrantine)

  139. J Martin says:

    What is a worst case scenario ? 25% global death toll ? A tragedy for those involved and their families, but would perhaps result in an improvement in quality of life for those who remain as many countries are heavily overpopulated.

  140. jim2 says:

    I don’t expect the scenario in China to play out in the US. They had no warning, and by the time they figured out how bad the virus is, they had too many people in the wild infected. Add this to poor sanitation, smoking, etc. and you have an uncontrollable situation. And as others have pointed out, spring is coming and the virus will subside and mutate.

    OTOH, we had warning. have good sanitation, and some of the best medical facilities around. We are quarantining people with the disease and people who MIGHT have the disease. Also, we don’t have nearly as many people who smoke and mostly aren’t Asian. I think this will pass the US and not become an epidemic here.

  141. Simon Derricutt says:

    Maybe worth noting that the death rate, the recovered rate, and the “infected” rate have different start times. I’d suspect that first we get infected, then there’s an incubation period, some die, and then later some are declared recovered. Based on that, the official “recovered” rate comes from an earlier (and thus smaller) cohort than the death rate, and the death rate comes from a smaller number than the infected rate. It would thus appear that the actual death rate is much higher than the 2% stated. The news from the crematoria (and the excess Sulphur compounds over Wuhan) certainly imply that the death rate is a lot higher than is being published or officially recorded. As Jim2 says, though, could be to do with local air quality, smoking, and genetic factors, and maybe the West won’t have the same problems.

    I recalled a bit of conversation here about cytokine storms and the possibility that Cannabis could reduce that, but couldn’t find it again. Any ideas on that from anyone (M. Simon and EMS were, I think, involved)? Could be useful to know. If that’s the reason people are dying, then having something to reduce that would be good.

    For face masks, possibly using one layer that’s been sprayed with either colloidal Silver or Copper could provide better protection (degrades the virus pretty quickly). A suitable easily-available Copper compound could be Bordeaux Mixture (Bouillie Bordelaise) which is available in shops dealing with plant care. If you’re using multiple layers for the filter, use an unsprayed layer on the inner to save breathing in dust. Risk from that is however pretty low.

    Judging from the sensitivity to temperature, looks like it won’t be a problem locally to me (SW France) but it’s still useful to have some preparations just in case. It would be somewhat odd to need a mask and goggles to go to town, but if needs must…. Today’s post from Jo Nova paints a pretty dire picture for the Chinese people, and things seem to be far worse there than the normal main stream media is saying. The official actions are severe, and maybe necessary.

  142. Larry Ledwick says:

    Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): Wuhan begins disinfecting the city twice a day to fight the epidemic https://www.chretiens.info/sante/coronavirus-2019-ncov-wuhan-commence-a-desinfecter-la-ville-deux-fois-par-jour-pour-lutter-contre-lepidemie/2020/02/09/13/20/

  143. Larry Ledwick says:

    Super-spreader event from a conference in Singapore brings virus to Europe.


  144. Larry Ledwick says:

  145. Larry Ledwick says:

    Heart breaking scenes continue to come out of China.

    What is happening in China now has happened a thousand times in other places and times as pandemic disease cut through the population like a scythe. It makes you ponder the desperation and hopelessness that humanity has endured from time to time. The haunting call this woman makes might just be the signature image of China and this epidemic.

  146. Larry Ledwick says:

    Africa braces for 2019-nCoV with 1 million Chinese in Africa it is almost certain it has already arrived, and will soon show itself as those seed infections take root and spread. There are signs already that it is beginning but no one is publicly talking about it.


  147. Larry Ledwick says:

    Lab capacity in Africa is ramping up for 2019-nCoV, so we should know soon how much penetration into Africa we already have but is not officially recognized.

  148. Larry Ledwick says:

    Many affected countries in Asia are now seeing empty store shelves as the combination of proactive buying and slowed deliveries exhaust shelf stocks.

  149. Larry Ledwick says:

    Countries are starting massive disinfection campaigns to slow the progress of the virus.

  150. Larry Ledwick says:

    Thailand looks to be set up for major outbreak, already has 32 cases in a country the size of California and it appears no one is taking protective actions.

  151. Larry Ledwick says:

    I this is in the Philippines .

  152. Larry Ledwick says:

  153. Larry Ledwick says:

    Reported cases vs air travel volume model analysis.

    Click to access 2020.02.04.20020495v1.full.pdf

  154. Larry Ledwick says:

    dr muge cevik
    2 hours ago
    15/ In this updated pre-print, using travel patterns in historical data and spread risk estimation, the authors assess the spread risk of #2019nCoV within and beyond China. #nCoV2019

    Click to access 2020.02.04.20020479v1.full.pdf

  155. Larry Ledwick says:

    Whole series of tweets which have links to above and other related papers and topics.

  156. Larry Ledwick says:

    Experts have blamed a form of systemic inflammatory response syndrome called “cytokine storm” for killing some novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-infected patients who were not very sick in the early stage of infection but eventually died of multiple organ failure, according to Chinese media reports.


  157. Larry Ledwick says:

    A series of tweets which show tallys of infections deaths etc. and some analysis of what he thinks it all means.

  158. Octave Fiddler says:

    Ok, the overnight (single day differential as of Feb 8) running recovery rate
    incremental ( recoveries/(recoveries+deaths) in Hubei (Wuhan) province slipped a bit, to 0.763, across 343 confirmed cases .

    Looking back, their confirmed case count increased by 371 between Jan 25-Jan26,

    So, that is about 12 days from confirmation to disposition (of the patients they are tracking and treating).
    In another 12 days, they will be faced with the daily incremental rate of 2147 newly confirmed cases that were added between Feb 7 and Feb 8., which is more than 6x throughput.
    These are the people who will be being added to the critical care phase of the illness.

    I don’t dispute the underestimation of total infections, which is relevant to likely rates of further contagion. This is just analysis of the ongoing hospitalization challenges for the officially confirmed cases; i.e. what to do when ever-increasing numbers of people are admitted to the care system.

    Also, that https://wuflu.live site has added more graphs if you click the ‘more graphs’ button;
    Infection Rates and Accelerations thereof. No Jerk plots yet…
    They are claiming negative accelerations of confirmed Infection rates; i.e. slowing down.
    This could easily be from temporary shortages of test supplies,
    Maybe this is to calm the world, while paying no attention to the people who die without being counted.

  159. Larry Ledwick says:

    This sounds promising (assuming virus shedding post recovery does not generate lots of new cases)


  160. M Simon says:

    Uh. Oh.
    If the Chinese believe their population is highly sensitized, they should say so, because the rest of the world will be more likely to send much-needed supplies. As I said, this could be due to chronic exposure to bat coronaviruses in a population with long-term peristant adjuvants in their bodies, such as aluminum. Or it could be due to past vaccine experiments. It really does not matter at this point except we need to know what we can expect as 2019-nCoV in the rest of the world.

    Yes, China, there are endonuclease sites in some bat coronaviruses that could be used to insert a variant of SARS spike protein, I checked.

    But here’s the rub – while everyone’s focused on “recombination in the wild” or “recombination in the lab” – what about “recombination is humans”?


  161. Larry Ledwick says:

    Diary of a girl in China, the despair and sadness is palpable. The people of China are going through a trial that will mark them for generations, I wish them well but I fear many more will write similar stories.

  162. Larry Ledwick says:

    Another reference on expression of ACE2 receptor genes.

  163. Gail Combs says:

    Larry L. and E.M.

    I just want you to know you have avid readers and fans at another site so you information is making it out into the ‘wild’

    Thank you so much for all the work you guys have done on this subject.

  164. Larry Ledwick says:

    Much appreciated Gail, makes the efforts worth while.

    Latest update is out on John’s Hopkins page:
    40,158 cases
    906 deaths
    3244 recovered

    These numbers will inch up a bit for the next few hours as odd bits get added in. Numbers usually stabilize around noon Wuhan China time in another 4 – 5 hours.

  165. cdquarles says:

    Cutting exposure doses will help. There is a dose-response curve for pathogens just like there is one for medicines or toxins. Cut the shedding to rates below the threshold should be equivalent to zero shedding.

  166. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting assessment on time line for peaks in cases in various parts of the world. This is not one monolithic epidemic, each country will follow a similar path but they will each be on their own time lines. Control efforts may not significantly limit the total number of cases (everyone in the world has never been exposed to this virus after all) but they may delay and stretch out the progression.

