Political and Medical System Type Discussions of Covid-19 Pandemic

Just so that political or structure of healthcare system (like socialized vs not ) topics don’t distract from the main Covid-19 medical, technical, news, and spread discussion happening here:


But since I’m not real sure how to keep those things cleanly divided, I’m not going to be enforcing things and miscategorizing will not offend.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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72 Responses to Political and Medical System Type Discussions of Covid-19 Pandemic

  1. Compu Gator says:

    I’ve been wondering for the last few days what the Saudis will do about their annual international gathering of pilgrims at Mecca.

    Wikipedia say:
    §4 Pilgrimage
    The pilgrimage to Mecca attracts millions of Muslims from all over the world. There are two pilgrimages: the Hajj and the Umrah. The Hajj, the ‘greater’ pilgrimage is performed annually in Mecca and nearby sites. During the Hajj, several million people of varying nationalities worship in unison. Every adult, healthy Muslim who has the financial and physical capacity to travel to Mecca and can make arrangements for the care of their dependents during the trip, must perform the Hajj at least once in a lifetime. Umrah, the lesser pilgrimage, is not obligatory, but is recommended in the Qur’an.[87] Often, they perform the Umrah while visiting Al-Haram Mosque.
    §10.2 Demographics
    Population density in Mecca is very high. Most long-term residents of Mecca live in the Old City, and many work in the industry known locally as the Hajj Industry. Iyad Madani, Saudi Arabia’s minister for Hajj, was quoted as saying, “We never stop preparing for the Hajj.”[114] Year-round, pilgrims stream into the city to perform the rites of Umrah, and during the last weeks of Dhu al-Qi’dah, on average 4 million Muslims arrive in the city to take part in the rites known as Hajj.[115]

    The Hajj is scheduled annually according to the purely lunar calendar used by Muslims, so it rotates around the solar year.

    Wikipedia also give date [#]:
    [A.H.] 1441 = [A.D.] 2020, 30 July

    Considering that Hajj and the Umrah are international events of the purported “Religion of Peace“, and we deplorable kuffār have repeatedly been assured that violent fanatics are an insignificant minority in Islam (which of course, could not be an instance of taqiyyah), nothing could possibly go wrong [*], could it?

    Note #: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hajj#Timing_of_Hajj].
    Quoted (i.e., italicized) content above is from an easily inferred Web page: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mecca].

    Note *: I’ve been pondering this topic for a few days, but didn’t get enough motivation to draft it, until I saw that our hon’able leader had come so close to beating me to the point in the U.S. overnight: E.M.Smith [say] 23 February 2020 at 5:42 am [GMT] [https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/16/16-feb-2019-ncov-sars-cov-2-covid-19-corona-virus-outbreak/#comment-125459].

  2. E.M.Smith says:

    That July date ought to be about the global peak of the pandemic…

    Can the hajj be canceled? Physically or by religious law? Would the Shia be pissed at the Sunni cancelling their once in a lifetime scheduled trip?

    Something similar will hit the Catholics. The spouse just watched the Pope give a huge mass . How long until that’s problematic?…

  3. E.M.Smith says:

    Had not thought of this one, but ought to have….

    In addition to locking down whole towns, canceling football games and mass: Italy has a ban on dipping your hand in the Holy water.

    So Catholics and those with similar rituals risk excess spread from the wafers, the shared wine cup, AND all the folks dipping finger in the same water pool.

    Oh Dear….

  4. Another Ian says:

    “Coronavirus — life for some in Italy, Iran, South Korean has suddenly changed”


  5. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like they are sucking up all the slack in the daily systems and when that rope reaches the end lots of places are going to suddenly find themselves in a condition similar to Wuhan a few weeks ago.

    Lots of folks who used to point and laugh at conservative preppers are going to discover that the last laugh is on them.

  6. Larry Ledwick says:

    The interesting question about COVID-19 here in the US is, we have essentially zero effective monitoring of the public for it because current rules are overly restrictive and CDC refuses to even do a small sentinel sample of general public screening on people that do not meet their presumptive risk category.

    Although this sounds like that exact thing being tried on the QT

    Right now all testing goes back to CDC except the 3 states which mysteriously got good test kits when everyone else got useless kits.

    Are they building stocks of a new more reliable test that they can deploy in the future, or do they really want to be completely ignorant of the general population threat in the US?

    Lots of people are concerned about the lack of apparent action and reasonable safe guards that the public thinks they should be doing.


    See item at 1:43 am

    California, Nebraska and Illinois are currently the only three states able to do local testing, they seem to be a suspicious group of three highly liberal states that some how all got the good kits?

  7. E.M.Smith says:

    Thd report I saw yesterday said “one component” of the kit was defective and that they were “working on a replacement” for that component to fix the existing kits.

    As to why:

    IIRC, those three were the early cases and a quaranteen destination. I’d guess that a later shipment got a bum batch of a “component”.

  8. Gail Combs says:

    Maybe so they can scare people away from the polls this November and from President Trump’s rallies?

    Perhaps a method to actually infect the president?

    Remember the Chinese kept mum until AFTER they were to the White House and to Davos.

  9. E.M.Smith says:


    Low voter turnout would likely help Trump. Snowflakes are not willing to brave risk (or even unhappy words) while preppers are able to show up in hazmat gear and The Brave will brave it. Oh, and a lot of the smart ones will be signing up for mail in ballots now.