    That is actually a net win, because with time each country has time to assemble teams and train them gather information and of course they will learn from each other so the later cases will benefit from all the lessons learned in the previous weeks.

  167. l says:

    The Chinese are serious about their quarantine restrictions.


  168. Larry Ledwick says:

  169. Gail Combs says:

    Larry, you might find this thread interesting.
    See: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1223887384892313600.html

    Think someone is lying to you?

    First check to see if they bothered to add any variability whatsoever in the model they are using to supposedly report actual numbers from a complex system.
    Closer look at mortality rates calculated at -0, -3, -5, -7 Days.

    Since the virus takes between 7-10 Days to kill people, achieving steady state in the -0 Day mortality rate is only possible if a dramatic reduction in mortality occurred….

    This graph looking at the number of ID cases 7, 5 and 3 days prior to the death numbers.

  170. Gail Combs says:

    For clean-up, taking it that disposable towels may not be available, Walmart has a 10 pack of flour sack towels. If you can sew, or even if you can’t these can be cut up and hemmed to make reusable wipes. (Turn edges under twice to completely hide the raw edge so it does not unravel.
    Who cares if the stitches are not even.) Just wash in hot water with soap & Clorox bleach.

    In a pinch they could also be part of a washable face mask.

    See; https://www.walmart.com/ip/Mainstays-10-Piece-Flour-Sack-Kitchen-Towel-Set-White/46914083

  171. H.R. says:

    I’m still waiting on the next report on our daughter-in-law. She’s been home 7 days now.

    If she’s infected, we’re starting to approach the time she should start displaying symptoms.

    Oh, she did say that she slathered hand sanitizer on her airline seat. She thoroughly wiped down the area she would be occupying for the flight. Better than nothing, I guess.

    My son said he was surprised and disappointed that they didn’t whisk her away to a quarantine facility. They wouldn’t have been happy about it, but they are both more concerned for the population at large.

    She’s lucky in that it would have been no financial hardship for her. She can work anywhere she can plug in her computer and use her phone. But, others are returning and have to “get back to work.” Not so good for them.

  172. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting item here regarding what the personal protective equipment demand would be for a full blown pandemic response.

    H/T to Cyrus Tabrizi on twitter
    15 minutes ago

    Results and Conclusions. Assuming that 20% to 30% of the population would become ill, 1.7 to 3.5 billion respirators would be needed in the base case scenario, 2.6 to 4.3 billion in the intermediate demand scenario, and up to 7.3 billion in the maximum demand scenario (for all scenarios, between 0.1 and 0.4 billion surgical masks would be required for patients). For pandemics with a lower attack rate and fewer cases (eg, 2009-like pandemic), the number of respirators needed would be higher because the pandemic would have longer duration. Providing these numbers of respirators and surgical masks represents a logistic challenge for US public health agencies. Public health officials must urgently consider alternative use strategies for respirators and surgical masks during a pandemic that may vary from current practices.

  173. Larry Ledwick says:

    Amazon also has some of those old fashioned cotton flour sack towels, I have some in the linen closet. (intent was to replace paper towels if they became out of stock) like when I was a kid and had to dry the dishes.


  174. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    9 February 2020 at 10:27 pm

    That diary is a heartbreak. And now the diarist is sick too? The death rate has to be a lot higher than 2.1%.

    There is a chart above that shows the death rate with a 7 day lag was at some point above 60% If that was in fact true The Chinese panic is very understandable. Even in the latest numbers it is around 15%.

  175. M Simon says:

    From the comments at:


    China also doubled up on flu vaccinations this year and one study of DoD personnel reported on flu shot recipients being more prone to coronavirus infections.

    I never fell into the habit of getting flu shots. I keep my Vit C levels up. Not even colds.

  176. Gail Combs says:

    “I recalled a bit of conversation here about cytokine storms and the possibility that Cannabis could reduce that, but couldn’t find it again.”

    I have been archiving and passing on a lot of the info. from here and elsewhere.So here is some of that information:

    Nutritional Treatment of Coronavirus
    Orthomolecular Medicine News Service, Jan 30, 2020 recommends, VERY HIGH levels of Vitamin C.

    Please read the whole article. At the bottom are references and recommended reading.

    Science News: Why Cannabis Stems Inflammation

    ….The hemp plant contains over 450 different substances, only three of which are responsible for its intoxicating effect. They activate the two receptors in the body CB1 and CB2. Whilst the CB1 receptor in the central nervous system influences perception, the CB2 receptor in the tissue plays a crucial role in inhibiting inflammation. If the receptor is activated, the cell releases fewer pro-inflammatory signal substances, or cytokines. The scientists have now discovered that the substance beta-carophyllene, which composes between 12 and 35 percent of the cannabis plant’s essential oil, activates the CB2 receptor selectively.

    Unlike the three psychoactive substances, however, beta-carophyllene does not latch onto the CB1 receptor and consequently does not trigger the intoxicating effect….

    The non-toxic compound, which incidentally has been used as a food additive for many years, can be found in spice plants like oregano, basil, cinnamon and black pepper.….

    I will also add B12 …

    Anti-inflammatory Properties of Vitamin B12
    Apart from the important role that vitamin B12 plays in the functioning of the brain and nervous system and in red blood cell production, vitamin B12 also has an important role in the control of inflammation. Vitamin B12 deficiency has been implicated in several inflammatory diseases such as dementia, Alzheimer’s Disease, neuritis, multiple sclerosis and Parkinson’s disease. In addition it has also been found that administration of high doses of vitamin B12 may be beneficial in the treatment of chronic inflammatory conditions such as atopic dermatitis, eczema, psoriasis, osteoarthritis, diabetic neuropathy, fibromyalgia and Chronic Fatigue Syndrome.. There is also evidence that vitamin B12 has potential use in the treatment of chronic pain…..

    Remember Patriot Nurse: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWzrxc9MXQ4

    At ~ 2 minute mark she mentions underlying conditions that make the corona virus life threatening:
    Type I & II diabetes, High blood pressure and cardiovascular problems. She says those are chronic inflammation and therefore are more at risk from the Chorona virus. (Asthma is also chronic inflammation.)

  177. ossqss says:

    This site below still has the linear or logarithmic graphics if you choose them. I am not certain how relevant, but they are there.

    I would suspect the many variables of contact exceed mitigation in most contagious environments from carelessness. Think about it. You still have to touch clothing, shoes, masks, gloves, toilet handles, sink/door handles, even showering etc. after exposure/use in a contaminated environment. Do we really know how long this thing lasts on any surface? That answer is probably no at this point, regardless of what is prognosticated. I am certain of one thing. If this shows up in your community, things will go sideways quick. I have been through many hurricanes an prepared well in advance. Things are fine, until they aren’t from a supply standpoint. When the “clear the shelves” stage comes, it is typically too late to prepare. Word Up!


  178. Gail Combs says:

    A comment from another website (political) I now frequent. (sorry I did not keep the Id) I have added the scientific studies verifying the claims.

    A VERY over-simplified version of how viruses work, immune boosting, and what you can do NOW. This is esp helpful for at risk age groups, but good for everyone.

    Those spikes you see on virus pics allow it to puncture your cell wall and use the inside of your cell for food. Immune boosters help strengthen your cell wall, among other things.

    ELDERBERRY SYRUP – (Sambucus n.) Strengthens your cell walls, and is shown to bind to flu viruses, preventing them from invading cells and replicating.

    ASTRAGALUS – Helps increase the bodies production of interferon, and, reduces water retention.

    ECHINACEA p. – Provides inulin, which improves white cells ability to fight in part by increasing properdin, increases and activates white cells, signals the body to release interferon.

    VITAMIN C – Helps the red blood cells transport oxygen thru the body.

    Your lymphatic system runs along (mostly) the same paths that your blood vessels use. However, your lymph system doesn’t have a “pump” the way your blood vessels have your heart to move things along. Your lymphatic system helps with your blood system to drain out the debris from your dead cell walls, dead virus cell, and white cells, etc. Keeping your lymphatic system clear of debris is why you are told to drink lots of fluids when you get sick. That junk needs to be urinated out, to keep the lanes clear for more white cells to attack the virus. There are also simple exercises that “pump” your lymphatics. These are all online. If you catch a virus, there are more things to add that may help. So, if you get sick:

    INCREASE YOUR IMMUNE BOOSTERS!!! like, every couple hours or so.
    Drink LOT of fluids

    Add STEROIDS to help reduce inflammation if necessary. This can be prescribed or LICORICE HERB (not the candy, sorry!) can be used.