  10. Compu Gator says:

    E.M.Smith [say] 23 February 2020 at 8:31 pm [GMT][*]:
    In addition to locking down whole towns, canceling football games and mass: Italy has a ban on dipping your hand in the
    Holy water. So Catholics and those with similar rituals risk excess spread from the wafers, the shared wine cup [†], AND all the folks dipping finger in the same water pool.

    Within the last year or so, the more-or-less Catholic-focused news media have (already) reported the transmission of illness (so not CoV-2019) via standing “holy water” in Vatican-II-conformant (i.e., Novus Ordo) “Catholic” churches in the U.S.A. I’ve seen self-professed but poorly catechized “Catholics” who are so clueless that they dip their hands into the baptismal fonts, containing water that flowed over infants not yet toilet-trained, as if they are reservoirs of holy water. And that was in an ediface no less grand than the local cathedral, and I say eeeuuuwww!.

    Up not only next but also real soon: Ash Wednesday, which begins Lent, and falls on 26 February in 2020. It’s the application by priests of blessed ash (from burning the previous year’s Palm-Sunday sacramental palms) onto the bare foreheads of the devout. It’s observed by Catholics, and I think also by Anglicans (d.b.a. in U.S.A. as Episcopalians) and Lutherans.

    Note †: The “shared wine cup” is a Protestant antiquarian revival (promoted by Martin Luther, if memory serves). In the context of Roman Catholicism, it’s a Novus Ordo innovation that’s traceable to Vatican II. Genuinely traditional Catholicism does not include such a practice.

  11. E.M.Smith says:

    Yeah, spouse doing Ash Wed, at a small local church. She’s skipping the wine and finger dip for the crossing… then it’s TV Mass only for a while.

    Per baptismal water: uh, yeah…

  12. Compu Gator says:

    E.M.Smith [say] 23 February 2020 at 11:05 pm [GMT][*]:
    Um couple of points: [….] Watch the stereotyping. [….] Guten tag, y’all [….] Don’t limit yourself, or the rest of us. And yes, this ought to have been put in the politics thread.

    So now it is indeed here.

    In reply:
    Auch wirklich! Zwei kann diese Spiel spielen: Jetzt (ist) Abend, aber danke für sein Gedanke! I do wish I’d known about the Texas Germans (centered in New Braunfels?) when I made my journey back to Florida.
    • Louisiana French? Ich spreche nicht Froggisch Französisch! You forgot to mention the important aspect: The unique U.S. application of Napoleonic legal principles. Which reminds me that I really ought to rewarm & eat the undercooked crawfish boiled at a local brewpub that featured a Louisiana band on Friday night. And I do wish I’d known about the Abita Brewery when I made my journey back to Florida.
    • I’ve participated in an adventurous outing focused on the Chinese New-Year’s parade in S.F., led a dinner trip there, and shopped in the district’s food markets, bypassing their overly tolerant concept of freshness in seafood. I wish I had a video of a clerk trying to weigh very alive eels for a customer (on Stockton St. as I recall).
    • I’ve been to Solvang; I wish that we’d stopped there routinely on diving trips down[↓] to the Channel Islands.
    • “Hebrew”? Really now? I have and use one of the versions of the Gesenius line of Hebrew dictionaries, originally written to translate into Lutheran German, later edited into translation into English. But there’s been no reason to exhibit my efforts with it on your blog.
    • I confess struggling with the degenerate script of Arabic, but I’ve had reason to consult that bonus content provided by Gesenius. I don’t have enough years left to me to attempt his Syriac.
    • I also have and use dictionaries for translating from classical Greek and Russian (not only tsarist and Bolshevized, but also profane) into English.
    • I’m becoming increasingly fluent in the vocabulary of classical and Vulgate Latin; I’ve think I’ve already nailed down the classical grammar.

    E.M.Smith [say] 23 February 2020 at 11:05 pm [GMT][*]:
    The USA has NO national language. [….] Don’t limit yourself, or the rest of us.

    Really, now? Ban me from future posting herein if you feel that’s appropriate; it’s your blog. But really: You picked on the wrong guy.

    This being posted in the political topic, I’ll dare to assert: But it dayyam well should! The U.S.A. needs to become an a society officially dominated by citizens–and permanent residents–who are fluent and literate in English. This is the 21st Century, featuring an unselective welfare state drawing from depleted natural resources. It’s not the 18th Century of laissez faire governments, unrestricted immigration, and Manifest Destiny.

    As for “stereotyping“, this is yet another instance in which stereotypes are derived from observed reality: The majority of our immigrated Puerto Ricans, among whom I am increasingly immersed–“no habla Anglais”–plainly fail, regardless of whether you personally consider that an agreeable assessment.

    Note *: [https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/23/22-feb-2019-ncov-sars-cov-2-covid-19-corona-virus-pandemic/#comment-125533].

    Note ↓: What I call a past-tense adverb, because that’s no longer the direction from where I now live to the Channel Islands. I also believe in the legitimacy of past-tense nouns.

  13. akell2013 says:

    Just FYI, Compugator, German was the predominant language in San Antonio, as well, until WWI or so.

  14. E.M.Smith says:


    OK you’ve got some skilz. That’s not the point.

    I have one non-negotiable. Don’t insult people (I.e. play nice).

    So you insulted my family. Not nice.

    Think about it.