    NETTLES – Anti-histamine, anti-inflammatory, and diuretic. Is helpful with drying up runny noses, too!

    …Phenolic compounds could be defined as biologically active and herbal and have positive effects on health. The scientific researches are increased about the positive effect of phenolic compounds into coronary heart disease and high blood pressure, diabetes, cancer, inflammative, viral and parasitic disease, psychotic disorders

    DANDELION – A strong diuretic, has Vitamin C and potassium. (Most diuretics take out potassium along with the urine.)

    For fever, Tylenol or Motrin. Some people don’t do fever control, as the higher temperatures help kill the virus, but I have seen seizures happen from this, so I think fever control is a good thing. Also, if your body is fight aches and fever, those are cells which can be helping fight the virus instead.
    Again, very over-simplified, but some steps you can be taking NOW, and some herbs you can look into to see what may work for you and yours.

  179. jim2 says:

    According to the Johns Hopkins dashboard, 3 of the 12 US patients have recovered. That leaves us with 9 known and unresolved cases.

    Of course, there are the cruise ships and some quarantined from air travel. And maybe some unknown possibles.

  180. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting little chart and discussion on common disinfectants.


  181. Gail Combs says:

    The Johns Hopkins tracker had 12 cases in the USA. This is a slightly older article of interest to EM

    …There are now 11 cases of the new coronavirus confirmed in the United Sates. Six are in California, two in Illinois and one each in Arizona, Massachusetts and Washington state…

  182. Larry Ledwick says:

    A lot of folks are making a big deal about the decline in rate of growth of the confirmed cases and deaths in China.

    I suspect that sharp down turn that happened around the 4th is a combination of two things. First China began its quarantine of cities on Jan 23. the sharp down shift in the trend started on Feb 4 about 12 days after they started the severe quarantine.

    Maybe the only reason the death toll has slowed is everyone is staying inside and social distancing is simply slowing down the progression but not stopping it. Quarantines do that they tend to slow down growth and spread out the peak.

    As part of the quarantines they began literally locking people into their homes/apartments, for at home quarantine. The quarantines have been in place for almost 2 weeks now which incidentally is about the interval between when folks first get diagnosed as 2019-nCoV positive and when they start to have critical respiratory crisis that put them in ICU I wonder if they have a few thousand folks laying dead in their homes or near death that are getting left out of statistics right now?

    This could be false comfort.

  183. Larry Ledwick says:

    People are concerned because Chinese President Xi Jinping is missing in action. He is normally very high profile some suspect he is sick others think he is very busy managing the pandemic response and others think he is just dropping out of the lime light to avoid a close association with the out break and he will go back to high profile appearances when he can claim some big victory.

  184. Gail Combs says:

    Larry, maybe Xi Jinping is avoiding a combination of the withdrawal of the ‘Mandate from Heaven’ and the ‘Sacrifice of the king’

    This is for the ancient Celts
    “The king had great power but also great responsibility to ensure the prosperity of his people. Through his marriage on his inauguration to the goddess of the land, he was meant to guarantee her benevolence. He had to ensure the land was productive, so if the weather turned bad, or there was plague, cattle disease or losses in war, he was held personally responsible.”

    The Chinese ‘Mandate from Heaven”
    WIKI — “…a Chinese political and religious doctrine used since ancient times to justify the rule of the King or Emperor of China. According to this belief, Heaven (天, Tian) — which embodies the natural order and will of the universe — bestows the mandate on a just ruler of China, the “Son of Heaven” of the “Celestial Empire”. If a ruler was overthrown, this was interpreted as an indication that the ruler was unworthy, and had lost the mandate. It was also a common belief that natural disasters such as famine and flood were divine retributions bearing signs of Heaven’s displeasure with the ruler, so there would often be revolts following major disasters as the people saw these calamities as signs that the Mandate of Heaven had been withdrawn.[1]…”

  185. Power Grab says:

    On Twitter yesterday, I watched a video of what appeared to be 3 or 4 Chinese authorities in haz mat bunny suits dragging a family from their apartment. It looked like they didn’t have to work very hard to remove the father and mother, but they worked quite a while to get what appeared to be a teenaged son out of the apartment. He kept putting his feet on the doorjambs…they pulled off his shoes…by the time they got him out, his shirt had been removed as well. They carried him out bodily.
    = = = = =
    A time or two I have seen on social media parts of documents that appear to be the patent for the coronavirus, or some other coronavirus. Commenters say it was created in Canada and stolen by the Chinese. Actually, the codes in the dated lines read more to me like GB (Great Britain) and KR (Korea). Would a Canadian application be codes as belonging to Great Britain?

    The dates on the parts of the application that is showing are:

    2014-07-23 – Priority to GB1413020.7
    2014-07-23 – Priority to GBGB1413020.7A
    2015-07-23 – Application filed by [some text that looks Korean to me because of the round placeholder characters]
    2015-07-23 – Priority to PCT/GB2015/052124
    2017-03-22 – Publication of KR20170032441A
    Info: Patent citations (8), Cited by (1), Similar documents, Priority and Related Applications
    External links: Espacenet, Global Dossier, Discuss

    The present invention provides a method of screening for a biological, toxic, or potentially life-threatening condition comprising a variant replicase gene that codes for a multi-protein comprising a mutation in one or more of non-structural protein(s) (nsp) -10, nsp-14, nsp-Coronavirus [ampersand]lt; [forward slash] RTI [ampersand]gt; The coronavirus may be used as a vaccine for treating and [forward slash] or preventing a disease, e.g., infectious bronchitis, in a subject.

  186. Larry Ledwick says:

    February 7, 2020
    Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China


  187. Larry Ledwick says:

    Stats from WHO

  188. Larry Ledwick says:

    Beijing is now locked down no outsiders allowed to enter the city.


    TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As the Wuhan virus continues to spread across China unabated, Beijing authorities on Sunday evening (Feb. 9) announced that the city is being locked down.

    As the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) continues to rage across China, 80 cities have been locked down under “closed-off management” (封閉式管理) measures. On Sunday, Beijing authorities announced an “Epidemic prevention and control notice of strict closed community management” and declared that the city is going under lockdown (封城), reported the Beijing Daily.

  189. Larry Ledwick says:

    Some very interesting graphics comparing the current 2019-nCoV outbreak with prior major outbreaks. (note caveats that they are not directly comparable )


    BNO news tally – nice detailed breakdown by country.


  190. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    10 February 2020 at 5:06 am

    Locking down their capital is a huge loss of face. It also hampers (greatly) the Central Government.

    Things must be very serious.

  191. Larry Ledwick says:

    Infections on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship docked at Japan continue to rise now 60 additional cases to bring the count to 124 total confirmed cases. So far about 300 of the ships 3,711 passengers and crew have been tested.

    This is going to be a financial disaster for the Cruise ship line but a gold mine of case data for the researchers. Horrific holiday cruise for the passengers.

  192. Larry Ledwick says:

    San Francisco officials are meeting with Chinese community

    Jessie Liang
    4 minutes ago

    #SanFrancisco Dept. of #Emergency Management and Dept. of #PublicHealth meet with #Chinese #community leaders in a close-door meeting about the impact of the novel #coronavirus. #2019nCoV #中文 #Video @SF_emergency @SF_DPH

  193. Larry Ledwick says:

    Numbers have not changed much for a couple hours, tonight’s current tally on 2019-nCoV

  194. Larry Ledwick says:

    How long coronaviruses persist on surfaces and how to inactivate them

    Decontamination solutions that should work on 2019-nCoV because they work on similar viruses.


    The novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV is making headlines worldwide. Since there is no specific therapy against it, the prevention of infection is of particular importance in order to stem the epidemic. Like all droplet infections, the virus can spread via hands and surfaces that are frequently touched. “In hospitals, these can be door handles, for example, but also call buttons, bedside tables, bed frames and other objects in the direct vicinity of patients, which are often made of metal or plastic,” explains Professor Günter Kampf from the Institute of Hygiene and Environmental Medicine at the Greifswald University Hospital.