  15. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    23 February 2020 at 9:33 pm

    Nebraska is not a liberal State. At all. Probably more liberal than it used to be. So the grouping is odd and likely not political. Maybe just luck. Or shipping schedules? Or?

    I grew up in Omaha. 1950 to 1962. I still keep an eye on the place.

  16. M Simon says:

    @ss holes are connected to mouths. There is continuous skin connecting them. Be careful who you shake hands with.

  17. M Simon says:

    Another Ian says:
    24 February 2020 at 4:54 am

    “Current evidence on other coronavirus strains shows that while coronaviruses appear to be stable at low and freezing temperatures for a certain period, food hygiene and good food safety practices can prevent their transmission through food. Specifically, coronaviruses are thermolabile, which means that they are susceptible to normal cooking temperatures (70°C). Therefore, as a general rule, the consumption of raw or undercooked animal products should be avoided.

    Mike Bloomberg is running billboards that say Trump likes his steakes well done. Uh. Oh. .Trump knows more about eating steak than Bloomberg? Or U.S. Grant?

  18. M Simon says:

    I didn’t phrase that quite right Trump and US Grant know more about eating steak than Bloomberg.

  19. Larry Ledwick says:

    For some reason a lot of “smart people” think it is a sign of sophistication to eat their meat at dangerously cool temperatures. It proves they are macho men if they eat meat that is not properly cooked.
    Then they wonder why their beef is raised in a high antibiotic environment and want to do the same thing with “natural grass fed beef”



  20. Larry Ledwick says:

    It looks like the last effort to update pandemic response authorizations and all hazard preparations was by Senator Susan Brooks (R) in 2018 – it would probably where they will start if they need to fast track authorizations and authorities for COVID-19



  21. Gail Combs says:

    “…Then they wonder why their beef is raised in a high antibiotic environment and want to do the same thing with “natural grass fed beef”…”

    Actually factory farmed beef is givien antibiotics to keep them from getting sick since they are in a very high density environment that increases the likelihood of a ‘bug’ wiping out hundreds of cattle.

    A friend was a ‘cowboy’ whose job was riding through the herds of feedlot cattle looking for sick cows. He had a Tennesee Walking Horse who would actually pick out the sick cattle for him BEFORE he ever saw a sign of illness. These sick cattle would be culled ASAP!

    …The number of beef cattle on feedlots rose 5 percent from 2002 to 2012. Feedlot size grew even as the 2012 drought reduced total cattle numbers. The number of beef cattle on operations with at least 500 head grew from 11.6 million in 2002 to 12.1 million in 2012.

    IIRC the average size herd of family farms is ~ 60 cows. (Old Ag survey)
    (New computer, finally, but I lost a lot of my old files in the transfer — RATS!)

    The new census shows that most farms (aka family) have a herd size less than 100. The average per farm is now ~106 if you include the factory farms. (Hope I interperted the numbers correctly this time.)

    (Bottom chart)

    Click to access st99_1_0013_0014.pdf

  22. E.M.Smith says:

    It was also discovered that, even absent any disease, animals fed antibiotics added weight faster.
    On the order of 10% faster. Suddenly it became common practice to feed antibiotics… I’m sure a few percent profit gain was not a big concideration… /sarc;

  23. E.M.Smith says:

    Per eating rare meat:

    I’ve done it. Even steak Tartar… (raw is interesting I guess…)

    Having done it, I’m much more fond of “just turned grey”. Then no bugs to deal with and a “nuttier” flavor (more Maillard reaction).

    Having delt with various worms in various animals of various species, I like my meat dead and not red.

    Only real exception to the “cook it all like pork” is fish. It cooks much faster and fewer of their “bugs and worms” survive in mammals, so I trust the sushi chef and California law that demands certain worm host species be frozen (salmon). Fish I buy either takes a trip through the freezer or gets cooked through.

  24. Larry Ledwick says:

    There is a lot to be said for Gramma’s old fashioned fork tender pot roast which has simmered for hours on a low heat in roaster full of vegetables.

  25. E.M.Smith says:

    There is a similar beef dish. Sunday Roast. More of a braise…

    Mum would take a big chuck roast (one of the cheapest cuts) and put it in a roasting pan (best if surface heated to set off the Maillard reaction / browned). Then add onions, celery, carrots, turnips optionally and sometimes other vegetables (peas, green beans). A bit of liquid added (water, vinegar? I’m not sure) Season it (salt, pepper, bay leaf,?), cover, then into the oven at 275 F to 300 F (and off we would go to church / Sunday school)

    How long it cooked depended on the sermon, but it was about 3 hours IIRC, depending on overruns of pastors… but it didn’t seem to matter.

    Returning home was a glorious experience. Hungry and house full of aromas… I especially liked it ladled on top of bread. “Fork Tender” ? Oh yeah….

  26. Larry Ledwick says:

    You just described essentially the identical dish and method.

    3 – 4 pound Chuck roast – dusted with flour, then seared in a hot pan and a couple tablespoons of fat
    Remove from heat after searing and add 1/2 cup water or as needed

    Cook 2.5 hours or so on low heat tightly covered

    In our house always :
    About 30-45 min before serving add veggie
    carrot pieces, a large onion (or 2 medium onions quartered then broken into segments.
    celery, and a couple large potatoes cut into large pieces.

    Season with salt and pepper.
    Basically beef pot roast page 203 in the “plaid” Better Homes and Gardens Cook book.

  27. E.M.Smith says:

    Very similar.


    IIRC a Tbls or 2 of vinegar
    Bay leaf
    Vegetables in the whole time
    I don’t remember any flour
    Vegetable mix varies, w/ ‘neeps, rutabaga, peas,…

  28. Compu Gator says:

    Because it’s no longer related to the Coronavirus, I posted my response to E.M.’s accusation that I insulted his family instead to the current W.O.O.D. topic:
    “Compu Gator [said] 25 February 2020 at 12:01 am [EDT]”. [https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/23/w-o-o-d-23-february-2020/#comment-125599].

    Note *: “E.M.Smith [said] 24 February 2020 at 4:10 am [GMT]”. [https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/23/political-and-medical-system-type-discussions-of-covid-19-pandemic/#comment-125550].

  29. Gail Combs says:

    “A bit of liquid added (water, vinegar? I’m not sure) “

    I use a decent cooking wine… Wine or vinegar are decent tenderizers.

    I like my beef medium rare, on the other hand it makes a trip through the freezer and I try to buy straight from a farm I know.

    The biggest problem is the new ‘Food Safety Modernization Act’ that has the big corporations doing the testing and the USDA checking paperwork instead of carcasses for disease like they used to. Also they relaxed the regs so you can wash the feces off the meat and feed it to humans instead of making dog food out of the carcass you just messed up by cutting into the intestines by mistake.

  30. M Simon says:

    Gail Combs says:
    25 February 2020 at 2:07 am

    Regulations aren’t everything.

    I worked in a packing house one summer after high school and before the US Navy (’63). A pallet of meat was Black Tagged. I didn’t know the reason. As soon as the inspector was gone the tag was removed, the meat washed down and off to the shipping docks.

    What really keeps things semi-honest is lawsuits for when things go bad.

  31. Gail Combs says:

    “…What really keeps things semi-honest is lawsuits for when things go bad…..”

    AMEN! And also an HONEST upper management.

    I have a degree in Chemistry and ASQ certification as a Quality Engineer. When upper management would back me our quality was excellent and the dishonest got fired ASAP. In other companies I was the one to be fired or I left because they wanted my signature certifying CRAP product met spec.

    I could probably write a book on the food safety saga and how the Ag Cartel & the US bureaucrats conspired to make our food a lot less safe.

    I did a graph of data from the CDC showing the new HACCP regs DOUBLED the food borne disease. I provided it to a group that took it before Congress. You should have seen the CDC trying to dance their way out of their OWN statistics!

    The graph showed the three years before the new regs and the three years after. The jump was consistent and dramatic. It did not matter we STILL got the ‘New Improved’ methods, along with the pathogens shoved down our throats.

  32. E.M.Smith says:

    Decades back, a friend got fired from National Semiconductor for not following orders (to certify mil spec testing of untested parts). Hard time finding a job for abouf a year. THEN it hit the news N.S. was cheating… and it became a feature in interviews… and he got a better job.

  33. M Simon says:

    Limbaugh: Coronavirus Being ‘Weaponized’ to Bring Down Trump

    None of the Rush fans commenting could explain why the Chinese would destroy their economy to get Trump. The Chinese were panicking I was told. Over what was never explained.

  34. E.M.Smith says:

    Rush is just wrong.

  35. M Simon says:

    Our President says this. Has he heard of the missing/defective test kits?

    Donald Trump: Coronavirus ‘Very Much Under Control’ in United States

  36. E.M.Smith says:

    The defective kits gave “indeterminant” as the result, so were not trusted in decisions. In the USA, so far, the virus IS apparently under control.

    Were there a growing pocket somewhere, there would be a load of folks showing up in some hospital with viral pneumonia of unknown source / type (I.e. flu kit saying not flu). That’s not happening.

    Now that does not mean I think it will stay under control, or that the CDC is handling this right, or that there aren’t a few cases incubating somewhere. Tenerife had it “under control” until one Italian Doctor took a vacation there. Now it has 1000 visitors to quaranteen. That kind of thing can, and likely will, happen here.

    Just not happened yet.

    Oh, and I think you have the wrong link for the Trump statement.

  37. David A says:

    Gail says, ” I did a graph of data from the CDC showing the new HACCP regs DOUBLED the food borne disease. I provided it to a group that took it before Congress. You should have seen the CDC trying to dance their way out of their OWN statistics!”

    Can you share a cliff notes version if what was done?

    Regarding POTUS comments. I think we have no idea what is happening behind the scenes. We know every department of our government is, to some degree, in a state of civil war.

    When the nation’s that border Iran shut down their borders over 29 coronavirus positive ( official numbers) then we know the numbers are bogus. We do not know the battles behind the scene with our own CDC, our own ” resistance” in the State department, and what steps and procedures are being fought over.

    We do know that panic is almost as dangerous as the virus, and can shut down a national economy in about one to two weeks.
    With that reality it us understandable that POTUS to take a public position of optimism.

    The left will try to crucify him no matter what.

  38. Gail Combs says:

    Limbaugh: Coronavirus Being ‘Weaponized’ to Bring Down Trump

    That is just typical Never let a crisis go to waste

    The Left is already yammering about how horribly Trump is handling the situation. Never mind he is stuck with Obama ‘RESIST’ embeds.

  39. Gail Combs says:

    The CDC Director, is appointed by the president and does not require Senate approval. However the 29 department heads, the entire CDC management team, is Obama Senior Executive Service who are immune to firing.