    Infectious on surfaces for up to nine days

    The evaluated studies, which focus on the pathogens Sars coronavirus and Mers coronavirus, showed, for example, that the viruses can persist on surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days. On average, they survive between four and five days. “Low temperature and high air humidity further increase their lifespan,” points out Kampf.

    Tests with various disinfection solutions showed that agents based on ethanol, hydrogen peroxide or sodium hypochlorite are effective against coronaviruses. If these agents are applied in appropriate concentrations, they reduce the number of infectious coronaviruses by four so-called log steps within one minute: this means, for example, from one million to only 100 pathogenic particles. If preparations based on other active ingredients are used, the product should be proven to be at least effective against enveloped viruses (“limited virucidal activity”). “As a rule, this is sufficient to significantly reduce the risk of infection,” explains Günter Kampf.

    Findings should be transferable to 2019-CoV

  195. Larry Ledwick says:

    Okay time for a black humor break.

  196. M Simon says:

    China Corona politics – China uncensored.

  197. Larry Ledwick says:

    56 seconds ago

    The director-general of the Department of Disease Control (DDC) said on Friday there were 615 people in Thailand suspected of carrying the 2019-nCoV coronavirus.

    Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
    ‏Director of WHO

    There’ve been some concerning instances of onward #2019nCoV spread from people with no travel history to [China]. The detection of a small number of cases may indicate more widespread transmission in other countries; in short, we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg.

  198. Larry Ledwick says:

    Loading bodies in a van

  199. M Simon says:

    Conditions in China. At about 12 minutes in they discuss cross infections from confining so many infected people together with uninfected people (or people with just the flu). – The quarantine centers.

    This disease is going to crush China.

    About 27 minutes total.

  200. Larry Ledwick says:

    List of US cases


    If any of the recent cases have secondary infections their incubation time should run out in the next few days, then depending on severity (ie are they symptomatic) the next likely cases will probably show up the middle to end of this week or early next week.

  201. M Simon says:

    Feb 4th – Johns Hopkins Containment will fail in the US

    About 5 minutes

  202. S.T. Taylor says:

    Been very busy with work – sorting out our supply chain with all the issues in China.

    Based upon first hand information from suppliers/friends/co-workers in China –

    Shanghai is seeing an increase in cases in the hospital – they have asked me to ship N95 masks since they can’t find any there. In fact – a friend whose wife is a doctor has asked if I can find any in bulk since the hospital is running low – you can easily see how desperate it can become when scarcity hits…

    Shanghai is supposedly opening for business this week – ports will start shipping later this week and next week.

    However, major areas west of Shanghai are still closed – Jiashan, Hangzhou – until later next week.

    The time frame for businesses reopening keeps being pushed back. This will obviously hit the world economy much harder than was initially thought.

    Supplier In Zhenghzhou area opened up a day early and was fined equivalent of $25k USD – they say that they are not doing too bad and ports in Tianjin are opening on time.

    So – based upon what I know of my travels there and what we have seen so far – I am afraid that Shanghai will be the next bloom if there is one – that is the major travel destination for alot of the people in Central China to travel to during CNY so I bet that is why we are hearing of increases there.

    Finally – non of my contacts in China believe the numbers being put out – they all believe it is much worse based upon friends and family sharing information. It will be very interesting to see if CCP can control the population as easily going forward after this finally blows over.

  203. E.M.Smith says:

    How about this for an idea:

    There was that ‘discussion of origin’ link, up thread, that linked nCoV to a vaccination attempt, based on vaccine work that showed enhanced lung problems among the SARS vaccinated animals.

    What if this part of China had experienced a mild form of SARS some years back, which ought to act very similar to vaccination. Now along comes nCoV and they all get the severe lung problems…

    It would explain the more extreme ilness seen in China vs elsewhere.

  204. A C Osborn says:

    Is this confirmation that the death toll is much higher than reported, re the up thread posts about Cremations.


  205. Larry Ledwick says:

    Morning all – the case tally has not changed much over night
    40,645 cases
    910 dead
    3578 recovered

    Total recovered is slowly approaching 4:1 it is now a 3.9319:1 over time the ratio between recovered and dead should stabilize at the true ratio. I suspect what we will see is of those sick enough to go in and get tested / hospitalized the death rate is near 25%, so the real case fatality rate is far higher than 2.1%, depending on how many have mild enough symptoms to never enter the medical system.

    This adds weight to those who have guessed the true CFR (case fatality rate) is between 15% and the official CFR or 2.1%.

    Going to start digging through twitter posts since I went to bed last night at midnight

  206. Larry Ledwick says:

    Troubling tid bit here:
    10 minutes ago
    (translated from portugese)
    This quarantine period info : o for 2019-nCoV has been 14 to 18 days because the incubation time is up to 14 days, but today’s news about a study indicates that the coronavirus incubation period can be up to 24 days –

    Karen Carman

    12 minutes ago
    MoreKaren Carman Retweeted William Yang
    Please note the incubation period for #2019nCoV has been studied more and is as long as 24 days.

    William Yang

    Verified account

    Follow Follow @WilliamYang120
    Breaking – Chinese expert Zhong Nan-Shan led a research on the clinical traits of the #coronavirus and concluded that the incubation period of the virus can go from 3 days to as long as 24 days. Previously, the longest incubation period was believed to be 14 days.


    Add to this the suspicion that “recovered” patients can still shed active virus when they are well enough to walk out of the hospital and you have a real containment nightmare.

  207. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    The possibility of a 24 day incubation has implications for self isolation lockdown to avoid it, too. A month is not enough.

    9 days on a surface.
    24 days incubation.
    2 days to recognize and get tested
    35 days AFTER “last case” announcement.
    Now realize it seems to take a long tine to recover, some folks are low or no symptom carriers, and you can easily get double that from one low symptom carrier at the start of the chain.

    So 70 to 100 days after it looks like it is ended. For almost everyone, that isn’t possible.

  208. Larry Ledwick says:

    New CDC guidance to employers on the 2019-nCoV outbreak


  209. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yep this is going to be a long cycle of containment. Wait until some sticky fingered 5 year old grabs a dirty door knob and imports the bug into a class room and all those little vectors take it home to mommy and daddy or to the day care center. It would take just one or two cases like that in the US to trigger a major explosion of cases like on the Japanese cruise liner.

  210. Larry Ledwick says:

    Efforts to ramp up research on bio hazards in the US.

    Super spreader events are the key trigger to sudden surges in cases.

  211. Larry Ledwick says:

    Good summary of the issues

    There are 4 unique characteristics of this #coronavirus #2019nCoV that make it particularly alarming and warrant extraordinary attention and caution. It is NOT VALID to compare it to the Flu or SARS or any other virus for that matter & doing so is irresponsible:

  212. Larry Ledwick says:

    The problems of calculating the true case fatality rate (CFR) early in an epidemic.
    You must account for the long time lags in each of the steps of evolution of the spread of the infection.


  213. Larry Ledwick says:

    Chart of current case statistics

    It is worthwhile to note that social conventions of how we share meals, perceptions of acceptable social distance (much closer in Asia than in much of America) can have profound effects on the true real world R0 of a disease.

    In Asia it is very common for everyone to eat out of the same dish, which is a nightmare for disease spread control.


    We do some of the same bad practices (shared dip bowls for chips and salsa, cheese dip dishes etc.) Teens sharing a soda pop, several people scooping pop corn or pretzels from a common bowl.

  214. Larry Ledwick says:

    Still seeing bits and pieces about the other outbreak in Nigeria which kills very quickly.


  215. Larry Ledwick says:

    Half of secondary infections occur during incubation period when the subject is asymptomatic or has very mild symptoms.


  216. Compu Gator says:

    Larry Ledwick [said] 10 February 2020 at 5:49 pm [GMT]
    [In the U.S.A.] We do some of the same bad practices (shared dip bowls for chips and salsa, cheese dip dishes etc.) Teens sharing a soda pop, several people scooping pop corn or pretzels from a common bowl.

    I have a single compound word for U.S. readers to ponder: tail-gate. Less formal hygiene than at a family Thanksgiving meal, altho’ the gathering may derive significant benefit from eating utensils typically being disposable. But plenty of shaking of hands and hugs at either. At least both occur on the far side of summer, where there are hopes of contagion being suppressed by prevailing temperatures. Never mind the high humidity for which the U.S. Southeast is notorious.