    For example Nancy Messonnier moved to the director job of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases in April of 2016.

  40. Gail Combs says:

    David A.
    “Can you share a cliff notes version if what was done?”

    John Munsell explains it (We used to exchange e-mail)

    From about the middle (The rest is worth reading too.)

    Q: You’ve been very vocal about your belief that HACCP [Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points] systems employed by the meat industry are ‘a hoax.’ If you were writing the meat safety rules, what would they look like?

    A: Number one, HACCP was advertised as being science-based, and it is not. HACCP was designed by Pillsbury 20-30 years ago. They were making fully-cooked, ready-to-eat food for the astronaut program and it had to be guaranteed safe. Well, those were highly-processed, fully-cooked ready-to-eat-foods–the pathogens would be cooked out–they all had a real “kill step.”

    Well, the USDA saw the HACCP program and thought, ‘Gee, that sounds really good. Lets apply that meat inspection.’ The problem is the vast majority of what we process in meat plants is not fully-cooked, ready-to-eat, it is raw.

    The USDA shouldn’t use the term HACCP unless the products they are working with are fully cooked.

    Number two, when the agency required the industry to implement HACCP, the agency said that under the program the USDA’s role would be hands-off.

    That is an absolute disaster.

    The USDA cannot be hands-off.

    Under the transition to HACCP, the USDA knowingly acquiesced its authority back to the industry. It’s an absolute disaster waiting to happen.

    The natural long-term consequences of the agency adopting a hands-off, non-involvement role is ongoing outbreaks and recurring recalls all the time now.

    HACCP cannot work in the raw meat industry.

    I really think that meat inspection should be moved from the USDA, and that a separate agency should be created to perform inspection of not only meat and poultry but also produce, which is currently assigned to the FDA….

    I took the CDC data directly off their website and SHOWED that John was correct. HACCP was a complete disaster. You can not have the food industry self-inspect.

    There is a lot more to it like Stan Painter’s testimony before congress that his Union Members who were doing the inspecting were threatened and he was put on leave for standing up for them.

    It (the recall of Hallmark/Westland Meat) highlights one of the problems that we have attempted to raise with the agency ever since 1996 when the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) inspection system was put in place. There seems to be too much reliance on an honor system for the industry to police itself. While the USDA investigation is still on going at Hallmark/Westland, a couple of facts have emerged that point to a system that can be gamed by those who want to break the law. It (HACCP) shifted the responsibility for food safety over to the companies . http://domesticpolicy.oversight.house.gov/documents/20080418113258.pdf

    More recent:
    U.S. Food Inspectors Union Charges USDA Compromising Safety

    This is a 2015 article PRAISING HACCP
    The comments are scathing.

  41. David A says:

    Thanks Gail!

  42. M Simon says:

    The correct link:

    Donald Trump: Coronavirus ‘Very Much Under Control’ in United States

    And a new one:

    Limbaugh: Media Are ‘Reporting on the Coronavirus as They Hope It Evolves’

    As to under control. You tell me. UI Champagne let about 1,000 students from China decide if they wanted to self quarantine or not. My wife is particularly annoyed about that as our daughter is a recent graduate.

    It is under control in respect of a hump off a 40 story building. We have reached the first floor and so far no accident is in evidence. So all good.

    I’m not seeing “under control”. I’m seeing “not yet harmed by our mistakes”.

  43. E.M.Smith says:

    A 45 minute audio only podcast on stock markets, Federal / Central Banks, the plunge, and likely causes and futures. IMHO, these guys have it right.

    Synopsis: Having over supported markets into big bubble territory, the Fed then started to reduce support in the face of a real supply chain problem, triggering the plunge. This could be the start of a major correction, or The Fed might dump in even more money in one last hurrah to kick it into next year (past the election and hopefully past Covid-19).

    I’ll be doing a stock chart workup now that The Fed is almost painted into a corner and can’t keep artificially supporting things long term.

  44. E.M.Smith says:

    San Francisco, without any known cases, declared a state of emergency to ‘prepare’ given the number of non China outbreaks. So I’m putting the link under politics…


  45. Gail Combs says:

    “San Francisco, without any known cases…”
    I think those would be any positive lab tests made public.

    Any bets the hospitals are seeing ‘Clinically Diagnosed’ cases of Wuhan virus and are getting upset?

    And what about a sudden increase in deaths in the homeless camps?

    Remember the edit from CDC is ONLY know connections to China get a lab test and at this point the USA is well beyond that territory. Also Nancy Messonnier of CDC seems to be in the ‘get Trump by any means camp’ and there could certainly be some back channel communications going on.

    When it comes to Nancy, I am smelling a bigger and bigger rat.

  46. E.M.Smith says:

    There is also the “presumptive case” standard. Viral pnumonia, negative infuenza test, lung xray showing issues.

    IF this were in the wild here in numbers, hospitals and their staff would be shouting about it. They aren’t. It could be here in 1s and 2s, like S.Korea a week or two ago, and suddenly blow up big. So I think the S.F. Politicians just wanted to make a PR stunt about their preparedness plans, and dust off their center and get it cleaned up for shakedown early.

    I suppise we could also be like Iran. In denial. But no evidence of that. No extra ambulance runs (we’re near them and hear when they head out). No excess funerals. Not hearing about ICU bookings up, or crowder ERs. IFF there’s a stealth outbreak, it would have to be in the incubation stage, and that clock started a long time ago….

    This thing goes from one or two to a dozen dead in a week or two. I think we would have noticed.

  47. M Simon says:

    Coronavirus: US outbreak now inevitable, leading American health official warns

    ‘It is not so much a question of if, but when,’ says Nancy Messonnier of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention

    ‘Data over the last week has raised our expectation that we are going to have community spread here,’ she says

    Testifying at a Senate budget hearing on Tuesday, Azar faced tough questions about his agency’s emergency request for US$2.5 billion to fight the outbreak.

    Senator Richard Shelby, the Republican chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, described the amount as a “lowball” request.


    Asked about the criticism the administration was facing about its preparedness, Messonnier, a 25-year veteran of the CDC, said the agency was “never going to ever be able to be so completely prepared that we’re prepared for any inevitability”.

    “I continue to hope that in the end, we’ll look back and feel like we are overprepared,” she said. “That is a better place to be than being underprepared.”


    It looks like Republicans plan to flood the problem with money., It is after all an election year.

    And Gail – from this article it seems the head of the CDC is just stating the obvious. I’m not seeing an anti-Trump bias. Perhaps you have links.

  48. M Simon says:

    Gail – I found the discussion of the CDC head at.
    I will add my comments to that.

  49. Another Ian says:


    Gail Combs says:
    26 February 2020 at 4:03 am

    “Odd Coincidence – Rogue CDC Official Pushing Coronavirus Panic Button is Rod Rosenstein’s Sister…”


  50. Another Ian says:

    “How the Coronavirus Revealed Authoritarianism’s Fatal Flaw”


    Via SDA

  51. David A says:

    The ROW has China to observe as an example of how fast a pandemic can shut down an economy. I am curious about how fast it can shut down a real estate market.

    My 93 year old Dad took out a reverse mortgage. ( I only heard about it after the fact) Now he is considering buying it back as he can no longer care for a large house and 1/2 acre, and will be going into an in-between assisted living situation. At today’s prices, he can buy it back, and turn around and sell it for about 900,000 which would net about 150 k, if things go well. He is in San Diego county, a very stretched market propped up by foreign buyers. My concern is that given the time to do the buy back, fix the house up, and sell it, the entire market could turn fast enough to make your head spin. First all foreign buyers stop buying, and, as the virus rapidly progresses, most local potential buyers become job scared, major purchase scared, and housing valuations, already way beyond what local incomes can afford, turn on a dime and rapidly take that equity and turn it into a loss. ( Personally there is zero chance I would jump into the market at this time.)

    Any thoughts? What has happened to real-estate in China?

  52. llanfar says:

    An interesting take on the effects of 5G and how it relates to Coronavirus – 57 minutes

  53. H.R. says:

    M Simon: “It looks like Republicans plan to flood the problem with money.”

    President Trump asked for $2.5 billion to address COVID-19 related expenditures. The GOP wants to authorize $4 billion, and the Dems want to spend $8.5 billion.

    I have a feeling that Trump has a good handle on costs and that’s about what it will take for test kits, extra meds, some vaccine research and development, quarantine facilities, and whatnot. I’m pretty sure the House representatives know it’s a pretty good number, too.

    All of that extra money asked for by the Swamp Creatures will be directed to cronies, with the accompanying kickbacks to the corrupt members of the House and Senate, i.e., nearly all of them. It shows just how much of ‘Government Waste’ isn’t waste but how much is stolen from taxpayers.

    “$1 for thee, and $3 for me.”

  54. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A.:

    Based only on my intuition, not any analysis, I’d say you either sell inside a month duration (“flip” it as is) or you sell it 6 month to a year from now.

    ATM you still have a large block of blissfully unaware. IMHO that ends over March. Then you need a recovery that starts about June and accelerates for several months.

    Personally, I’ve scrubbed sell & move plans until we find out who lives and who dies; and to avoid exposure to folks for a few months.

  55. David A says:

    Thanks E.M. The good news on the reverse mortgage is it can sell like any mortgage, one shot deal: he sells, reverse mortgage company is paid off as part of escrow instructions, so if someone bites, it sells.

  56. Gail Combs says:

    Daughn put together this for one of her articles:
    (I had asked her to look at the economics because that is not my field at all.)

    Impact of COVID-19 on China’s Economy:

    China has thrown billions into their local banks and reduced ratio of cash reserves to lending, and China was low on USD reserves due to tariff war with USA. The Chinese central bank plans to pump $22 billion into the economy amid reports that the coronavirus or COVD19 will lower the expected growth of China’s economy from 2.1% to 1.2%. It’s likely to be far worse.

    Feb 20th, Goldman Sachs announces Coronavirus expected to impact up to 1% of GDP about a trillion dollars globally, market sinks 300 points https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaH79AEXMf8

    Feb 24th, market opens down 997 points, begins slow slog back on fears of Coronavirus spreading outside China.

    February 25th, another 900+ points, down. Over-reaction and media pushing fear.

    Feb 20th, Proctor and Gamble (owns Yum brands) announces coronavirus will negatively impact Q1 revenue and earnings. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaH79AEXMf8

    Feb 20th – 34 Members of a church in South Korea have tested positive for Coronavirus, US Army shutting down portion of base there, theaters and commissary. Update on Feb 24th – over 800 people in South Korea test positive. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaH79AEXMf8

    February 26 – Over 1800 infected in South Korea, per Laura Ingraham interview with Americans in South Korea. Towns the size of Kansas City and no traffic on streets.