  217. Compu Gator says:

    Larry Ledwick [said] 10 February 2020 at 5:49 pm [GMT]
    [In the U.S.A.] We do some of the same bad practices (shared dip bowls for chips and salsa, cheese dip dishes etc.) Teens sharing a soda pop, several people scooping pop corn or pretzels from a common bowl.

    Yep. And that big basket or box of fried chicken, many hands seeking their favorites, e.g.: “Are the drumettes all gone already? Maybe some are hiding on the bottom?–Lemme see!” And inoculating the dip with viruses & bacteria by dipping already bitten pieces of chicken, veggies, or chips again into a shared dip? I suppose I’ll need to abstain from the really good guacamole that an in-law makes.

    Only in the last year or two did I begin abstaining from the bowls of peanuts or popcorn residing on table-tops or bar-tops. Especially after it had sunk in how some guys have flushed a plumbing fixture, then walked behind me quite obviously without stopping, to the restroom exit and its door handle (yyyuuuck! or eeeuuuwww!, as appropriate).

    It’s not rare for children to bite into something, then put it back to where they grabbed it. Alas, as with other matters of personal discipline, if a parent [†] can’t install habits of good personal hygiene in children by age 15 or 16, the parental cause is likely lost. And even with apparent parental success, regression is always possible (e.g., at least 1 of my seasoned siblings).

    Without the Coronavirus pandemic as justification, efforts to correct bad-hygiene habits of other people will continue to be socially frowned upon in the U.S.A., if not indignantly rejected. So many ordinary folks typically avoid actions that are nearly guaranteed to result in criticism as uncool: Gossip or overt complaints use words like “fussy”, “bitchy”, or pop-psych “controlling”. And words are that mild only for people who actually have some formal standing to attempt a correction. For everyone else, it’ll be ‘kill the messenger’!

    Will I be wearing a mask and disposable gloves [*] later this year while carving the extended-family Thanksgiving turkey? Even those people who don’t use their fingers to serve themselves will all be sequentially handling the same serving utensils.

    Note *: I should wear the butcher glove for the fork hand under the disposable glove, right?

    Note †: The surviving nuns remembered for their punitive rulers or blackboard pointers are literally an infirm or dying generation; modern parochial schools are administered by laypeople sensitized to legal consequences of accusations of “corporal punishment”, but I digress.

  218. M Simon says:

    Compu Gator says:
    10 February 2020 at 9:00 pm

    Chain mail partial glove on the left hand. Sharp knife in the right. You hold the hog snout with the chain mail fingers and slice with the very sharp knife.

    Was how we used to do it in the packing plant in ’62.

    Packing plants are refrigerated.

  219. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting story about the extent of the measures to lock down the outbreak regions.


  220. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yes remember when you were a kid and mom would tell everyone to wash their hands before dinner?

    Likely be an “awakening” about group hygiene practices over the next year or so. Instead of a large bowl of dip, individual custard cups of dip for each person at the table, as mentioned just a general consciousness reminder to everyone at the start of the meal would go a long way, like a dispenser of hand sanitizer to be used before you sit down to eat.

    Individual sealed packs of disposable table wear rather than a big pile in a bread pan.
    I was surprised to find that the disposable food service gloves are still readily available and really economical, so would go a long way toward solving some of those issues for a large group gatherings, along with abundant napkins etc.

  221. Larry Ledwick says:

    Video summary of current situation from the UK.

  222. M Simon says:

    Donald Trump Optimistic Spring Heat Will Kill Coronavirus

    Spring will kill the virus in April. In China.

    So. Rampaging on for at least one month. Maybe 2.

  223. Larry Ledwick says:

    Science Nerd
    5 minutes ago
    Science Nerd Retweeted MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
    Case Fatality Rate for #2019nCoV calculated to be 1-5% for outside China (range from different statistical models) and 18 % for Hubei. Differences in CFR could be due to: missing milder cases for Hubei and/or type of care for patients (e.g. hospitals overwhelmed)

  224. Larry Ledwick says:

    March AFB quarantine group set to be released on Tuesday 195 people have all tested negative over their stay.


  225. Larry Ledwick says:

    Comparison of curve fits for different types of curves applied to Wuhan outbreak data.

  226. Octave Fiddler says:

    The Data behind the Johns Hopkins page is moving to GITHUB., the googlesheet will be discontinued soon. They offer .csv files of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries. Signup needed to download.

    As of EOD Feb 9,

    Between Feb 8 and Feb 9, in Hubei (Wuhan) province, 91 died and 388 recovered; running recovery rate of 79.6.

    10565 (26% of ‘confirmed’ ) Chinese cases are outside the Hubei (Wuhan) province.
    There are doubtless more than that, but 10K is already admission of geographic spreading.
    This doesn’t speak well of the Chinese containment efforts.
    Draconian is moot if it is too late.

    About 376 known confirmed cases outside China. including 2 deaths, 26 recoveries.
    Besides the Cruise Ship with 135 cases, Singapore (43) Hong Kong (38), and Thailand (32) lead the pack in ‘geographic outreach’.
    I agree with that British Doc;
    if Japan can’t test 3000 potentially exposed people contained on a floating containment facility,
    we are in trouble.


  227. jim2 says:

    The US currently has had a total of 12 cases with 3 of those recovered.

  228. Larry Ledwick says:

    What is the real case and death count in China?
    He cited the capacity of crematories in Wuhan as an example. As reported by social media, there are 49 crematories in Wuhan alone that have been kept operating 24 hours a day, thus, they cremated 1,200 bodies every day. And they have worked on full capacity for 17 days. So he concluded that the mortality rate would far exceed the number updated by authorities. At 17 days cremating and estimated 1,200 bodies a day would be about 20,000 in Wuhan alone.

    Miles indicated that insider information exposed that the confirmed cases have reached 1.5 million from all over China and the death toll is 50,000 as of the date of the interview, Feb. 6.

    The very aggressive actions of the Chinese government make sense with these sorts of body counts.


  229. Larry Ledwick says:

    BNO Newsroom
    ‏Verified account

    MoreBNO Newsroom Retweeted BNO Newsroom
    Chinese media confirms that asymptomatic cases of coronavirus are now excluded from the government’s official count. This contradicts WHO guidelines. It’s unknown how many asymptomatic cases there are.

  230. Larry Ledwick says:

    Paper on how SARS secondary infections correlated with various variables.
    daily average temperature (DAT)
    daily average air pressure (DAAP)
    daily average relative humidity (DARH)
    daily average wind velocity (DAWV)


  231. Larry Ledwick says:

    Oops wrong thread belongs over here. (EM you can nuke the posts in the Lacquer Thinner thread)
    Food for thought, the lock down of Wuhan China occurred on Jan 23 2020. The people that flew out just before the lockdown are now ( 41-23=18 days removed from Wuhan)

    (assuming typical values and relatively asymptomatic patients)
    If they had the typical incubation time of about 7 days, then they have been infectious now for about 11 days, and the people they contacted are now past their incubation time also and have been infectious for 4 days.

    This map shows the 60,000 flights that left Wuhan in the period prior to lock down.

    If asymptomatic carriers are relatively common (like the British citizen who infected friends in a Swiss ski chalet) then we should in the next week or two start seeing outbreaks as those cases mature to the clearly sick symptomatic stage that happens some 10 – 14 days after infection for most patients.

    We will know in a few days, just like the Diamond Princess the secondary infections are about to start showing themselves as people get sick enough that they have to seek medical help.

    Keep fingers crossed the case counts are small and are properly handled by the local medical authorities.

  232. Larry Ledwick says:

    The unreliability of testing kits is going to be a big problem. San Diego patient had already been tested earlier and told his test was negative but on subsequent test tested positive.

  233. Larry Ledwick says:

    How the battle began. ICU staff face the brunt of the work load. Systems are seriously over loaded and only careful segregation of patients keep from infecting the whole hospital. Careless mixing causes rapid spread.

    Most patients who later die begin to crash at the end of week 2, most are either dead or out of the woods by week 3.


  234. Larry Ledwick says:

    100 residents are quarantined after two in their building (from different floors) are found to be infected with 2019-nCoV in Hongkong.


  235. M Simon says:

    Chinaplas 2020 postponed indefinitely by coronavirus

    The show is the largest plastics industry exhibition this year, and is one of the largest — if not the largest — globally. Last year’s Chinaplas, held in the city of Guangzhou, attracted an estimated 163,000 attendees and more than 3,600 exhibiting companies. The last time the show was in Shanghai, in 2018, it drew an estimated 180,000 attendees.