    February 26th, per Laura Ingraham Show, over 800,000 people in South Korea calling for impeachment of President Moon…… because he did not shut down the border with China fast enough. (Guess President Trump is looking pretty smart)

    Adidas and Reebok in Germany reporting sales down 90% in China. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaH79AEXMf8

    Auto Sales in China, down 92% in February, according to Gordan Chang/FOX Biz.

    Coal usage in China is down 50%. China gets 70% of electricity production from coal…. per Professor Christopher Balding, Fulbright Univ in Saigon, Vietnam – one of the world’s leading authorities on REAL measurement of China’s economy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYG8nglcx_o

    Estate sales almost completely shut down. Gov’t revenue is highly dependent on real estate tax on sales. In a city of 20 million, we might see 5-10 sales a day. Professor Christopher Balding, Fulbright Univ in Saigon, Vietnam – one of the world’s leading authorities on REAL measurement of China’s economy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYG8nglcx_o

    Local Transportation cars/trains running at 15-20% of normal, China economy flat-lining. Professor Christopher Balding, Fulbright Univ in Saigon, Vietnam – one of the world’s leading authorities on REAL measurement of China’s economy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYG8nglcx_o

    Food Inflation up 10%, pork inflation up 100%. One of the biggest fears in China is famine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYG8nglcx_o

    Amazon taking drastic action to get materials out of China and hold steady on Supply Chain (per Fox Biz, February 24th)

    Toy Manufacturers concerned about Christmas items (last of our concerns right now)

    Containers already in route to USA, carrying medical supplies, latex gloves, masks, surgical kits, etc., ordered returned to China. (FOX Biz Feb 24th)

    Yield on the 10yr US Treasury bond almost hits all time low at 1.37% (Feb 24th) as foreign investors flood into safety of US Treasuries

    Oil prices down, on report of oil use DOWN in China(Feb 24th), we knew it weeks ago.

    Local Chinese business are reporting only 3 weeks of cash on hand

    How many factory workers can survive 6 weeks without a paycheck?

    Layoffs have begun in China to save the businesses

    Chinese students in the USA report they cannot return home because mom/dad can’t afford to bring them home (not working), even if they could get a flight.

    Hotel occupancy in Hong Kong is in single digits https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1Hud-ijzEo

    20% of Hong Kong restaurants expected to fail. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1Hud-ijzEo

    January Chinese auto sales are down 20%+

    Lumens (the measurement of light) at night from satellites over China is down 30-35% year over year https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1Hud-ijzEo

    Railroad traffic, measured by satellite is almost at a standstill https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BvyBTMBR5c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1Hud-ijzEo

    Reefer Units (a container which carries refrigerated goods) is plugged in when it arrives at port to maintain temperature. As of today, there are no more “plug-ins” available in the entire country.

    Shipping is at a standstill. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BvyBTMBR5c

    Oil shipments have shut down. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BvyBTMBR5c

    Approximately 80% of China’s export economy is shut down.

    Farmers are having problems getting trucks to take their food supplies into towns for deliver…… system shutdown.

    Apple missed quarterly earnings in the USA and forecasts delays in delivery.
    Under pressure from leadership, the Apple factory reopened…. but only 10% of the workforce showed up for duty. Other province governors have barred companies from reopening.

    China agreed to “half” their tariffs on US goods, looking for economic relief from the USA

    Japan’s economy contracted 1.6% as they face Coronavirus (and a dumb idea about imposing a higher local sales tax more responsible for Japan lag in economy than COVID-19)

    South Korea shut down their Hyundai plant due to lack of parts manufactured in China.
    Statistics and information coming out of China are highly questionable.

    Feb 24th, northern Italy shuts down. Milan described as a “ghost town”. Venice Carnival is cancelled. Schools, museums, theaters, religious events, all closed until March 1st, and re-assess. 55% of Italy’s GDP comes from this region.

  57. Compu Gator says:

    Gail Combs [said] 27 February 2020 at 7:38 pm [GMT]:
    I get the feeling President Trump got angry at the excuses made by the FDA and CDC and that is why he just put VP Mike Pence in charge. Notice a day later they are shipping out the test kits that piece of garbage, Nancy Messonnier, just said were not ready and weren’t a real priority. I am willing to bet someone just got a major chunk taken out of her ass. Notice that President Trump acted like a boss.
    Never Criticize In Public. Doesn’t mean he didn’t ha[n]d a few people their heads in private.

    Whatsoever Obama executive orders giveth, Trump executive orders can taketh away, or so it seems ought to be true. But if Pesident Trump is hamstrung by that invention of the SES during the Carter Administration, plausibly making it untouchable by executive order, perhaps he could reässign Dr. Messonnier as Special U.S. Envoy to Wuhan? And declare her essential personnel, so she can’t bail out on her own initiative. The law might require that he maintain her exalted SES rank and pay-grade. But as the saying goes, “no time like the present”. We need ground-truth on those implausible Chinese stats. Send her now!

  58. David A says:

    I agree the President cannot take a pessimistic tone. Yet he way soft sold this today. Perspective consideration; the deep state aspects of our health care and CDC, like every aspect of the federal government, want P. Trump out. They are political statist first, last, and to the core. In retrospect they plan all the time.

    Remember that intially the CDC and WHO soft sold this as well. Larry from Fabius Maximus, posting at WUWT, bought this soft sell 100 percent.