    The announcement follows announcements in late January that other trade shows, including Asiamold 2020 in Guangzhou and the Personal Care and Homecare Ingredients show in Shanghai, both scheduled for Feb. 26-28, would be postponed.

    Beyond China, IPF 2020, the Bangladesh International Plastics, Packaging and Printing trade show, originally scheduled for Feb. 12-15, has been postponed until June 4-7.

  236. Larry Ledwick says:

    Do you feel lucky Punk?

  237. Larry Ledwick says:

    Heads start to roll in China as official get dismissed for handling of the virus outbreak.


  238. Larry Ledwick says:

    virus spread by the fecal route is confirmed, patients with explosive diarrhea can create significant aerosol particles that help spread the disease.


  239. M Simon says:

    Coronavirus: Texans Quarantined in Homes After Return from China

    A News 4 San Antonio report claims the quarantine began at 1o a.m. on Sunday, and will continue over the next two weeks. The “self quarantine” does not refer to a voluntary restriction, but rather an agreement not to leave their homes in lieu of being detained elsewhere.

    These unnamed Texans join 91 other Americans in the county being monitored for coronavirus. The others are being isolated at Lackland Air Force Base after their flights home from China last week. Metro Health Director Dawn Emerick said that while the self-quarantined have shown no symptoms thus far, Metro Health continues to monitor them.

    “Per the President’s public health emergency declaration, and consistent with state and CDC protocols, the travelers are in a 14-day self quarantine since their departure from China and they are not showing symptoms,” she said in a statement.

  240. M Simon says:

    Vitamin D

    Epidemic influenza and vitamin D

    On the epidemiology of influenza

    New evidence that vitamin D prevents respiratory infections

    The role of vitamin D supplementation in the risk of developing pneumonia: three independent case–control studies

    Association between serum concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D and community-acquired pneumonia: a case-control study

    Vitamin D: its role and uses in immunology

    The seasonality of pandemic and non-pandemic influenzas: the roles of solar radiation and vitamin D

  241. Larry Ledwick says:

    I did it again posted in the wrong thread
    (trying to cook some dinner without burning it and posting is a bad idea)

    Tonight’s screen capture of the pandemic stats
    43,111 “official” cases
    1018 total deaths
    4072 total recovered
    Ratio of recovered to dead is “exactly 4”

  242. Larry Ledwick says:

    Some needed examination of our current level of medical capacity, and preparation for pandemic level medical needs.

    Part of the quiet preparation might be happening out of sight at the military quarantine locations. Rather than pushing the full medical load off on the civilian hospitals prepare combat hospital units to take a good share of the case load. One of the advantages of using military resources is it side steps many questions about getting the Congress to make timely actions to authorize changes in civil emergency preparedness laws and emergency medical disaster support.

    President Trump could do a lot of things under the color of his commander in chief roll and a declaration of an emergency with the stoke of a pen I suspect.


  243. E.M.Smith says:

    On the drive across the country, I saw zero protective behaviors.

    I started off testing things like gassing up the car with a gloved hand. It worked poorly. Getting the card from the wallet, into machine / pump, touch pad, back to wallet. It simply takes 2 hands on the same close objects. Cross contamination is inevitable. Using a phone ap or other touchless pay system is a good idea. Or have a dedicated card not in the wallet just for gas. Then gas up and just squirt rubbing alcohol on your hands when done.

    Similar issues with food. Mask must come off to eat. Everyone touches the counter, etc.

    Once in States with no cases, I just stopped trying.

    I could probably make it work with more effort, but it is a PITA.

  244. Julian Jones says:

    Larry Ledwick, 11 February 2020 @ 4:56 am :
    “virus spread by the fecal route ”
    Like many viruses, CV transmission via sewage and sewer infrastructure should be a concern; a possible reason for the widespread disinfection spraying in China (a vector well understood since the 1950s).
    Here in England we have approx 16,000 untreated sewer storm outfalls into rivers (and approx 20,000 weirs on the receiving watercourses), many more in USA, that disperse pathogenic aerosols into adjacent communities at times of high rainfall (a likely contributory reason for greater winter illnesses). Also the likely vector that Legionella, a common waterborne pathogen, can infect air conditioning systems.
    Here is an old presentation (for Gloucestershire NHS & Cranfield PMS) I gave for WFD Swift-Aquaterra, Barcelona, 2006, on the subject : http://bit.ly/2Jmqqtz

  245. Larry Ledwick says:

    Morning all little change in counts over night – current tally at 9:54 MDT is
    43,143 total official cases
    1018 dead
    4347 recovered

    They ( WHO) have announced the Official long term naming convention for 2019-nCoV
    They are going to go with COVID-19 as the official designation for the syndrome caused by this virus.

    Daniel Sinclair
    I should clarify! 2019-nCoV remains the name of the coronavirus strain, with SARS-CoV-2 a proposed future name for journals. COVID-19 is the disease caused by the virus, which China has itself dubbed NCP. They’ll be used interchangeably, but that’s the difference!

    9:46 AM – 11 Feb 2020

  246. Larry Ledwick says:

    I have also been tinkering with use of light weight gloves, I have some thin mechanic style gloves which work pretty well but the thin spandex type compression gloves seem to be the best for dexterity and ability to handle small things like car keys and credit cards.


    It is difficult to stay gloved 100% of the time but you can often do like food workers do and have one gloved hand and one free hand where you handle things touched by the random public with the gloved hand but handle your own credit card with your bare hand. That seems to be the best compromise I have come up with.

    I use one of those snap closed RFID credit card wallets and open it in the gloved hand pull out the credit card with my bare hand slide it in the card reader, then punch the buttons and handle the gas nozzle with the gloved hand. I also have a small bottle of hand sanitizer in the car center console so when you get back in the car, use the sanitizer on the bare hand then slide the glove back on seems to work pretty well once you get used to thinking in terms of cross contamination.

    100% safe work habits are really a pain in the butt but for this sort of situation (future full bore pandemic outbreak) you are probably looking at trying to achieve 50% – 90% reduction in possible hand contamination, not 100%. Obviously if you have a high risk profile (ie COPD, immune issues etc. You would work a lot harder on it. I also have a box of the thin disposable food service gloves in the car now, which for things like the gas station you can use while handling the gas pump and pushing the buttons on the pump them pull off and toss as you get back in the car. Except for the much lower friction of the gloves (poor grip) they allow pretty good dexterity although they being a bit over size can be a bit clumsy.

    Unless we get in a situation where you are stepping over bodies in the street type apocalypse, I don’t think 100% protection is either possible or desirable, you are just trying to reduce your exposure profile to reasonable limits, while still being able to do normal daily activities.

    My concern is having the necessary means if you find yourself in a high risk situation to take temporary protective actions to do what you need to do then get away from that risk.

    The food service gloves are very cheap and you can wad a couple of them up in your pocket and use them if necessary and toss them when done.


  247. Larry Ledwick says:

    Authorities concerned about how two residents in an apartment building who lived on different floors were exposed to 2019-nCoV, they worry the virus spread through the buildings plumbing system.
    (fairly far down in this series of items)

  248. Larry Ledwick says:

    A pretty good summary of the issues although little new information.



    There are still isolated bits of information coming out of Nigeria regarding their “mystery disease” outbreak but still no useful details. It appears to be a separate disease from COVID-19.


  249. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting item here on estimates of true case fatality rate and other factors


    Case fatality rate of severe cases estimated to be about 18%
    “The central estimates for CFR in cases detected in travellers outside mainland China lie in the range 1.2%-5.6% depending on the methods and data used.”

    Over all case fatality rate estimated to be about 1% (10x higher than seasonal flu)

    “The team estimate that people dying now from the virus on average first developed symptoms three weeks ago. This means the numbers of deaths reported today should be compared with the numbers of cases reported over two weeks ago, to gain insight into the true proportion of people who might die from their infection. ”

    [this of course implies that in areas where case counts are small you might see surges of cases every 2 – 3 weeks as initial cases mature and become symptomatic ]

    Only 1 in 19 being tested by Chinese so true case count could be 19x greater than official case count, (most of which will be less severe cases since only the severe are getting tested)

  250. Larry Ledwick says:

    It does not look good says doctor Liu Wen at Wuhan Hannan Red Cross Hospital

    [China needs to rotate in fresh people into the critically impacted hospitals, they are burning up their most experienced medical professionals, it this continues the system will collapse.]