    Our patriotic President is human. He is subject to confirmation bias, so he very much desires the soft sale to be true. Notice in the transcript President Trump mentioned he was surprised at how many die from the flu every year, and he compared this to the flu several times in different context. Who sold him that story.? He was being fed that story.

    Just as P. Trump is articulating the same soft sale that the CDC and WHO perpetuated, their tone is dramatically changing to a more ominious note. At the same time the CDC and the California health buracracy completely botched the California case and highlighted the incredible testing deficiencies. And the Dems are screaming for more money, now hyping a real crisis.

    Weather creating a crisis, or just exploiting one, the scenario is, IMV, purposely set to make the President look deeply wrong on this.

    Now he is not defenseless if this blows up. He can show and articulate exactly what he was shown by the Obama experts. Also, his policies, no open borders, early shut down of travel from China, bring strategic industry home, all bode well to policies that minimize the Coronavirus. He can show how democratic players in the CDC and California health system gaffed the testing, and resisted his travel restrictions. And he put Pence in Charge?

  59. philjourdan says:

    I acquired 15oz of gold recently (my mother’s estate – I bought what my siblings were going to sell). In the past month, it has gone up 10%. I know gold is a zero sum game, but it is nice to see it is partially compensating for the stock loses. The market correction is being blamed on the virus, but I think that is only part of it. It was the catalyst to start the correction, but the correction was due.

    I also think that it is over corrected now. Only time will tell.

  60. Gail Combs says:

    E.M. I think someone heard you…

    And they complain about President Trump?

  61. Gail Combs says:


  62. Compu Gator says:

    This article seems not to have been swept up yet in the voracious appetite for CoV-19-politics information by readers of the Chiefio blog. The author counts this article as counts this as “3000 words”:

    Timeline: The Regulations—and Regulators—That Delayed Coronavirus Testing
    There have been three major regulatory barriers so far.
    Alec Stapp ⟨·⟩ Mar 20 ⟨2020⟩
    Alec Stapp is the director of technology policy at the Progressive Policy Institute.


    The link above provides much better access than its serialization as later condensed to squeeze it thro’ Twitter in pieces (gaaack!).

    Note †: “Progressive Policy Institute”!? Rather inauspicious, but the article seems credible & worthwhile for most readers here.

  63. Compu Gator says:

    Ooops! Should be <https://thedispatch.com/p/timeline-the-regulationsand-regulatorsthat>.

    The suspiciously abrupt end to the URL is correct, however.

  64. ossqss says:

    Gator, just cut and paste links and everything for that matter. It is all there, you don’t need to recreate with any HTML*.

    FWIW, I saw my first flying squirrel here near SRQ after 30+ years here tonight, and I can qualify as a RedNeck from Florida deep woods experience ( Since 1986). HR can attest. It was in my backyard in a Palm tree. Go figure ;-)

    I did not let the dog eat it. Just so you know.

  65. H.R. says:

    @Ossqss – Well how about that! A flying squirrel. His name isn’t Rocky, by any chance, is it?

    Keep your eyes peeled for a moose.

  66. Compu Gator says:

    ossqss [said] 24 March 2020 at 3:31 am [GMT]:
    just cut and paste links [….]

    It was not the usual simple case for links, for which I always copy & paste for reliability [×]. But as I indicated, I found the original via some kind of compilation of tweets that were serialized to squeeze a 3000-word article thro’ Twitter in a dozen-or-so pieces (gaaack again!). It identified the original source as <thedispatch.com>, and Firefox teased me with a pop-up of the URL for that original article, but in effect refused,/b> to do a “Copy link location” that would give me a URL at <thedispatch.com>. Instead, it kept giving me an unwanted URL at Twitter. So I had to do an old-fashioned “copy”. Eyeball the pop-up; type some of it; eyeball it again; type more; repeat until finished. It was obviously too late at night for me to correctly reconstruct the URL syntax (I omitted the “//”).

    ossqss [said] 24 March 2020 at 3:31 am [GMT]:
    just cut and paste [….] everything for that matter. It is all there [….]

    I try to be a good netizen, and to me that includes not blatantly violating copyrights by copying & posting entire articles from on line onto the Web-sites of other people [†]. Here, it would be our leader E.M. who would be on the legal bulls-eye. Fair use can be a useful defense once you become a defendant in a law-suit, but the goal should be to avoid, um, legal entanglements that make you into a defendant.

    ossqss [said] 24 March 2020 at 3:31 am [GMT]:
    [….] you don’t need to recreate with any HTML*.

    I have no idea what you’re trying to recommend, or what you intended the solo ‘*’ to signify. Did you forget to include a footnote explaining yourself?

    Note †: I know of a personally owned & operated BBS-like site where certain never-banned members routinely embed images that are plainly marked as copyrighted property of Getty Images. That corporation is notorious for legal predation on small-scale and even personal-hobby Web sites for copyright infringement lawsuits eventually settled for thousands of dollars. Whether we approve of a legal system that allows such cases is irrelevant herein. The BBS owner & operator about whom I’m worried is a head-of-family with ordinary income and a wife and more-than-average number of children.

    Note ×: I still don’t know why, even realizing that it was then also late at night, my recent usual copy & paste failed to get me a link to <www.propublica.org> that was usable in WordPress. Now if readers will excuse me, I’m overdue for some coffee.

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