  251. Larry Ledwick says:

  252. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    11 February 2020 at 7:36 am

    If we have enough surge capacity to cover everything that could go wrong – we couldn’t afford to do anything. A stockpile of oxygen generators might be possible. A stockpile of hospitals and doctors is not.

  253. Larry Ledwick says:

  254. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well the other side of that is you cannot afford to burn out your skilled people. That is what lost the Japanese the war in WWII they kept their best fighter pilots in the air until they got shot down rather than rotating them back to training new pilots.

    There is a point where protecting your skilled staff takes precedence over current medical needs.
    Good managers will recognize that burn out point and order some of their staff to take a break, then work their way through all the staff.

    In this case they should bring in military medics have them work side by side with the experienced doctors for a day or two then start some R&R cycles with their exhausted staff.

    It does you no good to kill all your best staff to save a handful of patients when by resting them in the long run you can save far more patients.

    Logistics and staff exhaustion are the two hard limits on emergency response, best deal with them both early.

  255. Larry Ledwick says:

    Funny way to handle the issue – enjoy

  256. M Simon says:

    At least 500 Wuhan medical staff infected with coronavirus

    He said he was not sure when he became infected since he treated many patients every day and the chance of getting infected was high.

    “The virus is too contagious. We did not have enough understanding about the virus,” he said.

  257. M Simon says:

    13th American diagnosed with coronavirus

    The American tested positive for the disease in San Diego, a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention spokesperson confirmed to ABC News on Monday evening. The patient had arrived from China on the first evacuation flight to Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego. The flight landed at the military base on Feb. 5 and the passengers were to be quarantined for 14 days.

  258. Larry Ledwick says:

    Hmmm thought I posted about that 13th patient in the US last night, but now I cannot find it, post might have gotten lost in spam folder or when my system rebooted on me last night while I was posting.

    I think that was also the post where I mentioned due to the long delay in symptom development, in countries that still have small case counts, we might see a periodic burst in cases every 2-3 weeks as those asymptomatic cases convert to symptomatic and get tested.

    For example cases 9-11 happened very quickly then there has been a quiet period here in the US. Perhaps case 13 is the first in the next surge.

    We should know in a few days if that is in fact what we will see, or if the quarantine steps have successfully prevented spread to new patients.

  259. Compu Gator says:

    Re: Julian Jones [http://www.water21.org.uk/] 11 February 2020 at 4:01 pm [GMT] [https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/06/6-feb-2019-ncov-corona-virus-outbreak/#comment-124679]

    Alas, prudence in response to the discovery of transmission of the Wuhan Coronavirus via diarrhea might demand that some activities that allow people to refresh their minds & spirits from the stresses of daily living, or put food on their tables, be put on hold for people who rely on marine recreation, at least along certain popular parts of the California coast. Why?

    Some brief background: When coastal communities in California (only some? most? all?) built sewage-treatment facilities, they saved money by building designs that failed to separate sewage from storm-water. Those might have been innocent decisions at the time; it’s easy to imagine them being promoted as “ingeniously money-saving combined systems” or somesuch. So in the local rainy season (usually Nov. or Dec. thro’ March or Apr.), the standard response to an imminent overflow was to use a bypass: an unalarmingly-named facility whose function is to dump untreated or slightly treated sewage directly into the ocean, sometimes shallower than recreational-diving depth limits (“eeeuuuwww!”). Such facilities are operationally violations of the federal Clean Water Act (CWA), and they would result in the unpleasantries of federal enforcement action by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). But Section 301(h) (1977) of the law included a process for local governments to obtain waivers that legally authorize the continuation of the operational violations. So many local governments sought waivers, using them to kick the can further down, um, the beach.

    I’ve been away from the issue for 2 decades, so I used “Beachapedia” to give me an updated summary [*]. Interested readers will need to visit pages either at, or based upon, whichever 1 of the 9 region offices of the EPA is responsible for a place of interest. So if interested in, e.g., California, one needs to look for Region 9 (h.q. in San Francisco): [https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/www3/region9/water/npdes/permits.html]

    Some California governments still depend on EPA waivers from the CWA to avoid Environmental Protection Agency enforcement action against them:
    • El Segundo “West Basin”, Playa Del Rey “Hyperion” (L.A. Co.);
    • Goleta (metro Santa Barbara);
    • Huntington Beach (Orange Co.);
    • Morro Bay/Cayucos (San Luis Obispo Co.);
    • San Diego Point Loma;
    • San Francisco “Southwest” and “Westside” (i.e., discharge into Pacific, not Bay).

    “Hyperion” (on the beach outside LAX), S.F. “Southwest, and extensively dived & surfed Pt. Loma are notorious as issues fought by surfers, mostly-scuba divers, and landlubber enviros since at least the mid 1980s, so California water-quality activists have been dealing with the county & municipal foot-dragging for at least 35 years.

    By their absence from the list, I assume that California’s orthoënviro-intensive municipalities Pacific Grove (Monterey Peninsula) and Santa Cruz have finally upgraded their sewage systems to operate without their waivers. Effin’ ’bout time!

    Within the (U.S.) Lower 48, 1 or more municipalities or counties in Maine, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire still operate under EPA CWA waivers (details would be under Region 1).

    Florida apparently has no municipalities or counties on the EPA CWA waivers list (details would be under Region 3 or 4–I forget which).

    Note *: I’m unfamiliar with “Beachapedia”, but am hoping that it’s sufficiently reliable on this topic [http://www.beachapedia.org/Waivers]. They must depend on EPA publications (including Web pages) for updated info, and that official material looks stale.

  260. Larry Ledwick says:

    That of course also applies to a half dozen other disease risks for cities like San Francisco that have been overly tolerant with public defecation by the homeless crowds.

    Sooner or later it will bite them hard.

  261. Larry Ledwick says:

    Analysis report on some COVID-19 cases

    It appears that when patients go into crisis it is very sudden.


  262. Julian Jones says:

    Compu Gator, 11 February 2020 @ 9:31 pm :
    I agree – possible case study : we had notorious UK childhood leukaemia clusters around new coastal nuclear facilities around time of their construction (eg Windscale, now Sellafield) that was anecdotally attributed to parental exposure to radiation. Subsequent studies concluded exposure to sewage viruses was the most likely cause, arising from inadequate sewage treatment serving the construction workers housing (similar to your suggestion).
    Not so likely I think from bathing in the cold seawater here, though possible; more likely via inhaled aerosols some way inland, from the spray generated by sewage contaminated waves on the beach.
    … as Larry suggests, many other pathogens also posing risks; some covered by vaccination now. But not only near coasts …

  263. Compu Gator says:

    Larry Ledwick [said] 11 February 2020 at 4:02 am [GMT]
    The unreliability of testing kits is going to be a big problem.


    Are the prevailing testing kits swabs for saliva, or what?

    Might testing (whether via kit or configuration of a lab-machine) that’s based on blood samples be much more reliable?

    I’m pondering the potential safety, thus ethical availability, of First-World blood supplies, e.g., in Florida. Not to be overly selfish about it, but such availability is quite important for treatment of the chronic disease that pounced unexpectedly on a member of my extended family.

    Perhaps availability of blood supplies will increase somewhat if fear of Coronavirus in large crowds reduces attendance at the theme megaparks, thus reducing severe trauma cases caused by tourists crashing into residents, or vice versa.

    Philosophical digression: Whether one is a hospital patient or visitor, nothing provides perspective on one’s own medical issues like hearing medevac choppers depart then later land on the hospital roof pad.

  264. Larry Ledwick says:

    Folks expecting to need blood might consider making arrangements for self transfusion where they donate their own blood which is then used later when they need it.

    I guess proper name is autologous blood transfusion.


  265. Larry Ledwick says:

    US Post office temporarily ceases deliveries to China and Hongkong.


    New paper estimating R0 for COVID-19

    I have heard several references that the tests are unreliable, I think the protocol is to take 3 different swabs, nasal, throat and one other but not positive it is rectal.

    Some of the doctors said they had to test some patients 2-3 times to get a positive test on patients who were clearly sick.

  266. Larry Ledwick says:

    The diamond princes is a cursed ship now I think

    Redbox Global

  267. Compu Gator says:

    Larry Ledwick [said] 11 February 2020 at 10:49 pm [GMT]
    Folks expecting to need blood might consider making arrangements for self transfusion where they donate their own blood which is then used later when they need it. I guess proper name is autologous blood transfusion.

    Thank you for your prompt suggestion.

    I regret that my extended-family member’s blood supply issue is that the unidentified but noncontagious chronic disease, one which I’m told is rather rare, makes the family member’s own blood fundamentally deficient. Its deficiencies never spontaneously improve. So there’s no advantage to stowing [*] one’s own deficient blood for some hypothetical future transfusion. The only reliable improvement, which even then is to a crucial quantity that remains worse than normal, is by mixing in fully healthy blood of a matching type from thus far unknown donors. A less-than-perfect treatment, because it incurs a separate set of risks.

    Oh! An additional complication is that all the siblings with compatible blood-types are disqualified from donating blood, by their prescriptions for a certain type of drugs, and maybe other factors of which I’m not aware (e.g., the drugs might be a surrogate factor for the disqualification of blood donations).

    Note *: Or “lagering”? Dang! Those details are so depressing. Maybe it’s time for a fermented adult beverage!

  268. Larry Ledwick says:


    I just wanted to thank China, the WHO and Twitter for doing a fantastic job protecting us from harmful information, trolls and fake news so we can relax and remember… it’s just the flu! You got this! We trust you. #coronavirus #COVID19

  269. Larry Ledwick says:

    Sorry to hear that option is not available, I thought of that contingency a bit after I made the post, but for people without such problems it would be a viable option if they were expecting surgery for example.

    The only other option along those lines is to go to some group like a local church and get a group of “trusted donors” to provide some donations dedicated to provide a safe supply so you are not getting blood from some random guy that walked into a sell your blood clinic off the street.

  270. Larry Ledwick says:

    Use of Vitamin C infusion to treat COVID-19 patients


  271. Larry Ledwick says:

    Houston we have a pandemic. – – if this is correct


  272. Nick Walsh says:

    I am concerned that Big Pharma controls any release of treatment information. The recent breakthrough in Seattle leads me to believe something I’ve suspected for a few weeks. There may be another treatment on the horizon!

  273. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ref note above about the high infectious rate they assert.

  274. Larry Ledwick says:

    If the true R0 value for 2019-nCoV is between 4.7 and 6.6 that puts it in the same catagory as polio, rubella and small pox for comparison.

    And it means that China is really pushing out cooked numbers.

  275. Larry Ledwick says:

    The US State Department have authorized the authorized voluntary departure of non-emergency personnel from the Hong Kong Consulate.

  276. Larry Ledwick says:

    Now they have renamed the virus itself also

    ICTV: The official name of the new coronavirus is SARS-CoV-2
    The International Committee on Virus Classification has announced that the virus, provisionally named 2019-nCoV (new coronavirus 2019), has been officially named SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronary Virus Type 2). Previously, the World Health Organization has been named COVID-19 by the disease caused by the virus.

    2019-nCoV = SARS-CoV-2
    The disease it causes is now named COVID-19

  277. billinoz says:

    Larry have you heard any recent news about Corona Virus in Thailand. Two friends flew there on Monday for a 10 day holiday in Chiang Mai. ( Not something I would be doing myself as there are already 25 diagnosed cases of COVID 19 there infected by Chinese from Wuhan etc. before the lockdown began..

  278. Larry Ledwick says:

    Thailand has 33 cases right now (+1 just today) and I saw a video clip from a street camera the other day that the public is acting like it is not a problem – no masks lots of people on the streets and typical tourist close contact crowds.

    I would be more worried about who I was flying with than folks on the street probably, as planes would tend to aggregate folks going to a lot of different places with unknowable intermediate stops unless it was a non-stop leg from a known relatively safe country.

  279. Larry Ledwick says:

    Lord Seiko
    2 minutes ago
    “Even patients who definitely have the disease only come back positive 30 per cent to 50 per cent of the time,” Prof Wang said. “Testing throat swabs (from potentially infected people) also returns a lot of false negatives.”

  280. Larry Ledwick says:

    Assessing the plausibility of subcritical transmission of 2019-nCoV in the United States

    Their assessment is basically with only 10 cases and no firm indication of subsequent transmission based on reasonable conservative assumptions – yes we can stop the spread in the US.

    But they have a lot of “it is assumed” or “if X is true” qualifiers.

    Short answer is – – if everything is rosy, yes we can stop it but we really have no clue yet until we get a bigger sample size and some actual data regarding transmission in this environment.


    Click to access 2020.02.08.20021311v1.full.pdf

    This looks a get your foot in the door, then they can publish a follow up paper when they get more data.

  281. Larry Ledwick says:

    Chinese officials now authorized to seize private property when necessary.
    There is supposed to be compensation but that is doubtful.


  282. Pingback: 11 Feb 2019-nCoV / SARS-CoV-2 Corona Virus Outbreak | Musings from the Chiefio

  283. billinoz says:

    Thanks Larry for that update on Thailand. Thye’ve been posting photos on Facebook and no, noone is using masks or gloves !
    I read that New Scientist article. It is schitzophrenic ! It mentions all the issues about the statistics being issued by the CCP government and then dismisses them as if they don’t matter.

    It’s good we have the far more accurate unbiased links you are posting !

  284. Larry Ledwick says:

    Putting my last screen capture for this thread here as of 2/11/2058

  285. Pingback: Covid-19 or 2019-nCoV, now named SARS-CoV-2  | pgtruspace's blog

  286. Steve Brown says:

    This site has regularly updated statistics about corona virus infection and deaths:

  287. Pingback: 16 Feb 2019-nCoV / SARS-CoV-2 / Covid-19 Corona Virus Outbreak | Musings from the Chiefio

  288. allenrizzi says:

    Anche nella mia #VAldiNon – Il #CoronaVirus è arrivato!

  289. Pingback: 6 Feb 2019-nCoV Corona Virus Outbreak — Musings from the Chiefio – MicrobiologyLearningForum

  290. Pingback: 6 Feb 2019-nCoV Corona Virus Outbreak — Musings from the Chiefio – Micahstover.com

  291. We are sacrificing our childrens sacrifice for what statistics suggest isn’t worse than any other flu season. Shame on us adults, saving our own skins while children are delivered up a future with freedom.


  292. Bill in Oz says:

    Nonsense ! And idiotic !

    It’s kids and younger folk who are mostly asymptomatic carriers of this virus and infecting others.

    Are all older folk supposed to allow themselves to be infected and die so the younger carriers can inherit ?

    Bugger That !

  293. Bill, the phrase “is the cure worse than the disease” is already very much part of the Corona Virus lexicon. This isn’t a point of view, it’s a feeling felt by many, an idea and morally sound if we consider that as adults we are basically destroying the future to save our own skins. It’s classically selfish.

  294. jim2 says:

    Don’t worry Ralph, the future will still come around, and our children and grand children will do fine. We’ll still leave them the house and our stuff, don’t ya know.

  295. E.M.Smith says:


    I’d rather my grandchildren had a future with grandparents in it, and with parents not suffering from long duration lung damage and needing their children to care for them.


    What has been destroyed? All the physical capital stock still exists. The actions being taken preserve more of the labor force. Nothing has gone away. Eventually we may get into bankruptcies, but even then companues can choose a chapter other than liquidation.

    All that has happened is that some labor time has been lost. Much of Europe takes August off for vacation. They do this every year, but without damage. Then, some account entries in banks are looking worse. The bailout package will make other computer ledger entries to fix that. Some very poor folks will have financial hits from loss of wages, but we have unemployment and related systems to fix that, plus “your check is in the mail”…

    In the end, there is no significant damage. Things will restart just fine and folks will have a lot of pent-up demand driving a big recovery. Some service providers, like hair salons, will have a permanent loss of a month or 2 of revenue, but many others, like car makers, will sell products with fairly constant replacement rates, so more sold to catch up. There will be a surge in movies, dinner out, event venues and such as folks will be hungry for filling that void in their lives.

    In the end, any impact will be miniscule when compared to other events we have endured such as: W.W. I, W.W. II, The Great Depression, The Spanush Flu, the 1957 Pandemic, and so much more.

    Taking a month off at home is not the end of the economy nor life as we know it. Not even close.

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